In this weekend’s edition of Saturday Down South’s parlay of the week, I’ll be including 4 lines from those 3 games to make up my last pre-Playoff parlay. Coming off a win last weekend during Rivalry Week, I’m more confident than ever that after 3 long months of falling 1 pick short in countless parlay efforts, I’ve finally got a feel for this season.

As always, odds are provided by BetMGM. 

Leg 1: Texas Tech money line (-550) over BYU

Just a few weeks back when I picked this very matchup, I went with the Cougars (+10) to keep it close against the Red Raiders in Lubbock, and it didn’t take long for Joey McGuire, Jacob Rodriguez and the entire Texas Tech roster to make me feel like a fool. Teach clearly outclassed BYU in a 29-7 romp that kick-started Rodriguez’s well-deserved Heisman Trophy campaign, and for the record, I know Rodriguez isn’t going to win the Heisman, but I do hope he gets an invite to New York City. Defensive players deserve more Heisman love! And hey, with another performance like he had against BYU back on November 8, that might be enough for J-Rod to bust into the group of finalists.

Anyway, I just don’t know if BYU has enough offensive firepower to hang around in this game. Last time around I speculated that BYU’s ground game would be steady enough to keep the Cougars close and keep the Texas Tech crowd out of the game. BYU rushed 27 times for 67 yards. Once again, I looked like a fool.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me, can’t get fooled again.

Leg 2: Georgia -2.5 (-110) over Alabama

Here’s what I wrote back in late September when Georgia and Alabama faced off in a highly-anticipated regular season matchup.

“I lost real-world money on this game last season, backing Georgia and feeling downright giddy after the first 15 minutes of action. Then I had to watch a football game turn into a horror movie, seeing the Bulldogs let a 30-7 halftime lead slip away against the Crimson Tide in Kalen DeBoer‘s first game in SEC play. But this game ain’t in Tuscaloosa, and I can’t see Kirby Smart letting his team drop a second straight game to Bama.”

Turns out in this instance, I could be fooled again. I backed Georgia and the Tide rolled right into Athens and earned a hard-fought 24-21 win over the favored Bulldogs. And now here I am, at almost the same exact number — Georgia was a 3-point favorite ahead of their regular season matchup — and I’m backing the Bulldogs again. This raises a logical follow-up question… why?

Well, since that late September showdown, Georgia is 8-0 and has won by an average margin of 15.8 points per game. The Bulldogs are rounding into shape while it seems like Alabama might be sputtering toward the finishing line. A loss at home against Oklahoma, narrow wins over South Carolina and Auburn. This just feels like a team that’s losing steam, and it’ll be interesting to see if Bama loses what the CFP selection committee will do with them.

Leg 3: Under 47.5 (-105) in Ohio State vs. Indiana

I know both of these offenses are capable of putting points on the board in a hurry, but these are the 2 best defenses we’ve seen all season long, and it’s not just the eye test that says so. Combined, the Buckeyes and Hoosiers defenses allow a combined 18 points per game. Nobody has cracked the 20s against Ohio State, and Indiana has allowed 3 touchdowns in a game just once this season. This feels like a 23-17, 20-16, 21-19 sort of game to me, in which case, we’ve got at least a touchdown to spare.

Leg 4: Ohio State money line (-200) over Indiana

I initially had Ohio State -4 as the pick here, giving us a little bit tastier of a payday for this Championship Weekend parlay. But as I thought about potential outcomes for this game, specifically as it relates to the final score, I kept coming back to one specific result… Ohio State 21, Indiana 19. Now surely, you could ask, “Well why not just take Indiana +4 then?” To that, I admittedly don’t have a great rebuttal, but this is what I will say:

We’re just a month and a half and a few games away from this going down as an historically great Ohio State team. A program that won the national title in 2024 and went on to win a second consecutive title the following year on the back of a defense that could go down as one of the greatest to ever step on the field. I don’t think I’m too far out on a limb to say that this is in play.

With that said, and I recognize that there are some biases at work here, I just can’t imagine that the Indiana Hoosiers are the team that puts an end to that unbeaten quest. Maybe this game is tight, maybe Indiana covers that 4-point margin, but I just can’t see the Buckeyes losing here.

Total: +561

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Was that a result of not being burdened by an early week column? We’ll find out soon enough, because I’m back with my weekly awards, and I’ll be back with another parlay for Conference Championship Weekend as well.

Biggest Winner of the Weekend: LSU Tigers

Yes, LSU lost its regular-season finale to the Oklahoma Sooners, and yes, the Bayou Bengals finished their regular season with just 7 wins, but on Sunday, the 4-time national champions made an acquisition that will move them closer to title No. 5. With Lane Kiffin deciding to leave Ole Miss for LSU, the Tigers have officially moved their chips to the center of the table, ponying up big money to bring in a head coach who has proven he can win big in the SEC to Baton Rouge.

I’ll go on record right now: before this decade is over, Kiffin will have delivered a National Championship to LSU. Mark it down, write it in Sharpie, Geaux Tigers.

Biggest Loser of the Weekend: Auburn Tigers

So not only did Auburn fail to knock Alabama out of the SEC Championship Game — and potentially the College Football Playoff — in the Iron Bowl, but then the big hire the school made to inspire confidence and optimism within its fanbase was Alex Golesh, who has led South Florida to just a 23-15 record in 3 seasons despite having more NIL resources and geographical recruiting advantages than any other coach in the conference?

I’ll go on record right now: before this decade is over, Golesh won’t have led Auburn to more than 7 wins in a single season. Mark it down, write it in Sharpie, go Tigers (or rather, War Eagle).

Biggest (on-field) Winner of the Weekend: Vanderbilt Commodores

We’ve been hearing for years that Vanderbilt-Tennessee isn’t actually a rivalry because the Commodores have never actually threatened their in-state SEC counterparts as the best team in Tennessee, but thanks to Diego Pavia and Clark Lea, that all changed this year. The Dores went into Knoxville and blew the doors off of Neyland Stadium in a 45-24 win. Don’t look now, but Vandy has won 6 of its last 14 against the Vols. I think it’s officially time we start recognizing this as a legitimate SEC rivalry.

One last point on Vanderbilt… I have no idea if the Commodores are going to sneak into the College Football Playoff field. Actually, that’s a lie. I do feel pretty comfortable saying that the Fighting Pavia’s will probably be on the outside looking in, but I also know that Vandy was one of the 12-best teams I saw all season long, and with Clark Lea staying with the program for the foreseeable future, we might need to get used to saying that.

Biggest (on-field) Loser, but also maybe a stealth Winner, of the Weekend: Texas A&M Aggies

Okay, so I know that the Aggies would’ve loved the opportunity to, in one fell swoop, A) Beat Texas, B) Finish the regular season undefeated, and C) Advance to the SEC Championship Game, but their consolation prize for losing to the Longhorns on Friday night is getting an extra week of rest — which quarterback Marcel Reed could probably use after aggravating his ankle — and likely hosting a first round College Football Playoff game. Mike Elko‘s squad is going to be just fine.

Biggest News Outside of the SEC

Right until the bitter end, the ACC remained exceptionally weird, sending the Virginia Cavaliers and Duke Blue Devils to the ACC Championship Game this Saturday night despite the fact that most observers would possibly agree that Miami, Georgia Tech, SMU and Pittsburgh were all superior teams. I’m just gonna tell ya right now, I’ll be backing the Blue Devils this weekend because it would be the single weirdest outcome for the wackiest conference in the country.

Less than 24 hours after Indiana put a Hoosier State beating on the Purdue Boilermakers, Ohio State dug itself out of an early 6-0 hole in Ann Arbor to end up routing the Michigan Wolverines, setting up the game of the year in the Big Ten Championship — 12-0 vs. 12-0, perennial football powerhouse versus traditional basketball school to determine who will enter the 2025 College Football Playoff as the No. 1 seed and the last remaining unbeaten team in the country.

Tulane advances to a very green American Athletic Conference Championship Game against the North Texas Mean Green on Friday Night, and they’ll be doing so with head coach Jon Sumrall having one foot out the door as he’s on his way to Gainesville to coach the Florida Gators. Unlike Lane Kiffin, Sumrall will be coaching his former team throughout the postseason, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that changes if it’s the Mean Green that prevails in the AAC title game. For the record, I believe this is a home-run hiring for the Gators.

After dropping their first 2 games of the season, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have not just won 10 games in a row… they’ve steamrolled everybody in their path, defeating opponents by nearly 30 points per game during that winning streak. Even if I got ’em at home, I know I wouldn’t be super psyched to have to see the Irish in Round 1 of the College Football Playoff.

One Big Question Heading Into Conference Championship Weekend: Were wins by the Texas Longhorns or Vanderbilt Commodores enough to give the SEC another team in the College Football Playoff Field?

Alright, let’s break this down:

ACC Auto-Bid: Virginia Cavaliers or Duke Blue Devils

Potential ACC At-Large Bid: Miami Hurricanes

Big Ten Auto-Bid: Ohio State Buckeyes or Indiana Hoosiers

Potential Big Ten At-Large Bids: OSU/Indiana loser, Oregon Ducks

Big 12 Auto-Bid: Texas Tech Red Raiders or BYU Cougars

Potential Big 12 At-Large Bids: Texas Tech/BYU loser, Utah Utes

SEC Auto-Bid: Georgia Bulldogs or Alabama Crimson Tide

Potential SEC At-Large Bids: Georgia/Alabama loser, Ole Miss Rebels, Texas A&M Aggies, Oklahoma Sooners, Texas Longhorns, Vanderbilt Commodores

Group of 5 Auto-Bid: North Texas Mean Green, Tulane Green Wave, James Madison Dukes

Okay, that’s a lot of information to handle, so let me try to simplify: What we know right now is that there will be 5 automatic bids and 7 at-large bids. For either Texas or Vanderbilt to feel like they have a chance going into Selection Sunday, they need to be hoping that Texas Tech handles business for a second time this season against BYU, and that Georgia avenges its early season loss to Alabama.

Assuming that chalk prevails elsewhere, that means we’re looking at Ohio State, Texas Tech, Georgia, Virginia and Tulane as our conference champions with 7 at-large bids remaining. I think it’s safe to say that Oregon, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma are locked into the field, along with — in this scenario — the Indiana Hoosiers, who would have just 1 loss on the season. That leaves Notre Dame, Miami, BYU, Utah, Alabama, Texas and Vanderbilt as the 7 teams that have legitimate cases for the remaining 2 at-large bids.

With all due respect to the state of Utah, I haven’t looked at either BYU or the Utes as a bonafide Playoff team at any point this season. Would I start a riot if either team did make the Playoff field? Of course not, but I can safely say that Notre Dame, Miami, Alabama, Texas and Vanderbilt all feel like Playoff teams.

Now the question is, were Texas’s and Vandy’s wins over Texas A&M and Tennessee enough this week to vault them ahead of Notre Dame and Miami in the College Football Playoff rankings? And if so, would an Alabama loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game drop the 3-loss Tide out of the field?

There’s plenty to be sorted out over the next 5 days, and I personally can’t wait to go along for the ride!

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This year, even though matchups that looked promising before the season – South Carolina/Clemson and Florida State/Florida – end up being huge letdowns, we still have plenty of meat left on the bone to feast on within a glorious Friday-Saturday slate of games if you didn’t fill up on Thanksgiving. 

Today’s parlay will focus only at the most notable rivalry games on the schedule, and as you’ll soon see, we’ve got 5 good ones to look forward to. As always, odds are provided by BetMGM. 

Leg 1: Vanderbilt +2.5 (+100) over Tennessee

Ten years ago, before Clark Lea and Diego Pavia breathed life into a once lifeless Vanderbilt Commodores football program, there was chatter within the Volunteer State that this rivalry game needed a nickname. Hell, it was even covered right here at Saturday Down South. But because the Vols have been so dominant throughout the years, it’s as if everyone decided that a nickname wasn’t actually necessary.

Maybe this is the year that this sentiment changes. Even though Tennessee‘s College Football Playoff chances went down the drain with its third loss of the season, Vandy is very much alive for one of those final at-large spots, and you know the Vols would love to be the group to put a tragic end to this dream season.

I’ve been going back and forth on this game for the last 48 hours, but ultimately, I don’t think this is where Pavia Mania ends. Give me the Commodores to cover, win outright, and yes, make the College Football Playoff field thanks in large part to their win in what should be referred to as “The Smoky Mountain Bowl.”

Leg 2: Georgia money line (-525) over Georgia Tech 

Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate got a little less interesting this past Saturday night when Georgia Tech couldn’t stave off Pittsburgh at home. A win against the Panthers would’ve sent Georgia Tech to the ACC Championship Game, and put the Yellow Jackets in a position where a win over Georgia might’ve been enough to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff even if it couldn’t capture its second-ever ACC Title.

Now, even with a win over its in-state rival, Tech’s chances of making the College Football Playoff are incredibly slim. The only question is whether those dashed hopes change the calculus of this matchup?

Last year Georgia Tech didn’t have the possibility of making the Playoff hanging over this matchup, and it still pushed the Bulldogs to 8 overtimes. This time around, I don’t expect an instant classic, but I do think that GT will probably keep it closer than the 2-touchdown spread. With that said though, I feel safer backing Georgia to win outright.

Leg 3: Texas +2.5 (-115) over Texas A&M

I can’t possibly be the only one who has a sneaking suspicion that the inevitable drama and controversy coming out of the CFP Selection Committee’s eventual decision on the 12-team field is going to have to do with the Texas Longhorns, right? If Texas wins this game — and as you can see, that’s where I’m leaning — I wonder if that will that be enough for the Committee to talk themselves into a 3-loss Longhorns team over other at-large options with 2 or maybe even 1 loss?

Leg 4: Ohio State moneyline (-375) over Michigan

Little known fact: if you’re a resident of Ohio — which I am — you can do 5 years of jail time if you pick Michigan over Ohio State. Wild, I know, but they take The Game pretty seriously here in the Buckeye State.

Leg 5: Alabama -5.5 (-110) over Auburn

With their loss to John Mateer’s fully recovered broken hand and the Oklahoma Sooners 2 weeks ago, this is now officially a must-win game for the Alabama Crimson Tide. Lose this one and Bama’s hopes of winning an SEC title and making the College Football Playoff are out the door, and you know darn well that the Auburn Tigers would love to cap this tumultuous season by, for all intents and purposes, ending the season of their Iron Bowl rival as well.

I just don’t see it happening. I paid — literally — for backing Alabama in that game against Oklahoma, but I’m not going to be scared away this week. There’s just too much talent in Tuscaloosa for this program to miss the 12-team Playoff for a second consecutive season.

Total: +976

Additionally, just to be sure that I come away with the win this week, I’ll be betting a Thanksgiving parlay of over 2.5 helpings of stuffing, over 1.5 pieces of pie, and over 0.5 late-night turkey salad sandwiches. Not sure if you can find my Thanksgiving Day eating odds on BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel or whatever other sportsbooks you use, but my bookie is taking bets on this one, and I’m fairly confident that I’ll be cashing in. 

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With at least half of the SEC either on a bye or playing an overmatched tomato can this weekend, I’ve decided to include 3 non-SEC games in our parlay this week — one from each of the other Power 4 conferences — because to be completely honest with you, I have no idea what the heck to do with a line like Georgia -43.5 against Charlotte, or Alabama -50.5 versus Eastern Illinois, and matchups like those are so one-sided that you can’t even get a money line on the game.

And you know what, since we’re fast approaching Thanksgiving and the Christmas season, shouldn’t we be grateful for the consequential matchups we have elsewhere on the college football slate this weekend?

Before we get to the picks though, I want to start with one of my absolute favorite thought experiments… the Blind Résumé Game! Below I’ve compiled the statistical resumes of 2 different quarterbacks, and as you read through today’s parlay and ponder whether you want to take my advice and lock in these 4 upcoming picks ahead of kickoff, I also ask that you keep these 2 résumés in mind and ponder which of the 2 you find favorable.

Player A: 72% completion, 251.0 passing yards per game, 1.1 passing touchdowns per game, 159.2 passing efficiency rating, 89.7 rushing yards per game, 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game

Player B: 67% completion, 206.8 passing yards per game, 1.5 passing touchdowns per game, 164.2 passing efficiency rating, 65.0 rushing yards per game, 1.0 rushing touchdown per game

As always, all odds are via BetMGM Sportsbook:

Leg 1: Oklahoma money line (-275) over Missouri

I will admit, I am moderately concerned about the letdown game potential for the Sooners this weekend against Mizzou after pulling off a parlay-killing stunner at Alabama last Saturday. The Tigers won’t just roll over, and we know that Ahmad Hardy has the ability to take over a game, as he did last week, rushing for 300 yards in a win over Mississippi State. I’d advise staying away from the -7 line on this one, but I feel comfortable enough backing Oklahoma at home each of these next 2 weeks to get the Sooners into the College Football Playoff field.

Leg 2: Cincinnati money line (+115) over BYU

Two weeks ago I backed BYU on the road (+10.5) against Texas Tech, and within 6 minutes of that game I knew I didn’t stand a chance. The Red Raiders were clearly the superior team, with the superior NIL payroll and the superior mustachioed star in Heisman hopeful Jacob Rodriguez. Even with that wound still relatively fresh and raw, when I went to put together my picks for this week, I initially penciled BYU in as my choice. But then I asked myself why I would back the Cougars once again when it’s entirely possible that Brendan Sorsby and Cincinnati’s high-octane offense could end up putting me in a similar predicament just as quickly this weekend?

BYU just can’t quite score enough to make me feel comfortable taking the Cougars on the road against a team that can put a lot of points on the board.

Leg 3: Oregon money line (-375) over USC

The most consequential game of the weekend takes place up in Eugene, in a Big Ten battle that has College Football Playoff implications. If Oregon wins, all it needs to do is avoid a slip-up at Washington in the final week of the regular season and the Ducks will be quacking their way to the College Football Playoff even without playing in the Big Ten Championship Game. Hell, there’s a shot they could even host a game in the opening round. USC may need a little help, but if the Trojans upset the Ducks at Autzen on Saturday afternoon, they would be a home win against UCLA away from finishing the season 10-2 and having, according to ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor, a 75% chance of making the 12-team CFP field.

There’s one big problem for Lincoln Riley and the Trojans. Oregon hasn’t lost 2 home games in a single season since 2016, when Mark Helfrich was still the head coach of the Ducks. At that point, Dan Lanning was a linebackers coach at Memphis, Lincoln Riley was the offensive coordinator at Oklahoma, and both of these teams were still in the Pac-12.

Leg 4: Georgia Tech money line (-135) over Pittsburgh

Let’s revisit our Blind Résumé Game from up top:

Player A: 72% completion, 251.0 passing yards per game, 1.1 passing touchdowns per game, 159.2 passing efficiency rating, 89.7 rushing yards per game, 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game

Player B: 67% completion, 206.8 passing yards per game, 1.5 passing touchdowns per game, 164.2 passing efficiency rating, 65.0 rushing yards per game, 1.0 rushing touchdown per game

Player A is Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King this year, and Player B is Tim Tebow during his senior year at Florida, when he finished 5th in the Heisman Trophy vote.

I say all of this because if Georgia Tech wins this week and upsets Georgia next week, it would not only be wrong, but absolutely criminal if Haynes King isn’t in New York City as a Heisman Trophy finalist.

Total: +415

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We saw an historic comeback in Aggieland, a statement win from the best program of the last quarter-century, a 300-yard rushing game from Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy, and yet we’re going to start down in Tuscaloosa, where the Oklahoma Sooners and head coach Brent Venables secured their biggest win since making the jump from the Big 12 to the SEC.

Biggest Winner of the Weekend: Oklahoma Sooners 

If there were any lingering doubts heading into the week regarding Oklahoma’s legitimacy and readiness to compete in the SEC, then all of those Q’s were provided with A’s on Saturday afternoon, as the Sooners went into Tuscaloosa to face an Alabama team that hadn’t lost since the last weekend of August, earning a 23-21 win over the Tide to not only prove their worth in the Southeastern Conference, but also to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. 

I will admit that I’m a little bitter that it was the Sooners who cost me my Week 12 parlay, though in fairness, I probably didn’t even deserve to have a fighting chance considering the way the first half of South Carolina at Texas A&M went. At the same time, now that John Mateer was a full 52 days removed from surgery on his broken hand, I should’ve known better than to pick against Oklahoma. 

The job isn’t done for Oklahoma just yet though. The Sooners still need to take care of business in Norman against Missouri and LSU over the final 2 weeks of the regular season, but the biggest obstacle standing in the way of the Sooners heading into the month of November has already been cleared.  

Biggest Loser of the Weekend: Texas Longhorns 

Despite all of the hype and the preseason No. 1 ranking, barring something completely unexpected and completely undeserved, the Texas Longhorns will miss out on the College Football Playoff, much to the disappointment of head coach Steve Sarkisian, the entire Manning Family and Lone Star State legend Matthew McConaughey. 

Did we expect too much of Arch Manning in his first season as a starter? Of course we did. He was the preseason Heisman favorite, the expected No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft and already being compared to his 2 uncles, both of whom were selected 1st overall in the NFL Draft and have 2 Super Bowl titles apiece, even though he had thrown just 95 passes in his collegiate career heading into the season. 

Did we underestimate just how much of a grind this schedule, which started on the road against the Ohio State Buckeyes, was going to be? Evidently we did, though that argument maybe loses some steam since there was no good reason for the Longhorns to lose in Gainesville against a Gators squad that was just a couple of weeks away from firing its head coach. 

But losing in Athens to a Georgia Bulldogs team that is beginning to get their swagger back is nothing to be ashamed of, especially since that 35-10 final misrepresents how much of a fight the Longhorns put up over the first 3 quarters of the game. Georgia converted on a couple of 4th downs, swung the momentum of the game with an onside kick and then things got out of hand. 

Texas will reload and they’ll be back next year ready to contend for an SEC title yet again. But now that the national championship drought has hit 2 decades, patience is going to start wearing thin. 

Biggest Single Game Turnaround of the Weekend (and probably the year): Marcel Reed and the Texas A&M Aggies 

True story: I started my Saturday morning at Cleveland’s West Side Market doing a little eating and a little shopping with my fiancee and niece, and when we returned home, the very first play that I saw when I turned on my television was Nyck Harbor going 80 yards for a touchdown late in the 2nd quarter to give South Carolina a 27-3 lead over Texas A&M. Needless to say, this was not the score I expected to see from College Station at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time. To make matters even worse, the Gamecocks were able to tack on another 3 points before the teams went to the halftime locker room. 

It didn’t surprise me to learn that since 2004, teams were 0-286 in SEC play when trailing by 27 points or more. What did surprise me was that the Aggies bucked that trend, scoring 28 points unanswered in the 2nd half, upending the Houston Texans as the biggest comeback in the state of Texas in the month of November. Shout out to the Texans, who held that title belt for exactly 6 days. 

In the 2nd half of Saturday’s game, A&M out-gained South Carolina by 298 yards. Marcel Reed, who played the worst half of his career in the opening 2 frames of the game, bounced back in a major way in the 3rd and 4th quarters, throwing for 316 yards and 3 touchdowns in the 2nd half alone, getting an SEC Player of the Year and Heisman Trophy campaign that looked like it had gone off the rails back on track. Speaking of which… 

SEC Player of the Year Ballot 

1. Marcel Reed (QB, Texas A&M) – 2,632 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 61.5% completion, 391 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns 

2. Ty Simpson (QB, Alabama) – 2,787 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 66.9% completion, 2 rushing touchdowns 

3. Trinidad Chambliss (QB, Ole Miss) – 2,657 passing yards, 14 passing touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 65.2% completion, 444 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns 

4. Diego Pavia (QB, Vanderbilt) – 2,440 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 70.0% completion, 613 rushing yards, 7 rushing touchdowns 

5. Gunner Stockton (QB, Georgia) – 2,269 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 70.3% completion, 350 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns 

SEC Power Poll 

With Georgia’s win over Texas dropping the Longhorns to 7-3 on the season, I’m prepared to say that there are now just 6 teams left in the SEC who have 2 or fewer losses and enter the final 2 weeks of the season with legitimate College Football Playoff hopes. 

As I did last week, I’ll be including each team’s remaining games and current odds of making the CFP based on ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor. 

1. Texas A&M Aggies 
– Current Playoff Odds: 99%
– Remaining Games: vs. Samford, at Texas 

2. Georgia Bulldogs  
– Current Playoff Odds: 99%
– Remaining Games: vs. Charlotte, at Georgia Tech 

3. Ole Miss Rebels 
– Current Playoff Odds: 89%
– Remaining Games: at Mississippi State 

4. Alabama Crimson Tide 
– Current Playoff Odds: 84%
– Remaining Games: vs. Eastern Illinois, at Auburn 

5. Oklahoma Sooners 
– Current Playoff Odds: 49% 
– Remaining Games: vs. Missouri, vs. LSU 

6. Vanderbilt Commodores 
– Current Playoff Odds: 10%
– Remaining Games: vs. Kentucky, at Tennessee 

One Big Question for Week 13: With very little on the slate for the SEC, what should fans be paying attention to?

Very glad you asked! I’ve got 5 suggestions:

• Let’s start in the ACC, where we’ve got the Duke Blue Devils visiting the North Carolina Tar Heels at the Dean Dome… wait, that’s basketball. Never mind, we could find a better game to go to in the very wacky and still wide open ACC.
• Take two: Let’s start in the ACC, where we’ve got the Pittsburgh Panthers visiting the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Pitt’s loss at the hands of Notre Dame takes some of the luster off of this matchup, but both of these schools are very much in the hunt for an ACC Championship Game berth. In fact, Georgia Tech clinches its spot in the title game with a win in this game. Pittsburgh on the other hand would need to upset the Yellow Jackets and then do the same to the Miami Hurricanes in the final game of the regular season, and it would still need a little bit of help elsewhere. Also, can Haynes King finally start getting some Heisman Trophy love please?
• I know that Rutgers at Ohio State isn’t a matchup that screams Must Watch Football, but the Buckeyes’ defense is in historic territory right now, and this game against the Scarlet Knights can help the cause. Since 1990, no team has allowed fewer than 8 points per game in a single season. But presently, Ohio State’s D is allowing just 7.5 points per game.
• Interested in seeing how things shake out in the American Athletic Conference? Check out the double header on ESPNU, as Tulane goes on the road to face Temple, followed by North Texas visiting Rice. The Green Wave and Mean Green should both cruise, but perhaps we’ll get some mid-November madness in a conference that has been unpredictable from the jump this season.
• The game of greatest consequence on Saturday afternoon is a Pac-12, I mean, Big Ten, matchup between the USC Trojans and the Oregon Ducks. This is the only game on the slate in Week 13 where both teams still have hopes of making the College Football Playoff. USC’s hopes may be slim — only 18%, according to ESPN — but for that to materialize, a win in Eugene is a must. The Ducks haven’t been quite as dominant as we’re used to seeing from a Dan Lanning squad, but this is Oregon’s chance to earn a momentum-building and résumé-strengthening win late in the season.

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The problem here has been that far too often it’s been more of a “if” than “when” as it relates to these bets. Admittedly, my attempts at cashing in on parlays with such a sizable payday hasn’t yielded the results I’ve hoped for, but at the same time, I shouldn’t be all that surprised. When you’re making weekly picks that hover in the 10/1 range and rely on numerous teams winning bets, it’s not exactly a shocker if you’re on the losing end more often than not.

That’s why this week, I’m tailoring my approach to get us a 4-team moneyline parlay that gives us +162 odds, completely reasonable to the point that I fully expect to cash in, both here on the internet and in real life, where I’ve locked this parlay in on my preferred betting app.

The only caveat here is I’m totally fine with it if I lose this bet, because if I lose this bet, it will mean that my favorite thing about college football actually happened on Saturday.

Everyone is a fan of an upset, but in college football especially, I am a huge proponent of chaos. In fact, I would even go as far to make the case that in every single college football season of the last 2 decades, the game that sticks out the most in my mind, or the one that comes to mind first when I think about that season, is an upset.

Whether it be Texas over USC in the 2005 BCS National Championship Game, Boise State over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl the following year, or Appalachian State upsetting Michigan in the Big House during the opening weekend of the 2007 season, these are the games that rise above the rest. Watching Nevada upset Boise State on Black Friday 2010 stands out in my mind just as clearly as Johnny Football becoming a college football folk hero at the expense of the Alabama Crimson Tide does. Hell, even last year, the first game that comes to mind is Michigan’s stunner over Ohio State in the final week of the regular season.

What I wonder is, will this be the week that a game of this ilk plays out and takes a place forever in my brain? Well, if it doesn’t, then it means we’re all making some money on Saturday, friends! So let’s dive right in to the parlay, and then, let’s hit 3 important questions related to these 4 games.

As always, all odds are via BetMGM Sportsbook:

SEC Week 12 Parlay of the Week

• Leg 1: Texas A&M money line (-1200) over South Carolina
• Leg 2: Alabama money line (-225) over Oklahoma
• Leg 3: Ole Miss money line (-500) over Florida
• Leg 4: Georgia money line (-250) over Texas
• Total: +162

Question 1: What team is most likely to screw this parlay over?

To me, the answer feels like it’s pretty clearly the Georgia Bulldogs, who are hosting the preseason No. 1 ranked team, the Texas Longhorns. Full disclosure, if this game were being played in Austin, I’d probably pick the Longhorns, or at the very least, stay away from this game entirely. But this top 10 matchup will be contested between the hedges, so I’m taking Gunner Stockton and the Bulldogs to deliver a similar result as we saw in the SEC Championship Game last December.

Question 2: Assuming either Alabama or Georgia loses to Oklahoma or Texas, respectively, what does that do to the College Football Playoff picture?

Well, it certainly shakes it all up, doesn’t it? I don’t think it knocks either Alabama or Georgia out of the race entirely, as the Tide and the Bulldogs each have just one loss respectively. But it does make their path to the Playoff all the more difficult. Alabama would need to avoid a slip up in the Iron Bowl, and Georgia would have to survive against Georgia Tech in their season finale to stay in the mix, no easy feat based on what we saw last season.

As for what a win would do for either Texas or Oklahoma, it would no doubt strengthen their case to make the CFP, though it doesn’t necessarily guarantee either team ends up in the field. Texas has a date with unbeaten Texas A&M on Black Friday, and Oklahoma still needs to pass home tests against Mizzou and LSU to close out the season.

Presently, the Longhorns are the last at-large team in the College Football Playoff field and the Sooners are the last team out. So you better believe that programs such as Oregon, Notre Dame, BYU, Utah, Vanderbilt and a handful of others are hoping that chalk prevails this Saturday.

Question 3: Will this be the last time Lane Kiffin coaches against the Florida Gators before he becomes the next head coach of those Gators?

Just one week ago, I wrote the following:

My gut is telling me that Kiffin ends up heading to Gainesville. Florida will be ready to shell out some serious cash, and it’s possible that Kiffin has squeezed all of the potential he possibly could out of Ole Miss.

I stand by what I said, so yes, I do believe this will be the last time Lane Kiffin coaches against Florida before becoming the new head coach of the Gators.

The post SEC Parlay of the Week: Our 4 favorite plays for Week 12 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

But let’s not jump ahead just yet. First, let’s celebrate the week that was in the SEC and beyond!

Biggest Winner of the Weekend: The Alabama Crimson Tide (Football and Basketball)

On the gridiron and on the hardwood, the Alabama Crimson Tide were big winners on Saturday. Nate Oats’ squad went into the World’s Most Famous Arena and took down Rick Pitino and the Johnnies, proving that Alabama basketball is officially here to stay under the man who continues to make a compelling case that he’s among the best coaches in the entire country. Then, just hours later, back in Tuscaloosa, Kalen DeBoer‘s quest to return Bama back to the top of the SEC after a 1-season gap year took another step forward as the Tide rolled past the Brian Kelly-less LSU Tigers.

I’m not going to make any bold proclamations and say that they will do it, but if any program is going to become the first since the 2006-07 Florida Gators to win the college Football and college basketball championships in the same academic year, it’s going to be Alabama. And hell, it might end up happening this year.

Biggest Loser of the Weekend: The SEC

With nothing consequential on the slate, the SEC took a back seat to the Big 12, ACC and Big Ten in Week 11, a huge bummer considering how stacked the conference is and how many teams are still in the College Football Playoff hunt. With all due respect, if this conference is going to claim that “It just means more” in the SEC, we can’t have any November weekends go by with a lack of pop like this one did.

Play of the Weekend: Fernando Mendoza and Omar Cooper Jr. nearly break Gus Johnson’s brain

Gus Johnson just doesn’t miss, and on Fernando Mendoza’s final throw of the game, he didn’t miss either.

Biggest News Outside of the SEC

I want to spend just a bit more time talking about Indiana’s win over Penn State, because it established 2 things for me that going into Saturday I was unsure about.

• First, it established Indiana as a great team that can play from behind. We’ve seen the Hoosiers clean house over and over again during Curt Cignetti’s tenure, but rarely has this team come through in a big spot when their collective backs were against the wall. Well, that’s not the case anymore. I know Penn State isn’t top-tier competition. In fact, they’re in a full-blown free fall right now. But Happy Valley isn’t an easy place to win, and that’s not a fruitcake defense that the Hoosiers offense marched down the field against in the final minutes of the game to take the lead.
• Second, it solidified Fernando Mendoza as the Heisman frontrunner in my mind. No, it was not even close to being his best game, but it was Mendoza’s most important performance of the year, and that final drive — and final touchdown pass to Omar Cooper Jr. — was undoubtedly his Heisman moment. Whether anyone wants to admit it or not, this is in many ways a narrative award. At the very least, when all else feels equal, the vote will often come down to whoever has the best narrative. Right now, that belongs to Indiana’s QB.

As for who would be runner-up on my non-existent Heisman Trophy ballot, I’ll go against tradition and give some love to Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, whose Heisman push went into overdrive during Saturday’s authoritative win over the previously unbeaten BYU Cougars. Rodriguez finished with 14 tackles, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery and 1 totally justified Heisman pose.

The ACC remains exceptionally weird. Virginia and Louisville both lose at home to unranked opponents, so we’ve now got 7 programs – Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh, SMU, Duke, Louisville and Miami – within a game of each other in the loss column, all still with sights set on playing for the ACC Championship Game. Trying to figure out which 2 teams are going to end up playing in Charlotte on December 6? Yeah, so am I, and your guess is as good as mine. 

Things are heating up in the Group of 5! Much of the focus will be on figuring out who is going to come out of the American Conference, as Navy, South Florida, Tulane, North Texas, East Carolina and Memphis are in a logjam similar to that of the ACC. But don’t sleep on James Madison just yet. The Dukes have a much easier schedule the rest of the way, and in the most recent AP Poll, they were the highest ranked G5 team in the Top 25. 

Did you see the conditions in Oregon/Iowa? I know down south y’all don’t often get weather like this, but man oh man, that was some football weather where I come from. 

SEC Player of the Year Ballot

1. Ty Simpson (QB, Alabama) – 2,461 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 66.9% completion, 2 rushing touchdowns
2. Marcel Reed (QB, Texas A&M) – 2,193 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 62.3% completion, 378 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns
3. Diego Pavia (QB, Vanderbilt) – 2,063 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 69.2% completion, 501 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns
4. Trinidad Chambliss (QB, Ole Miss) – 2,356 passing yards, 13 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 64.0% completion, 434 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns
5. Gunner Stockton (QB, Georgia) – 1,776 passing yards, 12 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 70.3% completion, 290 rushing yards, 7 rushing touchdowns

SEC Power Poll

Following Texas A&M‘s win over Missouri this past Saturday, we’re officially down to 7 teams in the SEC who could conceivably play themselves into the College Football Playoff. Happy trails to Mizzou, who deserved better than to have its season essentially end when Beau Pribula went down with a potential season-ending leg injury. I think this is the point we would’ve arrived at anyway, but once QB1 went down, it all but sealed the Tigers’ fate.

So which 7 programs are left standing? And how good are each teams odds of making the CFP this year? Let’s investigate!

Playoff Odds provided by ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor.

1. Texas A&M Aggies
   – Current Playoff Odds: 99%
   – Remaining Games: vs. South Carolina, vs. Samford, at Texas
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
   – Current Playoff Odds: 96%
   – Remaining Games: vs. Oklahoma, vs. Eastern Illinois, at Auburn
3. Ole Miss Rebels
   – Current Playoff Odds: 81%
   – Remaining Games: vs. Florida, at Mississippi State
4. Georgia Bulldogs
   – Current Playoff Odds: 92%
   – Remaining Games: vs. Texas, vs. Charlotte, at Georgia Tech
5. Vanderbilt Commodores
   – Current Playoff Odds: 24%
   – Remaining Games: vs. Kentucky, at Tennessee
6. Texas Longhorns
   – Current Playoff Odds: 45%
   – Remaining Games: at Georgia, vs. Arkansas, vs. Texas A&M
7. Oklahoma Sooners
   – Current Playoff Odds: 33%
   – Remaining Games: at Alabama, vs. Missouri, vs. LSU

One Big Question Heading Into Week 12: Can the new SEC (Texas and Oklahoma) keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive against the old SEC (Georgia and Alabama)?

SEC, I forgive you for the weak slate in Week 11, because Week 12 provides us with not 1, but 2 massive games. And not only are these games massive in terms of sorting out how many SEC programs will end up making the College Football Playoff — a loss for either Texas or Oklahoma essentially shuts the door on any hopes for the CFP for both the Longhorns and the Sooners — but it gives the 2 newest programs in the SEC the chance to continue to show that they belong.

Texas showed it last year, making the conference title game in its debut season and pushing the Georgia Bulldogs to overtime. Oklahoma’s introductory season didn’t go so well. But this weekend, in the span of just a few hours, these former Big 12 powerhouses can prove once and for all that the jump to the Southeastern Conference wasn’t too much to handle.

The post Saturday Down South’s Weekend Awards: Week 11 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

But fret not friends and football fans. There’s still more than enough to be intrigued by to put together a tasty-looking parlay that will hopefully win us some money.

To be fair though, I have included 1 non-SEC game in this week’s parlay, but since I nailed Ohio State over Penn State last week, I figured nobody would have a problem with it if I took a trip to the Big 12 to include a line that I love this weekend.

As always, all odds are via BetMGM Sportsbook:

Leg 1: BYU +10 (-115) over Texas Tech 

I know that history tells us that early to mid-November is generally when BYU’s hot start to the season begins to run cold, but I continue to feel like the Cougars are being disrespected and overlooked in the midst of their second-consecutive 8-0 start. Now this isn’t to say that BYU is going to win outright on Saturday afternoon. The Red Raiders have been impressive all season long and they’re 19-5 playing in Lubbock under fourth-year head coach Joey McGuire.

But Tech is still getting Behren Morton back into rhythm after the fifth-year senior missed a pair of starts with a leg injury. He returned to action last Saturday against Kansas State, but the Red Raiders’ run game did most of the heavy lifting in a 43-20 win against the Wildcats. Even though they’ve given up at least 20 points in their last 5 games, the Cougars defense will make the Texas Tech offense work harder than anyone else has this season, and if BYU’s ground game is rolling, it could take a frenzied crowd out of the game.

Leg 2: Mississippi State +9 (-105) over Georgia 

These aren’t your older brother’s Georgia Bulldogs, friends. Kirby Smart‘s squad hasn’t been waxing opponents like they were in 2022 and 2023. They’ve had to grind out wins over the likes of Florida (24-20) and Auburn (20-10) over the last couple of weeks, and Starkville can be a very unkind place to play. Combine that with a noon ET kickoff and it feels like this is a game that Georgia might be asleep for at kickoff. Plus, with the Texas Longhorns coming to Athens next Saturday, this matchup has trap game potential.

Legs 3 and 4: Vanderbilt money line (-250) over Auburn / Alabama money line (-375) over LSU 

New coach bump be damned, I don’t think Auburn or LSU could rightfully be expected to go on the road and pull off an upset over a ranked SEC opponent this week. Both of these lines did scare me a little bit — Vanderbilt is -6.5 and Alabama is -10.5 — so just to avoid the potential backdoor cover, I’m opting to take the moneyline in each of these games.

Total: +547 

Hey, since we’re cutting this week’s parlay column slightly short, I wanted to use this space to share my thoughts on the 3 most recent head coaching openings in the SEC — sorry Arkansas, y’all are old news at this point. Now let me be clear, I have no insider knowledge whatsoever on who will end up getting the head coaching jobs at Auburn, LSU, or Florida, but I do have a hunch of what we might be able to expect from each of these schools.

Auburn – Interim coach DJ Durkin is going to get a long look at retaining the job on a full-time basis, especially since he does have 2 years of head coaching experience at Maryland. But ultimately, I’m not sure the job will end up being his. It makes sense that the Tigers would make a pass at Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham. Dillingham turned Arizona State into a contender overnight and he was on the Auburn coaching staff in 2019. But Dillingham is an Arizona State alum and he’s called coaching his alma mater his dream job. Whether that’s truthful remains to be seen, and it will likely be put to the test this winter.

I would expect there to be some James Franklin noise here, since the former Penn State coach got his head coaching start at Vanderbilt. But if we’re playing the coaching carousel guessing game, I think the Pennsylvania native stays a little closer to home and ends up getting the Virginia Tech job.

In the end, I’m going to take a stab at predicting someone for Auburn who isn’t a household name… Georgia Bulldogs defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann, Kirby Smart’s right hand man and a former Nick Saban protégée at Alabama. He has a decade’s-worth of experience in the SEC and he’s only 35 years old. It could be his time.

LSU – There are going to be plenty of names thrown out for the LSU job, as it may be the most enticing of all openings this offseason. In the end, I think this will come down to 2 guys… former LSU offensive coordinator and current Buffalo Bills OC Joe Brady, and Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall. I’d consider Brady the favorite, though the timing may be difficult considering how late the Bills may play into the postseason this year. If Buffalo makes a Super Bowl run, Brady would be tied up until mid-February, though there’s the possibility he could choose to leave early if the opening intrigued him that much.

Sumrall isn’t the biggest name, but considering he’s had early success with Tulane and he’s from the region, it seems like he’d be a natural fit for LSU. And if the Tigers don’t want to go the Brian Kelly route — big name coach from a big name program — Sumrall could be the best option.

Florida – The Florida Gators to me seem like the safest to try to make a splashy hire since Billy Napier and Jim McElwain had such little success after being poached from outside of the Power Four. I think if Lane Kiffin ends up leaving Ole Miss, it’s probably for the Florida job, and over the last 24 hours, there seems to be some momentum building for this move.

If Kiffin decides to stay put in Oxford, I expect that Florida will shift it’s focus to a pair of other SEC head coaches… Eli Drinkwitz and Clark Lea. Lea is from Nashville and went to Vandy, so he may be content with staying at home and continuing to try to build the Commodores into a consistent SEC contender. Drinkwitz has no real allegiance to Missouri other than a 6-year tenure that has been reasonably successful.

My gut is telling me that Kiffin ends up heading to Gainesville. Florida will be ready to shell out some serious cash, and it’s possible that Kiffin has squeezed all of the potential he possibly could out of Ole Miss.

The post SEC Parlay of the Week: Our 4 favorite plays for Week 11 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

And since we’re getting to the season where most of the country is going to be coated with snow, it’s only appropriate that we kick off the Week 10 Awards column with a man whose last name is “Freeze.”

Biggest Loser of the Weekend: Hugh Freeze

First it was Billy Napier, then it was Brian Kelly, and now, for the third-straight week, a traditional SEC powerhouse has decided to move on from their head coach, as the Auburn Tigers put an end to the tenure of head coach Hugh Freeze following an absolutely gross 10-3 home loss at the hands of the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday night. Frankly, following that loss to Kentucky, this was the right time to say “Don’t let the door hit ya where the good lord split ya” to Freeze, who had accumulated just a 15-19 record since becoming the head coach of the Tigers in 2023.

It continues a downward spiral for the Auburn Tigers, who haven’t had a winning season since the COVID year… the last year of of Gus Malzahn’s run with the school, in which the Tigers finished with a winning record in each of those seasons.

Auburn is now the latest Power 4 program to have a head coaching vacancy heading into the 2026 offseason, joining Florida, LSU, Penn State, UCLA, Arkansas, Oklahoma State and Virginia Tech.

Biggest Winner of the Weekend: Arch Manning

Now that was the Arch Manning we’ve been waiting for 2 months to see! In a 34-31 win over the Vanderbilt Commodores — a game that the Texas Longhorns needed in order to stay alive in the College Football Playoff race — Manning became the first player in program history to throw for 300 yards, 3 touchdowns and complete 75% of his passes against a top-10 opponent. That’s right. Vince Young never did it. Colt McCoy didn’t either. And neither did Quinn Ewers, Sam Ehlinger, Chris Simms or anyone else who has ever suited up for the Longhorns.

I’m not going to sit here and suggest that Arch Manning is suddenly the can’t-miss prospect he was considered to be before the season began. We need to see this over a bigger sample size before I’m ready to have that conversation again. Hell, if Manning does this at Georgia in 2 weeks, then maybe we could get that conversation rolling again. But at the very least, this was a solid sign of growth compared to where Arch was at the start of the year.

“I think he’s grown up,” Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian said after the win, per Dave Wilson of ESPN.com. “He just looks so much more mature. He looks so much more poised. He looks so much more confident, and he’s got a lot more trust in those guys around him.”

SEC Player of the Year Ballot

1. Ty Simpson (QB, Alabama) – 2,184 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 67.8% completion, 2 rushing yards
2. Marcel Reed (QB, Texas A&M) – 1,972 passing yards, 17 passing touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 61.4% completion, 349 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns
3. Diego Pavia (QB, Vanderbilt) – 2,063 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 69.2% completion, 501 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns
4. Trinidad Chambliss (QB, Ole Miss) – 2,023 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 60.6% completion, 435 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns
5. Arch Manning (QB, Texas) – 2,123 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 62.7% completion, 203 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns

SEC Power Poll

I have 2 major shake-ups to announce for this week’s SEC Power Poll. First, the Tennessee Volunteers have been knocked out of the Power Poll, because remember, we’re talking about championship equity here, and with 3 losses, there’s really no scenario where the Vols can make the field. With that said, I made a mistake dropping the Missouri Tigers out of consideration. I did so because quarterback Beau Pribula suffered an ankle dislocation and it’s unlikely he’ll be returning any time soon, but mathematically, Missouri isn’t out of the field.

Therefore, I’d like to amend that mistake by reintroducing the 2-loss Tigers to the Power Poll this week, because if Mizzou runs the table — which would include wins over Texas A&M and Oklahoma — it could absolutely make the 12-team Playoff field.

1. Texas A&M Aggies
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
3. Ole Miss Rebels
4. Georgia Bulldogs
5. Texas Longhorns
6. Oklahoma Sooners
7. Vanderbilt Commodores
8. Missouri Tigers

Play of the Weekend: Chauncey Bowens puts Georgia ahead for good against Florida

The Gators gave the Bulldogs are much tougher test than I expected they would, but the end result was the same… Georgia came away with the win at the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, thanks in large part to a late-4th quarter scamper from Chauncey Bowens, a redshirt freshman who originally committed to stay in-state and play for the Florida Gators before flipping his commitment to Georgia.

Biggest News Outside of the SEC

• A pair of unbeatens suffer their first defeat, as unranked Navy took a 31-17 L at the hands of North Texas, and Georgia Tech – like the Miami Hurricanes did on Saturday afternoon – found out how difficult it can be to win on the road in conference play. We’re now down to 4 undefeated teams… Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M and BYU, and looking ahead to Week 11, all 4 of these teams will be on the road this Saturday. 
• At this point, what else can we say about the Miami Hurricanes? After a loss on the road to SMU, it’s feeling like Mario Cristobal is on the fast-track to become the James Franklin of the South, only games in November are his kryptonite, not top-5 opponents. And boy, imagine my embarrassment, because it was only 3 weeks ago when I advised y’all to bet the over on 11.5 wins for the Hurricanes this season.
• Staying in the ACC, now the Virginia Cavaliers, not a misprint, are the only remaining program with a perfect record in conference games, and then there’s a logjam of 5 schools — Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Louisville, SMU and Duke — that are either 5-1 or 4-1 in ACC play, which sets us up for a truly wild final month of action in the Atlantic Coast Conference.
• That aforementioned road test for BYU this Saturday? It’s in Lubbock against Texas Tech, and thanks to the Cougars and Red Raiders, the Big 12 has 2 teams ranked in the top 10 for the first time in 2 years.
• I’d like to send a special congratulations to the Kennesaw State Owls, who currently sit atop Conference USA and have earned a berth to a bowl game in the program’s first season of bowl eligibility.

One Big Question Heading Into Week 11: What is the first CFP Top 12 going to look like?

Personally, I’m not a fan of the College Football Playoff committee announcing their current field a month ahead of time, just as I’m not a fan of the College Basketball’s Selection Committee doing the same early in February. I prefer the mystery, but with that said, I’m obligated to make my own set of predictions for the first rankings of the season, so here goes:

1. Ohio State Buckeyes 

2. Indiana Hoosiers 

3. Texas A&M Aggies 

4. Alabama Crimson Tide 

5. Georgia Bulldogs 

6. Ole Miss Rebels 

7. BYU Cougars 

8. Oregon Ducks 

9. Texas Tech Red Raiders 

10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 

11. Virginia Cavaliers 

12. Memphis Tigers 

__________________________

13. Texas Longhorns

14. Oklahoma Sooners

15. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

16. Vanderbilt Commodores

The post Saturday Down South’s Weekend Awards: Week 10 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

So if today is a lay around in bed or on the couch all day kind of day, just quickly pull up your preferred betting app, take my advice with these picks, and then spend the rest of the day dozing off with the games on in the background, knowing when the hangover subsides, you’ll have some extra money in your account.

As always, all betting lines are provided by BetMGM.

Leg 1: Texas -3 (-115) over Vanderbilt

Not that this is the best way to handicap a game, but I just keep thinking about how at the beginning of the year, it would’ve seemed downright nuts if someone told you that the Texas Longhorns would be favored by only 3 points at home against the Vanderbilt Commodores.

Again, this is admittedly not the best way to handicap a game. The preferred way would be to look at these 2 teams for who they are right now and then settle on the better team. Frankly, the better team might be Vandy. The better quarterback — at least right now — is definitely Diego Pavia. But I’ve just got a weird feeling that this is going to be the game that gets Texas right back into the thick of the College Football Playoff race, and it may also end up being the game that gets Arch Manning back on track.

Leg 2: Georgia -7 (-115) over Florida

I get that it’s a risky proposition to bet on a neutral site rivalry game. But here’s a trend for ya that might convince you to back the Bulldogs today… in the last five meetings between these 2 teams when Georgia is ranked and Florida is unranked, the Bulldogs have defeated the Gators by an average of 24 points per game.

What am I missing here?

Leg 3: Tennessee -3 (-105) over Oklahoma

As I detailed in my Week 9 awards column earlier this week, this is a Loser Leaves Town Game for the College Football Playoff. If this game were in Norman, and Oklahoma was a 3 point favorite, I’d probably be rolling with John Mateer, his recovering broken right hand, and the Sooners. But with it being played in Knoxville, I’m giving the edge to the Vols, who keep their CFP hopes alive and depending on how things break across the rest of the nation today, maybe get a boost back into the top 10.

Leg 4: Ohio State -17.5 (-110) over Penn State

Apologies for venturing outside of the SEC, friends, but this is my best bet of the week, and although it’s only the first day of November, I wouldn’t be surprised if this ended up being my best bet of the month. Can someone explain to me why the Ohio State Buckeyes — undefeated, playing at home and allowing just 6 points per game so far this season — are favored by under 3 touchdowns against the Penn State Nittany Lions, losers of 4 straight, playing with a backup quarterback and an interim head coach?

This makes absolutely no sense to me. Aside from their opening week 7-point win over the Texas Longhorns, the Buckeyes have beaten every other team they’ve played this year by at least 18 points. That includes somewhat tricky road tests against Washington and Illinois.

Again, I ask why this is only a 17.5-point line? If the Buckeyes don’t win by at least 3 touchdowns I will be absolutely stunned.

Total: +1230

The post SEC Parlay of the Week: Our 4 favorite plays for Week 10 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Ole Miss and Oklahoma played a doozy of a game. South Carolina nearly toppled Alabama. Mississippi State played 58 incredible minutes against Texas but couldn’t hang on to upset the Longhorns. Vanderbilt continued its rise at the expense of the Missouri Tigers.

But how could we not start with Texas A&M’s win over LSU down in Baton Rouge… a result that changes the trajectory of both programs in a major way?

What do you say? How about we start breaking all of this down?

Biggest Loser of the Weekend: Brian Kelly

It’s a tough business when you can win 71% the games you coach for a school, go a perfect 3-0 in bowl games, have a $54 million contract buyout dangling above your head, and you still don’t even make it to the end of the 4th year in a 10-year deal. But hey, that’s when happens when the highlight of your tenure was when you inexplicably debuted a Benoit Blanc accent when LSU introduced you as their head coach. 

Maybe Brian Kelly thought it would score him points down in Louisiana to speak like the local folks, but you know what it actually was? Well, to quote Benoit Blanc himself, it was just dumb.

Biggest Winner of the Weekend: Mike Elko and the Texas A&M Aggies

Instead of workshopping more Benoit Blanc/Brian Kelly jokes, let’s actually give Mike Elko and the Texas A&M Aggies some credit here, because they went into Death Valley on Saturday night and unleashed a bayou beatdown on the LSU Tigers in the 2nd half of that game, outscoring Brian Kelly’s now former squad 35-7 in the 3rd and 4th quarters to come away with a 49-25 win and keep their undefeated season alive.

A few notes:

• Texas A&M is now 8-0 for the first time since 1992. That Aggies squad cruised to a perfect 12-0 record in the regular season before losing to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the Cotton Bowl. A&M already beat the Irish this year, so at least we know history won’t repeat itself in that regard.
• This was the 4th consecutive road game that the Aggies have scored at least 40 points in. That seems like a point worth mentioning.
• The 49 points that A&M scored was the most that LSU has allowed in Death Valley as a ranked team since 2008. That could be part of the reason LSU fired Brian Kelly less than 24 hours later. But again, I feel like the whole accent debacle had a lot more to do with that decision than we all realize.

Back to Texas A&M… the Aggies are now 4 wins away from a perfect regular season, an SEC Championship Game appearance, and no matter how things fare in the SEC Championship, a berth into the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history. In all honesty, A&M could probably even afford one slip up along the way in the regular season and still feel pretty comfortable with their chances of making the field of 12. But you know damn well Mike Elko and company aren’t preaching this message to the Aggies.

Biggest News Outside of the SEC

• Along with Texas A&M, the Indiana Hoosiers, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and BYU Cougars all emerged victorious on Saturday, remaining unbeaten heading into the month of November. The top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes — who were on a bye — also still don’t have a loss, and considering the state of the Penn State Nittany Lions, it’s likely they’ll remain unbeaten at the end of this coming weekend as well.
• And I’d like to extend a sincere apology to the Navy Midshipmen, who I neglected to mention last week when discussing the last handful of undefeated teams standing. The Midshipmen remain unranked, but they’ve got a pair of golden opportunities over the next 2 weeks to prove they’re top 25 worthy. This Saturday, Navy will face 1-loss North Texas in a crucial American Athletic Conference showdown, and it’ll follow that up with a trip to South Bend to face Notre Dame on November 8.
• One more note on Indiana: In a 56-6 win over the UCLA Bruins, the Hoosiers earned their 2nd 50-point margin of victory in Big Ten play this season, becoming the first Power Conference team to do so since the 2018 Clemson Tigers… a Tigers squad that would go on to finish the season a perfect 15-0 and win the national championship.
• Dante Moore broke his nose and exited early in an ugly 21-7 Oregon Ducks win over the Wisconsin Badgers.
• Contenders are emerging in the new-look Big 12. As mentioned above, BYU is 8-0 for the second-consecutive season following a win over Iowa State. Texas Tech rolled over Oklahoma State, Houston upset Arizona State on the road, and Cincinnati remains unbeaten in Big 12 play after a 41-20 win over Baylor.
• We’ll find a lot out about the Bearcats this Saturday, when they make the trip to Salt Lake City to take on the Utah Utes in what we’ll be one of the most consequential games of the year in the Big 12. And in 2 weeks, BYU visits Texas Tech in a matchup with even higher stakes.

Play of the Weekend: Deontae Lawson strips LaNorris Sellers, sets Alabama up for game-winning score

With all due respect to Cam Coleman’s ridiculous one-handed touchdown grab against Arkansas and Ryan Niblett’s uber-clutch 79-yard punt return versus Mississippi State, the heady play of Alabama linebacker Deontae Lawson is like catnip for this former linebacker.

SEC Player of the Year Ballot

1. Ty Simpson (QB, Alabama) – 2,184 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 67.8% completion, 2 rushing touchdowns
2. Diego Pavia (QB, Vanderbilt) – 1,698 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 68.8% completion, 458 rushing yards, 5 rushing touchdowns
3. Marcel Reed (QB, Texas A&M) – 1,972 passing yards, 17 passing touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 61.4% completion, 349 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns
4. Trinidad Chambliss (QB, Ole Miss) – 1,864 passing yards, 9 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 61.0% completion, 376 rushing yards, 5 rushing touchdowns
5. Gunner Stockton (QB, Georgia) – 1,553 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 70.5% completion, 279 rushing yards, 7 rushing touchdowns

SEC Power Poll of the Week

1. Texas A&M
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. Ole Miss
5. Vanderbilt
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. Oklahoma

One Big Question Heading Into Week 10: How many teams can the SEC realistically send to the College Football Playoff?

So if you’ll look at the Power Poll above, these are the 8 teams that I could still see making the College Football Playoff. Before moving forward and working through some scenarios that could help us come to an answer to this question, I’d like to issue a formal apology to the Missouri Tigers, who I’ve been very impressed by all season. The problem is, with 2 losses in SEC play already and quarterback Beau Pribula likely done for several weeks, I just can’t see it happening.

Now first, I want to clarify something… even though I can see all 8 of these teams making the College Football Playoff, there’s no scenario where all 8 actually can make it. Last year, only 3 SEC schools — Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee — made the College Football Playoff, and there were 3 additional SEC programs — Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina — who finished among the 4 teams on the bubble, so to speak.

Second, I want to clarify one more thing… As I build out these scenarios, I’m not going to be coming up with contingencies for any conferences other than the SEC. I understand that what happens outside of the SEC will have an impact on how many SEC teams make the CFP field, but this is Saturday Down South, not Saturday in the Midwest.

So with that said, how about we run through what I consider to be the most realistic scenario? While I concede that it’s unlikely that I’ll pick every single one of these games correctly, I can say with just as much confidence that you can’t either, so since I’m doing the writing, how about we just divulge in my preferred sequence of events?

Week 10 – Texas defeats Vanderbilt, Georgia defeats Florida, Ole Miss defeats South Carolina, Tennessee defeats Oklahoma

This means: After Week 10, the Oklahoma Sooners would be out of College Football Playoff consideration. Frankly, the same could be said for Tennessee if the Vols were to lose this game. I don’t believe this loss would knock Vanderbilt out of consideration. The Commodores stay alive.

Week 11 – Georgia defeats Mississippi State, Ole Miss defeats The Citadel, Texas A&M defeats Missouri, Vanderbilt defeats Auburn and Alabama defeats LSU

This means: No teams get knocked out. 7 SEC programs remain in College Football Playoff contention (Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee).

Week 12 – Texas A&M defeats South Carolina, Alabama defeats Oklahoma, Georgia defeats Texas, Ole Miss defeats Florida, Tennessee defeats New Mexico State

This means: With 3 losses and numerous close calls already, the ballyhooed Texas Longhorns will miss out on the College Football Playoff. Six SEC teams remain in College Football Playoff contention (Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, Tennessee).

Week 13 – Vanderbilt defeats Kentucky, Tennessee defeats Florida, Texas A&M defeats Samford, Georgia defeats Charlotte, Alabama defeats Eastern Illinois

This means: Nothing changes, but I must say, it would be hilarious if it were a team like Samford that upended Texas A&M’s perfect season.

Week 14 – Yeah, so this is where things get a little tricky. Do you lean Georgia over Georgia Tech? What do we do with Texas A&M at Texas? Vanderbilt at Tennessee feels like a game that can go either way, too. Basically, what I’m getting at here is this could be a straight-up donnybrook of a weekend, and it can/will impact who goes to the College Football Playoff.

In those 3 games, I would pick Georgia (barely), Texas A&M (convincingly, so long as Texas was already knocked out of contention), and Vanderbilt (I just can’t quit Diego Pavia).

That means: Heading into conference championship weekend, 5 SEC teams remain in College Football Playoff contention (Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt).

Week 15 – Assuming this is the way things play out, the SEC Championship Game would pit the Texas A&M Aggies against the Alabama Crimson Tide. While the chip would be nice, I think we could comfortably lock both A&M and Bama into the College Football Playoff field regardless of the outcome. Georgia is also locked in, and honestly, I think Ole Miss would be, too. The team on the bubble here would be Vanderbilt, who would have losses on the road at Alabama and at Texas, and wins over the likes of LSU, Missouri, and Tennessee.

At this point, to really diagnose Vandy’s chances, we’d need to know more about what happened elsewhere in the nation. Is Georgia Tech’s only loss to Georgia, or do Miami, Virginia or Louisville claim the ACC crown? Does Notre Dame have a stumble somewhere along the way? How much does the Big 12 cannibalize itself? These are just 3 of roughly 1,000 questions that need to be answered over the next 6 weeks.

Boy, it’s gonna be fun.

The post Saturday Down South’s Weekend Awards: Week 9 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Naturally, the SEC will of course be at the epicenter of all of these discussions. Last year, the Southeastern Conference put only 3 teams in the College Football Playoff field, a stunner for those who expected that the conference could potentially get 5, maybe even 6, teams in before the season began. What we didn’t see coming was that the dominance of the SEC would be upended by its depth, with upsets such as Vanderbilt over Alabama, Kentucky over Ole Miss, and Florida over LSU ultimately playing a role in why just 3 SEC teams made the inaugural 12-team Playoff.

To be honest, it feels like we may be heading toward a similar fate this year. Sure, right now, the SEC has 10 teams in the Top 25 and 7 in the Top 15, but that’s not going to stand. There are just too many matchups between ranked teams left on the schedule for all of these programs with postseason dreams to see those dreams come true. And this weekend is going to surely going to crush some dreams.

Last week, I broke down each matchup on the SEC slate before ultimately deciding on the 4 games that would make up my weekend parlay. Not only was this exercise fun, but it was also informative and helpful, and I’m confident that this week, it will prove to be profitable as well.

As always, all betting lines are provided by BetMGM.

Alabama money line (-450) over South Carolina

The Tide are favored by 11.5 points at South Carolina, and that number scares me as much as Michael Myers scares the residents of Haddonfield, Illinois. But with that said, I’m not prepared to back the Gamecocks either, because going against Alabama scares me as much as Jason Vorhees scares the counselors at Camp Crystal Lake. So instead, I’m tossing Alabama’s money line into the parlay and avoiding any pre-Halloween frights.

Ole Miss +5.5 (-115) over Oklahoma

With total confidence, I can tell you I’ll be staying away from this one. I worry that the Rebels’ bubble burst with their loss to Georgia last week, but at the same time, John Mateer will only be 31 days removed from surgery on his broken right hand at kickoff. This one is agonizing and I suggest you don’t touch it.

Arkansas -2.5 (-110) over Auburn

Do you think Hugh Freeze is already perusing Indeed and LinkedIn to find his next job? If he hasn’t, he might want to start, because after the Razorbacks win this one, that might be it for Hugh.

Vanderbilt -2.5 (-115) over Missouri

If you read my Week 8 awards column, you’ll know I’m all in on Diego Pavia and the Vanderbilt Commodores. I think this is more than just a fun story and a Heisman candidate… Vandy has looked like it belongs among the top dogs in the SEC, even in a loss to Alabama a couple of weeks back.

With that said, Missouri put up an admirable effort versus the Crimson Tide as well, so I don’t necessarily think Vandy is going to boat race Mizzou on Saturday afternoon. But 2.5 points is a palatable enough number for me to feel confident in locking in Vanderbilt this weekend.

LSU +2.5 (-105) over Texas A&M

Treat this game like a haunted house — and not a haunted house where paid employees are hiding around every corner and relishing the opportunity to bombard you with a flurry of jump scares, but a real haunted house that you should probably not enter unless you’re accompanied by a ghost hunter or a priest. Just stay away.

Mississippi State +7 (-110) over Texas / Kentucky +8.5 (-110) over Tennessee

Each of these lines feel a smidge too high considering how shaky Texas and Tennessee have both looked at times this year, and how competent Mississippi State and Kentucky have been at home vs. ranked opponents. I felt going into this exercise that either the Bulldogs or Wildcats would end up making the final parlay, but as I’m typing this sentence, I’m still unsure.

The Picks

This weekend we’re going to rock with the Alabama money line for our first leg, and we’re going to follow that up with Arkansas -2.5 over Auburn in leg 2. Vanderbilt at -2.5 against Missouri might be my favorite bet of the week, so consider that leg 3. And finally for leg 4, I’m giving the edge to Kentucky +8.5 over Tennessee instead of Mississippi State +7 over Texas. If you’re feeling bold, toss them both in there and make it a 5-leg parlay.

Total: +732

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Biggest Winner of the Weekend/Most Impressive Player I Saw This Weekend: Diego Pavia

Let’s start here: The program turnaround that Clark Lea has facilitated in Nashville has been remarkable, and by no means are the Vanderbilt Commodores a one-man show, but it’s hard not to get caught up in the Diego Pavia hype, isn’t it? Pavia seems to be catnip for the college football media, and on Saturday afternoon against the visiting LSU Tigers, the 24-year-old who began his career at the New Mexico Military Institute turned in a Heisman-worthy performance, and capping it off with the most famous pose in all of sports late in the game.

Pavia completed 14-of-22 passes for 160 yards and a score, plus he added 86 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground in Vanderbilt’s 31-24 win over LSU. Now the Commodores have cracked the Top 10 in the AP Poll for the first time since 1937, and this Saturday, Vandy will be hosting College GameDay with the 1-loss Missouri Tigers coming to town. If Pavia delivers again, the hype will begin to border on hysteria, and you know what, I’m here for it!

Biggest Loser of the Weekend: Billy Napier 

Poor Billy Napier, huh? The guy is just 3 weeks removed from beating the preseason No. 1 team in the country, and just hours removed from earning another hard-fought SEC win, and then he gets the axe? That’s cold-blooded right there, though I can’t sit here and pretend it probably isn’t the right decision for the school.

For the record, I’m not even thinking about how Florida is going to do in 2 weeks when it faces Georgia, and how they finish out the rest of the 2025 season. This is a program that has been out of the spotlight for far too long, and this coaching hire could dictate if they return to the spotlight any time in the next 3 years.

The university went the G5 route when they hired Napier, and that didn’t yield positive results. This time around, I’d expect Florida to make a big swing. James Franklin (formerly Penn State, now unemployed), Rhett Lashlee (SMU), Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss) and Eli Drinkwitz (Missouri) to all end up in the mix as candidates.

Overreaction of the Week: Texas A&M is the best team in the SEC!

I know that that Aggies are the last remaining undefeated team in the SEC, and sure, they earned an impressive win over the surging Notre Dame Fighting Irish down in South Bend last month, but let’s all just take a sip of settle down juice, okay? A&M hasn’t played any of the heavy hitters in the SEC yet, and the Aggies will avoid Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma this season. But visits to Baton Rouge (this Saturday) and Columbia, South Carolina (November 8) over the next 3 weeks will test the Aggies mettle, and maybe even show us that despite the 7-0 start, there are levels in the SEC and A&M isn’t at the top just yet.

Biggest News Outside of the SEC

A new addition to the weekend awards column, because as we get deeper and deeper into the season, it’s becoming more and more important to keep an eye on things happening outside of SEC country. Let’s roll through some of the biggest headlines outside of the Southeastern Conference. 

• Miami loses at home as a double-digit favorite for the fourth time under Mario Cristobal, the most in the FBS since 2022. Do I feel a little foolish for advising that you bet the over on 11.5 wins for Hurricanes just 2 weeks ago? I do, but fortunately, that might not even crack the top 10 of my worst college football predictions this year. 
• Thanks to Miami’s loss, Indiana moves up to No. 2, the highest ranking in program history. And don’t look now, but the Hoosiers don’t have another ranked opponent on the schedule, meaning Curt Cignetti’s squad could be just a little over a month away from taking an undefeated record into the Big Ten Championship Game, and who knows, the Hoosiers might be going head-to-head with the top-ranked undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes. Absolutely remarkable.  
• I don’t want to get ahead of myself, because there’s a whole lot of football left to play and this season is proving to be exceptionally wonky, but we’re just 8 combined wins from the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and the Georgia Bulldogs away from the first edition of Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate where the Yellow Jackets and Bulldogs are ranked in the Top 10 since 1966. I wasn’t alive yet, and chances are, neither were you. Especially after last year’s 8OT classic, I say we spend the rest of the season rooting for this to happen.
• We’ve covered 4 undefeated teams already — Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M and Georgia Tech — which leaves the BYU Cougars, ranked 11th in the country after a Holy War victory over Utah, as the only team without mention. Remember, the Cougars started last year 9-0 and were ranked 7th in the country when they were stunned by the unranked Kansas Jayhawks in Provo. I don’t necessarily have a great feel for what to expect from BYU moving forward, but I can tell you this… I’m rooting for Bear Bachmeier and the Cougars. You give me a quarterback named Bear who dons No. 47 on his jersey, and that’s a guy I can get behind.

Play of the Weekend: “THERE’S A BEAR ON THE LOOSE!”

I know this isn’t an SEC game, but what an absolute gem of a call from the announce booth on this 22-yard game-sealing touchdown run from Bear Bachmeier.

SEC Player of the Year Ballot

With all due respect to every talented skill position player shining in the SEC this season, it does feel like after Week 8, there are 5 quarterbacks levitating above the rest of the conference.

1. Ty Simpson (QB, Alabama) – 1,931 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 70.2% completion, 2 rushing touchdowns
2. Diego Pavia (QB, Vanderbilt) – 1,569 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 70.5% completion, 438 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns, 1 Heisman pose
3. Marcel Reed (QB, Texas A&M) – 1,770 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 61.9% completion, 241 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns
4. Gunner Stockton (QB, Georgia) – 1,553 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 70.5% completion, 279 rushing yards, 7 rushing touchdowns
5. Trinidad Chambliss (QB, Ole Miss) – 1,549 passing yards, 8 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 62.7% completion, 323 rushing yards, 5 rushing touchdowns

SEC Power Poll of the Week 

1. Alabama 

2. Georgia

3. Texas A&M

4. Ole Miss 

5. Vanderbilt 

6. Texas 

7. Oklahoma 

8. LSU

9. Missouri 

10. Tennessee 

One Big Question Heading Into Week 9: Is Hugh Freeze the next coach to be fired?

The Auburn Tigers are in a free-fall, and now that the Florida Gators have broken the seal and canned Billy Napier, it might mean that Hugh Freeze is next. Auburn will be without starting center Connor Lew for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL, and the schedule ahead is just as unforgiving as that injury diagnosis was. A tricky road test in Fayetteville awaits, and then a game Kentucky Wildcats squad that nearly toppled the Texas Longhorns late on Saturday night will come to town. That’s followed by a road game against Diego Pavia and the Commodores on November 8th, and then the 90th annual Iron Bowl closes out the season.

I don’t think Hugh Freeze makes it to the Iron Bowl, but if he does, I doubt he lasts another 24 hours as the team’s head coach at the conclusion of the game. And of course, this raises 2 more big questions… who replaces him, and will the pool of candidates differ all that much from who the Florida Gators are going to consider?

The post Saturday Down South’s Weekend Awards: Week 8 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

In total, we’ve got 8 matchups on the board this weekend, and I’ll be honest, as I begin writing this week’s column, I still don’t know which of these games I’ll be settling on as the 4 games in my official parlay of the week. But with that said, I’ve prepared predictions for all 8 matchups and, as usual, all betting lines are provided by BetMGM.

Mississippi State +9.5 over Florida

Florida at -9.5 just feels a little rich for my blood, especially when boosters are already reportedly angling for Billy Napier to be fired as soon as possible.

Arkansas +7.5 over Texas A&M

The Razorbacks have hung in there against a triad of ranked teams already this season — Tennessee, Memphis and Ole Miss — so I don’t see why, with this game being played in Fayetteville, they wouldn’t be able to stay within striking distance against the Aggies.

Tennessee +8.5 over Alabama

Oh yes, that’s right. It’s the Third Saturday in October! Alabama is the better team, and I believe Alabama will win the game, but the Tide aren’t going to roll by 9 or more points against the Vols. Though, with that said, in each of the last 4 games that these teams have in Tuscaloosa, Alabama has won by at least 14 points.

Georgia money line over Ole Miss

I hate this line — Georgia -7.5 — so much that I plan on staying away from it entirely. If I do use this game for my parlay, it will be the money line, because I do think the Bulldogs emerge with a win and inch closer to reclaiming their spot atop the SEC.

Vanderbilt -1.5 over LSU

Before the season even began, in a 125 Predictions for the 2025 Football Season column I wrote for my own website, I predicted that Vanderbilt would score another upset over a top-10 ranked SEC opponent, and I even went as far as predicting that the win would come at the expense of the LSU Tigers. I can’t possibly back out now, can I? I talked the talk, now it’s time to walk the walk.

Kentucky +12.5 over Texas

Call it a post-Red River hangover if you’d like, I still just don’t know what to expect out of the Longhorns on a week-to-week basis. I have a slight lean toward Kentucky and the under in this game.

Missouri -1.5 over Auburn

I continue to feel like Auburn might be getting a little more respect than deserved, and even in a loss vs. Alabama last Saturday, I came away relatively impressed by the way the Missouri Tigers played, even in a game when Ahmad Hardy couldn’t get anything going on the ground.

South Carolina +5.5 over Oklahoma

Considering how John Mateer will be only 24 days removed from surgery on his throwing hand, that still doesn’t feel like a comfortable enough amount of time to back the Sooners. I had high hopes for the Gamecocks coming into the season, and even though LaNorris Sellers and Co. can’t salvage a College Football Playoff appearance, a win over the Sooners would go a long way toward ensuring that South Carolina doesn’t depart from this season feeling like it was a total waste.

The Picks: With all of the turmoil in Gainesville, I’m going to toss Mississippi State in at +9.5 as the Leg 1. Leg 2 will be the Georgia money line, though admittedly, my rooting interests are aligned with Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels. Leg 3 is Vanderbilt, because as I said, I can’t shy away from that preseason prediction now. And for the final leg of this weeks parlay, I’ll give South Carolina one last chance to grasp at some of that preseason hype. Plus, until Mateer is at least a full month removed from surgery on a broken right hand, I’m not sure how I can rightfully expect much from the Sooners offense.

Total odds: +786

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I know this is supposed to be an SEC-only column, but if you don’t mind, in good faith I feel like I can’t skip over 2 of the most important developments of the weekend, both of which occurred in the Big Ten.

Let’s make like Degeneration X and break it down!

Biggest Winner of the Weekend (Non-SEC Edition): Curt Cignetti and the Indiana Hoosiers 

So this is a thing now, huh? Indiana is just awesome at football and we’re supposed to accept that? I’ll be honest, it all felt pretty funky to me going into the season. I expected Indiana to backslide this year, not necessarily back to the basement of the Big Ten, but at least into the middle of the pack. But then the Hoosiers dismantled Illinois a few weeks back, handled business against everyone else, and by the time we got to their mid-afternoon kickoff in Eugene, I had almost talked myself into Indiana being a live dog on the road.

But Oregon has been the picture of consistency since Dan Lanning arrived, and even prior, the Ducks’ track record of defending their home field as well as anyone in the country. Was it really going to be the Hoosiers who came into Autzen and outclassed Oregon?

It turns out, it was going to be the Hoosiers, because there was nothing fluky about that win. And as if it weren’t clear already, we no longer need to Google Curt Cignetti’s name to realize he is one of the absolute best head coaches in the business. I never thought I’d see the day that the Indiana Hoosiers were a year-over-year legitimate threat to win the Big Ten title, but Cignetti made good on the promise he made when he was hired, and now, that’s exactly where we are.

Biggest Loser of the Weekend (Non-SEC Edition): James Franklin 

I would say it’s too soon to make any James Franklin or Penn State jokes, but then I asked my cousin — a Penn State fan — how he was feeling about Franklin being fired, and this was his response: Very happy!! He couldn’t ever win the big game bro.

Evidently, it wasn’t just the big games that Franklin couldn’t win, because matchups with UCLA and Northwestern definitely don’t qualify as big games. But after dropping back to back games as 20+ point favorites, this was the time for Penn State to make the change.

Overreaction of the Week: John Mateer Shouldn’t Have Played in the Red River Rivalry! 

I think there actually might be 2 different crowds here yelling that John Mateer shouldn’t have taken the field for the Red River Rivalry on Saturday just 17 days after having hand surgery. I’ll address both of them, because in each instance, they’re overreacting to this.

First, to the crowd that is saying John Mateer shouldn’t have pushed to play on Saturday… what do you expect him to do? Mateer might be at Oklahoma for just one single season, and you’d expect him to sit out what might be his one and only opportunity to play in the Red River Rivalry? If you have a competitive bone in your body — even if that bone is the bone in John Mateer’s right hand that was surgically repaired only 17 days ahead of Oklahoma vs. Texas — you’re able to put yourself in his shoes and understand why he’d push to play.

Second, to the crowd saying that Brent Venables and the Oklahoma Sooners staff shouldn’t have made the decision to play John Mateer on Saturday… was trusting Michael Hawkins Jr. really the better option? Are we sure he could’ve done any better against a rock-solid Texas Longhorns defense? Frankly, I don’t think so, and yes, I say that with conviction even after Mateer threw 3 interceptions in what was certainly his worst game of the season. There’s a reason Mateer arrived in Norman with a nearly $3 million NIL price tag. He gives the Sooners the best chance to win games like this one, even if he’s only 17 days removed from hand surgery.

Also, I’d like to thank ABC for reminding us throughout the game that Mateer had surgery 17 days earlier. I think it might’ve slipped my mind if that graphic wasn’t popping up on the screen once every 7 minutes.

Biggest Winner of the Weekend: Steve Sarkisian and the Texas Longhorns 

I don’t want to suggest that Steve Sarkisian would’ve gotten the James Franklin treatment if Texas didn’t walk out of Red River with a win, but things would’ve been looking awfully bleak for the head coach of the preseason’s top-ranked team if it dropped one to its most bitter rival and fell to 3-3 on the season. Fortunately, the Longhorns’ defense feasted on John Mateer — who had surgery on a broken right hand just 17 days prior to Saturday’s game — and Arch Manning and the Texas offense was able to muster just enough to put the game out of reach.

Biggest Loser of the Weekend: South Carolina Gamecocks 

The Gamecocks hung tough at LSU on Saturday night, but I’ll be honest, that was a game that had I pegged South Carolina to win before the season began. Since that’s the case, I’ll bunch myself in with the South Carolina Gamecocks here, because I spent the summer and the early weeks of the season suggesting that the Gamecocks were not just a sleeper to win the SEC title, but the national championship as well. Turns out, I got just a little carried away with the LaNorris Sellers, Dylan Stewart, Beamer Ball hype, ignoring that there are multiple teams in the SEC that are just better than South Carolina.

SEC Player of the Year Ballot

With apologies to Marcel Reed, Mario Craver, Kewan Lacy, Chris Brazzell II, Gunner Stockton, Taylen Green and John Mateer (who played on Saturday despite having hand surgery just 17 days earlier), the top 5 on my SEC Player of the Year ballot remains mostly the same as last week, with just a minor switch being made in the No. 2 and No. 3 spots.

1. Ty Simpson (QB, Alabama) — 1,678 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 70.9% completion, 2 rushing touchdowns

2. Trinidad Chambliss (QB, Ole Miss) — 1,286 passing yards, 7 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 65.4% completion, 281 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns

3. Ahmad Hardy (RB, Missouri) — 115 attempts, 782 rushing yards, 9 rushing touchdowns

4. Diego Pavia (QB, Vanderbilt) — 1,409 passing yards, 14 passing touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 71.4% completion, 352 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns

5. Joey Aguilar (QB, Tennessee) — 1,680 passing yards, 14 passing touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 64.8% completion, 117 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns

SEC Power Poll of the Week 

1. Alabama 

2. Ole Miss 

3. Texas A&M 

4. Georgia 

5. LSU 

6. Texas 

7. Oklahoma 

8. Tennessee 

9. Vanderbilt 

10. Missouri 

One Big Question Heading Into Week 8: Will we continue to be reminded of how many days it’s been since John Mateer had hand surgery, or was that a 1-week-only deal? 

The Year is 2042. John Mateer hasn’t played a snap for the Oklahoma Sooners in 17 years, and he’s since retired from the NFL. As Oklahoma and Texas get set to kick off the 138th edition of the Red River Rivalry, a graphic appears on the screen: 6,226 days since John Mateer’s hand surgery.

Another Big Question Heading Into Week 8: Is Ole Miss ready to go into Athens and secure their biggest win in the Lane Kiffin era? 

Thank goodness Ole Miss survived that trap game against Washington State on Saturday afternoon, because now we’re set up for our sixth top-10 matchup of the season this weekend in Athens, when Lane Kiffin and the Rebels take on Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs, winners of 2 games in a row after getting upset by Alabama (in Athens) a few weeks back.

The Rebels did upset 2nd-ranked Georgia late in the season last year, but that game was in Oxford. The year prior, when Ole Miss visited Georgia, the Bulldogs cruised to a 52-17 win. Consider this the rubber match if you’d like, and perhaps, it could also be considered the most consequential game of the season just yet in the SEC.

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Strangely enough, even with mixed success so far this season, I look at the this week’s schedule and feel very comfortable with some of the games on tap. In non-SEC action, I like Texas Tech (-14) over Kansas, Iowa State (-2.5) on the road at Colorado, and Illinois (+14.5) to keep things close against Ohio State. But as far as things go in the SEC, well, let’s get to it!

As usual, all betting lines are provided by BetMGM.

Leg 1: Alabama -3 (-115) over Missouri

In my Week 6 SEC Awards column, I promised I’d have a pick prepared for this matchup, and although I don’t necessarily feel fantastic about it, I’m going to be a man of my word. I looked long and hard at Missouri, and until late Thursday night, I was actually planning on locking in Mizzou +3 as my selection. But then I realized something… I want Missouri to win, and not because I have anything against Alabama. I want Missouri to win because, as I pointed out in that aforementioned Week 6 Awards column, I wrote a section about the totally bonkers 2007 college football season, which is unequivocally on my Mount Rushmore of favorite college football seasons of the last quarter-century, along with 2005, 2010 and 2024.

(For the record, I agonized over deciding on my Mount Rushmore for far too long, and I feel compelled to note that 2008, 2013 and 2019 all received serious consideration for that final spot over 2024.)

Anyway, I think I want this season to resemble 2007, and if it were going to go that route, then Missouri would upset Bama, Indiana would top Oregon in Eugene, and Illinois would beat Ohio State this weekend. Unfortunately, I just don’t see that happening.

Respect to SEC Offensive Player of the Year front runner Ahmad Hardy and transfer QB Beau Pribula, who has been fantastic this season, I just think Alabama is the better team, and unlike last year, there may not be a let-down game on the road following an emotional win the previous week.

Leg 2: Under 46.5 points (-110) in Florida at Texas A&M

While I must acknowledge that the Aggies did score one high-profile win this season in a shootout — 41-40 over Notre Dame in South Bend — each of A&M’s 2 home games vs. SEC opponents this season have been slugfests that went under their pregame total. I know Florida found some semblance of an offensive groove last weekend in its upset win over the Texas Longhorns, but I think the 12th Man stifles some of that.

The Gators defense is good enough to keep things close, which is why I actually may lean Florida +7.5 as opposed to Texas A&M to cover, but I feel better about the under in this one. Give me the Aggies to win 23-17 and keep their unbeaten season alive.

Leg 3: Tennessee -12.5 (-110) over Arkansas

I’m blatantly ignoring the fact that the Razorbacks are coming into this matchup a new (yet also old) head coach. Sam Pittman’s out after going 32-34 in a 5-and-a-half season tenure, and Bobby Petrino, who was fired by the University of Arkansas in controversial fashion back in 2012, takes over for Pittman after being hired as the team’s offensive coordinator last year.

The Razorbacks may end up getting a new coach bump in this matchup and I could end up looking like a fool for acknowledging it here, but I’m looking past it for a bit in order to lock in the Tennessee Volunteers -12.5. I’m willing to take the risk. I know fans in Fayetteville could claim that the Razorbacks should be 3-2, or maybe even in 4-1, but I just haven’t been all that impressed, and I continue to think Tennessee is just a really good football team that should probably be 5-0.

Leg 4: Georgia moneyline (-180) over Auburn

Yes this game will be played at Jordan-Hare, yes the Tigers had an extra week to prepare for this matchup, and yes, Auburn has managed to keep things close on the road against both Oklahoma and Texas A&M this year. But I’ll be honest, I’m puzzled why this line is only 3.5 points.

We’ve got a top 10 ranked Georgia squad that hasn’t lost to an unranked SEC opponent since pre-COVID. Meanwhile, the Tigers have lost 9-straight games vs. top 10 SEC opponents when they themselves are unranked. The thought of losing this game by half a point scares me, so to mitigate that risk, I’m content with taking Georgia to win outright and extend each of those streaks.

Total: +989

The post SEC Parlay of the Week: Our 4 favorite plays for Week 7 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Additionally, we’ve already seen LSU, Illinois, Clemson, Notre Dame, Georgia and Alabama take Ls with a top-10 ranking next to their name, so this is all to say, once again, this season is off the rails, and I could not be loving it any more than I already am. I say give me all of the madness, all of the chaos and all of the upsets. I’m ready for this season to go full 2007. 

Speaking of which… 

Overreaction of the Week: This is the most unpredictable season in recent college football history!

Well, to a statement such as this one, I’d ask you to define “recent,” because if “recent” means the last 20 years, then I’d like to remind you about the glorious, wonderful mess that was the 2007 college football season. Here’s just a little taste, a nibble or a morsel, if you will, of what the 2007 season treated us to. 

• Teams ranked in the Top 5 of the AP Poll lost to unranked opponents 13 times throughout the season. Two of those instances are all-timer upsets… Appalachian State, then playing in the FCS, went into the Big House and defeated No. 5 Michigan on the opening Saturday of the season, and then Stanford, as a 41-point underdog, defeated 2nd-ranked USC in Los Angeles. 
• There were 3 weekends throughout the year when both the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country lost – LSU and California on Oct. 13, LSU (again) and Kansas (yes, the Kansas Jayhawks were ranked No. 2 in the country) on Nov. 24, and then Mizzou and West Virginia on Dec. 1. That’s right, we were this close to a Missouri/West Virginia BCS National Championship Game in 2007. 
• In total, 17 different programs were ranked in the top 5 at some point in the season – Ohio State, LSU, Oklahoma, Georgia, Virginia Tech, Missouri, West Virginia, Kansas, Oregon, Boston College, South Florida, California, USC, Wisconsin, Florida, Texas and Michigan. 

All I’m saying is, let’s just shelf this discussion for another month or so, or at least until there’s another weekend when multiple top 10 teams lose to unranked opponents again. 

Play of the Weekend: Dallas Wilson is Rumblin’, Bumblin’ and Stumblin’ his way to the end zone 

First of all, props to Dallas Wilson, a true freshman and spring-game standout who made one hell of an impact in his very first regular-season game for the Florida Gators, finishing with 6 catches for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns, including the one above. He looks like an absolute specimen out there, and it makes you wonder, if Wilson hadn’t had to miss the first 4 games of the season, maybe one of those Gators losses go the other way.

Second of all, I think maybe we’ve actually overlooked just how competitive the Gators have been. They played Miami reasonably tough, were right there against LSU despite 5 interceptions by DJ Lagway, and got beat at the buzzer on a game-winning field goal by South Florida. I think there’s a scenario where we’re looking at a 4-1 Gators squad right now instead of a 2-3 team, and maybe this thought will be enough to help Billy Napier keep his job.

Biggest Loser of the Weekend: Everyone who was expecting something more out of the 2025 Red River Rivalry 

In reality, I suppose with the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff field and Texas having a pair of losses already, this game – and every game moving forward, for that matter – is a must-win for the Longhorns, so sure, the stakes are actually quite high. But man, wouldn’t this iteration of the Red River Rivalry be much more intriguing if Texas was still ranked in the top 10 and if John Mateer was definitely suiting up for the Oklahoma Sooners? Feels like we’re missing out on a potential classic, doesn’t it? 

I know Brent Venables has hinted that Mateer might be able to give it a go – yes, in this instance, “I don’t know” feels like a hint – but I’d guess it’s more of a gamesmanship move on the part of the Sooners than a real indication that Mateer might be able to play. Make Steve Sarkisian, this week’s Biggest Loser runner-up, have to at least consider whether or not to game plan for him. I hope I’m wrong, but I’m not getting my hopes up.

Biggest Winner of the Weekend: Ty Simpson 

Back to the topic of this being an unpredictable season, I must admit that I didn’t have Ty Simpson is the best quarterback in the SEC on my bingo card, especially after Alabama got routed by Florida State back in Week 1. It’s not as if Simpson played poorly in that game, but it just didn’t feel like he was a guy who was going to be able to elevate the Crimson Tide when they really needed him to.

But after these last 2 weeks… I’m starting to reconsider, because man oh man, Ty Simpson has played some inspired football against 2 in-conference ranked opponents. Against Vanderbilt and Georgia, Simpson managed to complete 68 percent of his passes for 616 yards and 4 touchdowns, outplaying both Gunner Stockton and Diego Pavia, and vaulting himself into the top spot in my post-Week 6 SEC Player of the Year Ballot.

SEC Player of the Year Ballot 

1. Ty Simpson (QB, Alabama) – 1,478 passing yards, 13 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 70.3% completion, 2 rushing touchdowns

2. Ahmad Hardy (RB, Missouri) – 103 attempts, 730 rushing yards, 9 rushing touchdowns

3. Trinidad Chambliss (QB, Ole Miss) – 1,033 passing yards, 5 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 64.4% completion, 266 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns

4. Diego Pavia (QB, Vanderbilt) – 1,409 passing yards, 14 passing touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 71.4% completion, 352 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns

5. Joey Aguilar (QB, Tennessee) – 1,459 passing yards, 13 passing touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 65.0% completion, 2 rushing touchdowns

SEC Power Poll of the Week 

1. Ole Miss 

2. Texas A&M 

3. Alabama 

4. Georgia 

5. LSU 

6. Texas 

7. Oklahoma 

8. Tennessee 

9. Vanderbilt 

10. Missouri 

One Big Question Heading Into Week 7: Is Missouri for real?

Before the season, if you would’ve told me that Alabama vs. Missouri would’ve been the one matchup between Top 25 ranked teams this week, I would’ve told you that you were crazy since Texas vs. Oklahoma, Florida vs. Texas A&M, and South Carolina vs. LSU are all on this weekend’s slate, but alas, we’ve got the Crimson Tide heading to Columbia for a noon ET kickoff against the Tigers, and I could not be more excited.

I don’t know what to make of this game, though I do plan on including it as part of my SEC Parlay of the Week. While I do think that the Crimson Tide are a much better bet to win the national championship, I can’t stop thinking about the fact that after 2 emotional wins over the last 2 weeks — those aforementioned victories over Georgia and Vanderbilt — maybe Bama is due for a letdown? And maybe if this season is set to take on the form of that 2007 season, a Mizzou upset victory over the Tide is exactly what we should be expecting this Saturday.

All I know is, a matchup between a pair of teams ranked in the top 15 with 2 SEC Player of the Year candidates involved is must-watch television.

The post Saturday Down South’s Weekend Awards: Week 6 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Now it’s October, we’ve arrived at Week 6, and how the turntables.

Much has changed in the college football landscape, but there’s one thing that remains the same… I’m prepared to advise you on an all-SEC parlay that will hopefully win us a bunch of money on Saturday afternoon that we can then go ahead and blow on Sunday’s NFL action.

As usual, all betting lines are provided by BetMGM.

Leg 1: Texas -6.5 (-115) over Florida

Now I know that the Gators have hung tough on the road against both LSU and Miami already this season, and like the Texas Longhorns, Florida is coming into this game with an extra week of rest and prep. Additionally, the Swamp won’t be an easy place for Arch Manning and the Longhorns offense to operate, but here’s how I’m looking at this matchup… if the Texas Longhorns want to be taken seriously as a national championship contender, this is a game they should be able to win by a touchdown.

Will Texas potentially overlook the Gators with the Red River Shootout looming next Saturday? Perhaps, but a solid Longhorns defense should be able to pick up some of the slack if Steve Sarkisian‘s offense gets off to another slow start to begin this game, especially against a Florida Gators offensive attack that has only managed 11 points per game following their 55-0 win over Long Island to start the season.

Hey, speaking of overlooking an opponent with the Red River Shootout looming…

Leg 2: Kent State +45.5 (-110) over Oklahoma

Remember, the Sooners will be without John Mateer after the star transfer quarterback had surgery on his hand last week, meaning it will be sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr. getting the start this Saturday. Hawkins appeared in 7 games for the Sooners last season, earning a 1-3 record as their starter. Two weeks to prep with the rest of the Oklahoma 1s will help Hawkins be prepared, but this team’s ceiling is lower with Hawkins under center rather than Mateer.

And guys, 45.5 points are so many American football points, and yes, I am aware that the Golden Flashes lost by 48 points to Texas Tech and 56 points to Florida State. Even still, I’d advise you take Kent State, if only because you’ll be winning this bet for a decent amount of time.

Leg 3: Vanderbilt +10.5 (-110) over Alabama

Do I have a real-life bet in on the Vanderbilt money line for this game? Yes, I do. Do I have the guts to the put Vanderbilt money line in this SEC parlay? No, I do not. But man, there’s just something about Diego Pavia and this Vanderbilt Commodores squad that I like. Maybe it’s the unflinching brashness with which Pavia is approaching this matchup — if you missed it, Pavia raised some eyebrows this week when he claimed, “if we play our game, it won’t be close” — or maybe it’s because there’s proof of concept that Vandy can take the field against a supposedly superior Alabama team and play as if it’s completely unafraid of the moment.

Now sure, last season’s matchup between these 2 teams was played in Nashville and this one will be in Tuscaloosa. But one ingredient remains the same… Alabama comes in fresh off of a win over Georgia, and that opens the door for letdown potential. Will Kalen DeBoer‘s squad fall into this trap for the second-straight year? I’m saying yes, even if that means Vandy is able to hang around and keep the margin of defeat at 10 points or under.

Leg 4: Miami FL -4.5 (-105) over Florida State

Okay, okay. I know this isn’t an SEC game, but this matchup is in Tallahassee, which is practically SEC country, and I just couldn’t resist putting this game into the parlay because it’s my single favorite bet of the week. Even before Florida State’s slip up vs. Virginia last Friday, I had this one marked down as a game I knew I was going to be betting Miami in. If anything, I was bummed out that the Seminoles didn’t handle business against Virginia because I would’ve gotten even more cushion with the line.

But hey, it doesn’t really matter. I still see Miami winning this game quite easily, just as it did last year. And don’t look now, but the Hurricanes don’t have another ranked team on the schedule the rest of the way.

My advice: take Miami on Saturday night, and while you’re at it, go ahead and put a bet in on over 11.5 wins for the Hurricanes.

Total: +1230

The post SEC Parlay of the Week: Our 4 favorite plays for Week 6 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Here are our superlatives and awards following Week 5 of the SEC football season:

Biggest Winner of the Weekend: Kalen DeBoer and the Alabama Crimson Tide  

I know the first 18 months of the Kalen DeBoer era in Tuscaloosa has had some rocky moments, but let’s give credit where credit is due… just as Nick Saban did, DeBoer seemingly has the number of Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs. For the second straight year, the Crimson Tide scored an upset over the Bulldogs, and this time around in front of 90,000 strong at Sanford Stadium. 

I don’t know what the immediate or long-term future holds for the Crimson Tide, but I do know that if Kalen DeBoer continues to get the better of Kirby Smart, his leash will remain relatively long for the time being. Bama fans just need to hope that DeBoer doesn’t end up having a Clark Lea problem. 

Overreaction of the Weekend: Kirby Smart’s run atop the SEC is officially over! 

With the Texas Longhorns on a bye this week, there’s no Arch Manning overreaction to be had. That means we have to venture elsewhere for our overreaction of the week, and since we were just talking about what was happening in Athens, Georgia, last night, we may as well stay there and have a level-headed discussion about Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs, because I’m certain talking heads will be eager to fire off their hot takes regarding Georgia’s standing in the SEC this week. 

Let’s start here… I did feel as though this was going to be a down season for the Bulldogs this year. I picked the Tennessee Volunteers to beat Georgia a couple of weeks back, and that’s a pick that I stand by. I did pick Georgia to beat Alabama, and to be honest, I stand by that pick, too. But with all of that said, this clearly isn’t the caliber of team that Smart had playing for him just a few seasons ago. 

That doesn’t mean that Georgia is going to soon be relegated to the middle of the pack in the Southeastern Conference, similar to post-dominance phases that Florida, LSU and Auburn all had to endure in the last decade and a half after stints at the top of the conference. 

Take away Kirby Smart’s first season as the head coach at Georgia – a season in which the Bulldogs went a pedestrian 8-5 – and his record is 100-15 since 2017. He hasn’t lost more than 3 games in a season since then. I just don’t believe this is the year that it all unravels to the extent that Georgia can’t get it back. 

Biggest Loser of the Weekend: John Mateer 

I feel terrible for John Mateer. The Washington State transfer was arguably the best player in the SEC and one of the Heisman Trophy favorites through the first few weeks of the season, but thanks to a hand injury suffered versus Auburn that required surgery earlier this week, Mateer’s outlook is now something of a mystery. 

There is reportedly an outside chance that the junior quarterback ends up missing just 1 game – this Saturday’s nonconference tilt versus Kent State – and is able to return to the field for the Red River Shootout on October 11, but this seems like a stretch since the recovery from the surgery on his broken right hand was supposed to sideline Mateer for up to a month. And with the current college football landscape allowing for a loss or 2 on the schedule, the Sooners may be better suited to let Mateer fully recover and get ready for the long haul rather than rushing him back for a big game versus Texas. 

Regardless, it’s just a bummer to see such a promising season – one that could’ve potentially ended with John Mateer becoming the 5th Oklahoma quarterback since 2003 to win the Heisman Trophy – hit such an unfortunate roadblock. 

SEC Player of the Year Ballot 

With Mateer out for at least 1 game – and again, I wouldn’t count on him to return on October 11 — it’s opened the door for another SEC star to grab hold of the top spot on the SEC Offensive Player of the Year ballot. Starting this week and moving forward, I’ll be ranking my top 5 SEC Offensive Player of the Year candidates, in addition to ranking my top 10 teams in the conference. 

With all due respect to Mateer, Chris Brazzell II, Kewan Lacy and Mario Craver, here are my top 5 candidates to be named SEC Offensive Player of the Year at season’s end. 

1. Diego Pavia (QB, Vanderbilt) 

2. Ahmad Hardy (RB, Missouri) 

3. Joey Aguilar (QB, Tennessee) 

4. Ty Simpson (QB, Alabama) 

5. Trinidad Chambliss (QB, Ole Miss) 

SEC Power Poll of the Week 

1. Ole Miss 

2. Texas A&M 

3. Alabama 

4. Texas 

5. Georgia 

6. LSU 

7. Oklahoma 

8. Vanderbilt 

9. Tennessee 

10. Missouri 

Play of the Weekend: Trinidad Chambliss hits Dae’Quan Wright on 4th down to ice the game 

Oh Hotty Toddy, Lane Kiffin was in his bag on Saturday afternoon, and you just know that this win over Brian Kelly and the LSU Tigers was extra sweet. The capper was a ballsy and beautifully executed 4th-down call that clinched a 24-19 Ole Miss win late in the 4th quarter. 

Dae’Quan Wright was so wide open on this play, he had enough time to sit down on the field after the catch like he was a sleepy Kindergartener taking a seat crisscross applesauce for story time. If you scheme something like that up on a play with such high stakes in arguably the biggest SEC game of the week, and you get Play of the Weekend honors. 

One Big Question Heading Into Week 6: Can Vanderbilt Alabama for the second-straight season? 

I don’t have an answer for you, but I do know that this is the biggest game for the Vanderbilt Commodores football program in my lifetime. If — and that’s admittedly a Bryant-Denny Stadium sized if — the Commodores come out on top for a second-straight season, it will make Diego Pavia a full-fledged SEC folk hero, and it will also make Clark Lea a whole lot of money. And yes, it will undue much of the good will that Kalen DeBoer created for himself with the second-consecutive win over Georgia.

The post Saturday Down South’s Weekend Awards: Week 5 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Notre Dame at Arkansas — The Fighting Irish take a trip down to SEC country to face a Razorbacks squad that is going to have a chip on its collective shoulder after blowing an 11-point halftime lead in Memphis last Saturday.

USC at Illinois — Is Lincoln Riley back? More importantly, have the Illini recovered after a 63-10 beatdown at the hands of Curt Cignetti and the Indiana Hoosiers in primetime last weekend?

Indiana at Iowa — I don’t know if Iowa has the firepower to get it done, but I’ve got the Hoosiers on upset alert this week.

Baylor at Oklahoma State — Mike Gundy is a man, he’s 40, and now he’s unemployed. Could the Cowboys get an interim coach bump from Doug Meacham?

Ohio State at Washington — Is anyone else just a little bit curious why the No. 1-ranked team in the country is only favored by a touchdown against an unranked opponent?

Tennessee at Mississippi State — The chance for the Bulldogs to prove they’re for real, because it doesn’t seem their win over Arizona State did the trick.

Oregon at Penn State — There’s not much better than a whiteout at Beaver Stadium… but a whiteout on a night when a pair of top-10 teams take the field? You can’t ask for much more than that.

As usual, all betting lines are courtesy of BetMGM.

Leg 1: Ole Miss -1.5 (-115) over LSU

Do I worry that Trinidad Chambliss, who was playing Division II football last year at this time, will have his hands full against an LSU defense that has allowed only 37 points in its first 4 games of the season? Of course I do. But as I wrote earlier this week in my Week 4 SEC Weekend Awards column, “Trinidad Chambliss” is the name of a once-in-a-generation athlete and someone destined to emerge as a superstar, regardless of what sport he’s playing. With Chambliss getting his third start of the year over Austin Simmons, I like the Rebels to defend their home field, score one of the biggest wins of the entire season, and vault up the rankings in the next AP Poll.

Leg 2: Vanderbilt -21.5 (-110) over Utah State

So here’s my logic: Vanderbilt has won its first 4 games by 42 points, 24 points, 24 points and 49 points. Meanwhile, Utah State is 3-0 vs. non-SEC opponents this year, and 0-1 versus the SEC, losing to Texas A&M by 22 points on the first Saturday in September. Check all of those results again and you’ll see that the math is indeed mathin’, so give me Diego Pavia and the Commodores to win, cover and take care of business ahead of the start of a brutal stretch of SEC play.

Leg 3: Texas A&M -6.5 (-105) over Auburn

Auburn has to make the trip to College Station and deal with Mike Elko‘s Aggies and the 12th Man just 1 week removed from a hard-hitting slugfest against the Oklahoma Sooners. Meanwhile, Texas A&M will be fresh, hungry and ready for its SEC opener after getting a week off following a dramatic win over Notre Dame. I think the Aggies might roll here.

Leg 4: Georgia -3 (-110) over Alabama

I lost real-world money on this game last season, backing Georgia and feeling downright giddy after the first 15 minutes of action. Then I had to watch a football game turn into a horror movie, seeing the Bulldogs let a 30-7 halftime lead slip away against the Crimson Tide in Kalen DeBoer‘s first game in SEC play. But this game ain’t in Tuscaloosa, and I can’t see Kirby Smart letting his team drop a second straight game to Bama.

This line is a little lower than I was expecting — I had anticipated something in the 5.5- to 6.5-point range — so I’ll take the free 3 points, grab Georgia, and hope that, this time around, I’ll be celebrating a win when 2 of the SEC’s best depart the field in Athens on Saturday night.

Total Odds: +1230

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Let’s dive in!

Biggest Winner of the Weekend: The Undefeated Middle Class of the SEC 

More specifically, I’m talking about the Vanderbilt Commodores, the Missouri Tigers and the Mississippi State Bulldogs, a trio of teams that are ranked outside of the top 15 in the latest AP Poll, but are collectively a perfect 12-0 through the first 4 weeks of the season after wins over Georgia State, South Carolina and Northern Illinois, respectively, this week.  

I’m not here to tell you that Vandy, Mizzou or Mississippi State will remain major players in the Southeastern Conference into the month of November, but because the middle class of the SEC has been incredibly competitive early on this season, that makes some of the midseason matchups that looked like they lacked juice back in early August now appear a little juicier, like Saturday’s showdown in Starkville between the Bulldogs and the Tennessee Volunteers. And if you don’t think that Davis Wade Stadium is gonna be electric when the Vols come to town, just ask Kenny Dillingham and the Arizona State Sun Devils how tough it is to play there. 

Now, with that said, I do like the outlook better for both Missouri and Vanderbilt than I do Mississippi State, and that will be reflected in my end-of-column SEC Power Poll, where the Bulldogs remain outside of the top 10. However, if Mississippi State can upset Tennessee this Saturday, maybe we’ll need to revisit that conversation in next weekend’s awards column. 

Vanderbilt and Missouri both already have an SEC win under their belt… poor South Carolina. I had high hopes and the Gamecocks’ season is already off the rails. And they (Vanderbilt and Mizzou) have nonconference walkovers coming to town this Saturday before diving back into the deep end of the SEC pool starting in October. At that point, we’ll see if Diego Pavia and Ahmad Hardy can maintain their standing as 2 of the conference’s best players.  

Biggest Loser of the Weekend: Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers 

I know, I know. This is supposed to be an SEC-only column, but Clemson is right smack dab in the middle of SEC country, and the potential, if not likely, demise of this ACC powerhouse is a story worth hitting here, even if it means bending a rule that only I would enforce. Well, I suppose my editors would have something to say about that, too. 

Right now, to borrow a line from Ted Lasso, Dabo Swinney departs Week 4 looking like a bigger loser than the biggest loser from The Biggest Loser. Clemson is 1-3 for the first time since Swinney took over as head coach and could be heading toward a full-blown 2024 Florida State Seminoles sort of season if it’s not careful. Losses to LSU and Georgia Tech are perfectly justified, but getting out of the gate so slowly against Troy in Week 2 and then getting absolutely stomped by Syracuse on their home field this past weekend? Well, that’s just unacceptable, and Dabo knows it. 

“This is a bad, bad feeling. Terrible,” Swinney said after the Week 4 loss, per Heather Dinich of ESPN. “This is what we do. This is our passion. We work incredibly hard to get results that we want to get, and when we don’t get them, it’s a pain that’s hard to describe. But it comes with the territory. So we got to flush it. That’s all we can do. There’s no hope for a better yesterday.”

Now just so it doesn’t sound like I’m unfairly bashing Clemson or kicking Dabo Swinney while he’s down, I should admit that I picked Clemson to win the national championship before the season began. Oops. 

Overreaction of the Weekend: Arch Manning Got His Swagger Back! 

I was perfectly content to end the weekly bit where we’re overreacting to everything Arch Manning does, but then the Longhorns quarterback played his cleanest and most productive game of the season and we learned he got his swagger back, and now it’s time for another overreaction, baby!

“He got his swagger back,” Texas senior safety Michael Taaffe said after the win. “Everybody knew that it was in there. What he showed tonight is what we expect.”

Yeah, I expected Arch Manning to look like a superstar against Sam Houston, too. What I didn’t expect was that Arch mean-mugging a Bearkats defender after running him over would become one of the biggest talking points of the weekend. For the record, I’m not going to overreact to that.

Let’s put that behind us now. The Longhorns have a bye before heading to Gainesville to face the reeling Florida Gators, but after that, the Red River Rivalry looms, and that’s where I need to see that Arch Manning has his swagger.

Most Impressive Player I Saw This Weekend: Trinidad Chambliss 

Trinidad Chambliss is also the winner of The My God, His Name Just Sounds Like He’d Be An Incredible Athlete Award. Seriously, “Trinidad Chambliss” could be the name of an elite 2-way shooting guard, a rangy left-fielder who can hit with power, a world-class striker on the soccer pitch, a record-setter in the 200m dash, or the greatest middleweight boxer who ever lived. Instead, he’s playing quarterback for Ole Miss, and this weekend he was giving the Tulane defense fits with a dominant dual-threat performance that is going to force Lane Kiffin to make a really difficult decision… should it be Chambliss or Austin Simmons who is starting for the Rebels moving forward?

Against Tulane, Chambliss completed 17-of-27 pass attempts for 307 yards and 2 touchdowns, adding 112 rushing yards on 14 carries for good measure. By the numbers, he’s been better than Simmons, and again, the name… it’s the name of a once-in-a-generation athlete.

Play of the Weekend: Oklahoma’s ‘Hide-Out’ Touchdown

Okay, so technically, this play was illegal, but also technically, it’s only illegal if you get caught, and lucky for the Sooners, they didn’t get caught until after the game. Therefore, the play stands and so does my selection.

Honestly, I just hope this play doesn’t in any way take away from the fact that Oklahoma’s front 7 delivered a record-setting performance against former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold on Saturday afternoon. Oklahoma got to Arnold 10 times in the 24-17 win, including a safety that clinched the game late in the 4th quarter.

Combine a defense playing as well as Oklahoma’s with a Heisman candidate at quarterback (John Mateer), and we need to start thinking long and hard about where the Sooners rank among the SEC’s best. Speaking of which…

SEC Power Poll of the Week 

A friendly reminder… these rankings are based on which teams I believe have the best chance of winning the national title on January 19. 

1. LSU 

2. Texas A&M 

3. Georgia 

4. Oklahoma 

5. Texas 

6. Ole Miss 

7. Tennessee 

8. Alabama 

9. Vanderbilt 

10. Missouri 

One Big Question Heading Into Week 5: Can LSU’s offense get it going at Ole Miss this Saturday? 

I know the LSU Tigers hung 56 points on SE Louisiana in Week 4, but if that’s all the proof you can provide that LSU’s offense is in good shape as the Tigers resume SEC play, I think you might wanna reevaluate how we’re looking at wins over FCS opponents.

Against FBS opponents, LSU has mustered just 20 points per game, scoring 17 against Clemson, 23 against Louisiana Tech and 20 against the Florida Gators. And hey, speaking of that game against Florida, let’s not forget that LSU’s defense intercepted DJ Lagway 5 times, and this is what they got out of those 5 turnovers:

• LSU offense after 1st Lagway interception — 3 plays, 1 yard, punt
• LSU offense after 2nd Lagway interception — 3 plays, 12 yards, field goal   
• Third Lagway Interception — Pick-6
• LSU offense after 4th Lagway interception — 3 plays, 7 yards, punt
• LSU offense after 5th Lagway interception — 6 plays, 54 yards, end of game

In summary, that’s 74 yards of total offense and a field goal that Garrett Nussmeier and company added against the Gators following the 4 interceptions of DJ Lagway that weren’t returned for a touchdown. In total, the Tigers offense was out-gained, they lost the time of possession battle, and they were only 4-for-14 on 3rd downs against Florida.

That isn’t going to cut it at Ole Miss. I know LSU’s defense has been spectacular so far, but the Tigers are going to have to score more than 20 in order to keep up with the Rebels, regardless of whether it’s Trinidad Chambliss or Austin Simmons under center.

They better hope it’s not Trinidad.

The post Saturday Down South’s SEC Weekend Awards: Week 4 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

For the last 6 days, I’ve pondered how to handle this unprecedented failure. Should I pull a 2009 Lane Kiffin and just depart Saturday Down South like Kiffin did after only 1 season at Tennessee? Should I do what Connor Stalions did when he was confronted with being on the sideline at Michigan State-Central Michigan game, and just say “I do not recall” writing the aforementioned column? Or should I take note of what Mike Norvell did at Florida State following a horrendous 2024 season, and rebuild this things from the ground up, starting with a dominant victory over the SEC?

After much deliberation, I’ve decided to go the Norvell route. I choose to embrace this almost impossible blunder, not only recognizing it here today but also in my Week 3 SEC Awards column, and confront the SEC head on this week. That’s right, I’ve got a 4-line anti-SEC parlay this week, and I’m hell-bent on getting back on track.

As always, all odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:

Leg 1: Northern Illinois +21.5 (-115) vs. Mississippi State 

There are 4 things make me wary about thinking Mississippi State will win by 22 or more points this week:

I. Northern Illinois was a 28.5-point underdog at Notre Dame last September, and managed to go into South Bend and win outright against a team that would go on to play in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. Yes, this Huskies squad is much different than last year’s, as NIU was ravaged by the portal, but the coach and most of the staff is the same. That has to count for something.

II. The Huskies will come into the game with 15 days of rest, which means they’ll theoretically be fresh and well-prepared for what they’re walking into in Starkville. Now you could say, Well, Mississippi State beat the brakes off of Alcorn State last week, so they’re practically coming in with 2 weeks of rest too, and while that’s theoretically true, it’s also not literally true. Theoretically all 5 of my picks last week were excellent. But literally, they were all losers. See how that works?

III. Northern Illinois already covered the spread once this year against a Power 4 opponent on the road, losing by only 11 points at Maryland on September 5. Additionally, per BetIQ, the MAC is 18-16-1 against the spread this year in nonconference games, a sign that this mid-major is a little better than “mid” against the spread, at the very least.

IV. I know that Mississippi State is 3-0 and already has a win over a ranked opponent on its home turf, but are we sure that the Bulldogs, a team that was projected to finish dead last in the conference in the SEC preseason poll, should be favored by more than 3 touchdowns against a team with this sort of recent history playing the role of David vs. a Goliath?

Leg 2: Tulane +12.5 (-110) vs. Ole Miss

I’ve had action on an Ole Miss game in some form or fashion each week this season, and it just so happens that I’ve also been riding the Green Wave — pun absolutely intended — all year too, so this is a game that’s right in my wheelhouse. On the 20-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, Tulane is playing with a heavy heart and a city behind them, and it’s very possible that win or lose against Ole Miss, this will end up being the Group of 5 representative in the College Football Playoff come December. And yes, I do believe that Tulane will not only cover against Ole Miss, but perhaps even score an outright win over the Rebels.

Leg 3: Miami FL -7.5 (-110) vs. Florida 

I’m gonna be totally honest with you… I’m absolutely flummoxed by this line. I suppose the rationale behind it would be that Florida hung tough against LSU last week and as a result, there’s an expectation that they could do the same versus the Hurricanes, but I just don’t see it. I think Miami’s offense is a heck of a lot more explosive than LSU’s, and even if the defense isn’t quite as good, have DJ Lagway and Co. showed us anything to be excited about with the exception of their glorified scrimmage vs. Long Island in the opening weekend of the season?

Now I’m not going to pretend that I’ve been on Miami all year long. I thought Notre Dame would go down to South Beach and score a win over the Hurricanes in Week 1, and I expected South Florida to cover against the Canes last weekend. I was dead wrong both times, and each time, I’ve come away more and more impressed by the Hurricanes. With Clemson seemingly taking a step back, it’s looking like the opportunity for Mario Cristobal and the Canes to break through, win the ACC and go to the College Football Playoff is right there in front of them on a silver platter.

Leg 4: Sam Houston +39.5 (-105) vs. Texas 

The Texas Longhorns‘ performance against the spread thus far this season is giving off Sonny Picks SEC Games vibes, and as we’ve established, that’s not a place you want to be. Texas is 0-3 against the spread this year, and until Arch Manning, Steve Sarkisian and this Longhorns offense is able to prove they can string together 4 solid quarters in a row, I’m dubious about backing them when they’re laying this many points to any FBS opponent. I mean seriously, Texas hasn’t scored more than 37 points in a single game this year, and now I’m supposed to feel good betting them to win by at least 40 points? Something about that doesn’t sit right with me.

For that reason, I’ll take Sam Houston to make the 155-mile trip from Huntsville to Austin and keep this game within a 5-touchdown affair. And if they don’t, then oh well. I’ve already hit rock bottom with this column, and if the Bearkats lose by 40 plus on Saturday, then I should be right there in that hole with them.

The post SEC Parlay of the Week: Our 4 favorite plays for Week 4 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

This past weekend saw Texas A&M go into South Bend and win a thriller against Notre Dame. Georgia stunned Tennessee in overtime to extend its winning streak over the Vols to 9 in a row. Vanderbilt thumped South Carolina in Columbia.

Let’s celebrate the best of the weekend by handing out our SEC superlatives for Week 3:

Play of the Weekend: Marcel Reed to Nate Boerkircher 11-Yard Game-Winning Touchdown 

Nate Boerkircher had 1 single touchdown in his 4 seasons at Nebraska. Then he transferred to Texas A&M and pulled down a game-winning touchdown reception in what could turn out to be one of the most consequential games in recent Aggies history.

Biggest Winner of the Weekend: Mike Elko and Texas A&M

Ever since they joined the SEC, we’ve been waiting for the Aggies to make good on some of their offseason hype. This is a program with deep pockets and a rock solid fanbase that always seems to fall just a little bit short of where it feels like they should be. And more often than not, it feels as though whenever they have the chance to score a program-defining win, particularly in nonconference play, they’re like Charlie Brown trying to kick a football.

I know there’s some data that goes against my point here. Texas A&M actually has 8 wins from 2015 to 2024 over opponents ranked in the top 10 at the time of the matchup, but some of that is a byproduct of playing in the SEC where there are a few good opportunities each year to pick up wins like this. But this win, in South Bend, feels like a momentum shifter for Mike Elko and the Aggies. It feels like the kind of win we might look back on 5 years from now as the catalyst of a run where A&M finally wins an SEC title and finally makes the College Football Playoff.

Biggest Loser of the Weekend: Me 

I give this incredibly prestigious award to myself after finishing an unprecedented 0-for-5 in my Week 3 SEC Parlay this past weekend, which is an accomplishment in and of itself if you really think about it. I mean, if you’re doing this exercise with the intent of doing well, which, ya know, I am considering I’m actually making this wager on a weekly basis, going an imperfect 0-for-5 might be more difficult than going a perfect 5-for-5.

The Pick: Over 53.5 points in Auburn vs. South Alabama / The Result: 46 total points

None of my losses make me as angry as this one does, because at the end of the first half, I had chalked this game up as a winner. I certainly didn’t expect that when the score was 28-15 with 20 minutes left in the game that I wouldn’t get the 11 points I needed for this game to be marked down as a winner.

The Pick: Ole Miss (-7) over Arkansas / The Result: Ole Miss wins 41-35

I stand by this one, even though it ended up being a kick below the belt. Ole Miss was up by 13 in the 4th quarter, and I lost by a single point. What are ya gonna do?

The Pick: Tennessee moneyline over Georgia / The Result: Georgia wins 44-41

You know what? I stand by this one, too, because I’m still not totally certain that Georgia is a better team than Tennessee.

The Pick: South Carolina (-4.5) over Vanderbilt / The Result: Vanderbilt wins 31-7

Okay, so this one wasn’t close, but I do feel like if LaNorris Sellers doesn’t get knocked out of the game, there’s at least a puncher’s chance that the Gamecocks make this one interesting and maybe even walk out with a win.

The Pick: South Florida (+17.5) over Miami FL / The Result: Miami wins 49-12

Okay, this one wasn’t close either, but in my defense, I’m made it very clear that because this was a non-SEC game, you didn’t need to feel compelled to include it in your parlay if you didn’t want to, so I think I’m off the hook for this result.

I recognize that by bringing attention to these shortcomings, I’m not making the strongest pitch for you to return each weekend to check out my predictions, but hey, if you’re interested in some insight on the SEC slate that could influence who you bet each weekend — even if it means you’re fading me — mixed with self-deprecating humor and random pop culture references, I’ve got the column for you.

Unexpected Hero of the Weekend: Gunner Stockton 

I’ll admit that I may be in the minority here, because as you saw already, I picked Tennessee to defeat Georgia on Saturday afternoon. This was rooted in my belief that Georgia’s defense isn’t as great as it has been the last 5 years (this proved to be true) and that the Gunner Stockton-led offense wouldn’t be able to keep pace with Joey Aguilar and the Vols. That second part turned out to be a miscalculation. Stockton resoundingly answered the call, playing the best game of his career in a raucous atmosphere in front of 100,000-plus fans in Knoxville.

Stockton finished with 304 passing yards, 38 rushing yards and 3 total touchdowns, and as crazy as it is to say it, as we spend so much time looking for Heisman Moments or Heisman Performances as we attempt to figure out who will take home college football’s most prestigious award each year, this is the most notable such performance of the young season.

Overreaction of the Weekend: Arch Manning Stinks Again! 

I have a feeling we’re going to be sitting on this seesaw all season long, because this kind of erratic play is exactly what you’d expect from a young quarterback with once-in-a-generation hype who still doesn’t have a half-dozen starts to his name. I will say though, in the midst of that mid-game stretch in which Arch had 10 consecutive incompletions, I did do a quick Google search to see who the Longhorns backup quarterback is this year.

The answer? Matthew Caldwell, a senior transfer who threw for over 1,600 yards and 13 touchdowns last year at Troy. I’m not saying this is a piece of information you need to know, but that’s the kind of stuff you search for on Google when you write a college football column and frequently discuss the ups and downs of Arch Manning.

Most Impressive Player I Saw This Weekend: Ahmad Hardy 

A win over Louisiana may not carry a ton of weight, but every time Ahmad Hardy carried the rock for the Missouri Tigers on Saturday afternoon, he created an even bigger gap between himself and every other SEC running back. Hardy, the reigning Sun Belt Freshman of the Year who logged 1,351 yards and 13 touchdowns as a true freshman at Louisiana-Monroe last season, carried 22 times for 250 yards and 3 touchdowns in Mizzou’s 52-10 win. Now, through 3 weeks, Hardy is leading the SEC in rushing by a commanding 148 yards.

Things do get tougher for Ahmad Hardy and the Tigers soon enough. Missouri kicks of SEC play this week vs. South Carolina, and then after its final nonconference game of the season against UMass on September 27, an in-conference gauntlet that includes Alabama, Auburn, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M begins. But for now, Hardy is on pace — assuming he plays in at least 13 games this season — to join Derrick Henry, Ricky Williams and D’Onta Foreman as the only running backs in SEC history to rush for 2,000 yards in a single season.

Mini SEC Power Poll of the Week 

For what it’s worth, these rankings throughout the season will be based on championship equity, as in, which teams have the best chance to win the national title on January 19. 

1. LSU 
2. Texas A&M
3. Georgia  
4. Oklahoma  
5. Texas 
6. Tennessee 
7. Ole Miss 
8. Alabama  
9. Vanderbilt 
10. Auburn 

One Big Question Heading Into Week 4: How long will it be until the Shane Beamer to Virginia Tech smoke turns into a full-blown fire?  

Beamer Ball back in Blacksburg? Yeah, I’m not so sure we make it to November before this rumor is fully engulfed in flames.

The post Saturday Down South’s SEC Weekend Awards: Week 3 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Last week, 3 of the 5 legs in my SEC-only parlay hit, after 3 of 4 picks were winners in Week 1. Rather than tuck my tail between my legs and reconsider whether parlays are actually a sustainable way of making money gambling on college football, I’ve decided to fine-tune my approach and introduce 1 non-SEC leg per week from this point until the season concludes. Use it if your heart compels you. 

Let’s get into it! 

As always, all odds are via BetMGM Sportsbook:

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Leg 1: Ole Miss -7 (-110) vs. Arkansas 

I’ve been all over the place betting on Ole Miss games this year, first taking the over in the Rebels’ opener versus Georgia State (the game did go over), and then going against the Rebels, taking Kentucky to cover as 9.5-point underdogs (Kentucky did cover) in Lexington last Saturday. Do I bring up these past bets to be boastful or to pat myself on the back? Of course not! If anything, you might want to fade me this week because there’s no way this could go on for much longer. 

However, if you’re an optimist who for some unexplainable reason believes in me and my ability to handicap the Ole Miss Rebels exclusively, you could also choose to look at things this way… fade everything else I’m about to propose in this column and bet Ole Miss -7 all by itself and watch as your wallet gets a little bit fatter on Saturday night. 

Leg 2: Over 53.5 points (-118) in Auburn vs. South Alabama 

In 4 combined games so far this season, Auburn and South Alabama have topped the 30-point mark 4 times, so I must admit, while this game initially wasn’t on my radar heading into the week, I’m just a little curious as to why the total in this game is only 53.5 points.

Could it be because Auburn held Ball State to just a field goal last week? Maybe.

Could it be because South Alabama continues to work in a quarterback, Bishop Davenport, who has just 4 career starts to his name? Perhaps.

But here’s the thing, Ball State had just 1 returning starter from the 2024 season on the offensive side of the ball, so there were plenty of kinks to work out there. Additionally, Auburn is running the hell out of the football to start the year, and South Alabama is among the nation’s worst rushing defenses through 2 weeks of the season.

I’m taking Auburn to win by a final score of something like 41-21. That’s an over, friends. Mark it down.

Leg 3: Tennessee Moneyline (+145) vs. Georgia 

I’m venturing out pretty far on a limb for this one, especially considering the Bulldogs have won 8-straight games against the Volunteers, and 13 of the last 15. But here’s the thing… I don’t think this Georgia team is the same Georgia team that has won 8 straight against Tennessee. I think this Georgia team is far more vulnerable than anyone realizes — though that may not necessarily be the case, since this line has been bet down from Georgia -6.5 to -3.5 in recent days — but this might be the week that we all find out.

The key here will be Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar, who has been absolutely lights out in his first 2 starts for the Vols. The former 2-year starter for Appalachian State is plenty seasoned, and he’s yet to throw an interception in 2025. But he also hasn’t faced a front 7 that can be as dominant as Georgia’s could theoretically be. Key word here is theoretically, because through 2 games, Georgia has logged just 3 sacks.

If Aguilar has time to throw, he’s proven that he can make defenses pay. Assuming Tennessee is able to move the ball and gash Georgia’s defense with chunk plays, I just don’t believe that Gunner Stockton and the Bulldogs can match the fireworks at Neyland Stadium, where 100,000 strong are gonna be singing Rocky Top at afternoon’s end.

REMINDER: Use BetMGM bonus code SDS1500 to score up to $1,500 in bonus bets when you place your wager on the Georgia-Tennessee game or any other big-time college football matchup on Saturday.

Leg 4: South Carolina -4.5 (-110) vs. Vanderbilt 

I’m not even gonna cap, this game scares the bejesus out of me, and not just because it’s taken 3 Vicari Swain punt return touchdowns to give the Gamecocks any semblance of a spark in their first 2 games of the season. I do expect that LaNorris Sellers — my preseason Heisman Trophy pick — will get things going eventually, but we’ve seen how dangerous Diego Pavia and the Commodores can be against a ranked SEC opponent.

That said, at some point the Gamecocks are going to round into shape and start to play like the team I have bets in on to win both the SEC title and the College Football Playoff. I’m convinced of it. Why not this week then?

Non-SEC Leg 5: South Florida +17.5 (-110) vs. Miami FL

For the first 3 months of the COVID-19 pandemic, my now fiancee and I lived less than 1 mile away from the University of South Florida campus in Tampa. Don’t know if I should keep this on the down low, but I assume I’m in the clear since it’s been over 5 years and I’m currently not living in the state anymore, but I even made a habit of illegally dumping my recycling in the on-campus bins. Now I know what you’re thinking… Sonny, what are you doing admitting to a petty crime on the internet? My response is, how much trouble can I really get in for that? I was helping the environment and I was abiding by social distancing rules each time I dropped any plastics or cardboards off. There were a lot of folks in Florida doing far worse things than that in mid-2020. I mean, you’ve heard of Florida Man, right?

During that time, I always imagined that given the proximity of our apartment to campus, once the world finally got back to normal I’d be able to make my way to a few South Florida football games each year. However, we’d move by mid-June of 2020, and over the next 3 seasons, USF went 4-29, so it’s not like I missed too much.

These personal anecdotes have nothing to do with my pick this week. I’ve been genuinely impressed by South Florida each of the last 2 weeks, and even if the Bulls don’t win outright like they did in Gainesville last Saturday, 17.5 points are just far too many for the Bulls to be getting.

The post SEC Parlay of the Week: Our 5 favorite plays for Week 3 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Let’s dive right in!

Biggest Winner of the Weekend: The SEC as a Whole

For the first time in its 89 year history, one conference is responsible for 11 teams in a single AP Top 25 Poll, as the SEC boasts the teams ranked 3rd (LSU), 6th (Georgia), 7th (Texas), 11th (South Carolina), 13th (Oklahoma), 15th (Tennessee), 16th (Texas A&M), 17th (Ole Miss), 19th (Alabama), 24th (Auburn) and 25th (Missouri) in the September 7 edition of the Poll. On one hand, given the extent to which the SEC has expanded over the last decade and a half, this gives the conference a greater chance to field more teams in the AP Poll than ever before, so therefore it’s somewhat understandable why the SEC would populate such a large portion of that Top 25.

On the other hand, it’s not as if the Big Ten (now 18 teams), the Big 12 (now 16 teams) and the ACC (18 teams) haven’t grown in size either. Those other 3 Power 4 conferences — which have a total of 52 teams — account for 12 of the 25 spots in the AP Poll. So while the Big Ten can certainly boast to be the most top-heavy conference in the country, the SEC still reigns supreme if we’re talking about the deepest conference in college football.

There are still a few more roadblocks that the SEC will need to overcome to keep its death grip on that title — like Alabama vs. Wisconsin, Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame, Florida vs. Miami and Ole Miss vs. Tulane in the next 2 weeks alone — but for now, especially after scoring wins over the ACC (Vanderbilt over Virginia Tech), the Big 12 (Mississippi State over Arizona State) and Big Ten (Oklahoma over Michigan) in the span of 30 minutes of real time on Saturday night, that death grip remains tight.

Biggest Loser of the Weekend: The Florida Gators

I mean, it might be a little premature to say that a team really needed a Week 2 nonconference win, but man oh man, Florida really needed to beat South Florida on Saturday afternoon, didn’t it? It’s bad enough that the Gators couldn’t get the job done as a 17.5-point favorite in The Swamp against an in-state foe, but what’s worse is the slate of games that Florida has ahead of it now:

• Sept. 13 – at LSU (No. 3)
• Sept. 20 – at Miami (No. 5)
• Oct. 4 – vs. Texas (No. 7)
• Oct. 11 – at Texas A&M (No. 16)
• Oct. 18 – vs. Mississippi State
• Nov. 1 – vs. Georgia (No. 6)
• Nov. 8 – at Kentucky
• Nov. 15 – at Ole Miss (No. 17)
• Nov. 22 – vs. Tennessee (No. 15)
• Nov. 29 – vs. Florida State (No. 10)

Goodness gracious! That’s a slate on par with the first season of the Hulu series Paradise, where there are absolutely no misses on that schedule. The Gators came into the 2025 season feeling like a national title contender, and hey, from a pure talent standpoint they might not be that far off, at least in comparison to some teams that will be in the conversation by the time November rolls around. But there isn’t a team in the country that can run this gauntlet and make it out unscathed.

Overreaction of the Weekend: Arch Manning is all the way back!

Last week I cautioned not to overreact to Arch Manning’s difficult outing in front of 100,000 Buckeye fans in Columbus, and this week, I’m going to send a message to those of you who swung back too far and are now on the other side of the pendulum. Arch Manning is a very good quarterback who is likely going to have a noteworthy NFL career. There are some throws he’s capable of making — like his dime down the sideline last week late in the game against Ohio State, or his quick RPO strike on a slant to Parker Livingstone for a touchdown against San Jose State — that give me flashbacks to Uncle Eli and Uncle Peyton. There are also the plays he can make with his legs that Peyton and Eli just were never able to.

But there’s still some bad, too. He’s late on reads and can be a little reckless — or overconfident in himself if that’s how you prefer to evaluate it — trying to squeeze balls into windows that he shouldn’t, leading to turnovers. There are some accuracy issues that are somewhat puzzling, because sometimes his throws are so on the money it seems strange to see him spray some balls. It’s a little Justin Herbert-ish, but there are certainly worse guys you could be compared to than Justin Herbert.

Let’s just let Arch continue to progress at his own pace and not wish him into the NFL too quick. We long for continuity in college football, and if Arch did stick around in Austin for the 2026 season because he felt it would be best for his own personal progression, let’s celebrate that.

Play of the Weekend: Blake Shapen to Brenen Thompson 58-Yard Game-Winning Touchdown

Davis Wade Stadium was not only the site of one of Week 2’s biggest upsets, but also the revisiting of a vintage SNL skit, because when the Bulldogs needed it most, they delivered a play that enticed the 60,000-plus fans in attendance to respond with More Cowbell late on Saturday night.

Unexpected Hero of the Weekend: Blake Shapen

That’s right, we’re doubling up on Blake Shapen, a sixth-year senior quarterback who had amassed an 11-16 record as a starter before the 2025 season began. Sure, Shapen has a Big 12 Championship Game MVP to his name, but that distinction was earned 4 years ago, and it’s possible, if not likely, that the Bulldogs will end the 2025 campaign with no more than 5 wins, missing out on bowl season for the third straight season after making a bowl game each of the previous 13 years.

But if that ends up being the case, then that makes this heroic performance, dramatic finish and victory over the 12th-ranked Sun Devils all the more unexpected. Shapen out-dueled a Heisman hopeful quarterback in Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt and helped the Bulldogs earn their first win over a ranked non-conference Power 4 opponent since 1991. That’s right, I went with bold and italics there because that’s a streak that pre-dates my life on this planet.

Most Impressive Player I Saw This Weekend: John Mateer

This isn’t to say that John Mateer is the best player in the SEC, but his showing against Michigan told me a lot about both the Washington State transfer and the Oklahoma Sooners program. I’ll be candid and admit that I wasn’t high on Oklahoma heading into the year. I may have even made an ill-advised preseason prediction that this would end up being Brent Venables‘ last year in Norman. Now I’m reevaluating where things stand, even though the Sooners have a schedule that rivals Florida’s moving forward this year:

• Sept. 13 – at Temple
• Sept. 20 – vs. Auburn (No. 24)
• Oct. 4 – vs. Kent State
• Oct. 11 – vs. Texas (No. 7)
• Oct. 18 – at South Carolina (No. 11)
• Oct. 25 – vs. Ole Miss (No. 17)
• Nov. 1 – at Tennessee (No. 15)
• Nov. 15 – at Alabama (No. 19)
• Nov. 22 – vs. Mizzou (No. 25)
• Nov. 29 – vs. LSU (No. 3)

Good luck making it through all of that without 2 or 3 losses to your name. Shoot, if Oklahoma made it to December with only 2 losses, you can go ahead and give John Mateer the Heisman Trophy and Brent Venables a 10-year contract extension, because there’s no coming up for air once the Red River Rivalry is played on the second Saturday of October.

But quickly back to Mateer… it’s now been 8-straight games dating back to last season where Mateer has had at least 1 passing touchdown and 1 rushing touchdown in the same contest. Only Lamar Jackson and D’Eriq King have equalled a streak that long since 2015. That’s not nothin’.

The DJ Khaled Award for Another One: Vicari Swain (DB, South Carolina)

I suppose a more fitting title would’ve been Another Two, since Vicari Swain scored not 1 but 2 punt-return touchdowns in South Carolina’s second game of the season after housing one in the 2nd half against Virginia Tech last Sunday. But regardless of how clunky the title feels, I needed to take some time out in this column to shout out someone who is anything but clunky when he gets the ball in his hands.

After just 2 games and 5 punt returns in total, Swain is already just 1 punt return touchdown shy of tying the single-season SEC record, and 2 shy of the single-season NCAA record, currently held by North Carolina’s Ryan Switzer (2013) and Hawaii’s Chad Owens (2004). Because this is already a conversation through just 2 weeks of the season, I’m sitting here wondering what will likely end up being an incredibly prematurely asked question… at what point would Vicari Swain actually begin to receive Heisman Trophy hype? He’s been used sparingly on the Gamecocks’ defense, notching 2 tackles and having a forced fumble to his name already, but looking at Swain almost exclusively as a punt returner, what would his final stat line of the season need to look like in order to be able to make a true Heisman case?

If Swain were to break the single-season touchdown record and the single-season yardage record (771 yards by Maryland’s Steve Suter in 2002), as well as Maurice Jones-Drew’s single season yards per return record (28.5 yards per return in 2005), would that be enough? I know we don’t value return specialists as much as other positions, nor should we necessarily, but isn’t a guy who sets 3 single-season NCAA records worthy of some serious award recognition? How many wins would South Carolina need to get to? How many of these returns would be responsible for swinging the momentum of a big game with either SEC or College Football Playoff implications? These are the sorts of questions that run through my head every night when I lay my head down on my pillow to go to sleep.

This question has been on my mind too…

One Big Question Heading Into Week 3: Are we sure Georgia is still Georgia?

The game I’m most excited for in Week 3 is Georgia and Tennessee, and that’s because based on how the Volunteers have looked over the first 2 games of the season, I know I’m going to get an answer to the question that I’ve been thinking about since last January… is Georgia still Georgia? There comes a point where it becomes abundantly clear that a team’s imperial phase has ended. Alabama reached it last year against Vanderbilt. It happened to Michigan last year too, when the Wolverines dropped back-to-back conference games to Washington and Illinois. In those specific instances, maybe we should’ve just known that it was over as soon as Nick Saban and Jim Harbaugh walked away.

But Kirby Smart is still in Athens, and the Bulldogs are still ranked in the top 10 in the AP Poll for the 76th time in the last 77 weeks. By that metric alone, it would seem absurd to suggest that Georgia’s run atop the college football world is coming to an end. But in my eyes, there are some cracks in the armor that I haven’t seen the last few years, and when the Bulldogs head on over to Rocky Top this Saturday afternoon, we’re going to find out a lot about Kirby Smart’s squad.

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Last week, 3 of the 4 legs of our parlay hit, but any seasoned gambler knows that this does us absolutely no good. Actually, scratch that… seasoned gamblers don’t make a habit of making conference specific parlay bets, but I’ve never claimed to be a”‘seasoned gambler.” Alabama‘s no-show in Tallahassee prevented us from winning any money, and it likely prevented Kalen DeBoer from getting one single good night of sleep over the last 7 days, but frankly, I say he deserves the sleep deprivation for keeping a bunch of money out of our respective pockets last Saturday.

So we’re down one unit for the year, but a long season is ahead. Let’s make some money now, shall we?

All betting lines courtesy of BetMGM.

Leg 1: Kentucky +9.5 (-115) over Ole Miss

In a strange twist, I’m actually rolling with Kentucky after going against the Wildcats last week as they hosted Toledo in a non-conference season opener. Toledo covered the spread and for a minute there last Saturday afternoon, I was convinced I was about to make an absolute killing on this college football season. Then Alabama happened, but we don’t need to rehash that again here.

One week later, here I am backing the Wildcats against an Ole Miss squad that’s ranked, more talented, and coming off of a resounding 56-point win — yes, it was in a glorified tune-up game against Georgia State, but still. Perhaps it’s because such there was such a talent drain from the 2024 team, or maybe I’m just spooked by the fact that Ole Miss was my preseason national championship pick last year, but that all went down the drain when Kentucky came to Oxford and stunned the Rebels by the final score of 20-17.

I’m not quite ready to say that Kentucky is going to score a second-straight outright win against Ole Miss, but with the home crowd behind it in Lexington, I do think this game is played within a 10-point range.

Leg 2: Virginia Tech -2.5 (-105) over Vanderbilt

That’s right, I went against Virginia Tech last week, too, and now, I’m backing the Hokies against a second-consecutive SEC opponent. Last Sunday, Virginia Tech gave South Carolina, a team I believe is a legitimate title sleeper this year, all it could handle on a neutral field.

I know Diego Pavia is expected to capture some of that same magic for Vanderbilt this year as he did last year, and I don’t doubt that at some point this season he’ll put a scare in another top 25 conference opponent if not defeat them outright, just as the Commodores did to the Crimson Tide last season. However, this week as the Hokies make their season debut at Lane Stadium, I’m predicting that Virginia Tech will do what they couldn’t do last year in their season opener… defeat Vanderbilt.

Leg 3: Arizona State -6.5 (-110) over Mississippi State

Mississippi State has lost 11 of its last 12 games versus ranked opponents, so you don’t need me to tell you that the Bulldogs are at a significant disadvantage here. However, there are potentially 3 things working in Mississippi State’s favor heading in Saturday night:

1. All 12 of these games were versus SEC opponents.

2. The last time the Bulldogs played a ranked nonconference opponent was in 2020, when they defeated 22nd-ranked Tulsa in the Armed Forces Bowl.

3. Last year, these 2 teams hooked up early in the season — almost a year ago to the day — and the Sun Devils only emerged with a 7-point victory in Tempe.

However, that result in the desert last September against Arizona State is a bit deceiving. The Sun Devils led 30-3 halfway through the 3rd quarter before taking their foot off the gas pedal and giving up 20 points unanswered to end the game, still covering pre-game betting line of, you guessed it, 6.5 points.

I don’t see Kenny Dillingham’s squad squandering a big lead like that once again, but even if they do, I still think the Sun Devils win by at least 7 points here.

Legs 4 & 5: Oklahoma -4.5 (-115) over Michigan and Over 44.5 (-115) in Oklahoma/Michigan

The only matchup of the week between ranked opponents pits two prestigious programs with filthy rich histories against one another in a primetime battle that will go a long way in determining conference supremacy in the suddenly very interesting head-to-head showdown between the SEC and Big Ten.

Oklahoma and Michigan’s one and only meeting came 50 years ago in the Orange Bowl, and a 14-6 win gave the Sooners their fifth national title. An 8-point victory doesn’t sound too far off from what I’m expecting on Saturday night in Norman, but there should be plenty more points than the 20 scored in that highly anticipated postseason showdown.

John Mateer’s debut at Oklahoma was about as impressive as you’d expect with the Sooners hosting Illinois State last week. The Washington State transfer will likely put up Heisman-caliber numbers this season, it’s just a matter of if Oklahoma wins enough games to keep him in the conversation. Michigan will provide a solid early season test, and there’s a quarterback on the opposite sideline who will be interested in snatching that primetime spotlight from Mateer. Bryce Underwood certainly looked the part of a 5-star prospect and Michigan’s Gatorade Player of the Year in his first career start for the Wolverines, a 34-17 win over New Mexico.

The Sooners and Wolverines both boast solid defenses, but I don’t think a 28-20 final here is out of the question. In fact, I’ll go on record and say that’s exactly what we’ll be getting.

Total Odds: +2269

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It definitely didn’t appear that the conference, which at one point this century had won 7 national championships in a row, was drastically superior to the rest of the college football world.

But hey, I’m not here to rain on the SEC’s metaphorical parade. I’m here to hand out some awards to the standouts of the weekend, and I’ll be back each and every Monday this season to do the very same thing. Let’s have a day, shall we?

Biggest Winner of the Weekend: Brian Kelly

Of course, this wacky weekend of college football produced no shortage of surprising results — FSU over Alabama, South Florida over Boise State, and Tarleton State over Army all come to mind — and LSU’s 17-10 win in Clemson was one of them. Maybe folks in SEC country wouldn’t agree, and neither would the legendary Lee Corso, who picked LSU to win the title this year, but I didn’t even have LSU in my College Football Playoff field this season, so color me surprised.

Going into Saturday night’s road game against the Clemson Tigers, Brian Kelly had yet to win a season opener since taking over as the head coach at LSU. Considering LSU had been 0-3 in Week 1 under Kelly, and that Clemson was my preseason national championship pick, I penciled the Tigers (Clemson, that is) in for a win and didn’t give it that much thought otherwise. Now LSU has forced me to reevaluate everything I thought I knew about this season, and for the record, I’m not complaining.

Give me all of the unpredictable results. I want a full-blown season of chaos this year, something out of 2007, where upsets became the norm, and for a few weeks there in the middle of the season, it seemed like 20 different teams could win the championship at season’s end. As if it weren’t official before this weekend, it is now… LSU could absolutely win the national title this year. Sure, Brian Kelly was 0-3 in Week 1 games heading into this season, but in all other games at LSU he’s 29-8. And LSU’s schedule this season all of a sudden doesn’t look as daunting as it once did. Texas and Georgia are nowhere to be found, and what figured to be LSU’s toughest road test — a visit to Bryant-Denny Stadium on Nov. 8 — doesn’t look so tough anymore.

Hey, speaking of Alabama…

Biggest Loser of the Weekend: Kalen DeBoer

Let’s start here… you wanna know how badly this Kalen DeBoer situation in Alabama is looking? The first bit of research I did for this column was to see who the shortest tenured Alabama coach was. There were 3 head coaches — all pre-WWII — who only got 1 season in Tuscaloosa, but within the last 75 years, the answer to that trivia question is Dennis Franchione, who turned down a 10-year contract extension to take over as the head coach at Texas A&M because Bama was staring down NCAA sanctions that included a bowl ban. The shortest-tenured head coach that Alabama let go was Jennings Whitworth, who went 4-24-2 in the 3 seasons immediately prior to Bear Bryant’s arrival.

Now I’m not saying that DeBoer’s stay at Alabama is going to be shorter than Whitworth’s, but it’s definitely not a promising sign that there are already pieces being written about who should take over for DeBoer as the head coach at Alabama, including Jon Gruden and Jimbo Fisher, per Dari Nowkhah. Are we really sure that either one of those 2 are better options in 2025? I know I just spoke adoringly of the 2007 college football season, but we’re not in 2007, friends.

Kalen DeBoer probably deserves a longer leash than a 2-season run at Bama, unless of course things really crater this season and Alabama is flirting with a .500 record by mid-November. At that point, anything is fair game, but for now, DeBoer should be afforded the time to turn things around, even if he’s forced to deal with the well-deserved criticism that comes with Alabama’s first Week 1 loss since 2001.

Overreaction of the Weekend: Arch Manning is Overrated!

Admittedly, Arch Manning’s performance at the Shoe on Saturday afternoon certainly wasn’t the kind of game you’d expect from the preseason Heisman Trophy favorite, but I’d suggest heading to your medicine cabinet and popping open your bottle of chill pills and taking one before you say something about Manning that you’ll likely regret a couple of weeks from now.

Sure, there was far more good than bad, but I’d advise you to consider 4 things:

First, Ohio State’s defense might be really freakin’ good this season. The Buckeyes boasted the best defense in the country last year, and it’s possible we get to the end of the season and say the same thing this year.

Second, this was a pressure-packed environment for Arch to be kicking his 2025 season off in. Drop any quarterback into this situation and they likely aren’t lighting the world on fire.

Third, I didn’t love the game plan from Steve Sarkisian. It felt very vanilla to me, and maybe that’s an indication he didn’t trust his quarterback as much as he’d like, but I doubt that.

Fourth, just check out this throw:

Arch Manning is going to be just fine.

Play of the Weekend: Vernell Brown III’s 1-Handed Catch

Full disclosure, I was actually preparing to make the above Arch Manning throw the play of the weekend, simply because it was the most NFL-caliber throw I saw all weekend, but then Vernell Brown III went full-OBJ in the later slate of games, and I had to had to recalibrate.

When you go full-OBJ, you win Play of the Weekend. I don’t make the rules, I just enforce them.

SEC Debut of the Weekend: Joey Aguilar

Not only is “Aguilar” is a heck of a lot easier to pronounce than “Iamaleava,” but the transfer from Appalachian State — who started his collegiate career at the City College of San Francisco — performed extremely well in a neutral site matchup against a very game Syracuse squad. Aguilar completed 16-of-28 passes for 247 yards and 3 touchdowns, including a deep ball to Braylon Staley that went 73 yards to pay dirt in the 2nd quarter.

Aguilar is 24 years old, so he’s not just some kid who is going to be overwhelmed by the moment. He’s practically a grown man, and he played grown man football on Saturday afternoon. Next week’s matchup with ETSU will serve as a nice warm-up before Georgia comes to town on Sept. 13. That’s when we’ll see what Joey Aguilar is really made of.

Unexpected Hero of the Weekend: Vicari Swain (WR, South Carolina)

The Beamer Bowl was ugly for 3 quarters, and just when it was starting to look like Virginia Tech might be in position to sneak out another big-time ACC over SEC win, Gamecocks wide receiver Vicari Swain made the most Beamer Ball play possible, flipping the script and giving South Carolina all the momentum with an 80-yard punt return — its first since 2013 — that extended its lead to 17-8.

“It’s so many Virginia Tech games where offense is ugly and special teams finally says, all right, we’re tired of watching this. We’re just going to go score ourselves, and that’s what we did,” Gamecocks coach Shane Beamer said after the game, per Jackson Castellano of the Island Packet.

Most Impressive Player I Saw This Weekend: Dylan Stewart

I’m almost hesitant to say this, but I’m going to anyways… there were a few times when South Carolina’s 19-year-old sophomore looked a little Jadeveon Clowney-ish out there on Sunday afternoon. Clearly, he’ll fit right in once we makes the jump to the NFL and is playing every Sunday afternoon.

Stat Line: 7 tackles, 1 sack, 1.5 tackles for loss

One Big Question Heading Into Week 2: Can John Mateer and Oklahoma get revenge on the Big Ten when they host Michigan?

Better hope so, otherwise next Monday, the overreaction of the weekend might just look something like this… The Big Ten has officially surpassed the SEC as the powerhouse conference in College Football!

The post Saturday Down South’s SEC Weekend Awards: Week 1 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Each and every week during the 2025 college football season, I’ll be here to deliver to you what I believe is a money-making parlay looking only at games featuring the SEC, because hey, it just means more, right?

Let’s dive in!

All betting lines courtesy of BetMGM.

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Leg 1: Toledo +10 (-110) vs. Kentucky

This probably isn’t the best way to endear myself to what figures to be a pro-SEC readership here at Saturday Down South, but I’m living smack dab in the middle of MAC Country, baby! I’m riding with the Rockets to cover on the road down in Lexington against Kentucky on Saturday afternoon. We’ve already seen 3 MAC teams – Buffalo, Ohio and Miami (OH) – cover against Power 4 opponents on the road this week, and to me, that’s a good sign. 

Toledo is returning 63% of its production from a 2024 squad that went 8-5 and finished the season with a 6OT bowl win. There is a total of 177 starts on the Rockets’ roster, including 15 from sixth-year senior quarterback Tucker Gleason, who grew up down south in Tampa, Florida, and started his college career at Georgia Tech before transferring to Toledo after just 1 season. 

Since Jason Candle became the head coach at Toledo in 2016, he’s led his team to outright upset victories over Iowa State, BYU, Arkansas, Pittsburgh and Mississippi State, the last 2 of which came during the 2024 season. In those 2 wins, Gleason threw for 636 yards, 5 touchdowns and just 1 interception while adding 74 yards and a touchdown on the ground. I think he’s got the chops to perform in a hostile environment. 

Meanwhile, Mark Stoops is only 4 games over .500 in his 12 seasons in Lexington, and it’s not unconceivable that the Wildcats may be looking beyond Toledo to Ole Miss in Week 2. Now I hear you — Kentucky is a perfect 11-0 against the MAC in Stoops’ tenure, and the Wildcats have won those games by an average of 21 points. But this particular Toledo team could be the best of that bunch that the Wildcats have faced, and there’s not much to be excited about another Kentucky team that relied heavily on the transfer portal to bolster an otherwise so-so roster. 

By the way… this line opened at 12.5 and has been bet down to as low as 9.5 in some markets. This tells me I’m on the right track here. 

Leg 2: Alabama -13.5 (-115) vs. Florida State

Both the Tide and the Seminoles failed to meet expectations last year, though Alabama did have a case to make the College Football Playoff at season’s end, while Florida State stumbled to a 2-10 record — its worst season in 50 years.

I don’t think the stink of 2024 will linger at Alabama. I believe in Kalen DeBoer, even if there are quite a few frenzied fans in Tuscaloosa already calling for his head. I can’t say the same about Florida State, and while I’m aware that new Noles offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn got the best of Bama on numerous occasions back when he was coaching at Auburn, there isn’t a single returning starter from last season on his roster. Sure, this isn’t necessarily unheard of in the transfer portal/NIL era, but still, it feels like it will take time for the offense to jell with so many new faces in the picture.

Meanwhile, Alabama returns 13 starters from last season, including 7 on a defense that includes possible All-SEC performers such as Domani Jackson, LT Overton, Deontae Lawson and Bray Hubbard.

Even as Bama finished 2024 with its first sub-10 win season since 2007, the Tide still predictably put up a ton of points in DeBoer’s first year at the helm. With some offensive continuity and a promising young quarterback in Ty Simpson, it wouldn’t surprise me if Alabama’s CFP hiatus ended this year.

And it would surprise me if Florida State managed to keep this game within 2 scores.

Leg 3: Over 60.5 points in Ole Miss vs. Georgia State (-110)

Admittedly, getting to 61 points in a game that should stop being competitive by the 8 minute mark of the 1st quarter is potentially ambitious ask, but that doesn’t mean we can’t get there. And in recent history, Lane Kiffin‘s teams have gotten there.

In their last 10 matchups against non-power conference teams in the month of September, the Rebels have been running over their opponents at a ridiculous rate. In those 10 games, Ole Miss has scored an average of 52.7 points per game, clearing 60 points on its own 3 times. Round up and say Ole Miss scores 53 points on Saturday… all we need is Georgia State to put 8 points on the board and we’re golden.

Call me optimistic, but I think it’s possible. Coach Dell McGee’s squad hung 36 on Vanderbilt in a win over the Commodores last year, and it has a returning senior quarterback (Christian Veilleux) who attended the Manning Passing Academy over the summer.

Looks like a recipe for a game that could get to 70 points without much of an issue.

Leg 4: South Carolina Moneyline (-300) vs. Virginia Tech

Who doesn’t love some Beamer Ball? On Sunday afternoon in Atlanta, Shane Beamer‘s Gamecocks will be facing the Hokies, a program that he played for as a walk-on once upon a time and was coached by his father, Frank Beamer, from 1987 to 2015. It should be an interesting litmus test for a pair of teams that have hopes of being in the mix for a conference title in 2025.

Virginia Tech isn’t as talented of a team as South Carolina is, but there is a path to the ACC title game thanks to a relatively soft conference schedule that avoids the likes of Clemson and SMU, and sees both Miami and Louisville coming to Blacksburg. The Gamecocks’ path to the College Football Playoff will be treacherous, but it’s easy to see, and it starts with handling business in a neutral-site game against a team that has underperformed in 3 seasons under head coach Brent Pry.

My somewhat hot take is that LaNorris Sellers may be the best player in the country, and he’ll somehow find a way to lead this team through a gauntlet in October and November that includes matchups with LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Clemson. But there’s something about this opening week matchup that has me a little weary of taking South Carolina -7.5. Maybe it’s the fact that the Gamecocks nearly stumbled in their home opener last year, defeating Old Dominion by just 4 points, or maybe it’s just the heightened emotions that come with coaching against your alma mater.

I think the Gamecocks win this one, but in honor of the legendary Lee Corso, who will be calling it a career this weekend, it might end up being a little bit closer than the experts think.

Total odds: +800

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In that spirit, throughout the 2025 college football season, I’ll be taking a look at the top 15 NFL Draft prospects playing in the SEC this year. This list will be updated based on performance and the perception of each player in the eyes of both scouts and myself throughout the year.

Let’s dive in, starting with No. 1:

1. Kadyn Proctor, OL, Alabama

Comparison: An SUV that has gained self-awareness and learned how to play football. Also, best-case scenario, maybe there’s a whiff of Jonathan Ogden here. 

The Skinny: Proctor grew by leaps and bounds between his freshman and sophomore seasons, seeing his sacks allowed and QB pressures cut in half from one year to the next. There are still some consistency and conditioning issues that could give teams pause, but Proctor’s size (6-7, 360-ish pounds), his mean streak and his otherworldly power will have scouts drooling throughout the season. If Proctor puts it all together this year, he could be the first tackle off the board next April, and potentially the top overall pick in the NFL Draft. 

2. LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina

Comparison: Jalen Hurts’ intangibles with Daunte Culpepper’s arm and Bubba Ray Dudley’s glasses.

The Skinny: It would be easy to look at LaNorris Sellers as your prototypical dual threat quarterback who comes to the NFL with a clearly-defined skillset that includes all of the typical strengths and weaknesses of a player with Sellers’ profile. But there’s more than meets the eye with South Carolina‘s second-year starter. Sellers is a truly special athlete who busted off numerous highlight-reel worthy runs during the 2024 season. But he’s also a far more evolved prospect than that. His pocket presence and football IQ are incredibly advanced, especially considering he only turned 20-years-old in June. The 2026 quarterback class projects to be a strong one, and it’s not out of the question that Sellers may be the best of the bunch.

3. Arch Manning, QB, Texas

Comparison: Andrew Luck mixed with Trevor Lawrence, minus the Sunshine Ronnie Bass hair. That’s right, I didn’t compare him to one of his uncles or his grandfather.

The Skinny: Because Arch has been in the national consciousness for so long, it feels like the Texas QB is a fully-formed player and prospect. But in truth, there’s still a whole lot of projection when it comes to Arch Manning. With only 2 starts to his name and 95 pass attempts in his collegiate career, it’s not a mischaracterization to say that Arch is unproven, but then again, he also comes with a familial pedigree and a feel for the position that few other quarterback prospects will ever possess. He has the physical and mental maturity of a top-5 pick, and with the Longhorns in the national spotlight and championship hunt yet again, Manning has the chance to leave no doubts on his way to the NFL. But a trip to the NFL could wait until 2027, per Grandpa Archie.

4. Anthony Hill Jr., LB, Texas

Comparison: Depending on where you wanna line him up, Fred Warner or Micah Parsons both come to mind.

The Skinny: Even more so than Proctor or either of the quarterbacks ahead of him, Anthony Hill Jr. may be the closest thing to a surefire NFL prospect as things stand in August 2025. Hill is the most complete linebacker prospect in the 2026 draft class, and likely would’ve been the first linebacker off the board in 2025, too. He’s solid in coverage, flies from sideline to sideline and can absolutely light ball-carriers up. And if all of that weren’t enough, he’s also got the makeup of a player who could be moved to the edge if NFL defenses value his skills as a pass-rusher more than anything else. Hill had 8 sacks in 2024 on top of 113 tackles, 4 forced fumbles and a pick-6. Regardless of where Hill ends up playing in the NFL, it’s hard not to imagine multiple Pro Bowl seasons in his future.

5. Keldric Faulk, Edge, Auburn

Comparison: Calais Campbell with young legs, with the upside of Julius Peppers.

The Skinny: Faulk won’t turn 20 years old until the second week of the 2025 college season, but even as a teenager, he’s built like an absolute tank of an adult man who has the capability of playing anywhere you want him to across the defensive line. The 6-6, 285-pound Faulk showed the ability to generate pressure both on the edge and in the interior of the defensive line, and as he continues to mature, he’ll only get better. His get-off can be a step slow, but Faulk has shown he has a knack for using his length and size to his advantage, and plays with the appropriate amount of violence for a player at his position.

6. Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU 

Comparison: A not-so-irrelevant Brock Purdy.

The Skinny: Nussmeier doesn’t have the prototypical size or jaw-dropping physical gifts that both LaNorris Sellers and Arch Manning can boast, but the son of New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier plays like the son of a coach. He’s in command pre-snap, remarkably accurate delivering balls to his target, tough as nails standing in the pocket, and unlike Sellers and Manning, he’ll definitely be part of the 2026 NFL Draft class. Nussmeier was incredibly productive in his first season as the starter at LSU, but if his primary comparison is a guy who was selected with the final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, isn’t that somewhat of a concern regarding Nussmeier’s draft stock?

7. Eli Stowers, TE, Vanderbilt

Comparison: Brock Bowers, but let’s calm down about it, okay?

The Skinny: Currently the consensus top tight end prospect in the 2026 draft class, Stowers still has work to do in developing as a blocker, but adding a decent amount of muscle in the offseason should help him in that regard. Beyond that though, the 6-4, 235-pounder is the prototype for the new breed of power-slot tight ends who have a great deal of versatility as a pass-catcher. Stowers is a precise route-runner who has soft hands and has shown some promising burst as a runner after the catch. Even if Stowers never turns himself into an above-average blocker, what he brings to the table in the passing game will likely be enough that creative offensive coordinators will push to make Stowers the Vanderbilt Commodore to be selected in the first round since 2008.

8. Eric Singleton Jr., WR, Auburn  

Comparison: Pre-Gambling Suspension Calvin Ridley.

The Skinny: After 2 extremely productive seasons at Georgia Tech — including a 2024 campaign in which he became the Yellow Jackets’ first ever 1,000-yard receiver — we’ll learn a whole lot about Eric Singleton Jr. this year, his first in the SEC. Although he’s a little undersized, Singleton is a crafty route-runner with legitimate NFL speed who is willing to do the dirty work in the middle of the field or make plays on the perimeter. Singleton could end up being the first wide receiver off the board next April so long as he holds up well in the big, bad Southeastern Conference.

9. LT Overton, Edge, Alabama

Comparison: Early-career Cameron Heyward, with late-career Cameron Heyward potential to boot. I guess what I’m saying is Cameron Heyward is the comparison.

The Skinny: Similar to his Iron Bowl counterpart Keldric Faulk, LT Overton possesses the ideal size and explosiveness of a Swiss army knife defensive lineman who could line up wherever you need him to. Overton may not have as high of a ceiling as Faulk, but with 36 games under his belt, he’s got the experience in high-intensity games that suggests he should adjust just fine to life in the NFL. His production and technique leave plenty to be desired. As the kids say, he doesn’t have a big bag of pass-rushing moves, but Overton’s motor cannot be questioned.

10. CJ Allen, LB, Georgia

Comparison: Roquan Smith, and I swear it’s not just because they’re both Georgia Bulldogs. But since you don’t believe me, how about we go with Navarro Bowman?

The Skinny: It’s the speed, both in terms of play recognition and his ability to close on and absolutely rock ball-carriers, that makes the Roquan Smith comparison an appropriate one. But Allen’s current shortcomings in both pass-coverage and as a pass rusher knock him down a tier from Anthony Hill Jr. Georgia has produced at least one first-round pick in each of the last 8 NFL Drafts, and Allen is the most likely player to make it 9 straight.

11. Jake Slaughter, C, Florida

Comparison: Mike Pouncey, and yes, this is because they’re both Florida Gators.

The Skinny: You don’t need me to tell you that center isn’t the most appealing position in football, but in Jake Slaughter, one lucky NFL team will be getting a technically sound and mistake-free interior offensive lineman who didn’t allow a single sack in 2024. He’s remarkably durable and insanely smart, with scouts lauding his ability to diagnose defensive looks and make the appropriate adjustments pre-snap. A leader by any definition of the word, Slaughter could once again be named an All-American at season’s end and then head to the NFL Draft.

12. Tyreak Sapp, Edge, Florida

Comparison: A slightly smaller Cam Jordan with a serious mean streak.

The Skinny: After flirting with the idea of making the jump to the NFL Draft last winter, Sapp decided to return to Gainesville for one final season, and without playing a snap, he’s already receiving first-round buzz. Sapp has gotten stronger in the offseason, noting he increased his max bench from 385 lbs to 440 lbs. “Violence” is a word thrown around often for players at Sapp’s position, and it’s mentioned frequently in any of his evaluations. His first step and counter moves need some polish, but Sapp could continue to rise throughout the 2025 season if his production spikes.

13. Malik Muhammad, CB, Texas  

Comparison: Cooper DeJean, but not as exciting or white.

The Skinny: There’s nothing sexy about Malik Muhammad’s highlight reel, but that shouldn’t hurt his draft stock too much. Muhammad is both consistent and versatile, and though he projects most likely as an outside zone cornerback, you could move him around and count on him to hold his own as a nickel slot corner or even as a safety. You’d like to see him take a few more chances, and for that reason, he doesn’t boast huge interception or pass break-up numbers. But his special teams value and high football IQ raise his floor right out of the gate.

14. Tim Keenan III, DT, Alabama

Comparison: Daron Payne, and those are Tim Keenan’s words, not mine.

The Skinny: A big-bodied space-eater whose body used to be a whole lot bigger. Keenan has dropped from 380 lbs to somewhere in the neighborhood of 330, only he moves in a way that a guy his size shouldn’t. He’s not exceedingly explosive, but if you line Keenan up over a center, he’s going to be a disruptive presence — especially as an anchor eating double-teams against the run — whether he’s playing in the SEC or the NFL.

15. Nyck Harbor, WR, South Carolina  

Comparison: Bulked up Usain Bolt with better hands.

The Skinny: Harbor is a 1-of-1 athlete who just so happens to play wide receiver in the best conference in college football. At 6-5, 240 pounds, there is no good reason why Harbor should have any business running a 4.24 40-yard-dash, but alas, that’s where we’re at. If this Gamecock can master some of the nuances of the position — and with an offseason spent with the football program instead of with South Carolina’s track and field team — he could end up shooting up draft boards in short time. In 2 seasons, the production has yet to match the potential, but when it does, the sky is the limit.

Honorable Mention: Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee

The Skinny: McCoy suffered a torn ACL back in January, and his status for the 2025 college football season is something of a mystery. The Tennessee Volunteers cornerback has the talent to wind up being the first cornerback off the board in the 2026 NFL Draft, but as we saw with Michigan’s Will Johnson this past April, a lingering injury concern could knock a borderline top 15 prospect down all the way into the second round of the draft.

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