Starting Friday night with Alabama traveling to Oklahoma, the 2025 College Football Playoff will begin. We’ve got 2 Round 1 matchups that are nearly coin flips with 2 Round 1 matchups that are … not. Even if that plays out, it’ll give us 2 more competitive games than we had last year when Round 1 games were decided by an average of 18.8 points, and all of them were double-digit margins.

Of course, the post-Year 1 tweak of changing the byes with the 4 highest-ranked conference champs no longer earning automatic quarterfinal berths could impact that. For all we know, we’ll get 4 down-to-the-wire games that’ll make even the greatest 12-team Playoff skeptics grateful that the field expanded.

So what’s in store for Round 1?

Here’s a prediction for all 4 of those games (odds via BetMGM):

No. 9 Alabama (-1) at No. 8 Oklahoma

There’s a chance that the takeaway after the first Playoff game is that Brent Venables simply has Kalen DeBoer‘s number. A 3-0 record against the Alabama coach would indicate such a trend, especially if DeBoer’s offense once again looks like it’s stuck in the mud. While you could argue that kicking was the difference in their matchup earlier in the season, it feels like we need to see significant adjustments made from DeBoer and Ryan Grubb to jump-start an offense that faded down the stretch. Doing that against perhaps a top-3 defense in the sport in what figures to be a hostile atmosphere could change that.

So what suggests that Alabama could actually flip the script? That Oklahoma offense is the weakest unit of any that’ll take the field on Friday. The OU faithful, while glad to be back in the Playoff for the first time since 2019, could grow restless if that group is ineffective at home once again. The Sooners got into the Playoff because they could occasionally hit on that chunk pass play and wipe away a slew of 3-and-outs. Who has allowed the second fewest 20-yard pass plays in America, you ask? Alabama. That proves to be a huge asset working in the Tide’s favor.

And on the other side of the ball, Jam Miller’s potential return doesn’t necessarily turn the Alabama offense into a juggernaut, but a healthier unit does what DeBoer said it would do moments after the blowout loss in the SEC Championship. It takes advantage of the opportunity. DeBoer improves to 4-0 vs. AP Top 10 teams in true road games, and Alabama earns a trip to the place that hosted the final game of the Nick Saban era, the Rose Bowl.

Score prediction: Alabama 24, Oklahoma 20

No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M (-3.5)

History is working against Miami in a couple ways. For starters, Mario Cristobal has 1 career true road win vs. an AP Top 10 team. It was back in 2021 when he led Oregon to an impressive win at Ohio State (it was also in early September). But this is perhaps the more startling reality entering this matchup. Miami is trying to become the first ACC team to win a New Year’s 6/Playoff game since 2019 Clemson. Don’t believe me? Read ’em and weep:

• 2020 Rose Bowl: Alabama 31, Notre Dame 14*
• 2020 Sugar Bowl: Ohio State 49, Clemson 28
• 2020 Orange Bowl: Texas A&M 41, UNC 27
• 2021 Peach Bowl: Michigan State 31, Pitt 21
• 2022 Orange Bowl: Tennessee 31, Clemson 14
• 2023 Orange Bowl: Georgia 63, Florida State 3
• 2024 CFP First Round: Texas 38, Clemson 24
• 2024 CFP First Round: Penn State 38, SMU 10

*Spent 2020 COVID season as ACC team

To recap, that’s an 0-8 mark with 0 games decided by single digits and an average margin of defeat of 22.6 points. Woof. That’s why the ACC will be a 1-bid league until further notice. So how is it that a team that couldn’t even play for an ACC title in a league that crowned a 5-loss conference champ have any chance of going on the road and winning in front of 108,000 people?

Well, that’s far from a given, but there’s a path. Miami’s ground game is the key to this. Specifically, a healthy Mark Fletcher Jr. is the key after he was banged up mid-season, but is expected to be good to go for Saturday after he forced 40 missed tackles on 141 carries. Miami would prefer not to let Cashius Howell and that Texas A&M pass rush pin its ears back against Carson Beck, who has benefited from the lowest pressure rate among FBS quarterbacks (14.7%). What’s the best way to do that? Run the football. Like, run the football against the A&M run defense that surrendered over 200 yards on 4 different occasions, 3 of which were in the latter half of the season.

Miami can lean on A&M and take the Marcel Reed-led offense out of rhythm. That leads to a couple of timely mistakes by A&M. Instead of this being a coronation for the promising start to the Mike Elko era, it turns into a painful reminder that ascending into Tier 1 in college football is no small feat. Miami ends the ACC drought.

Score prediction: Miami 31, A&M 24

No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss (-17.5)

We all want to know how big of a difference it’ll be for Ole Miss without Lane Kiffin. That storyline will be evident considering that this was a 45-10 Ole Miss beatdown when these teams met in Oxford back in September. The context that’ll be lost is the fact that Kiffin wouldn’t necessarily be guaranteed to lead another 35-point victory against a Tulane team that Ole Miss seeing for the second time. BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff now has more experience in this offense, and like we’ve seen with plenty of Jon Sumrall teams, that defense has been much improved since the calendar turned from October to November even amid speculation that their head coach was off to his next job.

You get it. This doesn’t feel like it’ll be another 45-10 game. That’s not an indictment of the Ole Miss offense, which won’t have Kiffin but will still have Charlie Weis Jr. and several members of that offensive staff to guide Trinidad Chambliss and Co. It’s more a testament to a Tulane defense that allowed an average of 18 points and 60.4 rushing yards/game in its last 5 contests. Will Tulane suddenly shut down an Ole Miss offense that averaged 8 yards per play in the first matchup? No way. Tackling Kewan Lacy is still going to be a tall task after he forced the most missed tackles of any Power Conference running back, and getting pressure on Chambliss will be an uphill battle after he had 419 scrimmage yards (307 passing, 112 rushing) in the first matchup.

There’s too much of an established identity on the Ole Miss side of the ball to think that Kiffin’s absence will flip a 5-touchdown result, but much like we’ve seen throughout this season, it’s perhaps another game in which things are never truly out of reach. Ole Miss survives its first game of the post-Kiffin era.

Score prediction: Ole Miss 28, Tulane 17

No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon (-21.5)

Let me get out ahead of something here. We don’t need to bang the drum for change if James Madison is blown out in Eugene. I already outlined how much the ACC has struggled to be competitive in the biggest games in the 2020s. Even if Notre Dame, Vanderbilt or Texas would’ve given us a better game, this still only happened this way because the ACC had a 5-loss conference champ. We don’t need to gate-keep JMU just because there could be a 2-hour stretch in our lives in which we realize that 2 teams aren’t on the same level. Shoot, we forget how many moments that we had that in semifinals of the 4-team Playoff.

OK, that’s out of the way, right? Good.

Yeah, I don’t think this will be particularly close. Among the Playoff quarterbacks, Alonza Barnett III has the worst adjusted completion percentage (54%) under pressure. That’s advantage, Oregon. This year’s version of the Ducks hasn’t had a dominant pass-rush, but in a 1-game scenario against an inferior opponent, Dan Lanning can dial up some pressure. Meanwhile, Dante Moore’s biggest improvement since his arrival at Oregon has been throwing under pressure. His 73.5% adjusted completion percentage ranks No. 3 among those Playoff quarterbacks, and he’s only taken 13 sacks this season.

Oregon has a better chance of staying on schedule, which will open things up for those chunk plays. For a team that was No. 2 in America in 20-yard scrimmage plays per game, that bodes well. Yes, there’s some concern that Oregon’s Playoff outlook took a hit with both coordinators, Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi, taking Power Conference head coaching jobs. But in this matchup, I fully expect Lanning’s team to show up prepared and look the part in a lopsided home win.

Score prediction: Oregon 45, James Madison 21

Get in on the action this weekend by checking out our list of the best real money betting apps ahead of kickoff.

The post Predictions for each Round 1 Playoff game appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Where will DJ Lagway be in 2026?

That question ramped up after Billy Napier‘s firing, though it reached a fever pitch on Monday when the former 5-star quarterback announced that he’ll be entering the transfer portal. Ultimately, that means that unless Lagway has a change of heart, he won’t be the face of Buster Faulkner’s first offense at Florida. Considering how Haynes King was used in Faulkner’s offense at Georgia Tech, it’s not a surprise to see someone who has dealt with multiple injuries during the first 2 years wasn’t an obvious fit.

But where would Lagway fit after a lost season wherein Florida’s 4-8 record fell well short of what we expected to see from the preseason All-SEC quarterback? Is someone with 23 interceptions in essentially 1.5 seasons worth of starts going to scare teams off? Or is there still enough meat left on the bone to make some premier programs pursue Lagway? Both things can be true.

What’s clear is that Lagway will indeed have a market. But today, let’s tackle the new most intriguing question.

Where could we see the best version of Lagway in 2026? Here are 5 fits that would make a ton of sense:

LSU

I mean, Lane Kiffin retweeted the initial Pete Nakos report of Lagway’s decision to enter the portal, which would suggest that he could be a target for the new LSU coach:

Whether that was just Kiffin being Kiffin in some attempt to troll Florida — let’s not forget that Kiffin’s “spot the ball” post was a not-so-subtle jab at the Gators’ mantra — or actual interest remains to be seen. From Lagway’s perspective, all he could do is look at what Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr. did with Trinidad Chambliss, who entered the season as a Division II transfer and became the No. 8 vote-getter in the 2025 Heisman Trophy voting. Kiffin’s track record with transfer quarterbacks also includes Jaxson Dart, who became an All-SEC quarterback and a first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Both of those things were once considered likely boxes for Lagway to check, but a combination of poor decision-making, injuries and Napier’s play-calling have gotten in the way of that. Kiffin didn’t tolerate Austin Simmons’ interceptions, but it’s worth remembering that he stood by Matt Corral in 2020 when he had multiple Lagway-like games with 5 interceptions, and that yielded a 7th-place finish in the 2021 Heisman voting. It’s also worth noting that Chambliss had the lowest pressure rate in the SEC at 20.5%, and No. 2 on that list was Garrett Nussmeier at LSU, who figures to have several offensive linemen returning.

Nobody should be surprised if Lagway, who ended Kiffin’s Playoff hopes as a true freshman in 2024, crosses enemy lines.

Tennessee

I swear this isn’t just a list for Florida’s rivals. Do I think this is an obvious destination? I don’t, but after my Saturday Down South Podcast co-host Will Ogburn threw out this idea nearly a week before Lagway’s transfer announcement, I thought about it more. The more I thought about it, the more I liked the potential fit.

While there would definitely be a scheme adjustment for Lagway to make, Josh Heupel‘s offense just took a mistake-prone guy like Joey Aguilar and turned him into the leader of the No. 7 scoring offense in America. Mind you, that was as a post-spring transfer in an up-tempo offense. Aguilar only took 17 sacks on the season thanks in part to that tempo, as well as a new-look offensive line that found its groove early on. That included paving the way for a ground attack that averaged 175 yards per game. Lagway won’t be tasked with scrambling in that offense, and a handful of designed runs aren’t going to make him a weekly injury risk.

Let’s remember that while Faizon Brandon’s signing with Tennessee has him billed as the “quarterback of the future” in Knoxville, he’s 17 years old. Heupel starting a true freshman doesn’t seem like it would be his ideal choice to appease that talented group of skill players, which included SEC Freshman of the Year Braylon Staley. Heupel has typically favored more experienced signal callers, and while some might compare Lagway’s skill set to the talented but often underwhelming Joe Milton, a 45.5% adjusted completion percentage on deep throws in 2 years at Florida (Milton was No. 15 in the SEC with 32.8% on those throws) would suggest otherwise.

The Vols could do much worse than Lagway to address their 2026 quarterback situation.

Texas Tech

The fightin’ Cody Campbells would have a whole lot to sell Lagway on. There’s the obvious. That is, the transfer portal spending at Texas Tech was unprecedented, and it resulted in unprecedented success in 2025. No matter what happens with guys from the 2025 Texas Tech squad who leave for the NFL, one would think it’s not going to be a situation wherein Lagway is looking around and wondering where the help is. With the benefit of that offensive line restructuring, Behren Morton had a 23.6% pressure rate on drop-backs, which was No. 3 in the Big 12, and he also took just 17 sacks in Mack Leftwich’s run-and-gun offense that didn’t ask him to be Superman.

In a conference that saw former blue-chip SEC quarterbacks like Conner Weigman and Sawyer Robertson become the best versions of themselves, Lagway could follow a similar path. After the gauntlets that he saw in his first 2 years at Florida, perhaps there’d be some appeal to joining the Playoff team from a 1-bid league.

But I suppose I buried the lede here with the other thing that Joey McGuire could offer that the other programs on this list cannot. That is, an opportunity to return to the state of Texas. Lagway’s Lone Star State roots were a popular topic of conversation both during his recruitment and after he arrived at Florida. The ability to play closer to his tight-knit family, albeit 7 hours west of his hometown of Willis, Texas, could give Lubbock a geographical boost.

Texas Tech figures to be a major player in the portal market for its next signal-caller. If 2025 was any indication, a household name like Lagway could covet a situation like that.

Miami (FL)

Tell me that Lagway didn’t look across that sideline and think about how favorable Carson Beck had it with Shannon Dawson at Miami, where former transfer Cam Ward spent his final season before he became the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. That appeal isn’t just living in South Beach or joining the more favorable ACC, which sent Miami to the Playoff as its lone participant. Shoot, it wouldn’t even just be throwing to Malachi Toney, who could be the best non-Jeremiah Smith receiver returning in the sport in 2026.

All of that has to be appealing. But you know what else should be part of that sell? Beck had games where he didn’t even get touched. He only took 9 sacks in 12 games, and he only got sacked multiple times twice. His 14.7% pressure rate is easily the best in FBS among quarterbacks with at least 50 pressured drop-backs (the aforementioned Chambliss is No. 2 at 20.5%). That’s what a Mario Cristobal-coached offensive line combined with Miami’s spending will do for a quarterback.

Miami pursued Beck even though he dealt with ball-security issues in a regressed 2024 season in which he had 20 turnover-worthy plays. In a regressed 2025 season in which Lagway had 18 turnover-worthy plays, he could seek a similar reset with more advantageous surroundings on the other side of The Sunshine State.

Kentucky

You had me at “Will Stein offense.” Bo Nix, Dillon Gabriel and Dante Moore all became the best, most well-protected versions of themselves after transferring to Oregon, where they got to learn from and play in Stein’s offense, which has since migrated to Lexington. Yes, Cutter Boley remains the most natural choice for Stein’s first offense, but let’s remember that Stein has earned the right to hand-pick his quarterback, and not necessarily default to the one that Mark Stoops hand picked. If that’s Boley, that’s fine. If that’s the guy who had mixed results in a pair of showings against Kentucky, that’s fine, too.

At Kentucky, Lagway could hit the reset button at a place that opened the season with 3 consecutive disappointing transfer quarterbacks (I’m including Week 1 QB1 Zach Calzada in that discussion after Stoops somehow hand-picked him). They’re starving for decent quarterback play. Lagway might not guarantee that, but if anyone can turn his fortunes around, it’s Stein.

And if he ends up following Billy Napier to James Madison …

Well, let’s just say he won’t be getting a play-calling upgrade.

The post 5 places where we could see the best version of DJ Lagway appeared first on Saturday Down South.

After the Vanderbilt quarterback became the 27th player in SEC history to earn a top-2 finish in the Heisman Trophy voting, the runner-up simply could’ve enjoyed a night out in New York City with his family, friends, his offensive line and seemingly anyone else who wanted to partake in the Pavia party. He could’ve celebrated the fact that the college football masses decided that he needed to be in New York on Saturday night, and if not for the similarly improbable run by Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza, Pavia would’ve been enshrined into the ultimate fraternity. Pavia could’ve literally raised a glass to his supporters and finished off a toast at a private party with “f— the voters,” continued on warpath to national relevance and nobody would’ve had any reason to change their opinion of him.

Instead, Pavia did the worst possible thing — he posted that message on his Instagram story.

Dumb, dumb, dumb.

Pavia made a dumb decision that could cost him dearly at this critical juncture in his life, wherein the margin for error for a sub-6 foot quarterback with more of a wrestler’s build is razor thin. It’s even thinner for those who don’t want to take the high road.

Yes, Pavia apologized 24 hours after he finished as runner-up. Clearly, someone told him that what he did was immature, petty and altogether, dumb.

What a shame. What a shame it is that people who gave Pavia the benefit of the doubt no longer have any reason to do so. You could forgive bravado because Pavia, in nearly every way, backed it up. Because kids do dumb things, you could even forgive Pavia for urinating on the New Mexico logo while he was the quarterback at New Mexico State, which didn’t make the final cut of his Heisman story while millions waited to see if he was about to win college football’s top individual honor.

But f— the voters? Nah. You see, 189 of those voters did indeed believe that Pavia was the best player in America and worthy of the Heisman. Another 352 penciled in Pavia as the No. 2 spot.

Personally, I was in that second group. I debated Mendoza and Pavia for multiple weeks, but ultimately went with Mendoza after he led Indiana to its first outright Big Ten Championship since 1945, and did so with the No. 2 QB rating in the second half/overtime among all Power Conference quarterbacks in the last decade (2023 Jayden Daniels was the only one who was better). Voters had no reason to “gate-keep” a player like Pavia because the winner came from Indiana, AKA the school with more losses than anyone in the history of the sport.

Pavia’s bitterness doesn’t stem from some in-depth breakdown he did of Mendoza’s play; it stems from his competitive ways. You can argue both that you, reader of this column, believed that he deserved to win the award and that Pavia’s edge is what has gotten him to this point, which comes out in everything he does.

You know where Pavia’s competitive edge didn’t have to come out, though? In a bitter Instagram story.

It’s equally concerning that he not only hit “send,” but that there was nobody close to him who advised against him hitting “send.” Coming from a Vanderbilt school that’s known for being smart, everything about that was dumb.

If Pavia wants to tell anyone he encounters for the rest of his life that he deserved to win the 2025 Heisman, that’s his right. Lord knows the late Pete Rose did his own version of that in his remaining days, and he had plenty of people who encouraged him to do so. But unlike the bitter Rose, Pavia’s story is supposed to have plenty more chapters.

Taking the high road, even with a not-so-subtle reference to the voting results, could’ve been posting that picture with all of his offensive linemen that read “never daunted.” We would’ve all had the reaction of “well, Pavia is telling himself that he got snubbed by Heisman voters and he plans on using it to motivate him with whatever his next chapter of football looks like.” That would’ve been on-brand while toeing the line between competitiveness and bitterness.

That didn’t happen, though. Instead, a guy who has already rubbed plenty of people the wrong way did something that even his closest allies probably didn’t approve of.

What do you think Clark Lea‘s reaction was when he saw that the guy he’s been banging the drum for posted “f— the voters” on his Instagram story? Dismay? Disgust? Humiliation? All could apply. After all, Lea is the same coach who responded to Vandy’s Playoff exclusion like an adult.

That’s what maturity looks like. Or rather, that’s what the high road looks like.

Pavia’s apology won’t erase what was an unnecessary blunder that could give potential partnerships pause to work with him. You don’t have to go back very far to see examples of NFL Draft stocks plummeting for backup quarterbacks who come with baggage. This goes beyond Pavia’s bank account and his NFL Draft stock, though. This is someone who has made a legitimate case to have a statue built for him outside of Vandy’s newly renovated stadium. His legacy at Vandy could last decades, but not if he makes dumb decisions like the one he made after he didn’t get the award he coveted.

Pavia has earned the right to respond confidently in any situation that presents itself. If he just followed the status quo throughout his life, he probably would’ve spent Saturday night coaching in a high school wrestling tournament somewhere in New Mexico instead of celebrating a Heisman Trophy invite in New York.

But Pavia’s celebration will now be part of his story. The high road means owning that dumb decision.

The post Diego Pavia’s bitter runner-up reaction — even with an apology — was dumb on every level appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Forecasting potential candidates comes with a few obvious caveats. Being a Heisman candidate often means being on a team that’s relevant, and history suggests that playing quarterback usually matters. That’s obvious.

What we don’t know is whether certain draft-eligible players will return, so there’ll be a heavy emphasis on underclassmen in the crystal ball. What’s also less obvious is who can actually emerge as a candidate. Don’t believe that? Then ask yourself if you would’ve predicted Diego Pavia would earn a trip to New York.

This is tougher than it looks. But hey, let’s take a crack at it.

These are the SEC‘s top 5 Heisman candidates for 2025:

5. Ahmad Hardy, Mizzou RB

This last spot was for Hardy or Jadan Baugh. As much as I love Baugh, I question if Florida will put together a season that’ll covet that type of consideration with a Year 1 coaching staff. Hardy, on the other hand, will have the benefit of staying in the same scheme with the same elite proven rushing attack. All Hardy did in his first year at Mizzou was run for an SEC-high 1,560 rushing yards, 1,111 of which came after first contact, which was the best among Power Conference players. Hardy is a decent bowl game from surpassing 3,000 career rushing yards before he’s even draft-eligible. The guy has already had 4 games with 200 rushing yards, so having a Heisman moment is always on the table.

The only reason that Hardy isn’t even higher on this list is because he’s got a tougher bar to live up to. He’s already such an accomplished player that he might be working against himself. We’re now a decade removed from a running back winning the Heisman, so it might take a 2,000-yard season from Hardy to get there.

4. Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss RB

Similar to Hardy, Lacy was a monster in his new home. The former Mizzou transfer led Power Conference players with 86 missed tackles forced (Hardy was right behind him with 85), en route to shattering the Ole Miss single-season rushing touchdown record (20). If Ole Miss gets 2 more games, he could realistically get to 24 rushing touchdowns and 1,500 yards. The only other SEC player to ever check both of those boxes in the same season was … the last running back to win the Heisman, AKA Derrick Henry.

Lacy took on more carries than any Power Conference back, so you don’t have to question what his workload will look like. What’s fair to question is what potentially new surroundings will look like. John David Baker is returning to Ole Miss after he ran a prolific rushing attack at East Carolina. Is there a possibility that Lacy joins Lane Kiffin at LSU? That remains to be seen. Either way, Lacy is poised to get a ton of work and be the face of a potent offense.

3. Arch Manning, Texas QB

I know, I know. You don’t want to hear about more Manning hype. Hey, he’s only at No. 3 on this list. But let’s put some context on this. Manning didn’t live up to monstrous preseason expectations. Duh. The only way he would’ve done that would’ve been if he had been in New York. So what makes us think that he could have a chance to get there in 2026? Didn’t he struggle with accuracy? And didn’t he have a 121.0 QB rating in true road games? You bet. That’s what we call “meat left on the bone.”

Manning had a disappointing season, yet he still racked up 33 touchdowns (24 passing, 8 rushing, 1 receiving) and 3,190 scrimmage yards in a 12-game regular season. He made plenty of next-level throws and showed plenty of the traits that made him such a decorated recruit. Kevin Jennings was the only FBS quarterback who had more touchdown passes under pressure than Manning (8), and he had 11 touchdown passes on throws 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. The problem was that he wasn’t consistent enough and he left too many of the easy yards on the table with just 5.4 yards/attempt on passes 0-9 yards from the line of scrimmage. Manning has to clean up his accuracy issues and get better offensive line play, but even if that’s not a drastic improvement in Year 2 as a starter, a 40-touchdown season for a Playoff-bound Texas team is a fairly realistic bar to reach.

2. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M QB

Reed was a legitimate Heisman candidate heading into the final weekend of the regular season, and if he had made it to Atlanta, he likely would’ve followed it with a trip to New York. That’s more than anybody else on this list can say. Reed had 31 touchdowns and 3,398 yards in a 12-game regular season. He’s a dual-threat quarterback, which seems to be a prerequisite in the Playoff era. There’s a feeling that Reed is already one of the nation’s best quarterbacks, but he’s still got room to take his game to another level.

One of the challenges facing Reed will be adjusting to a new offensive coordinator after Collin Klein’s return to Kansas State. We also need to see what happens with a veteran-laden offensive line, which played a massive role in Reed getting sacked just 9 times. Those could hinder a progression, but Reed’s ability to develop as a downfield passer will determine if this is on the table. At the very least, Texas A&M will have the most decorated quarterback it had since … well, you know.

1. Gunner Stockton, Georgia QB

It’s possible that we’re just scratching the surface with Stockton’s statistical potential. We’re already seeing all the intangibles of his game play out in a scary, who-wants-to-face-Georgia sort of way. Stockton had 3,133 scrimmage yards and 31 touchdowns for the SEC champs. Beyond filling up the stat sheet as a dual threat with a nose for the end zone, Stockton had a 162.2 QB rating vs. teams that are currently in the AP Top 25, which is No. 1 among quarterbacks with 2 such starts. He’s been every bit as clutch as Georgia hoped he’d be.

We saw Stockton post a 17-1 TD-INT ratio when blitzed, yet he could burn teams that turned their back on him in man coverage. That’s an elite combination for someone who broke the mold of a Kirby Smart era quarterback because of all the designed runs. Stockton had an improved group of Georgia pass catchers to work with in 2025, but he was still subjected to 6 drops on passes of 20 yards, which was the most of any SEC quarterback. Those types of throws only made up 13.2% of Stockton’s attempts (No. 10 in the SEC), yet he had a 46.5% adjusted completion percentage on those throws and he had the SEC’s best adjusted completion percentage (71.4%) on intermediate throws. Oh, and he led the FBS with a 78.7% adjusted completion percentage on throws under pressure. In other words, he can attack downfield and that can become an even bigger part of Georgia’s offense next year.

If that happens, we could be talking about the first Georgia Heisman winner since Herschel Walker.

My guess is that Ty Simpson and Trinidad Chambliss will be gone, but if they’re not, they’re replacing the RBs on this list

I just wanted to note that in case somebody missed the intro and lost their minds that I didn’t include those 2.

The post The SEC’s top 5 Heisman Trophy candidates for 2026 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

My Saturdays aren’t spent traveling to various campuses, wherein my full attention is only on 1-2 games. Don’t get it twisted, though. Being at a game in-person is second to none, and I try to do that at least once during the regular season, as well as the SEC Championship and a bowl game.

But filling out a Heisman ballot, to me, means watching as much football as humanly possible during a given fall Saturday. YouTubeTV Multiview — when it isn’t involved in disputes with Disney — has made that responsibility much more manageable. Oh, Texas Tech is playing West Virginia? Throw it on the Multiview. Ah, Ohio State travels to Washington? Multiview. Ole Miss is hosting LSU? Multiview for the next 12 hours, please and thank you.

I try to watch as much football as I can so that I’m not relying on the opinions of others to help crown college football’s ultimate reward. In my unbiased opinion, the prestige of the Heisman tops any individual award in sports. It deserves people who approach it that way. My annual goal is to make sure I’m always one of those people.

I preface this annual column that way because again, there’s a good chance that you’ll disagree with how I filled out my ballot, and that’s totally fine. But any perceived disagreement won’t be from a lack of watching these guys on Saturdays.

So, here’s what my 2025 Heisman ballot looked like (we get 3 spots and we rank them 1-3):

I didn’t have Julian Sayin or Jeremiyah Love on my ballot

Why not?

Let’s start with Sayin, who has been every bit as advertised as a former 5-star recruit who left Alabama in the wake of the Nick Saban retirement and has blossomed into the next great Ohio State quarterback. Outside of a having a back like Love to hand the ball off to, I’m not sure how Sayin could have better surroundings to operate in. Jeremiah Smith is the best receiver in America, and there are plenty of fall Saturdays in which I think Carnell Tate is worthy of that title. Sayin has arguably the best defense in the sport, too, so short fields and second-half leads are something he benefits from.

Sayin is unbelievable under pressure — his 78.1% adjusted completion percentage on throws under pressure is No. 2 in the FBS — so it’s not as if he’s only seen clean pockets and open receivers. But I do look at how much he benefits from ideal surroundings, and how noticeably different it was for Sayin in that Rutgers game when he didn’t have those 2 elite receivers. If I think a guy is the 3rd-best player on his own offense, I can’t pick him to be 1 of the 3 best players in the sport.

As for Love, I’d probably argue that he’s the best running back in the sport. The eye test tells me that, and not just because he hurdles in-position tacklers more casually than I take out the trash. Love is a walking, talking highlight-reel play waiting to happen, which is why he tied for the FBS lead with 7 runs of 40+ yards. He’s awesome, and it would’ve been awesome to watch him in the Playoff again.

But ask yourself this — what did he definitively do better than any running back in America? He was No. 4 in FBS in rushing yards, which is hardly the only metric to evaluate elite running back play, but it’s not like he had some 1,800-yard season. The efficiency was exceptional at 6.9 yards/carry, but among Power Conference backs with at least 100 carries, that was No. 3. He was No. 2 among Power Conference backs in both rushing touchdowns (18) and yards after first contact (896). Love had 56 missed tackles forced, which is a solid number, but it was No. 8 among Power Conference backs and a reminder that he benefitted from an experienced offensive line. Sure, he added value as a pass-catcher, but that felt like more of an afterthought in the last 2 months of the season. He’s an exceptional player who didn’t quite warrant a top-3 spot for me.

Love and Sayin both had tremendous seasons, and it was perfectly fine that they got an invite to New York. I just would’ve rather seen Jacob Rodriguez there.

3. Jacob Rodriguez, Texas Tech LB

It ended up being 21 teams, 2 of which are in the Playoff.

Wait, I thought you asked the question, “How many teams forced fewer turnovers than Rodriguez did this season?”

It’s an absurd stat to think about. Forcing 11 turnovers (7 forced fumbles and 4 interceptions) is the type of thing that some All-Americans don’t do in an entire career. Yet Rodriguez did that for a Texas Tech team that won the Big 12 Championship for the first time ever, thanks in large part to a defense that’s No. 3 in the FBS in both scoring defense and yards/play allowed. There’s playmaking, and then there’s whatever Rodriguez was in the middle of the Red Raiders’ defense.

It’s not just the turnovers, either. He had 104 tackles and 10 tackles for loss, but more importantly, PFF had him tied for the Power Conference lead with 65 defensive stops. Rodriguez is omni-present, and not just because he also got a pair of rushing touchdowns on offense (he also had a bad interception when Joey McGuire got a little too cute). That’s remarkable production for someone who has been so dominant that he’s spent plenty of 4th quarters on the bench for a Texas Tech team that won all 12 of its games by at least 3 scores.

Yes, part of the appeal of Rodriguez is his story. You can’t watch one of his games without hearing about how he’s a former Virginia quarterback who walked on at Texas Tech, and then married a Black Hawk helicopter pilot. But even if you’ve got a little bit of fatigue from that weekly broadcast staple, he’s undoubtedly been the best defensive player in college football. It’s a shame that he didn’t get a chance to hear his story told another time in New York.

2. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt QB

Hate Pavia’s swagger if you want, but don’t deny his place among college football royalty. It’s not just that he led Vanderbilt to its first 10-win season in program history; it’s how he did it. He might not have had the statistical profile that most Heisman finalists have in their first 2 months of the season, but you could make a case that he was the best player in America in November:

• 465.5 yards of offense/game (No. 1 in FBS)
• 373.5 passing yards/game (No. 1 in FBS)
• 24 20-yard passes (T-No. 1 in FBS)
• 10.8 yards/pass attempt (No. 1 among Power Conference QBs)
• 189.9 QB rating (No. 1 among Power Conference QBs)
• 9.1 yards/play (No. 1 among Power Conference QBs)
• 368 rushing yards (No. 1 among Power Conference QBs)
• 92 rushing yards/game (No. 1 among Power Conference QBs)
• 12 TD passes (T-No. 2 in FBS)

Pavia’s late-season rampage to New York included a 3-1 record, wherein he lit up the scoreboard against the likes of Texas, Auburn, Kentucky and Tennessee in Neyland Stadium. On the season, Pavia led the most efficient offense in America at 7.5 yards/play. Against conference foes, Vandy averaged 7.0 yards/play, which was easily the best mark among Power Conference teams (it was also half a yard better than any SEC team).

Besides being a king of efficiency with the most yards/game among Power Conference players (334.8 yards/game), Pavia turned into the grim reaper. He faced 9 Power Conference teams, and 6 of them eventually fired either a head coach or a coordinator. You could argue that Pavia broke teams and that Vandy’s victories didn’t age well enough to give the program its first ever Playoff berth. After all, the 2 losses came against the 2 highest-ranked teams on the schedule (Alabama and Texas). If there’s a separator between Pavia and Fernando Mendoza, that’s part of it. Mendoza has been that dude from start to finish this season and has shown up with every clutch play possible, whereas Pavia and the Vandy offense hit a tiny lull in October, albeit a month in which Vandy beat a pair of top-15 teams (at the time of the matchup).

There are plenty of years in which Pavia would’ve been No. 1 on my ballot, including 2024 and 2022. I won’t deny that. But unfortunately for him, Mendoza pulled off an equally improbable feat without any blemishes.

1. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana QB

As I sit here today, I’m still searching for any sort of knock against Mendoza. Should he have scored 40 points against the nation’s best defense? Is it his fault that trips to Iowa and Penn State were a grind and he didn’t win by 28? Should he have thrown for 20 more yards to get to 3,000 pre-Playoff passing yards? Was his defense too good and perhaps he benefited more than others? Did Indiana play-caller Mike Shanahan scheme too well and make life too easy on him?

Those are all questions, some of which are obviously more tongue-in-cheek than others. But what I kept coming back to was the only one that mattered — was Mendoza the best player in college football this year? My answer, after plenty of internal debate the last few weeks, was an emphatic “yes.”

Perhaps that reality sank in on that 3rd-down throw to help close out Ohio State for the program’s first outright Big Ten Championship since 1945. Maybe it won’t be remembered as quite the “Heisman moment” that the Omar Cooper touchdown pass at Penn State was, but it should come as no surprise that among FBS quarterbacks with 100 passes in the second half/overtime, Mendoza had the best quarterback rating at 199.98. The only Power Conference quarterback with a better mark in the last 10 years was fellow Heisman winner Jayden Daniels. That’s not an accident. It’s also not an accident that Mendoza led IU to wins away from home against the likes of Oregon and Ohio State, both of whom are a combined 23-0 in games not against the Hoosiers.

Curt Cignetti is the reason that Indiana has gone from being the program with the most losses in the history of the sport to earning consecutive Playoff berths, but Mendoza is the reason that IU got over the hump against elite competition to earn that No. 1 seed.

You can’t knock him. All you can say is that he was the best flippin’ player in America in 2025.

The post How I filled out my 2025 Heisman Trophy ballot appeared first on Saturday Down South.

That’s not necessarily the best way to predict how something will play out, but BetMGM has Pavia on an island at No. 2 in the odds leading up to Saturday’s ceremony (this was when betting was last made available on Tuesday):

• Fernando Mendoza -2000
• Diego Pavia +1000
• Jeremiyah Love +15000
• Julian Sayin +50000

Someone with 10-to-1 odds after voting closed doesn’t seem likely to win the award, but it would be stunning if Pavia finished outside the top 2.

Let’s put some perspective on that. With Pavia, all additional perspective is valid. We need to stack Pavia up against some SEC legends because that’s the category he put himself in.

You can pretty easily make the case that he’s been the best SEC player during his 2 years in the conference. Why? Last year, nobody in the SEC finished in the top 10 of the Heisman voting. Pavia might not have been a Heisman finisher, but he was at least an All-SEC quarterback in his breakout season. In fact, he was the first SEC quarterback ever to transfer directly from an FBS school and earn All-SEC honors in his first season in the conference. This year, we know that Pavia is guaranteed to be the highest SEC finisher in the Heisman voting.

Not all Heisman winners are created equal. At the same time, being considered 1 of the 2 best players in the sport is a lofty feat in any year, much less one in which the group of SEC quarterbacks was so decorated that Pavia didn’t even earn preseason All-SEC honors.

At this point, you know the SEC’s 21st century Heisman winners by heart. Tim Tebow, Mark Ingram, Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, Derrick Henry, Joe Burrow, DeVonta Smith, Bryce Young and Jayden Daniels all did it. Perhaps it’s unfair to say that Pavia deserves to be remembered like those 9 guys if he’s only a runner-up. That’s fine. There’s a different discussion we can circle back to with those guys.

Look at the SEC’s Heisman runner-up group of the 21st century:

• Tua Tagovailoa, 2018
• AJ McCarron, 2013
• Darren McFadden, 2006-07
• Rex Grossman, 2001

That’s a group of 13 players that Pavia will be part of, and he won’t stand out. Will he be remembered in the same regard as Tebow? No, let’s not oversell here. Of those 13 guys, 8 of them also paired their Heisman win/runner-up with at least 1 national title. Pavia, unless he finds another year of eligibility buried deep in the couch cushions, won’t be able to do that.

But there’s perhaps a better question that we need to ask with Pavia to put proper context on his legacy.

How many players in the 21st century were more valuable to their program than Pavia?

If we’re expanding this to all of college football to determine the most valuable individuals to their respective universities in the 21st century, I’d concede the likes of Tebow, Manziel, Newton, Burrow, Robert Griffin III, Vince Young, Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield and Stetson Bennett IV. Outside of that, you can argue Pavia against the rest of the 21st century crew. The “rest” would include guys like Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston, Reggie Bush and Ndamukong Suh. But even then, if we’re looking at what a program was before their arrival and how much they changed the conversations about their program, how can one do more than Pavia?

Even if fellow Heisman finalist Fernando Mendoza wins the award, he won’t be viewed as quite as valuable of a player to Indiana because of what happened in Year 1 under Curt Cignetti before he transferred from Cal. Pavia, on the other hand, was part of the foundation year at Vanderbilt, which was assumed to be a flash in the pan. Like, the foundation year that included a win against No. 1 Alabama.

“Most valuable” is perhaps a difficult thing to quantify until we’re years removed from it. As dazzling as a player like Jackson was, Bobby Petrino was fired a year after he left Louisville for the NFL. Bush was among the most electrifying players in college football history, but fair or not, there’s a part of his legacy that’s probably tainted by the NCAA violations that he brought his school. Some would argue that guys like Winston, Manziel and Watson brought certain levels of negative attention to their schools, albeit for very different reasons.

The odds are favorable that somewhere next to Vandy’s newly renovated stadium, Pavia will eventually have a statue. Maybe they’ll wait a few years to make sure he doesn’t bring any negative attention to the university, or perhaps the hay is in the barn with his legacy.

What’s undeniable is that Pavia is a 21st century SEC legend. He deserves to be viewed through that lens as someone who was part of a New Mexico State migration to 2-10 Vandy, and ultimately flipped the script for the most dire situation in the SEC. Since Pavia made his mark, Clark Lea got a new contract and in between his national media appearances talking about Vandy’s Playoff chances, he flipped 5-star quarterback Jared Curtis from Georgia. Those things don’t happen without Pavia. Period.

Nobody could’ve predicted that Pavia would even sniff All-SEC consideration once (he earned that twice), much less become the 27th player in the history of the SEC to finish in the top 2 in the Heisman voting. No matter what happens the rest of Pavia’s football career, he’ll deserve to be remembered as SEC royalty.

It wasn’t long ago that those odds were nonexistent.

The post The oddsmakers suggest that Diego Pavia will at least be a Heisman Trophy runner-up, which would put him among SEC royalty appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Peach Bowl CEO Gary Stokan joined the show ahead of his retirement to talk about 3 decades in college football, fixing the sport and whether non-Playoff bowls can do anything to survive.

The guys close with Lad of the Week!

Watch the full episode here:

Subscribe to The Saturday Down South Podcast here, and subscribe to Saturday Down South on YouTube for all the latest video content!

The post SDS Podcast: Key non-Playoff SEC developments, Gary Stokan talks future of bowls & fixing college football appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Retaining key players from inherited rosters has never been more difficult. The second that a coach gets fired, we can assume that players are being tampered with to enter the portal and spend the following season elsewhere.

The good news for the 6 new SEC head coaches is that the 30-day window that used to open immediately after a head coach’s departure has changed. Now, players had to wait 5 days after a hire was announced, and they’ll only have a 15-day window to enter the portal as opposed to 30 days.

The other good news for the 6 new SEC head coaches is that at places like Auburn, LSU and Ole Miss, there were key assistants who stayed on board. That could make retaining those elite underclassmen an easier task. There could still be chaos before the 1-time portal window opens for everyone on Jan. 2-16.

For today’s discussion, I thought it’d be interesting to dig into the top SEC underclassmen that these new coaches will try to retain. Note that we’re talking about the guys who aren’t draft-eligible yet because that’s a different option to consider. Someone like Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss reportedly filed a waiver earlier this season for another year of eligibility and is waiting to hear back. If he’s granted that waiver, he could stay at Ole Miss or leave for another school (like LSU). But that’s a bit more complex than trying to retain players who, in theory, have just the 2 options of staying or playing elsewhere.

Here or those top 7 SEC players:

7. Dallas Wilson, Florida WR

Yeah, let’s start with someone who played in just 4 games. Injuries bookended his true freshman season, so Wilson didn’t use up a year of eligibility. It’s rare to see someone flash like Wilson did vs. SEC competition — he had 12 catches for 174 yards and 3 touchdowns — who still has 4 years of eligibility remaining. His historic debut against Texas saw him rack up 111 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns against a decorated defense.

The former top-50 recruit in the 2025 class, who also took over Florida’s spring game as an early enrollee, figures to be a top priority for Jon Sumrall and new OC Buster Faulkner. Wilson has already made a notable vow that he’s on his way to becoming a household name in the sport. If he sticks in Gainesville and becomes the new go-to receiver in a resurgent Florida offense, he’ll have a prime opportunity to do just that.

6. Deuce Knight, Auburn QB

Yeah, it was Mercer. We get it. Knight (probably) wouldn’t have run away from a defense like Alabama in the way that he did in his first and only start at the college level. But the former 5-star recruit is a mesmerizing quarterback prospect for Alex Golesh in his up-tempo offense. The southpaw signal caller still has all of his eligibility left, but one would think that he’ll have options to be a starter in 2026. Does that mean Knight could stay at Auburn if another veteran transfer comes on board? That remains to be seen. Everyone has already connected the dots with USF starter Byrum Brown and his ability to follow Golesh to The Plains. That’s a pivotal Year 1 decision for Golesh.

The only reason why Knight isn’t even higher on this list is because he hasn’t played a down of football against Power Conference competition yet. At the same time, the consensus feeling was that Auburn started the wrong quarterback all season. Watching him find a new home would be a tough pill to swallow.

5. Jadan Baugh, Florida RB

Backs like Baugh don’t grow on trees. If you don’t believe that, tell me why he was the entire Florida offense in November. He had 103 carries in those 5 games, including a 38-carry, 266-yard showing in a blowout win vs. Florida State to close the season. Baugh had 65 missed tackles forced (No. 5 among Power Conference backs) and 766 yards after first contact (No. 7 among Power Conference backs). He’s a difference maker. There’s no question about that. The question is whether he’ll stay in the aforementioned Faulker offense, which averaged a minimum of 187 rushing yards per game during his 3 seasons on Brent Key’s staff at Georgia Tech.

There could be questions about scheme fit with Baugh being predominantly being a zone back, and in the gap-designed ground attack that Faulkner operated out of at Georgia Tech, that could be an adjustment. But what about Baugh’s game suggests that he would struggle in any scheme? Also, Baugh seems like he made a lasting impression on his new coach with his FSU performance.

4. Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss RB

Here’s a fun trivia question. Can you list all the Power Conference players who forced more missed tackles than Lacy in 2025? This is what the list looks like:

• —

Yep. It’s a blank list. Lacy led Power Conference backs with a whopping 88 missed tackles forced, and he was No. 5 in that group with 858 yards after first contact. The former Mizzou transfer was a monster for Ole Miss. He not only broke the program’s single-season record with a Power Conference-best 20 rushing scores, but he was also the first Doak Walker Award finalist in team history. If you’re looking for a reason why the 2024 squad missed out on the Playoff but the 2025 squad found a way to make the field, look no further than Lacy. In the 2nd half/overtime, he and Ahmad Hardy led Power Conference backs with 113 carries. Better yet, Lacy had 92 carries when Ole Miss led by 1-7 points. No other FBS back had more than 76 such carries.

The question is whether Lane Kiffin will poach Lacy and bring him to Baton Rouge to turn around a lifeless LSU rushing attack. Early indications suggest that Lacy isn’t tied at the hip to Kiffin, but who knows? Ole Miss reportedly hired East Carolina OC John David Baker, who ran a zone rushing attack that averaged 43 rushing attempts per game (No. 13 in FBS) in 2025. The Pirates also finished No. 14 in FBS with 31 rushing touchdowns, which will also be a selling point. Selling a likely preseason All-American on sticking around could have a major impact on what Pete Golding‘s Year 1 expectations look like.

3. Xavier Atkins, Auburn LB

Lost in the shuffle of Auburn’s 5th consecutive losing season was how many studs emerged on that defense. Keldric Faulk was the household name entering the season, but Atkins was the best player on that group after transferring from LSU. The former 5-star recruit stuffed the stat sheet. He was 4th in the SEC with 84 tackles, he led the SEC with 17 tackles for loss, he was tied for No. 3 in the conference with 9 sacks and he added 2 forced fumbles and an interception. He was a do-it-all linebacker who thrived with his first opportunity as a college starter. In just about every way imaginable, Atkins showed that you can build an entire defense around him.

Much like another defensive star that we’ll get to in a second here, Atkins has a better shot of being retained because his defensive coordinator is staying on board. Alex Golesh keeping DJ Durkin could be the difference in keeping Atkins, who could be a fit in any defense in America after his breakout season in 2025. Before that move was even announced, Atkins gave the Auburn faithful a vote of confidence.

If Auburn is home in 2025, the Tigers might boast the best returning linebacker in America.

2. DJ Pickett, LSU CB

Why do I have Pickett higher on this list than more established players like Lacy and Baugh? Two reasons. One is that a 6-5 true freshman All-American who played outside corner in the SEC has immense positional value. That’s less dependent on surroundings, and I’d argue having someone who can take away half the field has game-changing impact. There’s also the fact that Pickett won’t be draft-eligible until after the 2027 season, so you’re talking about potentially 2 years of control instead of 1 for Baugh and Lacy. Pickett’s value is off the charts after a true freshman season in which he allowed just 15 catches for 188 yards and 1 touchdown in coverage. When Pickett was targeted, quarterbacks had an NFL QB rating of 38.8, which is slightly worse than the 39.6 NFL QB rating that one would get for spiking the football every play. Mind you, that’s for someone who played 382 snaps at outside corner in Year 1 in the SEC.

Fortunately for LSU, Kiffin pulled off the remarkable feat of retaining defensive coordinator Blake Baker and secondary coach Corey Raymond. At this point, it would be a stunning development if Pickett left LSU, but he has to be included on a list like this.

1. Cam Coleman, Auburn WR

Look. I know that the accolades weren’t at the level of the guys that I had in spots 2-5 on this list, but let’s not get it twisted. That wasn’t Coleman’s fault. Anybody who has watched the electric wideout play knows that his surroundings (both the QB and the head coach) were limiting factors in his performance. He had a quarterback who refused to throw downfield, yet he still was No. 2 in the SEC with 10 catches on passes 20+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage, and he tied for the SEC lead with 11 contested catches. You simply cannot teach the things that Coleman does on a football field.

That’s not the type of skill set that ever becomes available in the transfer portal. Having someone who has done the things that Coleman has done in 2 SEC seasons would make him a 7-figure value to any program in America, even in the likely event that he’s only got 1 more season in college before heading off to the NFL. The question is whether Golesh’s offense with a new QB1 will be Coleman’s choice in his potential pre-draft season. The USF offense was No. 3 in the FBS in touchdown passes (32), and it was No. 5 in FBS with 29 completions that went for 30+ yards. Golesh can sell the fact that he called plays for Biletnikoff Award winner Jalin Hyatt at Tennessee.

It remains to be seen if Coleman will finish his career on The Plains, but Auburn hired an ideal Hugh Freeze successor to make that happen.

Wait, no DJ Lagway?

Once upon a time, Lagway probably would’ve had the No. 1 spot on a list like this without much debate. But I didn’t include him because I can’t say with confidence that he’s got a future as a solid SEC quarterback. Health is a big part of that, but the decision-making was worrisome in his Year 2 in Gainesville. Lagway had 19 turnover-worthy plays in 2025, and a 63% completion rate for someone who averaged 6.7 yards per attempt was alarming. All of that upside that we saw from Lagway as a true freshman felt like an afterthought for the vast majority of the season. Sure, maybe it was the Billy Napier offense and play-calling that held him back. But for someone who dealt with multiple injuries throughout the year, I don’t think the possibility of losing Lagway is quite as devastating as it would be for other players on this list.

If Faulkner decides that he doesn’t want to sign up for the Lagway experience in Year 1, I won’t necessarily fault him for that.

The post The 7 most important underclassmen for new SEC head coaches to retain in 2026 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

A quarterback who earns All-SEC honors at season’s end and then returns for another season is supposed to be a preseason All-SEC lock. The whole point of the preseason all-conference teams is to honor both the players who are most decorated from the previous season and the players who are poised to have the most success in that upcoming season. It’s often forgotten about because preseason honors are hardly the accomplishment of postseason honors.

But yeah, Diego Pavia has done the impossible. He’s gone from 2024 All-SEC quarterback to preseason All-SEC snub to … New York.

Just as we all predicted. Why not? Non-linear? I suppose. Pavia, along with Fernando Mendoza, Jeremiyah Love and Julian Sayin, are your 2025 Heisman Trophy finalists.

You could probably make a better case that Vanderbilt‘s brand bias worked against Pavia’s preseason All-SEC credentials than the team’s Playoff credentials, but those are separate conversations. After all, BYU, Notre Dame, Utah and Virginia also played Power Conference schedules and got left out of the Playoff. The preseason All-SEC discussion is far more egregious to look back on.

Your preseason All-SEC quarterbacks were:

• Garrett Nussmeier: First Team (Coaches), Second Team (Media)
• LaNorris Sellers: First Team (Media), Second Team (Coaches)
• DJ Lagway: Third Team (Coaches)
• Arch Manning: Third Team (Media)

That aged … poorly.

Hand up. I’m part of the problem.

In my defense, I at least explained how Pavia nearly earned the No. 3 spot on my preseason All-SEC ballot, and I gave the nod to Lagway instead because he was the better player in the latter half of the season. Also in my defense, I spent all offseason outlining how Pavia wasn’t the same guy after Deone Walker fell on his leg in the Kentucky game, and that if he returned to full strength with a team that was No. 8 in FBS in percentage of returning production, there was reason to believe that Pavia could actually take another step forward in 2025.

Did I think that step would be a direct path to New York? No chance.

Here’s the other irony. If you listen to The Saturday Down South Podcast (you should totally do that and subscribe here), you’ve heard me heap praise on Pavia consistently since he led Vandy to a win in that opener against Virginia Tech in 2024. You also heard me say after this year’s Texas game that Pavia, by virtue of being on a 2-loss Vandy team and having a limited statistical profile at the time, probably didn’t have a shot at the Heisman. Then all Pavia did was close the season with a 4-game stretch among the most prolific in SEC history.

Including the Texas game, wherein he nearly helped Vandy erase a 34-10 deficit in the 4th quarter, look at Pavia’s November numbers:

• 465.5 yards of offense/game (No. 1 in FBS)
• 373.5 passing yards/game (No. 1 in FBS)
• 24 20-yard passes (T-No. 1 in FBS)
• 10.8 yards/pass attempt (No. 1 among Power Conference QBs)
• 189.9 QB rating (No. 1 among Power Conference QBs)
• 9.1 yards/play (No. 1 among Power Conference QBs)
• 368 rushing yards (No. 1 among Power Conference QBs)
• 92 rushing yards/game (No. 1 among Power Conference QBs)
• 12 TD passes (T-No. 2 in FBS)

And Pavia did that while leading Vandy to its first 10-win season in school history. No big deal.

You’ll hear about all of this as Pavia is in New York getting the full Heisman treatment. That’ll include some, um, interesting face time for his highly viewed family.

(Marty Smith sitting down with the Pavia family at the Heisman ceremony will be appointment viewing. If they get the Pavia brothers in that room … look out.)

Sure, there could be some Pavia fatigue by the end of this, especially if the cameras stick on his mom like they did during the final few games of the season.

But at the same time, there needs to be a deep appreciation of what he’s done to become an SEC legend

No matter how Saturday night plays out — I’ll be surprised if Pavia is anything worse than runner-up — that’s been established. If we can appreciate college football greats like the late Colt Brennan or Ashton Jeanty making their mark on the sport coming from non-Power Conference programs, why can’t we appreciate Pavia doing so against an SEC schedule?

You can roll your eyes that Pavia went on Bussin’ With The Boys and spoke about “running Tennessee” and winning a national championship. But what’s undeniable is that even if those offseason comments made your skin crawl, Pavia came much closer to living up to every lofty goal he set out on than you, me or anybody outside of Nashville thought was possible.

Shoot, there were people like Vanderbilt’s own Jordan Rodgers who didn’t even have Pavia as a top-10 quarterback in the SEC coming into this year.

“Do I think he’s gonna go out there and stink? Absolutely not. I do think he’s one of the hardest guys to game plan against,” Rodgers told SDS back in July. “But by merit of what we saw last year, they’re gonna run him a lot less, so I think his production is gonna be a little less, and they should because he was banged up at the end of last year, and he wasn’t playing like the same Diego because of that.”

I don’t circle back to that to dog someone like Rodgers, who’ll forget more about quarterback evaluation than I’ll ever know (he also was loudest about preseason Manning skepticism), but it’s one of those reminders that Pavia was still climbing uphill entering this encore season. If you had asked 100 people outside of that locker room if it was more likely that Pavia would be humbled in a 4-win season or that he’d be a Heisman finalist after a historic 10-win season, how many of them would’ve picked the latter? One? Two?

And even if they did, we’d all wonder if those were the same few unidentified media members who used to infamously fill out the preseason All-SEC ballot and jokingly pick Vanderbilt to win the SEC.

Who’s the joke now?

In a year in which seemingly every decorated preseason quarterback in the SEC fell on their face (again), Pavia and his 5-9 frame (that’s still my guess on his height) rose above the rest to be in the room with college football royalty. That doesn’t have to be a polarizing thing to discuss. It can just be an acknowledgement that you cannot tell the story of the 2025 season without Pavia. Period.

On Saturday night, a new Heisman will be enshrined. Maybe that’ll be Pavia, or maybe it’ll be Mendoza. Either way, it’s impossible to overstate how wrong so many of us were about Pavia.

Heisman or not, he got the last laugh.

The post Remember when Diego Pavia wasn’t preseason All-SEC this year? Now, he’s representing the SEC in New York appeared first on Saturday Down South.

You know, the games. Specifically, these matchups.

In case you forgot what those are, here’s a reminder (point spreads via FanDuel):

• Friday, Dec. 19 at 8 p.m. ET on ABC: No. 9 Alabama (-1.5) at No. 8 Oklahoma
• Saturday, Dec. 20 at noon ET on ABC: No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M (-3.5)
• Saturday, Dec. 20 at 3:30 p.m. ET on TNT: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss (-16.5)
• Saturday, Dec. 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon (-20.5)

In Round 1, we’ve got 4 games that are loaded with intrigue. While 2 of them are double-digit spreads — that’s what happens when 2 Group of 5 teams make the field — there are still plenty of storylines worth discussing.

Here are some early thoughts on Round 1:

No. 12 James Madison vs. No. 5 Oregon — Dante Moore’s improved accuracy under Will Stein will be pivotal

I’m old enough to remember when Moore was a 5-star recruit who struggled to complete half of his passes when he got starts as a true freshman at UCLA. A couple of years with Will Stein in the Oregon offense has completely turned that around. Not only is Moore ranked No. 3 in the FBS in completion percentage at 72.5%, but he completed at least 60% of his passes in every game this season. When he’s been under pressure, he’s No. 7 among Power Conference quarterbacks with a 73.5% adjusted completion percentage and a 100.7 NFL QB rating (min. 50 pressured drop-backs). On the season, Moore has just 8 turnover-worthy plays, but he’s also No. 4 among Power Conference quarterbacks with 24 big-time throws (via PFF).

Why is that significant in this matchup? Won’t Oregon just be able to dominate JMU in the trenches? It’s possible, but given the injuries that the Ducks have dealt with on the offensive line, that’s not a given. Bob Chesney’s squad allowed an absurd 49.5% completion rate, which is a mark that only 2 FBS teams have bested in the 2020s. Ten of their 13 opponents were held to less than that aforementioned 60% clip, and on 3rd down, JMU surrendered a 44% completion rate. Yes, JMU had a Sun Belt schedule, but that 49.5% mark for the season also included holding a Jeff Brohm-led Louisville attack to 13-of-23 passing for 151 yards, which was 76 yards below their season average. Moore’s ability to keep Oregon on schedule with his accuracy could be what keeps the Sun Belt champs at an arm’s length.

No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 8 Oklahoma — I’m not convinced that Alabama getting healthier flips the script in Norman

Kalen DeBoer didn’t want to pitch Alabama’s Playoff case to the selection committee after Saturday’s blowout loss to Georgia, but he did happen to reference how much healthier the Tide would be, especially on offense, in a hypothetical matchup 2 weeks away. He also happened to mention after a historically dreadful rushing performance that Jam Miller would be one of those guys, and that he was out for 2 of their 3 losses. Ironically, the 1 loss that Miller was healthy for was against Oklahoma, who ended up being Alabama’s Round 1 draw. On that day, Miller had 9 carries for 27 yards in Alabama’s first home loss to an SEC foe in 6 years. Alabama nearly doubled up OU in total yards, but it lost the turnover battle 3-0, which was the difference in a 2-point game.

Mind you, that came on a day in which Daniel Hill appeared to emerge as the go-to back with a career-high 15 carries for 60 yards, 28 of which came on the longest run by an Alabama player since the final minute of the Louisiana-Monroe game. Hill hasn’t had a 10-yard run since that game, though. After rushing for -3 yards against the nation’s No. 6 run defense, Alabama will now face the nation’s No. 5 run defense, who also ranks No. 2 with 2.47 yards/carry allowed. OU has allowed as many 10-yard runs (25) as Georgia. Healthy or not, Alabama’s historically disappointing ground game turning around on the road against an Oklahoma defense that hasn’t allowed 4.0 yards per carry in a game since Week 2 against Michigan — something that only happened because Alabama transfer Justice Haynes ripped off a 75-yard touchdown run — feels darn near impossible.

Even as a slight road favorite, DeBoer’s path to flipping an 0-2 script vs. Brent Venables could be an uphill battle, especially if R Mason Thomas returns from injury in time to terrorize Ty Simpson and the reeling Alabama offense.

No. 11 Tulane vs. No. 6 Ole Miss — Praise whichever coaching staff wins this game amidst suboptimal circumstances

And on the flip side, whichever coaching staff loses this game will probably face criticism, albeit for different reasons. But let’s stay on the positive for a second. If Ole Miss takes care of Tulane again — even if it’s not as decisive as the 45-10 beatdown that we watched in September — it’ll be no small feat for Pete Golding and Co. Yes, even as a significant favorite. It would be ideal post-Lane Kiffin optics to have a standalone home game wherein the Ole Miss faithful gets to witness the program’s first Playoff victory. If it’s equally dominant as the first matchup, Ole Miss can sell the notion that the program was more than 1 person. Granted, his development of Division II transfer Trinidad Chambliss and ability to recruit the portal with guys like Kewan Lacy and Pricewill Umanmielen might’ve contributed to the product on the field, but that’ll be an afterthought if Ole Miss prevails in its first game without Kiffin.

Alternatively, think about what it would mean if new Florida coach Jon Sumrall, while juggling 2 jobs, led the first Group of 5 victory in the history of the Playoff. After the rules were already changed because of Boise State’s Round 1 bye in 2024, it would dunk on post-Selection Sunday debates about stripping the Group of 5 of having an automatic bid. That’s the macro side. The micro side of Sumrall avenging a 35-point loss while juggling 2 jobs would send a loud message to his new fanbase that he’s the real deal. Ahead of the transfer portal window opening on Jan. 2, that would carry a ton of weight.

However this game turns out, the winning coach should get a universal salute … even if a humbling experience with Georgia awaits.

No. 10 Miami vs. No. 7 Texas A&M — This is a daunting draw for A&M because of the Canes’ ground game

Make no mistake. This is the premier matchup of Round 1. It’s the type of game that we hoped the 12-team Playoff would yield because in every previous version of the sport, these 2 widely discussed teams would be playing in a BCS/New Year’s 6 Bowl without a path to a title game. But it’s also a reminder that even in an expanded Playoff, daunting matchups await a 1-loss team like A&M. Miami has the ability to expose an A&M weakness down the stretch, which has been defending the run. We watched Texas have its first 100-yard rusher of the season against A&M, who had 4 games allowing north of 200 rushing yards this season, including 3 in the latter half of the schedule.

Miami dealt with the Mark Fletcher Jr. injury in early November, but if he looks healthy — he didn’t have a run longer than 8 yards in his 2 post-injury games — that’s huge in this matchup. He’s got 40 missed tackles forced on just 141 carries this season, and he racked up 479 rushing yards after first contact. That’s a drive-finisher that Miami desperately needs to ease pressure on Carson Beck, who’ll face a loaded A&M pass rush in front of 108,000 fans at Kyle Field. Miami has the ability to lean on teams with that offensive line, and while it’s not necessarily the most dominant unit at 150 yards/game, it ranks No. 5 in time of possession because of that rushing attack. If Miami can silence this crowd and keep the A&M offense out of rhythm with that ground game, it can become the first team to win a road Playoff game.

Perhaps of even greater historical significance, it could give the ACC its first Playoff/New Year’s 6 Bowl victory of the 2020s.

The post Early Round 1 Playoff thoughts on a wide open field appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Plus, the guys discuss what in the world Alabama did to get demolished by Georgia in the SEC Championship.

They close with some Heisman Trophy thoughts and revisit Connor’s nightmare travel experience.

Watch the full episode here:

Subscribe to The Saturday Down South Podcast here, and subscribe to Saturday Down South on YouTube for all the latest video content!

The post SDS Podcast: Playoff field reactions, Alabama demolished by Georgia & Heisman thoughts appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Well, check that. Sunday’s reveal was always going to yield massive debate between the likes of Alabama, Miami (FL) and Notre Dame. The debate within the selection committee is at least in the rearview mirror.

Here’s what the final top 12 looked like:

• 1. Indiana
• 2. Ohio State
• 3. Georgia
• 4. Texas Tech
• 5. Oregon
• 6. Ole Miss
• 7. Texas A&M
• 8. Oklahoma
• 9. Alabama
• 10. Miami (FL)
• 11. Tulane
• 12. James Madison

Here were the biggest takeaways:

Alabama is … in at No. 9 to set up a rematch with Oklahoma

I’m blown away that Alabama didn’t move a single spot at No. 9. While I still projected the Tide to be in the field, I thought yesterday at least opened the door for the selection committee to move the Tide down to No. 10. Instead, Alabama stayed at No. 9 and confirmed the 2024 precedent that the selection committee wasn’t going to take out a conference championship participant in favor of an idle team.

Did brand bias play into that? Perhaps. Or perhaps as Marty Smith said while we were all waiting for the Playoff reveal, Alabama is the only team in America ranked in the top 10 in FPI, strength of record and strength of schedule. Make of that what you will.

What we can make of Alabama’s résumé is that it was boosted largely by the fact that it had the 4 wins vs. AP Top 25 teams in consecutive weeks, including a Georgia win that improved by virtue of the Dawgs beating the Tide decisively to earn the SEC Championship. Ironic. Just a bit.

As it stands, Alabama is the first 3-loss, at-large team to ever make the field. Can the Tide get healthier and avenge the loss to Oklahoma? Time will tell. That Sooners defense will have a chance to get healthier itself, which will make it an uphill climb for Kalen DeBoer after losing both Oklahoma matchups the last 2 years.

But let’s get back to the real jaw-dropper of Sunday.

Miami and Notre Dame flipping is absolutely bananas because of when it happened, not how it happened

Cannot believe it. The timing will go down as an all-time blunder for the selection committee. It could yield the end of the Tuesday ranking shows as we know them because week after week, we were told that Notre Dame was only getting the nod ahead of Miami because the 2 didn’t have close enough résumés for the head-to-head to matter. All those teams did was win, yet apparently the selection committee decided that an idle conference championship weekend was finally time to factor in a game played in August.

If you’re Notre Dame, yes, you should be baffled that this played out the way that it did. Weekly assurances that the Irish had the better résumé even with the same amount of losses.

But at the same time, did the selection committee mess this up in the initial rankings by putting the Hurricanes at No. 18? Yes. Surely they banked on Miami suffering a third loss, and that never came. Instead, the selection committee moved them up closer to Notre Dame all but once. Go figure that the one time that Miami didn’t get moved up was ahead of conference championship weekend.

Nothing makes sense with how this played out, but at the very least, the right team got in.

Tulane and Ole Miss get a rematch … albeit with 2 coaches at new jobs (sort of)

What a bizarre rematch. We’ve got 2 Round 1 rematches, but go figure that one of them will be for a game that was decided by 35 points. That never happens on this stage, and usually, a Group of 5 team who loses in such lopsided fashion isn’t in line for one of those spots. But in a strange year at the Group of 5 level wherein a 2-loss Tulane team and 1-loss James Madison both made the field because of the ACC’s 5-loss champ, that’s what we’ve got.

Jon Sumrall will still be coaching Tulane in the Playoff while juggling duties at Florida, while Ole Miss will obviously be without Lane Kiffin. How many points is Kiffin worth? That’ll be dissected, as will a nearly 2-to-1 yardage disparity in the first matchup. Ole Miss will at least have offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. to call plays, and it’s the same defense that held Tulane to just 10 points.

Ole Miss staying at No. 6 and getting this draw was as favorable of a development as it could’ve asked for once all the Kiffin drama unfolded.

Georgia staying at 3 might actually be the best path for the Dawgs

I went from initially thinking that Georgia not moving up to the No. 2 line was bad news for the Dawgs to thinking they might’ve actually lucked out by having Ohio State and Indiana just switch spots. Why? Now, Georgia gets the winner of Tulane-Ole Miss. At the very least, the Dawgs will face a team with a fluid head coaching situation. Plus, UGA beat Ole Miss with Kiffin. Granted, it wasn’t exactly a day in which UGA shut down Trinidad Chambliss until the 4th quarter.

Still, though. This feels different than last year when Georgia drew a surging Notre Dame team. Neither Tulane nor Ole Miss will be in that camp. It’ll instead face questions about game-planning for Georgia in the Sugar Bowl without their head coach’s full attention. That’s a daunting task for anyone, much less a team with a fluid staff.

The Dawgs might just end up being the scariest team in this field, even if the ranking doesn’t reflect it.

The best Round 1 matchup is … Miami-Texas A&M

Carson Beck returning to the SEC? Buddy, sign me up. That’s a fascinating matchup that we’re going to see with Miami facing that A&M pass rush. Can the Canes bully A&M in the run game? How healthy will Marcel Reed be? Those questions will be asked a ton over the course of the next 2 weeks.

It was a brutal blow for A&M to fall to the No. 7 seed because it meant not getting a potential Group of 5 matchup in Round 1. But at some point, A&M was going to have to face a team like Miami. It just happened that the last team in was considered the biggest surprise of Sunday.

But lost in the shuffle of an eventful Selection Sunday was the fact that A&M earned its first Playoff berth in program history while Texas missed the field altogether. Something tells me that wasn’t lost in the shuffle of those fanbases on the internet.

Let the on-field chaos begin.

The post Takeaways from the final Playoff Poll of 2025: Did the selection committee get it right? appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Alabama’s blowout loss to Georgia set the wheels in motion for the masses to pick apart the Tide, who looked like a team that was hanging by a thread entering Saturday.

So what happens with Alabama, Miami and Notre Dame? Who falls? And what does the rest of the top 12 look like?

Let’s predict how the field will play out:

12. James Madison

Look. I know that the ACC got a raw deal with the Miami thing and if I were making these picks, the Canes would be in instead of Notre Dame. But Duke isn’t making the field with 5 losses. Period. JMU sneaking into the CFP Top 25 this past week at least told us that there’s a chance. A 1-loss Sun Belt team making the field instead of a single ACC team would be the type of scenario that nobody would’ve ever pictured, but we’re on the brink of it.

11. Tulane

Good for Jon Sumrall for navigating 2 jobs and getting his team ready to play in a conference title game. By winning The American, there’s not really any debate about Tulane’s Playoff credentials after it was the highest-ranked Group of 5 team entering the weekend. It’s odd to think that if this were still a system that still rewarded the top 4 highest-ranked conference champs with an automatic bid and a Round 1 bye like it did in 2024, we could’ve been talking about whether Tulane would be getting a bye. But that’s no longer the case. Tulane is in, albeit with a daunting road trip in Round 1.

10. Alabama

Yuck. That’s how the selection committee should’ve viewed an Alabama rushing performance that finished with -3 yards, which was the worst showing since at least 1940. A 3-touchdown loss against Georgia didn’t completely wipe away an Alabama résumé that included 4 consecutive wins vs. AP Top 25 teams without any rest, but it certainly called it into question. Three losses for an at-large team isn’t a total deal-breaker, but 2 of those were blowouts, including the final data point. Kalen DeBoer didn’t believe that his team should be punished for Saturday’s dud. If push comes to shove, my guess is that (slightly) more people on the selection committee will side with him.

9. Notre Dame

If the selection committee wants to pretend that the SEC Championship actually mattered, this is how it can do it. Move Notre Dame back to the 9-seed, drop Alabama 1 spot and leave Miami multiple spots apart. Is that what I’d do? Nope. I’d factor in the game of American tackle football that those 2 teams played this season. I’d also factor the common opponents and how Miami had a better scoring margin in 3 of those 4 games. That should matter, too. Will it matter for the selection committee? At this point, that’s not worth holding your breath for.

8. Oklahoma

You could argue that Oklahoma was the biggest winner among the idle teams on Saturday. A win from either Alabama or BYU would’ve potentially bumped the Sooners back into that 9-10 range and made them travel for a Round 1 game. As it stands, they should feel safe about a home Playoff game, albeit against a No. 9 seed. Oklahoma’s offense will prevent anyone from having the Sooners making a deep run, but a trip to Norman against a top-5 defense in the sport won’t be a picnic.

7. Texas A&M

You can tell me that the Aggies had a soft conference schedule, and I can tell you that it still beat Notre Dame in South Bend. That’s a team that the selection committee put in the top 10 at every turn. That won’t change on Sunday after the Aggies were idle. The fact that they were sandwiched by a pair of idle SEC teams should’ve locked them in after BYU failed to crash the party and Alabama didn’t earn the right to jump Texas A&M. The only intrigue for A&M was going to be who ultimately earned that last at-large spot and likely ended up with the 10-seed.

6. Ole Miss

Tuesday squashed any ridiculous notion that Ole Miss would get punished for losing Lane Kiffin to LSU. Instead of dropping, it moved up to No. 6 and all but guaranteed itself a home Playoff game with a lone blemish being to SEC champ Georgia. That was significant because of the expected difference between the final 2 auto bids securing spots 11-12 while the aforementioned trio competing for the final at-large berth would be at that No. 10 seed. The return of Charlie Weis Jr. to call plays should give Ole Miss an even better chance to take care of business in Oxford in a couple weeks.

5. Oregon

The Ducks have quietly answered every question that faced them since that Indiana loss. Whether that was keeping USC at an arm’s length or winning a gritty game in Iowa, Oregon has been one of the best teams in the country in the latter half of the season, even amidst injuries. Questions about a thin résumé that didn’t get a big Penn State boost have since faded. Now, the only question is about whether Oregon will be poised to flip the script from last year’s squad, which started 13-0 but ran into a buzzsaw in the Rose Bowl. Thankfully for Oregon, it should avoid those Big Ten teams in the quarterfinals.

4. Texas Tech

Lost in the shuffle of Saturday’s developments was the fact that before Alabama-Notre Dame-Miami debates could really get going was what the Red Raiders did in the Big 12 Championship. They did what they’ve done 11 times this year. That is, roll. I suppose that was what they did once this year. That is, dominate BYU. The selection committee doesn’t have to justify putting Texas Tech in for one of those Round 1 byes because they’ve passed every eye test metric imaginable. A stress-free Sunday awaits.

3. Ohio State

Not all is lost for the Buckeyes after losing for the first time since last year’s Michigan game. After all, it was a 1-2 matchup. Sure, the Buckeyes would’ve liked to have won their first Big Ten Championship since — wait for it — 2020. That’ll still yield a Round 1 bye, and the Buckeyes can sell internally that they lost last year’s regular-season finale and then reset with a historic run through the Playoff. Also, the Buckeyes finally played in a 4-quarter game for the first time since August. Perhaps now is the time to buy stock.

2. Georgia

Just an absolute beatdown. That’s what Georgia delivered in a game in which it didn’t need to make the field, but still got in emphatic fashion. The Dawgs not only held Alabama to -3 rushing yards, but they also showed that they could fend off any whiff of a late comeback to make it look somewhat close. Georgia avenged its only loss of the year to earn its second consecutive SEC Championship. The Dawgs will get another Round 1 bye, and they’ll have a legitimate argument to be considered the scariest team in the field.

1. Indiana

What a time to be alive. Indiana is the last remaining unbeaten team in FBS, and there’s zero debate whatsoever about the 1-seed after a Big Ten Championship win against Ohio State. It’s not a sentence that feels real for the program with more losses than anyone in FBS. No discussions about the Indiana résumé will be had after beating Oregon and Ohio State away from home. IU is going to be playing in the Rose Bowl, and the only thing left to figure out is who comes out of the 8-9 matchup. If that doesn’t tell you that anything is possible, I don’t know what will.

The post Predicting the top 12 for Selection Sunday appeared first on Saturday Down South.

By the time that Georgia made it a 3-score game in the 4th quarter to all but silence any chance at a historic Alabama comeback — something that could never be ruled out considering the setting — here’s all you needed to know. Alabama had 1 rushing yard. One. Take away the 2 sacks, and it was … 19. Alabama running backs had as many drops in the passing game as the team had rushing yards.

Now in some circumstances, that’s forgivable. You know, like a mid-September game in which Alabama has to win 13-7 and play the field position game.

But on Saturday? That wasn’t acceptable. Not in the slighest.

A flawed Alabama team will (probably?) still get in the Playoff out of fear that punishing a team who earned a conference title game will start a riot among conference commissioners who are desperate for any way to line their pockets. But at this point, who really knows? Last year’s precedent with SMU was for a 1-loss team who played in a down-to-the-wire ACC Championship against Clemson.

This year’s debate will be about a 2-loss Alabama team who suffered loss No. 3 by making the best thing on its résumé — the win at in late-September at Georgia — look a distant as the Nick Saban era.

Did I say that out loud? Or did it just feel distant in about every possible way on Saturday?

Yeah, 1 rushing yard will make you ask some questions.

But now, the question isn’t about whether this Alabama team, which could finish with its worst rushing attack since 1955, can win a national title. This team is too flawed for that kind of run against 4 elite teams, which is ironic when you remember that Alabama became the first team in SEC history to win 4 consecutive games vs. AP Top 25 teams without any byes or extra rest. Also of note, that was 2 months ago. Does that matter for the résumé? You bet. It’s the entire résumé, no matter what any Notre Dame fan will try to tell you.

The question, though, is now whether Alabama is too flawed for an equally flawed selection committee to put it into the field

A normal showing on Saturday would’ve erased that linger doubt. Even a 10-point loss in which the Tide had a pulse could’ve squashed the notion that idle Miami or Notre Dame deserve to jump the Tide. After all, that extra game wasn’t nothing, and Miami couldn’t even get to the lowly ACC Championship while Notre Dame couldn’t get there because it would rather line its pockets in its own way. It’s an opportunity that the Tide earned by having the best SEC record in the conference that the selection committee valued so much it put 7 such teams in the top 15.

That matters. Maybe that’s what’ll ultimately matter on Sunday.

“If this game goes against our résumé, I don’t think that’s right,” said Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer, who also pointed out that “Alabama was down 14 with 7.5 minutes to go, and we had the ball.”

Spin it however you want. Alabama had no choice but to do that, which is why DeBoer listed all of Alabama’s injuries that’ll be taken care of if it earns a hypothetical Round 1 game in 2 weeks.

But ask yourself this — did you think the first 3-loss at-large team in the field would have multiple blowout losses? That’s what Alabama has. And while this isn’t worth breaking down Alabama’s rushing yards against South Carolina like the selection committee attempted to do when justifying initially ranking it behind 2-loss Notre Dame — that was after the Oklahoma loss — we’ve seen a floor that’s anything but Playoff worthy.

Again, Alabama should’ve been the more desperate team. Sure, Georgia had motivation to avenge the September loss and win an SEC Championship. It was also, at the very least, set up to host a home Playoff game as a considerable favorite. It was Alabama who had the door left open slightly for potentially getting kicked out of the field.

Then 1 rushing yard happened. Jam Miller absence or not, that’s baffling.

Actually, that was a stat that needed to be updated. Alabama finished with -3 rushing yards. Woof.

There was no bark in the Tide, but there certainly was with the Georgia defense. That unit allowed 2 touchdowns in its 4 pre-Playoff games, including the 1 that Alabama scored on Saturday to get on the board in a 21-7 game (it also took 2 15-yard Georgia penalties to move the sticks). That’s what the selection committee would like to see instead of whatever it was that Alabama’s offense put on Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Saturday.

It won’t matter to them that it was the Tide’s first loss in the city of Atlanta since Tim Tebow’s national championship-bound Florida squad beat the Tide in 2008, nor will it matter that it was the fewest Alabama rushing yards since at least 1940. Those are historical feats that’ll add to the accomplishment by the victorious Dawgs, who are now staring at a 2-seed with a Round 1 bye in the Playoff.

What will matter is why Alabama was that lost on that kind of stage. Don’t assume that it’ll be a unanimous opinion in the room in Irvine, Texas, on what to do with the Tide. For once, it feels like the selection committee has a real dilemma on its hands. That’s the position that Alabama put it in by showing up in Atlanta and getting run off the field.

At one point, the Mercedes-Benz Stadium sound crew accidentally started playing Georgia’s celebration music as Gunner Stockton still had multiple kneel-downs to end the game. It didn’t matter. They could’ve cranked that in the second quarter and it wouldn’t have changed anything.

A flawed Alabama team got exposed at the worst time possible, and now the sweat through Selection Sunday will begin.

The post Does Alabama still make the Playoff? Probably? But Georgia exposed a flawed team at the worst time appeared first on Saturday Down South.

To say that it’s a new era of the SEC would be an understatement.

Alex Golesh, Ryan Silverfield, Jon Sumrall, Will Stein, Pete Golding and Lane Kiffin, who becomes the first person to ever coach 3 different SEC schools, represent the new wave of the SEC. Time will tell if the cycle will be remembered fondly, or if it’ll be considered a slew of head-scratching decisions. We’ll play the results on that. For what it’s worth, the last time that the SEC had a major coaching shakeup with 4 moves after the 2019 season, it gave us Eli Drinkwitz, Mike Leach, Sam Pittman and of course, Kiffin. Technically, Pittman was the only coach in that group who was fired, and that didn’t happen until Year 6.

The post-2025 SEC coaching carousel yielded a ton of takeaways. Here are some wild stats about the new SEC coaching fraternity:

Mark Stoops’ firing means Eli Drinkwitz is the second-longest tenured coach in the SEC

Maybe you’ll disagree, but I think that’s more of a revelation than Kirby Smart being the new elder statesman of the SEC. While it’s strange to process that a 49-year-old is the longest-tenured SEC coach, Smart has been the obvious top dog in the conference since Nick Saban‘s retirement. It’s not breaking news to suggest that Smart has the best — and now longest — résumé among SEC coaches.

But think about that with Drinkwitz. He started in 2020 as part of that aforementioned post-2019 cycle. That means Smart is now the only SEC coach who can say he was with his team in the 2010s decade. Drinkwitz and Smart are the only current coaches who were leading their respective teams during the COVID seasons, which feels both recent and distant. At the end of Year 6, Drinkwitz just got an extension to stay in Columbia after his name was being linked to vacancies at Florida and LSU.

That also means if there were a podium of the longest-tenured SEC head coaches, these guys would share the last spot (all of them were hired after the 2020 season):

• Steve Sarkisian
• Clark Lea
• Josh Heupel
• Shane Beamer

None of those coaches feel like they’re flirting with “SEC elder statesman” territory. But alas, it’s a new world.

Only 25% of current SEC coaches have 17 conference wins

Our guy Chris Wright pointed this out. Smart has 69 SEC wins, which is the clear leader among the current coaches. Kiffin is No. 2 on the SEC wins list with 36, Drinkwitz makes the podium again with 26 victories in conference play and Heupel is right behind him with 24 (he had 1 less season).

But look at how few conference wins there are between the other 75% of the current SEC coaches:

• 1. Kirby Smart, 69 SEC wins
• 2. Lane Kiffin, 36
• 3. Eli Drinkwitz, 26
• 4. Josh Heupel, 24
• 5. Shane Beamer, 16
• 6. Steve Sarkisian, 13
• T7. Kalen DeBoer, 12
• T7. Mike Elko, 12
• 9. Clark Lea, 11
• 10. Brent Venables, 8
• 11. Jeff Lebby, 1
• T12. Alex Golesh, Pete Golding, Will Stein, Jon Sumrall, Ryan Silverfield, 0

Sure, part of that leaderboard is skewed a bit by Sarkisian and Venables spending 2-3 seasons in the Big 12. Still, though. Getting to 17 SEC wins is something that Brian Kelly did, and he didn’t even reach November of Year 4. Shoot, Saban technically had a 2-year stretch in which he did that in 2020-21.

The good news for all parties is that a 9-game conference schedule is on the way and they’ll get ample opportunities to climb a wide-open leaderboard.

The oldest SEC coach is now 54-year-old Brent Venables, AKA the psycho that runs stadiums in his spare time

Nothing about Venables screams “oldest guy of the bunch.” He works out like someone 30 years younger, and his in-game persona is as high-energy as anybody in the sport. Venables being the oldest coach in a 16-team conference is the byproduct of all these coaches getting fired/retiring since 2023:

• Nick Saban, retired at 72
• Brian Kelly, fired at 64
• Sam Pittman, fired at 63
• Mark Stoops, fired at 58
• Jimbo Fisher, fired at 58
• Hugh Freeze, fired at 56

Just for a little comparison, the Big Ten has 5 coaches who are older than Venables, including 55-year-old Bret Bielema. That’s right. If Bielema were in the SEC again, he’d return as the conference’s oldest coach.

What does that mean? The conference’s coaches are suddenly a bunch of Millennials.

The SEC entered 2025 with 3 head coaches born in the 1980s … now it has 8

Coming into this season, Lea, Drinkwitz and Lebby were the only SEC coaches who were born in the 1980s. All 5 of the new SEC coaches (excluding Kiffin) joined that club. That’s half the conference who has a coach that was born in the 1980s now:

• Ryan Silverfield, 1980
• Clark Lea, 1981
• Jon Sumrall, 1982
• Eli Drinkwitz, 1983
• Jeff Lebby, 1984
• Pete Golding, 1984
• Alex Golesh, 1984
• Will Stein, 1989

Drinkwitz was the first 1980s-born coach in SEC history when he was hired in Dec. 2019. It’s weird to think that in all likelihood, the next coaching change in the SEC will lead to more than half the conference having birthdays in the 1980s. Shoot, we might not ever see another SEC coach born before 1970.

Well, I suppose we could get an even more bizarre thing to process that nearly happened this cycle. That is, an SEC head coach born in the 1990s.

Speaking of that …

36-year-old Will Stein is the youngest SEC head coach since … Lane Kiffin

All roads lead back to Kiffin. You knew this.

Yes, Stein was born in 1989, so he nearly just missed out on being the first 1990s-born SEC coach ever. But it’s strange to think that someone who is in the same school year as his Oregon offensive coordinator predecessor Kenny Dillingham (a 1990s-born Big 12 coach) and Travis Kelce (along with a certain significant other of his) is now an SEC head coach. Stein beat out Zach Arnett, who was previously the youngest SEC head coach since a 33-year-old Kiffin got the Tennessee job in Nov. 2008. Go figure that both Arnett and Kiffin were 1-and-done when they got their respective SEC head coaching gigs as 30-somethings, albeit for different reasons.

Stein doesn’t figure to be 1-and-done at Kentucky. AKA the school that just had the longest-tenured coach in the SEC … who they also paid $37 million to go away. Both of those reasons should make Stein’s leash a bit longer than most who are joining the SEC coaching fraternity.

Also, the only SEC coaches who are older than Kiffin are Venables (54), Sarkisian (51) and DeBoer (51). We’re living in a world in which the 50-year-old Kiffin is now on the Mt. Rushmore of the oldest current SEC head coaches.

How easy it is to forget that.

The post Some wild stats show just how new of an era it is for SEC coaches appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Georgia legend Aaron Murray joined the show to discuss the coaching carousel, Georgia’s offense and the Year 2 slump for Ryan Williams.

The guys close with Lad of the Week!

Watch the full episode here:

Subscribe to The Saturday Down South Podcast here, and subscribe to Saturday Down South on YouTube for all the latest video content!

The post SDS Podcast: Coaching carousel cleanup, SEC Championship picks, Aaron Murray on Georgia & Ryan Williams appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Not a single one of them was to Ryan Williams.

As in, the preseason All-American and College Football ’26 cover man. Like, the guy who was being compared to Julio Jones after he had as many touchdown catches as any SEC true freshman receiver since Amari Cooper in 2012. But unfortunately, like Cooper, the guy billed as the next great Alabama receiver has endured a sophomore slump. He’s 20th in the SEC with 598 receiving yards, and he’s No. 22 in receiving yards in SEC play (378 yards). On top of that, he’s got 8 drops compared to just 8 missed tackles forced.

That came to a head in a 0-target Iron Bowl showing. Williams’ most notable play of the night might’ve been when he set a (legal) pick that freed up the aforementioned Miller, who was targeted on a swing pass but wasn’t looking or the ball. Outside of that, his name was virtually unheard of on the ABC broadcast.

What’s the deal? How could a player so decorated not get a single touch in such a meaningful game?

“He was out there. There’s nothing to read into there at all. There were opportunities where the ball could’ve found him,” Kalen DeBoer said Sunday (H/T The Tuscaloosa News). “The plays that … it’s not like they’re designed specifically for him. That’s really not how a lot of our offense is. There might be screens and things like that that are intentionally trying to get (players) touches. But as far as pass concepts, we just didn’t get to him in the route, or things like that.

“We’ve got to be intentional because he’s a playmaker for us. The ball just found some other guys and they made plays, like you saw with Isaiah Horton.”

Yes, Williams is still out there

He ran 22 routes and Simpson didn’t look his way, as opposed to Horton, who was a red-zone machine with 3 touchdowns on 28 routes.

Williams ran as many routes in the Iron Bowl as true freshman Lotzeir Brooks, which is not something anybody would’ve anticipated coming into the season but has become a much more likely scenario in a given game. Initially, the plan was for Williams to lock down the slot position. In the season opener at Florida State, Williams lined up in the slot on 54 of 60 snaps. But a 3-drop showing ended with him leaving the game with a concussion in an ugly Alabama loss. That opened the door for Brooks to become a factor in the slot. In the 10 games that Brooks has been healthy after the season-opening loss, he played in the slot almost exclusively between 19-34 times per game. Williams, meanwhile, has transitioned into more of a hybrid role that varies game to game.

In Week 9 at South Carolina, Williams lined up in the slot 39 times compared to 20 snaps out wide. The next game against LSU, that split flipped to 9 slot snaps and 18 out wide (that also included 3 backfield snaps). It was also the lone touchdown catch for Williams in Alabama’s last 7 games.

That was 1 of 4 contested catches that Williams has all season. He’s only had 7 such targets compared to 16 with a less pass-happy offense last season. Why? Is it not being on the same page as Ty Simpson? Is it related to where he lines up? Is it lingering effects of a leg injury that he suffered earlier in the season? Is it just mental?

Maybe it’s all of the above for someone who, in case you forgot, is only 18 years old. He had 7 drops last year, all of which happened after he burst onto the national stage against Georgia. He’s already over that this year with an SEC-high 8 drops, and among SEC receivers with at least 30 targets, he has the second-highest drop rate at 16.7%.

Perhaps another reason why Alabama hasn’t gone out of its way to manufacture touches for Williams is that half of those drops have come on throws that are 9 yards or less from the line of scrimmage. Having a 12.1% drop rate on targets in that range of the field has made him tough to trust.

But why then has it been such a struggle for Williams to at least be a field-stretcher and make splash plays downfield? Is that Simpson? Or is it an offense that’s been more prone to figuring out the best way to protect Simpson from blitz-heavy defenses?

Maybe it’s all of the above.

For what it’s worth, Williams caught 9 of 15 pass attempts that were 20 yards downfield. A 60% completion rate is No. 1 among SEC receivers with 10 such targets. Simpson has 53 downfield attempts (No. 4 in SEC), so it’s not that Alabama just doesn’t attack downfield, and Williams is still the most consistent option in that area, though he did drop a walk-in touchdown in the Georgia matchup in September. Alabama’s 3 other starting receivers all have 3-4 downfield catches apiece. Germie Bernard and Horton are instead more trusted than Williams on 3rd down.

That’s at the root of why Williams hasn’t ascended in the way that many believed he would after Georgia last year

Williams isn’t a move-the-chains receiver yet who can be consistently relied on to catch passes in traffic, and he doesn’t have the size to warrant the type of looks that his teammate, Horton, or 2024 classmate Cam Coleman get in the red zone. He’s on a team with a quarterback who can actually work through his progressions and, on a team with 3-4 pass catchers who have become go-to targets in a given game, quiet days at the office are somewhat inevitable.

Alternatively, perhaps the college football world collectively lost its mind after this play and assumed a play so absurd was the beginning of a legendary career that would be loaded with moments like this.

If Williams didn’t make that play, we wouldn’t be asking these questions about him going into the SEC Championship on Saturday. He’d still be heavily discussed as a former 5-star receiver, but most 17-year-olds don’t make one of the best plays you’ll ever see from a receiver, especially in a game that virtually everyone watched.

Everyone was watching that Iron Bowl, and Williams was nowhere to be found. All eyes will be on the Tide, wherever this postseason run ends up. Williams still figures to have plenty of opportunities to make his mark on Alabama’s 2025 story.

And if he doesn’t, well, surely there won’t be anything to read into there at all.

The post Ryan Williams has gone from cover man to missing in action for Alabama, but why? appeared first on Saturday Down South.

That’s how I’d describe 6 SEC programs filling vacancies in a 36-hour stretch. Six new coaches in the conference, all of whom are in different situations, has brought us to a new era in the SEC.

Don’t believe that? Kirby Smart is the only current SEC coach who was with his team during the 2010s. Eli Drinkwitz is now your second-longest tenured coach while Clark Lea, Shane Beamer, Steve Sarkisian and Josh Heupel would all share a spot on the podium as coaches who just concluded Year 5.

It took a rare, intra-conference move in order for that to be the case, though just like the last time the SEC endured an intra-conference move, it was a coach leaving the state of Mississippi for a team with multiple 21st century national titles. Whether Lane Kiffin lasts longer than Dan Mullen remains to be seen.

What’s obvious is that these moves will be dissected for years to come. This coaching carousel will define the latter half of the decade in the SEC.

So with that in mind, let’s look into the crystal ball and do the impossible task of ranking these hires:

6. Pete Golding, Ole Miss

Anyone can understand why Ole Miss quickly pivoted to Golding in the wake of the dramatic Kiffin departure. Continuity matters a whole lot more for a team set to play in the College Football Playoff as opposed to a team with 5 consecutive losing seasons like Auburn. Golding, as the leader of that defense, gives Ole Miss short-term continuity that could allow it to navigate a 1-for-1 set of circumstances in the Playoff.

But as we saw with another stunning coaching change in the Magnolia State in the wake of Mike Leach’s death, a short-term move to the defensive coordinator still has long-term questions. It’s not just that Golding is running a program for the first time. It’s that he has to find someone who can establish an entirely new offensive identity after one of the most decorated offensive minds in the sport just walked out that door. Even if you’re a defense that handles its business like Ole Miss likely will with Golding, you’re recruiting to an entirely new era of offensive football in Oxford.

It’ll be interesting to see if Golding is able to make a big-time OC hire because it could define his tenure, much like how Zach Arnett’s whiffed OC hire in his attempt to transition away from the Leach Air Raid defined his brief tenure as a head coach. That’s the danger with that move, especially knowing that it’s been an 8-win floor the last 5 years.

5. Ryan Silverfield, Arkansas

Arkansas hired someone for a rebuild who has never had to rebuild. That’s why this is at No. 5 and not No. 2-3. Silverfield spent the last decade at Memphis and took over the program that multiple head coaches before him rebuilt (Justin Fuente never seems to get enough credit for setting Mike Norvell up). In this era, a rebuild includes replacing half the scholarship players in the transfer portal. Even if Silverfield continues a solid track record of evaluating in the portal, doing that in the toughest conference after failing to win a single SEC game could make Year 1 feel more like a Year 0.

On top of that, Silverfield is 12-22 vs. FBS teams who finished .500 or better. That’s not exactly correcting Sam Pittman’s 6-25 mark vs. AP Top 25 competition. The idea of having a limited ceiling probably won’t sit well with Hog fans who have had to watch Arkansas record 1 winning season in SEC play in the post-Bobby Petrino era (post-neckbrace).

But there is a bit of comfort that should come with Silverfield if he gets the alignment needed from those pockets in Fayetteville. Arkansas was doomed in 1-score games during the Pittman era. His 7-19 mark in those games was ultimately his undoing. Chalk that up to being a first-time head coach. Silverfield, on the other hand, was 19-15 in those spots. Only 2 FBS coaches have had more experience in 1-score games in the 2020s than Silverfield. Arkansas knows that all too well because Silverfield pulled off a 3-score comeback against the Hogs, wherein Memphis was much more poised down the stretch.

Silverfield getting early alignment will depend on his Year 1 ability to flip the script in that all-important area and move past the looming, snake-bitten culture.

4. Will Stein, Kentucky

If I’m a quarterback right now, I’m trying to find a way to play for Stein. Period. At a place that had 4 consecutive disappointing years of quarterback play from transfers who entered in as QB1, Stein immediately gives Kentucky an opportunity to right that wrong.

His track record at Oregon is remarkable. He helped turn Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel into Heisman Trophy finalists after both were expected to have somewhat limited ceilings. But if you’re of the belief that both of those guys, who both got an opportunity to start as NFL rookies, were already established, look at the job he did with Dante Moore. The former 5-star recruit willingly left UCLA after he got starts as a true freshman so that he could redshirt a year behind Gabriel and learn under Stein. All Moore has done since becoming the starter in 2025 is become one of the best quarterbacks in the sport for an 11-1 Oregon team that’s been dealing with injuries galore on the offensive side of the ball. But Stein’s ability to adapt to his personnel is second to none.

Stein became an emerging name in the sport during his time in Eugene, but his ties to the Bluegrass State are deep. He’s a Louisville native who played quarterback for the Cardinals, and he’s the son of 2 parents who went to UK, including his dad, Matt, who played at Kentucky in the 1980s. A guy who grew up rooting for that program won’t have to be educated on the power dynamics at play in Lexington.

So why not put Stein even higher on this list? This is a 36-year-old head coach who was a high school coordinator as recently as 2019. Stein’s rise was meteoric, which means someone who has never run a program could have questions about in-game decision-making and assembling a staff. Granted, he had offensive autonomy under the defensive-minded Dan Lanning at Oregon, so he’s at least had a solid dose of that.

Stein had the benefit of working with top-5 recruiting classes and a healthy transfer portal budget during his 3 years building offenses in Eugene, which figures to be a different situation than what he has at Kentucky. Can Stein find the diamonds in the rough like that job might require? And will he have an eye for hiring the right defensive coaches in the way that his former boss, Lanning, seemed to have an eye for hiring the right offensive coaches? Those are unknowns.

After missing out on the Jon Sumrall window, though, Stein is as impressive of a hire as UK could’ve asked for. Speaking of Sumrall …

3. Jon Sumrall, Florida

Let’s get the negative out of the way with Sumrall because there’s a whole lot more to be excited about than disappointed about for Florida fans. He’s not Kiffin. Obviously. Not only is he not Kiffin, but in case you haven’t heard, he’s a Group of 5 coach from the state of Louisiana … just like a certain Billy Napier was. If Sumrall endures a slow start that leads to Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin’s firing, suddenly, alignment is a major question mark in Year 2-3. There’s no guarantee that the defensive-minded Sumrall will figure out the ever-dissected offensive woes in Gainesville, and if there’s even the slightest hint of — dare I say — Will Muschamp-ish offensive football, getting alignment will be that much tougher.

But with Sumrall, all of those potential risks were worth taking. Why? I tend to think Florida fans watched his opening press conference and realized how differently he’s wired from Napier, who let his ego get in the way of finding the right play caller, and he seemed too willing to hire his friends. Sumrall? He’s not here to make friends.

That’s the type of energy that Florida needs. Sumrall is the guy who was asked a couple weeks ago about Tulane getting into the Playoff Poll and potentially earning the Group of 5 bid, only to say “there must be a lot of bad football going on if we’re one of the top 25 teams” (H/T The Next Round). Refreshing. Honest. Direct. Florida hired someone who embraces all of those characteristics.

And yeah, a 42-11 overall record that’s never seen multiple losses in conference play doesn’t carry as much weight coming from the Group of 5 level. But you know who also had a background that included multiple impressive 2-year runs at Group of 5 programs? Urban Meyer, who was 39-8 at his 2 stops before arriving to Florida, and did so during a time when he didn’t have to worry about his 2 best players getting poached like Sumrall had after 2024. Don’t get it twisted. Nobody is holding Sumrall to the Meyer standard, even if that’s what Florida has been chasing for 15 years.

But Sumrall’s defensive acumen — he’s had 4 seasons allowing less than 21 points per game in conference play as a head coach — has some wondering if he’s the next Lanning. As our Neil Blackmon pointed out, Florida had 25 top-20 defenses from 1990-2019. In the 2020s, forget the top 20. Florida has had 5 of 6 defenses finish outside the top 60 in scoring defense. That has to turn around immediately with Sumrall.

Stricklin might’ve botched elements of this coaching search in ways that Florida fans won’t forgive him for. But if Sumrall is considered a consolation prize after he was linked to virtually every SEC opening, that’s a sign that the Gators got someone who is ready for this opportunity.

2. Alex Golesh, Auburn

I’ve thoroughly enjoyed watching Auburn fans learn about Golesh. It seemed like the former USF coach was completely off Auburn’s radar but on the radar of several other SEC programs until that announcement came on Sunday morning. Within hours, Auburn fans went from surprised to impressed.

What’s impressive about Golesh, you ask? Like, why praise someone with a 23-15 record at the Group of 5 level who will likely put pressure on his own defense with such an up-tempo offense?

For starters, USF was 4-29 in the 3 years before Golesh arrived for his first head coaching gig. All he did was completely rebuild that program and have them in Playoff contention deep into the 2025 season, thanks in part to a historic win at Florida.

Golesh, as you recall, was part of another key rebuild at Tennessee, where he was Heupel’s offensive play caller in 2021-22, and he helped the Vols finish with the No. 1 offense in America. The Golesh offense has a proven track record in the SEC, which bodes well for an Auburn program that hasn’t had a top-60 scoring offense in 5 losing seasons of the post-Gus Malzahn era. He’s also got 4 1,000-yard receivers in 6 seasons of running offenses, which matters at an Auburn program that’s stockpiled with receiver talent but is searching for its first 1,000-yard receiver since 1999. You can also go back a decade ago to when Golesh was Matt Campbell’s recruiting coordinator and tight ends coach at Iowa State, where he helped land Brock Purdy to jump-start that rebuild in Ames.

All of that stuff is impressive, but the most noteworthy detail about Golesh’s background goes well beyond the box score. It goes all the way to Moscow. That’s where he and his family left for Brooklyn, where as a first-generation American, he fell in love with college football while watching Michigan-Ohio State and Florida-Tennessee in their cable-less house. Golesh entered the coaching world 2 decades ago without family connections or long history as a player. He slept 4 hours a night when he got the USF job, and he’s vowed to work himself to the bone to get Auburn back at the level it aspires to be at. He’s a grinder in every possible way.

In other words, don’t think for a second that Golesh’s golf scores are ever going to be a topic of conversation on The Plains.

1. Lane Kiffin, LSU

Underneath all the drama with how Kiffin exited Ole Miss was the fact that LSU ended up with the top prize of this coaching carousel. It was a dream hire from that standpoint. There’s no denying that LSU pulled one of the best offensive minds in the sport. For an offense that couldn’t score more than 25 points vs. FBS competition this year, Kiffin is a godsend. His run-game success alone — his units averaged at least 175 yards in 6 seasons at Ole Miss — will be welcomed with open arms at a place that just had consecutive ground attacks finish outside the top 100 in the FBS.

But why this hire is so celebrated is because of Kiffin’s ability to adapt. He had a program that entered 2025 ranked last in the SEC in percentage of returning production after replacing top-5 units on both sides of the ball, and yet with a Division II transfer as his QB1, Kiffin led it to its first 11-win regular season in program history. Four seasons of double-digit wins at Ole Miss is no small feat at a place with 3 such seasons in the 50 years before his arrival.

You know all of that. You don’t know how Kiffin will handle that stage as a head coach. If there’s a knock on him, it’s that he’s never handled massive preseason expectations at an elite level. The 3 times in his career that his team started as a preseason top-15 team, he went a combined 25-14 with 2 unranked finishes and a minimum of 3 regular season losses. As a head coach, he’s never coached in a conference championship game — his 2011 USC squad would’ve made it if not for Pete Carroll era sanctions — or in the Playoff. The latter is ironic considering that many are speculating that Ole Miss will be a completely different team without Kiffin on that stage.

Whatever the case, now is Kiffin’s time to become a Tier 1 coach. At LSU, he sought the alignment he had at Ole Miss with even deeper resources for personnel. Kiffin should have the benefit of landing top portal targets — something that the “Portal King” isn’t ditching in his new digs — while maintaining LSU’s annual ability to land top-5 high school classes.

Kiffin said that he only left Ole Miss for LSU because “it’s just different.” Anything short of a national championship will be deemed a disappointment for one of the splashiest hires in college football history.

The post Ranking the 6 new SEC head coaching hires of 2025 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

For the “rankings don’t matter until the end” crowd, Tuesday night’s College Football Playoff Poll dunked all over that. It had some changes within the top 12 that should’ve raised some eyebrows, perhaps most notably Alabama and Notre Dame changing spots ahead of conference championship weekend. We also saw Texas A&M fall to No. 7 and Miami stand pat at No. 12.

Here’s what the latest poll looked like:

These were the top takeaways from a pivotal Tuesday night ranking:

Win or lose in Atlanta, Alabama is all but locked into a Playoff berth after jumping Notre Dame for the No. 9 spot

That was a significant development after the Tide spent each of the last 2 weeks behind the Irish. What changed? Perhaps nothing more than a change of heart in the eyes of the selection committee. Neither team faced Power Conference bowl teams in true road games, and it was obviously a dog fight for Alabama to survive at Jordan-Hare. Perhaps the fact that Alabama had 4 wins vs. ranked teams at the time of the matchup, including an all-important win at No. 3 Georgia, that moved the Tide past Notre Dame. You could also point to A&M suffering that first loss as a résumé factor for the Irish.

Whatever the case, that was a major bit of news ahead of conference championship weekend knowing that the No. 10 ranking is poised to be the last at-large team in the field. The No. 10 team, which is now idle Notre Dame, could get jumped by BYU if it knocks off Texas Tech in a Big 12 Championship rematch. Alabama, on the other hand, should be in position to benefit from last year’s SMU precedent. We watched Rhett Lashlee’s squad stay in the field ahead of idle teams from the SEC after going to the ACC Championship and losing. I still tend to think that despite the selection committee saying there’s a change this year that the idle conference championship weekend teams will still be evaluated, the selection committee wants to avoid any world in which teams want to opt out of conference title games if it can knock them out of the Playoff.

Does that mean the selection committee would be 100% sold on keeping the Tide if it lost 35-7 in Atlanta? Not necessarily, but it’s about as good of a ranking as Alabama could’ve asked for knowing that Notre Dame’s résumé isn’t changing this weekend.

Would Notre Dame be in jeopardy of missing out altogether if BYU wins and finally forces a side-by-side comp with Miami. As in, the Miami team it already lost to back in Week 1 and has a worse track record with common opponents.

The Irish finally stopped getting the benefit of the doubt on Tuesday.

Texas A&M falling to No. 7 instead of No. 6 was significant for 1 reason

Do I totally agree with A&M falling to No. 7? I don’t. I’d rather have the Aggies at No. 6 ahead of an Ole Miss team that has an extremely similar résumé, but has been more convincing in conference play. That has nothing to do with Lane Kiffin.

So why is it significant if seeds 5-8 are getting a home Playoff game? Isn’t A&M in ideal position to get that even if Alabama and BYU both win their respective conference titles? Yes, but this is about the strength of the matchup. Even if A&M stays at No. 7, it’ll likely face the last at-large team in the field (the No. 10 seed) instead of facing either a Group of 5 champ like Tulane, North Texas, James Madison or potential ACC champ Virginia.

Now, A&M should root for something like a blowout loss for Texas Tech. Aggie fans should be rooting for any scenario in which they move up to No. 6 on Selection Sunday.

Whether that’s realistic remains to be seen.

So yeah, No. 6 Ole Miss was never going to get punished in the rankings for Lane Kiffin leaving

That was dumb. Real dumb. And don’t tell me that Charlie Weis Jr. getting to call plays for Ole Miss made a difference in the eyes of the selection committee, who moved Kiffin’s former team up to No. 6 ahead of aforementioned A&M.

What about 2023 Florida State, you ask? Weren’t the Seminoles punished for not having Jordan Travis.

They were, unfairly so. We also had 2 games of watching that team fail to average 4.0 yards per play, and while it was a bogus decision, there was at least some sort of sample size to say that FSU was a different team.

There’s no sample size of 2025 Ole Miss without Kiffin. Even if there were, why would it make sense to punish his team in a 12-team Playoff when they haven’t been considered borderline to make the field? That take lacked juice.

Speaking of juice, there’ll be a whole lot of it in Oxford when Ole Miss is all but a lock to host a Playoff game.

Stick a fork in No. 13 Texas and No. 14 Vanderbilt, despite their best efforts

I don’t blame Steve Sarkisian and Clark Lea for lobbying on every platform imaginable, but they both knew their teams had slim chances. If their résumés were held against the 2024 field, perhaps that would be a different story. The problem is that both teams haven’t had virtually any top-12 chaos to warrant the selection committee moving them into the field.

The 3-loss résumé for Texas also includes the 3 wins vs. AP Top 10 teams in the regular season, but reality is that Ohio State loss isn’t the dealbreaker that Sarkisian has made it out to be. Is there a good chance that Texas is in the field with a 10-2 record if Ohio State were instead Bowling Green? Sure, but even that’s not a certainty because that Florida loss aged like an avocado. It didn’t help that Texas got pummeled at Georgia late in the season. It would’ve helped had Texas been an otherwise-dominant team in SEC play, but the Longhorns had an average scoring margin of +2.8 against conference foes because it needed overtime to beat 5-win teams like Kentucky and Mississippi State.

Vanderbilt, on the other hand, had nearly all of its wins age like an avocado. As much as we’d love to see this story continue, look at the best wins:

• vs. Mizzou (finished 8-4)
• at Tennessee (finished 8-4)
• vs. LSU (finished 7-5)

Those are the only 3 wins vs. FBS teams who finished with a winning record. If Vandy had gone into Alabama and won like Oklahoma did, that 10-2 would look a bit different. But that didn’t happen. Unfortunately for the Commodores, a loaded top 12 that figures to see several 10-win teams left out will likely include them.

If chalk plays out during conference championship weekend, we’ll likely know the top 12, but just not seeding

In case you need a reminder, this is chalk:

• Ohio State beats Indiana
• Georgia beats Alabama
• Texas Tech beats BYU
• Virginia beats Duke
• Tulane beats North Texas
• James Madison beats Troy

If that’s the case, Virginia and Tulane get the last 2 spots in the field while Notre Dame likely stands pat at No. 10. Again, Alabama falling out of the field in favor of an idle team seems unlikely. If that played out and those were all just standard, 1-score wins, this would be my guess for seeding on Selection Sunday:

• 1. Ohio State
• 2. Georgia
• 3. Indiana
• 4. Texas Tech
• 5. Oregon
• 6. Ole Miss
• 7. Texas A&M
• 8. Oklahoma
• 9. Alabama
• 10. Notre Dame
• 11. Virginia (as ACC champ)
• 12. Tulane (as highest ranked Group of 5 champ)

If we get a straightforward weekend, expect a fairly straightforward Selection Sunday.

Fingers crossed that isn’t the case.

The post Takeaways from an eventful penultimate College Football Playoff Poll of 2025 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Tuesday night? It matters. A lot.

The selection committee will tip its hand before conference championship weekend and likely rank a whole bunch of idle teams in slots that won’t change. That’ll matter to a whole bunch of teams.

So what will the last Tuesday ranking — Selection Sunday will set the field after conference championship weekend — look like? Let’s predict that:

12. BYU

BYU’s path is obvious knowing that it’s all about beating Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship. Unlike some of the others in the top 12, it’s straightforward how this will look. That’s the comforting thought instead of an idle team like Miami, who could be in position to jump the Cougars this ranking.

11. Miami (FL)

The Canes have been moved up in every ranking since inexplicably debuting at No. 18. The irony is that the selection committee’s initial argument for why the head-to-head didn’t matter against Notre Dame was because their résumés were too far apart to be evaluated in a side-by-side context. Miami then closed the regular season by beating Pitt by 31 points, which was even greater than Notre Dame’s 22-point margin against Pat Narduzzi’s squad. Look at their mutual opponents:

• Pitt — Miami won by 31, Notre Dame won by 22
• Syracuse — Notre Dame won by 63, Miami won by 28
• Stanford — Miami won by 35, Notre Dame won by 29
• NC State — Miami won by 34, Notre Dame won by 29

So that’s 4 mutual opponents, 3 of which saw Miami have a scoring advantage. If not beating Syracuse by a billion made the difference there for Miami, that’s certainly a weird dynamic to consider.

10. Alabama

The Tide simply had to survive at Jordan-Hare to keep its Playoff hopes alive. This ranking is pivotal because it can’t afford to get jumped by Miami, who’ll be idle. Whoever earns the No. 10 ranking appears that it’ll be the last team into the field. If BYU beats Texas Tech, I would expect that would be bad news for Alabama if it loses the SEC Championship. But if Texas Tech wins as nearly a 2-touchdown favorite, I tend to think Alabama will benefit from last year’s SMU precedent and it won’t be punished for earning a conference title game.

9. Notre Dame

I’ve already spoken ad nauseam about why the Irish should be behind both Alabama and Miami, but I digress. This is a projection. I project that the Irish won’t fall out of that No. 9 ranking after blowing out lowly Stanford. This will all but guarantee that Notre Dame is in the field. Clearly, the selection committee just believes that the Irish are better than Alabama and Miami.

8. Oklahoma

The Sooners might have the worst offense to ever have an imminent Playoff berth, but that’s not going to matter with this ranking. That defense is special. Getting to 10-2 with 6 AP Top 25 opponents to navigate is no small feat. Holding on to the No. 8 ranking matters here because of what it means to have that potential home Playoff game. If Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC Championship, though, I would expect the Tide to jump Oklahoma, even with not having the head-to-head advantage. Why? Because winning the SEC — something that has earned a top-4 seed in all 11 years of the Playoff — by beating UGA twice would carry a ton of weight.

7. Ole Miss

No, I do not believe the selection committee is going to truly factor in Lane Kiffin‘s absence with its ranking. Not for an Ole Miss team who hasn’t played a game with those circumstances. That’s where this differs than the 2023 Florida State situation when you had the selection committee watch 2 Jordan Travis-less games in which the Seminoles failed to hit 4.0 yards per play. Ole Miss will still be in a nice spot to host a home Playoff game.

6. Texas A&M

This is the most interesting ranking because we don’t know how much Texas A&M will be dinged for letting a winnable Texas game get out of whack in Austin. A&M only has 1 true résumé win at Notre Dame, but it’s clearly one that the selection committee values. A&M has nearly an identity résumé as Ole Miss. I tend to think that A&M won’t free fall for losing to a respectable, but underachieving Texas team, who will likely be in the top 15.

5. Oregon

The Ducks have quietly racked up 4 consecutive wins vs. Power Conference teams with a winning record. Oregon might not have a premier win because of how the Penn State victory aged, but 6 wins vs. Power Conference bowl teams is nothing to scoff at. Just for a little perspective, Ohio State has just as many. The Ducks might not have a clear path to a Round 1 bye, but getting a 5-seed and facing a Group of 5 team in Eugene would be the next-best thing.

4. Texas Tech

Welcome to 2025, when perhaps the most likely result of the weekend is Texas Tech winning a Big 12 Championship and having a legitimate argument for a Round 1 bye. The Red Raiders have won 5 consecutive games by 3 scores, including the blowout win against BYU, who’ll get a shot at revenge on Saturday. The selection committee values the “eye test,” and Texas Tech has passed that with flying colors because of how dominant its been in every game that Behren Morton has been healthy.

3. Georgia

Georgia could lose the SEC Championship and still potentially have a path to a Round 1 bye. That’s what UGA earned after winning an ugly game against Georgia Tech for its 4th win vs. an AP Top 25 team this year. The Dawgs might not have been as dominant as they were in the first part of November, but they did what they had to do in order to be locked into a top-4 spot heading into conference championship weekend. Whether UGA would’ve been locked into a top-4 guy without having to play in the SEC Championship, well, that’s another story.

2. Indiana

The funny thing about Indiana’s résumé is that nobody is talking about how it doesn’t feature a team with a winning record in the latter half of the schedule. But why has the conversation been so different than last year? The Oregon win. It’s held up. The win at Iowa and the dominant win against Illinois added some depth to the résumé. IU’s in position to have a Round 1 bye if it at least plays a competitive game against Ohio State, where the No. 1 overall seed will be up for grabs.

1. Ohio State

Be gone, Michigan demons. That might’ve made the Big Ten Championship irrelevant for the Buckeyes’ Round 1 bye aspirations because of how dominant these victories have been. Forget trailing in the second half. Ohio State hasn’t had a 1-score lead in the 4th quarter since September. The Buckeyes likely won’t be playing in Round 1 like they did last year. Whether that changes the likelihood to a national title remains to be seen.

The post Predicting the top 12 of the fifth Playoff Poll of 2025 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

For the 4th time in the last 9 seasons, Alabama and Georgia will face off for a conference title. For the 8th time in the Kirby Smart era, he’ll lead UGA in an SEC Championship, and for the 9th time in the Smart era, he’ll face the Alabama program that he left.

Smart is, in case you haven’t heard, 1-7 in those matchups having lost his first 2 to Kalen DeBoer, including a 24-21 thriller earlier in the season in Athens. Something tells me that’ll come up once or twice this week.

But that’s not the only thing that matters for the SEC Championship. Here are some early thoughts on what’s at stake in Atlanta:

Yes, I believe Alabama will get a Round 1 bye with a win

Why? There’s more than a decade of precedent from the selection committee of giving the SEC Championship winner a top-4 seed:

• 2014 Alabama, 1 seed
• 2015 Alabama, 2 seed
• 2016 Alabama, 1 seed
• 2017 Georgia, 3 seed
• 2018 Alabama, 1 seed
• 2019 LSU, 1 seed
• 2020 Alabama, 1 seed
• 2021 Alabama, 1 seed
• 2022 Georgia, 1 seed
• 2023 Alabama, 4 seed
• 2024 Georgia, 2 seed (got auto-bye as 1 of 4 highest-ranked conference champs)

Yes, it’s a new year with a different field at the top. But there’s no chance that Alabama is going to stay behind Georgia if it wins that matchup for a second time. The debate wouldn’t be about Alabama being worthy of a top-4 seed; it would be if Alabama’s résumé, which would include 5 wins over AP Top 25 foes, would be enough to jump potential Big 12 champ Texas Tech and the Big Ten Championship loser.

That’s where it could depend on how those games feel. Does Alabama drop the hammer on Georgia? Is the Big Ten Championship a lopsided affair? Does Texas Tech control the tempo against BYU again? But again, that’s just for how seeding would look among those Round 1 byes.

It’s wild to think that Alabama entered the regular-season finale with so much variance. Who knew the 12-team Playoff could produce such a thing?

Georgia falling out of the Round 1 bye with a loss would make more sense than Alabama falling out of the CFP with a loss … unless BYU pulls off a stunner

Speaking of SEC Championship precedent, Georgia losing the SEC Championship would be like what Texas experienced last year at the hands of the Dawgs. That is, enter conference championship weekend as a 1-loss team, but lose for the second time to a 2-loss team who would have a seeding advantage. Worst-case scenario, Georgia is going to have a home Playoff game in which it figures to be a significant favorite.

Alabama, on the other hand, has a different type of precedent that’s working in its favor. Last year, SMU wasn’t punished for earning an ACC Championship berth and falling behind idle teams with that loss to Clemson. That’s good news for the Tide to fend off teams like Miami (FL), Utah and Vandy, who it beat in Tuscaloosa.

Where things get much less certain is if BYU knocks off Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship. BYU isn’t getting left out of the field, so if Alabama is considered the last team in at No. 10 in the pre-conference title Playoff Poll, it would be in jeopardy of falling out. At the same time, let’s pretend for this argument that Alabama was idle heading into this weekend and BYU beat Texas Tech. The Tide would still get jumped by BYU.

That’s why that Notre Dame ranking a couple weeks ago was so significant. The Irish will be idle, and in the unlikely event that Alabama could jump Marcus Freeman’s squad just by beating Auburn, that doesn’t figure to change heading into conference championship weekend. Alabama losing but jumping Notre Dame to stay in the field wouldn’t make sense, which is why Alabama isn’t necessarily a lock to make the field yet.

The good news, though, is that BYU is nearly a 2-touchdown underdog (via FanDuel) against a Texas Tech team who dominated the first matchup. In addition to making their first ever Big 12 Championship appearance, the Red Raiders are playing for a Round 1 bye. In other words, there’s still a ton of incentive for Texas Tech to show up and make sure that BYU doesn’t crash Alabama’s Playoff party.

Georgia’s biggest issue in that first matchup was getting off the field on 3rd down … has that been fixed?

The first time these teams met, Ty Simpson was surgical on 3rd down. Alabama converted a whopping 13-for-19 3rd-down attempts, which proved to be the difference in a 3-point game in which the Tide didn’t score a point in the second half. Georgia’s lack of a pass rush proved costly and Simpson played like someone who was in complete control.

Has Georgia fixed that? In the games that Georgia played in November, here’s what those opposing 3rd-down conversion rates were:

• Florida: 2-for-11
• Mississippi State: 8-for-16
• Texas: 2-for-12
• Charlotte: 1-for-11
• Georgia Tech: 4-for-11
• Total: 17-for-61 (27.9%)

Georgia was No. 13 in FBS in opposing 3rd-down conversion rate in November. Alabama, meanwhile, regressed in that department in November with a 38.9% 3rd-down conversion rate the last month, including a 4-for-17 mark against the blitz-heavy Auburn defense. That’s down from 45.6% in October and 54.6% in August/September.

It’s worth noting that Alabama converted 70% of its 4th-down attempts in November, which was the 7th-best rate among FBS teams with 10 such attempts. That included a 3-for-3 mark against Auburn, who couldn’t get a stop on the game-winning touchdown to ultimately clinch Alabama’s spot in Atlanta.

But it does feel like that script has at least flipped a bit since these teams met in September. Georgia has been much better at consistently dialing up pressure. The return of captain/sacks leader CJ Allen for the Georgia Tech game was crucial, even if he wasn’t making big-time plays like he has been all season. Raylen Wilson and Christen Miller have been Georgia’s most consistent pass rushers with a combined 14 hurries in the last 3 Power Conference games.

The blueprint on containing Simpson has been dialing up unique pressure packages. Doing that and forcing the Tide to mass-protect — potentially with a freshman running back — could be the name of the game for Smart and Glenn Schumann.

The mid-game injuries to Jam Miller and Drew Bobo on Saturday felt like they changed their respective offenses

I’ve been critical of Miller this year, but in the first half against Auburn, he looked like the guy we saw against Mizzou. But unfortunately, like the Mizzou game, Miller left with an injury. He left Saturday night’s game on crutches in a boot, and after his departure, the Alabama ground attack faded.

That’s the case on the Georgia side with Bobo, who also spent the second half of the regular-season finale in a boot and watched the UGA ground attack fade. It’s unknown what Bobo’s availability will be on Saturday, but it was clear that his dad’s offense was stuck in neutral without him. Perhaps there was some game managing going on there. UGA could play the long game with the valuable center and not take any chances in the SEC Championship.

If both players are out, that would change offensive game plans significantly. Alabama has had to adapt to Miller’s absence more than UGA with Bobo, but it’s hard to stomach that type of a loss after seeing what the veteran back looked like on Saturday night when he had a season-high 63 yards after first contact. Miller also got 19 scrimmage touches in the first Georgia matchup when he returned to the lineup after missing the first 3 games. With or without Miller, it’ll be an all-hands-on-deck effort against UGA’s No. 6 run defense in FBS.

In other words, it’s fair to have some skepticism about how both ground attacks will look on Saturday.

Remember Ryan Williams?

Like, the guy who was the youngest college football video game cover athlete ever? Like, the guy who did this to Georgia?

Yeah, that guy. He didn’t have a single target against Auburn. His most noteworthy play might’ve been when he ran a pick play that freed up the aforementioned Miller on a wheel route, but the effort was for naught because the Alabama back wasn’t ready for the pass.

Williams is the guy who burst onto the national scene against Georgia last year. Since that game, he hit 100 yards once. Since Week 7, he has just 19 catches for 262 yards and a touchdown. That’s a 7-game sample size in which Williams has been quiet. DeBoer said after the Auburn game that his lack of involvement wasn’t intentional, but that they needed to do a better job of finding ways to get a player of his caliber more touches after he has just 7 in Alabama’s last 4 contests.

To be fair, it’s not that Alabama has forgotten about him. He’s had nearly a 50-50 split of wide snaps vs. slot snaps, and after struggling with drops early in the season, he’s only had 2 drops in that 7-game stretch, which included an 11-target game against South Carolina.

But it is bizarre to think a player so decorated had just 378 receiving yards in 8 conference games (No. 22 in SEC). He’s 3rd on Alabama in both 3rd-down catches (9) and contested catch targets (7) this season. That can’t be pinned entirely on the emergence of Lotzeir Brooks out of the slot, but that and a lack of yards after catch (244 YAC yards this year compared to 397 last year) have played a part in what’s been a quiet year for Williams.

Saturday would be as good a time as any to re-introduce himself to Georgia and the college football world.

A couple of Kalen DeBoer stats to chew on

You already know about the 2-0 mark vs. Smart. Let’s get a little creative.

In 4 years as a Power Conference head coach, DeBoer is 9-2 vs. AP Top 25 teams in games played in November or later. That .818 winning percentage lines up with his .850 winning percentage in all games played vs. ranked foes since he became a Power Conference coach in 2022. In that stretch, DeBoer is 7-1 vs. AP Top 10 teams win the lone loss being in the 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship vs. Michigan. Among coaches with 4 such games, DeBoer’s .875 winning percentage is easily the best among active coaches.

Who’s No. 2 on that list? Smart, with at .769 (10-3). Both Smart and DeBoer are tied with Ryan Day for the most wins away from home vs. AP Top 10 teams (5) since the start of 2022.

Say what you want about DeBoer handling all the ebbs and flows of being Nick Saban’s successor at Alabama. What cannot be denied is his track record in big-time matchups.

Saturday would certainly qualify as that.

The post Early thoughts on yet another Alabama-Georgia showdown in the 2025 SEC Championship appeared first on Saturday Down South.

The guys closed with a prediction of the CFP Top 12.

Watch the full episode here:

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The post SDS Podcast: An SEC coaching apocalypse! An epic Iron Bowl & Rivalry Week thoughts appeared first on Saturday Down South.

If I were Ole Miss athletic director Keith Carter, that’s what I would’ve told Lane Kiffin if he told me that he wanted to coach the program in its first ever Playoff berth, but after he had already agreed to become LSU‘s coach. Thankfully for Ole Miss, that’s exactly what Carter did.

Yes, Kiffin is the best coach in program history. Yes, his portal hits and roster construction have Ole Miss enjoying a special season. Yes, Kiffin gives Ole Miss a better chance to win than anybody else on that coaching staff, which is why Kiffin was set to become an 8-figure coach if he stayed in Oxford instead of bolting for Baton Rouge.

But wait, you want to stick around even though you just signed up to become direct intra-conference competition with the ability to poach that entire roster and coaching staff?

No shot.

Praise Ole Miss and roll your eyes at Kiffin. Roll your eyes at a coach who vowed he was in a different place spiritually, only to record his 5th messy breakup since he entered the national spotlight nearly 2 decades ago.

It’s not that Kiffin left Ole Miss. We can debate the upside of that move and whether he made a mistake about leaving a place where he was closer to statue territory than roughly 99% of current college football coaches.

What cannot be debated is how baffling it is that Kiffin thought he’d be able to coach Ole Miss through the Playoff

Kiffin couldn’t handle Alabama OC duties in the 2016 College Football Playoff after taking the FAU job, which was why he was given an early exit by Nick Saban. How on earth could Kiffin assume that he could handle game-planning for the Playoff while trying to rebuild LSU over the next month? This wasn’t Scott Frost staying on at UCF to coach in the Peach Bowl before leaving for Nebraska, nor was it Jon Sumrall staying at Tulane to coach in a conference title game before leaving for Florida, who missed out on the Kiffin sweepstakes.

Those programs aren’t competing for the same thing. In theory, LSU and Ole Miss are competing for the same thing. Kiffin leaving Playoff-bound Ole Miss for LSU would suggest that he doesn’t feel that’s the case. Just as we saw with Brian Kelly when he left a potentially-Playoff bound Notre Dame team for LSU at the end of the 2021 season, that move doesn’t happen without titles in mind. Not for a coach who was set to make tens of millions of dollars on a new contract if he stayed.

Kiffin had alignment, and he had a Playoff-bound team. Ole Miss gave him everything he asked for, perhaps with the exception of a student section that showed up early for 11 a.m. kickoffs.

(The irony is that an 11 a.m. kickoff in Baton Rouge is historically the ultimate “please show up, fans” game for the LSU head coach.)

Ole Miss kept a historically successful coach for 6 years, which was about 3-4 years longer than many assumed would be the case when Kiffin took the job in Dec. 2019. He needed Ole Miss more than Ole Miss needed him, he repeatedly said. The program was eventually able to retain its staff with moves like fending off Florida for OC Charlie Weis Jr., and before the 2025 season, Ole Miss gave Pete Golding a 3-year contract that made him one of the 4 highest-paid defensive coordinators in the sport.

Speaking of Golding, he’ll now get the task of being a head coach for the first time. As for what sort of offensive staff he’ll have to work with, well, let’s wait and see what that looks like after Kiffin tries to bring Ole Miss’ staff to LSU like he’s Michael Scott when he started “The Michael Scott Paper Company.”

Ole Miss losing staffers wouldn’t be an indictment of the program because it currently has bigger things on its mind with Golding.

That is, playing in a Playoff game for the first time. You know, the thing that Kiffin didn’t realize he’d be sacrificing when he agreed to become LSU’s next coach.

Or for all I know, maybe Kiffin did know that was going to be nearly impossible, but he still tried to talk Carter into letting him stick around to try and get some Playoff glory.

Kiffin clearly wanted 1 more send-off in Oxford before moving on to the bigger — and in his eyes — better job

Good for Ole Miss for not allowing it. Plenty of others probably would’ve and instead looked like the unpopular kid who was just grateful to have gotten to take a cheerleader to prom.

Nah. Don’t let someone become bigger than the program. Kiffin coaching Ole Miss in the Playoff would’ve been that.

Instead, Kiffin will have to watch Ole Miss on that stage without him. Even if Ole Miss is 1-and-done in the Playoff, it should forever eat at Kiffin that he went about this the way that he did. Maybe he’ll finally say all the right things and indicate that LSU was the only job he would’ve ever left for. Coming from the same guy who said that USC was the only job he would’ve left Tennessee for, um, that’d fall a touch flat.

What this turned into was a spectacle. If Kiffin was truly set on leaving, he should’ve understood what this meant for his Playoff aspirations at Ole Miss. It didn’t have to be like this. Another messy breakup certainly wasn’t what Kiffin envisioned for his Ole Miss sendoff, but it’s absolutely what he got. Will that be forgotten when Kiffin makes his return to Oxford for the LSU-Ole Miss matchup next year?

No shot.

The post Praise Ole Miss after Lane Kiffin went about his LSU move in the most Lane Kiffin way possible appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Rivalry Week was loaded with intrigue, and not just because of Lane Kiffin. We had questions galore to answer in the final weekend of the regular season.

Would we have any more SEC coaching changes? Would Ole Miss, Oklahoma and Alabama avoid disaster and lock in Playoff berths? Would Diego Pavia lock in a Heisman Trophy berth? Oh, and who would get to Atlanta?

That’s just the beginning of what was an eventful weekend in the SEC. Here were the biggest takeaways:

Lane Kiffin’s destination is still … not official

At this point, Kiffin not going to LSU would be a stunner. After reportedly meeting with Ole Miss AD Keith Carter for several hours, Marty Smith (bless him for the hours spent in Oxford on “Kiffin watch”) reported that “the overwhelming sentiment” is that Kiffin is off to Baton Rouge. What’s the hold-up then? Coaching in the Playoff. That’s messy now with Ole Miss slated for an imminent Playoff berth after it took care of business with a dominant Egg Bowl victory.

Will Ole Miss let him coach in the Playoff if he leaves? Should it? It feels like if that answer were a definitive “yes,” we would’ve seen a resolution on Saturday, as originally expected. But as of this writing, nothing is official, but multiple outlets reported that Kiffin has a team meeting tomorrow at 9 a.m. CT.

The watch continues.

Kalen DeBoer didn’t coach like someone who earned a giant exhale, and now, he gets a Georgia rematch (and likely a Playoff berth)

In non-Kiffin news, the SEC Championship is set. Don’t ya know it, it’s the same Alabama-Georgia matchup we’ve had 3 times in the previous 7 seasons. But it’ll be the first SEC Championship appearance for Kalen DeBoer, who had to survive haunted Jordan-Hare to punch Alabama’s ticket. Instead of turtling like DeBoer has against unranked foes 4 times during his 2 years in Tuscaloosa, he coached like someone with nothing to lose. The 4th-and-2 decision to go for it in a tie game with 4 minutes to play might’ve been the ultimate sliding doors for the DeBoer era.

No big deal. Just another Ty Simpson-to-Isaiah Horton touchdown.

DeBoer didn’t flinch even though Auburn overcame a 17-0 deficit and had seemingly all the momentum late. Simpson was 3-for-3 on 4th down, which included a pair of runs and that go-ahead score with 4 minutes to play. DeBoer’s credentials for the Alabama job have been questioned at various points, but what can’t be questioned is his faith in his team to win close games. The Tide have a trio of 1-score wins in true road games this season. Perhaps that’ll come in handy in the event that Alabama is the last at-large team into the Playoff field, and it has a road game in Round 1.

Alternatively, DeBoer can beat Kirby Smart for the 3rd time and add another impressive notch to his growing belt by leading the Tide to a Round 1 bye. Both are much more optimistic projections than what would’ve faced DeBoer and the Tide had they blown that one at Auburn.

Texas still owns Texas A&M, but it doesn’t own a Playoff path

Sorry, Steve Sarkisian. As impressive as it was that your team handed Texas A&M its first loss en route to a third top-10 victory this season — something no team accomplished in the 2020s — it wouldn’t be a “disservice” to leave Texas out of the Playoff. As much as Sarkisian has tried convincing the masses that Texas played at a championship level and that it was being punished for scheduling Ohio State, it didn’t take advantage of its opportunities.

The Longhorns were given grace for that 7-point loss to Ohio State. They were given less grace for losing to free-falling Florida, and then getting blown out at Georgia. If this were the 2024 field all over again, sure, Texas would have a legitimate case. But there are much cleaner résumés for 1- and 2-loss teams that don’t include disastrous losses like Texas experienced at Florida. It’s tougher knowing that loss was sandwiched between USF and Tennessee both earning historic wins in The Swamp.

The Longhorns also had overtime wins at lowly Mississippi State and Kentucky, both of whom missed bowl games. This wasn’t a team that played at a championship level who simply got a bad break here and there. Most of that was on the offense, but even the defense fell off down the stretch with 4 consecutive games of allowing at least 31 points, including 37 in a 500-yard showing from 2-win Arkansas a week earlier.

Texas finally looked the part in the second half against Texas A&M, and that should be celebrated. It just shouldn’t be rewarded with a Playoff berth.

Not all is lost, but Texas A&M blew a golden opportunity

That mattered. A lot. It mattered that A&M had a chance to go 12-0 with a win against Texas, which could’ve produced the program’s first conference championship appearance since 1998. Marcel Reed’s ankle and Heisman Trophy hopes took an unfortunate turn, and instead of being in ideal position to earn a Round 1 bye, 11-1 A&M will now likely have to host a Round 1 Playoff game.

Yes, that’s a scenario that any A&M fan would’ve signed up for back in August. Shoot, any A&M fan would’ve signed up for that after Notre Dame. Mike Elko deserves a ton of credit for that.

If you’re Elko, you can spin this in a couple of different ways. One is that you can now get your quarterback some extra rest on that ankle. You can perhaps get Le’Veon Moss back the next time that you step on the field. You can also figure out those run-game issues that surfaced in the form of allowing Texas to have a 100-yard rusher for the first time this year. We’ve seen teams like 2017 Alabama, 2021 Georgia and most recently, 2024 Ohio State, all suffer late-season losses, and then become the best versions of themselves en route to a national championship.

Perhaps it’s not realistic to assume that A&M will shift into overdrive after the Texas loss, but Elko can turn that loss into a postseason spark if he plays his cards right.

Diego Pavia and Co., you’re heading to New York

Yeah, Pavia had already led Vanderbilt to its first 9-win regular season since the Woodrow Wilson administration, but think about the optics if Vandy had been blown out in Knoxville. His “run the state” comments would’ve been used against him and Vandy’s Playoff aspirations would’ve died well before Selection Sunday.

Yeah, about that.

All Pavia did was walk into Neyland Stadium like he owned it. His 433 total yards (268 passing and 165 rushing) and 4 touchdowns fueled a dominant second half in which Vandy outscored Tennessee 24-3. Mind you, that was after Pavia threw a pair of interceptions for the first time in over a year. He was in total control. Again. Pavia might’ve gotten some help from Sedrick Alexander and future Mackey Award winner Eli Stowers, but he reminded everyone that he’s the straw that stirs the drink.

It’ll be hard to imagine a scenario in which Pavia isn’t 1 of the 4 Heisman Trophy finalists, which Vandy has never had. Jeremiyah Love won’t get a conference championship showcase, either, but guys like Julian Sayin and Fernando Mendoza could be battling for the award in Indianapolis next week. Still, though. What Pavia did to at least put Vandy in the Playoff discussion is the stuff of legend.

Get ready for Pavia’s family to get the full Heisman spotlight.

Oklahoma, you’re in. Offense, you’re out.

It’s bad. Like, real bad. You could argue that after John Mateer’s 3-interception disaster against LSU, Oklahoma has the worst offense to ever earn a Playoff berth.

You know what, though? Any Oklahoma fan would’ve taken that at any point in the last year if it meant reaching the Playoff. Thanks to a busted coverage on that Isaiah Sategna go-ahead touchdown with 4 minutes left, Brent Venables avoided disaster. Well, his defense also had something to do with that. LSU didn’t even hit 200 yards of offense, and Michael Van Buren was out of sorts all day. For the fifth time this year, Oklahoma won while scoring 24 or less.

This is the Venables experience. Once again, it was without R Mason Thomas, and once again, that defense did all the heavy lifting. Peyton Bowen continued his All-SEC season with a remarkable interception in the end zone, as well as the game-sealing batted pass on 4th down. And as bad as Mateer was for the majority of that game, he stayed mentally locked in to recognize that the closest defender to Sategna was in Tulsa.

OU now will be in good position to host a home Playoff game. It’s possible that this team’s upside is going to be limited by an offense that hasn’t hit 360 yards since Week 3, but for now, Venables and Co. have earned the right to celebrate what’ll likely be their first Playoff berth of the post-Lincoln Riley era. Riley, meanwhile, is still in search of his first trip back.

Sooner fans can sleep well knowing that.

Georgia getting to yet another SEC Championship might not have been universally celebrated, but it should be universally appreciated

First-world problems? That’s what it felt like for Georgia to watch Texas beat Texas A&M and ultimately punch the Dawgs’ ticket to Atlanta. Plenty of Georgia fans would’ve preferred to stay at home and perhaps still get a Round 1 bye during a rare idle conference championship weekend. Instead, they’ll have to earn that in Atlanta. Given Georgia’s key injuries with the likes of Drew Bobo and CJ Allen, that might’ve been met with a bit of a groan.

But let’s put that aside for a second. Lost in the shuffle of what turned out to be an ugly win against ever-gritty Georgia Tech, Georgia earned its 8th SEC Championship berth in the last 9 years. Think about that. Teams like aforementioned A&M haven’t played in a conference title game in the 21st century. UGA also earned its 33 win vs. an AP Top 25 team under Kirby Smart. That passed Nick Saban for the most in that stretch.

Georgia has earned the right to think there are bigger things worth chasing than SEC Championship berths. But another 11-1 season that’s now ticketed for, at the very least, a home Playoff game, is absolutely worth appreciating.

These are the golden years.

The post The biggest SEC takeaways from 2025 Rivalry Week appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Context. It’s needed. It’s always needed when it comes to the Iron Bowl at Jordan-Hare. Then again, maybe context just muddies the spooky waters on The Plains.

With Alabama locked in a tie game as the clock ticked under 4 minutes, DeBoer was faced with a decision that would’ve haunted him if it didn’t work. That is, take the points and attempt a chip-shot field goal, or go for it on 4th-and-2 from the 6-yard line. Perhaps the well-documented kicking issues with Conor Talty factored into the decision, or maybe it was just DeBoer trusting that a team that had already won a trio of 1-score games on the road would make the right play in that spot.

With 3 receivers bunched to the left and a pair of tight ends lined up inline on the right, Simpson did something that seemed impossible at certain points on Saturday night. He didn’t panic, he trusted a true freshman tight end to run the perfect pin-down on a pair of Auburn defenders, he trusted his progressions and he trusted Isaiah Horton to be open in the end zone one more time.

The stuff of legend? You bet.

Never mind the fact that Auburn just clinched its 5th consecutive losing season. As Nick Saban himself said on many an occasion, Jordan-Hare is haunted. It can spook anyone, especially the guy in his first trip there like DeBoer.

Nope. No worries. DeBoer not only stared down the Jordan-Hare ghosts in his first visit to Auburn, but by surviving, he can now take another first trip next week. An SEC Championship berth awaits, as does another matchup with Georgia, AKA the team that DeBoer already beat twice during his first 2 seasons in Tuscaloosa.

But back to 4th-and-2.

Why do it? Why not just take the points?

Context.

Fair point. In hindsight, “Gravedigger” was a touch more challenging than dialing up the right look on 4th-and-2.

DeBoer didn’t coach that game afraid, even though missing the Playoff with 2 SEC losses to close the regular season would’ve hung over him much longer than any Jordan-Hare voodoo. Had DeBoer lost on Saturday night to leave Alabama out of the 12-team Playoff era, he would’ve shown up on every offseason hot-seat list. Nobody would’ve cared that he became the first coach in SEC history to win 4 consecutive games vs. AP Top 25 competition without any byes or extra rest, and nobody would’ve cared about that 2-0 record vs. Kirby Smart.

Instead, the focus would’ve shifted to why DeBoer can’t seem to avoid land mine losses to unranked foes. Three months ago, DeBoer had to hear about his 4th loss to an unranked foe after Alabama laid an egg at Florida State. Losing to 4 unranked foes in the first 14 games was seen as fatal considering the context of his predecessor going without such a loss from 2008-20.

Also of note, DeBoer has since gone 5-0 in those matchups vs. unranked FBS foes. Anything less and Alabama wouldn’t have punched a ticket to Atlanta for the 4th time in a 6 seasons of the 2020s.

Of course, DeBoer doesn’t get credit for the 3 SEC Championship appearances (and victories) under Saban in that stretch. Some would argue that DeBoer isn’t even worthy of full credit for Simpson because he was a Saban recruit. That’s debatable. Simpson might not have followed the Heisman path in the latter half of the season, and there were certainly moments on Saturday night that felt like he was climbing a mountain just to complete a pass.

But in the clutch, Simpson was again at his absolute best

His 4th-and-1 scramble on a rollout that broke down kept that drive alive. The 4th-and-2 throw was like a warmup toss compared to the off-balanced touchdown he delivered earlier to get Alabama its first touchdown of the night.

Yeah, it makes sense why DeBoer has confidence in Simpson. If that type of pass rush can still yield that type of throw, you have to like your odds turning things over to Simpson.

If 4th-and-2 will live in Iron Bowl lore, the play that sealed it for Alabama on the other side of the ball might live in Iron Bowl infamy. At least it will for Auburn. On a potential game-tying drive, Week 1 scapegoat Bray Hubbard forced a fumble of the decorated Cam Coleman as Auburn was just outside the red zone. Fittingly, Deontae Lawson, who suffered a torn ACL in last year’s devastating, Playoff-derailing loss at Oklahoma, recovered it for the Tide.

What a difference a year makes.

Even if Alabama can’t beat Georgia again, it’ll have a legitimate argument to stay in the Playoff field after last year’s precedent benefitted SMU after it lost in the ACC Championship, but didn’t fall out of the field in favor of idle … Alabama. Ironic? You bet. Then again, Alabama would probably relish the opportunity to build off Saturday night’s thriller by getting in the automatic way by winning an SEC Championship and possibly getting a Round 1 bye.

But before Alabama turned the page to Atlanta, it earned the right to soak in what it did for the 3rd consecutive time at Jordan-Hare. It wasn’t Gravedigger, but 4th-and-2 was arguably as impactful of a moment of the post-Saban era.

“I’ve got a lotta confidence in our offense that we could make that play, and I’ve got a lotta confidence in our defense that we could get it back,” DeBoer said in the postgame interview with Holly Rowe. “We’ve been through this a lot this year. We talked about being built for it, being built for these moments. We found ways to get these wins at the ends of games over and over.”

As DeBoer answered questions with Rowe, a raspy Simpson joined him. They shared a smile and a hug. DeBoer was atypically emotional before he turned it over to his quarterback one more time.

“These guys are unbelievable,” DeBoer said. “Backs against the wall and they’ve been competing for a long time. These guys, they give me everything they’ve got every single day. It’s been a long road, but we get to continue on, and I can’t wait to go do more with them next weekend.”

The post Kalen DeBoer showed his championship-level guts with a 4th-and-2 decision for Iron Bowl lore appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Texas beat 3 top-10 teams in the regular season, which was something that nobody else in America has done this year. Not too shabby.

The Longhorns got off to a slow start, but accelerated in the second half in what turned out to be their best game of the season on Friday night in a 27-17 win vs. No. 3 Texas A&M. Texas finally got a 100-yard rusher, it harassed the normally mistake-free Marcel Reed and Arch Manning made plays on the move in the second half that probably made all the NFL Draft folks swoon.

But back to the stat. Like, the No. 1 stat that every Texas fan from coast-to-coast will be shouting at one another over the course of the next 9 days leading up to Selection Sunday. Texas did something that no team in the 2020s has done by beating 3 top-10 teams (AP Poll) in the regular season. Excluding conference championship games, that’s something that nobody has done since 2019 LSU. As in, the team who delivered arguably the most impressive season in college football history (not that Texas needed any reminders of that).

What Texas fans might need some reminders of, though, is that those 3 losses happened. Their 2025 résumé might’ve gotten a signature win, but it shouldn’t be enough to get to the Playoff.

Of course, Steve Sarkisian sang a different tune in the postgame interview.

“That team is undefeated, No. 3 in the country. A lot of the pundits out there think they’re the No. 1 team in the country. We just beat ’em by 10,” he said.

What type of statement did Texas make to the selection committee by handing A&M its first loss?

“If you really look at the body of work, and you look at the Southeastern Conference and what we have to go through every week, look at the nonconference schedule we played to go to Ohio State, Week 1 and we lose by 7 and we out-gained them by nearly 200 yards, we’ve got a really good football team,” Sarkisian said, “and it would be a disservice to our sport if this team’s not a Playoff team when we went and scheduled that nonconference game because if we’re a 10-2 team, it’s not a question … so is that what college football is about? Don’t play anybody and just have a good record? Or play the best and put the best teams in the Playoff, and we’re one of the best teams.”

OK, a lot to unpack there.

He’s right to point out that not all conferences are created equally, and that the SEC has the deepest group of teams. He’s also right that if Texas had just scheduled UMass instead of Ohio State, yes, there’s a good chance that Friday night’s second-half comeback would’ve put the Longhorns into the Playoff field. It’s worth noting that there are 7 Power Conference teams with 2 losses who are currently ahead of Texas, as well as 8 teams with 0-1 losses, which is why it feels unlikely that a jump into the field is imminent unless complete chaos unfolds.

But let’s back up a second.

Sarkisian is putting a ton on that Ohio State game, wherein his team was held without a point for the first 56:32. He also added “we out-gained them by nearly 200 yards” when Texas actually out-gained the Buckeyes by 133 yards, even though 98 of those yards came in the final 4 minutes when Ohio State was trying to preserve a 14-0 lead. I add that context because Sarkisian is trying to spin the narrative that Texas controlled the No. 1 team in the country, and while it was the Buckeyes’ closest game of the season, anybody who remembers watching that game back in August knows that wasn’t the case.

According to Sarkisian’s unbiased opinion, “it would be a disservice to the sport” if that was the thing that held Texas out of the Playoff. Dare I say, Texas has already been shown plenty of grace for that loss by the selection committee. It’s not just that Texas was the top 3-loss team at No. 16. It was that going into the Georgia game, the Longhorns were at No. 10 and very much still in the running if they had played down to the wire. But then they got blown out in Athens and fell outside of the field.

Sarkisian arguing that the Ohio State loss sends the wrong message ignores the point staring him in the face. If they had won that game, they would’ve already been in the field and likely in line to host a Playoff game again. Go ask Texas A&M about what it means to travel for a big-time road game in nonconference play and win it. It’s been everything for the Aggies to have that Notre Dame win because without it, they’d be getting compared to 2024 Indiana because of their extremely favorable conference schedule draw.

Also, it’s rich hearing Sarkisian focus on that Ohio State game while conveniently ignoring some other obvious things that held his team back from being Playoff-worthy.

Has he forgotten that Florida happened? Because if it didn’t happen, Texas would be in the Playoff. But it did. It very much did.

Yes, that atmosphere is remarkable. I was there. I can confirm that on that day, The Swamp was rocking.

Also of note, Florida is now 3-8. Texas trailed that entire game and got beat in every facet — it lost the yards battle 457-341 — against a team that didn’t sniff bowl contention. It would be a disservice to the sport if the selection committee gave Texas special treatment for that showing against a Florida team that went 1-5 with 4 double-digit losses and 1 head coach firing after that afternoon.

Ah, but the wins! Bring up the stat again!

OK, I will. Sarkisian’s preseason No. 1 team entered Friday night having allowed 31 points in 4 consecutive games, including a 37-point, 512-yard effort to 2-win Arkansas last week in Austin.

Oops. Was that not the stat?

Sure, Anthony Hill Jr. was out for that one. On Friday, it was all the more impressive that Texas bottled up A&M without him. It’s too bad for the Longhorns that, at several points with Hill on the field this season, Texas didn’t look close to one of the best teams in the sport. It’s not just that it took the 17 -point comeback at Mississippi State, who was trying to beat its first SEC foe in 2 years. It also was the Kentucky game, wherein the Longhorns again won in overtime vs. a 5-win team.

Then again, they were out-gained by more than 200 yards, so did that win really even matter?

After that game, Michael Taaffe insisted that reporters were being too negative about Texas after it was held to 179 yards against a lowly Kentucky team, and that 2024 Georgia had a similar showing in Lexington before winning the SEC Championship. We don’t need to revisit the “what’s wrong with Georgia” takes that everyone had after that one, but we can revisit the difference between those 2 teams. Unlike a Georgia team that was undefeated at the time of that 2024 game in September, that was a mid-October game wherein a 2-loss Texas still lacked urgency. That was the problem.

Sarkisian denied after the Georgia loss that this Texas team “underachieved,” even though it was 7-3 after earning the first preseason AP No. 1 ranking in program history. Sarkisian insisted those expectations were the doing of AP voters, and that he was proud of how his team handled adversity. He also admitted that at Texas, you’re held to a championship standard.

Texas has not played to a championship standard for the majority of this season. Longhorn fans know that deep down because they’ve watched this team fail to control opponents like the previous 2 did en route to Playoff semifinals trips. This year, that championship standard was there at key moments against Oklahoma, as well as the majority of that wild game against Vanderbilt. You can add Friday night to that group.

But if and when Texas doesn’t hear its name called among that Playoff field on Selection Sunday, it won’t be a disservice.

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It gave us a year in which 7 SEC fanbases felt they had a right to the Playoff heading into late November, we had 4 SEC head coaches fired, we had a Diego Pavia encore for the ages and we had whatever’s going down with Lane Kiffin.

It’s been glorious. I’m thankful for every bit of it. Few SEC teams have been boring.

Here’s 1 thing from every SEC team that I’m thankful for in 2025:

Alabama — This version of Ty Simpson

Without him? Alabama would be a disaster to watch on a weekly basis. For a team that cannot run the ball, Simpson has been among the most clutch players in the sport. He’s got 38 3rd-down conversions (No. 3 among Power Conference QBs) and 8 4th-down conversions (No. 4 among Power Conference QBs) via the pass. The relationship with Ryan Grubb has turned Alabama’s passing attack into an NFL operation in ways that it wasn’t last year. If the Tide reach the Playoff, it’ll have that to thank.

Arkansas – Weekly 1-score losses

So maybe it lost a little juice after the Texas game, wherein the Hogs lost by 15 points and ruined their insanely narrow scoring margin in a winless slate in SEC play (it was -25 before the Texas game). But as much as I feel for the Arkansas fans in my life who have been tortured, I’ve enjoyed that the worst team in the SEC has 6 losses by 1 score. Whether that’s a costly Taylen Green turnover, a coverage breakdown on 4th down or a fumble to blow a 17-point lead against Memphis, Arkansas has been a walking, talking car crash that I can’t look away from this year.

Auburn – The end of the Hugh Freeze era

Couldn’t watch it anymore. I was relieved that it didn’t get 3 full years because unlike Arkansas, who lost 1-score games in comical ways, we had to watch Freeze misevaluate quarterbacks and then throw them under the bus publicly. The end of the Freeze era also unlocked perhaps the beginning of the Deuce Knight era, as well as the acknowledge of Cam Coleman’s existence. Coleman has 20 targets in the first 2 games without Freeze, which is his best ever in a 2-game stretch. Freeze was so bad that he couldn’t even get anything resembling Jordan-Hare magic. We only saw the Tigers go 2-10 vs. Power Conference foes at home under Freeze. A new era on The Plains was needed.

Florida — That one afternoon I spent in The Swamp this year

To be clear, that wasn’t a troll. It was the Texas game. I was indeed thankful for it because when The Swamp is rocking, I’ll put it up there with any venue in the sport. Getting there this year was my first time in Gainesville on a fall Saturday since the 2018 LSU game, wherein the pick-6 of Joe Burrow led to the single loudest roar that these ears have ever heard. The takeaway from this is that if I had gone to more games at Florida, the Gators wouldn’t be moving on to their fifth coach of the post-Urban Meyer era.

Georgia — The Gunner Stockton-Mike Bobo connection

Hand up. I called for Bobo’s job last year. I argued that Kirby Smart was making a horrendously misguided decision to retain his OC, especially knowing that he’d have a first-time starting quarterback. Turns out, Smart knew what he was talking about and I didn’t. Imagine that? Stockton has been masterful in Bobo’s offense, and he’s been at his best when the competition has been cranked up. Stockton has a 180.4 QB rating vs. teams that are currently in the AP Top 25. The next-closest FBS quarterback with 2 such games is Simpson at 152.4. Stockton can absolutely be Stetson Bennett V (had to) and lead Georgia to a national championship.

Kentucky — Cutter Boley’s emergence means Kentucky won’t have to spend another $1.2 million on the next Zach Calzada

Need I say more?

LSU — Blake Baker is putting up 30 a game for the Wizards

By “Wizards,” I just meant an irrelevant NBA team. You get it. Baker’s defense is legit. It’s worth watching. Even without Whit Weeks, guys like Mansoor Delane, AJ Haulcy and DJ Pickett have been even better than advertised, and we’ve even gotten some big-time moments from Harold Perkins Jr. again. If you just watched LSU’s defense and pretended that the offense didn’t exist, you’d be having a much better time with the 2025 version of the Bayou Bengals.

Mississippi State — Brenen Thompson’s wheels

Last year, it felt like Mississippi State never really got to run the Jeff Lebby offense because Blake Shapen got hurt so early in the season. This year, when Shapen can actually sit back and get time to throw, he’s often found a streaking Thompson, who has been a godsend since coming over from Oklahoma. He’s quietly No. 2 in the SEC with 868 receiving yards, and he’s No. 3 with 18.5 yards per catch. Thompson gave us what was easily the best moment of the post-Mike Leach era with a game-winning touchdown against defending Big 12 champion Arizona State.

More of that is needed in Starkville.

Mizzou — Ahmad Hardy and his refusal to be tackled

Hardy established himself as a Doak Walker Award finalist even though, as some might forget, he didn’t even get a carry on Mizzou‘s first 2 series of the season. At the same time, he was a decorated transfer after a 1,300-yard true freshman season at Louisiana-Monroe. He’s since surpassed that with a Power Conference-best 1,403 rushing yards, 989 of which have come after first contact. That’s best in the FBS, and if you just made “Ahmad Hardy after contact” his own person, it would rank No. 4 in the SEC in rushing. For a team that was tasked with starting its 3rd-string quarterback multiple times, Hardy has kept Mizzou worthy of YouTube TV multi-view real estate.

Oklahoma — The best Brent Venables defense since 2018 Clemson

Don’t get it twisted. I’m also thankful that the packaged deal of Ben Arbuckle and John Mateer has made it so that Oklahoma’s offense can at least occasionally hit a chunk play and do things that last year’s unit couldn’t, especially with Isaiah Sategna’s ability to jet. But Venables has a special defense. It just needed a little help. When healthy, R Mason Thomas has played like a Round 1 guy while Taylor Wein’s emergence has been monumental as of late, and the Bowen brothers (Peyton and Eli) have turned this secondary into a feared unit. The Sooners might be more comfortable playing in slogs than most — they have 4 wins without exceeding 24 points — but if that means emerging from that gauntlet of a schedule with a Playoff berth, so be it.

Ole Miss — We got the loudest quiet Lane Kiffin season possible

It felt like it would be a post-hype year for Kiffin. A year after he failed to make the Playoff with arguably the most talented roster in program history, there was an expectation that frisky Playoff buzz would be the best-case scenario for a team that ranked last in the SEC in percentage of returning production. Instead, Kiffin has the most buzz over his potential departure since the Tennessee-to-USC saga, and it’s all going down while Ole Miss is on the brink of its first Playoff berth in program history. It’s both loud and quiet because is anybody actually talking about Ole Miss as a title contender? Nope. That’s not the case in the SEC or in the Playoff. But unlike last year — or really any other year in the Playoff era — both are still on the table heading into the Egg Bowl. Of course it is.

South Carolina — LaNorris Sellers is still in 1 piece … I think?

No Power Conference quarterback has taken as many sacks as Sellers (37), and even more alarming, he’s been sacked 20 times without even blitzing. It’s been that kind of year for the decorated South Carolina signal caller. The Mike Shula offensive coordinator experiment was brief and disastrous. The portal help at the skill positions hasn’t been there, and as a result, Sellers has regressed. At the very least, we’ve at least seen flashes of the guy who emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in the sport. But simply surviving this season with 42.4% pressure rate (the highest in the SEC) is a minor miracle.

Tennessee — This offense could’ve been a disaster, and it’s instead elite

Heading into the final Saturday of the season, Tennessee had the No. 4 scoring offense in America. While it had some non-offensive scores inflate that number a touch, think about this. The Vols lost their top 3 receivers, their SEC Offensive Player of the Year at running back, they had 4 new starters on the offensive line and then they were forced to make a post-spring QB change after Nico Iamaleava’s departure. That’s unbelievable turnover that Josh Heupel has made a distant memory. Are the Vols as prolific as the 2022 group? No, but with this porous defense, it needed to be close to that or else this easily could’ve been a 5-6 win season. Don’t take that for granted.

Texas — We’re back to realistic Arch Manning expectations

No longer will we watch Manning and assume that we’re about to embark on a religious experience. Instead, after a year of growing pains and positive moments, we can view him through the proper lens. Manning is a talented, but still inexperienced quarterback. He’s still got accuracy and timing issues. These surroundings didn’t help him as much as some thought they would, and now 2026 can be the real barometer for his future. It was never realistic to think it was going to set college football ablaze, bolt for the NFL after 1 season as a starter and become the next Hall of Fame Manning. Perhaps that’ll be exactly what he needs to become the best version of himself in 2026.

Texas A&M — The Aggies didn’t flinch at $76 million

If they did flinch at that unprecedented buyout, Jimbo Fisher would still be coaching A&M and Mike Elko wouldn’t be rewriting the record books in Year 2 in College Station. Fortunately for Texas A&M, Elko is doing things that haven’t been done in decades. He’s on the brink of A&M’s first Playoff berth and if he can win at Texas, he’ll have the Aggies in their first conference championship game in the 21st century. Yes, the schedule gods favored the Aggies, but that Notre Dame win in South Bend still happened. This team has 3 true road wins vs. Power Conference bowl teams, and it has perhaps the most versatile team in the SEC. Elko deserves legitimate National Coach of the Year consideration.

Vanderbilt — Diego Pavia found that JUCO loophole to become a college football legend

Duh. No disrespect to Clark Lea or his remarkable coaching staff, but Pavia is the straw that stirs the drink. By him suing the NCAA and getting another year of eligibility, we got to see the best version of Pavia on display. He’s been must-see TV in ways that he wasn’t throughout his 2024 breakout season in Nashville. The entire playbook has been opened up and a healthier Pavia has been slinging it all over the yard. Will he become the first Vanderbilt player to ever get a Heisman Trophy invite? It’s possible. Either way, leading the program to its best regular season since the Woodrow Wilson administration (1915) is worth celebrating, regardless of whether it leads to a Playoff berth. Pavia’s encore has somehow surpassed the original.

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It’s not a Playoff berth that’s on the line. At 11-0, that’s already in the bag for the first time in program history. That’s worth celebrating.

The Aggies haven’t played in a conference title game since 1998. Beating Texas in Austin on Friday night — or losing but also getting losses from both Alabama and Ole Miss — would end that drought. That’d be worth celebrating, too.

But if A&M improves to 12-0, I don’t care what happens in the SEC Championship. That would be a résumé worthy of a Playoff bye.

What about the fact that A&M got unbelievable schedule luck in conference play? Sure.

In case you haven’t heard, A&M’s first 7 conference games currently rank in the bottom 8 of the SEC standings. There’s no denying that while teams like Alabama and Oklahoma have had tougher paths in SEC play, A&M got some fortunate breaks.

Of course, the crowd who likes to harp on that seems to forget that A&M won at Notre Dame. Irish fans will say that a botched extra point hold and a missed holding call proved to be the difference in that game. Did A&M still go on the road and take advantage of those breaks in a down-to-the-wire game? Absolutely.

This would be an entirely different conversation if A&M had scheduled Indiana State instead of Notre Dame. That’s why the argument that Texas should’ve scheduled Kent State instead of Ohio State falls on deaf ears. Winning games helps you, and losing games hurts you. Duh.

How has that Notre Dame win aged? Like Tim McGraw and Faith Hill — flawlessly. It’s even more impressive to think that on extra rest, Jeremiyah Love was held to less than 100 rushing yards (he did have 53 receiving yards and an insane 1-handed touchdown grab). Why bring that up? Well, if the selection committee is out here talking about Alabama’s rushing yards against South Carolina, it feels perfectly relevant to reference holding a potential Heisman Trophy winner under the century mark.

But again, this is about more than that.

This is about potentially getting to 12-0 with road wins at Playoff-bound Notre Dame and at top-15 Texas

Those 2 true road wins would be more impressive than Ohio State’s 2 best (at Washington and potentially at Michigan), and they’d be at least on par with Indiana’s (at Oregon and at Iowa), if not better.

But those 2 teams, if they’re also 12-0, should also be locks for a Playoff bye, regardless of what happens against one another in the Big Ten Championship. For this conversation, A&M’s pre-conference championship résumé should be compared to other teams who could covet that Playoff bye. One-loss teams like Georgia and Texas Tech will want that consideration for a bye. Both teams have flexed their muscles at the right time, and neither have what would be considered a “bad” loss. UGA losing to top-10 Alabama was forgivable, as was Tech being without QB1 Behren Morton when it dropped a winnable game to 8-win Arizona State.

Clearly, the selection committee views those 3 teams in a similar light, which is why they’re ranked 3-5 heading into Rivalry Week. If all 3 teams win, one would expect that’ll still be the case before conference championship weekend. For the sake of this argument, let’s assume that on Selection Sunday, Georgia would be idle during conference championship week at 11-1, while Texas Tech would be 12-1 having won its rematch with BYU in the Big 12 Championship and A&M would be 12-1 having lost the SEC Championship to Alabama.

(I picked Alabama because if chalk plays out with an Iron Bowl win, it’ll go to Atlanta to face A&M.)

Here’s how that should look in the top 6 on Selection Sunday if that scenario played out:

• 1. Big Ten Championship winner
• 2. Big Ten Championship loser
• 3. SEC Champion Alabama
• 4. SEC Championship loser Texas A&M
• 5. Texas Tech
• 6. Georgia

Yes, my guess is that Texas Tech would leapfrog Georgia, who would still have the benefit of a home Playoff game as a 6-seed. That might upset Georgia fans, who would argue that beating Georgia Tech would add another quality win to that résumé, which could include potentially 4 teams in the final Playoff Poll (Ole Miss, at Tennessee, Texas and Georgia Tech). Texas Tech would only have 3, but all 3 of those wins (2 vs. BYU, 1 vs. Utah) could be blowouts against teams in the top 12 of the CFP heading into conference championship weekend. There’s precedent for rewarding a conference title winner in those side-by-sides.

But back to A&M. Why would it make sense for Georgia to benefit from A&M earning the right to play for an SEC Championship? Yeah, UGA had a tougher path than A&M in conference play. Was it that much tougher, though? the Dawgs only had 2 true road games after the Week 3 overtime win at Tennessee, and they were both against teams who are 5-6 entering Rivalry Week. Both Georgia and A&M would each have 4 wins vs. Power Conference bowl teams, but all of A&M’s would have come in true road games (at Notre Dame, at Mizzou, at LSU, at Texas).

Entering Rivalry Week, A&M’s average scoring margin in SEC play is +13.4 and Georgia’s is +11. Against Power Conference competition, A&M still has the edge at +11.9 compared to +11, pending this weekend’s results.

(Also, for those wondering about why an SEC Champion Alabama would leapfrog UGA in this scenario, note that the Dawgs would again be subjected to the side-by-side against the Tide, who came into Athens and won. Hence, why the 2-loss Tide would be worthy of a Round 1 bye, much like 2-loss Georgia was when it won the SEC Championship last year.)

How would 12-1 SEC Championship loser A&M fend off 12-1 Big 12 Championship winner Texas Tech, you ask?

Simple. The former would be getting some résumé separation by winning at Texas while Tech wins as a 3-touchdown favorite at 4-7 West Virginia. Even if Texas Tech blows out BYU again in the Big 12 Championship, what’s that showing the selection committee that it doesn’t already know? It’d be an impressive win, but would it make up the ground needed if A&M wins in Austin to create more of a gap between 3-5? It shouldn’t.

These are fun conversations to have for A&M because in every way, they’re unprecedented for the program in the 21st century. The Aggies can lose on Friday night and still have total control of their own path to a national championship as the calendar turns to December.

Of course, nobody in College Station wants to acknowledge that reality. Shoot, it took 1,000 words into this column to acknowledge the possibility that A&M is anything but 12-0 and Atlanta-bound. It’s possible that this entire conversation will be for naught by the end of Black Friday, and A&M will have to accept that it’s likely heading toward a home Playoff game instead of a Round 1 bye.

But if chalk plays out for A&M as a 2.5-point favorite at Texas (via BetMGM), the conversations about Playoff seeding will be hotly debated from coast to coast. Some will continue to poke holes in the Aggies’ regular-season résumé by only acknowledging the conference scheduling breaks they caught while failing to acknowledge that the road résumé will stack up with anybody’s.

Either way, history awaits.

The post If A&M beats Texas in Austin, the Aggies deserve a Playoff bye, regardless of the SEC Championship result appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Without any top-10 teams going down in a chalky Week 13, there weren’t expected to be major shakeups near the top of the rankings. That proved to be true, outside of Ole Miss dropping to No. 7 and Oregon moving up to No. 6 after a win against USC.

Here were the SEC teams in the field:

• 3. Texas A&M
• 4. Georgia
• 7. Ole Miss
• 8. Oklahoma
• 10. Alabama
• 14. Vanderbilt
• 16. Texas
• 19. Tennessee

These were the top takeaways from Tuesday night’s (delayed) reveal:

No. 14 Vandy and No. 16 Texas are in need of an apocalypse to make the field

Does that sound grim? It’s reality. That’s a tougher reality to accept for a Vanderbilt team who could go into No. 19 Tennessee, win, and still be well on the outside looking in at 10-2. The Commodores haven’t had their wins age as well as they could’ve hoped. Beating 7-4 teams like Mizzou and LSU isn’t being valued by the selection committee, and whooping a 5-win Kentucky squad kept the Dores in the same exact No. 14 spot.

At this point, it’s a forgone conclusion that the No. 10 seed (currently Alabama) will be the last team in the field once the ACC champ and Group of 5 champ are crowned. With that in mind, look at the teams around Vandy and Texas with their respective matchups this weekend (spreads via BetMGM):

• No. 7 Ole Miss: 7.5-point favorite at Mississippi State
• No. 8 Oklahoma: 10-point favorite vs. LSU
• No. 9 Notre Dame: 32.5-point favorite at Stanford
• No. 10 Alabama: 5.5-point favorite at Auburn
• No. 11 BYU: 17.5-point favorite vs. UCF
• No. 12 Miami (FL): 6.5-point favorite at No. 22 Pitt
• No. 13 Utah: 12.5-point favorite at Kansas

Think of how difficult it would be for Vandy to jump to No. 10, knowing that 4 of those teams 10-13 are favored, and 2 of them are double-digit favorites. On top of that, the last team in, Alabama, has the head-to-head vs. Vandy, which means the Dores likely aren’t doing anything that can best the 10-2 Tide.

What if Texas beats 11-0 Texas A&M by 30, you ask? Well, it’ll still have 3 losses in a field that’s currently got 7 2-loss teams that are currently ranked higher.

At this point, it might take 2 apocalypses for Vandy and Texas to make the field.

Can the selection committee just admit it messed up that first Miami ranking? What are we doing here?

Have you ever been in a situation in which someone got way too angry at someone and everyone in the room immediately realized it was a massive overreaction? That’s what it feels like the selection committee did with Miami (FL) in that first Playoff ranking. By starting the Canes at No. 18 and 8 spots behind fellow 2-loss Notre Dame, who lost to Miami in the season opener, the selection committee had a massive overreaction.

We know that to be true because each week, the selection committee has moved Miami up 1-3 spots. That was for beating the likes of Syracuse (3-8), NC State (6-5) and Virginia Tech (3-8). It wasn’t exactly a gauntlet that got the Canes back up to No. 12.

The irony is that the selection committee claimed that Miami and Notre Dame didn’t have the head-to-head valued because their résumés — with the same amount of losses — were too far apart. Now, with Miami just 3 spots behind Notre Dame for beating nobody of true relevance, the selection committee might actually have to look at the game that the 2 teams played against one another. Imagine that.

The most maddening part of the selection show was listening to the ESPN analysts talk about their mutual opponents and how that’ll be big for the selection committee. You know what else should be big? A mutual opponent of each other … in a real game. Instead of just casually sliding Miami back up the rankings, the selection committee should’ve just admitted that it overreacted and apologized.

Wishful thinking.

Should Ole Miss be worried?

Ask that question in Oxford these days and 99.9% of the responses would be related to Lane Kiffin. Here, we’re talking Playoff.

After dropping Ole Miss to No. 7 after Oregon beat USC, it’s a question I find myself asking after thinking that a bid was safe. Losing to Mississippi State as a 7.5-point favorite would drop Kiffin’s squad to 10-2, which in theory, should be safe knowing that it has the Oklahoma win. If OU is in at 10-2, one would think that Ole Miss has a buffer of sorts.

But I just got through saying that the head-to-head with Miami and Notre Dame didn’t seem to matter. Are we sure that the selection committee, who has Ole Miss and Oklahoma separated by just 1 spot now, would default to that? I’m not. Ole Miss has just 2 wins vs. Power Conference bowl teams. Go figure that the Tulane win has aged better than the LSU win. And for what it’s worth, FanDuel still has Ole Miss at -500 to make the Playoff. Make of that what you will.

Kiffin insists that his team won’t be distracted. If his team somehow lost in Starkville and missed out of a Playoff bid, it would sting even worse than last year’s exclusion.

We’re setting up for a whole lot of 10-win teams who’ll miss the Playoff

Going into the 12-team Playoff era, the thinking was that getting to 10 wins would guarantee a bid. Last year, we watched Miami and BYU miss the field with 10-2 records.

Heading into the final weekend of the regular season, it’s not crazy to think that we could see all these teams get to 10 wins and get left out of the Playoff:

• 10-3 BYU (would include Big 12 Championship loss)
• 10-2 Miami
• 10-2 Utah
• 10-2 Vandy
• 10-2 Virginia

And that’s assuming teams like Michigan (9-2) and Georgia Tech (9-2) don’t take down top-4 teams on Saturday. We shouldn’t rule that out, either.

That’s a wild thought on a variety of levels. A year removed from hearing all the crying from 9-3 SEC teams like Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina, those 9-3 marks aren’t even sniffing those arguments this year. It’s a week-to-week, year-to-year sport.

Somewhere, the college football purists are smiling wide knowing this 12-team Playoff is looking much closer to a double-elimination regular season than originally expected.

The post Takeaways from the fourth Playoff Poll of 2025 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Nobody in the top 14 of the Playoff rankings lost. Chaos, there was not. We had Oregon and Oklahoma both win ranked matchups while BYU fended off Cincinnati and Utah pulled out a wild one against Kansas State. Seemingly everything that could’ve caused a significant shakeup didn’t happen.

Consider that my way of saying don’t expect a whole lot of change with Tuesday night’s Playoff Poll.

Here’s a prediction at what that’ll look like:

12. Utah

The selection committee loves Utah. Period. It doesn’t seem to matter that Utah has just 2 wins vs. Power Conference teams with winning records and 0 wins vs. the current AP Top 25. The 31-point win vs. Cincinnati hasn’t aged as well as the Utes could’ve hoped for, but being in the top 12 going into a regular-season finale against 5-6 Kansas isn’t a bad place to be. Chaos is the only thing that’ll get Utah into the field (the highest-ranked Group of 5 champ and ACC champ will likely be inserted into the top 12).

11. BYU

Barring a stunning home loss to UCF as a 3-score favorite (via BetMGM), BYU will be in an interesting spot heading into conference championship week. It could likely need to beat Texas Tech to make the field. Alternatively, 2-loss teams like Alabama, Notre Dame or Oklahoma could suffer upset losses and open up another scenario. A 1-loss BYU could be at No. 9-10 going into conference championship weekend and be in the position that SMU was in last year. That precedent would be the best-case scenario for BYU’s rooting interest during Rivalry Week.

10. Alabama

It’s wild to think of the position that Alabama finds itself in heading into Rivalry Week. It became the first team in SEC history to beat 4 consecutive AP Top 25 teams without any rest, yet it’s ranked behind multiple fellow 2-loss teams. The selection committee’s post-Week 12 ranking of the Tide behind Notre Dame has now set the stage for Alabama to be in a win-and-in scenario for the Iron Bowl. Why? By winning that game, it would lead the same SMU precedent that played out last year. Alabama would earn an SEC Championship berth and not be knocked out of the field with a loss. Alabama might be the only team left who can both earn a first-round bye and miss the field altogether. Get your popcorn ready.

9. Notre Dame

A Stanford win is the only thing separating the Irish from the Playoff. That résumé now includes wins against multiple teams in the current AP Top 25. The selection committee will appreciate the fact that it didn’t have to watch the Irish’s ball control after it led Syracuse 21-0 before the offense took a snap. The decisive victories have helped the Irish. The only thing that can apparently hurt the Irish is if Miami (FL) is now inching closer to a side-by-side comp against the Notre Dame team it beat back in Week 1. But at this point, a Miami team that’ll also be idle during conference championship weekend has likely lost all hope that it’ll get bumped past the Irish.

8. Oklahoma

Three weeks, 3 wins vs. AP Top 25 teams. That’s 5 wins vs. teams who were in the AP Top 25 at the time of the matchup, and 3 of those teams (Michigan, Alabama and Tennessee) are still ranked. Not too shabby. OU is the top 2-loss team as a result of that, which included handing Alabama its first home loss vs. SEC competition since 2019. Is the offense flawed? Sure. OU isn’t controlling games like fellow 2-loss Notre Dame, though schedule has certainly played a part in that. But the Sooners are a win vs. an interim LSU coach away from reaching the Playoff for the first time in 6 years, and likely earning a home game.

7. Ole Miss

Lost in the shuffle of this Lane Kiffin drama is what the Ole Miss Playoff picture would look like if disaster struck in the Egg Bowl with a loss. It’s not just about whether Kiffin’s status as the head coach would impact the postseason outlook in the eyes of the selection committee. It’s whether the résumé would hold up with a loss. Would the Oklahoma win in Norman give Ole Miss a floor? As it stands, FanDuel has the Playoff odds at -470. For what it’s worth, Ole Miss’s odds to win on Friday at Mississippi State are -275, which means there’s still a greater chance that Ole Miss makes the Playoff than losing this game. Of all the things that can happen over the next week for Ole Miss, a home Playoff game still seems to be the most likely outcome.

6. Oregon

Beating USC could move Oregon up a spot ahead of Ole Miss. If the selection committee runs it back with the same exact top 12, you know what people will say. Did they even watch any games this weekend? Of course, nobody in the top 12 lost. But this is an easy opportunity for the selection committee to reward a top-15 win and make it seem like these résumés are more fluid than they really are. Oregon benefits from that and moves closer to a home Playoff game.

5. Texas Tech

You can’t argue that Texas Tech’s spot in the field is up for grabs. Even losing at West Virginia as a 23.5-point favorite likely wouldn’t doom the Red Raiders’ Playoff chances. Why? It’s all about staying in the top 10, not the top 12. I’d argue that Vanderbilt dominating at Tennessee and/or Miami doing so at Pitt are the only teams who could legitimately threaten to get into the top 10 and jump Tech. Even if that chaos scenario did happen, let’s also not forget that Joey McGuire’s squad can lose and still get into the Big 12 Championship with either an Arizona State loss or a BYU loss and a Utah win. More likely than missing the field is Texas Tech locking in a Round 1 bye.

4. Georgia

It’s not just that Georgia has flexed its muscles at the right time. It’s that UGA has 3 wins vs. teams that’ll be in the Playoff Poll (Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas). Averaging 40.7 points in those 3 games helped UGA become the top 1-loss team. A spot in the field is already a lock. You can’t even get odds on the Dawgs to make the field because at worst, Georgia is 10-2 heading into Selection Sunday. Well, I suppose 10-3 is still possible, but we’ve already outlined why a team isn’t getting bumped out of the field for a conference title loss. UGA is in, and if all breaks right, it’ll be in position to earn a Round 1 bye without having to play in the SEC Championship.

3. Texas A&M

The Aggies survived the potential of Georgia leapfrogging them after the Texas win. The question now is if Texas A&M can do to Texas what Georgia did. Granted, the Aggies are traveling to Austin, where they can potentially clinch their first conference title game appearance in the 21st century. It’s somewhat irrelevant now that schedule luck has favored A&M in conference play. With nothing but ranked opponents left, A&M’s 2025 story will be defined by how it stacks up against elite foes.

2. Indiana

The idle Hoosiers got a slight résumé bump with Oregon taking care of USC, and now, they can clinch a trip to the Big Ten Championship with a win on Saturday against lowly Purdue. If that happens, the No. 1 overall seed figures to be at stake in Indianapolis. What a time to be alive for a program that hasn’t won a postseason game of any kind since 1991.

1. Ohio State

The only thing that’s going to prevent Ohio State from being an overwhelming favorite going into the Playoff is if it loses 1 of these next 2 games before Selection Sunday. Then again, we saw the Buckeyes lose at home to Michigan last year and what did that really prove? That the Wolverines still have their number? Perhaps that’s not what a college football purist wants to hear as the preamble for a heated rivalry game, but as it relates to the Playoff, it’s about the only bit of intrigue left for an Ohio State team who hasn’t even had a single-digit 4th quarter lead since September.

The post Predicting the top 12 of the fourth Playoff Poll of 2025 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

The guys closed with the CFP Top 12 prediction and some Lane Kiffin thoughts.

Watch the full episode here:

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The post SDS Podcast: Diego Pavia to NY? Brent Venables wins the Lincoln Riley breakup & the Lane Kiffin irony appeared first on Saturday Down South.

In the SEC, Rivalry Week is loaded with Playoff implications. Besides just locking in bids, seeding is at stake.

And oh, by the way, so are SEC Championship berths. Yes, those still matter in the 12-team Playoff era. Go ask Texas A&M what it would mean to play in a conference championship for the first time in the 21st century. Shoot, go ask Kalen DeBoer what it would mean to lead Alabama to a title in the league that many said would chew him up and spit him out.

Just in case you needed a reminder of what that race looks like, here’s what the SEC Championship race comes down to:

• Alabama: Win and in
• Texas A&M: Win and in OR Alabama loss + Ole Miss loss
• Georgia: Alabama loss OR Texas A&M loss
• Ole Miss: Win and Alabama loss + Texas A&M loss

This is all pretty straightforward if Alabama and Texas A&M win this weekend. Will it be that simple?

Let’s dig into some early SEC thoughts on each Rivalry Week matchup:

No. 6 Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State — Lane Kiffin has earned whatever is coming his way

Take that however you will. I take it as if he loses this game, he’ll have deserved the right to be the butt of every joke on Friday, which is when the Egg Bowl is inexplicably kicking off (put that sucker on Thanksgiving like the good Lord intended). You can’t have your family flying around to schools in your conference to be recruited and then lay an egg (pun intended) against 5-win Mississippi State. Not with your Playoff-bound squad. But if he wins and this decision looms 24 hours after the Egg Bowl, Kiffin will deserve this prime opportunity. Maybe that’s still at Ole Miss, or perhaps that’s at a historically premier job in the SEC like Florida or LSU. He’s spent the last 12 years rebuilding his reputation after getting left on the tarmac with USC. Clearly, Kiffin deserves to be coveted. He also deserves to be scrutinized for this very LeBron James-like way that he’s gone about this entire process, which will seemingly reach its conclusion on Saturday.

No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 23 Georgia Tech (in Mercedes-Benz Stadium) — Brent Key has turned these matchups into fist fights

And that’s a big reason why Key could be coveted by a place like Florida as a Kiffin consolation prize. The consolation prize for Georgia if it wins on Saturday but misses out on an SEC Championship is obvious. It’ll be in position to potentially earn a Playoff bye while avoiding another week to risk injuries. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, lost control of its ACC Championship path with the home loss to Pitt, which means it’ll need chaos to get there and compete for a Playoff berth. That’s not what anyone wants to discuss for a rivalry game, though. Nobody else wants to hear a rivalry game is played at a neutral site, either. But this game being at Mercedes-Benz Stadium — a move that was made entirely for money in the new era of the sport — will feel weird. The only thing that would be weird is if Key’s squad looked lifeless. Even with the most lopsided SEC spread of the weekend at Georgia -13 (via BetMGM), this is still Haynes King. As in, the guy who pushed UGA to a billion overtimes last year and who lost a 1-score game in 2023. Expect a dog fight, regardless of what the stakes are for Clean Old-Fashioned Hate.

No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 16 Texas — Arch Manning can get a whole lot of hype back if he out-plays Marcel Reed

Talk about irony. Go tell someone in August that, by the time this matchup rolled around, it would be A&M who has the Playoff-bound squad with the Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback. You might’ve believed that Manning’s buzz would have worn off, but at the very least, one likely would’ve assumed the preseason No. 1 team in America would have a favorable Playoff path with a win against A&M. It doesn’t appear that’s the case, nor does it appear that Manning will earn any of the Heisman love that he entered the season with. But after Manning has been (mostly) good down the stretch, he’s got a chance to take on a talented defense and build the hype back up for 2026. If Manning stares down that Mike Elko defense and delivers big-time plays to hand A&M its first loss, you can set your watch to all the juice that’ll return for his 2026 outlook, assuming that he’s back in Austin.

Kentucky vs. Louisville — Is this the last game of the Mark Stoops era?

I’ve asked that question a lot this year. I’m not alone. I’m sure even Kentucky AD Mitch Barnhart has asked himself that question amid a strange season in the Bluegrass State, which will now conclude with these rivals meeting in a building where Stoops hasn’t lost since 2014. That was his first trip to Louisville. Is this his final one? In theory, Barnhart could wait to see how Saturday plays out. Kentucky is competing for a bowl berth, and winning against a Louisville team that spent a good chunk of the season ranked would give the Cats victories in 4 of the final 5 regular-season games. In reality, should a $37 million buyout for the longest-tenured coach in the SEC come down to 60 minutes against a 7-4 Louisville squad? Probably not. Either way, that hay should already be in the barn. If it’s not, that says more about the decision makers than Stoops.

Clemson vs. South Carolina — How many tackles will LaNorris Sellers avoid this time?

One of my favorite stats of the entire 2024 season was this:

Insane. It felt like more, honestly. Sellers has had to do even more of that this year, albeit without the Playoff-consideration type season for South Carolina. Sellers has had at least 40 rushing yards after contact in 6 of the last 7 games. Clemson has been better with missed tackles — it had 9.6 per game last year and 7 this year — and it is up to No. 10 in FBS in opposing 3rd-down conversion rate. Among the quarterbacks that Clemson faced this season, the aforementioned King might’ve been the closest comp to Sellers, and he had 103 rushing yards in a Georgia Tech victory. It’s the type of matchup that Sellers could leave it all on the field knowing that South Carolina isn’t going to a bowl game. Whether he returns to Columbia in 2026 remains to be seen, but if he breaks a billion tackles in another win against Clemson, it would be quite the feather in his cap.

LSU vs. No. 8 Oklahoma — There’s a comforting thought for Oklahoma fans

It’s not just simply “LSU’s offense hasn’t scored more than 25 points vs. FBS competition this year.” It’s that since 1998, Oklahoma is 47-3 in November home games. That’s the best mark in FBS in that stretch (H/T Mike Houck). Sure, results that happened in the pre-Bob Stoops era won’t have any bearing on what happens on Saturday in a Playoff-or-bust game against the reeling Tigers, but it’s a reminder that location matters. LSU already had its Senior Night, and it’s not a bowl-or-bust game for the visiting Tigers, either. Could LSU relish playing the role of spoiler? Definitely. If Blake Baker’s defense shows up and plays with its hair on fire against an Oklahoma offense that’s been a bit of a slog for most of the season, yeah, this could be a 60-minute battle. But an LSU offense that put up a measly 13 points at home vs. Western Kentucky is facing a Brent Venables defense that’s clicking on all cylinders. Couple that with that November home record and Oklahoma fans should rest relatively easy this week knowing that this is a double-digit spread for a reason.

No. 12 Vanderbilt vs. No. 18 Tennessee — How many times has Diego Pavia played like a guy in a high-pressure situation?

One. At Alabama. Other than that, I’d argue that Pavia has never looked like a guy who felt the weight of some lofty expectations. And even then, you could argue that him turning the ball over in atypical fashion was more about facing a top-10 team in a hostile road venue than him self-combusting. Keep that in mind ahead of Saturday’s trip to Knoxville, where Pavia will face a Tennessee team that would love to play spoiler against the guy who said that Vandy would “run the state.” He’s got a chance to live up to those words and perhaps sneak Vandy into the Playoff if he can take care of business. Of course, if Pavia leads a blowout effort on Rocky Top, he might just punch his ticket to New York. Will he look like someone who is second guessing himself? Or will Pavia play like a guy with nothing to lose? The latter seems far more likely. The better question will be if it’s good enough to keep pace with a Tennessee offense that’s No. 4 in FBS in scoring.

Mizzou vs. Arkansas — Let me take this time to present a wild stat

Last year, Mizzou‘s scoring margin in SEC play was -29. As you recall, that was for a team that ultimately won 10 games. This year, Arkansas‘s scoring margin in SEC play is currently -40. As you recall, that’s for a team that ultimately won 2 games, neither of which happened vs. Power Conference competition. Up until the 15-point loss at Texas on Saturday, there was a chance that Arkansas could finish winless in SEC play but finish with a better scoring margin in conference play than 2024 Mizzou. Wild? Definitely. Just for a little perspective, if you find all the SEC teams who went winless in conference play since Mizzou and A&M joined the conference in 2012, the best scoring margin in SEC play was 2024 Mississippi State at -142. Unless Arkansas loses by 103 points in this matchup on Saturday — a 2.5-point spread suggests that’s highly unlikely (via FanDuel) — it will have what’s easily the best scoring margin in SEC play for a team who went winless vs. the conference (in the 14-16 team era of the SEC). Alternatively, Arkansas will win and spoil that dubious distinction.

Florida State vs. Florida — The timing of Mike Norvell’s vote of confidence is comical

The announcement that Norvell is staying for 2026 came after yet another inexplicable showing in ACC play dropped the Seminoles to 5-6. Saturday’s trip to Florida is indeed a bowl-or-bust matchup for FSU, but it’s comical to think that decision makers didn’t want to entertain the possibility of losing this game, missing a bowl and having to explain why they’re avoiding firing Norvell and his $58 million buyout. Now, FSU can lose this game and still know that it’s in college football hell. Alternatively, FSU can beat a Florida team that appears to be on to 2026, and it will change … nothing. If Gus Malzahn can’t lead FSU’s offense to 230 rushing yards against a Florida defense that’s allowed that the last 3 games, he should hand in his resignation letter and get off the sinking ship in Tallahassee. Either way, FSU could continue shuffling chairs on The Titanic. I mean, the Norvell tenure.

No. 10 Alabama vs. Auburn — What a perfect barometer for the future of the Kalen DeBoer era

You mean to tell me that Alabama is fighting for its Playoff life against an interim Auburn coach in the Iron Bowl at Jordan-Hare Stadium? That’s the good stuff. It’s also the stuff that’ll let us know whether DeBoer is built to be the long-term guy in Tuscaloosa. A loss wouldn’t necessarily make Alabama Greg Byrne fork over a $60.8 million buyout to fire a coach who would be 18-7 at the end of his second regular season. It would, however, make even the biggest DeBoer believers (myself included), question if he’s got the long-term chops for the weekly expectations that come with that job. He had a historic turnaround after Florida State by becoming the first SEC coach ever to win 4 consecutive games vs. AP Top 25 teams without any rest, but if that’s followed by losses in the final 2 SEC games to miss the Playoff, that’s all for naught. Nobody in America — not even Ryan Day at Michigan — will have more pressure on Saturday than DeBoer.

The post Early thoughts on each SEC game in Rivalry Week of 2025 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Everything about what Florida put forth on Saturday night in its first home loss against Tennessee in 22 years should’ve given the non-orange audience a collective “ick.” Well, let’s leave Jadan Baugh out of that conversation. The Gators running back might be the only thing that wasn’t worth turning away from in disgust.

But a 31-11 drubbing at the hands of the Vols — it felt worse than that because Tennessee led by 31 at the break — should’ve sent a loud message to any potential buyers.

“The nation’s longest streak without a shutout resides in Gainesville!”

Kidding, though that was the only interesting element worth following in the middle of the 3rd quarter as Florida attempted a long field goal in hopes that it wouldn’t be staring at its first goose egg since 1988.

The loud message to any potential buyers like Lane Kiffin — or anybody else who might have some interest in being the new Swamp King — should’ve been simple.

This house? It’s a gut job.

Sure, maybe it’s got some good bones in the form of some promising skill players, along with a venue that can still bring it on a given night. But as Florida fans trickled out in the first half instead of sticking around to watch Tennessee celebrate its first such win since the first term of the George W. Bush administration, reality should’ve hit.

The 3-8 Gators aren’t getting one of those overnight renovations. Not in this era of the sport.

When Florida hit its previous 21st-century rock bottom in the wake of the disastrous Jim McElwain mess in 2017, it had a couple things working in its favor. For starters, it didn’t have the 30-day transfer portal window, which will be available to Florida players at season’s end as the result of Billy Napier’s firing. There wasn’t necessarily a mass exodus with that 2017 squad. In fact, it returned a whopping 17 starters. That’s why even on the heels of that 4-win season, all Florida had to do to crack the AP Top 25 in 2018 was beat an FCS foe in the first game of the Dan Mullen era.

(The irony is that the 2018 Florida team both lost that first game as a ranked opponent by falling to Kentucky at home for the first time since the pre-Steve Spurrier era, only to then beat Joe Burrow-led LSU in The Swamp a month later.)

Not a single player on the current Florida roster is a virtual lock to stay for 2025, regardless of who that new coach is. Would it help if the Gators pulled off an 11th hour miracle and got Kiffin? Of course. Nobody recruits the transfer portal as well as Kiffin, and the fact that he’s leading a Playoff-bound team with a Division II quarterback tells you everything you need to know about his ability to play the cards he’s dealt.

But any winning hand for Florida includes a gut job. That can’t be denied.

If you saw Tennessee run all over a banged-up Florida defense, which likely already has several key pieces protecting their respective futures, you know what I’m talking about. The Gators suffered their most lopsided loss in the rivalry since Year 1 of the Spurrier era. That 1990 Florida team was expected to be a gut job, but Spurrier worked his magic upon arrival.

Again, that was a different era of the sport. It’s a different era of the SEC, too. Tennessee was the 7th ranked foe that the Gators faced this year. The Vols weren’t a top-10 team like the other 6 ranked foes on Florida’s grinder of a 2025 slate, but they might as well have been. The 248 rushing yards against the Gators marked their 3rd consecutive game allowing at least 230 rushing yards. If that continues next week against Tommy Castellanos-led Florida State, it could mark the 5th time in the last 6 seasons that Florida failed to finish with a top-70 scoring defense.

That’s right. Top 70.

That defensive issue will be lost in the shuffle of whoever Florida hires, especially in the likely event that it’s an offensive-minded head coach for the 4th consecutive time. After all, Will Muschamp was a defensive-minded guy and his offenses were a walking gut job. Surely any Napier successor with a defensive-minded background will also be held to 20 points in a home loss to Georgia Southern.

One couldn’t help but wonder if Saturday’s loss was the lowest point in The Swamp since that home defeat back in 2013. Lord knows there have been other moments, like allowing Samford to put up half a hundred in the first game after Todd Grantham’s firing in 2021. There was the time that Florida lost an overtime game to an Arkansas team that was steering directly at a 4-8 season in 2023. And of course, who could forget the USF loss 11 weeks ago? The candidates are aplenty.

Amid all of that, though, Florida could always come back to beating Tennessee in The Swamp and chuckle whenever the Vols did anything of meaning. No more. Florida would do wild things to have what Tennessee has under Josh Heupel. As in, the Year 5 coach — something Florida hasn’t had since Urban Meyer — who capped off the best 3-year stretch of Tennessee football in 2 decades by leading the Vols to their first Playoff berth. Heupel won’t be going back there this year, but he’s at least living in an upper-middle class house that doesn’t give people the ick the second they walk in.

Florida can still throw a good party (the Texas game was fun), but the list of repairs is a mile long. It goes beyond the hundreds of millions of dollars that have been committed to renovating Ben-Hill Griffin Stadium at the end of the decade. Florida not being able to put together a presentable showing against a decent Tennessee team in The Swamp should tell you all you need to know.

Hard hats are required for whoever takes on the gut job in Gainesville.

The post Florida’s embarrassing new low vs. Tennessee should serve as a reminder: A gut job awaits new coach in Gainesville appeared first on Saturday Down South.

It’s the penultimate weekend of the regular season, and you need to win these final 2 games to reach the Playoff. For the 3rd consecutive week, you’re tasked with beating an AP Top 25 team from the SEC. This time, that’ll entail a matchup against the nation’s leading rusher. Your backfield is banged up, and your quarterback might not be fully healthy just yet.

Now open your eyes and tell me who you’d want — Brent Venables or Lincoln Riley?

You don’t have to imagine that reality because it just played out. Venables was the right man to accomplish that once-daunting task. Three games — all of which with win-or-go-home implications for the CFP — resulted in containing 3 prolific offenses en route to an Oklahoma win.

Venables might not be as accomplished as his predecessor, but you can’t tell me that Riley would’ve just pulled off that kind of feat.

That’s not a dig at Riley’s 1-3 record vs. SEC competition during his time at Oklahoma. That’s not really a fair sample size. He bolted for Los Angeles before he could ever get that.

It is, however, a dig at Riley’s ability to win big-time matchups in the often ugly, grind-it-out manner that we’ve seen the 2025 Oklahoma team embrace. Venables can do that, and Riley … well, you know.

For the 5th time this season, Venables led OU to a win vs. a ranked opponent

This time was a 17-6 defensive struggle in which the Sooners held the nation’s leading rusher, Ahmad Hardy, to 57 yards on 17 carries for No. 23 Mizzou. In all 5 of those wins, an AP Top 25 team was held to 26 points or less at the hands of the OU defense.

The last 2 wins were without top Oklahoma defensive player R Mason Thomas, who has been out since his scoop-and-score against Tennessee. That game was the worst statistical showing for the OU defense in that quintet of ranked wins, but it was also a game in which the Sooners forced 3 turnovers against the nation’s No. 2 scoring offense, who was held to 17 points less than its season average.

Not too shabby.

Just for a little perspective, Riley never had to face more than 3 ranked foes in the regular season during his 5 years in Norman. Riley had a 15-6 record vs. ranked foes, which still trumps the 9-7 mark that Venables has as he nears the end of Year 4. The side-by-side will still favor the former, even if Riley’s “defenses” only held ranked foes to 26 or less 1/3 of the time in those 21 matchups vs. ranked foes.

But I digress.

It’s different. Very different. Oklahoma fans know that. Oklahoma fans have embraced that.

Has the rest of college football? That’s a different story. That might not matter as long as the selection committee continues to favor the impressive OU résumé. Last Tuesday’s post-Alabama win ranking was pivotal because at No. 8, not only were the Sooners the top-ranked 2-loss team, but they’re also in line to earn a home Playoff game (that goes to teams seeded 5-8). That matters.

Then again, maybe hosting a home Playoff game won’t be as impactful for the 2025 version of Oklahoma. After all, we just watched Oklahoma go into Alabama and hand the Tide its first home loss vs. an SEC foe since 2019 LSU, and before that, the Sooners became the first non-Georgia team to knock off Tennessee in Neyland Stadium since Year 1 of the Josh Heupel era. That game marked the Sooners’ first true road win vs. a ranked foe since 2019, AKA Year 3 of the Riley era.

Defense travels, and OU’s got it in spades

Saturday’s performance, which saw 2 more of the Sooners’ top defensive players (Robert Spears-Jennings and Taylor Wein) briefly leave the game with injuries, included holding Mizzou without a touchdown. The only 2 other instances of the Tigers being held without a touchdown during the second 6 years of the Eli Drinkwitz era came in 2021 at Georgia, who might’ve had the best defense of the 21st century, and 2024 at Alabama when Mizzou started the ineffective Drew Pyne in place of the injured Brady Cook.

Go figure that Saturday actually marked the expedited return of the injured Beau Pribula for Mizzou. The normally mobile starter might’ve been limited coming off the ankle injury, but it was still no small feat to hold him to -1 total rushing yards. Take away the 4 Oklahoma sacks and Pribula had 4 carries for 19 yards for a Mizzou rushing attack that was held to just 88 sack-adjusted rushing yards. Mind you, Hardy and the Tigers came into Saturday ranked No. 6 in FBS at 241.7 rushing yards per game, and they were held to their worst rushing performance since last year at Texas A&M.

Welcome to the Venables experience. More times than not, it’s what you sign up for when you play Oklahoma.

Time will tell whether the Sooners truly have national championship upside. Despite somehow winning the rushing battle 103-70 on Saturday — John Mateer led the way with 18 carries for 60 yards in a second half that’s only scoring was a Tate Sandell field goal — the lack of a ground game could be the difference there. Oklahoma is averaging 128.2 rushing yards/game. The only national champion since 1936 with fewer rushing yards per contest was 1999 Florida State at 122.8 rushing yards per game.

For now, that’s on the back burner. All that should matter is that OU is now a win away from all but guaranteeing a Playoff berth with a schedule that included 7 games vs. ranked foes. Regardless of what happens the rest of the way, that should be celebrated.

Plenty of coaches would’ve wilted under that kind of pressure. This year, Venables showed that he wasn’t one of them.

Imagine that.

The post You can’t tell me that Lincoln Riley would’ve pulled off what Brent Venables just did in 2025 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

If and when you finish watching the No. 8 Sooners take care of No. 22 Mizzou to preserve a clear path to the Playoff, flip on CBS. At 3:30 p.m. ET, Lincoln Riley will lead No. 15 USC in the biggest game of his post-OU tenure at No. 7 Oregon. Oklahoma fans, and really anyone who just enjoys elite, made-for-the-silver-screen entertainment, I’m gonna ask you to do something that might seem so heinous that you’ll be tempted to close this column the second that you read this words. Ready for it?

Root for USC on Saturday.

Why?!? How could someone possibly do such a thing? You don’t go watch Batman and root for The Joker. How in the world could one justify rooting for Riley and his torched brisket?

Rooting for USC means you’re in favor of potentially setting up the juiciest Playoff matchup to date. It might even be the juiciest postseason matchup of the 21st century if it comes to fruition.

There’s a world in which a USC win on Saturday at Oregon sets up a first-round Playoff game at Oklahoma. Yes, the return of the prodigal, uh … enemy? Riley returning to Norman after he bolted west for Los Angeles and his 12 bathrooms would be the stuff of legend. It would be the type of Playoff matchup that would even have the “bring back the BCS” crowd chomping at the bit.

Chomping at the bit is exactly how Oklahoma fans would feel to see this Brent Venables defense face what would be Riley’s best USC team

That’s a dream chaos scenario for all parties except Riley, who would have to have his lifetime ban of stepping foot in the Sooner State lifted for 1 day. What a glorious day that would be.

Again, this is specific to 2025. If you had told Oklahoma fans that they were going to get USC in a Holiday Bowl matchup last year, they would’ve dry-heaved. Last year’s team wasn’t the ideal showcase of the Brent Venables era, AKA the post-Riley era.

This year? That’s a different story.

This is the exact vision of what Venables hoped to create in Norman. A loaded, versatile defense is finally coupled with a gritty quarterback and an innovative offensive mind. Complementary football? Oklahoma finally has it. Is it a Riley-like offense? Not at all. That was never the plan. But John Mateer, who was the leader in the Heisman Trophy odds before his midseason thumb surgery, is averaging 268.4 yards of offense per game and led OU to 4 wins in which it scored 23-26 points.

But tell me that you wouldn’t want to see this Venables defense against Riley’s offense. As in, the defense that just cost Ty Simpson a shot at the Heisman Trophy and did so without its best player, R Mason Thomas. Like, the defense that hasn’t allowed 4.0 yards per carry since Week 2 vs. Michigan (the Wolverines only reached 4.6 yards per carry thanks to a 75-yard touchdown run when OU allowed 32 carries for 71 yards outside of that). You know, the defense that ranks No. 2 in America in sacks who forced 3 turnovers in each of the last 2 games, both of which were true road wins vs. AP Top 25 wins.

Before this 2-game stretch, OU was in search of its first true road win vs. a ranked foe since 2019. That’s right. Jalen Hurts was responsible for the last such victory.

In the 4 years that Riley has been at USC, he’s 1-6 in those contests with the lone win being back in Year 1 when he led the Trojans to a 48-45 win at No. 16 UCLA. Perhaps that’s all the more reason why winning at No. 7 Oregon, where Riley is 0-1, is a bit of a pipe dream and throwing out history to root for Riley will end in more disappointment. After all, it wasn’t long ago that the Ducks boasted the nation’s longest home winning streak. Indiana came into Eugene and ended that in emphatic fashion, which is why Saturday’s showdown between 1-loss Oregon and 2-loss USC feels like a Playoff elimination game. With a win, USC would inevitably slide into the top 12 ahead of what would be a 2-loss Oregon team.

Ahead of a home matchup vs. 3-win UCLA and an interim coaching staff to close the regular season, USC winning on Saturday at Oregon would make a Playoff berth feel imminent for Riley and Co. Ahead of a home matchup vs. LSU and an interim coaching staff to close the regular season, Oklahoma winning on Saturday vs. Mizzou would make a Playoff berth feel imminent for Venables and Co.

So let’s paint the picture of this for Selection Sunday

Oklahoma fans, if you know USC is making the Playoff, you’re mapping out those scenarios for Selection Sunday. You can assume that if both Oklahoma and USC have 2 losses, OU is getting the higher ranking. Why? Winning at Alabama, where no SEC team had won since 2019, will carry more weight than winning at Oregon. After all, Oklahoma is the highest-ranked 2-loss team. Even selection committee darling Notre Dame isn’t ahead of the Sooners.

Whether it’s an 8-9 or a 7-10 matchup, both would yield the same result. Perhaps some would accuse the selection committee of chasing ratings by setting up that matchup.

And the problem with that would be … ?

If we do indeed get Oklahoma hosting USC in Round 1, it would be a showdown that would blow the Josh Heupel return to Norman out of the water. Heupel wasn’t hated by OU in the way that Riley forever will be. The vitriol would be oozing out of Memorial Stadium in ways that we’ve perhaps never seen for 1 specific person. There are hostile atmospheres, and then there’s whatever a Riley return to Norman would yield.

Epic? Beyond. Diabolical? Absolutely.

As natural as it’s become for Oklahoma fans to root for Riley to crash and burn on a national stage, Saturday is worth flipping the script for.

This time, pull for The Joker.

The post Why Oklahoma fans (and fans of elite entertainment) should be rooting for Lincoln Riley’s USC this week appeared first on Saturday Down South.

CBS Sports’ Shehan Jeyarajah joined the show to discuss the weird developments on the College Football Playoff, the coaching carousel and Texas Tech’s rise.

The guys close with Lad of the Week!

Watch the full episode here:

Subscribe to The Saturday Down South Podcast here, and subscribe to Saturday Down South on YouTube for all the latest video content!

The post SDS Podcast: Can Oklahoma and Vandy keep CFP hopes alive? Shehan Jeyarajah on coaching carousel & Texas Tech appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Steve Sarkisian would like you, me and Joe Blow to know that everything is fine with him at Texas and he’s not going anywhere. The Year 5 Longhorns coach made that point emphatically on the SEC Teleconference on Wednesday, wherein he addressed outside speculation about his future … unprompted:

Here was the full quote:

Sure, that’s fine.

That could’ve stemmed from what came out before the game at Mississippi State when Sarkisian’s name was at the center of a report from The Athletic’s Diana Russini that his representatives, “have let NFL decision-makers know that he’d be interested in potential head coaching openings, including the Titans’.”

There’s some careful wording in there that certainly makes it safe for Sarkisian to offer up an emphatic denial that he’s got 1 foot out the door. Whether he waited to address that until Texas suffered loss No. 3 and saw it’s name next to the No. 17 spot in the Playoff Poll heading into the penultimate weekend of the regular season, well, that’s in the eye of the beholder.

It’s also apparently in the eye of the beholder whether or not Texas has underachieved this year. As in, the program who earned its first preseason AP No. 1 ranking in its rich history.

Ask Sarkisian about that, and he’ll remind you that “underachieving” is a subjective term.

If Sarkisian had just cut off that first part of his response to longtime Texas columnist Kirk Bohls, that response doesn’t get all of that social media engagement. If everything is fine, why is it so hard for Sarkisian to just say “I’m proud of how we handled adversity, but we haven’t achieved our goals this season.” Forget the preseason ranking. Truth serum Sarkisian would never tell you that 7-3 is an acceptable place to be for a program who has been to consecutive semifinals. Do you think Sarkisian has approached his team after these 3 losses and told his team, “you guys met my expectations today.” No chance.

But instead, that reasonable question was turned into an icy exchange by Sarkisian. Why? Nobody expects Sarkisian to pretend that everything is fine.

Sarkisian presented that front repeatedly when asked about Arch Manning this season. The “I’ve never filmed any of you guys when you’re using the bathroom” response to early-season speculation about Manning wincing after throws was weird, and if you’ve observed Sarkisian in a local media setting, it’s been noticeably weird how little insight he provides on Manning.

“Dismissive” might be the best word to describe Sarkisian’s 2025. After that Florida loss, Sarkisian seemed to dismiss the idea that Texas’s Playoff chances were in significant danger even though it was a 2-loss team heading into the midway point of the season. With 3 losses, Sarkisian dismissed the idea that his team has underachieved.

Speaking of getting to 3 losses, Sarkisian apparently has some strong thoughts about that dreaded total.

As Lane Kiffin said on The Pat McAfee Show on Tuesday, he, Kirby Smart and Sarkisian have a group text, wherein they discuss things like what a loss means. Here was the index that they came up with after watching Brian Kelly get fired at LSU, according to Kiffin:

One small, tiny issue with that.

Smart is the coach of a 1-loss team who is very much in the top 10, as is Kiffin. In fact, all but 2 (No. 11 BYU and No. 16 Georgia Tech) of the remaining 1-loss teams are in the top 10.

Another small, tiny issue with that is Sarkisian is coaching a 3-loss team who is ranked No. 17. According to their own index, not only does that mean the Longhorns are out of the top 25 — every 2-loss Power Conference team is currently inside the top 25 of the Playoff Poll — but it means that Sarkisian should be fired.

Mind you, Sarkisian’s squad lost 3 games last year. So did Smart’s and Kiffin’s. Not only are all of them are still employed, but they’re all on 8-figure contracts.

(OK, Kiffin technically isn’t there yet. He’s only making $9 million annually, but if he’s not making $10 million annually after all of this drama for his services, knock me over with a feather.)

In fact, Sarkisian got both a raise and an extension after a 3-loss season in 2024. It made him one of the 5 highest-paid coaches in the sport.

Everything should be fine in Austin, even in the likely event that Texas ends its season playing in the Citrus Bowl instead of another College Football Playoff. After all, Texas was the only program in America who entered 2025 having reached the semifinal in consecutive years. Hence, why it earned that preseason No. 1 ranking. It’s also why it earned the right to say that 3 regular-season losses isn’t fine. Whether he admits it or not, Sarkisian has felt a bit off all year.

According to who, you ask? You, me and Joe Blow.

The post For a coach who says everything is fine, Steve Sarkisian is giving off some weird vibes appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Kiffin is about to upset 2 SEC fanbases.

Well, we’re assuming Kiffin doesn’t go rogue and take the Penn State job, or decide that he’s taking his talents to the moon (I hear the boosters are even crazier there than the ones we’ve got on earth). In the likely event that Kiffin can’t coach at Florida, LSU and Ole Miss, at least 2 SEC fanbases are about to get their hearts broken. And hey, let’s throw Auburn in there for fun. After all, that’s the job that Kiffin nearly took until his daughter, Landry, put together the sentimental slideshow that changed history.

Ultimately, someone will come up short in their pitch of Kiffin, who reportedly has until the Egg Bowl on Nov. 28 to decide if he’s staying at Ole Miss (he’s since denied that he is on a deadline). They’ll be wondering how he turned down their ideal situation where he could’ve been a legend. Apply that jaded sentiment to any of those aforementioned SEC teams.

But as Kiffin steers directly into a recruitment unlike any in recent memory, I thought I’d help with the inevitable coping that’ll be needed to stomach such a loss.

These 5 anti-Kiffin stats will help with that:

1. Kiffin has 1 true road win vs. a Power Conference AP Top 25 team since the SEC expanded to 14 teams

That’s right. I said 14 teams, not 16. Since the start of 2012, Kiffin’s lone true road win vs. a Power Conference AP Top 25 team came a few weeks ago at No. 13 Oklahoma. Yes, he also beat a ranked Tulane team on the road in Sept. 2023, though that was with the Green Wave playing a backup quarterback. In the last 14 seasons (including this one), Kiffin is 2-12 vs. AP Top 25 teams in true road games.

In that stretch, Billy Napier was 1-14 in those matchups as an FBS head coach, and Sam Pittman was 1-13. That’s extremely similar to Kiffin, though with a different price tag. Just for a little perspective, even Steve Sarkisian is 7-10 in those spots since 2012, and Josh Heupel, who always gets reminded about his road issues, is 4-8 in those spots. Shoot, even Kalen DeBoer is 8-2 lifetime vs. AP Top 25 teams in true road games.

If you’re getting paid 8 figures on an annual basis like Kiffin figures to with this inevitable new contract that he’ll sign — he’s currently making $9 million annually — your legacy is defined by whether you can win those types of games. There are 25 active FBS coaches with at least 3 wins vs. AP Top 25 teams in true road games, and Kiffin isn’t one of them.

That’ll be a major trend for him to flip wherever he coaches in 2026.

2. Kiffin has never started and finished as an AP Top 10 team

Two times, Kiffin led a team that started in the top 10. The 2012 USC squad infamously went from preseason No. 1 to falling to 7-6 after a loss in the Sun Bowl, while the 2024 Ole Miss squad started No. 6 and posted top-3 finishes in scoring offense and scoring defense, but lost 3 games by a combined 13 points and missed the 12-team Playoff.

Kiffin had 3 teams start as top-15 teams, and they went a combined 25-14 with 2 unranked finishes. Sure, 2 of those were at USC, who had more roster limitations post-NCAA sanctions than the casual fan (or even USC decision makers) might care to acknowledge, but this is perhaps the most important question to ask if and when Kiffin makes his decision for 2026.

How will he handle massive expectations?

That’s what’ll follow him wherever he goes. To this point in his career, he’s been better at exceeding a low bar than meeting a high one, which is perhaps why he’s been such a godsend at Ole Miss, where he became the first coach in program history to deliver 3 consecutive 10-win seasons. He’s got 4 such seasons in Oxford, and 3 of them were with teams who didn’t even start in the top 20 of the AP Poll.

Kirby Smart has 7 consecutive seasons of starting and finishing as an AP Top 10 team, while Ryan Day has done that 6 times (he’ll make it 7 this year). Dabo Swinney did it 6 times at Clemson, and fellow top-dollar coaches like Dan Lanning, Marcus Freeman and Sarkisian have each done it once. It’s the type of thing that next-tier coaches like Mario Cristobal and Heupel haven’t quite been able to do yet. Brian Kelly couldn’t do it at LSU, which is ultimately why that job is vacant. Sometimes, that’s still not enough. James Franklin has done it twice, and he got the boot.

Kiffin’s ability (or inability) to do this will define the next chapter of his career.

3. In 14 seasons as a head coach, Jaxson Dart leads Kiffin-produced quarterbacks with 17 career NFL touchdowns

Also of note, Dart is a rookie who wasn’t QB1 to start the season, and he’s also injured. It took less than half a season for Dart to best previous NFL touchdowns leader among Kiffin-produced quarterbacks, Matt Barkley, who had 12 career scores as a journeyman backup. In other words, Dart is already the best NFL QB that Kiffin produced in 14 years as a head coach.

What does it matter if Kiffin just cranks out elite offenses, you ask? It’s a fair question. After all, if Kiffin can take a Division II transfer like Trinidad Chambliss and turn him into a Heisman Trophy candidate, who cares if he isn’t lining up NFL quarterbacks like Lincoln Riley? Plus, if Dart succeeds in the NFL, doesn’t that push back against the notion that Kiffin’s scheme is too college-centric for a quarterback to make that transition at the next level?

Yep, that’s totally fair. But ask yourself this — wouldn’t Kiffin be more attractive to decorated high school and portal quarterbacks if there wasn’t any discourse about that?

Kiffin’s last 5-star quarterback he signed was Max Browne in 2013. He inherited Matt Corral and he signed Dart from USC out of the portal after he flashed as a true freshman, albeit for a Trojans squad who had a lame duck coaching staff. At Ole Miss, Kiffin hasn’t really both signed and developed a high school quarterback recruit. Once, that was supposed to be Marcel Reed, then he flipped to Texas A&M just before National Signing Day in 2023. Then, it was supposed to be Austin Simmons, but when he got his shot earlier this season as a redshirt sophomore, multiple first-quarter interceptions in his first 2 starts and an ankle injury opened the door for Chambliss.

Again, Kiffin’s quarterbacks all produce. That’s not the knock. The knock is that he can’t really sit with a decorated high school quarterback recruit and sell that NFL path.

4. At Ole Miss, he’s 4-12 when his teams are held to 25 points or less

Even Riley is 5-8 when his teams have been held to 25 points or less in the 2020s. It’s essentially the same mark as offensive-minded coaches like Heupel (4-13) and Kenny Dillingham (5-13). It makes sense given their background that there’s a certain style of game that Kiffin would prefer to win that would differ from the defensive-minded Smart, who is 9-6 when his team has been held to 25 or less in the 2020s. That’s obvious.

(It’ll come as no surprise that Kirk Ferentz leads FBS with 18 wins when held to 25 points or less in the 2020s.)

And yes, it’s a positive that Kiffin’s Ole Miss teams are 50-7 when they score at least 26 points. You’ll take that all day, every day. That’s what you’re signing up for if you hire an elite offensive mind like Kiffin.

But to win at an elite level, you’d like to be able to win in a variety of ways. Ole Miss watched its Playoff dreams die in 2024 because it was stuck on 17 points in 2 of those losses, and when the Rebels were held to 26 in the overtime loss at LSU, that was after failing to score a second-half touchdown. It’s unrealistic to expect Kiffin to win 2/3 of his games without hitting 26 points like Nick Saban did in 17 seasons at Alabama, or like Day has since he took over at Ohio State in 2019. It is, however, realistic to expect Kiffin to get that number closer to .500, which is where the offensive-minded Jeff Brohm is (10-11 in those games in the 2020s).

Kiffin appears to have righted the defensive issues that plagued his first few seasons at Ole Miss. Now, he just has to be better at winning games when the offense isn’t humming.

5. He’s never coached in a Power Conference championship or a Playoff game, and every other 8-figure coach has done both

Well, with the exception of Bill Belichick. The whole “9 Super Bowl appearances as a head coach” sort of covers that.

Here’s the list of the other 8 coaches who made at least $10 million in 2025 (via USA Today):

• Kirby Smart
• Ryan Day
• Lincoln Riley
• Dabo Swinney
• Steve Sarkisian
• Dan Lanning
• Kalen DeBoer
• Brian Kelly

And yes, we need to mention that Kiffin’s 2011 USC squad would’ve accomplished that feat if not for the postseason ban from the Pete Carroll era NCAA sanctions. That needs to be mentioned here because it was indeed the preamble for the aforementioned 2012 USC squad that earned a preseason No. 1 ranking. We also need to mention that Kiffin’s current squad is also on the brink of a Playoff berth, and it still will have an outside (but unlikely) shot at reaching the SEC Championship Game, which is something Ole Miss has never done in the 33-year history of the event.

But it’s a stat worth referencing because Kiffin is likely going to have to make that destination decision before we ever see him on that stage. Being on that stage as an assistant, like he was at USC and Alabama, is entirely different than competing for a conference title or in the Playoff. It’s not that Kiffin is destined to shrink in those moments. It’s that there’s not even a sample size to project that. He’s coached in 2 BCS/New Year’s 6 Bowls, 1 of which saw Corral suffer a game-ending injury in the 1st quarter, and the other was a blowout win vs. Penn State in the 2023 Peach Bowl.

If Kiffin leaves Ole Miss, he’ll be judged on whether he can win a title. Period. If he stays at Ole Miss, he’ll still be defined by reaching new heights like reaching the Playoff and perhaps advancing to the semifinals.

Whatever Kiffin chooses will be seen as a massive victory for that fanbase, and understandably so. He’s earned that right after reestablishing himself as one of the top coaches in the sport.

But maybe not all is lost for the fanbase(s) who misses out on the top prize.

The post If you’re among the fanbases who’ll miss out on Lane Kiffin, here are 5 stats to help you cope appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Both 2-loss teams would still make the Playoff if the season ended today. Inevitably, both fanbases will tell you “ignore the rankings and just win.” Sure. Teams can do that. Coaches can sell that.

As for the rest of us, well, we’re free to break down a significant development on Tuesday night.

Alabama losing to Oklahoma was inevitably going to drop the Tide below the Sooners within the top 10. Dropping Alabama below Notre Dame, who got a nice road win at 7-win Pitt in Week 12, made as much sense as whatever Pat Narduzzi said about the significance of facing the Irish with College GameDay in the house.

Don’t believe that? OK, here’s the not-so-blind résumé:

• Wins vs. current Playoff 25: Alabama 4, Notre Dame 1
• Wins vs. Power Conference bowl teams: Alabama 5, Notre Dame 2
• Wins vs. current Playoff Top 10: Alabama 1, Notre Dame 0

Ah, but now is the part where Notre Dame fans jump in and tell me that Alabama got smashed at Florida State in Week 1, and that’s a much worse loss than anything on Notre Dame’s résumé. It’s definitely worse. We’ve also had multiple weeks of the selection committee treating Alabama as the top 1-loss team. It wasn’t as if the loss in Tallahassee was wiped off the slate, but there was some grace because of what the Tide did to make up for it since Week 1.

You know, like beat 4 consecutive AP Top 25 teams without any bye or rest. No team in SEC history had ever done that. Never mind the fact that those teams entered those matchups with 0-1 losses.

How have those historic 4 wins aged, you asked?

Well, Georgia is up to No. 4 with still just that lone home loss to Alabama, Vanderbilt is still in the hunt as a 2-loss team at No. 14 and Tennessee and Mizzou are 3-loss teams who are both still in the Playoff Poll at No. 20 and No. 22, respectively, heading into the 4th Saturday of November.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s best win is at home against 2-loss USC, who is still a spot behind Vanderbilt.

Ah, but now is there part where Notre Dame fans jump in and tell me about this unbelievable 8-game winning streak. As in, the one that finally included winning a road game against a Power Conference team who had … beaten another conference team. That one.

Even after wins over USC and mighty Pitt, the Power Conferences foes that Notre Dame beat are a combined 13-27 in conference play. In a not-so-stunning development, the Irish’s 2 losses came to the 2 highest-ranked teams it faced this year. Funny how that works. It’s almost as if playing favorable opponents and getting 5 weeks to lick your wounds after an 0-2 start helps. It’s a bit different than how Alabama was tasked with responding.

Oh, but the Tide lost to Oklahoma! That’s a sign of weakness!

Or, perhaps, it’s a sign that Alabama lost in a down-to-the-wire game that could’ve been flipped with a well-executed kick. Notre Dame can relate to that. We all watched how that Texas A&M game played out. Does the selection committee remember those 2 Notre Dame losses? Or is this just all about beating up on a bunch of teams outside the Top 25?

Remember that this weekend when Notre Dame fans and the anti-SEC crowd will post screen shots of Alabama’s matchup with Eastern Illinois. It’ll conveniently ignore that the Tide’s path to loss No. 2 was still far more daunting that the Notre Dame one the selection committee just gave the benefit of the doubt to.

But hey, it’ll all sort itself out, right? Alabama currently sits at No. 10, which would be the last spot in the field if the Playoff started tomorrow (the ACC champ and Group of 5 champ would be put into the final top 12). There’s a chance that Alabama’s résumé doesn’t add anything more than a win against lowly Auburn, and tiebreakers could leave the Tide out of the SEC Championship Game. If 10-2 Alabama is idle during conference championship weekend like we know the Irish will be, those 2 teams are likely staying locked in. That could be Notre Dame getting to No. 8 and Alabama missing out on a home Playoff game at No. 9.

That would be backwards logic. The Irish have been living off it during these first 3 rankings.

It was bad enough that Notre Dame clocked in 8 spots ahead of Miami in the first Playoff ranking. The Irish have already been told by the selection committee that the head-to-head advantage wasn’t enough to block off Notre Dame’s path, even though the selection committee applied that logic to a variety of teams with the same number of losses, including Alabama and No. 8 Oklahoma.

This, however, was another sign that key metrics are being ignored by the selection committee, and it could have a significant impact on how this all shakes out.

Nobody will ever cry foul for Alabama after the unprecedented levels of success the Tide had. And yes, teams like 2017 and 2023 might’ve gotten the benefit of the doubt to make the 4-team field.

But this Alabama squad got its first raw deal of 2025 thanks to the luck of the Irish.

The post Alabama falling behind Notre Dame in the Playoff Poll? That’s a joke appeared first on Saturday Down South.

It is, however, my job to figure out how the Playoff works. Or rather, how it’ll look.

This week, we’ve got a few things to sort through. How high will Oklahoma rise after winning at Alabama? Also, will the Tide come in behind Notre Dame? Will the ACC have anybody in the top 12? Is the Big 12 going to have 3 teams in the top 12 and move a step closer to being a lock for multiple bids?

Let’s dig into what I expect Tuesday night’s rankings will look like.

(Don’t forget that this is the week that’s sandwiched between the 2 college basketball games so the rankings show starts at approximately 8:30 p.m ET.):

12. Utah

Utah’s ceiling is limited by losing to the top 2 in the Big 12, which is BYU and Texas Tech, who appear destined for a rematch in the conference title game. That could make it a difficult path to build on a résumé that doesn’t have any more remaining opportunities for quality wins. They’ll likely need chaos to make the field, but for now, I’d expect the Utes to stay ahead of Vanderbilt.

11. BYU

Aforementioned Utah will help BYU’s floor, which has now become an important thing to see on a weekly basis in the event that it gets to the Big 12 Championship Game with 1 loss. Just like we saw last year with SMU, there could be questions about whether a second loss to Texas Tech would knock the Cougars out of an at-large spot. Of course, the No. 11 team in this ranking would barely miss out on a field that would still need the ACC and Group of 5 champs. Taking care of business in decisive fashion to close the regular season is paramount for BYU.

10. Notre Dame

Just because the AP put Notre Dame ahead of Alabama doesn’t mean the selection committee will see it that way. As much as the selection committee respected the Irish’s turnaround after the 0-2 start, there are still only 2 needle-moving victories, though the most recent one was in decisive fashion at 7-win Pitt. Saturday was the first time that Notre Dame picked up a road victory against a Power Conference team with 3 wins. Clearly, the selection committee values how dominant the Irish have been, but jumping fellow 2-loss Alabama might not be in the cards.

9. Alabama

Losing to Oklahoma at home for loss No. 2 will now have the selection committee viewing Alabama through a different lens. It’s not that the Tide laid a horrendous egg by falling at home, but they’re now going to be compared to other 2-loss teams. So if we’re comparing Alabama to other 2-loss teams, we have to put the Tide behind the Oklahoma team it lost to, but here’s your side-by-side with aforementioned Notre Dame:

• Wins vs. current AP Top 25: Alabama 4, Notre Dame 1
• Wins vs. Power Conference bowl teams: Alabama 5, Notre Dame 2
• Wins vs. current AP Top 10: Alabama 1, Notre Dame 0

Yes, the Florida State loss happened. It also didn’t prevent the selection committee from making Alabama the top 1-loss team the last 2 weeks. Keep that in mind.

8. Oklahoma

Beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa was 1 of the 3 most impressive wins of the season. Maybe you’d put it just behind Alabama winning at Georgia, and Indiana winning at Oregon. Whatever the case, it was monumental. OU now has a trio of wins vs. current AP Top 25 wins, 2 of which were in true road games. That’ll make the Sooners the top 2-loss team in the field with some wondering if they should be ranked ahead of Oregon. And oddly, the Texas loss hurts OU’s résumé in one sense because it’s a 3-loss team now, but the Sooners also don’t have ceiling limited by the Longhorns.

7. Oregon

Quietly, Oregon flexed with a lopsided win against bowl-bound Minnesota. That was on the heels of a gritty showing at Iowa, which allowed the Ducks to move to No. 8 in the CFP rankings. With Alabama likely moving back, I’d expect Oregon to move up another spot ahead of an all-important showdown vs. USC. The Ducks have an opportunity to get a marquee win that would all but lock in a Playoff berth. The question will become what happens if Oregon is 10-2 with its best win being at 4-loss Iowa?

6. Ole Miss

Ole Miss is a virtual lock to make the Playoff, even after the selection committee put Texas Tech as a higher-ranked 1-loss team, much to the chagrin of Lane Kiffin. The Florida win gave Ole Miss that all-important 10th victory, and while the résumé might lack some depth, winning at Oklahoma has aged well. The only real intrigue surrounding Ole Miss is whether it’ll win at Mississippi State to lock in a home Playoff game, or if it’ll lose and be forced to travel for Round 1.

5. Texas Tech

Blowout wins against Utah and BYU matter a lot, which is exactly why the Red Raiders should be in position to get another bump after the Alabama loss. There’s clearly some grace for the loss at 7-win Arizona State because Behren Morton was hurt. It’s been nothing but blowouts outside of that game, which should continue against West Virginia in a couple weeks. Tech could absolutely be in position for a first-round bye if it can win a likely rematch against BYU in the Big 12 Championship Game.

4. Georgia

You could set your watch to a Georgia beatdown of Texas. As a result, the selection committee moving Georgia into Alabama’s spot feels obvious, though ironic considering that was the Dawgs’ lone blemish this season. But now, UGA has a trio of wins vs. current AP Top 25 teams and looks like a team that’s playing its best ball down the stretch. The selection committee tends to give those teams a lot of respect. Will it be enough respect to usurp 1 of the 3 remaining unbeatens? Probably not, but it’s not a bad place to be with the SEC slate in the books.

3. Texas A&M

It’s possible that if the halves were reversed, the selection committee would be looking at Texas A&M with an eyebrow raised. That didn’t happen, though. Instead, A&M avoided what would’ve been a disastrous loss to 3-win South Carolina. The Aggies have had the benefit of facing 7 of the bottom 8 teams in the SEC, though obviously the Notre Dame win in South Bend aged like wine. It’s a Playoff-bound team. That’s obvious. What’s not as obvious is whether A&M will beat Texas in Austin to lock in its first conference championship berth of the 21st century and/or a Round 1 bye.

2. Indiana

The Hoosiers are 11-0 for the first time in program history and likely a Purdue win away from perhaps locking in a Round 1 Playoff bye. It’s crazy that the latter could be true regardless of what happens in the event that they get Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. The selection committee didn’t view the Penn State win as a setback, so one shouldn’t expect anything out of the ordinary this week, especially with how much A&M had to battle to beat 3-win South Carolina.

1. Ohio State

It’s undeniable that Ohio State has been the most dominant team in the sport. The Buckeyes haven’t trailed in the 4th quarter all year, and they haven’t led by single digits in the 4th quarter since Sept. 27. That’s dominance. The Buckeyes might only have 1 win vs. a current AP Top 25 team, but that game control matters. The Buckeyes won’t be moved off the top spot ahead of the penultimate week of the regular season.

The post Predicting the top 12 of the third Playoff Poll of 2025 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Who is your SEC Coach of the Year? Who’ll be the first-team All-SEC quarterback? How many SEC players will earn Heisman Trophy invites? Who will get to Atlanta? Is Vandy going to the Playoff?!?!

All of these things are on the table ahead of a week that many know as “Cupcake Week.” Yes, there are only 4 Power Conference matchups in the SEC this week, and Mizzou–Oklahoma is the lone matchup of Power Conference teams with a winning record. But the slate nationally isn’t much better. In fact, the Big Ten has just 1 matchup of Power Conference teams with a winning record while the ACC and Big 12 have 2 apiece.

Perhaps nationally, this should be known as Cupcake Week. That’s probably a bit ambitious when all one has to do to try and show that the SEC schedules cupcakes is take a screenshot of the slate while conveniently ignoring that the conference posted a 10-4 record vs. Power Conference foes in nonconference play.

Hey, narratives!

Here are some narratives, or rather “storylines,” to watch for in whatever you want to call Week 12 in the SEC:

Samford vs. No. 3 Texas A&M — Well, avoiding a slow start seems obvious now

Just a thought. Maybe a 30-3 halftime deficit sent a loud message to Texas A&M that it can’t afford to sleepwalk, especially in these early kickoffs. Then again, A&M sort of had issues with that to start the season against UTSA and Utah State. That double-digit deficit at Notre Dame was also in the first half, so it’s not as if A&M has shown up as a dominant force all year. Against Samford, I’d expect the Aggies to be a dominant force by day’s end, but could that take a bit of time? Perhaps. After all, A&M is now a virtual Playoff lock at 10-0. With Texas on short rest, there could be a desire to have minimal Marcel Reed designed runs, and perhaps it’s a conservative game plan ahead of the postseason. Still, though. A&M has all the motivation to avoid another slow start.

Mizzou vs. No. 8 Oklahoma — OU hasn’t let up 4.0 yards per carry since Week 2

Go figure that it was against Michigan, who only got to that number because of a 75-yard touchdown run from Justice Haynes to start the second half. Outside of that play, OU held Michigan to 31 carries for 71 yards. In other words, this Oklahoma run defense is no joke. Against the top back in the SEC, Ahmad Hardy, that’ll be put to the test. Hardy is coming off a historic 300-yard rushing performance in a lopsided win against a reeling Mississippi State defense. Hardy had 146 yards after first contact alone. How many times has OU allowed 146 rushing yards total this year? Once … against Michigan. OU is the SEC’s No. 1 run defense in both yards/carry allowed and rushing yards/game allowed, and Hardy is running away with the SEC rushing title. This is an ideal strength-on-strength matchup that figures to determine if OU will hold onto its clear Playoff path.

Charlotte vs. No. 4 Georgia — Watch those Gunner Stockton runs

In a game like this, one would think those wouldn’t be needed. After all, Brent Key’s team is on deck and if recent history is any indication, facing Georgia Tech is going to be a dogfight, especially on short rest. Stockton started off the 2025 season by becoming the first Kirby Smart era quarterback to have 10 rushing attempts in a game, which is a feat he matched 3 more times. Mind you, that was a game against Marshall. Hence, why it’s worth remembering in a game against Charlotte when Georgia should again have a lopsided matchup. Only 4 SEC players have more rushing touchdowns than Stockton (8). He’s developed a remarkable nose for the end zone in his first season as a starter. The good news is that Stockton and Mike Bobo have been on the same page for the majority of the season. I’d expect them both to understand that taking unnecessary hits against Charlotte doesn’t make a whole lot of sense ahead of the stretch run.

Eastern Illinois vs. No. 10 Alabama — Let’s see Daniel Hill featured again

If there was a silver lining of another down day at the office for the Alabama run game, it was that we at least saw the 244-pound true freshman get a career-high 15 carries. He finished with 20 scrimmage touches while Jam Miller had 10. Hill also had a 41-33 snap count advantage, albeit in a losing effort. The pass protection issues might still make that snap count closer to a 50-50 split, but at this point, Alabama has to be willing to see if Hill can spark something in the ground game. Against the SEC’s best run defense, Hill not only had 47 yards after first contact, but he had a 28-yard run for an Alabama team who hadn’t had a run that long since AK Dear had a 56-yard run in the final minute of the 73-0 win vs. Louisiana-Monroe in Week 2. In a favorable matchup, it’d nice to see Ryan Grubb make Hill the face of that backfield just so that offensive line can build up some confidence.

Mercer vs. Auburn — This isn’t your older brother’s Mercer squad

Under Year 2 coach Mike Jacobs, Mercer is 20-4 and it enters Saturday at Auburn on a 9-game winning streak having scored at least 38 points in the last 8 games. Since taking over the starting job, true freshman Braden Atkinson has 33 touchdown passes and 3,253 passing yards. Keep that in mind because the way to beat Auburn is through the air. You’re better off trying to attack this secondary and make that group tackle in the open field than you are attacking that loaded defensive front in the run game. In the first game with DJ Durkin juggling interim coaching duties, Auburn’s defense was gashed for 544 total yards at Vandy. Has Auburn already turned the page to an Iron Bowl that’s now loaded with intrigue after Playoff-hopeful Alabama suffered loss No. 2? It’s possible, but it’d be a mistake to look past a Mercer squad that’s a bit more equipped than the 2022 squad that came into Jordan-Hare and got blasted by Auburn 42-14.

Arkansas vs. No. 17 Texas — What way can Arkansas lose by 1 score this week?

I know that the spread is Texas -10 (via BetMGM), but let’s be honest. We know how this one ends. It ends the same way that Arkansas games have ended 6 times this year. That is, a 1-score loss. It’s actually remarkable that Arkansas is 0-6 in SEC play, but only -25 in scoring margin. That’s nearly impossible. Mind you, that’s not including the 18-point blown lead against Memphis, wherein the Hogs also lost that one by 1 score. The Notre Dame loss was the loudest because it was the nail in the coffin for the Sam Pittman era, but it’s turned out to be the outlier. In other words, don’t assume that Texas will take all of its Georgia anger out on Arkansas. The Longhorns haven’t blown out any Power Conference team with the exception of Oklahoma, who led at half. All signs point to Arkansas finding some ridiculous way to lose by 1 score. I’ll take a pick-6 from Michael Taaffe to break a late tie.

Kentucky vs. No. 12 Vanderbilt — Could this version of Cutter Boley spoil a Playoff bid?

Boley’s emergence has been at the forefront of Kentucky‘s 3-game winning streak. He looks more decisive, he’s trucking dudes as a runner and there’s a reason to believe that he’s established himself as a legitimate SEC starting quarterback. It’s why Kentucky is only a 9.5-point underdog against a Vandy team with Playoff life. He’s got an adjusted completion percentage of at least 79% in 4 of the last 5 games, and he’s up to 13 passing plays of 30 yards, which is 2 more than his Heisman Trophy candidate counterpart, Diego Pavia. Of course, Pavia has also been lethal as a runner with 613 rushing yards and 7 scores. Couple that with an SEC-best 166.8 QB rating and there’s no denying who the superior player is at this point of their careers. But what if Kentucky’s defense, which has allowed a total of 20 points the last 3 weeks, can get some help from Boley and put pressure in Vandy late? Will we see Pavia rise to the occasion like he did against Auburn? Or is there a world in which Mark Stoops gets his annual top-15 stunner on the road like he has the last 3 seasons? If Boley continues to progress, don’t rule it out.

Coastal Carolina vs. South Carolina — Dare I say, Mike Furrey might just be an upgrade at OC

I know that South Carolina got shut out in the second half at A&M, and it now owns the dubious distinction of being the first SEC team to blow a 27-point lead in conference play in over 2 decades. Part of that is on Furrey, no doubt. But that first half, which yielded 23 South Carolina points and a vintage LaNorris Sellers, felt like something to build on. Sellers didn’t get sacked in that first half, and it felt like there were big throwing windows for him. Does that mean Furrey has an opportunity to win the job as OC with a brilliant showing against Coastal Carolina? I wouldn’t go that far, but I would say this is a crucial stretch for Sellers’ future and finding a play caller with a clue post-Mike Shula firing was priority No. 1 for Shane Beamer.

No. 20 Tennessee vs. Florida — If not now, then when can Tennessee ever win in The Swamp?

I’m not sure if you’ve heard this, but Tennessee hasn’t won in The Swamp since 2003. That’s 10 consecutive wins in Gainesville for the home team in this rivalry, including 2 in the Josh Heupel era. At the same time, Heupel also has multiple wins against Florida. Of Tennessee’s 3 wins against Florida in the last 20 years, Heupel owns 2 of them. Can he become the first coach in the post-Phillip Fulmer era to beat Florida in The Swamp? The good news for the Vols is that much to the delight of their fanbase, this game will be played post-October for just the third time since these teams began playing annually in 1990, AKA the start of the Steve Spurrier era. The other good news for the Vols is that Spurrier won’t be on Florida’s sideline. It’ll instead be, for the first time in those 35 years, an interim head coach. The Gators showed fight on the road against Ole Miss, which turned out to be another game in which Florida collapsed late because that’s what 3-7 teams do. Florida’s receiver room is so banged up that Tennessee’s biggest area of weakness (the secondary) might not be exposed. If Heupel can’t get it done in The Swamp this time, it’s fair to wonder if Tennessee is forever cursed to lose that game.

Western Kentucky vs. LSU — Sneaky? Sure, but look at WKU’s strength of schedule

It’s No. 136 of 136. Woof. That’s the byproduct of having 1 victory vs. a team with a winning record. Tyson Helton’s squad doesn’t rank in the top 35 in scoring offense, scoring defense, yards/play, yards/play allowed, turnover margin, red-zone scoring percentage, or opposing 3rd-down conversion rate. Teams with that type of DNA typically aren’t rocking 2-loss records heading into the 4th Saturday of November. Just sayin’. We also saw LSU show that it still can compete for interim coach Frank Wilson. Sure, it was against lowly Arkansas, but LSU’s Whit Weeks-less defense still put up a fight for the second consecutive week, and the Tigers actually established the run. Hence, why an LSU team who has yet to exceed 25 points vs. FBS competition is a 22.5-point favorite (via FanDuel). Death Valley at night might not be what it once was, but this is still a lopsided matchup, despite what those records might suggest.

The post Early thoughts on each SEC game in Week 13 of 2025 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

The guys closed by predicting the CFP Top 12.

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The post SDS Podcast: Oklahoma’s statement in Tuscaloosa, Kirby Smart owns Steve Sarkisian & WTH Texas A&M? appeared first on Saturday Down South.

It gave us a couple of top-15 showdowns, it gave us an ironic Lane Kiffin showing and it gave us one of the wildest comebacks you’ll ever see. It was filled with all sorts of entertainment from start to finish.

But perhaps of equal significance on the entertainment front, it gave us an unclear SEC Championship Game picture. In fact, no SEC Championship Game berth will be clinched until the final weekend of the regular season. That’s the way we draw it up. After years of division races being over in early November, we’re getting a down-to-the-wire race to determine who gets trip to Atlanta.

Here’s what else we learned from Week 12 in the SEC:

It’s undeniable — Kirby Smart owns Steve Sarkisian

Don’t believe that? Did you see that onside kick?

Remarkable. It was the moment that turned a close game into a no-doubter. Georgia went from clinging to a 14-10 lead entering the 4th quarter to turning it into the most lopsided victory yet against the Longhorns. A 35-10 beatdown improved Smart’s record to 3-0 against Steve Sarkisian since he and the Longhorns came to the SEC last year.

This one, however, was arguably the most obvious sign that Kirby Smart owns Sarkisian. Between the onside kick, the multiple gutsy 4th-down calls and the unique pressure packages that Smart and Glenn Schumann dialed up, it was a masterclass.

Against a Texas team that showed it could overcome slow starts on the road, Georgia kept its foot on the gas by harassing Arch Manning all night. It didn’t help Texas’s cause that once again, it couldn’t run the ball and it was held to 23 rushing yards (it had 31 and 29 rushing yards in last year’s losses to UGA). Mind you, that UGA defensive showing came even though captain CJ Allen left the game. That just speaks to Smart always being 1 step ahead of Sarkisian and finding a way.

Last year, Gunner Stockton came into the SEC Championship Game and led a gritty comeback, albeit one that showed his inexperience. This year, he looked every bit like one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He tied a career-high with 5 touchdowns (4 passing, 1 rushing) against an elite Texas defense that was healthy after getting Michael Taaffe and Jelani McDonald back. It didn’t matter. Stockton was decisive, clutch and dare I say … Stetson Bennett IV-like?

Georgia is now shaping into the scariest team in the country while Texas likely will need chaos to keep its Playoff hopes alive after a blowout defeat for loss No. 3.

Brent Venables is better than you think he is at this

What do I mean by that? Let’s recap what Oklahoma just did on Saturday at Alabama without its best defensive player, R Mason Thomas. Venables and the Sooners:

• A) Scored 17 points off 3 Alabama turnovers after it had 6 all season
• B) Improved to 2-0 vs. Kalen DeBoer while handing him his first home loss since 2021 at Fresno State
• C) Handed Alabama its first SEC loss at Bryant-Denny Stadium since 2019
• D) Got arguably the most impressive true road win of the 2025 season
• E) All the above

It’s “E.” It’s always “E.”

Ty Simpson was overwhelmed by what the Sooners defense dialed up. It wasn’t just the turnovers. It was the 4 sacks and the constant pressure on Simpson that forced him into quick decisions. Taylor Wein and Kip Lewis played like All-Americans, Eli Bowen hauled in another interception against an Alabama quarterback and Peyton Bowen put the game away with a textbook pass breakup on 4th down.

In every way, it felt like exactly the type of win that Oklahoma signed up for it when it transitioned from Lincoln Riley to the defensive-minded Venables. After fooling Joey Aguilar into a sloppy performance with a statement win in Tennessee, Venables somehow one-upped that effort by winning in Tuscaloosa. Just for a little perspective, OU didn’t have a true road win vs. an AP Top 25 team in the 2020s. That is, until this 2-game stretch.

Oklahoma played like its Playoff life was on the line because, well, it was. Now at 8-2, Venables not only fended off preseason hot-seat talk, but the Sooners have a clear path to the Playoff with home games against Mizzou and LSU to close the season, both of whom have injured starting quarterbacks. With a gauntlet like what the Sooners have seen, that’s about all they could’ve asked for.

1-dimensional Alabama finally ran into the team it couldn’t fend off

Nobody said that 1-loss Alabama was a perfect team entering Saturday’s matchup vs. Oklahoma. We knew that as impressive as the 8-game winning streak was after the season-opening loss, the Tide had ground-game issues that perhaps prevented Kalen DeBoer’s squad from keeping its foot on the gas. This late into the season, it was unrealistic to expect a unit without a 4.0 yards per carry showing vs. Power Conference competition to turn things around without reinforcements.

But man, the Sooners exposed those issues in a major way.

Alabama’s pass protection broke down in part because Oklahoma didn’t respect the run. Those Sooner pass-rushers pinned their ears back and made Simpson look more overwhelmed than he’s been since the Week 1 game at Florida State. Alabama dominated time of possession, yet it couldn’t lean on the Sooners, and instead, Simpson was asked to make too many tight-window throws. Even on a day in which Alabama won the rushing battle 80-74 — that was the second time that Alabama did so in a Power Conference game — it was reminded that it might not have national championship DNA without that all-important element.

After all, nobody has won a national title with fewer than 122.8 rushing yards per game (1999 Florida State). Alabama entered the day at 111.9 and is going in the wrong direction.

Suddenly, that Iron Bowl just got a whole lot more interesting for the Tide’s Playoff chances.

Texas A&M … should we be worried or impressed? Or both?

Yes, it was worrying watching Texas A&M fall behind 30-3 at home to a 3-win South Carolina squad. Yes, it was impressive that A&M pulled off the biggest comeback in school history and become the first SEC team in the last 287 attempts to win a conference game after falling behind by 27 points.

Can both things be true?

It’s hard to play as bad as A&M did in the first half. Missed throws, drops, poor trenches play, bad kicking, brutal play calling … you name it, A&M did it. It was easily the lowest floor we’ve seen from the Aggies this year, and you could argue that it was the lowest floor we’ve seen from a potential championship contender. On the heels of news breaking of Mike Elko‘s extension, the timing couldn’t have been more awkward for A&M to lay a first-half egg like that.

But perhaps by somehow navigating that, an undefeated A&M learned a tough lesson without necessarily enduring its first loss. Marcel Reed hadn’t faced a deficit of more than 10 points all season, and it was up to him to flip the script. That’s not to discount what that A&M defense by pitching a second-half shutout against LaNorris Sellers and the Gamecock offense, which had legitimate life in the first half with interim OC Mike Furrey. At the same time, A&M would’ve been laughed off the field if not for Reed settling in, which he did after that 4th-and-12 conversion en route to a 371-76 yards advantage in the second half.

Some might want to write off A&M after it needed such a furious comeback to survive South Carolina. After all, the Aggies have their first 10-0 start since 1992 and they’re just trying to reach a conference title game for the first time in the 21st century.

At the very least, the Aggies are keeping everyone on their toes.

Finally, Lane Kiffin got the last laugh on Florida

It wasn’t easy. For a good chunk of Saturday night in Oxford, it felt like Florida could pull off one of the most stunning results of the season, and it was shades of the 2024 stunner in The Swamp when the Gators ultimately kept Kiffin’s squad from its first Playoff berth. So yeah, a year later with all the speculation about Florida’s desire to poach Kiffin, it would’ve been all sorts of ironic if it happened again.

Thankfully for Kiffin, he recruited Kewan Lacy out of the portal.

Unlike last year when Kiffin didn’t have a steady ground game for the first time at Ole Miss, he turned to Lacy to close things out. Well, there were a pair of failed 4th-and-goal attempts wherein he opted for passing plays that weren’t carries to Lacy. But other than that, Lacy got the rock all night. His 31 carries for 224 yards and 3 touchdowns set the tone for an Ole Miss squad that was up and down in seemingly every other area. Lacy allowed Trinidad Chambliss to shake off a rare subpar showing and ultimately, he allowed his head coach to avoid what would’ve been an awkward 2 weeks leading up to the Egg Bowl.

At 10-1, Ole Miss clinched its 3rd consecutive season with double-digit wins for the first time in program history. Saturday likely all but guaranteed Ole Miss a Playoff berth for the first time in program history.

What a difference a year makes.

Ahmad Hardy’s 300-yard game made perfect sense

I mean, there’s the obvious reason why we shouldn’t have been surprised to see Hardy hit the 300-yard mark and produced the 6th-best single-game rushing total in SEC history. The Mizzou running back leads the conference in rushing and Mississippi State had the second-most missed tackles (110) in the SEC entering the night, which was on the heels of allowing Georgia to rack up 303 rushing yards on 17 missed tackles.

Hardy’s brilliance all but locked in his SEC rushing title, so it made sense that he had a big night. Shoot, it even made sense that Eli Drinkwitz had him getting carries late in the blowout win, in hopes that he could get to the 300-yard mark.

But why else did it make sense? As we learned in Hardy’s postgame interview with Cole Cubelic on SEC Network, Hardy finally took the offensive line out to dinner for the first time this week. All it yielded was a 300-yard day at the office.

Needless to say, Hardy has some high-priced dinner tabs in his future.

The post The biggest SEC takeaways from Week 12 of 2025 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Was South Carolina-Texas A&M a tale of 2 halves? Nah. That’s like saying it gets cloudy during a hurricane.

Texas A&M played seemingly the worst half of football that a top-3 team has ever played at home against a 3-win team in November, and then erased it with its largest comeback in school history en route to a 31-30 victory against South Carolina. Sure. Why not? Nothing made sense on Saturday, including whatever we witnessed with that A&M trick-play attempt on 3rd-and-1 in a 1-point game, wherein a true freshman running back threw a backwards pass and turned the ball over instead of putting the game away.

But A&M’s defense held strong on South Carolina’s last-ditch drive and held on for a Playoff-clinching win — A&M somehow improved to 10-0 with FCS Samford on deck — that’ll be talked about for a long time in College Station.

“Where were you when the Aggies clinched their first Playoff berth in school history with the most baffling game in human history?”

Here’s hoping you weren’t in the way of the state trooper who decided he had the right to walk through not 1, but 2 South Carolina players.

To be fair, that state trooper showed more fight than anybody on A&M’s sideline in the first half.

(Also to be fair, A&M Police shared that the trooper had been relieved of his gameday duties … rightfully so.)

That’s hardly saying much. After all, A&M did seemingly every bad thing one can do in a half of football. It sailed passes, it dropped passes, it didn’t tackle, it shanked kicks, it didn’t win in the trenches, it got out-coached, etc. Shoot, it made matters even more awkward that it came on the heels of Mike Elko reportedly agreeing to new contract that’ll pay him more than $11 million per season, according to ESPN. Perhaps the only thing that A&M did right in the first half was not be found guilty of point shaving, though one could’ve doubted that after how atypical that performance felt from the 3-score favorite.

Never mind the fact that the 3-win Gamecocks were searching for their first win since September, or the fact that A&M hadn’t trailed by more than 10 points all season. Marcel Reed, AKA the guy who was 4th on the Heisman Trophy odds entering the day, looked like he shouldn’t have even been 4th on A&M’s depth chart during the first half. And sure, 4 first-half drops didn’t help, including a KC Concepcion drop in the end zone, and protection breakdowns led to Reed taking multiple first-half sacks behind a Joe Moore semifinalist offensive line that had -9 first-half rushing yards. But Reed had 3 first-half turnovers and looked completely rattled in ways that he hadn’t since he became A&M’s QB1 last year.

It wasn’t any better on the other side of the ball. Against a first-time play-caller in South Carolina interim OC Mike Furrey, A&M didn’t sack LaNorris Sellers once in the first half. Mind you, that was an A&M defense who ranked No. 1 in FBS in sacks per game against a South Carolina that allowed Sellers to be sacked more than any quarterback in America.

Again, nothing made sense in the first half. I cannot emphasize that enough.

With all due respect to Shane Beamer and his mid-game quote that it wasn’t surprising to see his team leading against a team that the Gamecocks beat by 24 points last year, it was stunning. It was the type of result that was so stunning that it could’ve put A&M into an all-or-nothing game against Texas to make the Playoff. Remember, you couldn’t even get odds on A&M to make the Playoff after the Week 11 win at Mizzou. That’s how much of a certainty it was. Like, even in the craziest scenario in which A&M lost to both South Carolina and Texas, surely a 10-2 mark with the Notre Dame win would still be enough. But getting destroyed at home vs. 3-win South Carolina? That would’ve changed that conversation.

Fortunately for the Aggies, they won’t have to entertain that possibility because it replaced Jekyll and Hyde with those 28 unanswered points in the second half. What sparked things, you ask? Was it the state trooper asserting his dominance after that South Carolina touchdown? Nah, that’s like saying the fan who shouts “let’s goooooo” on the jumbotron is actually the one who jump-starts a rally.

Go back to 4th-and-12 on the first possession of the second half. It’s when Reed did the thing that he inexplicably did on only a handful of times in the first half — run. Down 30-3, his 16-yard scramble at midfield prevented A&M from giving the ball back, and ultimately, that’s what got the ball rolling on that historic comeback.

In the second half, Reed led an A&M offense that out-gained South Carolina 271-76. Reed had 203 passing yards in the third quarter alone.

Reed shook off a 6-for-19 first half and finished the game with a 16-for-20 showing for 298 yards in the second half. Time will tell how that impacts Reed’s Heisman Trophy aspirations. That was on the back burner in the second half. All that mattered was that A&M avoided becoming the 287th consecutive SEC team to lose a conference game after trailing by 27 points.

Mission accomplished? Sure.

The spin zone of Saturday’s roller coaster was that it put a Playoff-bound A&M in a hole that’ll likely be steeper than perhaps any Playoff team will see in the regular season. A&M hadn’t been in those situations much at all. In fact, before Saturday, the last time the Aggies trailed in the final 25 minutes was Week 3 at Notre Dame. Reed and Co. made the plays needed late to pull that one out. This one, in just about every way, felt different.

Call A&M resilient, call A&M a fraud, call A&M whatever. Lord knows that this team has already been called all of it.

You know what else you can still call A&M, though? Undefeated. Like, 10-0 for the first time since 1992. Like, 1 of 3 undefeated teams left in the sport. That’s an ideal place to be … even if it felt like wearing maroon at Kyle Field felt like the worst place to be for a couple hours on Saturday.

The Aggies will file that one away come Playoff time. If they’re able to build off whatever experience that was on Saturday, the Aggies could be better for it.

For now, though, the only thing that’s undeniable is that there’s no clear way to explain whatever happened in College Station on Saturday.

The post I have no idea what Texas A&M just did other than clinch a Playoff berth appeared first on Saturday Down South.

We’re in the third weekend of November and we’re still waiting on Alabama to hit 4.0 yards per carry against a Power Conference team. Louisiana-Monroe was the only team who allowed Alabama to hit that mark, which is ironic when you consider that this will likely be the worst Alabama run game since the Tide lost to Louisiana-Monroe in Year 1 of the Nick Saban era back in 2007.

Actually, check that. I know that’s usually the default answer for any sort of bad Alabama stat, but it’s not in this case.

Through 9 games, 2025 Alabama squad averaged 111.9 rushing yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry, which still isn’t even sniffing the 2007 squad’s 149.2 rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry.

Let’s take it back a little further.

The last time that the Tide had fewer yards per carry for an entire season was 2006, and the last time that Alabama had fewer rushing yards per game was in 1955. To recap, the last time Alabama had such little ground-game identity was 3 years before the Bear Bryant era began.

That 1955 squad was 0-10. Seventy years later, football has changed a touch. Hence, why the 2025 squad is 9-1 and a lock to make the College Football Playoff, even with that historically ineffective ground game. The question is no longer about whether the Tide can establish the run; it’s about whether Alabama can win a title with this bad of a ground game.

Sure, football has changed. It’s no secret that 21st century passing attacks are more advanced than their 20th century predecessors, which is why we’re even asking this question about 2025 Alabama.

But this would be a historically dreadful ground game among 21st century national champions

Go back to the first 25 national champs of the 21st century and you’ll see what I mean:

• 2000 Oklahoma: 134.6 rushing yards/game, 3.9 yards/carry
• 2001 Miami (FL): 204.6 rushing yards/game, 5.3 yards/carry
• 2002 Ohio State: 191.3 rushing yards/game, 4.3 yards/carry
• 2003 LSU: 185.7 rushing yards/game, 4.4 yards/carry
  • 2003 USC: 155.9 rushing yards/game, 4.5 yards/carry
• 2004 USC: 177.4 rushing yards/game, 4.7 yards/carry
• 2005 Texas: 274.9 rushing yards/game, 5.9 yards/carry
• 2006 Florida: 160.0 rushing yards/game, 4.7 yards/carry
• 2007 LSU: 214.1 rushing yards/game, 4.9 yards/carry
• 2008 Florida: 231.1 rushing yards/game, 5.9 yards/carry
• 2009 Alabama: 215.1 rushing yards/game, 5.0 yards/carry
• 2010 Auburn: 284.8 rushing yards/game, 6.1 yards/carry
• 2011 Alabama: 214.5 rushing yards/game, 5.5 yards/carry
• 2012 Alabama: 227.5 rushing yards/game, 5.6 yards/carry
• 2013 Florida State: 203.1 rushing yards/game, 5.6 yards/carry
• 2014 Ohio State: 264.5 rushing yards/game, 5.7 yards/carry
• 2015 Alabama: 199.9 rushing yards/game, 4.7 yards/carry
• 2016 Clemson: 170.3 rushing yards/game, 4.3 yards/carry
• 2017 Alabama: 250.6 rushing yards/game, 5.7 yards/carry
• 2018 Clemson: 249.3 rushing yards/game, 6.6 yards/carry
• 2019 LSU: 167.3 rushing yards/game, 4.9 yards/carry
• 2020 Alabama: 183.6 rushing yards/game, 5.0 yards/carry
• 2021 Georgia: 191.2 rushing yards/game, 5.3 yards/carry
• 2022 Georgia: 205.3 rushing yards/game, 5.5 yards/carry
• 2023 Michigan: 169.1 rushing yards/game, 4.5 yards/carry
• 2024 Ohio State: 166.4 rushing yards/game, 5.0 yards/carry
• 2025: TBD

(Just in case you were curious, 1999 Florida State won it all after it only averaged 3.4 yards/carry, but to find a national champ who averaged less than 111.9 rushing yards/game, you had to go all the way back to … never. At least there weren’t any such examples for a national champion dating back to 1936. That 1999 FSU team had the fewest rushing yards/game of any national champ at 122.8.)

To nobody’s surprise, none of those 21st century national champs had 111.9 rushing yards/game and 3.6 yards/carry. Go figure that the team with the least amount of ground game production and efficiency among that group was 2000 Oklahoma, who was led by current Tennessee coach Josh Heupel. That team won the BCS National Championship in a 13-2 victory against Florida State, wherein the Sooners had just 36 carries for 56 yards. Heupel threw the ball 39 times and essentially followed the same pass-run balance that OU had all season.

(Some would argue that FSU didn’t deserve to be in that game after losing to fellow 1-loss team Miami, and that the BCS computers were the only thing that prevented the Hurricanes from playing, and likely winning, the national championship, but now isn’t the time to re-litigate that.)

Of those 25 national champs, 15 of them averaged 5.0 yards per carry and 2000 Oklahoma was the lone winner to average less than 150 rushing yards per game. Alabama would need to average 200 rushing yards over the next 7 games to finish with a season average of 150, which seems next to impossible considering the 9-game sample size that we’ve already seen.

Whether you want to put the blame on Ryan Grubb’s play-calling in the Kalen DeBoer offense, the offensive line or the backfield, there are clearly multiple factors for something that’s become an atypical question to ask of the Tide.

Why can’t Alabama run the ball?

“Oof. Can’t (run the ball). Not like, why haven’t they, can they get it done? They can’t run the football at all,” said former LSU running back and 2007 national champion Jacob Hester, who watched the Tide in person last Saturday night in Tuscaloosa. “Their tight ends are struggling a little bit on the edge. Their offensive line is good enough. They’re not the road-graders that they’ve had. Their running backs’ vision is just poor right now. It just is. I hate talking about my own position like that.

“When a run play in the SEC gives you 4, you take 4, you don’t look for 40. It looks like they’re looking for 40 right now … can you change that? Maybe. It’s kinda tough.”

The numbers back that up. It’s not just that Alabama ranks No. 120 in FBS in both rushing yards/game and yards/carry with just 32 attempts per game (No. 109 in FBS). Of the Tide’s 282 rushing attempts, only 1 went for a 30-yard gain … and it was a 56-yard run by true freshman AK Dear in the final minute of a 73-0 win vs. Louisiana-Monroe. There are 13 FBS teams without multiple runs of 30 yards, and Alabama is one of them. Nobody else in that group is a Power Conference team with a winning record. Mind you, that’s a year removed from Alabama leading the SEC with 13 runs of 30 yards, albeit with Jalen Milroe and Justice Haynes, who transferred to Michigan and is now leading Power Conference players with 122.4 rushing yards/game.

Alabama obviously has found a way to overcome those ground game issues in the form of Ty Simpson. When your quarterback is playing at a Heisman Trophy level, it can allow you to do things like beat 4 consecutive AP Top 25 teams without a bye/extra rest for the first time in SEC history, or have the most wins vs. the top 40 of the Sagarin ratings of anybody in the sport (H/T Chris Fallica). Simpson has been everything and then some.

He’s also Alabama’s leader with 13 missed tackles forced as a runner. Not only is Simpson the leader there, but he’s the only Tide player with double-digit missed tackles forced. Just for a little perspective, Kewan Lacy and Ahmad Hardy lead the SEC with 71 and 65 missed tackles forced, respectively. Alabama starting running back Jam Miller, who has battled multiple injuries this season, has 9 missed tackles forced, which ranks No. 33 among SEC players. On the season, Alabama has forced 49 missed tackles in the run game — that’s tied for 12th in the SEC — and nearly half of them (23) have come from non-running backs. Swiss army knife Germie Bernard is 2 away from Miller, and he only has 15 rushing attempts all season.

Perhaps that speaks a bit to Grubb’s willingness to at least try some alternative options in the ground game. Alabama did turn to Bernard to execute a misdirection play for the go-ahead touchdown at South Carolina.

We could expect to see more of Bernard out of the backfield, and maybe even some more William “Refrigerator” Perry-type involvement with 360-pound Kadyn Proctor in short-yardage situations.

But while those unconventional elements can provide a spark, it does feel strange that Alabama can’t truly lean on teams to close a game. The numbers reflect that, too. Simpson leads FBS with 780 passing yards while leading by 1-7 points. Heading into Week 12, Simpson has 61 pass attempts in the 4th quarter, which is a stark contrast from the 2018 Alabama squad that watched Tua Tagovailoa not have to attempt a 4th quarter pass attempt until November.

Times have changed. So, too, has Alabama. Is that for better or for worse? Time will tell.

What’s clear is that if Alabama does wind up as the last team standing, it’ll be the first national champ of its kind. It’d be an ironic pivot from the Saban era, and possibly a sometimes frustrating identity to accept.

But something tells me that if Alabama’s run-game issues don’t stand in the way of a title, that identity will be welcomed with open arms.

The post Can Alabama win a title with this dreadful ground game? Here’s what history says appeared first on Saturday Down South.

LSU legend Jacob Hester joined the show to discuss the vacancy in Baton Rouge, Garrett Nussmeier and SEC running backs.

The guys close with Lad of the Week!

Watch the full episode here:

Subscribe to The Saturday Down South Podcast here, and subscribe to Saturday Down South on YouTube for all the latest video content!

The post SDS Podcast: Week 12! Can Oklahoma & Texas make statements? Jacob Hester talks LSU vacancy, Garrett Nussmeier & SEC RBs appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Last year, Kirby Smart led Georgia to 2 wins against a Texas team who played Ohio State down to the wire in the College Football Playoff semifinals. It didn’t matter that UGA won both games away from home, nor did it matter that Carson Beck got knocked out on a Hail Mary attempt just before halftime of the rematch in the SEC Championship Game. Both times, Smart showed up and beat Texas.

The question heading into Saturday night’s showdown between Texas and Georgia in Athens is obvious — does Smart just own Steve Sarkisian?

You could point to the 2-0 record and say that’s too small of a sample size and that we’re going to need more data before we can make such a declaration. You know, like the declaration that Alabama owns Smart, and a 2-0 record for Kalen DeBoer against Georgia is a sign that it’s not just a Nick Saban thing.

Both coaches would tell you that this year’s team is completely different than last year’s, and previous history is irrelevant. That’s fine. Three wins against Sarkisian in the first 2 years of Texas being in the SEC would be quite the feather in Smart’s cap.

Nobody would’ve made that argument upon Texas’s arrival. After all, Texas infamously had the “we’re baaaaaaaaack” declaration from Sam Ehlinger after the 2018 Sugar Bowl victory against Georgia. That wasn’t under Sarkisian, but he was Alabama’s offensive coordinator in 2020 when the Tide handed Smart 1 of his 7 losses in that matchup.

But those first 2 Georgia-Texas games in the SEC were telling

As Gunner Stockton rallied Georgia back to an overtime victory in the SEC Championship Game last year, Texas was held to less than 100 rushing yards for the 5th time in just 52 games under Sarkisian. Another one of those games came earlier in the year against Georgia, when the Dawgs delivered a historically dominant defensive showing in Austin. In those 2 games, Texas averaged 30 rushing yards and 1.1 yards per carry without a single rushing score. Mind you, that was with a decorated offensive line.

This year, Texas hasn’t been anywhere near as steady as that group. Whether that’s the byproduct of Tre Wisner and CJ Baxter being banged up or just what happens when an offensive line returns 1 starter, well, that’s in the eye of the beholder. Since stepping off the field in Georgia’s comeback win against Texas in the SEC Championship Game, the Longhorns have had 6 more games without hitting 100 rushing yards, including 3 in their 4 true road games this season.

Speaking of those road issues, Texas has 38 points in the first 3 quarters of those 4 games. Hence, why the Horns needed overtime to survive at Kentucky and at Mississippi State. Against a Georgia team that’s also been a bit of a slow starter — UGA hasn’t led at halftime 5 of 7 SEC games — perhaps that won’t surface. Alternatively, Georgia could just pick up where it left off when it went into Mississippi State and bludgeoned the Bulldogs in Davis-Wade Stadium in the exact way that Texas couldn’t. At least not until the 4th quarter.

The good news for Texas is that Trevor Etienne is off to the NFL after he had a combined 5 rushing touchdowns in those victories last year. The bad news for Texas is that Georgia just had its best rushing performance against an SEC foe since 2020, and stopping the likes of Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens could prove to be another daunting task.

Perhaps of equal significance, Stockton is a much better player than the guy who took the field in the second half of the SEC title game matchup last year. He’s not throwing inexplicable interceptions like he did in the 4th quarter of that game, nor is he being reckless as a runner. Stockton looks like a guy who has his legs under him with 10 starts now under his belt. He’s more decisive both as a passer and as a runner, which is why he’s first among SEC quarterbacks with 7 rushing scores and he’s No. 1 among SEC quarterbacks with a 75.8% adjusted completion percentage when under pressure. Hence, why 11 of his 15 touchdown passes have come against the blitz (Arch Manning also has 11 touchdowns against the blitz and has been better in those spots than some realize).

Add it all up and you’ll see a relatively clear path to a Georgia victory. We haven’t even gotten to the part where I mention that Alabama’s win in Sanford Stadium earlier this year marked Georgia’s first loss at home in a night game since 2009. Saturday against Texas will be under the bright lights, and for Sarkisian, his struggles against Georgia could be under a microscope if it’s another Texas loss in which the Longhorns are a walking turnover (UGA forced 4 takeaways in the first matchup and 3 in the second).

It’ll be magnified for a 2-loss Texas team who has been desperately trying to avoid that dreaded 3rd loss, which doomed every at-large team’s Playoff chances last year. It remains to be seen if that’ll be the case for Texas, who could still have a matchup against a potential 11-0 Texas A&M squad to close the regular season.

But if it’s another game in which Sarkisian’s offense looks lost against the Smart defense, questions will be asked. Or rather, a question will be answered.

Smart might just own Sarkisian.

The post Does Kirby Smart just own Steve Sarkisian? We’re 60 minutes from that being undeniable appeared first on Saturday Down South.

At the start of fall camp, Texas A&M posted a slow-motion video on Twitter of Marcel Reed making an on-target downfield throw that was captioned “wait, we thought @Marcel10Reed wasn’t a passer?” I objected. Yes, we are allowed to question Reed as a passer, I wrote. Despite what that video of Reed throwing in shorts without a pass rush told us, ranking No. 15 in the SEC in adjusted downfield completion percentage in 2024 was an area of concern, as was his 4.4 yards/attempt when pressured (2nd worst in the SEC), which also saw him scramble an alarming 25% of the time in those spots.

My rebuttal wasn’t meant to argue the point “I’m out on Marcel Reed.” In that August column, I outlined why he could indeed take another step in Year 2 of Collin Klein’s system, and that the additions of KC Concepcion and Mario Craver could open up a passing game that felt limited throughout a herky-jerky offensive season in Mike Elko‘s Year 1, wherein Reed and Conner Weigman had a tug-of-war for QB1 status. The rebuttal was that there was real data that suggested Reed had strides to be made, and that putting out a social media clip that scoffed at those aforementioned areas of concern felt misguided.

Three months later, the only misguided take that one can have about Reed is that he can’t pass.

Reed isn’t a perfect player, though he led a perfect A&M start that moved past the “8-4” jokes in historic fashion. Spend any time watching A&M’s QB1 and you’ll see that the Year 2 progression is there. The pocket presence, the command, the understanding of the offense, the trusting of the scheme, etc. It’s all been on display. One can scoff at any notion that A&M is winning games despite Reed. The Aggies are 9-0 with their best regular season win total since Johnny Manziel’s Heisman Trophy year in large part because of Reed.

Don’t get it twisted. We’re not doing a Manziel-Reed side-by-side comp, nor are we ignoring the fact that any quarterback who has the same starting 5 offensive linemen all season — A&M is the only SEC team who can say that — is going to be set up for success.

But let’s go back to those aforementioned question marks entering 2025

As in, the downfield accuracy, the throws under pressure, the over-reliance on scrambles, etc.

The downfield accuracy isn’t at Julian Sayin or Joey Aguilar levels. In fact, Reed’s adjusted completion percentage on throws 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage is still near the bottom of the SEC at 38.5%, but that’s still a nice improvement from 27.8% in 2024.

What’s interesting is that if you take away the air yards element and just focus on passes that have gained 20 yards, Reed is No. 5 in the SEC with 35 such completions, which is just 3 fewer than SEC leader Trinidad Chambliss (it’s also 10 more than Reed had all of last season). Why is there such a discrepancy? Craver and Concepcion. By adding 2 guys who can make people miss in space, Reed’s downfield accuracy isn’t as magnified. With players like that, it’s all about being accurate enough for them to gain yards after the catch (YAC). A&M is the only SEC team with 2 players with at least 300 YAC yards, and Craver leads the SEC with 496 YAC yards. In fact, Louisville and Nebraska are the only other Power Conference teams who can claim that feat.

Sure, scheme helps with that. It also helps that Reed has a 70% adjusted completion percentage on intermediate throws (10-19 yards) after he was 60% in that area of the field last year. That’s good for No. 5 in the SEC. Even better, his 138.3 NFL QB rating on those throws is No. 1 in the SEC and No. 3 among Power Conference quarterbacks.

Again, this is what a Year 2 progression looks like:

A Year 2 progression also looks like someone who has trust in the scheme. That means not defaulting to his legs when pressure hits, just like Reed did on that touchdown to Concepcion.

A&M’s offensive line continuity has shown up in the form of a 23.8% pressure rate on Reed’s drop-backs, which is the second-lowest rate among starting SEC quarterbacks. But remember how Reed scrambled on 25% of the drop-backs when he was pressured last year? This year, that number is down to 15.9%. That’s been evident in key spots.

That first score of the game against Mizzou came on 3rd-and-goal when Reed faced front-side pressure from one of the SEC’s top pass-rushers, Zion Young, and he made an on-target throw going to his left to his No. 3 receiver.

A casual fan might look at some of the plays that Reed is making and suggest that he’s simply benefitting from those surroundings. Take that screen pass to Concepcion against Mizzou. A bubble screen wherein Concepcion followed some excellent blocking en route for 6 won’t show up on any QB highlight reel, but that only happened because Reed recognized the blitz pre-snap on 3rd-and-6, so he audibled into that quick-hitting play.

Perfect. That wins games.

That pre-snap recognition got a nice stamp of approval from Elko.

“When we talked in the offseason about him learning what it takes to be an SEC quarterback, all of that stuff goes into it… credit to him for everything that he put in this offseason elevate his game to be able to do things like that,” Elko said on Saturday (H/T Tony Catalina).

To recap, Elko admitted they had conversations in the offseason about what it takes to be a QB1 in the SEC, which further confirms that even his own head coach knew he had some key areas to improve.

Is Reed now elite among SEC quarterbacks when facing pressure? Hardly. He’s a 52.3% adjusted passer under pressure, which is No. 15 in the SEC. But how can you overcome that in those spots? Don’t throw interceptions (he has 0 under pressure), avoid sacks so that your offense doesn’t get behind the sticks (his 8.7% pressure-to-sack rate is easily the best in the SEC) and make clutch throws (his 5 TD passes under pressure rank No. 2 in the SEC).

That’s the beauty of what Reed’s game has become

Everything in this offense has to be respected. The second you forget about Reed as a runner, he can hit 20.3 MPH and take it to the house with his legs.

That 41-yard touchdown run was a big chunk of the career-high 67 scramble yards that Reed had in Brian Kelly‘s final game at LSU. Mind you, that came on a night in which Reed also tied his career high with 9 designed runs, which fueled his career-high 108 rushing yards in one of the most hostile atmospheres in the sport.

What Reed has shown not only in that LSU game, but this year as a whole, is that he’s extremely comfortable playing with a lead. Of equal importance, he’s extremely comfortable throwing with a lead. With a lead of 1-7 points, Reed leads all FBS QBs with 34 first downs as a passer (he had 14 last year), and Ty Simpson is the only FBS quarterback with more passing plays of 15 yards in those spots.

But unlike Alabama, who has yet to run for 4.0 yards per carry against Power Conference competition, A&M can pair those chunk yardage plays in the passing game with a rushing attack that averages 205 yards per contest. Shoot, the Aggies had 220 rushing yards in the second half alone on Saturday against a top-15 Mizzou run defense.

That’s how you become a difficult offense to contain, which perhaps explains why it only fell behind by 8 points once this season (at Notre Dame). So far, Auburn is the only team who held the Aggies to less than 31 points. Including Notre Dame, the Reed-led A&M offense is averaging 36.3 points per game against Power Conference competition. Take away non-offensive scores — Tennessee had 4 of those vs. Power Conference competition — and that’s the best mark in the SEC. Even Indiana, who has the No. 1 scoring offense in America, is averaging 38.3 points per Power Conference game if you take away the non-offensive scores.

That side-by-side résumé with fellow unbeaten Indiana isn’t going anywhere, and likely, neither is the Fernando Mendoza-to-Marcel Reed Heisman Trophy comparison. Reed has earned the right to be on the short list (+750 on BetMGM) with Mendoza. Time will tell if he can become the first A&M player to reach New York since Manziel. Reed already became the first A&M quarterback to lead a 9-win regular season since Manziel’s Heisman season in 2012.

Unlike that magical 2012 season in College Station, though, Reed still has everything in front of him as mid-November nears. First on that list would be doing something that neither Manziel nor any 21st century A&M quarterback got to do. That is, play in a conference championship. It could all come down to a revenge game against Texas in Austin.

Either way, Reed and the Aggies are a virtual lock to make the Playoff (good luck finding odds anywhere on them to earn a bid). They joined 2020 Alabama, 2021 Georgia, 2022 Georgia and 2023 Georgia as the only SEC teams in the 2020s to start 9-0. Three of those teams won a national title, and all 4 of them finished in the top 3 of the AP Poll. A&M hasn’t done either of those things since 1939. Reed’s passing improvement is a major reason why that’s all on the table.

No rebuttal necessary.

The post An appreciation of Marcel Reed and the player I wasn’t sure that he’d become appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Without an upset in the top 10, there wasn’t expected to be a major shakeup. The biggest question was going to be how far Texas Tech moved up and how far BYU moved down after the former took care of business to take control of the Big 12.

Outside of that, though? Well, there were some minor takeaways that could turn into major takeaways soon.

Here were the biggest developments from the second Playoff Poll of 2025:

Texas Tech moving up to No. 6 and BYU only falling to No. 12 suggests the Big 12’s 2-bid hopes are alive

I wondered if the selection committee would have the guts to move Texas Tech up 2 spots to No. 6 ahead of Ole Miss after that drubbing of undefeated BYU. That was the second time we saw the Red Raiders smash a current Playoff Top 25 team (Utah was the other one), and considering the Arizona State loss came with Behren Morton sidelined, it made sense that the selection committee gave Joey McGuire’s squad even more love on Tuesday night.

By surpassing Ole Miss, who has just 1 marquee win (at Oklahoma), the selection committee opened up the possibility of the Big 12 being a legitimate 2-bid league. BYU is the other part of that conversation. BYU stayed ahead of a 1-loss team like Georgia Tech, as well as 2-loss teams like Miami (FL) and Vanderbilt. That feels significant. If BYU and Texas Tech get a rematch in the Big 12 Championship Game, the loser could be safe in the way that SMU was last year when it didn’t get knocked for earning an extra game in the ACC Championship Game.

Not every league had the same takeaway on Tuesday night.

The ACC not having a team ranked higher than No. 15 suggests a 1-bid league is imminent

Brace for it, ACC fans. It’s happening. A 1-bid league feels more imminent than ever after aforementioned Miami came in at No. 15 and Georgia Tech clocked in at No. 16. Shoot, even Louisville got a bad draw by falling 5 spots and coming in behind fellow 2-loss Miami, who lost to the Cardinals at home. The selection committee operates in mysterious ways.

(The irony is that Miami fans argued last week that it was slighted for being ranked 8 spots behind Notre Dame, yet the Canes somehow got the benefit of the doubt with Louisville.)

It’s a strange thing to say about a conference that has depth with 5 teams ranked No. 15-22. The problem is that none of those teams can get a boost like what we saw Texas Tech get by taking down an undefeated team. Georgia Tech can still make a nice push with games against Pitt and Georgia left on the schedule, which could give Brent Key’s squad 3 more opportunities for quality wins.

The ACC’s multi-bid path is dwindling after No. 20 Louisville and No. 19 Virginia dropped from the 1-loss ranks and fell 5 spots near the back half of the top 25.

The SEC’s chaos scenario is in play

What if I told you that the SEC had 7 teams ranked ahead of the highest-ranked ACC team? You’d say that’s pretty favorable that the SEC will get 4 bids. Now what if I told you that among those 7 teams inside the top 14 (No. 3 Texas A&M, No. 4 Alabama, No. 5 Georgia, No. 7 Ole Miss, No. 10 Texas, No. 11 Oklahoma and No. 14 Vanderbilt), there are only 3 matchups left among those teams? Five of them are still alive for the SEC Championship Game, too.

What’s the chaos scenario for Selection Sunday you ask?

• 11-1 Texas A&M
• 11-1 Ole Miss
• 10-2 Texas
• 10-2 Oklahoma
• 10-2 Alabama
• 10-2 Georgia
• 10-2 Vanderbilt

That can still happen. Of course, it would take A&M losing to Texas, who would also have to beat Georgia. It would also involve Oklahoma beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa, which no SEC team has done since 2019 LSU, as well as Vandy taking care of Tennessee in Neyland to close the regular season.

Will that chaos parlay hit? In all likelihood, it’ll be dead by the end of the weekend. But it’s wild to think that it’s even a possibility heading into the third Saturday of November.

And hey, the Group of 5 does exist!

Looking at you, No. 24 USF. A week after the Group of 5 was left out of the Top 25 altogether, USF cracked the rankings as the lone Group of 5 squad. In another instance of head-to-head not carrying as much weight as it probably should, 2-loss USF got the nod over 2-loss Memphis even though the latter has the head-to-head advantage. Make of that what you will. USF obviously has the win at Florida back in Week 2, and the other loss coming at Miami certainly isn’t a deal-breaker for a Group of 5 team.

With USF being slotted in there, there’s a growing sentiment that the winner of The American will get that Group of 5 bid. Shoot, if USF wins out, perhaps it could upend the ACC winner and a Power Conference could get left out of the 12-team Playoff altogether as the 5th-highest ranked conference champ (only the 4 highest-ranked conference champs get auto-bids). That still might be a tall task for USF with Navy and a potential conference title game as the only remaining opportunities to rack up respectable wins.

For the first time, the selection committee acknowledged that the Group of 5 does exist. Whether it carries enough weight to do the unthinkable remains to be seen.

The post Takeaways from the second Playoff Poll of 2025 appeared first on Saturday Down South.

If you’re seeking alternative YouTube TV options for Tuesday night’s Playoff rankings, don’t. It’s not worth it. There are times when it could be worth it, but the Week 12 Playoff Poll won’t be one of them.

Maybe that’s a discouraging thing to say to you, reader of this Playoff prediction column. I don’t care. My objective is to give you the truth.

Last week, I gave you the truth by predicting that Texas and Oklahoma would round out the top 12, and that it would differ from the AP Poll. We had all 12 teams accurately predicted, just not in the perfect order with teams ranked No. 6-9. That’s fine.

This week, we’ll give you the exact top 12 so that you don’t have to watch the rankings show:

12. BYU

After a demoralizing loss to Texas Tech, I tend to think that BYU won’t fall off the face of the earth. Two-loss Vanderbilt and 1-loss Georgia Tech are teams worth watching in this spot, but BYU losing on the road to a top-10 team for its first defeat of the year will provide a bit of grace. The Cougars have that all-important Utah win in the Holy War that should be a buffer of sorts. BYU will likely be tasked with winning the final 3 regular season games, one of which includes a trip to Cincinnati, in order to get into the top 10 before a potential Texas Tech rematch in the Big 12 Championship.

11. Oklahoma

The idle Sooners won’t get a drastic shakeup. They still have 2 wins against teams ranked in the current AP Top 25 and 2 losses against teams ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll. That’s a combination for minimal variance. Beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa to hand the Tide their first conference loss of the season would change that conversation. For now, though, OU will stay locked in just outside the top 10.

10. Texas

Last week’s ranking of Texas over Oklahoma confirmed that the selection committee values head-to-head when it’s convenient. It’s convenient with Texas, who beat Oklahoma convincingly on a neutral site and has that Vandy win. Both of those victories are better than Oklahoma’s, and I’d argue they’re better than any win that Notre Dame has on its résumé. But with the selection committee putting the Irish as the top 2-loss team based on the response after those “quality losses” to start the season, it’s safe to say that’s not changing.

9. Notre Dame

Eight consecutive wins has given Notre Dame the benefit of the doubt in the eyes of the selection committee. Whether that’s justified isn’t up to me. If it were, I would point out that the Power Conference foes that Notre Dame beat are a combined 7-21 in conference play. Again, I’m not in charge of pointing that out, nor am I in charge of pointing out that Notre Dame’s 2 wins away from South Bend came against teams that are a combined 3-16 overall. If I were in charge of that, I wouldn’t have the Irish as the top-ranked 2-loss team.

8. Oregon

Winning at Iowa is no small feat, especially with how nasty those conditions were. That was a hard-fought win against a 6-win team who has, oddly enough, turned into the best thing on Oregon’s résumé. As it stands, though, the Ducks now lack a win against a team that’s in the current AP Top 25. The irony is that beating a ranked Iowa team knocked the Hawkeyes team out of the Top 25. Oregon is still set up well to get an at-large bid, but that first ranking suggested the selection committee isn’t necessarily sold on the body of work because of how that Penn State win aged.

7. Texas Tech

You could argue that blowing out BYU should have Texas Tech even higher than No. 7. Simply taking the Cougars’ spot might not seem significant, but there’s something else worth monitoring with Tech and BYU. If both teams are going into the Big 12 title game with 1 loss and it’s a grudge match, that sets up a likely scenario in which both teams are in. That’s based on last year’s SMU precedent. Even if the Red Raiders are still outside of the top 5-6, that’s a nice silver lining that didn’t feel as likely before the first ranking.

6. Ole Miss

If you’re upset that I’ve got Ole Miss here instead of Texas Tech, remember this. Whatever gap that existed a week ago has narrowed by virtue of Ole Miss facing The Citadel and Tech blowing out a Top 25 team for the second time. And while “quality losses” are a bit overrated, I do wonder if the selection committee will value Ole Miss losing on the road to top-5 Georgia after blowing a 9-point 4th quarter lead is less of a knock than losing to unranked Arizona State, albeit without Behren Morton. It won’t be surprising if Ole Miss gets leapfrogged, but for now, it’s 1 spot ahead of the surging Red Raiders.

5. Georgia

Georgia being sandwiched between Alabama and Ole Miss makes sense considering that’s where you’ll find the Dawgs’ lone loss and best win. Beating Mississippi State like a drum won’t necessarily help the résumé in a significant way, but it will push back on the trend of playing in nail-biters in SEC play. The good news for Georgia is that it likely still has a loss to give. The bad news is that it has a pair of legitimate contenders (Texas and Georgia Tech) still on the schedule, which means nothing is guaranteed.

4. Alabama

Alabama and Louisville are the only teams with 3 wins vs. AP Top 25 squads, which is why the Tide have overcome that horrific loss to Florida State. As we outlined with Notre Dame, winning 8 in a row packs some punch. There’s a level of consistency that the selection committee valued by putting the Tide as the top-ranked 1-loss team. That’ll still be the case after making sure LSU didn’t feed off interim coach energy in Tuscaloosa.

3. Texas A&M

The selection committee told us last week that Texas A&M‘s win at Notre Dame wasn’t quite as good as Indiana’s win at Oregon. That’s fine for the Aggies. They’re still in ideal position at No. 3 after drubbing Mizzou to knock the Tigers out of the AP Top 25. Sure, Mizzou had a true freshman quarterback in his first career start. A&M also racked up 220 second-half rushing yards against a top-15 run defense on the road. The Aggies are 4-0 in true road games and worthy of being in the conversation for the No. 2 spot, but it’s hard to envision the selection committee reversing course after last week’s initial ranking.

2. Indiana

As IU was facing its first defeat of the season against Penn State with an interim coach, you already saw some of those 2024 narratives resurface. Poke holes in the depth of the résumé, if you will, but that win at Oregon got even better with the Ducks winning at Iowa. Indiana likely won’t be moved off that No. 2 line unless it falters before the Big Ten Championship, though if A&M beats Texas in Austin to get to 12-0, those conversations will be had. Until then, the Hoosiers aren’t going anywhere.

1. Ohio State

Let’s not diminish what Ohio State has done. That Texas win has come all the way back around, and while beating Washington and Illinois on the road in convincing fashion won’t necessarily count as wins vs. the current Top 25, that still added some depth to the résumé. Texas remains the only team to keep it within 17 points against Ohio State, which is why the Buckeyes aren’t in jeopardy of losing that top spot if they win out.

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