Across the long evolution of the postseason, as the old pell-mell bowl system begat the Bowl Coalition, which begat the Bowl Alliance, which begat the despised Bowl Championship Series, which begat the 4-team College Football Playoff, which begat the 12-team College Football Playoff, people have moaned and rebelled all the way. They have never stopped. When the current format expands again in the near future, they will go right on griping. The people who love the sport the most have usually griped the loudest. I’ve often been one of them.

Of course, some years are worse than others. Once in a blue moon you get, say, USC and Texas clearly distancing themselves from the pack. More often, though, the discourse mines the sport’s one truly inexhaustible resource: Chaos. The only thing that has changed over time is the border over which the battles are waged.

In fact, take a long enough view, and the annual gnashing of teeth each December begins to look like a time-honored tradition in its own right. From that perspective, the ultimate goal of the Format Wars is not really to create a perfect postseason model that settles all arguments and leaves everyone satisfied, but to vent the inevitable outrage a little further away from where it can really do any lasting damage.

Let me assure you, however upset anyone is over the CFP committee’s decision to include Alabama and Miami in this year’s field at the expense of Notre Dame, it could be a heck of a lot worse, and very frequently has been.

When you have lived through the conflagrations at the top of the polls in 1993, 1994 and 1997; when you have developed strong, unmovable opinions over undefeated teams that have no possibility of meeting on the field; when you have watched a combination of statistical algorithms run by amateurs override the verdict of the traditional pollsters to determine which teams will play in the National Championship Game not just once, but 3 times in a span of 4 years; when you have been confronted with the Gordian knots of 2004 and 2008; when when you have sat through an unwatchable rematch no one wanted with the title on the line; when you have seen head-to-head results and conference championships thrown out the window, and teams with perfect records snubbed at the eleventh hour, and legitimate contenders from outside the power conferences routinely turned away at the door, and spent years looking forward to the day when an actual bracket like they have in literally every other team sport on the planet would finally spare college football from its ritual humiliations … well, rushing to the barricades for the great debate over Who’s No. 10? doesn’t quite pack the same punch. Maybe I’m just getting soft.

I must be, to actually be willing to cut the beleaguered committee some slack. I admit, I’m a little bit sympathetic to the damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t nature of the job, despite its undeniable fumbling of the process along the way. The fact is, no matter where you draw the line or what process you use to do it, the team on the wrong side of that line is obligated to wage a holy war of recrimination. They raised hell when the line was between No. 2 and No. 3, they fumed when it was between No. 4 and No. 5, and they’re openly revolting now that it all comes down to deciding between No. 10 and No. 11. Eleven years ago, it was Baylor and TCU. Two years ago, it was Florida State. Last year, Alabama. This year, Notre Dame. Let the righteous fury commence. ND athletic director Pete Bevacqua wasted no time after Sunday’s bracket reveal deriding the decision as “a farce” and declaring the Irish would refuse all bowl invitations in protest.

Do they have a case? Of course. They always do. In Notre Dame’s case, the Fighting Irish have won 10 in a row, all by double digits, all but 2 of them vs. Power 4 opponents. Their 2 losses came in their first 2 games of the season against teams that eventually made the cut, Miami and Texas A&M, by a combined 4 points. They’re a top-5 team according to virtually every public-facing metric, including SP+, FPI, FEI and Jeff Sagarin. They were ranked in the top 10 in every edition of the Playoff committee’s weekly rankings until the final version on Sunday. (Not for nothing, the Irish were also ahead of Miami throughout that span in both the AP and Coaches’ polls, and still are.)

They remained at least 2 spots ahead of Miami throughout the process, and spent 2 weeks ranked ahead of Alabama before the committee’s bizarre decision to bump Bama back in front of the Irish following a narrow win at Auburn in Week 14. They remained behind Alabama on Sunday despite the Tide’s wipeout loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, and fell to No. 11 behind Miami despite the fact that both the Irish and Hurricanes spent the weekend watching from the couch. I’d be telling the committee where they could shove it, too, if I had any investment in Notre Dame.

But let’s face it: Had Miami and Alabama been on the short end, both were bracing themselves to react in exactly the same way, and with equal justification. Besides ranking in the top 10 in every metric, the Hurricanes beat Notre Dame on the field, and who can argue with a head-to-head? In the end, despite its best efforts over the preceding month, the committee could not. And the Crimson Tide, in spite of their dismal closing argument in Atlanta, had earned their way into that game in the first place by surviving a significantly tougher gauntlet along the way than Miami or Notre Dame. In conference play, Bama became the first team in SEC history to beat 4 ranked opponents on 4 consecutive Saturdays, including arguably the single best résumé line of any team this season in its Week 5 win at Georgia. (It was the UGA win specifically that committee chairman Hunter Yurachek cited on Sunday to justify leaving Alabama at No. 9 while dropping No. 11 BYU following the Cougars’ equally lopsided loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game.)

The Tide’s only loss in conference play came against a Playoff-bound opponent, Oklahoma, by 2 points in a game Alabama dominated statistically. And what kind of precedent would the committee be setting if it punished a team that seemed safely in the field at the end of the regular season for losing a conference championship game, to the benefit of another team that didn’t even qualify for its own conference championship and another that’s not even in a conference? Greg Sankey might have one-upped Notre Dame’s bowl boycott by scrapping the SEC Championship Game as a going concern, if losing it means one of his teams could fall through a trap door as a result.

Three teams, 2 spots, zero possible outcomes that don’t leave heads exploding. I can criticize the committee’s inconsistent, nonsensical route to booting the Irish from the field, and even huff and puff a little bit against the conclusion itself. If I was in the room, I would have argued for excluding Bama on the basis of a) The advanced metrics, all of which rate the Crimson Tide slightly behind both Miami and Notre Dame; and b) The fact that the Tide bookended their season by laying of couple of massive eggs in front of the entire country. They opened by getting their butts kicked at Florida State — still the single worst loss of any bubble team — and closed by getting their butts kicked with the SEC title on the line. The team that got waylaid by Georgia on Saturday was indistinguishable from the one that fell flat on its face in Tallahassee back in August. In between, they made a living of surviving close calls, never dominating. And anyway, it’s not up to the committee to protect the dignity of the SEC Championship Game, or shouldn’t be. That’s on Bama. Losers of conference championship games have routinely dropped in the final rankings every single year of the CFP’s existence.

But that’s easy to say when I was not in the room, and I don’t envy the people who were for being tasked with a no-win dilemma. Nor do I feel the urge to bang the gavel, or declare the system “broken” because it ended up settling on a different flawed option than the flawed option I would have chosen if it were up to me. Notre Dame played 2 games vs. CFP-caliber opponents and lost them both. Beyond the head-to-head comparisons, the Irish won exactly 1 game vs. a team in the committee’s final top 25, a 34-24 win over USC in mid-October. Much of their success in the metrics owes to running up the score on the last-place team in the Big Ten (Purdue), the last-place team in the SEC (Arkansas), the tied-for-last-place teams in the ACC (Boston College and Syracuse), and a 4-8 version of Stanford. Those games accounted for half of Notre Dame’s wins. They ranked behind Alabama in strength of record, a perennial committee talking point, and lagged well behind in any version of strength of schedule. We can have these arguments till kingdom come. Irish fans certainly will be.

Notre Dame has honest beef with the way it was yo-yo’d around the rankings over the past few weeks. The committee can obviously do a lot better explaining its process, or implementing a process, since it’s not clear it really has one. Eliminating the weekly made-for-TV rankings show would be a good start, especially now that they’ve made it abundantly clear just how irrelevant the weekly pecking order is in the final evaluation. The show has never nurtured insight or transparency, only backed the committee into corners, driven conspiracies and lent credibility to cynics who deride the Playoff as the “ESPN Invitational.”

Much of the dire state of the discourse, frankly, has to be chalked up to the tenor of ESPN’s on-air talent, whose analysis is inconsistent, often dim and inescapable. That is out of the committee’s hands. But they don’t do themselves any favors by trotting out a representative 5 times a year who doesn’t seem have to the foggiest clue why the group arrived at many of the decisions it did. The more distance the CFP can put between its selection process and the network that airs and relentlessly promotes it, the better. It can also firm up its criteria, introduce clearer metrics and stick to them, and find a spokesman who is skilled at communicating how all this works to the public, all of which would go a long way toward reinforcing trust that at the very least they’re operating in good faith.

And then, after they’ve done all that, they can brace themselves for the next round of vitriol and angst to arrive right on schedule. An outbreak of cynicism and chaos is not a crisis: It’s the status quo from the moment some bored newspaperman dreamed up the idea of the “national championship” a hundred years ago. It’s the water this dumb, unruly, anachronistic sports swims in. No line has ever been drawn that will satisfy the teams that falls on the wrong side of it that they were treated fairly, and no system has ever been devised that will rank teams with wildly different strengths, weaknesses and schedules with anything like foolproof precision. Every stage of evolution, every quick fix, every tweak is an exercise in fending off the inevitable. Good faith will never be a defense against the next imbroglio. But if the best the powers-that-be can do is move the battle lines to fall between flawed teams whose inclusion is actually debatable, I will take that controversy over the ones it has replaced any day of the week.

Monday Down South Awards Show

The best of the year.

First, we begin with the official Monday Down South All-SEC teams:

Most Valuable Player: Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia

Valuable doesn’t quite do him justice, does it? Pavia is not just the most valuable player in Vandy history: He is arguably as valuable to the ‘Dores as any player has been to any team in the 21st Century, if not much longer. He is responsible for the biggest win in school history; the first 10-win season in school history; the first serious Heisman campaign in school history; and the dawning recognition for the first time in most of our lifetimes that it is possible for Vanderbilt to be at least momentarily relevant in football.

When he portaled into Nashville 2 years ago, he was joining a team coming off its 3rd winless season in SEC play in 4 years. At the time, it wasn’t even necessarily a given that he was going to be the starter. Now, he’s leading a ranked team that remained relevant in the Playoff discussion right up to the end to a traditional Jan. 1 bowl game. Four million people just tuned in to watch the ‘Dores blow out Tennessee in Knoxville. His head coach, squarely on the hot seat B.D. (Before Diego), just signed a 6-year contract extension. Vandy just flipped a 5-star quarterback recruit from Georgia on the eve of signing day. That is a true sentence that I just typed! Everything good that happens in Nashville for the foreseeable is downstream of the energy that Pavia brought to a completely lifeless program.

For all of those reasons, I’m already on the record endorsing Pavia to win the Heisman Trophy. At every stage, a campaign that started out as a lark gets a little closer to becoming a reality. Pavia put himself in the running with a prolific November, virtually locking up a trip to New York as a finalist. His numbers were already within spitting distance of frontrunners Fernando Mendoza and Julian Sayin before Indiana knocked off Ohio State in Saturday night’s Big Ten Championship Game — another incredible sentence to write — which shifted the Heisman betting markets sharply in favor of Mendoza. Sayin’s odds have virtually collapsed in the wake of the loss, leaving Pavia (with respect to Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love) as the only viable alternative to voters who weren’t convinced by Mendoza’s turn in a defensively-driven win over the Buckeyes.

If it’s a question of value, it’s no question. Pavia has accounted for more than 71% of Vanderbilt’s total offense this season, the highest individual share in the SEC. Mendoza has accounted for about 52% of Indiana’s offense. Pavia is the Commodores’ leading rusher, even after subtracting negative yardage on sacks; Mendoza has made little impact as a runner. Pavia almost singlehandedly rejuvenated a program at its nadir. Mendoza joined a stable outfit that, for all of Indiana’s historic suckitude, was clearly on the upswing after crashing the Playoff in 2024. Pavia has put Vanderbilt on the map. That alone makes him a singular figure of his era. If that doesn’t make him the most outstanding player, it’s hard to imagine much more he could have realistically done in his situation that would.

Offensive Player of the Year: Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy

Hardy started out as an overlooked recruit from a speck on the map in rural Mississippi. His only FBS offer was from Louisiana-Monroe. He didn’t fly under the radar for long. 

After 1 year at ULM, he was a consensus Freshman All-American with his pick of destinations via the portal. After one year at Mizzou, he’s just a straight-up All-American, no qualifiers necessary. A compact, 210-pound thumper whose motor never stops, Hardy led the nation in rushing yards per game, generating more than 70% of his 1,560 yards after contact, per PFF. The first tackler had about as much chance of getting him on the ground unassisted as I have of getting Beyoncé’s phone number.

Again, imagine where Hardy would be if not for the portal: Toiling in obscurity in the Sun Belt, facing skepticism about his level of competition entering what will almost certainly be his final year on campus in 2026. Instead, he’s right where he belongs: Atop the list of the most decorated workhorses in America, on the verge of breaking Mizzou’s single-season rushing record.

Defensive Player of the Year: Texas edge Colin Simmons

Simmons’ breakout freshman campaign in 2024 didn’t leave a whole lot of room for growth in Year 2. But in another crowded class of productive SEC edge rushers, he rose to the top due in large part to his versatility. Of course he can get after the passer: Simmons led the league in QB pressures (53), finished a close 2nd in sacks (11) and forced 3 fumbles in opposing backfields, 2 of which led directly to Texas touchdowns. Although he lacks elite size/length at 6-3, 240, his combination of speed, technique, and motor is a scout’s dream, a quarterback’s nightmare, and a ticket to a single-digit draft pick as soon as he’s eligible.

But we knew that already after Year 1. Where Simmons has notably improved is against the run. He was the only SEC defender with PFF grades of 85+ as both a run defender and a pass rusher, and one of only four in the Power 4 ranks. No one on Texas’ roster is a threat to Arch Manning’s status as the Face of the Program, much less a d-lineman. But when the hype machine revs up for the Longhorns next year — and based on their impressive finish against Texas A&M, it’s revving as we speak — Simmons’ name on the other side of the ball deserves to carry just as much weight.

• Honorable mention: LSU CB Mansoor Delane; Texas A&M edge Cashius Howell

Special Teams Player of the Year: Oklahoma kicker Tate Sandell

Sandell, a transfer from UT-San Antonio, was as accurate as any kicker in America, hitting an impressive 23-of-24 field goal attempts in his first season as a Sooner. Only one other player, Hawaii’s Kansei Matsuzawa, finished in the top 5 nationally in field goals made and field goal percentage. For degree of difficulty, however, Standell stands alone. Fifteen of his 23 connections came from 40+ yards, including 7 from 50+ yards, best in the nation and 1 shy of the single-season D-I record from long range. He was also money for a team that would likely not be Playoff-bound without him — despite flashing a little too much thigh for Kirk Herbstreit’s taste, Sandell’s right leg accounted for the winning margins in single-digit OU wins over Auburn, Tennessee, Alabama and LSU. He’s a no-brainer All-American, and apparently a big help to have around the office:

• Honorable mention: Texas punt returner Ryan Niblett

Freak of the Year: Auburn WR Cam Coleman

Plenty of gifted college wideouts through the years have been cursed with mediocre quarterbacks. Few, though, have left the locals quite as frustrated as Auburn fans with Coleman’s failure to achieve orbit the past 2 years in an offense featuring the uninspiring likes of Payton Thorne and Jackson Arnold behind center. On paper, Coleman’s sophomore stat line (56 catches, 708 yards, 5 TDs) is indistinguishable from a run-of-the-mill possession type; none of those numbers ranked in the top 10 in the conference, although certainly not for lack of trying — his 85 targets ranked 4th. Catch him on the right Saturday, and there was no mistaking Coleman for anything less than the most uncoverable wideout in the conference, if not the country. Per PFF, no other SEC receiver had more contested-catch opportunities (20) or receptions (11), which often seemed like the only idea the Tigers had for getting their best player the ball.

Ironically, for an electric athlete known for his occasionally unreliable hands, Coleman’s last touch of the season was a fumble that effectively ended the game in the Tigers’ 27-20 Iron Bowl loss to Alabama. The question now for new coach Alex Golesh is whether it will be his last touch in an Auburn uniform.

One way or another, Coleman is set to make bank in 2026 on a team that, ideally, does not need him to make multiple epic video-game-glitch catches on a weekly basis just to register in the box score. Whether Auburn still has a chance to be that team is TBD. But if Golesh isn’t willing to do whatever it takes to keep him in the fold — up to and including soliciting Coleman’s input/approval in pursuit of a new starting QB — he’ll be well within his rights to find one who is.

Fat Guy of the Year: Alabama OL Kadyn Proctor

A fixture at left tackle from his first day on campus, Proctor entered his junior season as the sport’s resident Paul Bunyan — a specimen whose feats of athleticism at 6-7, 365-ish pounds (depending on the day and the diet) were already approaching mythical status. Once he actually got on the field, it only took a few hours for him to be humbled in a dismal Week 1 outing against Florida State. For that, I singled Proctor out as my first “Dud of the Week.” Slowly but surely, his stock rebounded, aided in no small part by a series of midseason cameos as a short-yardage back and receiver, reportedly as a reward for keeping his weight in check. You know, relatively speaking.

Proctor’s 5 touches on the season yielded 16 yards, 3 first downs, and roughly a couple million retweets, for the record. But his reputation hardly rests on gimmicks. By year’s end, he’d logged 12 consecutive games since the opener without allowing a sack or being flagged for a penalty, per PFF, which graded him as Alabama’s top run blocker and the SEC’s No. 2 overall offensive lineman for the season. Inconsistency notwithstanding, with his raw potential the door remains wide open for Proctor to play his way into the first round at the next level, where a long career has awaited since scouts first laid eyes on him as a recruit.

Most Valuable Transfer: LSU CB Mansoor Delane

A well-seasoned senior transfer from Virginia Tech, Delane made a big first impression as a Tiger, earning national Player of the Week honors in Week 1 after recording an interception, 2 passes broken up and a single reception allowed on 8 targets in LSU’s win at Clemson. After that, opposing quarterbacks had seen enough.

Delane faced just 27 targets the rest of the season, per PFF, allowing a dozen receptions, zero touchdowns and drawing zero flags for pass interference. Even when being ignored, his presence helped LSU lead the SEC in pass efficiency defense, one of the few bright spots in a mostly woeful season in Baton Rouge. Despite the lack of interest in testing him, Delane also tied for the SEC lead with 11 PBUs and 13 passes defensed, emerging as a no-brainer favorite on mock drafts in the process. Barring a stunning turn of events between now and April, he’s on track to be the first corner off the board, snapping a 4-year drought since LSU’s last first-round corner, Derek Stingley Jr., in 2022.

Breakout Player of the Year, Offense: Ole Miss RB Kewan Lacy

The Rebels were in the market for an every-down workhorse, a role they never managed to fill in 2024. Lacy was in the market for a fresh start after failing to crack the rotation as a freshman at Missouri. Another perfect portal match. A virtual unknown in August, he quickly emerged from the pack to lead the conference in touches, touchdowns and missed tackles forced, per PFF, supplying the missing piece of the offense in the process. If a postseason run is in the cards, by the end of it Lacy should be a household name. He enters the Playoff with 1,279 yards — just 289 shy of Quinshon Judkins’ single-season record.

• Honorable mention: Missouri OL Keagen Trost

Breakout Player of the Year, Defense: Auburn LB Xavier Atkins

Atkins started out at LSU, where the coaching staff managed to burn his redshirt in 2024 for the sake of just a handful of snaps. Still facing a crowded depth chart in Year 2, he transferred to Auburn with little fanfare last winter and quickly set about establishing himself as the most productive young ‘backer in the league.

Listed at just 6-0, 210 pounds, Atkins was a sideline-to-sideline presence for the Tigers, finishing as the SEC leader in solo tackles (60), tackles for loss (17) and stops, PFF’s metric for tackles that represent a “failure” for the offense (51). Among full-time linebackers, he also led the conference in QB pressures (25) and sacks (10) as a frequent blitzer. He forced 3 fumbles, and returned his lone interception of the year 73 yards against Texas A&M to set up Auburn’s only touchdown in a 16-10 loss in College Station. Undersized or not, he won’t be sneaking up on anyone in 2026, when he projects as a likely preseason All-American.

Honorable mention: Texas DB Michael Taaffe;

Rookie(s) of the Year: LSU CB DJ Pickett and Alabama CB Dijon Lee Jr.

Pickett and Lee represent the next stage in the evolution of the position: Fluid, full-service cornerbacks who can pass for wing players on the basketball team. Both were rated among the top incoming cornerbacks in the ’25 class; both boast a legitimate 6-4 frame with accompanying wingspan; neither wasted any time making their presence felt in their first year on campus. Pickett made immediate inroads in LSU’s rotation, holding his own opposite Mansoor Delane while holding opposing QBs to a 48.4% completion rate on passes in his direction, per PFF; he picked off 3 of those vs. 1 touchdown allowed at his expense. Lee arrived right on schedule in Tuscaloosa, as well, moving into a regular starting role at midseason and finishing with the top PFF coverage grade among Bama corners; he came down with 2 INTs while allowing a 46.2% completion rate. Get ready to get well-acquainted with their names over the next 2 years before they’re off to the next level.

Best position group: Oklahoma’s front 7

It took 4 years, but the transition from the high-scoring, shootout-friendly teams of the Lincoln Riley era to the defensively-driven, slug-it-out Sooners under Brent Venables is officially complete. The turnaround from basement dweller in 2024 to Playoff team in ’25 was built from the trenches up, primarily with Venables’ own recruits. In the absence of a headliner, the rotation came at opposing o-lines in waves. As a team, Oklahoma ranked among the top five nationally in rushing defense, yards per carry allowed, tackles for loss, sacks, havoc rate, and rushing success rate, holding 6 of 8 SEC opponents below 100 yards on the ground. Eleven Sooners recorded at least 5 TFLs on the year.

Down the stretch, the pass rush was also responsible for a couple of the season’s most dramatic swings plays in wins over Tennessee and Alabama, without which Venables might be entering another offseason on the hot seat. The first, a strip sack returned by R Mason Thomas for an early touchdown against the Vols, instantly reversed the momentum in that game and set the tone for an eventual 33-27 win in Neyland Stadium. The second, a 86-yard pick-6 against Bama, was forced by a blitz that short-circuited the Crimson Tide’s protection, forcing Ty Simpson to uncork an ill-advised throw into coverage with LB Kip Lewis bearing down. That was the first of 3 turnovers in Tuscaloosa (leading to a combined 17 OU points) that sparked a season-defining, 23-21 upset in a game in which the Sooners were outgained by nearly 200 yards. Now they’re due up to face the Tide again in the first round of the CFP, where they will only go as far as their capacity for harassing opposing QBs into game-changing mistakes can take them.

Overachiever of the Year: Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss

A D-II All-American who portaled into Oxford as an afterthought in April, Chambliss was so obscure that, for the first few weeks after he seized the reins as Ole Miss’ starting quarterback, there seemed to be some minor confusion about whether he actually hailed from the Caribbean island nation of Trinidad and Tobago. (He’s from Grand Rapids, Michigan.) Wherever he came from, Chambliss was an instant hit, overcoming his humble origins and diminutive stature to lead the SEC’s No. 1 offense to the Playoff. The Rebels are still waiting to find out out if his appeal for a 5th year of eligibility in 2026 will be approved – and whether he’ll stick around if it is, with open speculation over the prospect of Chambliss following Lane Kiffin to LSU. But they still have at least couple more games to play before they have to worry about that. Which means, Chambliss still has an opportunity to climb into the top 5 on Ole Miss’ all-time single-season passing yards list.

Late Bloomer of the Year: Mississippi State WR Brenen Thompson

Thompson started out at Texas as a blue-chip recruit with track speed and a long queue in front of him for meaningful reps. He transferred to Oklahoma, where he spent 2 years battling a nagging ankle injury. Finally, he found his niche in his final year of eligibility as one of the league’s premier deep threats under his former OU offensive coordinator, Jeff Lebby. Thompson led the SEC in receiving yards vs. Power 4 opponents, averaging a robust 18.8 yards per catch. He also tied for the national lead (along with Ohio State’s Carnell Tate) with 7 receptions of 40+ yards, including the highlight of the Bulldogs’ season, a game-winning bomb against then-No. 12 Arizona State.

Altogether, Thompson’s 948 receiving yards for the year ranks 5th in MSU history, alongside a bunch of other names that have been mostly forgotten outside of Starkville. His might be, too. But he will not have to wonder “what might have been …”

Patrick Willis Award for Yeoman’s Work on a Bad Team: Florida RB Jadan Baugh

Every bad team needs a guy who endears himself to the diehards just by continuing to show up and looking like he wants to be there. For Florida, that was Baugh, a 230-pound sophomore grinder who kept grinding all the way to the end. He hit the century mark in all 4 of the Gators’ wins, including heavy-duty outings in October wins over Texas (27 carries for 107 yards) and Mississippi State (23 for 150), as well as a Herculean effort in the finale against Florida State: 39 carries, 264 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a fond place in local lore for delivering a satisfying end to an otherwise miserable slog of a season. With that, he became Florida’s first 1,000-yard rusher in a decade, and one of the first names on the list of guys the incoming coaching staff needs to make a serious effort to keep.

Moment of Zen of the Year

Thanks for reading another season of Monday Down South!

The post Monday Down South: More Alabama Playoff drama, plus 10th annual MDS Postseason Awards appeared first on Saturday Down South.

It’s a little bit ironic, isn’t it? In a season defined by unprecedented parity, razor-thin margins, and the rapidly shrinking gap between the league’s traditional heavyweights and the nouveau riche, who’s left standing in the end? Of course, it’s Bama and Georgia.

Oh, did you really think it was going to break any other way? Texas A&M and Ole Miss were so close to crashing the party. Are you new around these parts? The days when the Tide or Dawgs (or both) could confidently book their trip to Atlanta in mid-October might be firmly in the past. But they still boast 2 of the deepest, most stacked rosters in the college game, and if the results these days occasionally feel more like a lucky roll of the dice than outright dominance, well, the dice are still weighted toward top-end talent. That is one aspect of this matchup you can rest assured has not changed.

Twelve games in, Georgia is a bit of an enigma. In fact, you might as well extend that timeline back to last year, when a decidedly mortal UGA outfit managed to claim its 3rd conference title under Kirby Smart despite 2 regular-season losses and a litany of close calls along the way. The ’25 team is similarly nondescript. Again, the Bulldogs are solid across the board, but not elite or necessarily even all that consistent in any particular area. 

If they have a defining quality, it’s their ability to absorb an initial blow and adjust to the type of game they find themselves in on any given Saturday. They’ve trailed at some point in 7 of their 8 wins vs. Power 4 opponents, and in the 4th quarter in 3 of them. The offense has risen to the occasion in shootouts (Tennessee, Ole Miss), and the defense has held up its end in slugfests (Auburn, Georgia Tech). Their most complete outing against a worthy opponent, a 35-10 win over Texas in Week 12, was a 14-10 game at the end of 3 quarters before Georgia pulled away in the 4th. QB Gunner Stockton has delivered when they’ve really needed him to, and been content to putter along in game-manager mode the rest of the time; no individual skill player ranks in the top 10 in the SEC in yards from scrimmage, with only RB Nate Frazier cracking the top 30; the once-formidable pass rush, strangely dormant over the first 2 months of the season, only began to flash its potential in November. While the rest of us have waiting for a glimpse of the finished product, the Dawgs have made a living of figuring it out as they’ve gone along.

Lord knows Alabama hasn’t been living any less dangerously. At least Crimson Tide games have followed a more or less identifiable script. In SEC play, Bama is outscoring opponents by exactly a touchdown per game, 26.1 to 19.1, and every conference game has fallen roughly within the margin of error of that exact score. Excluding a pick-6 touchdown against Tennessee, the offense has accounted for somewhere between 20 and 30 points in all 8 SEC games, while the defense has allowed between 14 and 24 points in every game except a 20-9 win over LSU in Week 11. 

Not coincidentally, the only blemish on the conference slate, a 23-21 loss to Oklahoma in Week 12, is the only one in which the biggest swing plays swung against them. Alabama was minus-3 in turnover margin against the Sooners, the giveaways leading directly to 17 of OU’s 23 points. In every other SEC game they’ve been even or in the black.

Unlike Georgia, whose Playoff status is secure either way, Alabama is squarely on the bubble with a loss. The committee demonstrated last year that it is not inclined to punish the loser of a conference championship game to the benefit of a team that was watching from home: Texas and Penn State dropped just 1 slot apiece in the weekly CFP rankings following competitive losses in the SEC and Big Ten title games, respectively, and SMU dropped only 2 spots after its last-second loss in the ACC Championship, preserving the Mustangs’ place as the final at-large team in the field over a gang of fuming 3-loss teams from the SEC. This year, however, Bama has no margin for error. 

As it stands, the Crimson Tide are No. 9 in the latest CFP rankings, jumping Notre Dame for, uh, reasons this week after narrowly escaping their biennial upset bid at Auburn. The Tide had spent the previous 2 weeks behind the Irish (who have won 10 in a row) on the heels of the Oklahoma loss. The distinction is crucial, because the way the bracket is shaping up, the top 10 is the cutoff for at-large bids: With 2 slots reserved for lower-ranked conference champs, the team that occupies the No. 10 position in the final rankings will claim the last at-large ticket.

What will it take for Alabama to remain on the right side of that line? If the Tide win, of course, they’ll vault in the pecking order and claim the SEC’s automatic bid, relegating Georgia to an at-large. The only question then is whether they’ll rise high enough to secure a first-round bye. On the other hand, a loss that drops them to 10-3 would give the committee cover to make any move it felt justified to make. Bama’s opening-day flop at Florida State only looks worse in hindsight and remains arguably the worst loss of any team on the bubble. BYU, currently ranked No. 11 with an 11-1 record, can punch its ticket with an upset over Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game, knocking the Red Raiders into the at-large pool and the Tide out. If Bama and BYU both lose on Saturday, it would leave the lane wide open for the committee to elevate No. 12 Miami to No. 10, thereby avoiding the looming controversy between the Hurricanes and Notre Dame altogether by ushering them both in. 

Point being, the committee is under no obligation to defer to Alabama, as a brand or as the ostensible top seed in the SEC Championship Game. They still might – it’s a powerful brand, and a convincing enough performance even in defeat against Georgia could be enough to hold off the teams nipping at their heels. Given the contentious state of CFP politics at large, the prospect of bouncing one half of the SEC title game from the field at the eleventh hour is a can of worms they’d surely be reluctant to open. But, just like last year, at the end of the day the Tide have no one to blame for their predicament but themselves. Their résumé includes an albatross of a loss at FSU; another loss in a game that, on paper, they had no business losing against Oklahoma; and multiple close, sloppy wins over sub-.500 opponents. At no point have they inspired visions of a vintage Bama outfit at its inevitable best.

Still, here they are, all of their goals intact and in control of their fate. Nobody knows what the committee is inclined to do, but there is still one sure-fire way to erase all doubt: Win Saturday, and take the decision out of the committee’s hands.

When Alabama has the ball

Can Ty Simpson thread the needle again? Simpson was the indisputable MVP of Bama’s September win in Athens. At that point, the Tide were still less than a month removed from the debacle in Tallahassee, and had yet to wash off the stink of that game despite a string of blowout wins over scrubbier opponents in the meantime. By halftime against the Bulldogs, Simpson had the whiff of a first-rounder. Operating from consistently clean pockets (see below), he put on an exhibition of precision passing, carving up UGA’s secondary for 192 yards, 6 3rd-down conversions and 2 touchdowns in the first half alone. He added a 3rd touchdown as a runner en route to a 24-14 halftime lead.

In hindsight, that pristine first half might have been the high-water mark of Simpson’s season. (At least, so far.) Alabama held on to win despite putting up a goose egg on the scoreboard in the second half, eventually converting an outrageous 13-of-19 3rd-down attempts in the process of draining the clock. Since, Simpson has lived just this side of the border between good and great while rarely crossing it. A Heisman frontrunner throughout October, his stock steadily declined in November along with his efficiency. He struggled with downfield accuracy in a defensively-driven win over LSU; committed two costly turnovers under duress in the loss to Oklahoma, including a pick-six; and averaged just 3.5 yards per attempt in a skin-of-the-teeth escape against Auburn, a season-low by a mile. Across all three games, he turned in a mediocre 128.0 passer rating and connected on just 5-of-17 on attempts on 20+ air yards.

Meanwhile, Georgia has not been nearly as vulnerable on the back end. The secondary was a pressing concern coming out of the first Bama game, especially coming on the heels of an even more flammable outing at Tennessee in Week 3. In 8 games since, the Bulldogs have allowed 5 touchdown passes and 6.0 yards per attempt, good for a 113.2 efficiency rating — a standard-issue number for a typical Kirby Smart defense. Opposing quarterbacks in those games (including Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss, Texas’ Arch Manning and Georgia Tech’s Haynes King) are 7-for-34 on attempts on 20+ air yards.

Given time, Simpson has already proven his ability to keep the sticks moving against this defense once. If the Bulldogs can keep the lid on, though, it will be a serious test of his decision making and accuracy to do it twice. Without the benefit of an explosive play or two, that’s a lot of pressure for one arm to bear.

Can Georgia turn up the heat? Simpson owed much of his success in the first meeting to his protection. Per the film eaters at Pro Football Focus, he enjoyed pristine pockets more or less from start to finish, facing pressure on just 9 of his 41 drop-backs. The Bulldogs barely laid a hand on him, finishing with zero sacks and only 4 hits. (They were technically credited with a sack, but it came on a trick play that resulted in WR Germie Bernard getting dropped behind the line, not Simpson.) Bama’s o-line, much maligned after the opener, played about as well as it could play in one of the toughest environments in the sport.

But getting to the quarterback has been an issue for Georgia all season. The Bulldogs rank 111th nationally in havoc rate and 116th in sacks, dead last in the SEC and on pace for the lowest sack total in Smart’s tenure, by far. The team’s most productive pass rushers for the season — CJ Allen, Chris Cole and Raylen Wilson — are all off-ball linebackers who generate pressure primarily as blitzers and spies when the QB exits the pocket. Despite the usual abundance of blue-chip talent up front, no Georgia edge rusher or d-lineman has more than one sack to his credit.

The encouraging news (unless you’re an opposing quarterback) is a notable uptick in pressure rates over the past few weeks. The Bulldogs finished with 3 sacks in a Week 11 win at Mississippi State, a season high, and matched that number the following week against Texas, pressuring Manning on 41.3% of his drop-backs, per PFF. Last week, King was under duress of 44.8% of his attempts, going down once. Junior edge rusher Gabe Harris Jr., a nonentity for the first 2 months, had a dozen QB pressures in November; hyped freshman Elijah Griffin, a freakish interior DL in the Travon Walker mold, had 11 — 5 of them coming in a breakout game against Texas. Griffin recorded his first career sack in Week 13 against Charlotte.

Blitzing Simpson did not work in the first meeting: Georgia sent extra rushers on nearly 50% of his drop-backs, per PFF, with little to show for it except a couple of touchdown passes at their own expense. But beating the blitz has not necessarily been a strength throughout the season. Both of Simpson’s killer turnovers in the Oklahoma game were the result of a zone blitz look that he said later he failed to recognize pre-snap and his o-line failed to pick up. And Bama’s running backs have been sketchy in protection, with PFF citing them for a combined 16 pressures and 8 sacks allowed (!) as a group. One way or another, the Dawgs cannot allow Simpson the luxury of a clean pocket from which to pick them apart again.

Can Alabama run the ball at all? Bama’s ground game has been a sorry state of affairs. The Tide rank 100th or worse nationally in rushing yards per game (103), yards per carry (107), EPA per rush (98), and rushing success rate, where they come in a dismal 130th out of 136 FBS teams. (At least they’re not quite as bad as LSU, at No. 133.) Their longest “rushing” play in the first meeting against Georgia was a backward pass to an offensive lineman that gained 11 yards. We are a long, long way from the Nick Saban-era teams that built their offensive identity around running the ball at will.

They are coming off their best statistical outing against a real opponent in the Iron Bowl, where they ran for 177 yards (excluding sacks) on 5.1 per carry. Simpson played a bigger role than usual in that effort, running for a season-high 50 yards on seven carries. But the lion’s share of the output was courtesy of senior RB Jamarion Miller, who had one of his better games with 83 yards on 5.5 per carry. But Miller — who was already playing hurt since returning from a dislocated collarbone he suffered in August — went down in the 4th quarter and left on crutches, leaving his status for Saturday in doubt.

Backups Daniel Hill and Kevin Riley have averaged a combined 3.3 yards per carry in SEC play. Georgia’s defense has allowed 3.3 yards per carry in SEC play, 3rd-best in the league despite generating the fewest negative yards on sacks. Whatever kind of living the Tide manage to eke out to ease the burden on Simpson will go a long way.

Key matchup: Alabama WR Isaiah Horton vs. Georgia CB Daylen Everette. Horton has generally been relegated to third-wheel status in Bama’s receiving rotation behind Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams. At this point in the season, though, he might be the last fully functioning wheel left. Bernard has been less than 100% with a nagging injury; Williams was a no-show against Auburn, earning zero targets; and tight end Josh Cuevas is among the starters who will be on the shelf in Atlanta. Horton was the closest thing to a go-to receiver in the Iron Bowl, winding up on the receiving end of all three of Simpson’s touchdown passes, including the decisive score on 4th-and-game late in the 4thquarter.

Horton was also Simpson’s favorite target in the first meeting against Georgia, coming down with 5 catches for a team-high 65 yards and 1 TD. Most of that success came at the expense of Everette, whom PFF cited as the cover man on 3 of Horton’s 5 catches; all 3 went for first downs, including the touchdown, resulting in a season-low 48.0 coverage grade. That’s one of three scoring passes Everette has allowed in what has been a mildly disappointing senior campaign. A lockdown effort on Saturday would come at exactly the right time for both his team and his stock.

When Georgia has the ball

Can Georgia run the dang ball? The first time, the answer was yes. The Dawgs piled up 231 yards rushing (excluding sacks) on 7.5 per carry. Even subtracting the long gain, a 43-yard run by WR Dillon Bell on an end around, the Dawgs broadly won the matchup between the tackles. The headliner of that game was redshirt freshman Chauncey Bowens, a standard-issue, 225-pound Georgia thumper who popped off against the Tide for 119 yards on a dozen carries. If it hadn’t come in a losing effort, it was the kind of breakout night that might have briefly made him a household name across the league.

Bowens hasn’t disappeared from the rotation, but he has taken a backseat down the stretch to sophomore Nate Frazier, who spent most of the September meeting on the bench following a 2nd-quarter fumble that set up an Alabama field goal. Back in his coach’s good graces, Frazier had a big November, finishing as the team leader on the ground in each of the past 4 games; that included a career-high 181-yard outburst at Mississippi State and a 108-yard effort in last week’s win over Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs haven’t relied on a “feature back” since D’Andre Swift, but at this point it is safe to say Frazier has established himself as first among equals.

The question mark this weekend is in the middle of the offensive line. Starting center Drew Bobo (son of offensive coordinator Mike Bobo) has been ruled out for Saturday, and possibly for the rest of the season, due to a leg injury that sidelined him for the 2nd half against Tech. Prior to the injury, Bobo was the Dawgs’ highest-rated run blocker, per PFF. His replacement, redshirt freshman Malachi Oliver, struggled in relief, posting a 46.8 run-blocking grade and drawing murmurs for a number of errant snaps. (Although no disasters.) The offense immediately bogged down after Bobo’s exit, punting on 4 of its 5 2nd-half possessions and settling for a field goal on the 5th.

You can’t chalk that up entirely to the backup center. But the o-line had been enjoying a rare stretch of continuity since midseason with the return of veteran Earnest Greene III to the lineup at right tackle, and if Bobo wasn’t the most imposing member of the front, depth-wise he was probably the one the Bulldogs could least afford to lose. Oliver will be lined up on Saturday opposite Bama’s massive senior nose tackle, Tim Keenan III, who was limited in the first matchup by an ankle injury that had sidelined him up to that point. Keenan described the battle in the trenches this week as both “one for the centuries” and “the mismatch of the game.” Guess which quote got Georgia’s attention!

Can Gunner Stockton challenge Bama downfield? In 3 years since Bobo’s return as play-caller, Georgia’s offense has relied a little bit more on screen passes each season. This year, it’s among the most screen-heavy attacks in America, with nearly a 3rd of Stockton’s total attempts falling behind the line of scrimmage, per PFF. The intended receiver on most of those attempts is shifty USC transfer Zachariah Branch, who has more targets (78), receptions (68) and receiving yards (691) than any pair of teammates combined. Branch’s average depth of target: 3.3 yards.

Since we’ve never seen Stockton operating in any other system, it’s difficult to tell to what extent that’s a reflection of his skill set, as opposed to Bobo’s preference for “get it to my playmakers in space” gadgetry. Given the opportunity, though, he is certainly capable of making a defense pay for allowing one of his receivers to get a step. The week before the first meeting against Bama, with Georgia trailing at Tennessee and facing a gotta-have-it 4th down late in the game, Stockton connected with London Humphries for a touchdown on one of the prettiest throws of the year. Against Bama, he was 2-for-4 on attempts of 20+ air yards, including a 38-yard TD pass to a wide-open Colbie Young after Young cooked his defender on a slant-and-go. (The cover man on that play, Domani Jackson, has since been demoted to part-timer in favor of 5-star freshman Dijon Lee Jr.) And 1 of the 2 misses, memorably, was a downfield dime that freshman Talyn Taylor let slip through his hands late in the 3rd quarter:

Although Stockton is completing just 34% of his downfield shots on the year, per PFF, that rises to nearly 50% if you factor in a half-dozen drops. Georgia’s receivers have not been nearly as butterfingery as last year’s group, which led the nation in drops; in fact, Stockton enjoys one of the lowest drop rates (5.7%) among SEC starters. Then again, a large share of the passing game has been deliberately set to easy mode. Every now and then, it pays to remind the secondary that he’s willing and able to let it rip.

Key matchup: Georgia OT Earnest Greene III vs. Alabama Edge Yhonzae Pierre. Greene didn’t play in the first meeting due to injury. Pierre was a nonfactor. Since, both have lived up to the hype as future pros in the making. Greene, coming off a disappointing 2024, hasn’t allowed a sack or QB hit this season in 7 games in the lineup. Pierre, a former 5-star in his 3rd year on campus, hit a power-up around the start of October, going on a midseason tear in which he was credited with 25 pressures, 4 sacks and 3 forced fumbles in a span of 5 games.

He has been quieter since the LSU game, generating a combined 4 pressures against Oklahoma and Auburn. Bama badly needs him at his game-wrecking best on Saturday: The only other reliable pass rusher, LT Overton, is one of multiple players on the shelf due to “illnesses, medical issues, whatever you want to call it,” per Kalen DeBoer.

Special teams, injuries and other vagaries

Georgia’s Peyton Woodring is one of the most bankable kickers in the country, connecting on 15-of-16 field goal attempts on the season and 57-of-64 for his career. He has range, going 5-for-8 over the past 2 seasons on attempts of 50+ yards. This year, Woodring’s leg is responsible for the winning margins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech, against whom he was a combined 9-for-9 in games decided by a combined 18 points. The Dawgs trust him as much as a college kicker can be trusted.

Alabama’s relationship with Conor Talty is, well, a little salty. In his first season as the primary kicker, Talty is just 13-for-20 on field goals, missing his only attempt from 50+ yards in the opener. He was memorably caught chewing out his long snapper following a costly miss in the eventual loss to Oklahoma — the snap was a little high, but the holder got it down cleanly, for the record — and a week later was briefly benched amid a chorus of boos following a chip-shot miss against Eastern Illinois. He was back against Auburn, connecting on both field goal attempts against the Tigers from 45 and 29 yards, respectively. The decision to go for it on 4th down with the game on the line late rather than send Talty out for what would have been an easy go-ahead field goal attempt probably had nothing to do with him. Probably. Given the Tide’s uneasy history with kickers in big games, they’re not taking anything for granted.

The punters: Boring. Georgia’s Brett Thorson, a 25-year-old Australian, is so boring he’s allowed a grand total of 12 returns on 109 punts over the past 3 years.

Zachariah Branch has not made as much impact in the return game as Georgia probably hoped for a guy who was an All-American return man at USC, where he took both a punt and a kickoff to the house as true freshman in 2023. Georgia is among the teams that has largely abandoned returning kickoffs as a concept, routinely conceding touchbacks. Branch has been taking more chances on punts lately after fair-catching everything for most of the season. At any rate, he remains a perennial “if you kick it to this guy your scholarship is revoked” guy regardless of how long it’s been since he actually took one to the house.

Most of the key injuries have already been covered, the most notable being Drew Bobo for Georgia and Jam Miller and LT Overton for Alabama. One more to keep an eye on: Alabama OL Kam Dewberry, who was listed a questionable with an undisclosed injury. Dewberry, a transfer from Texas A&M, has been a mainstay in his first season in Tuscaloosa at left guard; in his absence, that role will most likely fall to 5th-year utility man Geno VanDeMark, who has continued to play significantly since being demoted from starting right guard at midseason.

Bottom line …

Georgia is a 2.5-point favorite, but this is the part where I invoke Kirby Smart’s woeful head-to-head record vs. Alabama, now at 1-7 overall, 0-3 in the SEC Championship Game, and 0-2 vs. Kalen DeBoer. At this point, that’s a pretty halfhearted plot line: When the lone victory comes in the national championship game, the curse has been lifted. Every UGA/Bama game is a heavyweight fight that comes down to which side lands the last punch.

Georgia probably feels like it should have won the first game, one in which it pitched a shutout after halftime and significantly outgained the Tide on a per-play basis. The Bulldogs have made a habit over the past 2 seasons of absorbing their opponent’s best shot in the early going, then overcoming the deficit in such methodical fashion it seems routine. Alabama succeeded (barely) in staving of the surge largely by keeping the ball out of the Dawgs’ hands, converting 3rd downs at a historic clip and racking up an 11-minute advantage in time of possession; Georgia’s offense averaged 6.7 yards per play but ran just 53 plays. Despite putting up a goose egg in the second half, Bama’s offense still finished all 5 possessions in UGA territory, including the final clock-killing drive that involved a pair of 3rd-down conversions to prevent giving the Bulldogs the ball back. That, along with a pivotal 4th-down stop in the red zone earlier in the 4th quarter, is the reason the Tide still have a season to salvage.

These teams are much too evenly matched to pretend there’s some secret to divining the outcome beyond a coin flip. There’s no home-field advantage; both quarterbacks have been money at the end of close games; both defenses, if not quite the juggernauts they used to be, remain among the best in the conference. Both teams are consistent in their own not-always-reassuring way. The main thought that I have about the outcome of this game is the sense of absolute dread at the discourse that will follow if Alabama loses, throwing the Playoff bubble into even further chaos. Between Miami and Notre Dame, at least 1 worthy team is already virtually guaranteed to be left out in the cold. Adding the Crimson Tide to the pool of potential snubs — for losing on a weekend when Miami and Notre Dame didn’t even play — must be high on the committee’s list of worst-case scenarios.

I’ll take Ty Simpson in the clutch, if only to deliver us all from that terrible fate.

Prediction: • Alabama 29 | Georgia 27

Scoreboard

Week 14 record: 7-3 straight-up | 6-4 vs. spread
Season record: 106-22 straight-up | 59-59 vs. spread

The post Ultimate SEC Championship Preview: Can Kirby Smart solve his Alabama curse? appeared first on Saturday Down South.

1. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt

Diego Pavia is a lock for the Heisman ceremony after a full-throttle November surge. Can he actually win it?

Before Saturday, I would have said not a chance. As recently as 2 weeks ago, he was still a distant 4th place in the Heisman betting odds and very much on the bubble to make the trip to NYC at all. At that point, the SEC candidate with juice was Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed, fresh off the leading the Aggies’ buck-wild comeback over South Carolina. Two of the 3 Vandy games voters were most likely to have watched were both losses, to Alabama and Texas roughly a month apart. (The other was a Week 8 win over a visibly collapsing LSU.) The loss in Austin doomed the Commodores to spend November on the fringes of the Playoff chase, where they have remained. Meanwhile, Pavia’s 2 best games down the stretch, gonzo outings against Auburn and Kentucky, unfolded on the relative obscurity of the SEC Network.

Then came the Dores’ 45-24 romp at Tennessee, a hit in every column. Blowout win. Ranked, name-brand rival, on the road. Prominent position in a plum time slot. Two historical milestones: The first 10-win season in school history, punctuated by Pavia breaking Vandy’s single-season passing yards record. And another fat stat line for Pavia: 268 yards passing, 165 rushing, 2 touchdowns. As a team, Vandy hung more yards and points on the Vols than any opposing offense in 3 years, and more than any opposing offense in Neyland Stadium since Alabama’s legendarily stacked attack in 2020. On social media, you could almost feel the momentum for his campaign gaining steam in real time. A lot of people who’d never got around to updating their image of Pavia as the scrappy overachiever who’d had his 15 minutes after last year’s upset over Alabama suddenly clocked him as a real contender. Why not him?

And really: Why not? This year’s race is not very compelling, historically speaking. The frontrunners throughout the second half of the season, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, are exactly what you’d expect from a boring Heisman race: A couple of freshly-scrubbed quarterbacks on teams entrenched atop the polls throughout the second half of the season. Both are efficient, largely pocket-bound technicians who consistently hit their marks; neither is any more of an awe-inspiring athletic specimen than the famously overlooked Pavia. They have had their moments: Mendoza leading a dramatic, game-winning drive at Penn State; Sayin throwing 3 touchdown passes in the snow to end the Buckeyes’ losing streak against Michigan. But they have not exactly captured America’s imagination along the way — at least, not yet.

The case for Sayin, especially, is largely on paper, where he leads the nation in most of the relevant efficiency stats, including Total QBR, pass efficiency and passing success rate. He’s on pace to set the single-season FBS record for completion percentage, connecting on just shy of 79% of his attempts for the year. He’s the nation’s highest-graded passer and overall quarterback per the film eaters at Pro Football Focus. For voters clued in to the metrics, Sayin looks like the clear favorite heading into this weekend’s showdown with Mendoza in the Big Ten Championship Game. But even on paper, he is not running away with it:

Beyond the numbers, though, one thing Sayin does not have is a compelling backstory. He is the baby-faced product of a well-oiled machine: The latest in an assembly line of blue-chip Ohio State quarterbacks dropping dimes to blue-chip Ohio State receivers behind a blue-chip offensive line operating in cruise control against overmatched Big Ten opponents. He has yet to encounter a significant deficit or find himself in a shootout opposite far and away the nation’s best defense, one allowing a meager 7.8 points per game. Between the opener against Texas and the finale at Michigan, how many Ohio State games this season were even worth tuning in to watch? With their internal clocks set for a 16-game slog, the Buckeyes left the distinct impression against Michigan that their real season is just beginning. And it’s hard not to come away with the impression that, as impressive as Sayin has been in his first year as a starter, a lot of other guys could have them in the same position that they’re in. Because a lot of other guys before him actually have.

You can’t quite say the same thing about Mendoza, who is having the best individual season in Indiana history at the helm of the best team in Indiana history. Barring a disaster against OSU this weekend, he’s going to be the Hoosiers’ first Heisman finalist since RB Anthony Thompson was runner-up in 1989. But he is not singlehandedly responsible for putting the program on the map. Mendoza portaled into a stable situation. Indiana was already on the upswing when he arrived last winter, coming off a stunning Playoff appearance in 2024 in coach Curt Cignetti’s first year on the job. The guy he replaced, Kurtis Rourke, finished 9th in last year’s Heisman vote, putting up very similar numbers in the same system before going on to become a 7th-round draft pick. The scouts like Mendoza a lot more, projecting him as a likely first-rounder, and potentially a candidate to go No. 1 overall. As far as his role in Indiana’s offense, though, he’s accounting for just 51.7% of the total output for an attack that averages nearly as many yards per game rushing (229.8) as passing (254.1).

The guys Diego Pavia replaced at Vanderbilt, the interchangeable tandem of AJ Swann and Ken Seals, combined to go 0-25 as starters vs. SEC opponents. Between them those guys routinely ranked dead last in these rankings for the better part of 4 years running. Coach Clark Lea once defended leaving one of them in the game (it doesn’t matter which one) to finish a blowout loss because “he gave us a chance to punt.” That was in November 2023, with Lea facing the firing squad at the end of a winless campaign in conference play, his second in three years. A few weeks later, Pavia arrived with zero fanfare from New Mexico State along with his offensive coordinator at NMSU, Tim Beck. Two years later, the Commodores are basking in the glow of a 10-win season, an offense that ranks in the top 10 nationally in yards and points per game, and sustained relevance in the Playoff race. Pavia is personally accounting for 71.2% of that output, the highest individual share in the SEC and significantly higher than Sayin or Mendoza. They just humiliated their in-state rival on national TV. Lea just signed a 6-year contract extension. Vanderbilt — Vanderbilt! — just flipped a 5-star quarterback recruit from Georgia.

None of that is possible, or even thinkable, without Pavia, a singular figure in the sport who has done as much to elevate his program as any player in the 21st Century, at least. He has made the quintessential doormat watchable, relevant, and, finally, a destination. His stats are worthy. His David vs. Goliath trajectory from obscurity to overachiever to bona fide star is compelling. His local impact might be unprecedented. Whatever success Vanderbilt goes on to have in the future can be traced directly to the energy he brought to the ‘Dores at their lowest point. How many players in your lifetime can stake a realistic claim to elevating a historical backwater out of the muck? Maybe Robert Griffin III at Baylor. RG3 won a Heisman. Pavia should, too.

Of course, Sayin and Mendoza will have the final word in their epic collision in the Big Ten title game while Diego is watching from home with the rest of us. Either way, the winner of a 1 vs. 2 showdown just hours before ballots are due is going to be very hard to deny, even if he looks pedestrian in the process. Ohio State and Indiana rank 1-2 nationally in scoring defense as well as in the polls. It might take a true defensive slog to give voters who haven’t made up their minds permission to consider the unorthodox candidate. Ultimately, though, the numbers and the politics are beside the point. Again, Pavia’s numbers are viable and competitive. But they don’t matter as much as what his career has meant for college football in an era of obscene spending and deep cynicism about the future of the sport. This is still a game where a zero-star, 5-foot-nothing juco scrub with the world’s biggest chip on his shoulder can emerge from the wilderness and get effin’ turnt against an 8-figure roster. When you consider where Pavia started, where he is now, and what it took to get there, the fact that he is on the stage at all should be all the proof necessary that he is the most outstanding player in 2025.

Last week: 1⬌

2. Gunner Stockton, Georgia

Stockton was a borderline nonentity in the Bulldogs’ win over Georgia Tech, finishing 11-for-21 for 70 yards in a 16-9 snoozer. He holds at No. 2 this week for 2 reasons: 1), his stellar 86.0 QBR rating for the season, good for 5th nationally; and 2), his season-defining performances in UGA’s biggest wins over Tennessee (92.3 QBR), Ole Miss (96.9) and Texas (94.5). Stockton has raised his game when the situation has required it, despite sometimes looking like a quarterback from the 1950s when it hasn’t. Every time out now falls into the former column, beginning with this weekend’s SEC Championship collision against Alabama.

Last week: 2⬌

3. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

With his head coach’s baggage hanging over the proceedings, Chambliss turned in arguably his best game of the season in the Egg Bowl, finishing with season highs for passing yards (359), touchdowns (4), QBR (93.3) and pass efficiency against an FBS opponent (195.2). It might not be possible to throw a football 35 yards with more atomic precision than his first-quarter touchdown strike to Harrison Wallace III:

Chambliss playing his best ball entering the postseason is good news for the Rebels’ chances of advancing in the CFP. Better news: Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. will be back to call the plays after leaving aboard the plane that ferried Lane Kiffin from Oxford to Baton Rouge on Sunday amid an outpouring of vitriol from Ole Miss fans. Weis might not be the most popular guy in the building, but his feel for the offense is one of the most important ingredients in the team’s success, and his voice on the headset should ensure at least some degree of continuity amid the chaos. From a game-planning standpoint, at least, the Rebels should look like the Rebels.

Last week: 5

4. Ty Simpson, Alabama

If you were surprised by the decision to forego a go-ahead field goal at the end of Saturday’s 27-20 win at Auburn, Bama fans were not – or shouldn’t have been. Simpson has specialized in the 4th-quarter dagger, especially on the road. His gutsy touchdown pass to Isaiah Horton was only the latest in a series of clutch 3rd- or 4th-down conversions that clinched each of the Tide’s previous road wins at Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina.

If you need one play to clinch a game on ice, Simpson might be the guy on this list you most want with the ball in his hands. The uneasy part as Bama’s Playoff fate hangs in the balance is just how often he’s found himself in that position.

Last week: 4⬌

5. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M

If Reed’s value wasn’t obvious before, the collective lump in the Aggies’ throats when he went down with what initially appeared to be a serious injury against Texas made it clear: The prospects of this team making a serious postseason run in his absence are grim. Fortunately for A&M, Reed went off under his own power and quickly returned to the game on the next series, limping slightly but still mobile. Unfortunately, he went on to throw 2 interceptions and post season lows by far for yards per attempt (5.6) and efficiency (97.3) in a 27-17 loss. In addition to extending their losing streak against Texas, the loss cost the Aggies a shot at their first SEC championship and a first-round bye. But if it ensures Reed is 100% for a first-round game in College Station, getting bounced from the SEC title game could turn out to be a blessing in disguise.

Last week: 3

6. Arch Manning, Texas

You gotta hand it to Steve Sarkisian: The man is an effective propagandist. Full-court press notwithstanding, though, I’m not very sympathetic to Texas’ case to crash the Playoff with a 9-3 record. Yes, the Longhorns’ trio of quality wins over A&M, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt are impressive. And no, their opening-day loss at Ohio State should not be held eternally against them. However! Their midseason flop at Florida should be, and a 25-point loss at Georgia in Week 12 was more proof that they have not come as far on the field as they have in their rhetoric. In addition to their 3 losses on the road, the ‘Horns’ other 2 trips outside the state of Texas were down-to-the-wire overtime escapes against a pair of also-rans, Kentucky and Mississippi State, that very easily could have gone the other way. Sarkisian has referenced the fact that Texas outgained Ohio State in Columbus. Well, the Longhorns were outgained by more than 200 yards themselves in Lexington, and trailed by 17 points in the 4th quarter in Starkville.

Their overall point differential for the season (+118) is significantly narrower than any other bubble team. They rank 22nd in SP+, well below any other bubble team. If how you play matters as much as who you play, Texas has no Playoff case in a crowded field.

All that said, Lord help me, folks, I think I’m back on the bandwagon in 2026. One of the true parts of the argument is that Manning ended the season on an undeniable upswing. November wins over Vanderbilt, Arkansas and A&M represented his 3 best outings of the year in terms of QBR; he accounted for 10 touchdowns in those games with zero interceptions. After a shaky first half against the Aggies, he was in his comfort zone in the second, improving his accuracy and repeatedly moving the sticks with his legs. (It helped that Texas’ conventional ground game actually making some headway for a change.) Even factoring in a mediocre night in the loss to Georgia, anyone with eyes could see he was a more confident and productive quarterback down the stretch than he was when sirens were going off over his performance earlier in the year. The surrounding cast, a question mark for much of this year, is likely to return virtually intact. If he looks the part in whatever bowl game the ‘Horns land in, brace yourself for another offseason of Arch Madness.

Last week: 7

7. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee

Tennessee embraced Aguilar in the wake of Nico Iamaleava’s departure like a jilted lover on the rebound. For a guy most SEC fans had never heard of before the season, Aguilar arguably exceeded expectations. Still, in the end he failed to lead a win over an opponent that finished with a winning record and went out with a whimper in a 45-24 loss to Vanderbilt. The Vols just dropped out of the Playoff rankings after 22 consecutive appearances dating to 2022. So just how enthusiastic are Vols fans about the prospect of another season with this guy atop the depth chart?

It’s not out of the question. Aguilar, a 24-year-old, 7th-year senior, recently added his name to a lawsuit spearheaded by Diego Pavia that would force the NCAA to end its policy of counting JUCO seasons against a player’s 4-year eligibility clock. Aguilar, who spent 4 years in the California JUCO ranks from 2019-22 (including a 2020 season canceled by COVID), has already benefited once from the same 1-time waiver that allowed Pavia to return to Vanderbilt. Now, he’s seeking a 4th year in D-I, and 8th overall. “I guess we will see,” Aguilar said after the loss to Vandy. “I’m not sure.”

With no timetable for a decision on Aguilar’s eligibility and no obvious heir apparent already on the roster, Tennessee could look to the portal for a quick fix. More intriguingly, there’s also the gem of the incoming recruiting class, 5-star Faizon Brandon, who’s expected on campus next month. If he is who the rankings says he is in the spring, by the time Aguilar’s fate is decided it might already be an afterthought.

Last week: 6

8. John Mateer, Oklahoma

There are 2 ways to look at Oklahoma’s latest escape against LSU. One is alarm: Mateer was picked off 3 times in a must-win game for the Sooners’ Playoff hopes, a losing proposition for a team that is only in the race in the first place due to a +6 turnover margin in its previous 3 November wins. The other is acceptance: Winning ugly is just how this team rolls. Mateer was picked off 3 times and the Sooners still won, 17-13, on another stellar afternoon for the defense. All 4 entries in Oklahoma’s ongoing, 4-game winning streak have been dismissed as ugly or unsustainable in one way or another, yet they have sustained it all the way to an apparent Playoff bid. If they hold at No. 8 in the final committee rankings — there is no reason to think they won’t — they’ll host a first-round CFP game. They can’t go on surviving multiple giveaways a game against a Playoff-caliber opponent, obviously. Short of that, though, there is no mandate for Mateer to revive his injury-shortened September Heisman campaign. If he’s less than perfect, well, what else is new?

Last week: 8⬌

9. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

Sellers has been noncommital about his future, sticking to some version of “when it’s time to make a decision, I’ll make a decision” for the past few weeks. The time is nigh. If the next level beckons – his physical gifts alone likely ensure Sellers is at worst a Day 2 NFL Draft prospect – there’s probably not much South Carolina can do to persuade him. If he’s open to returning to campus, a couple factors will likely weigh heavily on whether it will be as a Gamecock. One is who Shane Beamer chooses to fill the vacancy at offensive coordinator after firing the scapegoated Mike Shula at midseason. The other is how much Carolina is willing to invest in upgrading the supporting cast, particularly a ramshackle, routinely outmanned offensive line. Sellers has spent too much of his tenure as QB1 under duress, winding up in the business end of 75 sacks over the past 2 years – easily the most of any FBS quarterback in that span.

Last week: 10

10. Beau Pribula, Missouri

Mizzou gave Pribula’s arm the weekend off, calling on him to drop back just 10 times in a 31-17 win at Arkansas. He got in on the action with his legs instead, contributing 101 yards (excluding sacks) and a touchdown to a 378-yard rushing day for the offense as a whole. Per PFF, Missouri is the first SEC team with 3 different 100-yard rushers in the same game since Ole Miss in an October 2022 win over Auburn.

Thus ends a cromulent but relatively unremarkable year for Pribula, whose most memorable feat was returning to the lineup to close out the season less than a month after being carted off with a fractured ankle. He was 7-0 as a starter against opponents that finished with a losing record, 0-3 against winners, and fell squarely in the middle of the pack statistically. Presumably he will be back as QB1 in 2026. But first he should ask for a raise like the one they just gave his head coach, Eli Drinkwitz.

Last week: 11

11. Taylen Green, Arkansas

Green spent most of the season putting up numbers in a bunch of shootout losses. He ended it on a sustained slide, eventually splitting reps with an understudy while costly turnovers mounted and production plummeted. Over the Razorbacks’ first 8 games, Green averaged just shy of 350 total yards and accounted for 23 touchdowns. In November, he failed to crack 250 yards in any game and accounted for just 4 TDs (3 of then rushing) as his passer rating declined by 50 points. 

That’s it for Green, a 5th-year senior who never quite fulfilled his Kaepernick-like potential. He wouldn’t be the first mediocre college quarterback to sneak into the later rounds of the draft based on his combination of size and mobility, but he has some work to do over the next few months to bring the scouts around. Meanwhile, redshirt freshman KJ Jackson settles in as the de facto frontrunner in 2026 until his competition arrives via the portal.

Last week: 9

12. Kamario Taylor, Mississippi State

Their team lost, but Mississippi State fans were vindicated in the Egg Bowl by Taylor’s long-overdue emergence in his first career start. A local product with all the tools, Taylor gradually became the focus of a base with not much else to look forward to other than the highest-rated QB recruit in school history finally supplanting 6th-year vet Blake Shapen. Saturday was the day, and Taylor seized it, accounting for 178 yards passing, 173 rushing, 2 rushing TDs, and a handful of highlight-reel runs that left no doubt about his status as a rising star in 2026.

It should have been Taylor’s offense the moment Shapen threw a game-losing pick to a defensive tackle with the Bulldogs within range of the winning field goal at Florida in Week 8. They might not have won any more games with the rookie, but at least the slog to the finish line would have been a lot more interesting.

Last week: n/a

13. Ashton Daniels, Auburn

Daniels acquitted himself well in a down-to-the-wire loss in the Iron Bowl – or would have, if his receivers could hold on to the ball. Altogether, 6 Auburn players combined for 7 dropped passes, per PFF, tied for the most drops by any team in an FBS game this season in the PFF database. Daniels’ lone interception was an accurate throw that caromed off his target’s hands. Then there was the game-ending fumble in the final minute by his best receiver, Cam Coleman, on what might have been Coleman’s last touch as a Tiger. (That was 1 of 5 Auburn fumbles on the night, including a muffed punt, but the only 1 recovered by Alabama.) It’s interesting to think about how the upset bid might have turned out with an extra application of Stickum.

Like everyone in this section of the list, Daniels’ future is uncertain. Although he essentially took over as the starter for the entire month of November, he only played in 4 games, preserving a redshirt and a 5th year of eligibility. If he spends it at Auburn, though, he’ll be a longshot to keep the job. The heir apparent, 5-star freshman Deuce Knight, went ham in his only extended appearance against FCS Mercer in Week 13, a sneak peek at his potential. Speculation is also rampant that the incoming head coach, Alex Golesh, might bring along his star quarterback at South Florida, dual-threat specimen Byrum Brown, who joined the rare 3,000-yards passing/1,000-yards rushing club in 2025. With 23 career starts (the first 20 coming at Stanford), Daniels would certainly be in demand enough to land a starting job somewhere further down the food chain. If he stays, he’ll likely have settle for going back to being the steady veteran insurance policy. Given how well he played that role this year, Auburn might be willing to make it worth his while.

Last week: 13⬌

14. DJ Lagway, Florida

After a rough sophomore campaign – rough is putting it mildly – Lagway does not sound like a guy looking for a way out. “I’m a Florida Gator and happy and blessed to be here,” he said after the Gators’ 40-21 win over Florida State. “That’s all I care about — the logo, the brand. The University of Florida has done so much for me and my family.”

There you have it.

Look, there’s no spinning this season as anything but a disappointment. In a handful of games, it was an outright disaster. Nobody is forgetting about the time he threw 5 interceptions at LSU or got benched in a blowout loss at Kentucky. In spite of everything, though, if he’s healthy and all-in, Lagway’s stock may be salvageable. His upside has never been in doubt. He rarely had the benefit of an intact receiving corps. (Notably, his best game, a Week 6 win over Texas, was one of the few in which he did; true freshman Dallas Wilson, in particular, balled out against the Longhorns in his first appearance in a Gators uniform, only to opt for a medical redshirt a few weeks later. Wilson and fellow freshman Vernell Brown III are both stars in the making.) The precocious gunslinger who showed such enormous promise as a freshman in 2024 is still in there somewhere. If new coach Jon Sumrall and his staff manage to bring him to the surface, there is no reason Lagway can’t still turn out to be the guy he was supposed to be yet.

Last week: 16

15. Cutter Boley, Kentucky

As of Saturday, Boley was all in on returning to Kentucky in 2026, telling reporters after the Wildcats’ wipeout loss at Louisville “this is definitely where I want to be.” Less than 48 hours later, he was “trying to find the best place, wherever that may be” in the wake of Mark Stoops‘ dismissal as head coach. Kentucky wasted no time introducing Stoops’ successor, Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein, a Kentucky native who played quarterback at Louisville. Stein wont be full-time in Lexington until the end of Oregon’s Playoff run, but sorting out where Boley fits into the new plan (or doesn’t) will be one of the first orders of business for all parties.

Last week: 14

16. Michael Van Buren Jr., LSU

Van Buren has said in no uncertain terms that he intends to remain in Baton Rouge, but based on his audition he’s an unlikely candidate to stick as QB1 under Lane Kiffin. In 3 starts in place of the injured/disgruntled Garrett Nussmeier, he averaged just 5.2 yards per attempt for an attack that averaged just 16.3 ppg against Arkansas, Western Kentucky and Oklahoma. A portal addition is inevitable; the only question is whether there will be any pretense of a competition in the spring.

Last week: 15

• • •

The post Final SEC QB Rankings: Hand Diego Pavia the Heisman appeared first on Saturday Down South.

So you’ve bought yourself a coach …

Four SEC teams entered the weekend with a vacancy in thr big chair. By Sunday afternoon, 5 teams had a new head coach. Caveat emptor:

LSU: Lane Kiffin

Lane Kiffin spent the hours following Ole Miss’ Egg Bowl win over Mississippi State consulting with Nick Saban and God. They told him to take the money and run.

Let’s not mince words here. Kiffin’s decision to bail on his team for a hated rival barely 24 hours after the Rebels secured their first Playoff berth was an insult to his players, a middle finger to everyone who invested in his success in Oxford, and a mockery of college football’s postseason. No, it’s worse. It’s a mockery of the idea that the point of the game is to win, rather than to get rich.

Sure, Kiffin has always had a reputation as a mercenary. But even by the low, low standards of journeyman coaches always in search of the next bag, abandoning a team that just punched its ticket to compete for a national championship might be new rock-bottom for the profession. Ole Miss embraced him despite his sketchy past, raised its game to attract next-level talent, dug deep to give him everything he needed to build a winner in the NIL/portal era, and actually succeeded. Ole Miss, for the first time in college football’s modern era, has a puncher’s chance to win big.

Kiffin’s response? Thanks, but no thanks. Not worth finishing, not worth seeing through to the end, y’all go ahead without me. Good luck with all that. I’ll just be over here, counting my money and making the same old speech about all the hypothetical championships I intend to win at some indeterminate point in the future, while ignoring the actual championship that is within sight of a program I’ve spent the past 6 years building toward this exact moment. Now that the time has come, sorry guys, it turns out I really don’t think you’ve got what it takes to go all the way. To everyone who wrote a check to turn this pipe dream into a reality, wow, I didn’t actually think it would work! But now that it has, well, the checks over here are marginally larger. So. I’ll be seeing you.

I admit, I kinda fell for the maturity bit. You can talk yourself into believing almost anything about a guy who’s winning. He’s lost weight, he’s doing yoga, he has a dog. Healthier and happier than ever. Just loving life in the Sip. Underneath that thin veneer of Hallmark Channel Marty Smith schmaltz, though, Lane was just Lane, a little older but still entitled, his antennae always tuned still toward the next opportunity. The same Lane who once skipped out on Tennessee in the middle of the night. Who, even before the midnight flight from Knoxville, was fired as head coach of the Oakland Raiders for “disgrac(ing) the organization” in his year-and-a-half on the job. “He conned me like he conned all you people,” his boss, then-Raiders owner Al Davis, said at the time, in what might have been the most lucid moment in the last decade of his life. Almost every job Kiffin has held has ended with someone saying more or less the same thing.

I wonder amid the triumph of Getting Their Guy if any LSU fans look at the situation at Ole Miss and imagine themselves on the other side. Kiffin is a fine coach, obviously. Respected offensive mind. Aggressive recruiter. Proven winner (except when he’s not). All things considered, probably the best coach LSU could have realistically hired in this cycle. He has never done anything at this stage of his career that the last guy hadn’t done before he accepted a king’s ransom to leave his well-appointed position for Baton Rouge, visions of a national championship dancing in his head. We know what happened to him. But that was the last cycle. If you’re setting out to break spending records in December 2025, Kiffin is certainly at the top of the list of guys who might actually say yes.

On some level, though, Kiffin’s messy exit from Oxford — the latest in his pattern of messy exits across nearly 2 decades — has to raise a pang or two of doubt. Could that be us in a few years? His only rings are as an assistant. Is he really as committed as he says to winning a national championship? If that was true, wouldn’t he still be where he was, where his now-former team is in the midst of playing for a championship as we speak? Kiffin is easy to like, as long as he’s winning. But when the music stops, he has never left anywhere he’s been satisfied or wishing he’d stuck around a little longer. Who knows? Maybe LSU, finally, is that special place where he finds whatever it is he hasn’t been able to find elsewhere, whether it’s a ring or something else. If it’s not in Baton Rouge, where would he even begin to look next?

Ole Miss: Pete Golding

Under the circumstances, promoting Pete Golding from defensive coordinator to permanent head coach was the best decision Ole Miss could have made. Not necessarily because of any overriding faith in his long-term potential in the job — the 41-year-old Golding is a wild card who has never been a head coach at any level. But the Rebels are not really thinking about how it might end in a year or 2, or 3, or whenever. Right now, his promotion accomplished 2 immediate goals for the upcoming Playoff run: It represents continuity, and by avoiding the interim tag it reassures players that Golding himself doesn’t have one foot out the door. That might not amount to stability, but it’s a start.

First order of business, after talking players off the ledge and out of the portal: Filling out the staff ASAP. Kiffin’s exit some significant gaps, none more so than at play-caller; offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. was among the assistants who followed Kiffin to LSU. Whoever fills that role has some very big shoes to fill. But the important thing at this point is getting past the initial drama, getting back to whatever now qualifies as normal, and getting into CFP prep as soon as possible. Once the players are back in their comfort zone on the field, everything else becomes background noise.

Florida: Jon Sumrall

Did Florida fire Billy Napier just to hire the 2025 version of Billy Napier? On paper, kinda: Like Napier, Sumrall (currently head coach at Tulane) is straight from a successful run at a G5 school in Louisiana, and also has some experience as an SEC assistant. Sumrall’s record over 4 years as a head coach at Troy and Tulane (42-11) is nearly identical to Napier’s in his 4-year tenure at Louisiana (40-12) when he made the move to Gainesville 4 years ago. There are distinct Napier vibes.

Can anyone promise that Sumrall is not the next Napier? Of course not. But such superficial comparisons don’t amount to much. The bottom line is that Sumrall has won as big at Troy and Tulane as it’s possible to win at those schools. His 2 years at Troy yielded the best winning percentage there since the program moved up to the FBS level at the turn of the century. His winning percentage at Tulane ranks there No. 2 since World War II, behind only Tommy Bowden in 1997-98. The Green Wave are the only Group of 5 team ranked in the latest CFP rankings, and are on the cusp of a likely Playoff berth with a win on Saturday in the American Championship Game against North Texas. (Sumrall has already committed to coach the Wave through the Playoff, if they make it, a choice Florida supported.) It’s the 4th time in as many seasons his team has played in its conference championship game.

The list of coaches who have successfully made the transition from mid-major ranks to the SEC in the past 25 years is short. The name at the top: Urban Meyer, who came to Gainesville from Utah in 2005. (The Utes were obscure upstarts in the Mountain West at the time.) Is that a more exciting comparison? “Somewhere between the next Billy Napier and the next Urban Meyer” might be the most honest projection for a first-time SEC head coach you will ever read.

Auburn: Alex Golesh

Alex Golesh, a Russian immigrant who moved to the U.S. as a child, has taken the time-tested route from successful SEC assistant to successful rebuilding job and back to the SEC as a head coach. Tennessee fans remember him well as the Vols’ offensive coordinator in 2021-22, Josh Heupel‘s first 2 seasons in Knoxville, which yielded 2 of the most productive attacks in school history. The 2022 team led the nation in total and scoring offense, ended a 15-year losing streak vs. Alabama, and made a sustained Playoff push before QB Hendon Hooker tore his ACL late in the season. He imported the fast-paced Tennessee system to USF, where the ’25 Bulls rank No. 2 nationally in total offense and No. 4 in scoring.

One of the big questions following the announcement of Golesh’s hire at Auburn was whether he would be accompanied by his star quarterback, Byrum Brown, who has a 5th season of eligibility available in 2026. A 6-3, 230-pound specimen, Brown is among the most productive dual-threats in the country — he leads all G5 quarterbacks in Total QBR, and all FBS quarterbacks in rushing yards (not including sacks). The caveat: His skill set overlaps with that of dynamic freshman Deuce Knight, the gem of Auburn’s 2025 recruiting class and heir apparent for the starting job after going ham on an FCS defense in his first career start a couple weeks back. Either guy atop the depth chart projects as an upgrade over Auburn’s quarterback situation at any point since Bo Nix transferred to Oregon. Managing to keep both would be a major coup, although not as big a coup as keeping Cam Coleman.

Arkansas: Ryan Silverfield

At one point last week, the Hogs thought they were getting Golesh. After those reports fell through, they settled for Ryan Silverfield, another “I dunno, seems fine” hire from the G5 ranks coming off a 6-year stint at Memphis. Silverfield’s record won’t inspire parades greeting his arrival. Both of his predecessors, Justin Fuente and Mike Norvell, parlayed winning records at Memphis (a historical rarity) into plum jobs in the ACC, at Virginia Tech and Florida State, respectively. Silverfield inherited a stable program from Norvell, his former boss, and posted a slightly lower winning percentage. His teams finished .500 or better every year, including 10-win seasons in 2023 and ’24, but didn’t claim a conference championship or seriously contend for the G5 slot in a major bowl game. This year, the Tigers started 7-1 — beating Arkansas along the way — climbing as high No. 22 in the AP poll with an American title and potential Playoff bid in its sights, then lost 3 straight to end the regular season.

Silverfield began his coaching career as a high school senior and has coached at every level from high school to the NFL. Appropriately for Arkansas, he’s spent most of his career coaching the o-line. He’s respected as a pro who’s not going to say anything out of pocket. In other words, he’s about as nondescript as they come. TBD whether his tenure in Fayetteville moves the needle.

Salute to Stoops

Kentucky pulled the plug Sunday on the most successful coach in school history, Mark Stoops, on the heels of a 41-0 embarrassment at Louisville. Frankly, it was overdue after years of steadily diminishing returns. The loss on Saturday clinched back-to-back losing seasons in Lexington for the first time since 2014-15, days the Wildcats hoped were long behind them. After a brief upswing in early November, they were blown out in their last 2 games against Louisville and Vanderbilt by a combined score of 86-17.

As a rule, most coaching tenures end badly, even the good ones. In Stoops’ case, although he’d earned the right to go out on his own terms, those terms were onerous: The school owed him a $37 million buyout, to be paid in full within 60 days of termination. (He adjusted the timing after the fact, by the way.) Asked about the possibility he would resign following Saturday’s loss, Stoops responded “zero chance,” a final act of defiance before the curtain came down. He will get his money, but in payouts spread out over years, not as a lump sum.

It was hard to watch at the end, but then, Stoops’ teams were usually hard to watch at their best, too. That was by design: A defensive coach with limited access to top-shelf skill players, the Wildcats forged an identity in the spread era by being resolutely anti-spread, building around the line of scrimmage and embracing a slow, grinding style of play that attempted to drag every game into the mud. The best quarterback he ever had was a converted wide receiver, Lynn Bowden Jr., who started taking direct snaps as an emergency Wildcat QB in 2019 and went on to break rushing records despite rarely putting the ball in the air. That suited the Stoops ethos. He won 10 games in 2018, a miracle, and again in 2021, a mark only 2 other coaches in UK history had hit before him. (One of whom was Bear Bryant.) Over 13 years, he coached in and won more games in Lexington than anyone else. He goes out 2 games over .500 for his tenure, making him the first Kentucky coach to leave with a winning overall record in more than 6 decades.

At some point, people stopped asking, “when does basketball season start?” and started showing up. For at least a little while there, going to Kentucky was a legitimately hostile SEC road trip, especially after dark. (Ask Dan Mullen and Ed Orgeron.)

Stoops never beat Georgia or Alabama, or came close to winning the old East Division. With rising expectations and resources, he relented post-pandemic to modernizing the offense in an effort to take the next step, bringing in an NFL coordinator to update the passing game and splurging on pro-style quarterbacks in the portal. Both the coordinator (Liam Cohen) and the quarterbacks (Will Levis and Devin Leary) went on to the next level, but the offense never took off. Stoops’ last 4 teams were a combined 9-23 in SEC play, nearly as bad as the listless program he inherited in 2013. The next coach will have significantly more money, better facilities, and a more engaged fan base at his disposal, but face just as steep a climb relative to the rest of the conference. The search is getting off to a late start, too.

With Stoops out, the new dean of SEC coaches is Kirby Smart, now in year 10 at Georgia. No other active coach was in his job prior to the pandemic. Not a lot of guys in this profession last 13 years in the same place. The Stoops era got stale, but when it was good, Kentucky has rarely been better.

Overpriced Drink

Meanwhile, amid the comings and goings, Missouri extended Eli Drinkwitz‘s contract (again), raising his salary to an eye-watering $10.75 million a year through 2031. If you just choked over that number, join the club. 

No offense to Drinkwitz, who seems like a normal guy with a perfectly cromulent record at Mizzou, including a couple of 10-win seasons in 2023 and ’24. But let’s be real here, folks. You’re shelling out close to $11 million a year for a coach who’s 26-24 in SEC play, has not sniffed a Playoff berth – much less a championship – and cannot count a single needle-moving victory over one of the conference’s heavy hitters in 6 years? What are we doing here? The closest Mizzou has come to a “big” win in Drink’s tenure is a 14-3 decision over a demoralized, shorthanded version of Ohio State in the ’23 Cotton Bowl. The ’25 team got off to an encouraging start, but was quickly reminded of its place in the pecking order with an 0-4 record vs. ranked opponents. The ’24 team was 0-3 against ranked opponents. Since when does reliably winning the ones you’re supposed to en route to the Music City Bowl fetch 8 figures? Am I losing my mind?

Granted, Drinkwitz was a recurring name in the coaching carousel, and his bosses felt compelled to do whatever it took to keep him happy and in the fold. OK. At some point, though, if a rival is willing to write a blank check to a guy who has been (let’s face it) a slightly-above-replacement-level coach and saddle him with the championship-or-bust expectations that come with it, maybe it’s time to wish him well and let that be their problem. Programs who pay exorbitant salaries to meet those kinds of expectations don’t give coaches contract extensions for hovering around the fringes of the top 25. They fire them. Missouri obviously isn’t holding Drinkwitz to anything like a championship-or-bust standard. So what is it paying for?

Then again, take that for what it’s worth coming from a humble blogger who still naively toils in a world where money is real. Based on the Monopoly-money contracts we’ve seen doled out over the past few cycles, most of the guys in charge of spending it left that kind of poverty mindset behind long ago. The numbers just go up, that’s what numbers do.

The inevitability of Georgia vs. Alabama

Alright, on to the actual games. A full preview of the SEC Championship rematch between Alabama and Georgia is on the way later in the week. In the meantime, a few initial thoughts:

First, in a season defined by unprecedented parity, razor-thin margins, and the rapidly shrinking gap between the league’s traditional heavyweights and the nouveau riche, who’s left standing? Of course, it’s Bama and Georgia. Did you really think it was going to break any other way? Are you new around these parts? The era when the Tide or Dawgs (or both) could confidently book their trip to Atlanta in mid-October might be firmly in the past. But they still boast 2 of the deepest, most stacked rosters in the college game, and if the results these days occasionally feel more like a lucky roll of the dice than outright dominance, well, the dice are still weighted toward top-end talent. That is one aspect of this matchup you can rest assured has not changed.

Twelve games in, Georgia is a bit of an enigma. In fact, you might as well extend that timeline back to last year, when a decidedly mortal UGA outfit managed to claim its 3rd conference title under Kirby Smart despite 2 regular-season losses and a litany of close calls along the way. The ’25 team is similarly nondescript. Again, the Bulldogs are solid across the board, but not elite or necessarily even all that consistent in any particular area. 

If they have a defining quality, it’s their ability to absorb an initial blow and adjust to the type of game they find themselves in on any given Saturday. They’ve trailed in 7 of their 8 wins vs. Power 4 opponents, and in the 4th quarter in 3 of them. The offense has risen to the occasion in shootouts (Tennessee, Ole Miss), and the defense has held up its end in slugfests (Auburn, Georgia Tech). Their most complete outing against a worthy opponent, a 35-10 win over Texas in Week 12, was a 14-10 game at the end of 3 quarters before Georgia pulled away. QB Gunner Stockton has delivered when they’ve really needed him to, and been content to putter along in game-manager mode the rest of the time; no individual skill player ranks in the top 10 in the SEC in yards from scrimmage, with only 1 (RB Nate Frazier) cracking the top 30; the once-formidable pass rush, strangely dormant over the first 2 months of the season, only began to flash its potential in November. While the rest of us have waiting for a glimpse of the finished product, the Dawgs have made a living of figuring it out as they’ve gone along.

Lord knows Alabama hasn’t been living any less dangerously. At least Crimson Tide games have followed a more or less identifiable script. In SEC play, Bama is outscoring opponents by exactly a touchdown per game, 26.1-19.1, and every conference game has fallen roughly within the margin of error of that exact score. Excluding a pick-6 touchdown against Tennessee, the offense has accounted for somewhere between 20 and 30 points in all 8 SEC games, while the defense has allowed between 14 and 24 points in every game except a 20-9 win over LSU in Week 11. 

Specifically, the Tide have specialized in the 4th-quarter dagger from QB Ty Simpson. If you were surprised by the decision to forego a go-ahead field goal at the end of Saturday’s 27-20 win at Auburn, Bama fans were not – or shouldn’t have been. Simpson’s 4th-down touchdown pass to Isaiah Horton was only the latest in a series of clutch conversions that clinched each of the their previous road wins at Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina.

Not coincidentally, the only blemish on the conference slate, 23-21 loss to Oklahoma in Week 12, is the only one in which the biggest swing plays swung against them. Alabama was minus-3 in turnover margin against the Sooners, the giveaways leading directly to 17 of OU’s 23 points. In every other SEC game they’ve been even or in the black.

Unlike Georgia, whose CFP status is secure either way, Alabama is squarely on the bubble with a loss. The committee demonstrated last year that it is not inclined to punish the loser of a conference championship game to the benefit of a team that was watching from home: Texas and Penn State dropped just 1 slot apiece in the weekly CFP rankings following competitive losses in the SEC and Big Ten title games, respectively, and SMU dropped only 2 spots after its last-second loss in the ACC Championship, preserving the Mustangs’ place as the final at-large team in the field. This year, however, Bama has no margin for error. 

As it stands, the Crimson Tide have landed at No. 10 in each of the past 2 CFP rankings, 1 spot behind Notre Dame. If the updated AP and Coaches polls are any indication, they’re likely to remain there again this week. The way the bracket is shaping up (see below), 10 is the cutoff: With 2 slots reserved for lower-ranked conference champs, the team that occupies that position in the final rankings will claim the last at-large ticket.

What will it take for Alabama to hold it? If the Tide win, of course, they’ll claim the SEC’s automatic bid, relegating Georgia to an at-large. On the other hand, a loss that drops then to 10-3 would give the committee cover to make any move it felt justified to make. Bama’s opening-day flop at Florida State only looks worse in hindsight and remains the worst loss of any team on the bubble. BYU, currently ranked No. 11 at 11-1, can punch its ticket with an upset over Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game, knocking the Red Raiders into the at-large pool and the Tide out. If Bama and BYU both lose Saturday, it would leave the lane wide open for the committee to elevate No. 12 Miami to No. 10, thereby avoiding the looming controversy between the Hurricanes and Notre Dame altogether by ushering them both in. 

Point being, the committee is under no obligation to defer to Alabama, as a brand or as the ostensible top seed in the SEC Championship Game. They still might – it’s a powerful brand, and a convincing enough performance even in defeat against the Dawgs could be enough to hold off the teams nipping at their heels. The prospect of bouncing one half of the SEC title game from the field at the 11th hour is a can of worms they’d surely be reluctant to open. But, just like last year, at the end of the day the Tide have no one to blame for their predicament but themselves. Their résumé includes an albatross of a loss at FSU; another loss in a game that, on paper, they had no business losing; and a string of competitive, occasionally sloppy wins. At no point have they inspired visions of a vintage Bama outfit at its inevitable best.

Still, here they are, all of their goals intact and in control of their fate. Nobody what the committee is inclined to do, but there is still one sure-fire way to erase all doubt: Beat Georgia, and take it out of heir hands.

CFP Realpolitik

It’s that time of year, when the fog begins to lift and the outlines of the postseason picture begin to come into view. Each week down the home stretch, CFP Realpolitik will size up the pecking order from a strictly practical perspective.

Rivalry Week! Throw the records out! Or not! Chalk held in Week 14, which brought the bare minimum of chaos: The top 18 teams in the CFP’s committee rankings went 16-2, with the only 2 losses — Michigan and Texas A&M — coming at the hands of a ranked rival. Four teams effectively sewed up at-large bids without qualifying for their respective conference championship games: Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Oregon and Texas A&M. Another of the 3 remaining at-large bids will go to the loser of the Indiana-Ohio State collision in the Big Ten title game. The fate of the final 2 is very much up for grabs entering the final weekend.

Hurricane watch: The CFP committee signaled in its initial rankings on Nov. 4 that it had no intention of taking Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame in Week 1 as a mandate for The U. At that point, the Fighting Irish ranked 8 spots ahead of the Hurricanes, a wide enough cushion that the score of a close game from 2 months earlier didn’t really register. With each week, Miami has narrowed the gap: From 8 spots in the first set of rankings to 6 a week later, to 4 the following week, and to just 3 spots last week — close enough to raise some eyebrows and the blood pressure of ‘Canes fans. Both teams won big on Saturday, clinching 10-2 records and setting up what is probably going to be the most heated argument of the final hours before the field is set.

Only 2 teams still stand between them: No. 10 Alabama and No. 11 BYU. As outlined above, the committee can still avoid settling the ND-Miami question if Bama and BYU both lose, clearing the way for the Hurricanes to join the Irish in the field, or (less likely) if Bama and BYU both win. In that case, they’d claim their respective conference championships, bumping Georgia and Texas Tech into the final 2 at-large slots, and bumping Notre Dame out. Otherwise, if Bama and BYU split, the committee could be forced to bang the gavel for the Irish or ‘Canes.

Miami, of course, would love to get close enough to make head-to-head the most salient point of comparison. Why do we even play the games if the committee is just going to ignore the results, right? Notre Dame’s case rests on everything that’s happened since. The Irish have won 10 in a row, only one of which, a 34-24 decision over USC in mid-October, was even remotely in doubt at any point. (It helps that they set a precedent last year for rebounding from an early loss, going on to win 13 in a row en route to the CFP title game.) Their response to the charge that they’ve beaten up on a relatively marginal schedule is that they’ve dominated that schedule, which is largely true. But then, outside of a a couple of midseason glitches against Louisville and SMU, Miami has handled its business with relative ease, as well. On paper, the gap is marginal. I don’t know to what extent if any the committee pays attention to the assorted advanced metrics available to us common folk. But according to basically all of those metrics — SP+, FPI, SRS, FEI, Jeff Sagarin — there is very little daylight between them:

It would be one thing if the numbers were lopsided enough to be irrefutable. As it is, the Hurricanes have beef: With so little separating them (including the loss column), defaulting to the head-to-head result is the only fair way of settling the question. Why do they play the games, only for the result to be buried under a thin layer of statistical arcana, or subjected to an “eye test” whose main criteria come do to a) Notre Dame is drawing on the credibility it banked during last year’s run to the CFP title game; and b) Miami’s losses are more recent? If I had a voice in the committee, I’d advise seriously reconsidering the status quo before it’s too late.

ACC: All-Consuming Chaos. For reasons no one can quite comprehend, losses by SMU and Pittsburgh over the weekend combined with the ACC’s convoluted tiebreaker procedures to produce the worst possible outcome: An ACC Championship Game featuring 7-5 Duke. The Blue Devils emerged from a 5-way tie for second place in the league standings to take on first-place Virginia (!) in what might be the most unlikely conference championship matchup on record. What is this, the basketball tournament? UVA has never won an outright conference championship in football, and Duke hasn’t claimed one since 1962. The closest either has come since was a shared title in 1989, when the Devils were coached by an up-and-coming Steve Spurrier.

Duke’s presence in the title game is a nightmare scenario for the ACC, which if nothing else in this chaotic season was at least counting on an automatic spot in the Playoff for its eventual champion. If it’s Virginia, it will get it, however little respect the Cavaliers command from the rest of the country. If it’s Duke, the league can probably forget it. The 5 automatic bids are reserved for the 5 highest-ranked conference champions in the final rankings, a bar the Devils almost certainly will not clear after going 1-3 in nonconference play. They’re so far off the CFP radar, FPI lists their chances of crashing the field at 0.0% even if they win on Saturday. Highly doubtful the rest of the league ever expected to be banking on Virginia to salvage whatever remains of its national reputation, but here they are.

Here’s a sentence no one ever could have imagined writing in August: A potential Duke win opens up an opportunity for a 2nd Group of 5 team to claim a seat as the 5th conference champ. The first team in the G5 pecking will be the winner of the American Athletic Championship Game between 10-2 Tulane and 11-1 North Texas. The Green Wave were the only G5 team to make the cut in last week’s rankings, checking in at No. 24; UNT, finishing up the best season in school history, would surely take their place with a win. Next in line: 11-1 James Madison, far and away the class of the Sun Belt. The Dukes have yet to appear in the CFP rankings, but remain the top G5 team in the traditional polls ahead of what should be a routine dispatching of Troy for the SBC title. The wailing and gnashing of teeth across the sport if an obscure outfit in just its 4th season as an FBS program (and 2nd without Curt Cignetti) is ushered into the bracket while some combination of Alabama, Miami and/or Texas is left in the cold will set some kind of record. This is what you get for nuking the Pac-12!

Better luck next year: Steve Sarkisian turned his postgame interview after Texas‘ 27-17 win over Texas A&M into a full-blown infomercial for his team’s CFP case, pitching his team’s bona fides and at one point suggesting it would be “a disservice to the sport” to keep the Longhorns out of the field. Not to completely dismiss his argument about how the committee weighs nonconference losses like Texas’ opening-day trip to Ohio State, but realistically, he can consider the sport disserved because there is no realistic path for Texas to crash the top 10. It’s just too far a climb in too little time.

The ‘Horns came in at 16th in last week’s CFP rankings, meaning they’d have to leap 6 teams immediately in front of them in just 2 weeks to sneak into the bracket as the last at-large. Only 1 of those teams lost: Michigan, which was just 1 spot ahead of Texas at No. 15. Texas could conceivably jump No. 14 Vanderbilt this week based on the combination of a spoiling the Aggies’ perfect season and a head-to-head win over Vandy in Week 10. They could even nudge past No. 13 Utah, which has eked out a couple of sketchy wins the past 2 weeks. But that is where any hypothetical ascent ends. And that’s if the committee is buying what Sark is selling.

Sarkisian wants to talk about who the Longhorns have played, but not how they’ve played. A Week 6 loss at Florida, of course, sticks out on their résumé like a sore thumb. So do subsequent overtime escapes at Kentucky and Mississippi State, for anyone who’s willing to look past the W. Along with losses at OSU and Georgia, Texas underwhelmed every single time it left the state. A quick scan of the metrics reveals the ‘Horns at 13th according to FPI, 20th in SRS, 21st in FEI, and 22nd in SP+. That’s significantly behind Vanderbilt in all of the above, for the record, refuting Texas’ case for jumping the Commodores. Again, metrics might not have much predictive value where the committee is concerned, but the case for the Longhorns sounds a lot more convincing coming out of their coach’s mouth in the immediate aftermath of an emotional win than it does in the light of day.

Dude of the Week: Florida RB Jadan Baugh

On every bad team, there’s a guy who plays his way into the diehards’ hearts just by consistently looking like he wants to be there. For Florida, it’s Baugh, a 230-pound sophomore grinder who never stopped grinding throughout a hopeless slog of a season that gave him every possible excuse to check out. His perseverance paid off Saturday in 40-21 win over Florida State, a game the locals will remember fondly as the Jadan Baugh Game. He put an injury-plagued offense on his back, running 38 times for 266 yards – both career highs by a mile – and scoring twice. In the process, he forced 13 missed tackles, per PFF, and led all FBS rushers in Week 14 with 8 runs of 10+ yards. 

Baugh’s closing effort made him Florida’s first 1,000-yard rusher in a decade, one of the few goals his beleaguered team still had to rally around at the end. He cradled the game ball during his postgame press conference. The new administration has its own priorities, but if the fans got to vote for one guy they’d want to keep in the fold, here’s guessing his name would come in at the top of the list.

Dud of the Week: Auburn’s Bad Hands

Receivers, running backs, tight ends, return men: Just about everybody tasked with catching a ball in the Tigers’ loss to Alabama in the Iron Bowl was afflicted at some point by a contagious case of the dropsies. Per PFF, 6 different players combined to drop 7 passes, tied for the most drops by any team in any FBS game this season in the PFF database. Auburn also fumbled 4 times, culminating in the drive-killing fumble by Cam Coleman that effectively ended the Tigers’ season in the final minute. (Until that, the Tigers had recovered the other 3.) Tack on a muffed punt in the dying seconds, for good measure. If it could be dropped, bobbled, booted, or flubbed, they found a way to do it, and it may have cost them what would have been their most satisfying win in ages.

Notebook

1.) I’ve been on the Diego Pavia for Heisman bandwagon for several weeks now, so it was satisfying to watch the rest of the country climb aboard in unison in the wake of Vanderbilt’s 45-24 romp at Tennessee. Pavia all but clinched his ticket to New York, rising to No. 3 in the updated Heisman odds after accounting for 433 total yards and a couple of touchdowns in yet another milestone win on his watch. He is still a dark-horse compared to the winner of Saturday’s showdown between frontrunners Fernando Mendoza and Julian Sayin in the Big Ten Championship Game, a stage Pavia will have no opportunity to match. But he’s not going to take a backseat to anyone statistically. After a rocket-fueled November, Pavia ends the regular season ranked in the top 4 nationally in total offense, total touchdowns, yards per attempt, efficiency, passing success rate, EPA, Total QBR and overall PFF grade. He also led Vandy to its first 10-win season while vaulting to the top of Vandy’s single-season passing list.

2.) There are 2 ways to look at Oklahoma’s ugly, down-to-the-wire win over LSU. One is alarm: QB John Mateer was picked off 3 times in a must-win game for the Sooners’ Playoff hopes, a losing proposition for a team that is only in the race in the first place due to a +6 turnover margin in its previous 3 November wins. The other is patience: Mateer was picked off 3 times and the Sooners still won, 17-13, on another stellar afternoon for the defense. In one way or another, all 4 entries in Oklahoma’s ongoing, 4-game winning streak have been ugly or unsustainable, yet they have sustained it all the way to a Playoff bid. If they hold at No. 8 in the final committee rankings — there is no reason to think they won’t — they’ll host a first-round CFP game. They can’t go on surviving multiple giveaways a game against a Playoff-caliber opponent, but short of that there is no mandate for Mateer to revive his injury-shortened September Heisman campaign. If he’s less than perfect, well, that’s par for the course.

3.) Their team lost, but Mississippi State fans were vindicated in the Egg Bowl by the emergence of touted freshman quarterback Kamario Taylor in his first career start. A local product with all the tools, Taylor gradually became the focus of a base with not much else to look forward to other than the highest-rated QB recruit in school history finally supplanting 6th-year vet Blake Shapen. Saturday was the day, and Taylor seized it, accounting for 178 yards passing, 173 rushing, 2 rushing TDs, and a handful of highlight-reel runs that left no doubt about his status as a rising star in 2026.

It should have been Taylor’s offense the moment Shapen threw a game-losing pick to a defensive tackle within range of the winning field goal at Florida in Week 8. The Bulldogs might not have won any more games with the rookie, but at least the slog to the finish line would have been a lot more exciting.

Moment of Zen of the Week

The post Monday Down South: Lane Kiffin … and the aftermath of the craziest coaching carousel in SEC history appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Game of the Week: Texas A&M (-2.5) at Texas

It really is great to have this game back on the annual calendar. For too long the Aggies and Longhorns were like a divorced couple in a small town who still frequent the same haunts, loudly insisting from opposite ends of the bar they’ve never been better since the breakup. Everybody knew otherwise and now nobody has to pretend.

For the second year in a row, the road team rolls into this game with visions of an SEC championship and Playoff run in its sights while the home team is reduced to spoiler. Last year, the wind was in Texas’ sails. This time, the initiative is with A&M, proud owner of an 11-0 record for just the 3rd time in school history. Every Aggie knows the stakes, and the dates that accompany them by heart. A win on Friday night will mark their first victory over the ‘Horns since 2010 (also in Austin), and clinch their first undefeated regular season since 1992. That will send them on to Atlanta for the first time since joining the SEC, where they can claim their first conference championship since 1998. From there, the aim shifts to the Playoff and Texas A&M’s first national title since … wow, 1939? Talk about a great depression, am I right? Anyway, as if beating Texas wasn’t incentive enough in its own right, all of the above depends to some extent on beating Texas.

A loss would not cost the Aggies their seat in the Playoff, which they effectively booked a couple weeks ago by pulling off the biggest comeback in school history against South Carolina. It would, however, almost certainly cost them a shot at the SEC crown, and presumably drop them out of the top 4 in the CFP committee rankings, costing them a first-round bye. Just as important, it would puncture the aura of invincibility that comes with that zero in the loss column, which is doing a lot of heavy lifting reputation-wise for a team that has been consistent but rarely dominant. A&M is a solid No. 3 in both the traditional polls and the CFP rankings, but doesn’t fare as well as in advanced metrics, coming in at No. 5 in SRS, No. 7 in SP+, No. 9 in FPI, and No. 10 in FEI.

If that alphabet soup of algorithms doesn’t mean anything to you, you can still imagine that an 11-1 outfit that missed Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Vanderbilt in the SEC rotation suddenly looks slightly less imposing heading into the postseason than one that’s cruising into the conference championship game with its unblemished record intact. And that’s without getting into the implications for quarterback Marcel Reed‘s Heisman campaign. The Aggies are in the driver’s seat, but not at a point where they can feel comfortable taking anything for granted.

On the other side, Texas’ CFP case with 3 Ls on the ledger is a lost cause barring an absolute bloodbath that eliminates half the teams currently in front of them in the pecking order in a single weekend. Not gonna happen. Instead, the Longhorns are focused on the implications for their own sophomore quarterback, as cautious optimism over Arch Manning‘s trajectory threatens to bloom into full-blown momentum heading into 2026.

Not to read too much into a confident romp over Arkansas — what self-respecting quarterback hasn’t looked confident against Arkansas? — but as the season has worn on it’s impossible not to notice how much more comfortable, consistent, and accurate Manning has been as he’s settled into the weekly rhythm of the position. You can chalk that up to the schedule, or to the pass protection in front of him, which has stabilized over the past month as the o-line has reassembled at full strength. At the end of the day, though, the truth is that he’s just a normal sophomore: Talented, erratic, frustrating and slowly but surely figuring it out as he goes.

All of this, of course, is playing out against the backdrop of the inescapable Arch Discourse. After his first SEC game, a 29-21 loss at Florida, people were already talking and writing about him like he was a hopeless bust who’d personally committed some kind of fraud against the American public. The reality on the field was never that bad. But he did seem to be acutely aware he was playing under a cloud. On Saturday, it looked like the cloud was finally gone. It should be: In 6 games since the Florida loss, Manning is 5-1 as a starter with a 12-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio and a perfectly cromulent 147.1 passer rating. He’s thrown for 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns in 3 of the past 4 as he stays on pace to become a 3,000-yard passer. His 2 best games, convincing wins over Vanderbilt and Arkansas, have both come in that span. (Not coincidentally, they were also both in Austin, after Texas spent the entire month of October on the road.) He is not a Heisman contender or a lock to go on to a Hall-of-Fame career at the next level. By any other standard, he is on schedule as his first year as a starter draws to a close.

Now, as encouraging as his trajectory has been, nobody is defining the starting quarterback at Texas by his capacity to put the torch to Vanderbilt and Arkansas. The next step is to deliver in the kind of game it feels like the whole world is watching. The blemish on Manning’s résumé down the stretch is Texas’ 35-10 loss at Georgia in Week 12, which snuffed out the Longhorns’ Playoff chances and left Arch looking as overmatched as ever vs. a CFP-caliber defense. All eyes will be on him again this weekend against Texas A&M, another golden opportunity to spoil the Aggies’ perfect season, put the “BUST” narrative to bed, and reset expectations heading into 2026. The tenor of his offseason is poised to change dramatically based on what happens on Friday night.

Prediction: • Texas 30 | Texas A&M 26

Georgia (-13.5) vs. Georgia Tech

Last year’s UGA-Tech game in Athens was one of the most entertaining of the year, an instant classic in which Georgia rallied from a 17-0 deficit at the half to win/escape/survive in 8 overtimes. It was also much of the country’s introduction to Tech quarterback Haynes King and his unabashedly throwback style. King accounted for 413 total yards and 5 touchdowns before it was all said and done, foreshadowing his emergence this year as one of the most productive dual-threats in the country.

Watching King reminds me of watching the Heisman Trophy winner circa, like, 1956, running an offense that would have been legible at the time. He’s not quite that old-school: He puts it in the air nearly 30 times per game and ranks among the ACC leaders in completion percentage, yards per attempt and efficiency. But they Jackets are a single-wing team at heart, and King is their long-limbed, slightly awkward, relentlessly efficient workhorse. Excluding sacks, he ranks 5th among FBS quarterbacks in carries (163), 8th in rushing yards (943), 2nd in 1st-down runs (69), and tied for the lead in rushing touchdowns (15), per PFF. He ain’t pretty on the hoof. But he’s an ace ball-handler, he absorbs punishment like a giant side of ham, and he’s always, always falling forward.

For SEC fans who remember King as an underclassman at Texas A&M, struggling to adapt to Jimbo Fisher’s doorstopper of a playbook, there’s something satisfying about watching him find his niche. My main memory of King at A&M is of him being beaten to a pulp in a 2022 loss at Alabama and very nearly rallying the Aggies to an improbable comeback anyway. He’s never see been a guy you could imagine playing on Sundays. But, thanks to the transfer portal, he is going to be remembered as a damn good college quarterback. 

Prediction: Georgia 32 | • Georgia Tech 23

Alabama (-6.5) at Auburn

Look, if Jordan-Hare Stadium was “haunted,” or whatever, Auburn would have a much better record there than 4-14 in SEC play since the pandemic. (That’s not including nonconference losses in that span to Penn State, Cal and New Mexico State.) But it has been an agonizing venue for Alabama, specifically. With the exception of 2011, every odd-year trip to The Plains in the Nick Saban era was either a Bama loss (2007, 2013, 2017, 2019); a narrow escape by way of a face-melting comeback (2009, 2021, 2023); or, at best, a 60-minute slugfest still in doubt well into the 4th quarter (2015). It’s a thing, although just as often it’s been the Tigers staggering away from the proceedings looking ashen.

This year, the first trip of the Kalen DeBoer era is a wild card. The Crimson Tide can sew up a trip to the SEC Championship Game with a win, but they have not inspired great confidence under DeBoer on the road: They were 2-4 outside of Tuscaloosa in 2024, and their combined margin of victory in 3 road wins this year over Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina (13 points) is less than the margin in their opening-day loss at Florida State (14 points). Meanwhile, Auburn is a wounded animal of a team with an interim head coach, an unpredictable quarterback situation, and nothing to lose. The Tigers came into the season thinking the Tide might be as gettable as they’ve been in a while, and for all that’s gone wrong in the meantime, there’s no reason that can’t still be true.

Among Alabama’s concerns with the postseason looming, the most pressing remains an anemic ground game. The top 3 running backs, Jamarion Miller, Kevin Riley and Daniel Hill, all average less than 4.0 yards per carry for the season; as a team, Bama has yet to break 4.0 yards per carry in a single SEC game, a startling development for a team that has not only historically defined itself by running the dang ball, but which boasts a colossal o-line rotation that averages north of 325 pounds per man. Including sacks, the Tide are next-to-last in the SEC in rushing offense vs. Power 4 opponents, topping out at 146 yards against Vanderbilt. They rank 130th in rushing success rate, worst in the conference.

Before their Week 12 loss to Oklahoma, there was a resigned acceptance that this is just what the offense under DeBoer and coordinator Ryan Grubb looks like. The last time they worked together, at Washington, the 2023 Huskies posted similarly underwhelming numbers on the ground en route to the CFP Championship Game. But Ty Simpson is not quite Michael Penix Jr., and asking him to drop back 48 times against a top defense (as he did against Oklahoma) is still slightly above his pay grade. The Sooners overcame a nearly 200-yard deficit in total offense largely by capitalizing on a pair of uncharacteristic Simpson giveaways, including what may go down as a season-altering pick-6 for both teams. The more the offense demands of Simpson, the higher the likelihood of those kinds of mistakes, and the less Bama can afford them. Even at this late date, some semblance of balance would be a welcome development.

Prediction: • Alabama 28 | Auburn 19

Vanderbilt at Tennessee (-3)

If it was up to me, Diego Pavia‘s ticket to the Heisman ceremony would already be booked. He has the stats; he has the moments; he has the juice. The life he has singlehandedly injected into an program as comatose as Vanderbilt is one of the most remarkable feats I’ve seen in a couple of decades covering college football. Other than maybe Robert Griffin III at Baylor, I can’t come up with another player who has meant more to his school. And RG3 has a Heisman to show for it.

In reality, it’s going to come down to the wire. Pavia has made a big move in the race over the past few weeks on the strength of a couple of gonzo stat lines in wins over Auburn and Kentucky, the 2 best games (on paper) of his career. For the month of November, he leads the FBS in total offense and touchdowns, and leads the Power 4 in efficiency. (My go-to statistic these days, Total QBR, doesn’t break down by month, but Pavia would almost certainly be No. 1 in November if it did; at any rate, he ranks 5th nationally for the year.) He’s up to No. 4 in the latest Heisman betting odds, just ahead of Marcel Reed but still well behind frontrunners Fernando Mendoza and Julian Sayin and the surging Jeremiyah Love.

One issue for Pavia’s campaign is that many voters probably have not seen him at his best. Vandy’s wins over Auburn and Kentucky unfolded in the relative obscurity of the SEC Network, while his most high-profile outings at Alabama and Texas resulted in the Commodores’ only losses. (He did show out in a prominent win over LSU in Week 7, but not so memorably that it’s going to move the needle more than 6 weeks later, after LSU’s season has collapsed.) As if the stakes in Saturday’s trip to Tennessee weren’t high enough – in-state rivalry, Playoff implications, the first 10-win season in school history on the line – it will also be Pavia’s last chance to make an impression on the skeptics who still think of him as more of a scrappy overachiever than a full-blown star. He can’t control anybody’s vote, but he can leave them with no doubt just how big his impact has been.

Prediction: • Vanderbilt 34 | Tennessee 31

LSU at Oklahoma (-10.5)

Oklahoma is poised to finish its unlikely November turnaround by punching its ticket to the Playoff. If it does, it will be because of HAVOC. Per gameonpaper.com, “havoc rate” is a metric that combines various disruptive stats – interceptions, forced fumbles, sacks, tackles for loss and passes broken up – as a percentage of a defense’s total snaps. Brent Venables has made a career out of generating havoc: First at Clemson, where his defenses regularly checked in near the top of the national leaderboard, and now at OU, where the Sooners lead the nation in havoc rate this year at 19.1%. 

Most of that is due to a front seven that lives in opposing backfields. Oklahoma leads the nation in sacks and TFLs, the latter by a wide margin. (Sacks are included in the TFL total, for the record.) Lately, though, the pressure has finally translated into turnovers – the Sooner have eight takeaways in the past 3 games, after generating a grand total of 4 in the first 8 games. They’ve been crucial ones, too, and again largely the result of the pass rush. Tennessee and Alabama both coughed up the ball multiple times under duress, resulting in defensive touchdowns in both games as well as what turned out to be the game-winning field goal against the Tide. The defense also came down with a couple of drive-killing INTs in last week’s defensively-driven, 17-6 win over Missouri.

Notably, they’ve done most of that without their best pass rusher, R Mason Thomas, who hasn’t played since pulling up lame during his season-altering fumble return TD at Tennessee in Week 10; he remains doubtful to play Saturday against LSU. In Thomas’ absence, Oklahoma has still managed to record a dozen sacks by committee. Venables’ blitz-heavy scheme has had a lot to do with that, generating open rushing lanes for linebackers Kip Lewis and Owen Heineke; the tenacious efforts of Taylor Wein and Gracen Halton along the front line has, too. Given the Sooners’ struggles on offense, there are no illusions that keeping this train on the tracks depends on every man on the other side of the ball doing his part.

Prediction: • Oklahoma 23 | LSU 10

Ole Miss (-7.5) at Mississippi State

Excuse me while I get on my high horse. By all rights, this Egg Bowl should be one of the high-water marks in Ole Miss history. Instead, it’s setting up to unfold against a backdrop of bitterness and dread as Rebels fans wait for the other shoe to drop. As of this writing, the hurricane of speculation over where Lane Kiffin will be hanging his hat in 2026 remains just that: Speculation. Still, resignation seems to have set in that he is on his way out, most likely to LSU, which has reportedly offered Kiffin at least $90 million over 7 years as well as a guaranteed $25 million annually to stock the roster. Barring a leak between now and then, we’ll find out on Saturday. 

The standing assumption is that, if he is leaving, Kiffin will bow out immediately and hand the reins to an interim coach for the Rebels’ impending Playoff run. That scenario is not a given. First of all, it takes a win on Friday to wrap up a CFP bid for granted, which given the lurid history of this rivalry is flirting with hubris. (Especially in Starkville.) Ole Miss still has to win the dang game. Once that box is checked, it’s on to the next, more existential question: What kind of coach is willing to abandon a potential championship run with the team he’s built from scratch just to cash a check from a conference rival?

In the grand scheme of things, once you consider the raise Kiffin would demand to remain in Oxford it’s not even that much bigger of a check. He’s already a wealthy man making an obscene $9 million a year despite having never previously led a team to the Playoff or a major conference title as a head coach, and despite spending the better part of a decade as a punchline after getting fired at the airport at his last high-profile gig. He’s already at a program that has proven it’s willing and able to support a Playoff-caliber roster and restock it on an annual basis in the NIL/portal era. He has as much job security as anyone in his profession. He has a chance to play for a championship right now, not at some indeterminate point in the future that might never arrive before he’s sent packing like the last guy. 

What kind of coach looks at the players who have bought into his vision and then with the goal within reach says to them, thanks for the blood, sweat, and tears, but this thing we’ve built together is not worth seeing through to the end? Or looks at a fan base that in many cases has quite literally bought into his vision, and says hey, I appreciate you digging deep to attract the talent that made the dream a reality, but we all know this team is not really good enough to get it done? Let’s hope for Ole Miss’ sake and the sake of the sport that we are not actually about to get our answer.

Playoff: • Ole Miss 29 | Mississippi State 20

Clemson at South Carolina (-3.5)

South Carolina took Shane Beamer‘s status off the table this week, announcing Beamer will return in 2026 despite a miserable year for a team that opened at No. 13 in the AP poll. An offseason on the hot seat awaits, give or take a few degrees depending on how it goes on Saturday against the hated rival Tigers.

Dabo Swinney, for all his problems, has not spent down that much of the goodwill he’s banked at Clemson yet. But the ’25 team has drained the account more rapidly than any other in the Swinney era. A preseason contender, the Tigers took the fast track to irrelevance, dropping the opener against LSU – a much bigger red flag in hindsight than it was at the time – on the way to a 3-5 start. They’ve won three straight since to salvage a bowl game and a shot at a winning record, which is better than the alternative, at least. Win or lose on Saturday, the result is still going to be the worst record at Clemson in 15 years.

One of the prevailing narratives before the season was the potential of this team to vindicate Swinney’s portal-averse, recruit-and-develop approach to roster-building. Instead, it has accomplished the opposite. In addition to a house-cleaning of the coaching staff, Tigers fans are also looking forward to what they hope will be a more aggressive approach to the portal this winter – possibly even at quarterback, where 3 -year starter Cade Klubnik will be part of an exodus of mostly underachieving talent. The pickings behind him are slim. For his part, Swinney has insisted his philosophy has not changed, and Clemson will only add transfers to fill specific vacancies. “Starting quarterback” might seem like a pretty specific vacancy to the rest of the world, but whether the only person who matters sees that way is TBD.

Prediction: South Carolina 24 | • Clemson 22

Florida State at Florida (-1.5)

Can you remember the last time Gators-Noles generated any heat? Do the kids still acknowledge this as a meaningful rivalry?

Seriously. The last time Florida and FSU met as ranked teams: 2016, under head coaches Jim McElwain and Jimbo Fisher. Their teams were ranked 13th and 15th, respectively, which at the time made it a relatively meh year by the standards of the series. In 7 meetings since, there hasn’t been a single entry between teams with winning records – including this year’s, when both sides are limping in with a combined 6-14 record vs. FBS opponents. Eight different head coaches have manned the headsets in that span, half of them in interim roles. (That number includes Florida’s current placeholder, Billy Gonzales, who is still seeking his first win since taking over in late October for the exiled Billy Napier, as well as Florida State’s Odell Haggins, who twice served as interim head coach, in 2017 and ’19.) Before FSU confirmed this week that it plans to retain embattled coach Mike Norvell, there was a nonzero chance that both teams would be led this year by short-timers, and not for the first time.

That’s not a rivalry. It’s a series of half-hearted skirmishes between decimated regiments in a war that’s already over.

I’m going to have this game on a 2nd or 3rd screen strictly out of a sense of professional obligation. I’ll mainly be monitoring Florida QB DJ Lagway‘s body language for signs he still has any interest in wearing a Gator uniform again after the clock hits zeroes. Reader, you are not obligated to watch. If you are not a fan of either team, I am hereby freeing you to do anything else with the precious hours of your life on a crisp November Saturday afternoon. If you are a fan of either team, I insist on it. Take care of yourself.

Prediction: • Florida State 26 | Florida 17

Missouri (-2.5) at Arkansas

I have a soft spot for the 2025 Razorbacks, a truly chaotic, directionless outfit with an explosive offense, horrendous defense, and resolute commitment to showing up, giving themselves a chance, and then blowing that chance. The Hogs have lost 9 in a row, yet entering the finale somehow still boast a net-positive point differential for the season, 378 to 375. Even after last week’s 15-point loss at Texas, easily their most lopsided loss in SEC play, their total margin of defeat in 7 conference games (40 points) is narrower than the margin in their Week 5 loss to Notre Dame alone (43 points).

OK, I think even Arkansas fans were done feigning that much interest in this team around the time Sam Pittman vacated the premises in late September. Finally, they have something to look forward to (maybe, reportedly?): A new head coach, Alex Golesh, whose TBA arrival was reported on Wednesday. The 41-year-old Golesh has taken the tried-and-true route from Russian immigrant (he moved to the U.S. as a child) to successful SEC coordinator (at Tennessee) to successful rebuilding job at a mid-major (South Florida) and back to the SEC, where he is surely poised to become the highest-paid coach in Arkansas history (you know, assuming it happens). (If I’m Golesh’s agent, I’m taking every opportunity to remind his new bosses that the Wal-Mart logo is literally painted on the field.) The actual rivalry game on the field being drowned out by the buzz over a guy on a different sideline 1,100 miles away is a fitting tribute to the Razorbacks’ efforts against adversity.

Prediction: • Missouri 38 | Arkansas 27

Kentucky at Louisville (-3)

If not for Kentucky’s wipeout loss at Vanderbilt in Week 13, the story here would be “two teams headed in opposite directions.” 

Just a few weeks ago, Louisville was 7-1 and harboring serious Playoff ambitions in a wide-open ACC. Since, the Cardinals have lost 3 in a row in increasingly demoralizing fashion. The first 2 , an overtime loss to Cal and a 1-point decision against Clemson, were heartbreakers that derailed a promising season. The 3rd, a 38-6 blowout at the hands of SMU, was more like a exhausted outfit waving the white flag. Starting QB Miller Moss was sidelined in that game by a foot injury and remains questionable for Saturday. Ditto for leading rushers Isaac Brown (hamstring) and Keyjuan Brown (leg). The Cardinals’ best player, NFL-bound wideout Chris Bell, is out with either an undisclosed injury or an acute lack of interest.

Meanwhile, for a minute there Kentucky was on the upswing. The Wildcats pulled out of a midseason nosedive to win 3 straight to open November, highlighted by a 38-7 thumping of Florida. Redshirt freshman QB Cutter Boley looked like the future face of the program. Then they went to Nashville and got smacked back down the hill in a 45-17 loss that wasn’t as close as the score. All they have to show for their brief bout of competence is a shot at bowl eligibility and, by all appearances, another year of Mark Stoops on the sideline.

If there are any lingering doubts about Stoops’ future, taking out a limping rival will do more to put them to bed than securing a spot in the BadBoy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl. There’s no indication that the decision makers in Lexington have any interest in paying Stoops’ onerous buyout or jockeying for position on what promises to be one of the most irrational coaching carousels on record. If you squint hard enough, a 4-1 November looks enough like “momentum” to stay the course.

Prediction: • Kentucky 24 | Louisville 20

Scoreboard

Week 13 record: 10-0 straight-up | 5-2 vs. spread
Season record: 99-19 straight-up | 53-55 vs. spread

The post Rivalry Week SEC Primer: Texas takes aim at A&M’s perfect record, plus the rest of the slate of in-state hate appeared first on Saturday Down South.

1. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt

If it was up to me, Pavia’s ticket to the Heisman ceremony would already be booked. He has the stats; he has the moments; he has the juice. The life he has singlehandedly injected into an program as comatose as Vanderbilt is one of the most remarkable feats I’ve seen in a couple of decades covering college football. Other than maybe Robert Griffin III at Baylor, I can’t come up with another player who has meant more to his school. And RG3 has a Heisman to show for it.

In reality, it’s going to come down to the wire. Pavia has made a big move in the Heisman race over the past few weeks on the strength of a couple of gonzo stat lines in wins over Auburn and Kentucky, the 2 best games (on paper) of his career. For the month of November, he leads the FBS in total offense and touchdowns, and leads the Power 4 in efficiency. (My go-to statistic these days, Total QBR, doesn’t break down by month, but I’m pretty sure Pavia would be No. 1 in November if it did; at any rate, he ranks 5th nationally for the year.) He’s up to No. 4 in the latest Heisman betting odds, just ahead of Marcel Reed but still well behind frontrunners Fernando Mendoza and Julian Sayin and the surging Jeremiyah Love.

One issue for Pavia’s campaign is that many voters probably have not seen him at his best. Vandy’s wins over Auburn and Kentucky unfolded in the relative obscurity of the SEC Network, while his most high-profile outings at Alabama and Texas resulted in the Commodores’ only losses. (He did have a very good game in a prominent win over LSU in Week 7, but not such an indelible one that it’s going to move the needle more than 6 weeks later, after LSU’s season has collapsed.) As if the stakes in Saturday’s trip to Tennessee weren’t high enough – in-state rivalry, Playoff implications, the first 10-win season in school history on the line – it will also be Pavia’s last chance to make an impression on the skeptics who still think of him as more of a scrappy overachiever than a full-blown star. He can’t control anybody’s vote, but he can leave them with no doubt just how big his impact has been.

Last week: 1⬌

2. Gunner Stockton, Georgia

Like pretty much all Georgia quarterbacks, it’s tempting to drop Stockton into the “game manager” column and take his consistency for granted. But within the context of UGA’s offense his ceiling has been as remarkable as his floor. On the high end, he’s posted 6 games with a QBR rating of at least a 93.0, most in the nation. (No other FBS quarterback has more than 4.) That includes all 3 of UGA’s biggest wins over Tennessee, Ole Miss and Texas, in which Stockton accounted for a combined 13 touchdowns and a couple of season-saving comebacks in shootouts against the Vols and Rebels. On the low end, his worst rating against an FBS opponent, a 71.0 vs. Florida, was still well above the national average. Whatever the Dawgs have needed from him on any given Saturday, he has delivered.

Last week: 2⬌

3. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M

It’s fitting that the make-or-break game in Reed’s Heisman campaign is coming on the road, at Texas. Most young quarterbacks are just trying to survive in hostile territory, but Reed has been at his best: A&M’s 4 road trips this season at Notre Dame, Arkansas, LSU and Missouri are his highest-rated games according to Total QBR, yielding at least 250 total yards and multiple touchdown passes in all 4.

Last week: 3⬌

4. Ty Simpson, Alabama

Look, if Jordan-Hare Stadium was “haunted,” or whatever, Auburn would have a much better record there than 4-14 in SEC play since the pandemic. (That’s not including nonconference losses to Penn State, Cal and New Mexico State.) But it has been an agonizing venue for Alabama, specifically. With the exception of 2011, every odd-year trip to The Plains in the Saban era was a Bama loss (2007, 2013, 2017, 2019); a narrow escape by way of a face-melting comeback (2009, 2021, 2023); or, at best, a 60-minute slugfest still in doubt well into the 4th quarter (2015).

This year, the first trip of the Kalen DeBoer era is a wild card. The Crimson Tide can sew up a trip to the SEC Championship Game with a win, but they have not inspired great confidence on the road: They were 2-4 outside of Tuscaloosa in 2024, and their combined margin of victory in 3 road wins this year over Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina (13 points) is less than the margin in their opening-day loss at Florida State alone (14 points). Meanwhile, Auburn is a wounded animal of a team with an interim head coach, an unpredictable quarterback situation, and nothing to lose. The Tigers came into the season thinking the Tide might be as gettable as they’ve been in a while, and for all that’s gone down in the meantime, they might still feel the same way.

As for Simpson, of course as soon as I go out of my way to bring up his historically low interception rate a couple weeks back, he goes on a spree. After throwing a single pick in Alabama’s first 9 games, he’s thrown 3 in the past 2: A potentially season-altering pick-6 in the Tide’s Week 12 loss to Oklahoma, followed by a pair of INTs last week against, uh, Eastern Illinois. Come on, man, help me out here. Factor in a crucial strip sack by the Sooners, and suddenly ball security has gone from a strength to a potential red flag in very short order.

Last week: 4⬌

5. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

I can’t write about the Lane Kiffin situation in Oxford without it turning into a 2,500-word screed about the integrity of the sport that wrecks my deadline. I don’t know what Kiffin is going to do any more than anyone else, but the very idea of abandoning a team that still has a chance to play for a national championship for a bigger payday at a conference rival is as offensive as the idea of a coach throwing a game to cash in on a bet. Chambliss and the rest of the Rebels deserve better than to be playing in the shadow of their coach’s ego on what should be a triumphant day for the program. Moving on!

Last week: 5⬌

6. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee

Aguilar is one of many players monitoring Diego Pavia’s case about whether he could be back. His name was among the plaintiffs added to an amended complaint filed in federal court in Nashville last week, which seeks to overturn the longstanding NCAA rule that counts JUCO seasons against a player’s eligibility clock. The suit argues only seasons at an NCAA institution should count. Aguilar spent 4 years at the JUCO level in California from 2019-22, and is currently in his 3rd year in D-I, potentially leaving a 4th year of eligibility in 2026 if the suit succeeds. Whether the timeline for deciding the case will allow for that, who knows? He’d be 25 years old on opening day.

Last week: 6⬌

7. Arch Manning, Texas

The kid is gonna be alright. Not to read too much into a confident romp over Arkansas — what self-respecting quarterback hasn’t looked confident against Arkansas? — but as the season has worn on it’s impossible not to notice how much more comfortable, consistent, and accurate Manning has been as he’s settled into the weekly rhythm of the position. You can chalk that up to the schedule, or to the pass protection in front of him, which has stabilized over the past month as the o-line has reassembled at full strength. At the end of the day, though, the truth is that he’s just a normal sophomore: Talented, erratic, frustrating, and slowly but surely figuring it out as he goes.

All of this, of course, is playing out against the backdrop of the inescapable Arch Discourse. After his first SEC game, a 29-21 loss at Florida, people were already talking and writing about him like he was a hopeless bust who’d personally committed some kind of fraud against the American public. The reality on the field was never that bad. But he did seem to be acutely aware he was playing under a cloud. On Saturday, it looked like the cloud was finally gone. It should be: In six games since the Florida loss, Manning is 5-1 as a starter with a 12-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio and a perfectly cromulent 147.1 passer rating. He’s thrown for 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns in 3 of the past 4. He’s could become Texas’ next 3,000-yard passer this week against Texas A&M. His 2 best games, convincing wins over Vanderbilt and Arkansas, have both come in that span. (Not coincidentally, they were also both in Austin, after Texas spent the entire month of October on the road.) He is not a Heisman contender or a lock to go on to a Hall-of-Fame career at the next level. By any other standard, he is on schedule as his first year as a starter draws to a close.

Now, as encouraging as his trajectory has been, nobody is defining the starting quarterback at Texas by his capacity to put the torch to Vanderbilt and Arkansas. The next step is to deliver in the kind of game it feels like the whole world is watching. The blemish on Manning’s résumé since midseason is Texas’ 35-10 loss at Georgia in Week 12, which snuffed out the Longhorns’ Playoff chances and left Arch looking as overmatched as ever vs. a CFP-caliber defense. All eyes will be on him again this weekend against rival Texas A&M, another golden opportunity to spoil the Aggies’ perfect season, put the “BUST” narrative to bed, and reset expectations heading into 2026. The tenor of his offseason is poised to change dramatically based on what happens on Friday night.

Last week: 9

8. John Mateer, Oklahoma

Mateer’s bid for the September Heisman seems like a long time ago, doesn’t it? Now, the closer Oklahoma gets to clinching a Playoff bid, the uglier it gets. The Sooners are 3-0 in November despite being outgained in all 3 games, by an average margin of 108 yards. Saturday’s 17-6 slugfest against Missouri was the ugliest yet, featuring 16 combined punts and registering a zero on the Richter Scale after halftime. Half of Mateer’s passing output against the Tigers came on 1 play, a routine pitch-and-catch that his favorite receiver, Isaiah Sategna III, turned into an 87-yard house call.

Meanwhile, Mateer continues to struggle pushing the ball downfield since returning from a midseason injury to his throwing hand, although not for lack of trying. Per PFF, he was 0-for-6 against Mizzou on attempts of 20+ air yards, making him an alarming 2-for-23 on downfield attempts over the past 6 games. At some point, that has to matter.

Last week: 8⬌

9. Taylen Green, Arkansas

Green’s prolific counting stats are hard to ignore. At this point, though, so are the turnovers: Week after week, he’s committed costly giveaways in winnable games, both as a passer and a runner. He was picked twice in an early loss at Memphis; fumbled 3 times against Tennessee, losing 2; served up 3 interceptions in a 4th-quarter meltdown against Auburn, including a go-ahead pick-6; threw 2 INTs in an eventual 1-point loss at LSU; and committed what amounted to a game-ending gaffe in Saturday’s 52-37 loss at Texas, which was still theoretically within reach before he did… whatever this is:

That went in the books as an interception, although if you watch the replay from another angle it looks like the ball inadvertently slipped out of Green’s hand on the way up. Either way, it was “a total panic play turnover that shouldn’t happen,” in the words of interim coach Bobby Petrino, especially courtesy of a guy in his 46th career start. The Longhorns capitalized a few plays later to extend their lead to 17 points, drive home safely.

That was Green’s last snap before yielding to redshirt freshman KJ Jackson — not to be confused with erstwhile Razorbacks QB KJ Jefferson — who did some exciting stuff in garbage time. Nobody ever looks better than the spry freshman coming off the bench to replace the beleaguered vet in garbage time. Petrino said this week he wouldn’t name a starter for this weekend’s finale against Missouri, leaving the door open to Jackson earning his first career start. I can’t imagine there are many prior cases on record of a senior who ranks 6th nationally in total offense getting benched in his final game.

Last week: 7

10. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

Last year, Sellers achieved liftoff against Clemson, looking like the second coming of Cam Newton while leading the Gamecocks to a come-from-behind, 17-14 win in Death Valley. This year, the Gamecocks are limping into the finale with a 1-7 record in SEC play, no hope of bowl eligibility, and rumors over Sellers’ future running rampant. If this is his last game in a Carolina uniform, it would be a heck of a time to remind the home crowd what the hype was all about in the first place.

Last week: 10⬌

11. Beau Pribula, Missouri

Pribula defied the injury gods, returning to the starting lineup in Week 13 less than a month after being carted off with a fractured ankle, and just a few days after being listed as “doubtful” on the weekly injury report. Unfortunately, he could not defy Oklahoma’s defense. The Sooners picked Pribula twice, sacked him 4 times, and held him to a season-low 98.3 passer rating while holding Mizzou without a touchdown. Up next: Arkansas, whose defense promises to be significantly more forgiving.

Last week: n/a

12. Cutter Boley, Kentucky

Mark Stoops announced this week that Boley, a redshirt freshman, is coming back as Kentucky’s starter in 2026. Which … presupposes that Stoops is coming back, too? Good to know. If it comes to pass, that would make Boley the first UK quarterback whom Stoops signed out of high school to open a season atop the depth chart. (It’s true, look it up.) First, he’s looking to get the 5-6 Wildcats to bowl eligibility with a win at rival Louisville.

Last week: 11

13. Ashton Daniels and Deuce Knight, Auburn

Daniels is set to return to the starting lineup against Alabama after sitting out last week’s blowout win over Mercer to preserve a redshirt. But he must and will share snaps with Knight, a 5-star freshman coming off an eye-opening debut. In the first meaningful action of his career, Knight accounted for 401 total yards and 6 touchdowns (2 passing, 4 rushing), looking every bit the blue-chip specimen against an outmanned FCS defense. His highlight reel included a 75-yard TD run on the first play of the game; a 51-yard TD run at the end of the first quarter; and a 91-yard TD pass in the second half.

In hindsight, it’s easy to wonder why this kid wasn’t playing all year, which … OK, yeah, fair question. Obviously, a big afternoon against Mercer in late November is not evidence that Knight was anywhere close to being ready to handle the weekly grind of the SEC slate in September and October, when Hugh Freeze‘s job was on the line. But then, neither was the guy Freeze actually entrusted with the job, Jackson Arnold, who commanded 7 figures only to languish at or near the bottom of the conference in every major category before getting benched. 

Arguably more than any other factor, the decision to make that investment in a guy coming off an equally dismal season as Oklahoma’s starter in 2024 doomed Freeze’s tenure. If Daniels or Knight could have saved the season, there was never any way they were going to get a chance to find out. Installing Arnold as de facto QB1 made it virtually impossible to give the rest of the depth chart a fair chance to compete, or to pull the plug before it was too late.

Anyway, bygones. With Knight officially on breakout watch in 2026 and Daniels set to return as the steady veteran insurance policy, there is no pressing need for the next head coach to dip into the portal if he can keep both in the fold. Consider the Iron Bowl the first stage in a competition that will begin in earnest next spring.

Last week: n/a | 16

14. Blake Shapen, Mississippi State

Barring a huge surprise between now and Friday, Shapen is going to go wire-to-wire as the Bulldogs’ starter despite serving up 3 pick-6 INTs, suffering at least 1 concussion, and arguably being outplayed by homegrown freshman Kamario Taylor down the stretch. (Or not that arguably, if you ask the locals.) Shapen is tough, you gotta give him that. Unless he spoils Ole Miss’ CFP plans in the Egg Bowl, though, he’s going to be remembered in Starkville – if he’s remembered – mainly as the guy who passed the torch from one locally cultivated star, Will Rogers, to the next.

Last week: 13

15. Michael Van Buren Jr., LSU

If Van Buren has designs on competing for the starting job under the next administration, he’s in for an uphill battle. His first start as a Tiger, a 23-22 squeaker over Arkansas, was underwhelming. His next start, a 13-10 slog vs. Western Kentucky, was a near-disaster. Van Buren struggled to find any kind of rhythm against the Hilltoppers, averaging a meager 4.8 yards per attempt, failing to move the needle at all downfield, and finishing with an appalling 12.3 QBR rating despite facing minimal pressure. 

For a meaningless November game under an interim head coach opposite a 21-point underdog, whatever. As an audition, woof. Van Buren has potential, but a year-end trip to Oklahoma is his last chance to make an impression before the incoming coach decides whether he’s worth including in the ’26 blueprint or not.

Last week: 12

16. DJ Lagway, Florida

In a season defined by meltdowns, Tennessee didn’t even give Lagway a chance to melt down, storming to a 21-0 lead before Florida’s offense had even managed to register positive yardage in the box score. The Gators waved the white flag, running just 47 plays after agreeing to what might as well have been a mutual running clock in the second half. The only surprising part was how many fans in The Swamp still appeared to be emotionally invested enough in this train wreck of a team to be disappointed. 

What can you say, man? Lagway is certainly not alone among hyped quarterbacks whose seasons flamed out early on, but no one else has crashed and burned quite this spectacularly. The first question this winter, even before the arrival of the new head coach, is whether Lagway still wants to be a Gator, regardless of who’s calling the shots. The next question, if he’s still in the fold, is whether the new coach can be convinced Lagway’s enormous potential is worth salvaging from the wreckage. Somewhere in there is the 5-star specimen who looked like the next big thing as a freshman. Just how far down he’ll have to dig to find him and bring him to the surface remains TBD.

Last week: 14

The post SEC QB Rankings, Week 14: Arch Manning might just make it after all appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Portrait of Lane in limbo

By all rights Saturday should have been one of the chillest days in the history of Ole Miss football: No pressure, no stakes, only an open date to bask in the once-in-a-generation opportunity in front of the Rebels before wrapping up the regular season this Friday in the Egg Bowl. Instead, they spent their week off being reminded at every opportunity of all the reasons their head coach has for leaving them high and dry.

In light of the long, lurid and ludicrous history of the coaching carousel, what is it about the Lane Kiffin saga that threatens to drive college football’s hive mind to new heights of madness? The money? The alleged “ultimatum”? Unshakable faith in his singular genius or charisma? Come on. Not that long ago Kiffin was a punchline, the poster boy for a new generation of entitled underachievers promoted too far, too fast. Now speculation over his future reached a fever pitch over a weekend on which his team didn’t even play, and is on the verge of becoming a full-blown spectacle.

What is it about this guy, in particular? A heck of a lot of ascendant coaches have found themselves the object of intrigue while their team’s season still hangs in the balance. None of them that I’m aware of has ever felt compelled to schedule an announcement a week in advance to alert the public of whether they intended to remain in their current job. And if if they had, not many of them could have commanded the kind of all-hands-on-deck treatment that’s in store over the coming days as Lane Watch ’25 approaches its climax.

It’s not like he’s the flavor of the month. At least this, Kiffin has come by his top-of-the-cycle hype more or less honestly, by winning big at a place that, historically, ain’t won much. That does not (yet) include a championship, of any stripe. After 6 years in Oxford, though, he boasts the 2nd-highest win percentage in Ole Miss history, behind only the guy whose name is on the stadium, Johnny Vaught, who retired the year before the team integrated. Exclude Kiffin’s debut, a 5-5 campaign amid the weekly chaos of the pandemic year in 2020, and he’d rank No. 1. With 1 more win over a nondescript version of of Mississippi State, the Rebels will secure only the 2nd 11-win season in school history (Kiffin also presided over the first, in 2023) and their first ticket to the College Football Playoff. 

But then, there has never been a relatively young-ish head coach with a track record like that who hasn’t spent a few Thanksgivings fielding questions about has future. There has never been a head coach in his prime whose team is still in the thick of the national championship race at this point on the calendar who didn’t have some booster at some other school willing to cut a blank check with his name on it. All these blessings and curses and more come with the territory, when you’re the guy who made the place nobody ever thought that much about before something it has never been. 

But there was nothing routine about the Kiffin discourse, which despite offering no significant developments, much less a resolution, sucked up more oxygen nationally over the weekend than virtually any single game actually unfolding on the field. Why? Because of some secret sauce he brings to the table as a play-caller or recruiter? I don’t think so. I think it’s because there has rarely been another coach in his position – possibly never, if you narrow it down to coaches tempted by the prospect of abandoning ship literally in the midst of a potential championship run – who is so openly willing to say yes.

Now hang on, I can hear Kiffin apologists object. Take a good look around. Look at the sport. Look at the country. Look at what’s on the table. Did Kiffin ask for any of this? Or is it a sign of the times, one that says less about him, or anyone in particular, than it does about the madcap state of college football?

The calendar, obviously, is in shambles. The overlapping demands of the carousel, recruiting and the transfer portal have only increased the urgency of hitting eject on a struggling coach sooner than ever and getting the next guy in the fold ASAP. There has never been less incentive to practice patience with a coach on the hot seat or to lock up his replacement. (Not for nothing, Virginia Tech just became the first big-time school in recent memory to fill a permanent head-coaching vacancy before the team had even finished the regular season with someone other than the interim coach; a little less than a month after he was abruptly shown the door at Penn State, James Franklin was on hand in Blacksburg on Saturday to introduce himself during the Hokies’ loss to Miami, a ritual that had previously been reserved for bowl games.) The money, objectively, is obscene. It’s also absurd, almost entirely unbound by any rational market forces, and driven instead by the need for schools going big-game hunting to spend in a fashion that justifies their ambition – regardless whether the coaching talent on the receiving end of their largesse justifies it. If you’re not willing to break financial records to fill the trophy case, are you even trying?

Kiffin’s old boss, Nick Saban, is one of many insisting don’t hate the player, hate the game. “This is not a Lane Kiffin conundrum,” Saban said Saturday from his pregame perch on College GameDay. “This is a college football conundrum that we need some leadership to step up and change the rules on how this gets done in terms of coaching searches and opportunity for people to leave.”

Well, that would be great. Leadership! I wonder who Nick might have in mind? Certainly not anyone currently in a leadership position. For the foreseeable future, NFL-style collusion to regulate the carousel is a pipe dream, both because there is no one willing or able to enforce it and because anyone who tried would be signing up to appear in court until kingdom come. 

Meanwhile, the numbers keep going up and the timelines keep getting tighter. LSU’s overture to Kiffin is reportedly in the neighborhood of $90 million to $98 million over 7 years, which would represent the most brazenly inflated yet of the mega deals that keep resetting the bar in the wake of the infamous 10-year, $75 million albatross of contract Texas A&M gave to Jimbo Fisher 8 years ago. Do the math folks, that is more $13 million per year to coach college football, a club whose current membership includes Kirby Smart and no one else. That makes the $9 million per year Kiffin currently makes in Oxford – the result of his last flirtation with leaving, for the Auburn vacancy that eventually went to Hugh Freeze in 2022 – seem positively quaint.

Just as importantly, LSU will also reportedly kick in another $25 million annually to spend on the roster. If that number turned out to be real, it would easily exceed the salary cap that went into effect this year, which is limited to funds designated under a landmark revenue-sharing agreement and does not apply to third-party NIL funds. (Given the looming pushback over the new regime’s efforts to crack down on free-range NIL spending, that’s a very big if.) Maybe even more so than for the salary, Ole Miss would have to reach very deep to meaningfully compete with that number, year-in, year-out.

Here’s the thing, though: While LSU can point to the enormous, sustained investment it’s willing and able to make in assembling a championship-caliber roster in the future, in Oxford, the enormous investment Ole Miss has made in assembling a championship-roster is currently paying off right now, as we speak, in an actually existing team — not a hypothetical one a few years from now — that’s poised to host a first-round Playoff game, at worst. From there, the Rebels have about as viable a chance of advancing into the later rounds as any team other than Ohio State.

Everybody understands more money. But it takes a terminal case of galaxy brain run amok to determine that the only way of fulfilling your ultimate goal of winning a championship is to leave a team actively that’s contending for one.

Ironically, the most relevant example of a coach who made a similar choice to the one Kiffin is facing is the guy he’d be replacing in Baton Rouge: Brian Kelly. Up until a couple of years ago, an ambitious, championship-or-bust coach could have credibly cited LSU’s resources and championship track record as a meaningful distinction compared even to other high-profile jobs — Kelly, of course, memorably did exactly that when he bailed on Notre Dame in November 2021 more or less explicitly to chase a ring in the SEC, despite the Fighting Irish remaining very much alive for a potential 4-team CFP bid on the day Kelly decided there was no such thing as a championship window in South Bend. He is the only head coach in the Playoff era to leave a team with a non-zero chance of making the field, and he might never stop regretting it.

Four years later, it’s a different world, and the longstanding assumptions about what it takes to build and sustain a contender in the NIL/portal era are changing fast. In fact, besides his own merits, one reason Kiffin has been so hotly pursued is that nearly all of his would-be peers at the top of a typical coaching cycle responded to the glut of midseason vacancies by negotiating extensions where they already are. Curt Cignetti, potentially the biggest fish in the free-agent pond if he’d had any mind to be, re-upped at Indiana, securing a major financial commitment in the process. Ditto the other consensus home-run hire of the past couple cycles, Texas A&M’s Mike Elko, earlier this month. Ditto Rhett Lashlee at SMU. Ditto Matt Rhule at Nebraska. For all of them, the big opportunity is the one right in front of them, and they bet on extending that window as far into the future as possible.

That leaves Kiffin, whose impish approach to being America’s Most Wanted Coach has not gone over nearly well as it does on the sideline. If he never asked to be the center of attention, he hasn’t exactly done anything to dissuade it, either. Especially the one thing that actually would: Assuring the locals that he’s not going anywhere. At any point, he could have said “I’m excited about the opportunity of my damn strong football team, have a great day,” and ended the ordeal as the most popular man in a state that has embraced him.

He could have done that at any time over the past few weeks as it became obvious his name was rising to the top of the list of targets for a sudden glut of vacancies. Instead, he spent his off week tweeting through the drama, keeping up his regimen of hot yoga and motivational quotes, and giving interviews that pointedly avoid saying anything about his future. Every day that passes without resolution now feels like another step closer to the door, and closer to the sobering possibility that, for all the Rebels invested in making the Kiffin project one of the defining successes in school history, he only ever saw them as the shortest route to get where he was really going all along.

CFP Realpolitik

It’s that time of year, when the fog begins to lift and the outlines of the postseason picture begin to come into view. Each week down the home stretch, CFP Realpolitik will size up the pecking order from a strictly practical perspective.

Week 13 was as about as chalky as they come: Teams ranked in the top 20 in last week’s CFP committee rankings were a combined 14-2, with no real disruption to the status quo. The “Green Zone,” the 10 teams we can safely project into the field barring a major upset, remains intact.

Bama on the bubble. The committee threw a lot of projections for a loop last week by ranking Notre Dame 1 spot ahead of Alabama. We will not be debating the merits of that decision here, only its consequences. Specifically the fact that, as it stands, Bama is now the last team in the at-large queue.

The good news is that the Crimson Tide control their fate. Wins in the Iron Bowl and SEC Championship Game will punch their ticket as SEC champs, no questions asked. The questions come if the Tide make it to Atlanta (where they could still face Texas A&M or Georgia) and suffer a 3rd loss.

In most scenarios, the Tide should still be fine. The committee signaled last year that it is not inclined to drop teams that lose their conference championship games in favor of teams that are sitting at home. Neither team directly behind Bama in the CFP rankings, BYU and Utah, figure to be in any position to skip the line for an at-large bid.

The nightmare scenario for Alabama (and all bubble teams) is what happens if BYU or Utah springs an upset over Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Red Raiders are runaway favorites to win the conference and the automatic bid that goes with it; as long as that bid goes to Tech, it will very like be the only 1 the league gets. If BYU or Utah manages to steal that bid, though, the Raiders will be bumped into the at-large circle, thereby bumping somebody out. Right now, that somebody would be Alabama. If they can’t win out themselves, the Tide need to be rooting specifically for the Raiders.

‘Dores closed. A Vanderbilt win over Tennessee in Knoxville would clinch the first 10-win season in school history. Projecting a Playoff path is dicier. Besides taking care of their own business, the Commodores also need to jump at least 4 spots, from No. 14 to No. 10, to have a shot. In other words, at least 4 of the 6 teams ranked directly above them — Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Alabama, BYU, Utah and Miami — need to lose on the final weekend of the regular season to open up a potential path. The ‘Dores are playing their best football, well, possibly ever. But if they get that much help on one Saturday, they are truly charmed.

Chaos agent: Michigan. The Wolverines opened as 11.5-point underdogs against Ohio State in Ann Arbor; that number was quickly bet down to -9.5, a nod of respect to both Michigan’s 4-game winning streak in the series and 7-1 start in Big Ten play. Frankly, the former is more compelling than the latter: Michigan hasn’t faced a ranked opponent since its Week 2 loss at Oklahoma, benefiting enormously from the luck of the draw in the conference slate. In an 18-game conference, you only wind up playing half the teams in it, and the half the Wolverines didn’t play (including Indiana, Oregon, Illinois and Iowa) is significantly better than the one it did.

But the record leaves the Wolverines in position to make a late, dramatic move against OSU, and potentially crash the Big Ten Championship Game with an automatic bid on the line. Even as an at-large, a 10-2 Michigan outfit with what would be arguably the single best win of the season under its belt would be almost impossible to snub. Unfortunately, you could say the same thing about all the teams they might plausibly replace. If you’re looking for a maximum conflagration guaranteed to leave multiple parties enraged, you’re rooting for the Maize and Blue this weekend.

Dude of the Week: Diego Pavia

A couple weeks back I made the case for Pavia as a Heisman finalist following what was then his best game of the season in a come-from-behind overtime win over Auburn. He arguably eclipsed that outing Saturday, finishing 33-for-39 for a career-high 484 yards and 5 touchdowns in his final Vanderbilt home game, a 45-17 romp over Kentucky that played out as a start-to-finish party in Nashville.

Everybody knows who Pavia is; I’m not sure how many people are actually watching his best games, which is a big deal in Heisman politics. His gonzo outings against Auburn and Kentucky both unfolded on the relative obscurity of the SEC Network. But few if any players nationally are more valuable to their team — Vandy Before Pavia vs. Vandy After Pavia is a completely different program — and few quarterbacks have been more productive. For the season, Pavia ranks 5th nationally in Total QBR; 4th in EPA; 4th in yards per attempt; 3rd in total offense; 3rd in pass efficiency; 2nd in passing success rate; and tied for 2nd in overall PFF grading. He still has to show up against Tennessee, but barring a meltdown in Knoxville, I’m ready to book his ticket to New York myself. (Offer void were prohibited.)

Dud of the Week: The Schedule

In a season defined largely by parity and close calls, only 1 of the 10 games featuring SEC teams on Saturday was decided by single digits: a 13-10 slog between LSU and Western Kentucky which featured a combined 14 punts and 5 failed 4th-down conversions. The weekend’s other 5 nonconference games were decided by a combined score of 252 to 27, including Alabama’s 56-0 romp over Eastern Illinois in which the Crimson Tide held EIU to a grand total of 2 first downs and 34 yards for the game. And even that was still not as depressing as Tennessee’s wipeout win over Florida, which trailed 28-0 in The Swamp before its offense crossed midfield for the first time.

The 9-game conference schedule cannot get here fast enough.

Moment of Zen of the Week

The post Monday Down South: The ‘Lane Kiffin conundrum’ tells us more about his ego than state of game appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Game of the Week: Missouri at Oklahoma (-6.5)

The stakes: Can Oklahoma keep this up?

You gotta hand it to them: Few if any teams have 2 road wins on their résumé as impressive as the Sooners’ back-to-back upsets at Tennessee and Alabama, much less in consecutive games. with their season hanging by a thread. Less than month ago, they were virtually left for dead in the Playoff race on the heels of deflating October losses to Texas and Ole Miss. At that point, it seemed possible that they would be underdogs in each of their last four games. In this space, I described Oklahoma ahead of the trip to Knoxville as “sinking” and focused almost exclusively on what was at stake for the Volunteers. Two weeks later, OU is in the driver’s seat, checking in at No. 8 in the updated CFP committee rankings and firmly in control of its own destiny with two very winnable games to go.

It has not been pretty. The Sooners themselves would probably be the first to admit they’ve done it the hard way. In the win over Tennessee, they were outgained by more than 100 yards and committed 11 penalties. Against Alabama, they were outgained by nearly 200 yards, and generated 17 of their 23 points as a direct result of 3 Bama turnovers. Based on the box score, ESPN’s Bill Connelly estimated Oklahoma’s postgame win expectancy in Tuscaloosa at 4.8%, its lowest projection in any game this season (including both of its losses). The defense scored the first touchdown in both games, and forced more takeaways (6) than it had managed in the first 8 games combined (4). Kicker Tate Sandell was a perfect 7-for-7 on field goal attempts, including 4 connections from 50+ yards out. Not every variable has broken in the Sooners’ favor, but the ones that have they have taken advantage of.

Whatever they lacked in style points, the wins have left the Sooners in enviable position in the CFP pecking order, with little chance of getting leapt in the rankings and only Mizzou (in Norman) and LSU (in Baton Rouge) remaining between them and a golden ticket. The margin for error, of course, remains zero. But that is nothing new. For now, the most important thing about living on the edge is that they’re still alive.

When Oklahoma has the ball: Can John Mateer stretch the field?

Mateer has never had a reputation as a gunslinger, but his downfield efficiency on downfield attempts has plummeted since his return from surgery to repair an injury to his throwing hand in early October. The timing might be coincidental, given that it also coincides with an uptick in Oklahoma’s strength of schedule. The results, though, are plain enough. Per Pro Football Focus, Mateer has connected on just 2-of-17 attempts of 20+ air yards over the past 5 games, yielding the fewest completions and worst grade on downfield attempts among SEC starters in that span.

Whether he needs to push the ball downfield on any given Saturday is another question. He didn’t attempt a pass of 20+ air yards in the win over Alabama, a game in which OU led virtually from start to finish except for a stretch late in the 3rd quarter. He did complete 1 downfield attempt against Tennessee, but averaged an anemic 5.5 yards per attempt for the night. He did most of his damage in that game with his legs, running 15 times (excluding sacks) for 93 yards and a touchdown. As a team, the Sooners gashed the Vols for 199 rushing yards on 6.2 per carry — an ideal scenario, as long as they’re also generating the occasional explosive play through the air. That aspect of the offense has been sorely missing.

When Mizzou has the ball: Can the Tigers control the clock?

As of midweek, Mizzou’s starting quarterback is TBD (see below). Regardless of who’s taking the snaps, though, it is no secret the Tigers are determined to run the dang ball. Despite an October lull, they still lead the SEC in rushing, and still boast the nation’s leading rusher for the season, sophomore Ahmad Hardy. Hardy has never looked better than he did in last week’s 49-27 win over Mississippi State, when he went off for a career-high 300 yards on 25 carries; that was easily the best single-game output by any FBS back this season, and he generated the lion’s share of it before a State defender laid a hand on him. He’s already 5th on Mizzou’s single-season rushing list with 1,346 yards and is within 300 yards of breaking Cody Schrader’s single-season record of 1,627.

Hanging a big number on Mississippi State’s rapidly disintegrating defense is one thing. Making a dent against Oklahoma, which leads the SEC against the run, is another story. But between Hardy and Jamal Roberts — both of whom went over 100 yards in a Week 11 loss to Texas A&M — the Tigers will be down to pound for 4 quarters, or as long as the scoreboard allows.

Wild card: Missouri QB Beau Pribula

Pribula has not played since Week 9, when he was carted off following what initially appeared to be a serious ankle injury at Vanderbilt. In the meantime, his understudy, true freshman Matt Zollers, has looked like … well, a true freshman understudy. In his first start, Zollers was 7-for-22 passing for 77 yards against Texas A&M, and just 3-for-15 on attempts beyond the line of scrimmage. He was slightly better last week against Mississippi State, finishing 8-of-18 for 112 yards, 2 TDs and an interception in much friendlier conditions. But a road trip to Oklahoma to face a Brent Venables defense is about as unfriendly as it gets.

Pribula’s recovery has been more rapid than expected. On Thursday, he was upgraded from “doubtful” to “questionable” on the weekly injury report; that followed an ESPN report earlier in the day that Pribula has been medically cleared, and that his status on Saturday will be essentially a game-time decision based on how well he’s moving around. The point spread narrowed by a point following news that Pribula might be available. He doesn’t boast the biggest arm, but his decision-making and mobility (assuming he’s given the green light to run) are significant upgrades over Zollers. Missouri has no incentive to rush Pribula back with its Playoff window almost certainly already closed, but if he really is in the clear his presence alone would be a much-needed shot in the arm.

The verdict …

As a rule, it’s probably wise not to be too bullish on a team that has been outgained by 300 yards in its 2 biggest wins. Still, Oklahoma has already passed 2 demanding road tests in as many games, and whatever skepticism remains over the offense, the defense and special teams are good enough to keep every game within the margin of error. Anyway, at this point, those are questions for further down the line. If the Sooners are as good as their record says they are, a home date with the finish line in sight should be just another day at the office.

Prediction: • Oklahoma 27 | Missouri 19

Tennessee (-4.5) at Florida

Saturday night will be the last edition of Gators-Vols as an annual affair before the SEC shifts to a 9-game conference slate next year — Florida and Tennessee were not paired as permanent opponents under the new format, bringing down the curtain on one of the most consequential rivalries of the post-expansion era. Frankly, whatever juice this matchup once had has been strictly the stuff of nostalgia for a while. From 1992-2009, 1 or the other of these teams represented the East Division in the SEC Championship Game 15 times in 18 years. Since 2010, they’ve combined for a grand total of 3 trips to the title game, all by Florida. (And all resulting in a loss in Atlanta at the hands of a heavily favored version of Alabama.) In that entire span, the Gators and Vols both finished above .500 in conference play in the same season only twice. Even the concept of the “East Division” has already accumulated a layer of dust.

So maybe it’s fitting that the end of an era arrives with nothing in particular at stake. If Tennessee (7-3) is still clinging to Playoff hopes, they’re infinitesimal at best; the Vols are 0-3 in games that matter (Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma) and haven’t beaten anybody who still has a chance to finish with a winning record. Florida is an incredible 2-7 vs. FBS opponents and more interested at this point in pursuing Lane Kiffin than anything that might conceivably happen on the field. The most interesting dynamic between the lines may be the status of Florida QB DJ Lagway, who — like most Gators fans — sounded well past ready to be done with the 2025 season following last week’s 34-24 loss at Ole Miss, describing the past 3 months as “emotionally draining” in what a local reporter described as “a monotone voice, (while) staring at the bricks on the back of the wall.” If Lagway still has any desire to remain in Gainesville in 2026, he’s running out of time to show it.

Prediction: • Tennessee 31 | Florida 22

Arkansas at Texas (-8.5)

The take is out there that Texas is being unfairly punished for its season-opening loss at Ohio State. If the Longhorns hadn’t opened the season with a trip to Columbus — if they’d scheduled the likes of, say, Baylor or TCU, or virtually anyone else other than the Buckeyes — and the rest of the season had unfolded exactly as it has, they’d be 8-2 right now, ranked in the top 10 by virtue of head-to-heads win over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, and firmly on the Playoff track. Instead, last week’s 35-10 loss at Georgia sent them plunging to 17th in the committee rankings, all but eliminating them from CFP contention at 7-3. So, the argument goes, why should anyone take the risk of playing Ohio State?

I don’t know if anyone who doesn’t actively root for Texas is actually supposed to be convinced by any of this, or if it’s purely an exercise in rationalization for the base. First, it takes for granted that the team that made the trip to Columbus in August obviously would have started 1-0 against a less elite opponent, which is a (citation needed) claim right off the bat. But the bigger point that this brand of take always tends to hide is that who you play is not nearly as important as how you play.

In fact, I think the OSU loss has been generally forgiven, if not forgotten. But not because Texas has done much to redeem itself in the meantime. Quite the opposite: The Longhorns have consistently reaffirmed the skepticism that followed the opener by underwhelming every single time they’ve left the state. No one needs to go that far back to justify their doubts. Their 2nd road trip, a 29-21 loss at Florida in Week 6, was arguably a bigger red flag than any loss suffered by any of the 16 teams ranked ahead of them. (With the possible exception of Alabama’s Week 1 debacle at Florida State.) The flop in The Swamp was bad at the time, coming at the hands of a reeling Gators outfit that prior to that game was 0-3 vs. FBS opponents; in hindsight, in light of their 1-4 record since, it looks even worse. The next 2 road trips, at Kentucky and Mississippi State, were a couple of skin-of-the-teeth overtime escapes against teams that are a combined 3-11 in SEC play. As long as we’re playing the hindsight game, what if either of those results had come up tails instead of heads?

There was no second-guessing the smackdown in Athens, which only confirmed what we’d already learned over the course of the season: Texas is not in the same weight class as real contenders and has not earned the benefit of the doubt. It’s not just the fickle human pollsters who aren’t convinced: The ‘Horns come in at No. 21 this week according to SP+, 2 spots below 4-6 Penn State. How much more do we really need to see before we get the picture?

Broadly speaking, of course, the point of scheduling Ohio State is to beat Ohio State. Winning big a nonconference game means instant validation and credit in the bank. Losing one should not and does not mean automatic disqualification. When the issues exposed in that loss persist, though, it makes no sense to pretend it never happened, much less extend extra credit just for having shown up to the stadium. Texas can still make things interesting next week by knocking off Texas A&M in Austin, which would at least allow the Longhorns to make the case that they’re a better team at the end of the season than they were at the start. But even then, they still wouldn’t have a good answer for what took them so long.

Prediction: • Texas 38 | Arkansas 26

Kentucky at Vanderbilt (-8.5)

The first 10-win season in Vanderbilt history is well within reach with wins over Kentucky and Tennessee. Whether that still represents a viable path to the Playoff … eh. It’s not looking good. Vandy didn’t budge in the CFP rankings, holding at No. 14 following an open date. If the bracket was set today, the Commodores would be the 4th team out, coming in behind BYU, Utah and Miami in the at-large pecking order. Besides the teams immediately in front of them, they’re also looking over their shoulder at a couple of fellow 8-2 outfits in the Big Ten, USC and Michigan, with opportunities to make their move over the next 2 weeks. ESPN’s Football Power Index projects the ‘Dores’ chances of making the cut at just 16.4%.

Of course, the bracket is not set today, and as we were reminded last year, certain assumptions at this point on the calendar usually turn out to be built on sand. First things first: Vanderbilt needs to take care of business, and hope that a convincing enough win in Knoxville gives the committee permission to move the ‘Dores ahead of a couple of the 2-loss teams immediately in front of them. Chaos-wise, they’d benefit enormously from 1 upset in particular: Missouri over Oklahoma, which would work in Vandy’s favor by A) likely knocking the Sooners out of the bracket with a 3rd loss; and B) boosting the value of the ‘Dores’ head-to-head win over Mizzou in Week 9. If that winds up as their best win, it would be nice if they could say it came at the expense of an opponent that’s still ranked when the committee is in final deliberations.

Prediction: Vanderbilt 29 | • Kentucky 24

Charlotte at Georgia (-43.5)

If Charlotte isn’t literally The Worst Team in America, it’s only due to the existence of UMass. The 49ers belong in the discussion on their own demerits. They’re 0-9 vs. FBS opponents, losing by an average margin of 23.6 points. They rank 134th out of 136 teams according to SP+ and 135th according to FPI. They’re dead last nationally in total defense, having been on the wrong end of both a 400-yard rushing game and a 600-yard passing game just a few weeks apart. Aside from their lone win, a 42-35 shootout over FCS Monmouth decided in the final 2 minutes, the best thing that has happened to them this season is North Carolina pulling the plug on a behind-the-scenes Hulu series that would have featured the 49ers as victims in Bill Belichick‘s first win as UNC head coach. (“Let the fun begin!”) The silver lining on Saturday: Just for showing up to face the largest point spread in school history, Charlotte is also getting the fattest check in school history.

Prediction: Georgia 48 | • Charlotte 10

Western Kentucky at LSU (-21.5)

Unlike LSU, the Hilltoppers actually have something to look forward to: With a 6-1 record in Conference USA play, they’re still very much in the thick of their conference race despite losing 25-year-old starting QB Maverick McIvor to a mid-season shoulder injury. The Toppers’ fate will be determined next week in a trip to first-place Jacksonville State. As for this week, there’s not much at stake in Baton Rouge beyond springing/avoiding a major upset. Barring developments in LSU’s pursuit of Lane Kiffin, the only real intrigue on the field is at quarterback, where a couple of promising young backups, LSU’s Michael Van Buren and WKU’s Rodney Tisdale Jr., are auditioning for long-term residencies in their respective roles. Like the 20-something vets they replaced, either or both could be on their way to making a comfortable living on campus before their time is up.

Prediction: LSU 35 | • WKU 17

Coastal Carolina at South Carolina (-24.0)

Well, at least Shane Beamer doesn’t have to answer any more questions about leaving for Virginia Tech. Instead, most of the speculation – or “horse garbage,” if you prefer – as the Gamecocks limp to the finish line surrounds beleaguered QB LaNorris Sellers, whose raw talent promises to make him a hot commodity in the draft or the transfer portal despite his failure to launch as a sophomore. Like Anthony Richardson a couple years ago, the case for going pro isn’t so much that the 20-year-old Sellers is necessarily ready to make the leap as it is that he can’t afford not to. He could still be a first-rounder in 2026 based on his physical tools alone, plus the recognition that he’s been dealt a losing hand in South Carolina’s offense. (Both the o-line coach and offensive coordinator have already been shown the door.) If he was to stay in school and continued to struggle next year as a 21-year-old redshirt junior, he can’t guarantee that would still be the case in 2027. 

Beamer, of course, would love to have Sellers back in what (assuming he survives the next 2 weeks) will surely be a make-or-break season for his tenure. Every decision he makes between now and the end of the year should be in the interest of keeping his franchise QB in the fold and giving him every opportunity to break through in ’26, up to and including seeking Sellers’ input in hiring the next play-caller. From Sellers’ point of view, if he’s even going to consider gambling his future on another year in garnet and black he shouldn’t settle for anything less. 

Prediction: South Carolina 36 | • Coastal Carolina 14

Eastern Illinois at Alabama (n/a)

Notable Eastern Illinois football alumni include a pair of Super Bowl-winning coaches (Mike Shanahan and Sean Payton), a couple of matinee-idol quarterbacks of more recent vintage (Tony Romo and Jimmy Garoppolo), and Burl Ives.

Ives reportedly intended to be a high school football coach before dropping out. Too bad, generations of small-town Illinois kids would have run through walls for that guy.

Prediction: Alabama 51 | Eastern Illinois 7

Samford at Texas A&M (n/a)

After last week’s brain-melting comeback against South Carolina, the Aggies owe the 12th Man a lazy, drama-free afternoon in what they hope is their final home date of the year. (The only way it’s not is if A&M blows its shot at a first-round CFP bye and finds itself hosting a first-round game instead.) Samford, a 1-10 outfit whose only victory came by 2 points at the expense of fellow Southern Conference bottom dweller VMI, is in no position to object.

Prediction: Texas A&M 56 | Samford 3

Mercer at Auburn (n/a)

If you’ve lost track of Auburn’s quarterback situation, I don’t blame you. A quick recap: Jackson Arnold‘s doomed tenure as QB1 officially ended with the end of Hugh Freeze‘s doomed tenure as head coach. The next man up, Stanford transfer Ashton Daniels, looked like a keeper his last time out, when he led the Tigers to a season-high 38 points in a shootout loss at Vanderbilt in Week 11. Under NCAA rules, however, keeping him means sitting him: The trip to Nashville was Daniels’ 3rd appearance of the season, leaving only 1 more before he burns his redshirt and, with it, his final year of eligibility. (He did not redshirt in any of his 3 seasons at Stanford, where he started 20 games.) Wisely, coaches have opted not to waste that appearance on a glorified scrimmage against an FCS patsy. Instead, Daniels will skip this weekend’s game and return to the lineup for the Iron Bowl, thereby preserving another year on campus (and the paycheck that comes with it) in 2026.

That leaves Deuce Knight, gem of the Tigers’ 2025 recruiting class, who’s due for the first meaningful action of his career. His debut will also serve as an audition – if not for the chance to start against Alabama, then to get a leg up on next year’s competition under a new head coach. Whether that competition will involve Daniels or an incoming transfer, or both, will be up to the next administration. For now, all he can do is look the part against the No. 6 team in the latest FCS rankings.

Prediction: Auburn 32 | Mercer 10

Scoreboard

Week 12 record: 6-2 straight-up | 4-3 vs. spread
Season record: 89-19 straight-up | 48-53 vs. spread

The post Week 13 SEC Primer: Oklahoma, somehow, is on the verge of making its improbable Playoff dream come true appeared first on Saturday Down South.

1. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt

This weekend’s visit from Kentucky will be Pavia’s swan song in Nashville, where he has presided over a remarkable 11-3 home record over the past 2 years. For some context, a win on Saturday (the Commodores are 9.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook) would leave him in 2nd place on Vandy’s all-time list for home wins behind only the immortal Kyle Shurmur, who was the starting QB in 13 home wins over a 4-year period from 2015-18. It’s a short list of Vanderbilt quarterbacks who have a dozen career wins to their credit, period. Beating Kentucky would also complete the ‘Dores’ first perfect season at home since 1982, ensure a winning record in SEC play for just the 3rd time since World War II, and keep their dwindling Playoff hopes alive heading into the season finale at Tennessee. If they went ahead and retired Pavia’s number at halftime, who would object?

Last week: 1⬌

2. Gunner Stockton, Georgia

If you averaged every Georgia performance of the Kirby Smart era, the result would look a lot like Saturday’s 35-10 romp over Texas. And if you combined every Georgia quarterback in that span into one guy, the result would look a lot like Stockton, whose resemblance to his predecessors could not be more on the nose if he’d been cast to play Generic Kirby Smart Quarterback in a movie. (You couldn’t script a much better name than “Gunner Stockton” for that role, either.) Imagine a version of Jake Fromm with Stetson Bennett IV’s mobility operating the same scheme as Carson Beck, and you’ve conjured Stockton. Average their production through the first 10 games of their respective seasons as QB1, and you’re effectively left with Stockton’s output so far in 2025:

The most notable evolution in Georgia’s offense under Smart is the uptick in screen passes since Mike Bobo’s arrival as offensive coordinator in 2023. More than 30% of Stockton’s attempts this season have been behind the line of scrimmage, per Pro Football Focus, the highest rate in the SEC and roughly twice the rate that Fromm threw behind the line from 2017-19. That accounts for the improved completion percentage and decline in yards per attempt. Otherwise, in terms of total yards, touchdown percentage and efficiency, Stockton is almost eerily par for the course.

If Stockton brings anything new to the table, it’s a week-in, week-out presence as a runner. Already, he’s run more times (79, excluding sacks) for more yards (377) and more first downs (26) than Fromm, Bennett or Beck did in an entire season, and his 8 rushing touchdowns are 2nd only to Bennett’s 10 rushing TDs in 2022 in 15 games. Compared to the rest of the SEC, though, those numbers are squarely in the middle of the pack. As far as opposing defenses are concerned, Stockton might as well be just the latest model of the same guy they’ve been defending for the better part of a decade.

Last week: 3

3. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M

There are bigger comebacks on record, but I defy anyone to verify a more dramatic u-turn in the annals of college football history than the one Reed pulled off in the Aggies’ wild, 31-30 win over South Carolina.

The first half could not have gone much worse. After completing his first 2 passes of the afternoon, Reed proceeded to melt down, missing on 13 of his next 17 attempts; that included 2 interceptions — both costly — and a series of coulda-been picks that repeatedly forced his own receivers to turn into defenders. Meanwhile, there was also the slapstick fumble on which Reed, attempting to salvage an instantly doomed play while in the grasp of elite Carolina edge rusher Dylan Stewart, instead lost control of the ball in a moment of panic; it skittered free, and eventually into the mitts of A&M defensive linemen who returned the loose ball for a touchdown. The Aggies limped into the locker room down 30-3 while Reed’s Heisman stock abruptly plummeted in real time.

In the second half, he was unstoppable, flipping the switch to lead 4 touchdown drives in as many possessions to erase the deficit less than 5 minutes into the 4th quarter. Those drives covered 75, 70, 80 and 98 yards, respectively, on a combined 27 plays. Four of those plays were completions of 25+ yards, 3 of which went for touchdowns; the 4th set up a short TD run on the ensuing play. Incredibly, Reed’s resurgent Heisman odds were slightly better at the end of the day than they’d been at the beginning.

That’s quite the journey just to balance the ledger against a 20-point underdog. I wonder what the reaction would have been if Reed had delivered the exact same performance, but in reverse — shock-and-awe in the first half, followed by a stunning collapse in the second — or in a more random order, generating a series of back-and-forth swings in momentum rather than a couple of sustained waves with an obvious turning point. Or if, say, South Carolina’s offense had taken advantage of the botched trick play Texas A&M ran on 3rd-and-goal from the 1-yard line on its last full possession, which resulted in another slapstick fumble and, briefly, a game-winning opportunity for the Gamecocks. (That play is the sudden spike you see in Carolina’s win probability near the end.) Maybe I’m in the minority, but I’m of the mind that the only thing more impressive than the drama of rallying from a seemingly insurmountable deficit is never putting yourself in the position of facing one in the first place.

Last week: 4

4. Ty Simpson, Alabama

Last week, I praised Simpson’s steady hand and allergy to turnovers for a team that seemed to thrive the thinner the margin for error. Right on cue, he served up the costliest mistake of his season, a pick-6 INT with a free rusher in his lap that set off the upset siren in an eventual 23-21 loss to Oklahoma.

That was the first of 2 uncharacteristic giveaways against the Sooners, both of which came under pressure. The 2nd was the result of a blindside sack that jarred the ball loose at the end of the 3rd quarter; Oklahoma recovered the fumble inside the Bama 30-yard line, setting up a go-ahead field goal that proved to be the winning points. Simpson was hardly the biggest goat on an afternoon when an inconsistent o-line, anemic ground game and shambolic special teams all conspired to blow a game in which Alabama ran up a nearly 200-yard advantage in total offense. But to the extent that Simpson’s Heisman case rested on his reputation for transcending the Tide’s shortcomings — or at least not making them worse — it’s safe to say that case is officially closed until further notice.

Last week: 2

5. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

By all rights this should have been one of the chillest weeks in the history of Ole Miss football, with an open date on deck to bask in the 10-1 Rebels’ success before wrapping up the regular season in the Egg Bowl. Instead, they’ve spent their week off embroiled in the ongoing saga of Lane Kiffin‘s courtship by LSU and Florida. The prospect of any coach potentially bailing on a top-5 outfit in the midst of a Playoff run seems like a textbook case of galaxy brain run amok – to fulfill your ultimate goal of winning a championship, you have no choice but to consider abandoning a team currently competing for a championship? But, you know, look around. If you expect decision-making at the executive level in college football or, like, America at large to align with common sense in the year 2025, I don’t know what to tell you. All I know is that, regardless of where he’s ultimately employed in 2026, if Kiffin doesn’t feel obligated to do everything he can to give the best Ole Miss team in living memory the best possible chance to max out what might be the best opportunity the program going to get at national relevance, what a sorry state of affairs for the sport.

Last week: 5⬌

6. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee

Interceptions ranked at the top of the list of preseason concerns over Aguilar’s game, based on his an FBS-worst 14 INTs in 2024 at Appalachian State. He hasn’t been quite as interception-prone as a Vol, but it’s close: With 2 picks Saturday in a 42-9 win over New Mexico State, Aguilar has now thrown 10 INTs this year in 320 attempts, a rate of 3.1%; that’s only slightly off last year’s pace of 3.6% at App. State. Half of those picks have come in Tennessee’s 3 losses against Georgia, Alabama and Oklahoma, including the season-defining, coast-to-coast pick-6 at Bama that’s going to haunt the offseason in Knoxville if Tennessee goes on to finish 9-3. Still, given the dramatic uptick in big plays this season compared to last year’s defensively-driven, 10-2 CFP run, here’s guessing Vols fans will still take him over Nico Iamaleava in a heartbeat.

Last week: 6⬌

7. Taylen Green, Arkansas

Arkansas’ 23-22 loss at LSU was familiar in many ways, marking the Razorbacks’ 7th loss by single digits and the 4th in which they led in the 4th quarter. For once, though, Green can’t lay a close loss at the feet of the defense. The offense botched opportunity after opportunity in Baton Rouge, committing 2 turnovers inside the LSU 25-yard line and failing to punch it in the end zone on a crucial goal-line sequence in the the 3rd quarter. Between those 3 possessions and what turned out to be their last one, which ended on a missed go-ahead field goal attempt in the 4th, the Hogs racked up 242 yards on drives that yielded no points.

Last week: 7⬌

8. John Mateer, Oklahoma

Mateer was mostly along for the ride in the Sooners’ 23-21 upset at Alabama, finishing with a season-low 161 scrimmage yards and declining to even attempt a pass of 20+ air yards, per PFF. Oklahoma’s 4 scoring drives in Tuscaloosa covered 23 yards (for a field goal set up by a big punt return); 31 yards (a short-field touchdown following a muffed punt); 41 yards (another field goal, this one from 52 yards to open the 3rd quarter); and 22 yards (yet another field goal, set up by a strip sack by the defense). Altogether, OU’s 212 total yards for the game represented its fewest in a win since a 2001 victory over Texas, which not coincidentally also featured a memorable defensive touchdown.

Still, Mateer made key plays with both his arm and legs to advance the effort, didn’t do anything to hurt it. The upshot is that the Sooners remain improbably but squarely on the Playoff track at 8-2. They will be favored in their last 2 games against Missouri and LSU, both of which will likely be starting backup quarterbacks. (See below.) Looking ahead to the postseason, the outlook for winning a hypothetical road Playoff game with an attack that currently ranks next-to-last in the SEC in total offense vs. Power 4 opponents is not very encouraging. But given how distant the possibility of crashing the field seemed just a couple weeks ago, Sooners fans will be more than happy to cross that bridge when they come to it.

Last week: 9

9. Arch Manning, Texas

Texas still has a chance to salvage a modicum of self-respect and/or momentum heading into the offseason against Arkansas and (especially) Texas A&M in Austin. But the story of Manning’s underwhelming debut as QB1 can be largely told by his struggles on the road. Saturday’s loss at Georgia dropped the Longhorns to 2-3 in true road games on the year, with both wins coming in overtime escapes against a couple of basement dwellers, Kentucky and Mississippi State. It didn’t help, either, that Manning spent so much of his time in those games stuck in comeback mode. Of the 11 regulation touchdowns Texas scored on the road, 8 came with the ‘Horns already trailing by double digits, including all 5 TDs in their 3 losses.

Last week: 8

10. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

Sellers reliably makes a play or two per game that remind you what he’s capable of when it all comes together. Against Texas A&M, it was a flawless, 51-yard dime to Vandrevius Jacobs for the opening strike in what would quickly escalate into a major upset in progress.

Otherwise, as usual, it was just kinda meh. The Gamecocks’ other big play of the first half, an 80-yard touchdown pass to Nyck Harbor, was a routine throw just past the sticks that Harbor turned into a viral highlight via YAC. After halftime, the offense did nothing whatsoever to alter the momentum of A&M’s furious 2nd-half comeback, and Carolina’s final possession with a chance to salvage a game-winning field-goal attempt ended with Sellers taking back-to-back sacks on 2nd and 3rd down and scrambling futilely out of bounds 10 yards short of the line to gain on 4th — the story of his sophomore campaign, in 3 plays.

Last week: 10⬌

11. Cutter Boley, Kentucky

Boley’s first start, a 35-13 loss to South Carolina in Week 4, was a disaster. Since, he’s been cromulent almost every time out, turning a QBR rating of 78.0 or better in 5 of the past 6 games. (The exception: A 10-3 win at Auburn in Week 10.) A 3-game November winning streak has 5-5 Kentucky a win away from bowl eligibility with Vanderbilt and Louisville on deck. That might or might not be enough to save Mark Stoops‘ job, but considering the state of affairs a month ago, the fact that it’s still in doubt at this late hour should be all the endorsement Boley needs to remain QB1 for the foreseeable future.

Last week: 12

12. Garrett Nussmeier or Michael Van Buren Jr., LSU

Van Buren went the distance Saturday in his first start as a Tiger, a come-from-behind, 23-22 win over Arkansas that was forgotten the second the clock hit triple zeroes. He’s in line to start again this weekend in an even more ephemeral date against Western Kentucky, pending Nussmeier’s status after he aggravated an abdominal injury that had reportedly bothered him all season prior to his benching in the Tigers’ Week 11 loss at Alabama. More important at this point, Van Buren followed up the win by expressing his love for Baton Rouge and pledging to stay to compete for the full-time job under the next head coach.

Last week: 11

13. Blake Shapen, Mississippi State

Defying calls to bench his 6th-year starter in favor of dynamic freshman Kamario Taylor, Jeff Lebby preserved the the status quo for a must-win game at Missouri to reach bowl eligibility. He was rewarded with one of Shapen’s worst outings as a Bulldog in a deflating, 49-27 loss. Looking exhausted and possibly hurt, Shapen came in at or near season lows for completion percentage (57.6), yards per attempt (6.0), passer rating (96.1) and QBR (36.3) while serving up 2 pick-6 INTs in the 2nd half that turned a competitive game into a laugher.

Afterwards, Lebby attributed the decision to stick with the vet to Shapen’s “decision-making and having the ability to not waste a play” in a tough road environment. Fair enough. With 2 weeks to prepare for the Egg Bowl and little hope of earning that elusive 6th win either way, the question at this point is pretty much academic.

Last week: 13⬌

14. DJ Lagway, Florida

Like most Florida fans, Lagway sounded well past ready to be done with the 2025 season following a 34-24 loss at Ole Miss, describing the past 3 months as “emotionally draining” in what a local reporter described as “a monotone voice, (while) staring at the bricks on the back of the wall.” After an encouraging opening half in Oxford, the Gators did nothing in the 2nd, when their only trip into Rebels territory ended on a tip-drill interception.

At 3-7, bowl eligibility is off the table, leaving only desultory rivalry dates against Tennessee and Florida State to endure before the big decision about Lagway’s future becomes the first order of business for the new head coach. Maybe that decision has already been made, on one end or the other. If not, a strong finish against the Vols and Noles – however unlikely – could still give both sides something to consider.

Last week: 15

15. Matt Zollers, Missouri

Mizzou fans are still holding out hope that they have not seen the last of Beau Pribula this season. But despite “early optimism” that Pribula has made enough progress rehabbing the ankle injury that’s sidelined him the past few game to potentially start this weekend against Oklahoma, Eli Drinkwitz tapped the brakes, telling reporters he expects Zollers to get the nod for the 3rd Saturday in a row. Either way, after leaning heavily on a resurgent ground game in Week 12 against the SEC’s worst rushing defense, Mississippi State, the Tigers will need more from whomever is behind center against the Sooners to make up the difference opposite the SEC’s best rushing defense in Norman.

Last week: 16

16. Deuce Knight, Auburn

What a journey it’s been at this position. Jackson Arnold‘s doomed tenure as QB1 officially ended with the end of Hugh Freeze‘s doomed tenure as head coach. The next man up, Stanford transfer Ashton Daniels, looked like a keeper his last time out, when he led the Tigers to a season-high 38 points in a shootout loss at Vanderbilt in Week 11. Under NCAA rules, however, keeping him means sitting him: The trip to Nashville was Daniels’ 3rd appearance of the season, leaving only 1 more before he burns his redshirt and, with it, his final year of eligibility. (He did not redshirt in any of his 3 seasons at Stanford, where he started 20 games.) Wisely, coaches have opted not to waste that appearance on a glorified scrimmage against an FCS patsy. Instead, Daniels will skip this weekend’s game against Mercer and return to the lineup for the Iron Bowl, thereby preserving another year on campus (and the paycheck that comes with it) in 2026.

That leaves Knight, 5-star gem of the Tigers’ 2025 recruiting class, who’s due for the first meaningful action of his career against the Bears. His debut will also serve as an audition – if not for the chance to start against Alabama, then to get a leg up on the competition for QB1 next year under a new head coach. Whether that competition will involve Daniels or an incoming transfer, or both, will be up to the next administration. For now, all he can do is look the part against the No. 6 team in the latest FCS rankings.

Last week: n/a

The post SEC QB Rankings, Week 13: Gunner Stockton is the quintessential Kirby Smart quarterback appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Still Kirby after all these years

Twelve Saturdays down, 3 to go before another year’s worth of hype, hope and speculation yields to cold, hard reality. For the 7 SEC teams whose postseason goals remain plausibly within reach, it’s gut-check time: In the absence of an obvious, week-in, week-out overlord, who has earned the benefit of the doubt for the long haul, and whose clock is on the verge of striking midnight? The Crunch-Time Credit Check is here to rank the contenders from the most bankable as the season hits the home stretch to the least: 

Right on time: Georgia. Like a lot of people, I’ve tended to judge the Dawgs mainly in terms of how they’ve regressed. It’s natural: Compared to Kirby Smart‘s best teams, the ’25 Dawgs have looked downright ordinary, routinely subjecting a fan base accustomed to dominance to slow starts and close calls. Through 7 SEC games, their average scoring margin in conference play was just 9.0 points per game, a steep decline from the championship-or-bust hey day. But with the stakes as high as they’ve been all season, Saturday night’s vintage, 35-10 romp over Texas was a convincing reminder that, by any other standard, Georgia still boasts the league’s highest ceiling and arguably its best chance to go all the way.

The case for a potential CFP run begins and ends with junior QB Gunner Stockton, who is giving off unmistakable Stetson Bennett vibes while making a late surge in the Heisman odds. Stockton was in his bag against the Longhorns, finishing 24-for-29 passing, accounting for all 5 UGA touchdowns (4 passing, 1 rushing), and turning in a 94.4 Total QBR rating, as the most talented roster in America started to turn the corner from rebuilding mode to bona fide contender. (For this time of year, it’s an unusually healthy roster, too.) Whether that will be enough to get them back to the SEC Championship Game for the 5th year in a row remains TBD, pending the outcomes of Alabama’s trip to Auburn, and Texas A&M’s trip to Texas. Either way, at 9-1 the Bulldogs are back on schedule to climb into the top 4 and claim 1 of the 4 first-round CFP byes that come with the distinction. Any remaining doubts about whether they’re still one of the teams with the potential to take it from there are receding quickly. 

⬌ Buckle up: Texas A&M. A conference win is a conference win, and when it’s as unhinged as Texas A&M’s wild, 31-30 comeback against South Carolina, you can’t blame the impulse to yada yada the Aggies’ miserable first half in favor of their triumph in the second. Still, the nagging thing about storming back from a 27-point halftime deficit is that first you have to find yourself facing a 27-point halftime deficit.

That chart doesn’t even begin to do justice to just how dramatic the u-turn was, especially on the part of A&M quarterback Marcel Reed. In the first half, Reed was a basket case, completing just 6-of-19 attempts with a pair of killer interceptions late in the half and a slapstick fumble that was returned for a Carolina touchdown. In fact, he was lucky it was only the 2 picks after serving up a series of tipped balls and pick-able throws that turned his own receivers into defenders. His surging Heisman odds abruptly plummeted in real time. In the second half, Reed was unstoppable, flipping the switch to lead 4 touchdown drives in as many possessions to erase the deficit less than 5 minutes into the 4th quarter. Those drives covered 75, 70, 80 and 98 yards, respectively, on a combined 27 plays. His resurgent Heisman odds were slightly better at the end of the day than they’d been at the start.

All well and good to preserve a perfect record and ensure your head coach gets paid accordingly. But having witnessed their starting quarterback descend rapidly into nuclear-meltdown mode, in the back of their minds Aggies fans had to be left wondering: Can we trust this guy with a championship on the line? Brief as it was — and as quickly as he was redeemed — the version of the team that flirted with full-blown collapse against a 20-point underdog is in there, just as surely as the version that cleaned up its mess.

Statistically, the odds of putting together consecutive halves of football that look that different is almost like flipping a coin that lands on tails 8 or 9 times in a row, then lands on heads 10 times in a row. Fortunately for the Aggies, football is not as random as flipping a coin. Unfortunately, the next series of misadventures against a Playoff-caliber opponent might not be so easily erased.

⬌ Trust but verify: Ole Miss. Last year, Ole Miss beat the 2 best teams on its schedule handily but blew its shot at the Playoff by losing 3 games it was favored to win. This year, the Rebels have left no room for doubt: Saturday’s 34-24 win over Florida secured their 3rd consecutive 10-win season — a first in school history — and moved them within 1 game of sewing up a CFP bid against flat-lining Mississippi State. Stranger things have happened in the Egg Bowl, but for once a good Ole Miss team has not shown any propensity for random flops. Instead, the nagging question as the Rebels shift into postseason mode is their ceiling against elite competition. They ran out of gas in the 4th quarter of their only loss against Georgia, a collapse that’s going to follow them until they prove it’s in no danger of becoming a habit.

Fool me once …: Alabama. Bama spent 2 months rebuilding the trust it blew in its opening-day loss at Florida State, and then 3 hours against Oklahoma on Saturday watching its efforts unravel. The Crimson Tide fairly dominated the Sooners statistically, racking up big advantages in total yards, first downs and time of possession. They also finished minus-3 in turnover margin, allowed 17 points off those giveaways, and missed a field goal in a game ultimately decided by 2 points.

Look, there is no sugar-coating a Bama loss under any circumstances. As Bama losses go, though, this one was not nearly as catastrophic as, say, last year’s loss to Oklahoma, a random beatdown at the hands of a much worse OU team that unofficially derailed Alabama’s Playoff chances. Unlike that one, this team still has all its larger goals in front of it, including the SEC Championship Game if it finishes off Auburn in the Iron Bowl. But is this team above taking another pipe to the kneecaps in Jordan-Hare Stadium, where Auburn has a long track record of giving the Tide all they can handle? As of Saturday morning, it wasn’t even a question. Now, it’s a must-win for Kalen DeBoer in more ways than one.

Buyer beware: Oklahoma. Credit where it’s due: Few if any teams in America have it in them to pull off back-to-back road wins at Tennessee and Alabama in consecutive weeks, style points be damned. The Sooners are built to win ugly, and they do, on the strength of the league’s No. 1 scoring defense and arguably the nation’s best kicker. The indispensable Tate Sandell is 18-of-19 on field goal attempts this season (the lone miss coming in OU’s Week 2 win over Michigan), and a perfect 6-for-6 from 50+ yards. Four of those successful bombs have come the past 2 weeks in the wins over the Vols and Tide.

That said, a pedestrian offense leaves little margin for error — not only in a hypothetical Playoff game, but in the process of punching a ticket, which is far from a foregone conclusion with dates against Missouri (in Norman) and LSU (in Baton Rouge) on deck. Two of Oklahoma’s 5 touchdowns against Tennessee and Bama came courtesy of the defense; the offense’s scoring drives in Tuscaloosa covered 23 yards (resulting in a field goal), 31 yards (a touchdown following a muffed punt), 41 yards (another field goal), and 22 yards (yet another field goal following a turnover). The defense’s success the past 2 weeks has been a quintessential bend-don’t-break effort, allowing 400+ yards in both games on a combined 5.6 yards per play. If it ever does break, there’s not much evidence at this point that the offense has the juice against a quality opponent to make up the difference.

⬌ No credit history: Vanderbilt. The Commodores might be on the wrong side of the Playoff bubble (see below), but it they’re also in position to create a serious headache for the CFP committee. Currently 8-2, they still have work to do against Kentucky (at home) and Tennessee (in Knoxville) to force the issue. If they do, though, the prospect of snubbing any 10-win outfit from the SEC — yes, even Vandy — is a nightmare scenario with no ready solution.

As it stands, the ‘Dores came in at No. 14 in last week’s committee rankings ahead of an open date. To make the final cut, they will probably have to climb into the top 10 over the next 2 weeks. Texas’ loss at Georgia helped their cause by dropping the Longhorns in the queue; Oklahoma’s win at Alabama definitely did not. Vanderbilt was counting on the Sooners to fall off the board, and they still could. (Missouri and/or LSU upsets over Oklahoma would be great for Vandy, both by knocking OU down a peg and by bolstering their wins over both sets of Tigers.) But in addition to Oklahoma, the Commodores also need a patchwork of upsets to clear the traffic immediately in front of them. A win at Tennessee in the regular-season finale might be enough to leapfrog the No. 13 team in last week’s rankings, Utah. Beyond that, they’re going to need a lot of help that, right now, they do not seem especially likely to get.

Burn notice: Texas. There are still people who will try to convince you that Texas, coming off its 3rd and most lopsided loss, has a puncher’s chance at stealing a CFP bid with wins over Arkansas and Texas A&M and some help. Mathematically, that might be true. (See below.) On the field, the Longhorns have shown us who they are from Day 1, and that is a team that has no business anywhere near the Playoff: (item No. 4). In 5 true road games, they failed to win a single one in regulation: Besides losses at Ohio State, Florida (woof) and Georgia, they also narrowly survived upset bids from also-rans Kentucky and Mississippi State in overtime. After Saturday’s wipeout loss in Athens, they’re sitting on a negative scoring differential vs. Power 5 opponents. It’s over, man.

Now, brighter days might be ahead. I’m still bullish on Arch Manning’s long-term potential, even if it takes quite a bit longer than expected. A hypothetical upset over Texas A&M in Austin would go a long way toward resetting the hype cycle in 2026. But given the Aggies’ cushion in the current standings, likely wouldn’t even drop them far enough to qualify as a spoiler.

Dude of the Week: Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy

Mississippi State’s defense came into the weekend struggling against the run, and Hardy proceeded to pound the Bulldogs into submission: 25 carries, 300 yards, 3 touchdowns, no mercy en route to a 49-27 blowout. Hardy powered his way into the top 5 of Mizzou’s single-season rushing list.

Five of Mizzou’s 6 offensive touchdown drives covered 5 plays or less, all of them featuring a run of 20+ yards by Hardy. By the end of the night, the Dogs were so demoralized they couldn’t so much as lay a hand on him. With that, he is back atop the leaderboard as the nation’s leading rusher.

Dud of the Week: Alabama special teams

The kicking game was a killer in Bama’s loss to Oklahoma. Tide allowed a 42-yard punt return that set up an OU field goal; fumbled a punt return that set up an OU touchdown; and missed a field goal at the end of the first half when a Sooner rusher leapt over the line to get a fingertip on the ball, leaving kicker Connor Talty in a cussin’ mood.

CFP Realpolitik

It’s that time of year, when the fog begins to lift and the outlines of the postseason picture begin to come into view. Each week down the home stretch, CFP Realpolitik will size up the pecking order from a strictly practical perspective.

There were a pair notable developments in the pecking order in Week 12. The big one was Oklahoma’s upset over Alabama, vaulting the Sooners into the driver’s seat for an at-large Playoff ticket if they close out the season with wins over Missouri and LSU. The other was Navy’s shootout win over South Florida in the American Athletic Conference, which not only knocked the Bulls out of the pole position for the token Group of 5 slot — USF was the only G5 team ranked last week by the CFP committee, at No. 24 — but almost certainly eliminated them from contention for the AAC title, as well. The new G5 frontrunner: James Madison, runaway favorite to win the Sun Belt. JMU checks in as 1 of 10 teams this week with better than 50% to make the field according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the first time this season a G5 contender has inched into the green. Of course, you can rely on SDS’ Playoff odds as well.

The chalk: Let’s set aside the G5 for a moment. In the power conferences, we’re down to 11 teams that control their fate for the other 11 spots:

• ACC: Georgia Tech, Virginia
• Big Ten: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
• Big 12: BYU, Texas Tech
• SEC: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

The most conspicuous absence from that list, obviously, is Notre Dame. With Saturday’s blowout win at Pittsburgh, the Fighting Irish all but clenched a 10-2 finish — their last 2 games are gimmes against ACC bottom-dwellers Syracuse and Stanford — and, with it, an at-large ticket for the second year in a row. FPI estimates their odds of making the cut at 61.2%, and frankly that seems conservative.

Still, assuming they take care of their business, there are a couple of conceivable ways the Irish could wind up left in the cold. The more likely scenario involves BYU stealing an auto bid in the Big 12: While there is no route for the Cougars to overtake Notre Dame for an at-large slot, they can still run the table through the Big 12 Championship Game, thereby bumping Big 12 frontrunner Texas Tech to the at-large column instead. If that happens while chalk holds elsewhere, the committee could face a situation where it is forced to choose 3 of the following teams and snub the 4th: Texas Tech (11-2 with a loss in the Big 12 title game), Notre Dame (10-2), Oklahoma (10-2), and the loser of the SEC Championship Game. (For the sake of argument, let’s say that’s Alabama at 10-3, the only scenario in which the SECCG loser might be on the bubble.) The committee signaled loud and clear last year that it is not inclined to punish a team that loses its conference championship game in favor of a team that was sitting at home on the couch. Oklahoma’s win over Bama should ensure that the Crimson Tide are not going to get ushered in while the Sooners get the shaft. That leaves … Notre Dame on the outside looking in.

The other, less likely scenario involves a reconsideration of Notre Dame’s head-to-head loss at Miami in the season-opener. The Hurricanes narrowed the gap between the teams last week, rising from 18th to 15th in the committee rankings while the Irish only improved one spot, from 10th to 9th. It’s likely to narrow again this week as Texas falls back, leaving open the possibility that Miami could creep close enough with wins over Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh to force the committee to take the head-to-head result into account if both teams finish with identical 10-2 records. Personally, I don’t see that happening, and given the Canes’ long-shot odds of making the ACC Championship Game with 2 conference losses, their path is probably closed. But the distance between The U and the Irish is worth keeping an eye on in the updated committee rankings on Tuesday night.

B1G chaos theory: The status quo in the Big Ten is straightforward. Ohio State and Indiana are Playoff locks, so much so that sportsbooks aren’t even offering odds to make the Playoff for either. Oregon is a lock if it wins out, which the Ducks are favored to do. If the next couple of weeks proceed according to plan, the only question mark is whether it will be the Buckeyes or Hoosiers claiming the top overall seed, to be determined in the Big Ten Championship Game.

But there is still a chance for all hell to break loose, courtesy of 2 teams lurking just back of the front-runners in the conference standings with prime upset opportunities over the next couple weeks: USC and Michigan, both of which sit at 8-2 overall and 6-1 in B1G play. First up, the Trojans can throw a serious kink in the proceedings this weekend against Oregon, whose résumé is not likely to hold up with a 2nd loss and no wins over currently ranked opponents. (The Ducks’ overtime triumph at then-No. 3 Penn State in Week 5 counts for very little at this point in the wake of the Nittany Lions’ subsequent collapse.) The Wolverines, of course, will get their shot at extending their 4-game winning streak against Ohio State in Week 14.

If USC wins its last 2 games vs. Oregon and UCLA to finish 10-2, the Trojans will have a claim for the seat at the table currently reserved for the Ducks. In that case, a Michigan upset over the Buckeyes could also send USC to the title game to face Indiana — we’re not even going to contemplate the infinitesimal odds of the Hoosiers losing their finale against last-place Purdue — on the strength of USC’s head-to-head win over Michigan in Week 7. Because of that loss, even with a hypothetical upset over OSU, the Wolverines have virtually no chance of crashing the championship game themselves. (Their only path to Indianapolis via tiebreaker would require an Indiana loss to Purdue, which again, no.) But they can do their part to make the committee’s job vastly more complicated.

Sorting out the Group of 5: I’ve held off breaking down the Group of 5 situation until there was some clarity at the top of the American Athletic. At first glance, there’s still a 4-way tie for first place in the conference standings, and the fact that none of those 4 teams play head-to-head down the stretch doesn’t help. But now that the traffic jam no longer includes USF, there is a light at the end of the tunnel: With the Bulls’ loss at Navy, it’s effectively down to a 2-team race between North Texas and Tulane. The Mean Green and Green Wave are in the driver’s seat to play in the AAC Championship Game, and both should cruise through the remainder of their respective conference slates.

If only it was as simple as reserving the automatic Group of 5 slot for the AAC champion. If it’s North Texas, it might be. At 9-1, UNT has already tied the school record for wins as a D-I program under 3rd-year coach Eric Morris and likely would not face much resistance to its claim as the top G5 team if it ran the table to finish 12-1 in the top G5 league.

If it’s Tulane, the debate is on. The Green Wave have the rep, including a top-10 finish in 2022 that culminated in a dramatic comeback to beat USC in the Cotton Bowl. The résumé is another story. Despite cracking the updated top 25 in the AP and Coaches’ polls, advanced metrics do not like the Wave at all: They rank 57th in FPI and 58th in SP+. Their two losses, a 45-10 beatdown at Ole Miss and a 48-26 flop at UT-San Antonio, were both blowouts. Their best wins, over Duke, East Carolina and Memphis, all came by single digits at home.

There’s a reason that the best odds in the G5 ranks this week belong not to any of the potential contenders in the AAC, but to James Madison. The Dukes (9-1 overall) are far and away the class of the Sun Belt, having already clinched the SBC’s East Division outright while outscoring conference opponents by 24 points per game. Their lone loss, a 28-14 decision at Louisville in Week 2, was a tie game in the 4th quarter. They rank well ahead of Tulane in both FPI (32nd) and SP+ (25th); after USF’s loss, they’re the top-ranked G5 team this week in both the AP and Coaches polls, coming in 1 spot ahead of North Texas in both.

Whether the committee sees it that way, we’ll find out on Tuesday night. JMU’s strength of schedule is marginal even by G5 standards, and it’s not going to get much better over the next few weeks against Washington State, Coastal Carolina, and whoever emerges as the winner of the Sun Belt West. Wherever the Dukes fall in relation to North Texas this week, if both teams run the table to finish 12-1 it will almost certainly be the Mean Green getting the nod in the end, if only by virtue of passing the tougher test on the final Saturday. They don’t have much control over that. Anybody other than UNT on the other side of the debate, though, and they’re going to make it as difficult as they can to be denied.

Yeah, extra demerits to Talty for venting his frustration on the long snapper. He got it there on time and the holder got it down with the laces out. That was Talty’s sixth miss of the season, but the first that mattered.

Notebook

1.) Oklahoma’s pick-6 touchdown off Ty Simpson was Brent Venables doing what he does best: Dialing up an exotic blitz that leaves the opposing blocking scheme grasping at air. Alabama lined up in an empty backfield with a running back motioning across the formation and no backs or receivers in pass protection. Oklahoma showed pre-snap pressure, threatening to send 6 rushers vs. 5 Bama o-linemen. Simpson knows right away there is potentially 1 more rusher than his OL can block, and the ball must come out immediately to a hot receiver.

Instead of bringing all 6 rushers, though, Oklahoma brings just 4: 2 on the right side of the line, 1 on the left, with a blitzing linebacker, Kip Lewis, charging right up the gut. Both the edge defender and linebacker threatening to bring heat on the left side of the line drop into coverage instead. Right away, you can see the confusion this creates in Alabama’s o-line — especially veteran center Parker Brailsford (No. 72), arguably the most reliable member of the front, who is so preoccupied with the slanting nose tackle lined up directly across from him that he ignores Lewis in the A-gap. Meanwhile, neither right guard Wilkin Formby (No. 75) nor right tackle Michael Carroll (No. 64) is in any position to block down without turning loose an oncoming DL.

The result: Alabama’s 3 best linemen — Brailsford, left tackle Kadyn Proctor and left guard Kam Dewberry — all effectively blocking ghosts while Lewis takes advantage of a free run right up the hash marks into the quarterback’s teeth. Simpson, panicking, releases the ball just as Lewis arrives into what he hopes is an open throwing lane left vacated by the blitzing linebacker …

…but is in fact patrolled by a safety, Eli Bowen, who easily steps in front of an off-target throw and takes it the other way for the biggest play to date of the Sooners’ season. Whatever else Venables brings to the table as a head coach, as a defensive coordinator he’s still worth every penny.

2.) Georgia’s surprise onside kick in the 4th quarter against Texas didn’t change the trajectory of the game so much as it put it on ice. The advanced box score courtesy of gameonpaper.com doesn’t even list the onside kick among the biggest swing plays in terms of EPA or win percentage. But it was certainly a demoralizer in real time, turning a close game into a laugher in short order. Just a few minutes prior to the kick, the Longhorns had capitalized on their lone takeaway of the game to cut Georgia’s lead to 14-10 at the end of the 3rd quarter. By the time Arch Manning touched the ball again, the ‘Horns trailed 28-10 midway through the 4th and stood no chance of closing the gap.

3.) Manning was reduced to deer-in-the-headlights mode by Georgia’s pass rush, but his supporting cast did him no favors. The ground game was nonexistent, and PFF cited Texas receivers for 5 dropped passes. Two were by Manning’s favorite target, Ryan Wingo, 1 of which brought the Longhorns’ opening possession to an end on what should have been a routine grab that moved the sticks. The ‘Horns were forced to settle for a field goal instead, and didn’t touch the ball again with a lead. That seems like a fair summation of where Wingo’s game stands at the end of his sophomore campaign: Electric with the ball in his hands, but very inconsistent when it comes to hanging on to it in the first place.

4.) South Carolina’s offense played its best game of the season against Texas A&M, finishing with season-highs for total offense (388) and yards per play (6.1) vs. any opponent. Still, given one last chance to respond to A&M’s frantic 2nd-half comeback, the Gamecocks’ beleaguered o-line ensured LaNorris Sellers didn’t stand a chance.

The story of Sellers’ sophomore campaign, in 3 plays. After the game, Shane Beamer described rampant online speculation about his quarterback’s imminent departure at the end of the season as “horse garbage.” After enduring a historic collapse against the No. 3 team in the country to fall to 1-7 in conference play, whether Beamer will still be in any position to influence Sellers’ decision when the time comes is TBD.

5.) There was nothing notable about Arkansas’ 23-22 loss at LSU, the Razorbacks’ 8th straight defeat this season and 9th straight in SEC play dating back to last year. The consistently narrow margins in those defeats, however, are remarkable. That was the Hogs’ 7th loss by single digits this season, and the 4th in which they’ve led in the 4th quarter. Their 6 conference losses have come by a grand total of 25 points — 18 points less than their only blowout loss, a 56-13 disaster against Notre Dame.

Moment of Zen of the Week

The post Monday Down South: Georgia proves, again, it’s still the team to trust the most appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Game of the Week: Texas at Georgia (-5.5)

At various points this season, Texas and Georgia have lived dangerously enough that both seemed on the verge of tumbling out of national relevance. Still, after weeks of close calls, wild comebacks, and overtime escapes, Dawgs-Horns arrives more or less as advertised in August: A collision of top-10 teams with SEC championship and Playoff hopes intact as the schedule hits the home stretch. Surprisingly for a dog-eat-dog league that has dominated both the polls and TV ratings, it will be just the second matchup of the year between SEC teams ranked in the top 10 at kickoff, joining Georgia’s 43-35 win over Ole Miss in Week 8.

There is more urgency for the Longhorns. By now, though, they should be used to it — their season has been on the brink virtually from the start. Their first loss, a 14-7 snoozer at Ohio State on opening day, has been mostly forgiven, if not forgotten. Their second loss, a 29-21 flop at Florida in Week 6, has not. That setback sent the ‘Horns briefly plummeting out of the Top 25 altogether, and the climb back has been fraught. Texas restored some credibility a week later in a convincing, defensively-driven win over then-undefeated Oklahoma in the Red River Showdown. From there, it all nearly came crashing down again in Week 8, in an overtime escape at Kentucky; again in Week 9, in a frantic 4th-quarter comeback at Mississippi State after trailing by 17 points at the end of the 3rd; and again in Week 10, when the ‘Horns found themselves on the other end of a frantic 4th-quarter comeback by Vanderbilt that came up just short.

They have been surviving, rarely thriving. Their preseason No. 1 ranking has long been reduced to a footnote. But then, here they are, their larger goals still tentatively intact and their fate in their own hands in mid-November. There are much worse fates than merely surviving.

For its part, Georgia has not always been its best self, either. Rarely, in fact: In addition to its lone defeat against Alabama — the end of a 33-game home wining streak in Athens that started in 2019 — the Bulldogs have trailed in the 4th quarter in 3 of their 6 conference wins, nail-biters against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Florida; they also spotted Auburn a 10-0 lead in Week 7. If not for a missed field goal at the end of regulation in Knoxville and a couple of borderline, potentially game-changing calls in their favor against both Auburn and Florida, the Dawgs could easily be facing the same do-or-die circumstances as Texas, or worse.

As it stands, though, their Playoff position is about as secure as it can be, with enough margin for error at this point to assume they could weather a second loss to the Longhorns or Georgia Tech in the regular-season finale without forfeiting their ticket. Of course, they have no intention of putting that assumption to the test. Last week’s 41-21 romp at Mississippi State was Georgia’s most complete outing of the season, and arguably the first time the 2025 Dawgs have looked like a vintage Kirby Smart outfit from the championship years for the better part of 60 minutes. If that was a sign of things to come, this team still has a chance to etch its name into the ledger alongside some of Smart’s best, beginning on Saturday night.

When Georgia has the ball: Is the resurgent ground game sustainable?

Writing about Georgia’s offense the past couple years under offensive coordinator Mike Bobo has tended to involve a lot of references to screen passes and liberal use of the phrase “extension of the running game.” But last week’s win in Starkville was an old-fashioned exhibition of Running the Dang Ball, no caveats or accessories required. Georgia pounded Mississippi State to the tune of 303 yards rushing on 6.9 per carry, its biggest number on the ground vs. an SEC opponent in nearly 5 years. Most of that output came right up the gut, courtesy of sophomore Nate Frazier, who benefited from the kind of gaping running lanes that UGA backs have not enjoyed in a while. Per Pro Football Focus, 106 of Frazier’s 181 yards on the afternoon came before contact, an average of 8.8 yards per carry.

If you’re into the finer points of o-line play (and I know you are), Georgia’s front is interesting. For one thing, they’re characteristically huge, averaging 325 pounds per man; the runt of the group, center Drew Bobo — Mike’s son — is listed at 305. For another, they’re uncharacteristically healthy. After cycling through multiple lineups over the first half of the season, they’ve rolled out the same starting unit now in 3 consecutive games, with senior Earnest Greene III returning from a nagging back injury to solidify a revolving door at right tackle. His presence has given the Bulldogs the luxury of bringing the “sixth man,” 360-pound freshman Juan Gaston, off the bench, and of mixing and matching lineups over the course of a game. Against Mississippi State, Gaston split reps with Greene at right tackle and with fellow freshman Dontrell Glover at right guard; Glover also split snaps at left guard with Micah Morris. The upshot is a deep group that is coming into its own at the right time, limiting wear and tear, and appears to be capable of weathering future injuries.

Bullying Mississippi State into submission is one thing; doing it to Texas is another. The Longhorns lead the SEC and rank 2nd nationally in rushing defense, allowing just 78 yards per game on 2.4 yards per carry. Only Florida (159 yards on 4.3 per carry) has made any kind of sustained headway; their 3 ranked opponents, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, mostly ran repeatedly into a burnt orange wall. Sacks factor relatively heavily into that output; Texas is tied for 2nd nationally in sacks and 4th in negative yardage as a result. But so does rolling out a front full of guys like Colin Simmons, Ethan Burke, Hero Kanu and Anthony Hill Jr. who grade out just as solidly against the run as they do rushing the passer. The return of rock-solid safety Michael Taaffe from a two-game injury absence nudges the bar that much higher. Before his injury, Taaffe boasted the top PFF grade against the run of any SEC defender.

When Texas has the ball: Can Georgia speed up Arch Manning’s mental clock?

Manning made a brief cameo in last year’s 30-15 loss against Georgia in the regular season, coming on briefly at the end of the first half for a couple of doomed possessions that ended in a punt and a fumble, respectively. He was memorably caught in the aftermath sitting on the sideline alongside starter Quinn Ewers, both of them wearing shell-shocked expressions as UGA took a 20-0 lead into halftime.

The current version of Georgia’s pass rush is nowhere near what it was last year, or most years — the Bulldogs currently rank 122nd nationally and dead last in the SEC with only 11 sacks. What little pressure the Dawgs have managed has come almost exclusively from blitzing inside linebackers, not the d-line. That’s par for the course against Texas: Defenses have come after Manning, who has faced blitzes on an SEC-high 46.8% of his total drop-backs, per PFF, and endured more QB pressures on those snaps (68) than all but 1 other FBS quarterback.

His last time out, against Vanderbilt in Week 10, the solution was to get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible. Coming off a week in the concussion protocol, Manning embraced the Ewers self-preservation playbook, setting a season-high for attempts behind the line of scrimmage (12) and a season-low for average time to throw (2.42 seconds, per PFF). More than 75% of his 328 passing yards against the Commodores came after the catch — aided by a pitiful tackling performance by the Vandy defense — including a 75-yard chunk on the first snap of the game.

A midseason reversion to Ewers Ball was a little bit ironic given just how eager ‘Horns fans were to trade screens and RPOs for more downfield explosiveness, and just how much of the preseason hype cycle anticipated Manning’s ability to generate it. Steve Sarkisian made the point a few weeks back, conceding that Arch’s deer-in-the-headlights moments in the early going were partly the result of a deliberate plan to stretch the field. Over the first 6 games, a little more than 20% of Manning’s attempts covered 20+ air yards, one of the highest rates in the conference. Over the past 3 games, that number is just 8.5%, among the lowest rates. He was 0-for-3 throwing downfield against Vandy, in what was widely hailed as a redemptive performance.

As reassuring as it was to watch a confident, efficient Manning operating in his comfort zone behind a (finally) healthy o-line, Sarkisian’s promise to “dig deep” into his team’s tendencies and issues during the ensuing off week should include some ideas for reigniting the downfield spark without leaving his franchise quarterback vulnerable. (Not to pick on a freshman, but leaving struggling guard Nick Brooks on the bench would be a good start; the OL looked like a different unit against Vanderbilt without him in the lineup.) The arrow is pointing up, but we have yet to see the complete package.

Wild card: Texas WR/PR Ryan Niblett

Where would the Longhorns be without this guy? A former blue-chip who has switched from offense to defense and back in an effort to get on the field, Niblett has finally made his mark in Year 3 on special teams, emerging as arguably college football’s only clutch punt returner. He iced the Oklahoma game with a 75-yard touchdown return in the 4th quarter; set up 2 of Texas’ 3 scoring drives in regulation at Kentucky with a pair of returns covering 45 and 43 yards, respectively; and completed the comeback at Mississippi State on an improbable, 79-yard return that sent the game to overtime.

Georgia is not in the business of allowing long punt returns, or any punt returns: Long-tenured punter Brett Thorson has allowed only 3 returns this year, and only 18 over his 4-year career; in 2023, opponents didn’t attempt to return a single punt. If there’s anyone who understands the assignment “do not put the ball in No. 21’s hands under any circumstances,” it should be Thorson. Still, if Niblett does get a chance, watch out.

The verdict …

Some good news for the Longhorns: They’re as healthy as you can be this time of year, turning in what may be the first clean injury report since the SEC began mandating them. Some bad news: They’ve yet to win a road game in regulation, heading into a stadium where Georgia has been virtually unbeatable since the pandemic.

There’s also the lingering memory of last year’s meetings, both won by Georgia, the first in fairly dominant fashion. The second, a come-from-behind, 22-19 win in overtime in the SEC Championship Game, was Gunner Stockton‘s first meaningful appearance as the Bulldogs’ quarterbacks after Carson Beck was knocked out of the game on the last play of the first half. Stockton acquitted himself well for an underclassman just getting his feet wet, overseeing 3 extended scoring drives in the second half and the game-winning TD drive in overtime. He’s come into his own as a starter, especially in Georgia’s come-from-behind, shootout wins over Tennessee and Ole Miss, his 2 best games when UGA badly needed them. Stockton enters the weekend ranked 2nd nationally in Total QBR and 3rd in EPA, although not quite as loftily in other categories. All eyes on Saturday night will be on Manning, but it’s just as likely the quarterback they really need to be acquainted with as the postseason approaches is the one on the other side.

Prediction: • Georgia 31 | Texas 24

You can trade this game on Kalshi, a prediction market that is legal in all 50 US States:

Oklahoma at Alabama (-6.5)

What’s more shocking: That Alabama’s ground game is barely functional, or that it … kinda doesn’t seem to matter?

Actually, “barely functional” might be giving the Tide’s performance in last week’s 20-9 win over LSU too much credit. Between them, Bama’s top 2 backs, Daniel Hill and Jamarion Miller, combined for a meager 34 yards and a single first down on 15 carries, managing a long gain of just 7 yards. Only a 17-yard run by QB Ty Simpson (his only positive gain) supplied any spark whatsoever against a Tigers D missing its best player. That was their worst rushing effort of the season, but it was hardly a departure. The Tide have topped out in conference play with 146 yards (including sacks) on 3.8 yards per carry against Vanderbilt. Altogether, they’ve yet to crack 150 or 4.0 per carry against a power-conference opponent, or to come particularly close outside of the win over the Commodores.

There’s the rub: Alabama is still winning — largely on Simpson’s hyper-efficient right arm, and lately with the defense, which is not a vintage Bama unit but does lead the SEC at 18.3 points per game allowed in conference play. Take a coast-to-coast pick-6 in the Tennessee game off the ledger, and Bama’s offense has yet to top 30 points in conference play. But the defense has yet to allow more than 24.

Alabama fans, who have spent most of the past 2 decades watching their ream run the ball more of less at will most of the time, are understandably concerned whether that’s sustainable. Kalen DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb may be slightly less concerned: The pattern and output closely tracks with their 2023 Washington team that went 14-0 en route to the CFP Championship Game, which averaged just 122.2 yards per game on 4.3 per carry against Power 5 opponents; excluding one monster outlier against USC, that number plummeted to just 106.0 ypg. In the end, the Huskies managed just 46 yards in their eventual CFP title game loss to Michigan, on just 2.3 per carry. But they made it to the title game.

There’s more than one way to generate the equivalent of a viable ground game without actually moving bodies between the tackles, whether it’s via the quick passing game or a mobile quarterback, a la Jalen Milroe, Bama’s leading rusher in 2024 even after subtracting negative yardage for sacks. Simpson is not a statue, but he’s certainly no Milroe, either. He is a Heisman favorite, however. The less the Tide trust the backs to keep the sticks moving, the more pressure that continues to put on Simpson to make good decisions and accurate throws every time. So far, he’s been right enough and accurate enough to keep them getting by. At some point, it’s gotta be nice to know you have the option of simply lining up and pounding out a first down when you need one.

Prediction: • Alabama 28 | Oklahoma 20

You can also trade this game on Kalshi, a prediction market that is legal in all 50 US States:

South Carolina at Texas A&M (-19.5)

It’s a testament to just how impressive LaNorris Sellers was at the end of the 2024 regular season that, a year later, he remains a fixture of both mock drafts and transfer portal speculation despite exhibiting little more than a whiff of that potential in 2025. It’s also a testament to just how little help he’s had from his surrounding cast, especially an undermanned, injury-plagued offensive line. Sellers has been under as much duress this season as any quarterback in America: He’s faced pressure on an SEC-worst 44.7% of his total drop-backs, per PFF, and has taken an FBS-worst 33 sacks. Half of those sacks have come in South Carolina’s 3 SEC road losses at Missouri, LSU and Ole Miss alone. At one point, an analytics company estimated he covered a total distance of nearly 900 yards in the Gamecocks’ midseason loss in Baton Rouge, a game in which he officially finished with 19 yards rushing.

Obviously, that does not bode well opposite a Texas A&M pass rush tied for the national lead in sacks. The Aggies remember Sellers well from last year’s meeting in Columbia, a 44-20 upset that served as a catalyst for Carolina’s November surge. Sellers accounted for 350 total yards and 3 touchdowns in that game in a breakout performance. If there’s any trace of that guy left in him, he’s running out of time to summon it to the surface before he has some very big decisions to make about his future.

Prediction: Texas A&M 32 | • South Carolina 17

You can also trade this game on Kalshi, a prediction market that is legal in all 50 US States:

Florida at Ole Miss (-14.5)

Ole Miss can effectively sew up a Playoff spot with a win over Florida, a sentence that might inspire a minor bout of PTSD for the Rebels. They were in a similar position at this point on the calendar last year, when they choked away an all-but-assured CFP ticket in a 24-17 loss in Gainesville that’s haunted them ever since. At least it’s possible to make some sense of that flop in hindsight: It came on the road, against a rejuvenated Florida team coming off a season-salvaging upset over LSU, in a game that Ole Miss dominated statistically except for going 0-for-3 in the red zone. This time around, blowing it at home against the zombie corpse version of the Gators – a 3-6 outfit that has already fired its head coach and, based on last week’s 38-7 debacle at Kentucky, apparently packed it in for the season – would be inexcusable under any circumstances. 

Prediction: • Ole Miss 34 | Florida 16

You can also trade this game on Kalshi, a prediction market that is legal in all 50 US States:

Mississippi State at Missouri (-7.5)

If you find an over/under on the number of pass attempts in this game by Missouri QB Matt Zollers, take the under. Zollers seriously struggled last week in his first career start against Texas A&M, finishing 3-for-15 on attempts beyond the line of scrimmage. (Not for nothing, all 3 completions went to fellow freshman/emerging dude Donovan Olugbode, and PFF filed all three in the “contested” column.) Meanwhile, despite diminishing returns over the past month, Mizzou still boasts the SEC’s top rushing offense for the season, as well as the conference’s leading rusher, Ahmad Hardy. Hardy and Jamal Roberts both went over 100 yards on the ground in the loss to A&M, on a combined 7.3 yards per carry. Hardy joined Mizzou’s list of 1,000-yard rushers. That was against one of the league’s better rushing defenses, in a game the Tigers trailed throughout. Against the league’s worst rushing defense on Saturday, there is no reason to put the ball in the air except as a last resort.

Unlike Missouri, where Zollers is the last scholarship quarterback left standing, if Mississippi State decides to tap a rookie behind center it will be by choice. Coach Jeff Lebby is going out of his to avoid framing it that way, insisting earlier this week that sixth-year vet Blake Shapen remains the starter — as long as he’s “truly healthy.” Shapen has exited each of the Bulldogs’ last two games against Arkansas and Georgia following big hits; he ultimately returned to lead a fourth-quarter rally in Fayetteville in Week 10, but remained on the sideline last week with the score already well out of hand. In both cases, touted freshman backup Kamario Taylor looked the part off the bench, accounting for 2 touchdowns in Shapen’s absence against the Hogs (one rushing, one passing) and all 3 of State’s touchdowns against the Dogs (all rushing). Taylor is a significantly more dynamic athlete than Shapen and wields a bigger arm, connecting on the Bulldogs’ longest downfield completion in both games. As far as the locals are concerned, his time is now.

But only if Lebby is willing to start the clock. As of midweek, Shapen was listed as “probable” on the initial injury report, meaning he will almost certainly be available. Regardless of whether that meets the “truly healthy” standard Lebby set at the beginning of the week, it does give him cover to give the freshman the nod on Saturday night without technically calling it a benching. If that’s what he needs to flip the switch, State fans will take it.

Prediction: Missouri 27 | • Mississippi State 23

You can also trade this game on Kalshi, a prediction market that is legal in all 50 US States:

Arkansas at LSU (-5.5)

The Battle for the Boot is a rare collision of interim head coaches on both sidelines. Which side wants it less? 

Arkansas, at least, has been resigned to its limbo state since September, and has remained reasonably competitive in the meantime under Bobby Petrino; the Razorbacks are 0-4 on Petrino’s watch, but those losses have come by a combined 18 points, and Arkansas led in the 4th quarter in each of the past 2. The Hogs are still capable of scoring 30 points at a reliable clip behind dual-threat QB Taylen Green, even while just as reliably giving up 35. LSU, on the other hand, looked disheveled and disinterested offensively in last week’s loss at Alabama, the Tigers’ first outing under Frank Wilson, and may be without their best player, junior LB Whit Weeks, for the 4th consecutive game. (Weeks remains questionable with a nagging ankle injury.) Wilson has already promised a musical-chairs approach at quarterback between the struggling Garrett Nussmeier and backup Michael Van Buren. And whatever home-field advantage Tiger Stadium usually offers will not be in effect for a meaningless game slated for an 11:45 am kickoff. If anything, the energy surrounding the program is so dysfunctional right now it’s just as likely to work against them.

Prediction: • Arkansas 29 | LSU 26

You can also trade this game on Kalshi, a prediction market that is legal in all 50 US States:

New Mexico State at Tennessee (-40.5)

Nothing to see here. Tennessee is 18-1 in regular-season nonconference games under Josh Heupel, outscoring opponents on average by 40 points per game. The lone defeat came in Heupel’s second game as head coach, a 41-34 loss against Pittsburgh in September 2021 in which Tennessee lost 3 fumbles. (That was also the game in which Hendon Hooker temporarily replaced an injured Joe Milton III at quarterback, and then never gave the job back.) Pitt was also on the other side of the Vols’ narrowest nonconference win in that span, an overtime thriller the following year. Their closest call since: A 30-13 decision over Austin Peay in September 2023. New Mexico State, which has lost 6 of its past 7, is no threat to claim to bump the Governors from their perch. The only drama is whether Joey Aguilar (2,737 yards) puts it in the air enough to become Tennessee’s next 3,000-yard passer.

Prediction: Tennessee 48 | • New Mexico State 13

This game also is available to trade on Kalshi, a prediction market that is legal in all 50 US States:

Tennessee Tech at Kentucky (n/a)

Kentucky (4-5) is counting on a routine win Saturday to move one step closer to bowl eligibility, and to punting (again) on a decision about Mark Stoops‘ future. Tennessee Tech has bigger fish to fry. At 10-0, the Golden Eagles – perennial also-rans in the Ohio Valley Conference – are enjoying probably the best season in school history. Out of nowhere, they’ve outscored opponents by nearly 30 points per game while climbing to no. 6 in the FCS rankings. They’re on the brink of claiming their first outright conference title since 1972. After that, it will be on to the FCS playoffs for the first time since a one-and-done exit in 2011, Tech’s only previous appearance. This is a program where no head coach has left with a winning record in more than 40 years. Stunning the 12th-place team in the SEC to preserve the zero in the loss column would be just a cherry on top.

Prediction: Kentucky 31 | Tennessee Tech 14

Off this week: Auburn, Vanderbilt

Scoreboard

Week 11 record: 6-0 straight-up | 4-1 vs. spread
Season record: 83-17 straight-up | 44-50 vs. spread

The post Week 12 SEC Primer: Season on the brink, Texas puts its Playoff hopes on the line at Georgia appeared first on Saturday Down South.

1. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt

Pavia remains a long shot in the Heisman race, and any chance he has of punching a ticket to NYC as a finalist will have more to do with his one-in-a-million career trajectory than his stat line. But if there were any doubts about how he stacks up on paper, he’s put them to bed the past 2 weeks. Saturday’s back-and-forth, overtime win over Auburn was arguably the best game of his career, and his team needed it to be. After nearly erasing a 24-point deficit against Texas in Week 10, Pavia rallied the Commodores from an early 2-touchdown hole against the Tigers and kept trading blows until Vandy was the last team standing. He set career highs for passing yards (377), rushing yards (112) and EPA (15.4), turned in his best ever passer rating (201.7) against an SEC opponent, and finished with his best rating in terms of Total QBR (95.7) since posting a 96.0 rating last year’s historic upset over Alabama.

Just like that, he’s ascending the leaderboards. For the season, Pavia ranks 6th nationally in Total QBR, 5th in EPA, 4th in passer rating, 3rd in passing success rate, 2nd in overall PFF grade, tied for 2nd in total touchdowns, and No. 1 in total yards. He’s accounted for 76.5% of Vanderbilt’s total offense in SEC play, the highest individual share in the conference.

The ‘Dores probably still need to beat Kentucky and Tennessee and sew up a Playoff bid to keep his dark-horse campaign alive. But that is well within the realm of possibility. And for all of the more compelling things about him, the numbers are only getting harder to dismiss. At the very least, any voters looking for an excuse to leave him off their ballots are going to have to come up with another one.

Last week: 2

2. Ty Simpson, Alabama

Simpson puts impressive plays on tape nearly every time out, but like a great jazz musician it’s the throws he doesn’t make that really set him apart: With 1interception in 296 attempts, he’s on pace for the lowest interception rate (0.34%) in SEC history. Through 9 games, Simpson has already attempted more passes than the current record holder, South Carolina’s Connor Shaw, who threw a single pick in 284 attempts (0.35%) in 2013. Per sports-reference.com, no major-conference quarterback has ever thrown 20+ touchdowns in a season with a lower INT rate.

Of course, sustaining that ratio throughout what Bama expects to be an extended postseason run is another story — the Tide could play up to 6 more games, which comes out to something like 200 attempts, any one of which could be the one that knocks him off the record pace. Then again, when the Heisman contender promised after the first pick to never throw another one, maybe he meant it.

Last week: 1

3. Gunner Stockton, Georgia

Just when they resigned to a weekly diet of shootouts and comebacks, the Bulldogs delivered arguably their first vintage performance of the season, a 41-21 beatdown at Mississippi State in which they piled up 300 yards rushing and generally did whatever they pleased against an outmanned MSU defense. After spotting the Bulldogs a 7-point lead to open the game (a pattern I’m beginning to think of as akin to a baseball hitter habitually taking the first strike), Georgia ripped off 38 straight points, including 5 consecutive touchdown drives in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Stockton’s right arm was responsible for 3 of those scores, including a season-long 64-yard strike. That marked his 3rd consecutive game with multiple TD passes and his 5th with a QBR rating over 90.0, tied with Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza for the most of any FBS quarterback.

Last week: 3⬌

4. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M

In a remarkable coincidence, the 4 guys beginning to separate from the pack in the Heisman race according to the betting markets just so happen to be the starting quarterbacks for the top 4 teams in every poll. Incredible how that lines up. For Reed’s part, at least, his face-of-the-program status is doing more work right now than his production. Among SEC starters, he ranks 5th in efficiency; 6th in both Total QBR and EPA; 7th in passing success rate; and 11th in overall PFF grading. If they were really serious about the “most outstanding” part, voters determined to rep the Aggies on their ballot would be considering SEC sack leader Cashius Howell instead.

At any rate, Reed is doing everything his very balanced team needs him to do, and improving as the season unfolds. He has especially thrived on the road. Most young quarterbacks are just trying to survive in hostile territory, but Reed has been at his best: A&M’s 4 road trips this season at Notre Dame, Arkansas, LSU and Missouri are his highest-rated games according to Total QBR, yielding at least 250 total yards and multiple touchdown passes in all 4. His rating in Saturday’s 38-17 win at Mizzou was a stellar 90.1 — the best by an opposing quarterback against the Tigers since the guy Reed replaced as QB1, Conner Weigman, posted a 94.1 in an even more lopsided win last year in College Station.

Last week: 4⬌

5. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

Ole Miss can effectively sew up a Playoff berth this weekend against Florida, a sentence which might trigger some minor PTSD from last year’s choke job in Gainesville that cost the Rebels a slot that seemed like a foregone conclusion. That upset looked less shocking in retrospect, considering that a) it came in the Swamp; b) the Gators were coming off a catalyzing upset over LSU the previous week; and c) Ole Miss failed to score on any of its three trips inside the red zone. This time around, losing to the current zombie corpse version of Florida in Oxford would be inexcusable from any angle. • Last week: 5⬌

6. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee

No quarterback in America takes better advantage of play-action than Aguilar. Per PFF, he’s the only FBS quarterback with at least 100 drop-backs who has employed play-action on more than 50% of them, resulting in more completions (153), yards (1,770), touchdowns (13) and what PFF graders log as “big-time throws” (12) than any other Power 4 passer on play-action reps. His completion percentage jumps by 16.4 points on play-action attempts vs. straight drop-backs, the widest gap in the country; his average yards per attempt improves by 4.9 yards, which ranks 3rd. In his defense, he has also had more passes dropped (19) on straight drop-backs than any other quarterback, which goes some ways to making sense of those margins.

Last week: 6⬌

7. Taylen Green, Arkansas

The Davey O’Brien Award sent out ballots this week for voters to select 16 semifinalists for the nation’s best quarterback. Green, who ranks in the top 5 nationally in Total QBR, EPA, overall PFF grade and total offense — and whose team is averaging more points per game in SEC play than Playoff contenders Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas and Vanderbilt — wasn’t listed among the several dozen candidates. Not even an option! Arkansas’ defense is so bad, it’s rendered its prolific quarterback completely invisible.

Last week: 7⬌

8. Arch Manning, Texas

Manning made a brief cameo in last year’s 30-15 loss against Georgia in the regular season, coming on briefly at the end of the first half for a couple of doomed possessions that ended in a punt and a fumble, respectively. He was memorably caught in the aftermath sitting on the sideline alongside starter Quinn Ewers, both of them wondering what happened and how to get the ball out of their hand quicker. It worked against the ‘Dores, thanks in part to a sloppy tackling-in-space effort by the Vandy defense. With the Longhorns’ Playoff hopes hanging by a thread in Athens, the margin for error will be considerably slimmer.

Last week: 8⬌

9. John Mateer, Oklahoma

Mateer’s downfield accuracy has plummeted since returning from the hand injury that briefly sidelined him in late September, although in fairness that likely has less to do with anything going on hand-wise than with the uptick in the strength of schedule. A open date ahead of this weekend’s must-win trip to Alabama arrived at the right time to move past any lingering stiffness. The Sooners desperately need the guy briefly looked like a Heisman candidate back in September to make his triumphant return before the window closes on their dwindling Playoff chances.

Last week: 9⬌

10. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

It was about this point on the calendar last year that Sellers achieved liftoff, making the leap from marginal starter to rising star over the course of a 6-game winning streak to end the regular season. This year, the Gamecocks are limping into the closing stretch with a 1-6 record in SEC play, the most anemic offense in a league full of anemic offenses, and less than zero momentum ahead of this weekend’s trip to Texas A&M. Yes, negative momentum. The offensive coordinator and o-line coach have already been forced to walk the plank, amid speculation that Shane Beamer might be on the first available flight to Virginia Tech at year’s end. Lots of eyes are still on the massively talented and equally frustrating Sellers, who is being sized up as both a potential draft pick and a potential target in the portal. But he’s running out of time to turn this season into anything other than a total loss.

Last week: 11

11. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

I was groping for the right word for Nussmeier’s performance against Alabama, and keep coming back to “inert” — dormant; not being in a state of use, activity, or employment.

I mean, he was out there. He was busily engaged in quarterback stuff, or appeared to be. On paper, he actually finished 18-for-21 passing, good for the best completion percentage of the season (85.7%) vs. an SEC defense. If you didn’t see it, that might sound impressive. If you did, you know it was anything but. It was more like watching a glitchy simulation unfold on an old video game that keeps dialing up the same busted screen play no matter how many times it gets snuffed out.

Of those 18 completions, 11 came on attempts behind the line of the scrimmage, per PFF, all but 1 of them screens. Nussmeier’s average depth of target on all attempts was a grim 2.9 yards, well below his already conservative ADOT of 7.3 yards for the season. He managed just 6.7 yards per completion. (Not per attempt, per completion.) He converted 1 3rd down, on the game’s opening series. His lone attempt of 20+ air yards fell incomplete. Alabama kept dropping 8 men into coverage, making little effort to bring pressure; he kept dutifully checking down. The 6 series he was in the game yielded 6 points.

Nussmeier’s final series before being sent to the bench was a microcosm of his season. Trailing 17-3 at halftime, LSU opened the 2nd half with its best drive of the night, moving the ball inside the Bama 10-yard line with the help of a facemask penalty against the Tide. It unraveled quickly. Facing 3rd-and-goal at the 8-yard line, the Tigers were flagged for delay of game. Before they could regroup, they were forced to call a timeout to avoid a second delay of game. Now facing 3rd-and-goal from the 13, with Alabama rushing just 3 and plenty of space to maneuver in the pocket, Nussmeier panicked, spun obliviously into a sack, and completed the sequence of purely self-inflicted errors that turned 1st-and-goal into a 44-yard field-goal attempt.

If that wasn’t literally the end of Nussmeier’s tenure, it certainly felt like it in spirit: The final rung on his career arc from gunslinging underclassman to tentative Heisman candidate to struggling scapegoat whose confidence is so shot he’s barely capable of throwing beyond the sticks. After getting visibly chewed out by interim head coach Frank Wilson, he spent the rest of the night on the bench, watching understudy Michael Van Buren Jr. operate the offense in fits and starts over the last quarter-and-a-half to little avail.

Wilson indicated on Monday that Nussmeier will be back in the saddle for this weekend’s trip to Arkansas, but that both quarterbacks will play. (“I don’t think it’s a clear separation where one is behind the other,” Wilson said. “We’ll need both of them.”) Either way, frankly it seems LSU fans are beyond caring, having collectively simmed to the end of this cursed campaign weeks ago. Nussmeier got a lot of credit for sticking it out in Baton Rouge after the hasty departure of the coach who recruited him (Ed Orgeron) and 2 subsequent years biding his time behind Jayden Daniels. He entered the year poised to become the first LSU QB to throw for 3,000 yards twice in a career. But in the end, he has given the locals very little reason to remember he was ever there.

Last week: 10

12. Cutter Boley, Kentucky

Boley has presided over back-to-back conference wins, which at this point in the Rankings makes him look like a beacon of stability. That’s not saying much. Kentucky’s 10-3 win over Auburn in Week 10 was an unwatchable punt-fest that got the opposing head coach fired. Saturday’s 38-7 romp over Florida came at the expense of a listless, lame-duck outfit whose head coach had already been fired, and showed up to the stadium prepared to wave the white flag at the first opportunity. The Wildcats and Gators combined for 8 turnovers, 4 of them coming in rapid succession in a span of 7 plays at the end of the first half. At one point in the 2nd half, the Gators’ backup quarterback led a 14-play, 7-minute drive that resulted in a punt.

Still, for an team that had lost 10 straight in SEC play prior to the past 2, a win is a win, and Boley is slowly emerging as a potential long-term fixture. Kentucky needs 2cmore wins to reach bowl eligibility, 1 of which will come this weekend against Tennessee Tech; the other would have to come against either Vanderbilt or Louisville. Not that anyone in Lexington is moved by the possibility of qualifying for the Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl. But in the current market, it would serve as one less reason to pay Mark Stoops $38 million to go away. • Last week: 14

13. Blake Shapen or Kamario Taylor, Mississippi State

Shapen has had his moments this season, including successful 4th-quarter rallies in wins over Arizona State and Arkansas. But he has arguably held the Bulldogs back at the end of several other winnable games — his walk-off interception at Florida within range of a game-winning field goal attempt was particularly egregious — and in Saturday’s blowout loss to Georgia, his limitations were on full display for a national audience. In his 37th career start, Shapen did nothing to threaten UGA downfield or as a runner, and was altogether juiceless after hitting his marks on the scripted opening series. Eventually, he went down hard for the 2nd consecutive week, and this time didn’t return.

With the game out of hand in the 2nd half, State turned to Taylor, a touted local product who has looked the part at every opportunity. The previous week, he’d filled in briefly but admirably in the win at Arkansas, accounting for 2 touchdowns (1 rushing, 1 passing) while Shapen was being evaluated for a concussion. Against Georgia, Taylor supplied an immediate spark, promptly leading a 75-yard touchdown drive on his first series. He went on to account for Mississippi State’s longest run (23 yards) and pass of the afternoon, a 57-yard heave that set up another late touchdown.

Now, as a rule, most of what happens in garbage time is just that: Garbage. For what it’s worth, Jeff Lebby insisted on Monday that Shapen remains the starter — as long as he’s “truly healthy.” But you don’t have to work too hard to read between the lines: With nothing to lose over the next 2 games, the time has come to thank the battered 6th-year vet for his service and pass the baton to the future of the program.

Last week: 13⬌ | n/a

14. Ashton Daniels, Auburn

Either Daniels should have been playing all along, or Hugh Freeze should have been fired a lot sooner. Maybe both! Either way, Auburn’s first game of the post-Freeze era at Vanderbilt was its best offensive outing of the year, by far, yielding season highs for points (38), yards (563) and yards per play (6.9) vs. an SEC opponent. For his part, Daniels personally accounting for 442 of those yards and 4 of the Tigers’ 5 touchdowns — as many as the offense had scored in the previous 5 games combined. He looked like a completely different quarterback than the one who’d presided over a 10-3 loss at Kentucky in Week 10, although the result in Nashville was ultimately the same: A 7-point loss in overtime, this time courtesy of a 2nd-half collapse by the defense.

Normally, it would safe to assume at this point that Auburn fans have seen the last of Jackson Arnold, a 7-figure bust who ends his tenure as QB1 on pace to finish dead last among SEC starters in both Total QBR and pass efficiency for the 2nd year in a row at 2 different schools. A much less lucrative foray in the portal awaits. First, though, coaches have an extra week to decide how they want to handle the rotation in the next game, a Week 13 date against Mercer. Daniels, a senior who has appeared in 3 games in as many weeks, is in a unique situation: A redshirt is still on the table, but only if he skips 1 of the Tigers’ last 2 games to stay under the 4-game threshold. If he sat out against Mercer, he could return to the lineup for the Iron Bowl while still preserving a final year of eligibility (not to mention the pay day that comes with it) in 2026. Freeze was up front about his preference to redshirt Daniels before he was fired, and interim coach DJ Durkin indicated on Monday that there are “ongoing decisions and discussions” about doing just that.

If the Tigers do opt to go to the bullpen, the first option may not be Arnold, but 5-start freshman Deuce Knight, whose redshirt is officially safe with only 1 appearance to date. A stakes-free outing against an FCS tomato can is the perfect opportunity for Knight to get his feet wet and make a good first impression for the incoming coaching staff. If he really is the future, they’ve literally run out of reasons to keep him waiting.

Last week: 15

15. DJ Lagway, Florida

Is Lagway finished as a Gator? It’s hard to imagine a less inspired performance than Saturday’s surrender at Kentucky, a debacle in which he was picked off 3 times in the first half and benched in the second. Or at least, it should be hard, if not for the fact that full-blown meltdowns have been a running theme throughout the season. After serving up 5 interceptions at LSU and being subjected to a public mugging at Miami in consecutive weeks in September, he was already well acquainted with rock bottom. Really, the only way it could have been worse this time is if they’d left him in the game.

Three interceptions against the Wildcats brought Lagway’s season total an even dozen, the most of any FBS passer this season. His 4.5% INT rate is the highest for a qualifying SEC passer since another underachieving Gator QB, Jeff Driskel, finished at 4.7% in an injury-shortened campaign in 2014.

Interim head coach Billy Gonzales told reporters on Monday that he expects Lagway to start this weekend at Ole Miss, comparing his latest flop to a slumping MLB pitcher. If only he had 100 games ahead of him to slowly but surely climb out of the hole. Alas, he has just 3, none of them friendly to a struggling young quarterback. In fact, for a losing team that appears to have given up on the season, the home crowd at The Swamp might be more hostile to their own side when Tennessee and Florida State come to town in Weeks 13-14 than the Gators are likely to encounter in Oxford.

The inevitable transfer rumors that have followed his decline are a bitter pill for a player with Lagway’s obvious gifts, which were on full display in 2024 as he helped steer the Gators out of a skid in November. His regression in Year 2 has been palpable enough that pulling off another late-season u-turn seems out of the question. (It doesn’t help that his 2 best receivers are on the shelf due to injuries.) At best, he has one last ambush in him before the next administration arrives in a few weeks with its own plans. The odds that Lagway is part of them are looking slimmer by the week.

Last week: 12

16. Matt Zollers, Missouri

Zollers should be redshirting, not being thrown in the deep end against the No. 3 team in the country. He was every bit the bug-eyed freshman in Mizzou’s loss to Texas A&M, finishing a dismal 7-for-22 passing for 77 yards and fumbling twice on strip sacks. He did connect on a couple of downfield attempts to fellow freshman/emerging dude Donovan Olugbode, who accounted for 74 of those 77 yards; when targeting anyone else, Zollers was 0-for-8 on attempts beyond the line of scrimmage. The silver lining: At least with the Playoff definitively off the table, there’s no urgency to rush Beau Pribula back from his injured ankle.

Last week: 16⬌

The post SEC QB Rankings, Week 12: Garrett Nussmeier endured it all at LSU but leaves nothing behind appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Diego for Heisman (for real)

It’s about that time of year for the making and breaking of Heisman campaigns to commence in earnest, and one by one, the barriers to a legitimate, non-ironic run by Diego Pavia continue to fall. The few that remain are looking flimsier by the week.

Let’s make the case. Why not? What doubts can you still express about Pavia at this point that didn’t also apply to another quarterback who won or came close in the past, say, 15 years? What, he’s too short? Bryce Young, hello. He’s not a first-round prospect or a fixture in mock drafts? Neither were finalists Collin Klein (2012) and Max Duggan (2022), among others. His humble origins in the hinterlands? See also: Baker Mayfield, originally a walk-on; Stetson Bennett IV, a walk-on who also did a stint in the JUCO ranks; or 2024 finalist Cam Ward, who began his journeyman college career at an FCS school. He’s too old? Chris Weinke was 28 when he won the Heisman! At 24, Pavia is a year younger than Bennett when he made the trip to NYC in 2022, and only a few months older than Dillon Gabriel last year, when he (like Pavia) was also a 6th-year senior on his 3rd school. (Gabriel is another example of a sub-six-footer who was largely ignored by the scouts, as well.) He looks the part, in the sense that there’s not really any hard-and-fast rule for what a Heisman contender looks like.

He can certainly hold his own in the box score. Up until a couple weeks ago, I would have said pump the brakes over Pavia’s good-not-great stat profile, which was more of a study in efficiency than a showstopper at first glance. After a couple of prolific, career-best outings the past 2 weeks in comeback mode against 2 of the SEC’s best defenses, Texas and Auburn, maybe it’s time to stop the show, after all. On paper, Saturday’s back-and-forth, overtime win over Auburn was arguably Pavia’s best game yet, and his team needed it to be. After nearly erasing a 24-point hole against the Longhorns in Week 10, he rallied Vanderbilt from an early 2-touchdown deficit against the Tigers and kept trading blows until the Commodores were the last team standing. Pavia set career-highs for passing yards (377), rushing yards (112), and EPA (15.4); turned in his best ever passer rating (201.7) against an SEC opponent; and finished with his best rating in terms of Total QBR (95.7) since posting a 96.0 rating last year’s monumental upset over Alabama.

There was a general consensus at the time, which probably carried over well into this season, that that game represented Pavia’s “15 minutes of fame,” the peak of his career as an eccentric, charismatic overachiever who’d just maxed out his potential on the right Saturday. It has turned out to be more like a warning shot from a guy who was only just getting started.

Down the stretch, he’s ascending the FBS leaderboards: 6th nationally in Total QBR, 5th in EPA, 4th in passer rating, and 3rd in passing success rate, 2nd in overall PFF grade, tied for 2nd in total touchdowns, and No. 1 in total yards. Anybody else, and you’re wondering why he doesn’t have the best Heisman odds.

But then, impressive as the numbers are, they miss the point of what really makes Pavia a compelling candidate just as surely as fixating on how he projects to the next level. In his case, the stats are there mainly to demonstrate that he ticks the right boxes on his résumé, his reference check out. The actual case, the one that will get him over to New York if he does in fact get there, is much more to the point: Here’s the guy — the only guy, like, ever — who singlehandedly made Vanderbilt matter.

Singlehandedly might be an exaggeration, but no by much. A year ago, eking out bowl eligibility in Pavia’s first season on campus felt like a minor miracle that could not have happened without the Bama stunner. Two years ago, Clark Lea was hanging on to his job by the skin of his teeth with a 2-22 record in SEC play over his first 3 seasons. Now, the ‘Dores really do matter: With Saturday’s escape over the Tigers, they’re 8-2, matching its most regular-season wins since World War I. One more SEC win will match Vandy’s most ever in a season with 5, achieved just once in the modern era under then-coach James Franklin in 2012. (Prior to that, the last team that pulled it off was in 1935.) Two more, over Kentucky and Tennessee on the other side of an open date in Week 12, and they’ll almost certainly punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff, completing one of the most dramatic doormat-to-destiny cycles on record. And no one in the sport has any doubt who is responsible for making that a reality.

If Pavia tends to be compared to any previous Heisman winner, of course, it’s his spirit guide, Johny Manziel, whom he emulates to whatever extent his not-quite-Manzielian athleticism allows. Pavia is less improvisational, by necessity, but you can see flashes of the same spark on occasion. In terms of what he means to his team and program, though, the more apt comparison might be to the guy who it the year before Manziel: Robert Griffin III. When RG3 arrived at Baylor in 2008, the Bears were the Vandy of the Big 12, a private school reduced to perennial laughingstock in the standings and in their national reputation, to the extent they had one. Three years later, they were in a bowl game for the first time in more than a decade; a year after that, Griffin won the Heisman in what was then only the 2nd 10-win season in school history. From there, it was on to national relevance and major bowl games, and they have never returned to the basement.

Pavia’s game might not resemble Griffin’s, but his value proposition to his team clearly does. His place on ballots and in history is still up for debate until we see how the story ends over the last 2 games, and possibly beyond. For Pavia, seriously contending for the Heisman and finishing off Vandy’s unlikely run with a pair of CFP-clinching wins might be one and the same; achieving one requires achieving the other. That’s true to some extent for every face-of-the-program quarterback. But few faces have become so inseparable from the program, so quickly. So goes Diego, so go the ‘Dores. If he’s going all the way, he’s going to have to take them all along for the ride.

Dude of the Week: Auburn WR Cam Coleman

For the record, Coleman turned in his best stat line as a Tiger against Vanderbilt, finishing with career-highs for receptions (10) and receiving yards (143) in (fittingly) a losing effort. In the grand scheme of things, the numbers are footnotes. The score is a footnote. The only thing anyone is going to remember about Saturday — or, frankly, the rest of Coleman’s frustrating Auburn career — is how they felt watching one of the truly unique talents of his era defying gravity right before their eyes.

Coleman has made so many impossible plays this year, you can hardly blame QB Ashton Daniels for being determined to throw in his direction on the decisive 2-point conversion in overtime despite 2 Vandy defenders explicitly assigned to Coleman Patrol in coverage. Daniels’ only regret was sailing the ball too high to give his man a chance.

Just give him a chance, the resigned slogan of Coleman’s sophomore campaign. Plenty of great college wideouts have been cursed with mediocre quarterbacks. (Calvin Johnson, hello.) These days, though, being universally acclaimed as America’s Best Player On a Bad Team as an underclassman is a blessing and a curse: One way or another, Coleman is set to make bank in 2026 on a team that, ideally, does not need him to make multiple epic video-game-glitch catches on a weekly basis just to keep it close. Whether Auburn still has a chance to be that team is TBD. But if the next head coach isn’t willing to do whatever it takes to keep him in the fold — up to and including soliciting Coleman’s input/approval in pursuit of a new starting QB — he’ll be well within his rights to find one who is.

Dud of the Week: LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier

I’m groping for the right word for Nussmeier’s performance against Alabama, and keep coming back to “inert” — dormant; not being in a state of use, activity, or employment.

I mean, he was out there. He was busily engaged in quarterback stuff, or appeared to be. On paper, he actually finished 18-for-21 passing, good for the best completion percentage of the season (85.7%) vs. an SEC defense. If you didn’t see it, that probably sounds impressive. If you did, you know it was anything but. It was more like watching a glitchy simulation unfold on an old video game that keeps dialing up the same busted screen play no matter how many times it gets snuffed out.

Of those 18 completions, 11 came on attempts behind the line of the scrimmage, per PFF, all but 1 of them screens. Nussmeier’s average depth of target on all attempts was a grim 2.9 yards, well below his already conservative ADOT of 7.3 yards for the season. He managed just 6.7 yards per completion. (Not per attempt, per completion.) He converted 1 3rd down, on the game’s opening series. His lone attempt of 20+ air yards fell incomplete. Alabama kept dropping 8 men into coverage, making little effort to bring pressure; he kept dutifully checking down. The 6 series he was in the game yielded 6 points.

Nussmeier’s final series of the night before being sent to the bench was a microcosm of his season. Trailing 17-3 at halftime, LSU opened the second half with its best drive of the night, moving the ball inside the Bama 10-yard line with the help of a facemask penalty against the Tide. It unraveled quickly. Facing 3rd-and-goal at the 8-yard line, the Tigers were flagged for delay of game. Before they could regroup, they were forced to call a timeout to avoid a second delay of game. Now facing 3rd-and-goal from the 13, with Alabama rushing just 3 and plenty of space to maneuver in the pocket, Nussmeier panicked, spun obliviously into a sack, and completed the sequence of purely self-inflicted errors that turned 1st-and-goal into a 44-yard field-goal attempt.

If that wasn’t literally the end of Nussmeier’s tenure in Baton Rouge, it certainly felt like it in spirit: The final rung on his career arc from gunslinging underclassman to tentative Heisman candidate to struggling scapegoat whose confidence is so shot he’s barely capable of throwing beyond the sticks. After getting visibly chewed out by interim head coach Frank Wilson, he spent the rest of the night on the bench, watching understudy Michael Van Buren Jr. operate the offense in fits and starts over the last quarter-and-a-half to little avail. Wilson gave no indication after the game who he plans to start for this weekend’s trip to Arkansas; regardless, LSU fans are mostly beyond caring, having collectively simmed to the end of the year, the arrival of a new head coach, the pursuit of a big-ticket transfer to fill the looming void behind center, and the merciful end of this cursed, dysfunctional campaign.

If he’s up for playing out the string, at least there won’t be any illusions that there’s any more to it than that. If not, then the question becomes how quickly the locals forget he was ever there.

CFP Realpolitik

It’s that time of year, when the fog begins to lift and the outlines of the postseason picture begin to come into view. Each week down the home stretch, CFP Realpolitik will size up the pecking order from a strictly practical perspective.

We were due for a dose of chaos, and very nearly got it Saturday in the Big Ten, where Oregon and Indiana narrowly escaped upset bids by Iowa and the zombie corpse of Penn State, respectively. The Ducks and Hoosiers both gave up go-ahead touchdowns late in the 4th quarter, and were both forced to execute do-or-die drives with their seasons on the line in hostile conditions. They both delivered, thereby preserving the status quo for yet another week. Eight teams now boast at least an 80% chance to make the 12-team CFP field, per ESPN’s Football Power Index: Indiana, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, Ole Miss, and Texas Tech. (Welcome to the Green Zone, Red Raiders.) Of course, we track the Playoff odds, too.

Barring an insane turn of events, the Hoosiers, Buckeyes and Aggies are mortal locks, and Alabama and Georgia can all but reserve their tickets this weekend with home wins over Texas and Oklahoma.

The rest of the field? Choose your own adventure. After the top 8, no other team clears 50%, including the best bet among the remaining at-large candidates, Notre Dame.

Notre Dame is not inevitable. First of all, the Irish have a non-trivial road test this weekend at Pittsburgh, which has won 5 in a row since promoting true freshman Mason Heintschel to starting quarterback. But for the sake of argument, let’s go ahead and project a 10-2 finish. That will probably get them in. To assure it, though, they still need some help — specifically in the SEC, where Texas, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt can all still finish 10-2 as well, and with better hypothetical résumés than Notre Dame’s if they do. Given the remaining hurdles for all 3 of those teams, however, that is not exactly a likely scenario. (The Longhorns and Sooners are both clear road underdogs this weekend in Athens and Tuscaloosa; Texas, of course, also closes with Texas A&M in Austin. Meanwhile, Vandy will be an underdog at Tennessee.) But it is certainly within the realm of possibility.

If it’s Texas or Oklahoma in that equation, they will jump the Irish in line, no questions asked. In the significantly more likely case that it’s the Commodores, brace yourself for a forensic accounting of their strength of schedule vs. Notre Dame’s at every available opportunity in the week leading up to selection Sunday. No algorithm can predict how the committee would decide that debate, and I’d advise being wary of anyone who sounds too certain about the politics at play, too — in either direction.

Is the Big 12 a 2-bid league? The other question mark to consider re: Notre Dame is how the committee would weigh the 10-2 Irish against an 11-2 BYU or Texas Tech outfit coming off a competitive loss in the Big 12 Championship Game. (Recall SMU last year, which was not punished for its last-second loss in the ACC Championship Game.) Obviously, after Saturday’s 29-7 beatdown of BYU in Lubbock, the Red Raiders look like the class of the conference and clear-cut favorites to secure the league’s auto bid; at this point, a loss in either of their last 2 games against UCF or West Virginia or in the title game would be a significant upset. The Cougars, on the other hand, still have a couple of hurdles to clear against TCU and Cincinnati just to force a rematch. If either or both teams make it to Arlington at 11-1, though, and puts up a respectable fight in a losing effort while the Fighting Irish are watching from home, they will not go quietly.

Is Oregon on the bubble? The Ducks control their Playoff fate, assuming they win out to finish 11-1. No doubt about that. Relative to the other teams in the Green Zone, though, their margin for error is slim. Their biggest win to date, an overtime decision at Penn State in Week 5, has plummeted in value since the Nittany Lions fired their head coach in the middle of what is now a [checks notes] 6-game losing streak in conference play, wow. Their only outing against a current CFP contender, a 30-20 loss to Indiana in Eugene, effectively eliminated them from returning to the Big Ten Championship Game. Saturday’s water-logged escape at Iowa put a lot folks who were taking the Ducks for granted on alert. (They dropped a spot in the AP poll, falling behind Ole Miss following the Rebels’ dramatic 49-0 win over, uh, The Citadel.) None of their remaining dates against Minnesota, USC and Washington are slam dunks, but — like Iowa — don’t necessarily move the needle as notable wins, either. Of all the teams sitting on the right side of the divide right now, Oregon may be the one that can least afford to slip up.

The ACC: Don’t ask. Last week I put the de facto ACC frontrunner, Virginia, on fraud alert. The Cavaliers responded by losing at home to Wake Forest, 16-9, in a game featuring zero offensive touchdowns. (The decisive margin for the Demon Deacons came on a punt return.) But if you thought that was the last you’d heard of them, think again.

Look, somebody has to win this league. The best bet, right now, is 8-1 Georgia Tech; the Jackets are both the highest-ranked ACC team and the only team in the 5-way logjam at the top of the conference standings that actually controls its fate. But you could make a case for any of the other 4 — even Duke, which just fell to 1-3 in nonconference play in a 37-34 loss at UConn but still has a viable ACC Championship Game path. And you can’t completely rule out Louisville or Miami with 2 losses, either.

With the Cardinals’ loss to Cal, though, you almost certainly can rule out the possibility of any ACC team earning an at-large bid. Miami would love to run the table and put that statement to the test, especially given its head-to-head win over Notre Dame in the season-opener; if both teams finish 10-2, you can see the ‘Canes’ argument coming a mile away. But then, given the conspicuous gap between No. 10 Notre Dame and No. 18 Miami in the committee’s initial rankings, they’ve already anticipated that argument and signaled that they don’t find it particularly persuasive. The only other at-large possibility would be a very specific scenario in which Georgia Tech beats Pitt and Georgia to close the regular season, then loses the ACC title game to finish 11-2. Let’s hold off crossing that bridge until we come to it.

Notebook

1.) Marcel Reed continues to thrive on the road. Most young quarterbacks are just trying to survive in hostile territory, but Reed has been at his best: Texas A&M’s 4 road trips this season at Notre Dame, Arkansas, LSU and Missouri are his highest-rated games according to Total QBR, yielding at least 250 total yards and multiple touchdown passes in all 4. His rating in Saturday’s 38-17 win at Mizzou was a stellar 90.1 — the best by an opposing quarterback against the Tigers since the guy Reed replaced as QB1, Conner Weigman, posted a 94.1 in an even more lopsided win last year in College Station.

2.) You will never see a team more unprepared for a fake punt than Missouri, which was caught with its shoelaces tied together on A&M’s direct snap to upback Dalton Brooks in the 3rd quarter. At that point, the pendulum was beginning to tentatively swing in the Tigers’ direction following their first scoring drive of the game and an ensuing stop by the defense that figured to give the ball back to the offense with a chance to cut further into a 21-7 deficit. Instead, Brooks was off like a dog who’s just stolen a steak off the patio table before Mizzou had even begun to give chase.

When it’s that wide open, does it even qualify as a gamble? The man had so much open field he could have planted crops, harvested them, and turned the operation over to corporate management before encountering a Missouri player. By the time he reached the line of scrimmage, there wasn’t a Tiger within a 10-yard radius. By the time he crossed the 50, he was the only player on the dang screen:

From there, the shocking part was that he somehow failed to score. The only remaining line of defense, punt returner Kevin Coleman Jr., didn’t appear until the camera panned to the Mizzou 30-yard line, where he finally managed to cut Brooks off more than 40 yards downfield from where he’d initially taken the snap; acing his geometry, Coleman managed to alter Brooks’ route long enough to pursue him into the waiting arms of a teammate inside the 20-yard line, “limiting” him to a 48-yard gain.

In fact, the Aggies were so stunned by their own success that the offense promptly earned a penalty for delay of game, knocking the ensuing series off-schedule before it had begun. They settled for a field goal, but still extended the margin to 3 scores, 24-7, effectively putting a game that Missouri was threatening to make an interesting on ice.

3.) Georgia played a vintage Georgia game, arguably for the first time all season against a real opponent. (Yes, Mississippi State counts, at least in Starkville; ask Tennessee and Texas, or the oddsmakers who set the points spread at a respectable 8.5 points.) I’ve been harping for weeks on how uninspired the Dawgs have looked even in victory, particularly their tendency to get off to a lethargic start. So credit where it’s due: Saturday’s 41-21 romp over State was exactly the kind of routine beatdown of an unranked underdog that they’d like to be able to get back to taking for granted. Yes, once again, the defense spotted the opposing offense a touchdown to open the game, a pattern I’m beginning to think of as akin to a batter in baseball habitually taking the first strike. After that, Georgia proceeded to score 38 straight points in a game that, for once, was not nearly as close as the final score. UGA outgained Mississippi State by 245 yards (including garbage time); spread touches among a dozen different players on offense; and leaned on a finally healthy o-line to open up the kind of gaping running lanes for sophomore RB “Shoeless” Nate Frazier that Bulldogs’ running backs have not enjoyed in a while.

Per PFF, 108 of Frazier’s 181 rushing yards for the game came before contact, an average of 9.0 yards per carry. As a team, 303 rushing yards represented Georgia’s biggest number on the ground vs. an SEC opponent since a 316-yard outing at Missouri in December 2020.

4.) The silver lining for Mississippi State was the emergence of freshman QB Kamario Taylor, who scored all 3 of the Bulldogs’ touchdowns as a rusher and generally looked ready to take the reins from 6th-year vet Blake Shapen. The gem of Jeff Lebby‘s first full recruiting class, the 6-4, 230-pound Taylor is huge, mobile, and plainly the future for a program that has not had much to look forward to the past few years. Prior to Saturday, he’d been primarily limited to a short-yardage role. He saw his first extended action in Week 10, accounting for 2 touchdowns in against Arkansas while Shapen was being checked for a concussion; if you’d polled Bulldogs fans at the end of the 3rd quarter of that game, I guarantee the response would have been overwhelmingly “leave the kid in.” Lebby thought otherwise, reinserting Shapen instead to finish off a come-from-behind, 38-35 win that snapped the Dogs’ 16-game conference losing streak.

Against an actual defense on Saturday, Shapen’s ceiling was all too obvious. In his 37th career start, he did nothing to threaten Georgia downfield or as a runner, and was altogether juiceless after hitting his marks on the scripted opening series. He went down hard in the 3rd quarter and this time didn’t return. With the game out of hand, Taylor came on to cheers from the home crowd, promptly led a 75-yard touchdown drive, and went on to account for Mississippi State’s longest run (23 yards) and pass of the afternoon, a 57-yard heave to Brenen Thompson that set up another late touchdown. Now, as a rule, most of what happens in garbage time is just that: Garbage. But when both your banged-up, 24-year-old journeyman and your prized recruit show you who they are on the same afternoon against one of the league’s standard bearers, maybe it’s time to take the hint.

And if all you’re concerned about is who gives you the best chance to win the Egg Bowl, well, somebody ask Lane Kiffin which guy worries him more. I bet he’ll tell the truth.

5.) LSU’s self-inflicted wounds on offense didn’t end with Garrett Nussmeier’s exit. On his first series in relief, backup Michael Van Buren Jr. scrambled for an apparent drive-extending first down on 3rd-and-10, only to have the spot overturned on review due to Van Buren dropping his hips to begin his slide a half-yard short of the line to gain. Trailing 17-6, the Tigers lined up to go for it on 4th-and-inches near midfield … and promptly committed a false start, setting the offense back five yards and forcing a punt instead.

Even LSU’s idiots on the field were in no mood to put up a fight.

6.) A bad call went Auburn’s way! It didn’t matter in the end, but after spending the past 6 weeks complaining about the refs, the Tigers finally benefited from an officiating gaffe on Ashton Daniels’ 16-yard touchdown run at the end of the 3rd quarter, when the side judge ignored a blatant hold — a straight-up tackle, in fact — on the perimeter by Preston Howard (No. 15 below) that allowed Daniels to turn the corner.

Besides negating the touchdown, a penalty would have forced the Tigers into 3rd-and-long, likely forcing them to settle for a field goal.

Notably, Howard was also responsible for another long Daniels TD run in the first half being wiped out due to a holding penalty that was actually flagged. The first one was a little iffy, in my opinion, so maybe the 2nd one merely balanced the scales. Either way, as far as Auburn fans are concerned the zebras are going to be paying down their debt from the Oklahoma and Georgia games for years to come.

Moment of Zen of the Week

The post Monday Down South: Diego Pavia is making his Heisman case. Can he bring Vandy along for the ride? appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Game of the Week: Texas A&M (-6.5) at Missouri

It’s November. Texas A&M is one of the hottest teams in America. The weather has not quite turned in Texas, but for Aggie fans there is a chill in the air.

Historically, this has been the cruelest point on the calendar for A&M, especially when the team is good — or thinks it is. In 13 years in the SEC, the Aggies are a sobering 15-23 in November conference games, with losing records under all 3 head coaches in that span. As a ranked team, the track record is even worse: 7-13 in November conference games, with 6 of those 7 wins coming either with Johnny Manziel as the starting quarterback (2012-13) or amid the weekly chaos of the 2020 pandemic season. Aside from a 7-overtime thriller against LSU in 2018 (an all-time classic of a game in which there was nothing in particular at stake), almost nothing that has happened after setting the clocks back has been worth remembering.

No team has reinforced the trend more dramatically than the 2024 edition, which was in a similar position on Nov. 1 as the ’25 team finds itself a year later. At that point, A&M had just cracked the AP top 10 on the strength of a 7-game winning streak, including an emphatic, 38-23 beatdown of LSU on the last Saturday of October. From that point on, they dropped all 3 of their November SEC dates against South Carolina, Auburn and Texas, and went on to lose to USC in the Las Vegas Bowl, for good measure. The most promising season in nearly a decade ended indistinguishably from the kind of bog-standard 8-win campaign the Aggies have spent umpteen millions to put behind them.

All of which is to say, if there’s any team or fan base that does not need to be reminded just how dangerous it is to take anything for granted this time of year, it’s Texas A&M.

But this year is not last year, and there are plenty of reasons to believe the current edition is operating well beyond the gravitational pull of any lingering curse. The Aggies are 1 of only 4 remaining unbeaten teams in the country, off to the best start in College Station since 1992. They debuted at No. 3 in the CFP committee’s first weekly rankings, A&M’s highest position ever. They own the widest point differential in SEC play (+72) by a mile. Their 2 best wins to date, a 41-40 comeback at Notre Dame in Week 3 and a 49-25 humiliation of LSU in Week 9, have both come on the road. Quarterback Marcel Reed, a wild card during last year’s slide, now qualifies as a steady vet with 16 career starts. (Not for nothing, he’s also the first opening-day starter at A&M to make it this far into the season without being injured or benched since Kellen Mond in 2020.) The starting o-line boasts at least 4 future pros and a combined 155 career starts. The defense has allowed a grand total of 8 3rd-down conversions in 5 conference games. They’re healthy, balanced and on a roll.

Are they championship material, at last? That’s what we’re about to find out. As much as A&M has looked the part so far, road trips to Missouri and Texas — both aspiring CFP contenders, however distant their chances with 2 losses apiece — are hardly speed bumps in the home stretch. If this has the makings of the best team to come through College Station in a while, well, the locals have heard that one before. Since 2010, the A&M has risen into the top 10 10 times and finished unranked in 7 of them. These Aggies can’t really claim anything until they go where their underachieving predecessors haven’t been.

When Mizzou has the ball: Can the Tigers protect Matt Zollers?

Ideally, Zollers would be on the redshirt track. Instead, he’s going straight into the deep end following an ankle injury to starting QB Beau Pribula in the Tigers’ 17-10 loss at Vanderbilt in Week 9. (Eli Drinkwitz indicated this week that he’s cautiously optimistic about Pribula’s recovery despite initial fears the injury was season-ending. If he does play again in 2025, though, it won’t be on Saturday.) Mizzou’s original QB2, redshirt junior Sam Horn, was already on the shelf after fracturing his leg in the opener.

That left Zollers, a 4-star freshman who had yet to take a meaningful snap before coming on in the 3rd quarter against Vandy. He finished a respectable 14-for-24 passing for 138 yards with 1 touchdown against the ‘Dores, and nearly pulled off the comeback on a Hail Mary that came up a half-yard short of the end zone as time expired. His lone turnover, a fumble caused by a blitzing Vandy defender who arrived in the backfield so quickly he literally took the handoff from Zollers on a botched zone read, was a costly one, setting up the go-ahead (ultimately winning) touchdown; it also wasn’t really the young quarterback’s fault.

At any rate, Missouri obviously does not want to put its fledgling QB in the crosshairs of a ferocious Texas A&M pass rush any more than it absolutely has to. That should mean an extra-large serving of the SEC’s leading rusher, Ahmad Hardy, who has logged 20+ carries in 6 of 7 games vs. FBS opponents. Hardy needs 63 yards to become Mizzou’s latest 1,000-yard rusher. Between Hardy and Jamal Roberts, the Tigers have the horses for a 4-quarter grind, or for as long as the down-and-distance and the scoreboard are in their favor. The question mark is whether the lanky Zollers has enough mobility to contribute on the ground himself. If not, Pribula’s legs may be missed as much as his arm.

When A&M has the ball: Can Missouri heat up Marcel Reed?

Reed is not untouchable, but he has been arguably the best-protected quarterback in the SEC, facing pressure on just 24.8% of his total drop-backs for the season, per Pro Football Focus; that includes a league-low 5 sacks, 3 of them coming in the Aggies’ Week 5 win over Auburn. His starting left tackle, 5th-year senior Trey Zuhn III, boasts the best PFF pass-blocking grade in the nation (94.3).

On the other hand, Missouri’s pass rush has been a strength. Georgia transfer Damon Wilson II, a former 5-star, has been significantly more productive off the edge than any of his former teammates in Athens; he and fellow bookend Zion Young have combined for more QB pressures (63) than any other pass-rushing combo in the SEC, including 10 sacks. They memorably harassed Alabama’s Heisman favorite Ty Simpson in Week 7, a performance that led to Bama right tackle Wilkin Formby getting (briefly) benched as a result.

Of course, getting a shot at Reed is one thing; actually finishing him off is another, as LSU learned the hard way.

X-factor: Texas A&M WR Mario Craver

Craver, a sophomore transfer from Mississippi State, was big-play machine in the nonconference schedule, accounting for 443 yards and 4 touchdowns in the Aggies’ first 3 games. His electric, 207-yard performance at Notre Dame set off the breakout siren, and remains the only 200-yard receiving game by an SEC player this season.

It’s been a little quiet since. Not that Craver is a forgotten man, by any means: He has 20 receptions in SEC play on 28 targets, including gains of 42 yards against Mississippi State and 67 yards against Florida. Still, after setting an All-America pace in September his production has been more in line with what you’d expect from “the other guy” opposite NC State transfer KC Concepcion. He hasn’t scored since the Notre Dame game, and has just 1 reception on attempts of 20+ air yards (the big gain against the Gators); his average depth of target over the past 2 games is less than 5 yards. For a diminutive slot type who does most of his damage after the catch, “depth of target” is not the most relevant stat. But as the Aggies begin to think bigger than one week to the next, the version of the offense that makes them a real threat in the postseason is the one that features Craver going off.

The verdict …

Beau Pribula’s absence tips Mizzou’s chances from intriguing upset bid to long shot. A&M is not dominant in any single facet, but it is solid across the board and more than capable of adjusting to any type of game it finds itself in. This week, that’s likely to be a slugfest as the Tigers emphasize controlling the clock and keeping their freshman quarterback out of must-pass situations for as long as possible. Fine with the Aggies. They’re not going to get pushed around on defense, and they’ve yet to be made one-dimensional on offense. They might run a punt back, given half a chance. And if they do manage to force Zollers to stand and deliver from the pocket, it could get ugly fast.

Prediction: • Texas A&M 26 | Missouri 16

LSU at Alabama (-10.0)

The good news for LSU: Jalen Milroe is in the NFL. Milroe dominated both the 2023 and ’24 entries in the rivalry, running wild in 2 of the most memorable performances of his career. He accounted for 8 rushing touchdowns across both games, in which Bama outscored LSU by a combined 84-41 and slammed the door on the Tigers’ Playoff chances both seasons.

The bad news for LSU: Literally everything else happening right now. Losers in 3 of their past 4, the Tigers are finished as CFP contenders, just fired head coach Brian Kelly, and spent their week off descending into a cajun-fried reality-TV soap opera from the governor on down. Between a newly installed university president, a hastily promoted athletic director whose job title changed multiple times in 48 hours, and partisan politics spilling into full public view, the chaos in Baton Rouge is inescapable. There’s no clear chain of command when it comes to hiring the next coach, and, at this point, even less apparent interest in anything that happens on the field between now and then. The team still has a season to finish; the rest of the state seems pretty much over it.

The state of the locker room under interim head coach Frank Wilson is anyone’s guess, but those are hardly the vibes you want to carry into Tuscaloosa, where Alabama has been its usual domineering self. On the road, the Tide have merely survived; including the 31-17 debacle at Florida State in the opener, they’ve actually been outscored on the road for the season, 98-97. At home, on the other hand, they’ve won with plenty of room to spare, putting away Wisconsin, Vanderbilt and Tennessee by 16+ points apiece. As far as LSU is concerned, playing anywhere other than Tiger Stadium after the toxic ending to their wipeout Week 9 loss at the hands of Texas A&M might qualify as a blessing in disguise. But there is no venue in America right now where the stench of dysfunction would not follow them in. The Tide roll to their 3rd consecutive win in the series.

Prediction: • Alabama 35 | LSU 17

Georgia (-8.5) at Mississippi State

Eight games in, Georgia’s pass rush remains shockingly MIA. The Bulldogs rank dead last in the SEC and 132nd nationally (!) in sacks, averaging a single sack per game. (The previous low in Kirby Smart‘s tenure: 1.71 sacks per game in 2018.) And what little pressure they have managed to generate, they’ve had to get creative to do it: All but 1 of those 7 sacks have been credited to inside linebackers CJ Allen, Chris Cole and Raylen Wilson, all of whom spend more time in coverage than rushing the passer. As for the full-time edge rushers, as a rotation they’ve somehow yet to record a single sack; the most disruptive of the bunch, junior Gabe Harris Jr., has just 10 QB pressures, per PFF, which is tied for 58th in the conference. You have to click on “next page” in the database before you find his name.

Mississippi State QB Blake Shapen is one of the league’s more gettable quarterbacks, having gone down 26 times in six games vs. Power 4 opponents. Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith aren’t walking through that door, but come on, somebody on that front has got to have some juice.

Prediction: • Georgia 34 | Mississippi State 22

Auburn at Vanderbilt (-6.5)

Vanderbilt’s offense is plodding by design, averaging just 58.2 plays per game in SEC play; what they lack in volume, the Commodores make up for in efficiency. But a little urgency suited Diego Pavia just fine in last week’s 34-31 loss at Texas, which was 34-10 at the end of the 3rd quarter. Back against the wall, Pavia led 3 4th-quarter touchdown drives in comeback mode — one of which consisted of a single play vs. busted coverage — finishing with career highs for drop-backs (49), attempts (38), completions (27) and passing yards (365) while salvaging just enough respectability in defeat to keep the ‘Dores from being laughed out of the Playoff race. If they’d managed to pounce on a fateful onside kick before the ball skittered out of bounds, there was very little doubt by that point that Pavia would have put the kicker in position to send the game to overtime and kept on going from there.

Maybe they should open the throttle a little bit before falling behind by 24 points? Just a thought – a thought for another week, frankly, because Auburn’s offense is not going to put them in any position to push any harder than they want to.

Prediction: Vanderbilt 24 | • Auburn 19

Florida (-3.5) at Kentucky

Ugly as it was, Kentucky’s upset win at Auburn salvaged at least a faint glimmer of hope for Mark Stoops‘ future – not necessarily a welcome development across a fan base beyond ready to turn the page. The Wildcats are still stagnant on offense, still 2-12 in SEC play over the past 2 years, and still riding a 10-game conference losing streak in Lexington. (Their last SEC win at home: A 33-14 romp over Florida in September 2023.) On the other hand, buying out Stoops’ contract this year would still cost $38 million, which might be affordable only if boosters are willing to deep.

Whether the locals like it or not, a narrow path to bowl eligibility for the 3-5 ‘Cats remains open. Step one: Slug out another low-scoring win over the lame-duck, injury-plagued Gators on Saturday. Good news: Stoops has had plenty of success against Florida. Step two: Even the record next week against Tennessee Tech. Step three: Spring an ambush on the road against either Vanderbilt or (even better) Louisville to finish at the Mendoza line. Not that anyone who was getting bored with Kentucky eking out bowl eligibility 2 years ago is going to feel any differently about this nondescript team punching a ticket to the Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl. But if it feels enough like “progress” to give the people with the checkbooks the option of investing a fraction of Stoops’ buyout in the transfer portal instead, they just might take it.

Prediction: • Kentucky 20 | Florida 17

The Citadel at Ole Miss (n/a)

A strictly “get out with all ligaments intact” outing for the Rebels, who should embrace the opportunity to empty the bench ASAP against a triple-option outfit that will struggle to complete a forward pass. The 2 best teams The Citadel has faced this season, North Dakota State and Mercer, beat the Bulldogs by a combined score of 76-0.

Prediction: Ole Miss 48 | The Citadel 3

OFF THIS WEEK: Arkansas, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas

Scoreboard

Week 10 record: 3-3 straight-up | 3-3 vs. spread
Season Record: 77-17 straight-up | 40-49 vs. spread

The post Week 11 SEC Primer: It’s time for Texas A&M to put the November blues to bed appeared first on Saturday Down South.

1. Ty Simpson, Alabama

There’s a lot of football left, but as it stands Simpson’s Heisman odds suggest he is on track for an invitation to New York as a Heisman finalist. So is Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin, who originally signed with Alabama and spent about 15 minutes in Tuscaloosa in January 2024 before Nick Saban‘s retirement gave him second thoughts. The two never actually stepped on the practice field together, much less competed for reps. Both are in ideal situations that they themselves have elevated and that have elevated them. Still, as they begin to separate from the pack, who can resist contemplating a little alternate history: What if Sayin had stayed?

Would he still be biding his time as Simpson’s understudy in his second year on campus? A Heisman candidate backed up by a future Heisman candidate would certainly not be unheard of at Bama, although notably the late Saban-era line of succession from Jalen Hurts through Bryce Young predated the portal era. Or, given a clean slate under a coaching staff that didn’t recruit either of them, would Sayin’s talent have burned too brightly to keep under wraps, relegating Simpson to the portal instead? Based on Sayin’s over-the-top performance in the Buckeyes’ win over Penn State, it’s hard to argue there’s any quarterback in the college game right now who could fend him off — even Simpson, who has aced the test against a significantly stiffer schedule since the Tide’s opening-day debacle at Florida State. Then again, if Simpson had the luxury of going months at a time without facing a ranked opponent while throwing to Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, maybe he’d look undeniable, too. He’s looking just fine as it is throwing to Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard. The Heisman vote is one thing, but if it were to come down to a head-to-head postseason collision to settle the score, would anyone object to that?

Last week: 1⬌

2. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt

The Commodores’ success is based on taking care of the ball, controlling the clock, playing with a lead, and generally keeping Pavia out of must-throw situations. Against Texas, they failed on all counts, and quickly: Pavia fumbled on the opening series, faced a 17-0 hole in the first quarter, and spent the rest of the afternoon in comeback mode, enduring a career-high 6 sacks along the way. Vanderbilt trailed 34-10 at the end of the 3rd, its largest deficit at any point in Pavia’s 22 games as QB1.

So the fact that it still ultimately came down to a failed onside kick that very nearly went Vandy’s way must be a testament to something. Back against the wall, Pavia led 3 4th-quarter touchdown drives — one of which consisted of a single play vs. busted coverage — finishing with career highs for drop-backs (49), attempts (38), completions (27) and passing yards (365) while salvaging just enough respectability in defeat to keep the ‘Dores from being laughed out of the Playoff race. If they’d managed to pounce on the decisive onside kick before the ball skittered out of bounds, there was very little doubt by that point that Pavia would have put the kicker in position to send the game to overtime and kept on going from there. The stakes are too high for moral victories, but then, any sentence invoking high stakes for Vanderbilt football after the clocks change kinda speaks for itself.

Last week: 2

3. Gunner Stockton, Georgia

I respected Stockton’s decision to take a knee at the 1-yard line at the end of the Bulldogs’ 24-20 win over Florida rather than score a walk-in touchdown that would have covered the 7.5-point spread. I really did. Am I salty that it prevented my pregame prediction of a 31-20 final score from hitting on the nose? Of course not! I don’t bet money, and anyway, I nailed the 38-35 final score in Mississippi State’s win over Arkansas, so my ego was sated. I would never yell futilely at the television over something so petty as a point spread. I was yelling “sportsmanship!” That’s all.

• Last week: 3

4. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M

The tallest remaining hurdles standing between A&M and a perfect regular season are both on the road, at Missouri and Texas, and the Aggies certainly don’t need to be reminded again about last year’s November crash. But whatever lingering doubts they might have had about Reed’s ability to finish the job, they’re receding by the week. For one thing, there’s the simple fact that he’s healthy and entrenched, nothing to take for granted at a program that hasn’t had an opening-day starter make it this far into a season without being injured or benched since Kellen Mond in 2020. For another, he’s been money on the road: Reed’s 3 best games of the season per Total QBR have come in wins at Notre Dame, Arkansas and LSU, in which he’s accounted for 1,042 total yards and 10 touchdowns. A&M scored 40+ points in each of those games – and in the trips to South Bend and Fayetteville, needed every one of them.

• Last week: 5

5. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

Chambliss brings a lot to the table as a dual-threat, but his production as a passer has flat-lined in conference play. In Ole Miss’ past 4 SEC games (vs. LSU, Georgia, Oklahoma and South Carolina), he’s mostly treaded water, completing just 53.6% of his attempts while turning in a subpar 123.2 passer rating. Not that the Rebels are complaining with a 3-1 record in those games and a clear path to the Playoff in front of them. Looking ahead to the their championship aspirations, though, his ceiling against Playoff-caliber competition must be among their top concerns.

• Last week: 4

6. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee

By most accounts, Tennessee “won” the “trade” that resulted in Aguilar replacing Nico Iamaleava as QB1. Statistically, Aguilar has been a clear upgrade. He’s already thrown for more yards and touchdowns than Iamaleava in 2024 on fewer attempts, posting significantly better ratings in terms of both efficiency and Total QBR. He has been vastly more efficient throwing downfield. As a team, the Vols’ scoring average in SEC play has improved by 11 points per game. But what Aguilar has given the Vols in explosiveness, he has cost them dearly with his penchant for killer turnovers.

Aguilar’s reckless streak was a well-documented red flag coming into the season based on his FBS-worst 14 interceptions in 2024 at Appalachian State. So the prophecy has come to pass: In Tennessee’s 3 biggest games — losses to Georgia in September, Alabama in October and Oklahoma on Saturday night — he has thrown 5 INTs; that includes a pair of picks in an overtime loss to the Bulldogs and a crucial, 99-yard pick-6 at Bama that put the Vols behind the 8-ball for the rest of the night in an eventual 37-20 defeat. In Saturday’s must-win date against the Sooners, Aguilar was responsible for 3 giveaways in rapid succession in the first half, all of which led to OU points in a game it initially looked like Tennessee might run away with. In addition to 2 interceptions, he was also victimized on the single biggest swing play of the night, a strip sack that turned a burgeoning scoring opportunity into seven points going the other way.

All defensive and special teams touchdowns represent a dramatic turn of events, but in a de facto Playoff elimination game ultimately decided by 6 points, this one may go down as the turning point in both teams’ seasons. Per the comprehensive box score at gameonpaper.com, R Mason Thomas’ epic, awkward journey to the end zone represented a whopping 11.7-point swing in Extra Points Added, making it not just the most pivotal play in Oklahoma’s eventual win, but the most pivotal play per EPA in any SEC game to date this season. The play it displaced from the top of the list: Alabama’s field-flipping pick-six off Aguilar in Week 8, which represented an 11.3-point swing. No other play has registered in the double digits.

• Last week: 6⬌

7. Taylen Green, Arkansas

Another week, another high-flying defeat for the Razorbacks, this time in a 38-35 decision against Mississippi State in which the Hogs were penalized 18 times for an astonishing 193 yards. For the season, Arkansas has averaged more points in its 5 conference losses (33.4) than all but 2 of this week’s ranked SEC teams have averaged in their conference wins. And those 2 teams, Tennessee and Texas A&M, only come out ahead by virtue of having been in shootouts against Arkansas!

• Last week: 7⬌

8. Arch Manning, Texas

By now, we all have a clear mental image of Arch at his worst: Feet planted, patting the ball a beat too long, scanning futilely downfield until the last possible moment before panicking in the face of oncoming rushers. Saturday’s win over Vanderbilt might have been our first glimpse of Arch — the current, work-in-progress version, anyway — at his best: Well-protected and determined to stay that way by treating the ball like a live grenade. Coming off a week in the concussion protocol, Manning embraced the Quinn Ewers self-preservation playbook, setting a season-high for attempts behind the line of scrimmage (12) and a season-low for average time to throw (2.42 seconds, per PFF). More than three-fourths of his 328 passing yards against the Commodores came after the catch, including a 75-yard chunk on the first snap of the game.

A midseason reversion to Ewers Ball is a little bit ironic given just how eager ‘Horns fans were to trade screens and RPOs for more downfield explosiveness, and just how much of the preseason hype cycle anticipated Manning’s ability to generate it. Steve Sarkisian made the point himself a few weeks back, conceding that Arch’s deer-in-the-headlights moments in the early going were partly the result of a deliberate plan to stretch the field. Over the first 6 games, a little more than 20% of Manning’s attempts covered 20+ air yards, one of the highest rates in the conference. Over the past 3 games, that number is just 8.5%, among the lowest rates. He was 0-for-3 throwing downfield against Vandy, in what was widely hailed as a redemptive performance.

While we’re on the subject of YAC, I’d be remiss here if I didn’t mention an atrocious tackling-in-space effort by Vanderbilt’s defense. PFF cited the ‘Dores for 20 missed tackles, a huge but very believable number if you watched the game, with half of those demerits assigned to just 2 individuals. Looking ahead, Texas can’t count on anywhere near as much free real estate in its upcoming dates against Georgia and Texas A&M, both must-wins to keep the ‘Horns’ CFP hopes alive. As reassuring as it was to watch a confident, efficient Manning operating in his comfort zone behind a (finally) healthy o-line, Sarkisian’s promise to “dig deep” into his team’s tendencies and issues during the off week should include some ideas for reigniting the downfield spark without leaving his franchise quarterback vulnerable. (Not to pick on a freshman, but leaving struggling guard Nick Brooks on the bench would be a good start; the OL looked like a different unit on Saturday without him in the lineup.) The arrow is pointing up, but we have yet to see the complete package.

• Last week: 12

9. John Mateer, Oklahoma

Mateer was significantly better as a runner than as a passer in the Sooners’ season-salvaging win at Tennessee, churning out a season-high 93 yards on the ground (excluding sacks) on 6.2 per carry. Between Mateer, freshman Tory Blaylock, and chunky sophomore Xavier Robinson, the Sooners have managed to run the ball effectively in 3 consecutive games after a couple of dismal outings on the ground in their first 2 SEC games against Auburn and Texas. A good thing, too, because Mateer continued to struggle pushing the ball downfield since rushing back from hand surgery. Per PFF, he was 1-for-3 on attempts of 20+ air yards against the Vols, and is just 2-for-17 in 4 games since his return to the lineup.

• Last week: 8

10. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Unfortunately, the Tigers cannot hit the “sim to the end of the season” button and advance directly to the announcement of a new head coach. In the meantime, interim head coach Frank Wilson has made it plain that Nussmeier’s job is safe, at least for this weekend’s anticlimactic trip to Alabama. But he also said this week that coaches will “look at the opportunities” to get backup Michael Van Buren Jr. involved, as well, which frankly would suit LSU fans just fine. Even if it costs Nussmeier a chance to throw for 3,000 yards again.

Van Buren has barely played this season after arriving from Mississippi State, where he started 8 games as a true freshman in 2024. He was last seen in Week 9 leading a token garbage-time touchdown drive against Texas A&M in a nearly empty Tiger Stadium. If Van Buren has designs on competing for the starting job in ’26, a live audition down the stretch could advance his cause, or at least make it clear enough that he doesn’t have one to given him enough time to find greener pastures. Nussmeier, of course, is auditioning for the NFL, where he’s still considered a viable project in spite of, well, (gestures broadly). But the moment that status starts to look wobbly, they are running out of reasons not to break the glass in case of emergency.

• Last week: 10⬌

11. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

There have been plenty of gifted QBs on bad teams, many of whom have gone on to long and productive careers at the next level. But rarely has the gap between the potential behind center and the grim reality of the surrounding cast been as wide at this level as it is right now at South Carolina. Say what you will about Sellers’ development at this stage of his career, or lack thereof. He is flawed. In the context of the Gamecocks’ offense, though, how can you say anything at all? If he was living up to his enormous gifts, how different would it look than it actually does on a unit this bereft? With all of the vagaries involved in projecting quarterbacks to the next level even in the best of circumstances, how does a pro scout even approach this situation? Every Gamecocks game is a ritual trial by fire that leaves Sellers fleeing for his life.

That was 1 of 6 sacks on Saturday night for Ole Miss, raising Sellers’ total to an SEC-worst 33 sacks for the season on a league-worst 44.7% pressure rate. Somebody’s walking the plank after an effort like that, and since they already fired the offensive line coach a few weeks back it was offensive coordinator Mike Shula’s turn to take the plunge on Sunday. He leaves behind an attack that ranks dead last in the SEC in total offense, scoring offense, rushing offense (due largely to negative yardage on sacks), yards per play and first downs.

Shane Beamer is running out of other people to sacrifice. As badly as he wants people to stop asking him about the head-coaching vacancy at his alma mater, Virginia Tech, the fact is that as the losses and frustration mount, the speculation that Beamer will decide to walk while the door is open only not going away. Either way, Sellers owes it to himself to find a situation in 2026 that gives him a chance.

• Last week: 9

12. DJ Lagway, Florida

Lagway’s surrounding cast is not nearly as dire as Sellers’ at full strength, but he is in a similarly tenuous situation in Gainesville as a stagnant sophomore campaign limps toward the finish line. Through 8 games, he has delivered exactly 1 performance that lived up to the hype, finishing with a stellar 94.2 QBR rating in the Gators’ 29-21 win over Texas in Week 6. In 5 their other 6 games vs. FBS opponents, he has turned in a rating in the 50s, including a 54.5 in Saturday’s loss to Georgia; in the 6th, a 26-7 loss at Miami in Week 4, he bottomed out with a 25.6. His most talented receiver, freshman Dallas Wilson, is on the shelf for the rest of the season due to a foot injury, and leading receiver Vernell Brown III remains questionable after missing the UGA game with a shoulder injury. The next coaching staff has to decide for itself how much of the current lineup is worth salvaging, but even the locals are beginning to wonder if Lagway would be better off hitting reset somewhere else in Year 3.

• Last week: 11

13. Blake Shapen, Mississippi State

Shapen left the Bulldogs’ eventual win at Arkansas early in the 3rd quarter to be evaluated for a potential concussion. Shortly after, I wrote in my notes “Kamario Taylor is the quarterback” after the touted freshman came off the bench to account for 95 total yards and 2 touchdowns – 1 rushing, 1 passing – in a span of 15 plays. I’ve seen enough!

I underlined the note after Shapen returned to the game, only to immediately throw an tip-drill interception that caromed of his receiver’s hands on his first attempt; Arkansas promptly converted the pick into a touchdown, extending its lead to 35-21 in the kind of game where every defensive stop comes at a premium. 

Jeff Lebby, however, wasn’t so eager to pull the plug on his sixth-year starter, and he was vindicated: Shapen remained in the game to lead 3 4th-quarter scoring drives while the defense repeatedly turned the Hogs back to snap Mississippi State’s 16-game SEC losing streak, 38-35. Shapen, awarded a game ball in the aftermath, gave the ball to Taylor in recognition of his service, but will not be forfeiting his status atop the depth chart heading into this weekend’s home date with Georgia. We’ll see how long the status quo holds before the cowbells clang for the kid.

• Last week: 13⬌

14. Cutter Boley, Kentucky

One of my favorite running subplots of the season is Kentucky’s’ epic weekly struggle to complete a downfield pass. I will give them this: They haven’t stopped trying. Boley was 0-for-5 on attempts of 20+ air yards Saturday in the Wildcats’ first SEC win, an unwatchable, 10-3 slog over Auburn featuring as many punts as points. For the season, he and opening-day starter Zach Calzada are an incredible 6/46 throwing deep, a combined completion percentage of 13 percent.

• Last week: 14⬌

15. Jackson Arnold or Ashton Daniels, Auburn

Daniels went most of the way in the Tigers’ loss to Kentucky, briefly yielding to Arnold in the 4th quarter before returning to oversee the emblematic drive of Auburn’s season: A last-gasp, 15-play march that sputtered out at midfield. Thus ended Hugh Freeze‘s doomed tenure as head coach, on a run of seven consecutive quarters without an offensive touchdown. 

Regardless of who starts or how they divvy up reps down the stretch – somebody still has to take the field in the Iron Bowl – all eyes now are on the heir apparent, 5-star freshman Deuce Knight, who has yet to take a meaningful snap but will almost certainly be the only scholarship quarterback the next coaching staff makes any effort to retain. After wide receiver Cam Coleman, Knight arguably has the biggest target on his back of any potential transfer on the roster. If it’s even possible at this point to keep them both, the cost likely just went way up.

• Last week: 15⬌

16. Matt Zollers, Missouri

Mizzou is cautiously optimistic about Beau Pribula‘s recovery from what initially looked like a season-ending ankle injury. If he does play again in 2025, though, it won’t be in this weekend’s upset bid against Texas A&M. Instead, the task of keeping the Tigers’ dwindling Playoff hopes alive falls to a true freshman, Zollers, in his first career start. Ideally, Zollers would be firmly on the redshirt track right now rather than holding the fate of a once-promising season in his hands against a top-5 opponent. (Recall that the original QB2, redshirt junior Sam Horn, suffered a season-ending injury in the opener, elevating Zollers into the role.) But as fledgling QBs facing daunting circumstances go, well, at least he has Ahmad Hardy to hand off to.

• Last week: 16⬌

The post SEC QB Rankings, Week 11: Arch Manning takes the next step by pulling back on the throttle appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Freeze out

Hugh Freeze was hired at Auburn with 2 more or less explicit goals: Improve the offense and beat Alabama. In Year 3, he failed so thoroughly at the first part that he’s not even going to get a chance at the second. He was officially shown the door on Sunday, hours after his fate was sealed in an unwatchable, 10-3 flop against Kentucky that dropped Freeze’s record to a dismal 6-16 vs. SEC opponents.

Thus continues an unprecedented spree of mid-stream firings across college football, with an entire month remaining in the regular season and no end in sight. (If the final score had gone the other way on Saturday night, I might have been writing the obituary for the Mark Stoops era at Kentucky instead, and probably will be soon enough.) Sometimes, it’s difficult to get a grasp on exactly where it all went wrong, especially when it unravels as quickly as, say, Brian Kelly‘s ouster at LSU, or if it involves some behind-the-scenes melodrama that’s only beginning to come into public view. Freeze made it easy. Whatever there was to say about his relationship with his boss or notoriously meddlesome Auburn boosters, he came by his demise honestly. Everything you really needed to know about what was going wrong and how was right out there on the field, reflected in one of the worst winning percentages in modern school history and an offense that only seemed to get worse the more money they poured into it.

Lord knows, they spent the money. In Year 3, the Tigers finally fielded a lineup built in Freeze’s image, with only a small handful of players who were on the roster he inherited from his doomed predecessor, Bryan Harsin. They invested in the quarterback room, adding 5-star talent via the transfer portal (Jackson Arnold) and the traditional signing class (Deuce Knight, a late-breaking defector from Notre Dame last winter). They invested in upgrading the talent level at wide receiver, shelling out for one of the highest-rated recruits in school history (Cam Coleman) and arguably the best available wideout in the ’25 portal class (Eric Singleton Jr.). They added veteran starters at both tackle positions and at tight end. And all they have to show for it as the calendar turns to November is one of the lousiest attacks anyone can remember, one that ranks dead last in SEC play in total offense, scoring offense, yards per play, pass efficiency, red-zone efficiency, sacks allowed, and much else.

Before hitting rock bottom against Kentucky, the offense managed a grand total of 7 touchdowns in its first 5 SEC games, including 1 at Texas A&M set up by the defense at the A&M 2-yard line. Arnold, allegedly a seven-figure quarterback, kept putting the ball in the air to little effect despite his inconsistency, his inability to challenge defenses downfield, and his o-line’s inability to protect him. In the end, the Tigers benched Arnold following a pick-6 at Arkansas in Week 9; failed to reach the end zone in 5 consecutive quarters under backup Ashton Daniels; allowed Arnold to make a brief, futile appearance in the fourth quarter against the Wildcats; and went out amid a chorus of boos as their last-gasp possession unraveled in the face of what, prior to Saturday night, had been a relatively anemic UK pass rush. Appropriately, the last play of the Freeze era was a desperation heave under duress that sailed well beyond any Auburn receiver and directly into the arms of a waiting Wildcats DB.

On some fundamental level, every Auburn coach must understand from the outset he’s hired to be fired. For decades, life in this job has only ended one way. Used to be, though, that at least they could count on enjoying a peak or two en route to the valley of death. Terry Bowden (1993-98) and Tommy Tuberville (1999-2008) both delivered undefeated seasons and winning records vs. Alabama. Gene Chizik (2009-2012) delivered the most improbable national championship of the BCS/CFP era. Gus Malzahn (2013-20) took a team that failed to win an SEC game the year before his arrival to within 13 seconds of another title in his first season, and went 3-1 vs. peak Death Star-era Bama in Jordan-Hare Stadium. All destined for the scrap heap, eventually, but not without a taste of winning big first.

But since they decided in December 2020 that Malzahn (who never presided over a losing record) was no longer winning big enough, the result has been a flat line of mediocrity or worse: Four consecutive losing seasons, with a fifth in progress, officially Auburn’s longest streak in the red since Shug Jordan himself — the last Auburn coach to leave more or less on his own terms — was hired in 1951. In the depths of the pandemic, the locals weren’t thinking about how much worse things could get, but how much better. As I wrote at the time, dumping Malzahn and his then-astronomical $21.5 million buyout was a bet on the program’s ceiling — a statement that “good enough,” as defined by a steady run of 8- and 9-win seasons that top out in a noon kickoff in the Peach Bowl, isn’t good enough:

To some extent, Malzahn’s legacy will depend on whether that gamble pays off: If the story of the next few years is Auburn successfully leveling up to the point that November rivalry dates with Georgia and Bama are consistently arriving with Playoff implications, the last nine years may be remembered as frustrating ones when the program never quite realized its full potential. If not – if it’s more of the same old cycle of fleeting success and eventual disappointment for the fourth consecutive decade and counting, or worse – Malzahn could just as easily go down as a winner for whom expectations (yet again) outran reality.

Not quite 5 years later, “fleeting success” doesn’t seem like such a sneer, does it? Neither Harsin nor Freeze came close to any kind of success, fleeting or otherwise, recording 10 SEC wins between them with a combined 0-9 record vs. Bama and Georgia. In the same span, the Tigers lost at home to the likes of New Mexico State — the first sign of just how cursed the Freeze era would turn out to be — as well as to unranked versions of Mississippi State, Arkansas, California, Arkansas again, Vanderbilt and finally Kentucky. Their only win over a ranked opponent, a dramatic upset over then-No. 15 Texas A&M in four overtimes last November, came at the expense of a team that fell out of the polls altogether a week later. In the meantime, the would-be franchise quarterback they’d written off as a bust went on to fulfill his potential as a Heisman finalist and first-round draft pick on the opposite side of the country, while Auburn continued to cycle through one failed experiment behind center after another.

Is it possible for the next Bo Nix to fulfill his potential at Auburn? Jackson Arnold, whose scouting report may as well have been generated from the source code of a Bo Nix simulation, was supposed to be the answer to that question. And in a way he has been — just not the one the Tigers were hoping for, by a long shot. Then again, under the same circumstances, who would have been? Cam Coleman’s presence aside, Arnold seemed set up to fail behind an overmatched front and play-calling that even Freeze conceded relied too heavily on Arnold to be something he’s evidently not at this stage of his career: A polished pocket passer.

Whoever comes next will face the same question, whether it’s in regard to Deuce Knight or the next big-ticket addition in the portal. Auburn is not about to stop going all-in to win. But the last thing it can afford is to become the place that hits reset every two-and-a-half years. Forget the buyout. The first thing the Tigers owe the next administration is patience to pick up the pieces.

The agony and the ecstasy of Joey Aguilar

By most accounts, Tennessee “won” the “trade” that resulted in Joey Aguilar replacing Nico Iamaleava as QB1. Statistically, Aguilar has been a clear upgrade. He’s already thrown for more yards and touchdowns than Iamaleava in 2024 on fewer attempts, posting significantly better ratings in terms of both efficiency and Total QBR. He has been vastly more efficient throwing downfield. As a team, the Vols’ scoring average in SEC play has improved by 11 points per game. But what Aguilar has given the Vols in explosiveness, he has cost them dearly with his penchant for killer turnovers.

Aguilar’s reckless streak was a well-documented red flag coming into the season based on his FBS-worst 14 interceptions in 2024 at Appalachian State. So it has come to pass: In Tennessee’s 3 biggest games — losses to Georgia in September, Alabama in October, and Oklahoma on Saturday night — he has thrown 5 INTs; that includes a pair of picks in an overtime loss to the Bulldogs and a crucial, 99-yard pick-6 at Bama that put the Vols behind the 8-ball for the rest of the night in an eventual 37-20 defeat. In Saturday’s must-win date against the Sooners, Aguilar was responsible for 3 giveaways in rapid succession in the first half, all of which led to OU points in a game it initially looked like Tennessee might run away with. In addition to 2 interceptions, he was also victimized on the single biggest swing play of the night, a strip sack that turned a burgeoning scoring opportunity into 7 points going the other way.

All defensive and special teams touchdowns represent a dramatic turn of events, but in a de facto CFP elimination game ultimately decided by 6 points, this one might go down as the turning point in both teams’ seasons. Per the comprehensive box score at gameonpaper.com, R Mason Thomas’ epic, awkward journey to the end zone represented a whopping 11.7-point swing in Extra Points Added, making it not just the most pivotal play in Oklahoma’s eventual win, but the most pivotal play per EPA in any SEC game to date this season. The play it displaced from the top of the list: Alabama’s field-flipping pick-six off Aguilar in Week 8, which represented an 11.3-point swing. No other play has registered in the double digits.

The Sooners did not save their season on a single play in the first quarter, but it’s not a stretch to suggest they could not have won without it. At that point, Tennessee had already housed the opening possession of the game, a 9-play, 75-yard touchdown drive, and was on the verge of putting Oklahoma in a 2-score hole with the Neyland Stadium crowd at full tilt. The mood swing in real time was arguably as seismic as the one on paper. It was also emblematic of Tennessee’s inability to cash in on scoring opportunities throughout the game. Although the Vols moved the ball fairly consistently, they also consistently left points on the board, failing to score on 3 subsequent trips inside the OU 40-yard line. Altogether, 214 of their 456 total yards on the night were “empty” yards, or yards gained on possessions that ultimately yielded zero points.

Arch of progress

Arch Manning turned in easily his best game as a Longhorn Saturday in a 34-31 win over Vanderbilt, which was significantly more lopsided in Texas’ favor than the final score implied. (As a rule, if the game ends on a failed onside kick, it wasn’t really that close. Although Vandy came very close to recovering that kick.) That’s a credit to Manning, of course, who has endured an unbearable level of scrutiny this season as he’s grown in fits and starts into the job. Just like the criticism, though, the hosannas are subject to context. He didn’t suddenly turn into a new quarterback against a top-10 opponent. Texas just succeeded in keeping him in his comfort zone.

First of all, it certainly didn’t hurt that Texas was finally back in Austin coming off a month of mostly harrowing finishes on the road. Weirdly, Saturday was the Longhorns’ first home game in conference play (they were the designated home team for their neutral-site win over Oklahoma in Dallas) and they appeared chuffed to be back. More important, it was their first game in weeks with a relatively healthy and intact offensive line, which did everything in its power to make Manning look good. After weeks of being pummeled in front of hostile crowds, Manning was virtually untouchable on Saturday, facing pressure on just 6 of his 34 drop-backs on the afternoon, per Pro Football Focus, a dramatic decline from his season-to-date pressure rate of more than 40% coming into the game. The Commodores managed to hit him once, planting him on the turf as he released the last of his 3 touchdown passes. Otherwise, his only notable miscue was biffing the celebration after his 2nd TD pass earlier in the day.

Even more important, Steve Sarkisian did his part in protecting his recently concussed meal ticket by calling a game designed to get the ball out of Manning’s hands as quickly as possible. One of the indelible images of the season to date is the opposing pass rush bearing down on Manning as he looks to throw downfield behind a collapsing pocket. Not on Saturday, when Sarkisian dusted off the screen-heavy, quick passing game playbook that served the much less dynamic Quinn Ewers well last year. The first snap of the game, a quick perimeter toss to Ryan Wingo that could have just as easily have gone in the box score as a run rather than a 75-yard touchdown reception, set the tone for an extremely YAC-heavy afternoon.

There was a lot of that, albeit with slightly fewer fireworks on the receiving end. Altogether, 19 of Manning’s 33 attempts fell within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, per PFF, including a dozen attempts behind the line, a season high; meanwhile, 252 of Texas’ 328 receiving yards (77%) came after the catch.

On the other side of the coin, Manning was 0-for-3 on attempts of 20+ air yards, and was only credited with 1 “big-time throw” by PFF’s graders. At some point the Longhorns might need more from him downfield, and more from the beleaguered o-line to make sure he has the time to deliver it. On an afternoon when the priority was limited his exposure to hits coming out of the concussion protocol, the quick game served its purpose, and then some. Now, they have a week off to go back to the drawing board ahead of a trip to Georgia. Trying to outflank the Bulldogs is rarely a winning idea, as the ‘Horns learned last year the hard way.

CFP Realpolitik

It’s that time of year, when the fog begins to lift and the outlines of the postseason picture begin to come into view. Each week down the home stretch, CFP Realpolitik will size up the pecking order from a strictly practical perspective.

Last week we established that, barring a mind-blowing turn of event down the stretch, we can confidently forecast 7 Playoff bids for the Big Ten and SEC: Alabama, Georgia, Indiana, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Oregon and Texas A&M. Playoff odds suggest the same. This week, nothing has changed. “Green Zone” teams were 4-0 in Week 10; they occupy the top 7 spots in both major polls for the second week in a row; and all 7 still boast odds of at least 75% to make the field, per ESPN’s Football Power Index. There are no remaining head-to-head meetings between them in November, meaning all 7 control their own Playoff fate. I would not go so far as to say all 7 can afford a loss over the coming weeks — although the 3 undefeated teams on the list certainly can — but there is enough margin for error at this point that a loss would not necessarily be a dealbreaker, either. Worst-case scenario, 1 or 2 of them wind up sweating out Selection Sunday morning on the bubble.

For now, that leaves 3 automatic spots up for grabs in the ACC, Big 12 and Group of 5, and 2 at-large bids for everyone else. That’s where the speculation resides, because all 5 of those spots remain very much up for grabs.

ACC chaos engaged. The runaway preseason favorite, Clemson, is 2-4 in conference play and driving Dabo Swinney to the brink of his sanity. Florida State, which briefly cracked the top 10 on the strength of its opening-day ambush of Alabama, started 0-4 in ACC play before finally getting on the board Saturday against Wake Forest. Miami, which resided at No. 2 in the AP poll less than 3 weeks ago, has lost 2 of its past 3 to a pair of unranked opponents. Typical Canes, right? Georgia Tech, darling of the cool kids on the strength of an 8-0 start, went down in decisive fashion Saturday in a random, 48-36 loss at NC State.

In the absence of a clear-cut frontrunner, there is Virginia, which sits in sole possession of first place with a 5-0 conference record. (Hilariously, UVA’s only loss also came against NC State, in a nonconference meeting that officially does not count in the standings.) How much faith should you have in Virginia to win the ACC? Well, in addition to the loss to NC State — and in addition to being, you know, Virginia — 3 of the Cavaliers’ 5 ACC wins have come in overtime, including a 17-16 nail-biter against previously hapless North Carolina decided on a failed 2-point conversion. There’s a come-from-behind, 22-20 win over Washington State also in the mix, decided on — I swear I am not making this up — a game-winning safety. If Virginia is 1 of the 12 best teams in the country, I’m in the running for the Nobel Prize for literature.

Then again, who’s gonna stop the Hoos? They only need to be good enough to beat Wake Forest, Duke, and a lame-duck version of Virginia Tech down the stretch to punch their ticket to the ACC Championship Game, where their likely opponent will be … uh, one of a half-dozen mediocre outfits currently sporting a 4-1 or 5-1 conference mark, none of which currently controls its fate. If you want to do the math on potential tiebreaker scenarios, be my guest. I would suggest watching highlights of Pitt’s true freshman QB sensation, Mason Heintschel, instead until it’s possible to discern a signal amid the noise.

Is the Big 12 a 2-bid league? Nationally, only 1 game remains pitting 2 teams currently ranked in the top 10: No. 8 BYU at no. 9 Texas Tech this weekend. The outcome in Lubbock will go a long way to sorting out the rest of the Big 12 race, with the winner clearly seizing the pole position for the conference’s automatic bid. Tech opened as a 10.5-point favorite, reflecting the consensus that the Red Raiders (whose only loss came with starting QB Behren Morton sidelined by injury at Arizona State) are the class of the league.

Either way, by most projections this weekend’s collision is only the prelim ahead of a potential rematch in the Big 12 Championship Game. I have to say potential, rather than likely, because that is by no means a given with Cincinnati (5-1 in conference play) still very much in the mix despite a wipeout loss at Utah on Saturday — the Bearcats host BYU on Nov. 22 in another pivotal game. The Utes are not out of it, either, although at 4-2 with head-to-head losses to Texas Tech and BYU they need a lot of variables to fall their way. But the best-case scenario for the conference is straightforward: A close, compelling game between BYU and Tech this weekend, followed by a close, compelling rematch in Arlington on Dec. 6. If both teams take care of their business against the rest of their schedules, the loser in the title game could still be in prime position to claim the last at-large spot, especially if the result of the 2 head-to-head meetings is a split. Any other scenario, and the outlook is probably championship or bust.

The SEC’s drive for 5. Again, the SEC can safely anticipate 4 teams in the field. Projecting a 5th is much dicier. Three of the 4 teams currently on the bubble — Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas — have multiple games remaining against ranked opponents; the next games on their respective schedules are against Texas A&M, Alabama (in Tuscaloosa), and Georgia (in Athens). After that, Missouri and Oklahoma go head-to-head in Norman in Week 13, and Texas hosts A&M in Week 14. The 4th bubble team, Vanderbilt, still faces a season-ending trip to Tennessee. All of the above face an uphill battle to arrive at 10-2.

Mizzou and Vandy must win out. I would not be optimistic about the prospects of Oklahoma or Texas crashing the field at 9-3, but that doesn’t mean they won’t have enough of a case to make a stink about it, just like Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina last year. For one thing, to finish 9-3, the Sooners and Longhorns would both have to add another quality win to their résumés. If the debate over the final at-large ticket(s) comes down to OU/Texas vs. a 10-2 Notre Dame, or the loser of the Big 12 Championship Game, the “skins on the wall” argument would surely favor the former. That didn’t carry the day last year — nor should it have, under the circumstances — but after 12 months of lobbying, who knows? One of the most interesting variables to keep an eye on during the initial release of the CFP committee’s weekly ratings on Tuesday night is where Oklahoma and Texas fall in relation to Notre Dame. The traditional polls favor the Irish, for now. If the committee follows suit, take that as a signal that the margin for error for the Sooners and ‘Horns is approximately zero.

Dude of the Week: Ole Miss RB Kewan Lacy

Ole Miss’ backfield underwhelmed in 2024, plagued by injuries and inconsistency. The result was a committee approach that never came close to replacing workhorse Quinshon Judkins following his transfer to Ohio State. Improving the talent level was a top offseason priority. Enter Lacy, an unsung transfer from Missouri whom the Rebels had recruited out of high school and wasted no time putting to work as the undisputed RB1. Through 9 games, he has toted the rock more times than any other FBS player this season, his 23 touches per game slightly exceeding Judkins’ heavy-duty pace in 2022-23.

Also like Judkins, Lacy is a grinder who packs more punch than his listed 210 pounds and gets most of his yards the hard way. Per PFF, he’s No. 2 nationally in missed tackles forced (65) and 3rd in yards after contact (632). In Ole Miss’ 33-14 win over South Carolina, Lacy logged 24 carries, forced 7 missed tackles, and generated more than three-fourths of his 167 rushing yards after contact.

Unlike Judkins, who rarely flashed breakaway speed, Lacy has an extra gear in the open field, on full display on Saturday night on a game-clinching, 54-yard touchdown run in the 4thquarter. After leaving a would-be tackler at the line of scrimmage grasping at air, he proceeded to hit the jets, McFadden-style, racing straight through the heart of the Gamecocks’ secondary without breaking stride between the 50-yard line and the end zone.

Give the umpire an assist there for briefly screening a safety, but anybody capable of turning this …

… into a touchdown on a dead sprint has juice to spare. The safeties Lacy dusted on that play, Jalon Kilgore (No. 24) and DQ Smith (No. 1) are potential pros with 72 career starts between them. Next stop: All-SEC.

HONORABLE MENTION: Oklahoma kicker Tate Sandell, who connected on all 4 of his field-goal attempts in the Sooners’ win at Tennessee, including 3 from 50+ yards. Sandell, a transfer from UT-San Antonio, is 18-for-19 for the season and a perfect 6-for-6 from beyond 50. The kickers are too good!

Dud of the Week: South Carolina’s offense

I’m running out of new ways to describe how bad Carolina is on this side of the ball. Here’s one: Per efficiency guru Brian Fremeau, the Gamecocks are averaging a meager 1.41 points per drive this season, worst in the SEC and 123rd nationally. Here’s a representative example of what that looks like in action, which pretty well sums up the experience of watching LaNorris Sellers operate this season behind the league’s most unstable o-line:

That was 1 of 6 sacks on the night for Ole Miss, raising Sellers’ total to an SEC-worst 33 sacks for the season. Somebody’s walking the plank after an effort like that, and since they already fired the offensive line coach a few weeks back it was offensive coordinator Mike Shula’s turn to take the plunge Sunday.

Shane Beamer is running out of other people to sacrifice to an increasingly hostile fan base. The question at this point might not be so much whether he’s reconsidering bailing for the head-coaching vacancy at his alma mater, Virginia Tech, but whether the Hokies are still interested in him.

Notebook

1.) I respected Georgia QB Gunner Stockton’s decision to take a knee at the 1-yard line at the end of the Dawgs’ 24-20 win over Florida in the Cocktail Party rather than score a walk-in touchdown to cover the 7.5-point spread. I really did. Am I salty that it prevented my pregame prediction of a 31-20 final score from hitting on the nose? Of course not! I don’t bet money, and anyway, I nailed the 38-35 final score in Mississippi State’s win over Arkansas, so my ego was sated. I would never yell futilely at the television over something so petty as a point spread. I was yelling “sportsmanship!” That’s all.

2.) Two notable calls went against the Gators, both of which fell squarely into the “eye of the beholder” zone. The first came late in the first half, on an exquisitely timed and executed blitz by Florida DB Jordan Castell right into Stockton’s lap. Castell jarred the ball loose from Stockton’s hand for an apparent fumble … but not apparent enough, apparently. Upon further review, the call was overturned as an incomplete pass.

Am I overturning that if it’s up to me? No. Am I heatedly objecting? Also no. Georgia maintained possession and kicked a field goal to tie the score at 10-10 heading into halftime.

The second, and much more crucial, call came late in the 4th quarter, with Florida trailing 24-20 and down to what would turn out to be its last gasp on offense. On 3rd down, DJ Lagway found a wide-open J.Michael Sturdivant behind the UGA secondary, but couldn’t get enough mustard on the ball to hit him on his feet; instead, Sturdivant went to the ground to cradle a dive-bombing throw, which arrived at the perfect angle for everyone in the stadium and watching at home to see exactly what they needed to see to confirm whatever result they wanted.

From one angle, I thought “catch.” From the next, I thought “eh, it bounced.” From the next, man, I have no idea. The ruling on the field — no catch — stood, as it probably (?) should have given the inconclusiveness of the review. Florida failed to convert the ensuing 4th-down attempt and didn’t touch the ball again.

Am I sure? No. Am I objecting to the outcome? Again, no. Another rough day to be a Gator.

3.) A nice moment in Texas’ win over Vanderbilt: Texas fans, whose team’s Playoff chances are hanging by a thread after opening the season at No. 1 in the polls, directing the “O-VER-RA-TED” chant at … Vanderbilt.

4.) Vandy’s tackling was atrocious, especially in the first half. Clark Lea actually identified tackling in space as a potential issue before the game, telling reporters last week, “I don’t know that that’s been a strength for us in terms of leverage and closing spaces out there.” The man knows his team: PFF charged the ‘Dores with 20 missed tackles, including 6 by the usually sure-tackling safety CJ Heard.

Moment of Zen of the Week

The post Monday Down South: Auburn’s Hugh Freeze era was hard to watch and easy to end appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Game of the Week: Oklahoma at Tennessee (-3)

What’s up with Tennessee? For aspiring Playoff contenders, the Volunteers seem to be flying under the radar almost by design.

Of course, it was not part of any grand plan when the face-of-the-program quarterback abruptly moved to California in the middle of the offseason. At the time, Nico Iamaleava’s departure left the Vols without a headliner or readily identifiable identity. The best players on both sides of the ball from last year’s Playoff run all moved on; now the starting QB had, too. AP voters shrugged and slotted them at No. 24 in the preseason poll, a line reserved for dark-horses and wild cards. SEC media projected them to finish 9th in the conference.

Now, two-thirds of the way through the regular season, they remain … let’s say, enigmatic. What has changed? Who are these guys? If the season is unfolding more or less according to script, it feels like the audience is still waiting for the big reveal.

To their credit, the Vols are beating the teams they should beat, if not always convincingly. They’re 6-0 vs. unranked opponents, with their 3 conference wins to date — over Arkansas, Kentucky and Mississippi State — coming at the expense of teams with a combined 0-13 record in SEC play. Meanwhile, they’ve come up short in upset bids at Alabama and Georgia. Beat inferior teams, lose to superior ones, par for the course. In a chaotic season across the sport, that and a recognizable brand will get you to No. 14 as the calendar turns to November.

From one week to the next, though, the through line has not been quite so straight. Tennessee coulda, shoulda taken down Georgia in Week 3, racing out to an early lead only to eventually fall in overtime in a game it was 1 play from winning on multiple occasions; in particular, a missed field goal at the end of regulation continues to haunt the season. By the same token, the Vols could have just as easily taken a season-killing L at Mississippi State in Week 5, narrowly escaping Starkville with a 41-34 win in overtime. They struggled to put away Arkansas in a 34-31 decision in Week 7. Quarterback Joey Aguilar, a dark-horse/wild card figure behind center if ever there was one, has played the hero (in a bombs-away bonanza vs. Kentucky) and the goat (on a killer pick-6 vs. Alabama), and occasionally both in the same game (vs. Georgia and Mississippi State). The defense, the heart and soul of last year’s success, has allowed 30+ points in all 5 SEC games.

The upshot is an outfit that can still go either way in the home stretch, which arrives with real opportunity and zero margin for error. Matching last year’s 10-2 record remains on the table, and will almost certainly guarantee Tennessee a return trip to the Playoff. Just how likely that is, though, is as difficult to gauge at this point as it was back in August. In that sense, Saturday night may tell us more about the Volunteers’ prospects than we’ve learned through 8 games. Oklahoma is the first of 3 remaining opponents — followed by Florida and Vanderbilt in Weeks 13-14 — who fall somewhere in the conference pecking order between the Bama/Georgia tier and the basement, which also makes this weekend our first real opportunity to size up the Vols against another member of the league’s middle class.

One way or another, every game that OU and Tennessee plays from here on out will qualify as a de facto elimination game. At 6-2, the Sooners remain marginal Playoff contenders, their sinking odds owing just as much to a brutal November schedule ahead of them as to their October losses to Texas and Ole Miss. At least they’ve come by their longshot status honestly. The Vols still believe they have bigger fish to fry. If they’re right, now’s the time to prove it.

Prediction: • Tennessee 33, Oklahoma 28

Vanderbilt at Texas (-2.5)

Texas’ season is on the line and Arch Manning is in the concussion protocol. Does the potential absence of the nation’s most scrutinized player make this game less interesting, or more?

As battered as Manning has been this season, it was only a matter of time before he took one that left him seeing little cartoon birds orbiting his head. It came on the first play of overtime at Mississippi State, when Manning’s head bounced off the turf at the end of a first-down scramble, ending his afternoon. He returned to practice on Wednesday, but is officially listed as “questionable” to play against Vandy.

If he hasn’t been cleared by Saturday, the fate of the Longhorns’ fading Playoff hopes falls to backup QB Matthew Caldwell, a journeyman on his 4th school in 5 years. (The previous 3: Jacksonville State, Gardner-Webb and Troy, where he turned in a 3-3 record as a part-time starter in 2024.) In keeping with the old cliché about the popularity of the backup quarterback, Caldwell has generated some minor intrigue among Texas fans based on 2 throws: A 26-yard strike that kicked off Texas’ last-gasp drive at Florida after Manning lost his helmet on the previous play; and a in Starkville after Manning exited the game, which went down as the game-winner after the defense preserved a 45-38 escape. Those are Caldwell’s only meaningful attempts of the season, but hey, in a couple of clutch situations on the road he is 2-for-2.

Manning has not been as bad as the negativity surrounding his rocky start often implies, but the growing pains are real enough that it’s not a given right now that he’ll be missed on any given Saturday. If Caldwell delivers in a must-win game against a top-10 opponent, minor intrigue could easily erupt into a full-blown controversy. (And yes, due to time constraints we are going to skip the part where we marvel that Vanderbilt is a top-10 team. The ‘Dores are no secret anymore.) Imagine the enflamed state of the Arch Discourse if, after an 8-figure investment in the heir to the Manning family legacy, Texas’ best win of the season is shepherded by a generic FCS-grade transfer who arrived over the summer as an afterthought. Are you prepared? I’m not sure I am, at least without access to one of those airtight hazmat suits that protects the body from toxic radiation. Steve Sarkisian, who spent much of last season not-so-patiently deflecting speculation about whether Arch was on the verge of overtaking the extremely well-hyped Quinn Ewers, definitely is not. Regardless of whether the ‘Horns need Manning to be the guy who keeps the season afloat, if they’re being honest there’s no doubt they’d prefer it.

Prediction: • Vanderbilt 26, Texas 22

Georgia (-7.5) vs. Florida

The last time I wrote about the Dawgs in this space, I asked what was wrong with them. Even before their subsequent win over Ole Miss, that might have been a bit much. If these Dawgs project very little of the dominant aura of Kirby Smart‘s best teams, well, c’est la vie in the NIL/portal era. Aura or no aura, they’re right where they want to be: 7-1, No. 5 in both major polls, with their entire starting lineup and all of their goals intact. Compared to the rest of the sport right now, Georgia is a beacon of stability.

So here’s what I’d like to see from UGA in the Cocktail Party: A routine, drama-free win that looks like a top-5 outfit handling its business against an unranked rival playing out the string under an interim head coach. No sluggish start. No halftime deficit. No frantic 4th-quarter rally. No crowd shots of nervous fans with their hands on their heads as the sun sets. Just a straightforward, 4-quarter effort that doesn’t require anyone to reassess anything they thought at the beginning of the day — you know, a Georgia game. It’s been awhile since we’ve had one of those against an opponent that matters. Sure, this version of Florida only matters because it still says Gators on the helmets. All the more reason to spare us the suspense.

Prediction: • Georgia 31, Florida 20

South Carolina at Ole Miss (-12.5)

If any team knows better than to take a gilded path to the Playoff for granted, it’s Ole Miss, which memorably gacked away a golden ticket in 2024. Rebels fans have plenty of experience in the other shoe dropping this time of year and are prepared to tell you all about it. For once, though, the forecast really is clear. The Rebels split their big, back-to-back road tests at Georgia and Oklahoma, leaving them at 7-1 with the friendliest November slate this league has to offer: South Carolina and Florida at home, a layup against The Citadel, and a short trip to Mississippi State to close. They’re the only SEC team that doesn’t face another currently ranked opponent.

The most encouraging part of last week’s win at OU was the return of HAVOC. Last year, Ole Miss led the nation in havoc rate, defined by gameonpaper.com as the percentage of plays on which the defense records an interception, forced fumble, sack, tackle for loss, or pass broken up. No defense in America was more disruptive or spent more time in opposing backfields. This year, following a mass exodus from that unit, the ’25 Rebels rank dead last in the SEC in havoc rate at just 8.8%, down from 16.7% a year ago.

Against Oklahoma, though, you’d have thought they smuggled in the 2024 d-line under assumed names. Actually, 1 name was familiar: Princewill Umanmielen, younger brother of former Rebel (and current Carolina Panther) Princely Umanmielen, broke out in his own right against the Sooners, recording 7 QB pressures, 2 sacks, and a TFL that resulted in a safety. Between Umanmielen and Suntarine Perkins on the edge and emerging DTs Zxavian Harris and William Echoles on the interior, the outline of a formidable front is beginning to take shape. Meanwhile, choose your own adjective for South Carolina’s offensive line – beleaguered, bereft, ripe for the picking. The Gamecocks have already fired their o-line coach while giving up 22 sacks in SEC play. LaNorris Sellers running for his life on Saturday night might not be enough for the Rebels to upgrade the pass rush from a question mark to a strength on the merits, but let’s just say they should go back to being concerned if he’s not.

Prediction: • Ole Miss 34, South Carolina 19

Kentucky at Auburn (-11.5)

Jackson Arnold has not been dumped on the curbside yet, but the writing is on the wall. His last pass in last week’s win over Arkansas was his worst in an Auburn uniform, resulting in a 90-yard pick-6 for the Razorbacks with less than a minute to play in the first half and a cold seat on the bench for Arnold for the rest of the afternoon. Ashton Daniels, a Stanford transfer with 20 career starts for the Cardinal, came off the bench to preside over the Tigers’ 2nd-half comeback in his first meaningful action of the year. He was fine, finishing 6-of-8 passing and accounting for 112 total yards; more important, he didn’t do anything to screw things up while being gifted a flurry of turnovers from a self-destructing Arkansas offense. Five second-half possessions on Daniels’ watch yielded 5 field goals.

Hugh Freeze has been noncommittal about the pecking order against Kentucky, declaring an open competition. Daniels reportedly took first-team reps during Monday’s practice, for what it’s worth. But Freeze has more to consider than just the Tigers’ upcoming games against Kentucky and Vanderbilt — namely, who gives them the best chance to beat Alabama? One of the reasons Auburn pursued Arnold in the first place was his performance (primarily as a runner) in Oklahoma’s 24-3 upset over Bama last November. That was his best game by far at OU after returning to the lineup from a midseason benching. It’s no secret that Freeze’s job could hinge on the Iron Bowl, or that the Tigers always expect to give the Crimson Tide all they can handle in their odd-year trips to The Plains. Unless Daniels is a revelation over the next couple weeks, Auburn fans have probably not seen the last of Arnold, much as many of them may wish they had.

Prediction: Auburn 27, • Kentucky 17

Mississippi State at Arkansas (-4.5)

Look, somebody has to win this game. But at this point, it’s probably going to be because the other side manages to come up with an even more devastating way to lose. 

Arkansas, resigned since September to playing out the string under an interim head coach, has refused to have the good taste to allow Hogs fans to abandon all hope while still failing to deliver an actual win. Over the course of a 6-game skid, the Razorbacks have fumbled away winnable games in crunch time twice; played CFP contenders Tennessee and Texas A&M within a field goal apiece in shootouts; and, most recently, blown a 4th-quarter lead against Auburn in a flurry of turnovers. Excluding a wipeout loss to Notre Dame in Week 4, their other 5 losses have come by a grand total of 22 points.

Mississippi State, owner of a 16-game SEC losing streak, has arguably been even more cursed. Twice, the Bulldogs have put themselves in position to end the skid in upset bids against Tennessee and Texas in Starkville; both times, they watched 4th-quarter leads (including a 17-point cushion against the Longhorns) evaporate in eventual losses in overtime. In between, they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory at Florida, where – trailing by 2 points in the final minute – QB Blake Shapen served up a game-clinching pick within range of the game-winning field goal. As I said before last week’s heartbreaker against Texas, it’s only a matter of time before they beat somebody. But if it’s not the Razorbacks, with Georgia, Missouri and Ole Miss on deck to finish up the year, suddenly the odds of the streak carrying over into 2026 are going to begin looking very grim.

Prediction: • Miss. State 38, Arkansas 35

OFF THIS WEEK: Alabama, LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M

Scoreboard

Week 9 record: 6-1 straight-up | 6-1 vs. spread
Season record: 74-14 straight-up | 37-46 vs. spread

The post Week 10 SEC Primer: Can Tennessee’s Playoff plans survive a reality check from the sinking Sooners? appeared first on Saturday Down South.

1. Ty Simpson, Alabama

Bama fans might feel differently, but for entertainment value, give me the Crimson Tide’s weekly battles against inertia over all those years they spent ritually stuffing opponents into lockers before halftime any day. Saturday’s come-from-behind, 29-22 win at South Carolina was their 3rd straight road win by a touchdown or less, and the first in which they trailed in the 4th quarter. It’s hard not to be reminded of Kalen DeBoer‘s remarkable track record in close games at Washington, especially in 2023, when the Huskies went 8-0 in games decided by single digits en route to the CFP Championship Game. Simpson is not putting it in the air as often as Michael Penix did for that team, but so far he is (narrowly) eclipsing Penix’s 2023 production in terms of touchdown percentage, interception percentage, adjusted yards per attempt and overall efficiency. Penix was the runner-up in that year’s Heisman vote; as long as Bama keeps coming out ahead, Simpson’s own Heisman chances are shaping up nicely.

Last week: 1⬌

2. Gunner Stockton, Georgia

I don’t know to what extent Stockton has captured the hearts and minds of the locals, but statistically he’s been stellar: Second nationally in Total QBR, 3rd in EPA, 5th in success rate. If there’s a disconnect between the stats and the eye test, it’s largely due to the fact that Georgia relies so heavily on screens and flares as an extension of its running game; a little more than 30% of Stockton’s attempts to this point have fallen behind the line of scrimmage, easily the highest rate of any SEC starter. Even Carson Beck and Stetson Bennett IV weren’t asked to play it that safe, and unlike Stockton they were almost always playing with a comfortable lead. But given how well he’s responded with the team’s back against the wall — especially in come-from-behind, shootout wins over Tennessee and Ole Miss — Stockton has been the Bulldogs’ most valuable player over the first two seasons and the main reason they remain on track despite the defense’s descent into mediocrity.

Last week: 3

3. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt

Based strictly on the box score of Vandy’s 17-10 win over Missouri, the offense laid an egg. It was Pavia’s worst outing of the year, by far, resulting in season-lows for total offense, completion percentage, yards per attempt, passer rating, EPA and Total QBR. He finished with a higher number in the INT column (1) than the touchdown column (0) for the first time as a Commodore. The ‘Dores struggled to sustain drives, decisively lost the battle for time of possession, ran just 45 plays, and finished nearly 200 yards below their season average coming in. 

Then again, the fact that it’s now possible to watch Vanderbilt – which, I remind you, is Vanderbilt – knock off a ranked opponent with College GameDay on campus and come away with any quibbles at all pretty much speaks for itself. In a way, there was something just as reassuring about the ‘Dores winning ugly as there is on the days when their star quarterback is striking the Heisman pose, which is at some point a test every team thinking bigger than any given Saturday has to pass. When it was the defense’s turn to keep the season afloat, it held up its end of the bargain.

Anyway, for a serious Playoff contender – which, I remind you, Vandy very much is hitting the November stretch – that line works exactly once before it starts to sound like whistling past the graveyard. Pavia is the main reason the Commodores are in any position to think big in the first place, and they cannot afford for him to turn into a pumpkin with a golden ticket nearly within reach. The most reassuring result in this weekend’s road trip to Texas would be their face-of-the-program QB looking like his best self.

Last week: 2

4. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

Chambliss is the rare quarterback whose production doesn’t plummet under duress. Per Pro Football Focus, his grade on pressured drop-backs (78.4, easily the best in the SEC) is nearly identical to his grade when kept clean (79.9), and he’s averaging exactly 8.9 yards per attempt either way. But he also has not spent much time in the crosshairs, facing pressure on an SEC-low 22.3% of his total attempts on the year. Oklahoma, which came into the weekend tied for the national lead in sacks, barely ruffled on Chambliss’ feathers on Saturday, managing only a dozen pressures, 1 sack, and a penalty for roughing the passer on his 47 drop-backs. If not for Lane Kiffin‘s strange insistence on taking the ball out of Chambliss’ hands in a couple of pivotal situations, the margin in a 34-26 decision at Oklahoma might have been more comfortable.

If anything, the (officially) 6-foot Chambliss seems less bothered by opposing rushers bearing down than by hands in his face. Oklahoma swatted 3 passes at the line; that brought Chambliss’ total to 10 batted passes on the year, tied for most in the FBS with a couple of guys who have significantly more attempts. Subtract just those 10 throws from the ledger, and suddenly his marginal completion percentage makes the leap to respectability.

Last week: 5

5. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M

It’s obviously a stretch to imply any opposing player singlehandedly got an opposing coach fired. But if you’re ranking the culprits in Brian Kelly‘s demise at LSU, Reed’s name ranks high on the list. Last year, he memorably came off the bench in the second half to lead a 31-6 rally in College Station, the first entry in a 3-game LSU skid that put Kelly on the hot seat in the first place. On Saturday, he accounted for 310 yards and 4 touchdowns in another second-half romp that cemented Texas A&M’s status as a contender and LSU’s status as pretender. Kelly was shown the door less than 24 hours later. Reed’s QBR scores in those 2 games — 99.8 last year, 92.4 on Saturday night — are the 2 best single-game performances of his young career.

Last week: 6

6. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee

Vols fans spent 2 years watching a couple guys with military-grade arm strength, Joe Milton III and Nico Iamaleava, fail to move the needle downfield. Enter Aguilar, a former JUCO product with no profile whatsoever as a next-level specimen, and the bombs are raining at an unprecedented rate. Aguilar’s performance in a 56-34 win at Kentucky was one for the books: Per PFF, he was a perfect 7-for-7 on attempts of 20+ air yards, accounting for 287 of his 396 passing yards on the night (72.5%) and 2 of his 3 touchdowns.

For context, no other quarterback this season has attempted more than 5 downfield shots this season season without at least 1 incompletion, and no other quarterback has thrown for as many yards on those shots against an FBS opponent since Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett torched NC State for 321 yards in a losing effort in October 2020.

Aguilar is not throwing deep at an especially high rate, but maybe he should be. For the season, he ranks 3rd nationally in completion percentage (56.8%), 2nd in yards (834) and No. 1 in touchdowns (11) on downfield attempts. That already tops both Milton’s downfield output in 2023 and Iamaleava’s in ’24. It’s easily on pace to top Hendon Hooker’s in 2022, when he finished 5th in the Heisman vote. If he accomplishes nothing else in his lone season as a Vol, at least he can say he let it rip.

Last week: 9

7. Taylen Green, Arkansas

The Razorbacks seemed well on their way to their first conference win in Week 9, taking a 24-16 lead into the 4th quarter against also-winless-in-SEC-play Auburn. Then they seemed to remember what year this is and who they are.

For once, Green can’t pass the buck. His first pick-6 of the season kicked off a flurry of 4 consecutive Arkansas giveaways in the span of 13 plays, including back-to-back INTs on the Hogs’ last 2 offensive snaps in a 33-24 defeat. With that, they fell to the bottom of the SEC for the season in both turnovers (15) and turnover margin (-8), finishing in the red for the 5th time in their ongoing 6-game skid.

Last week: 4

8. John Mateer, Oklahoma

Mateer has been ice-cold throwing downfield since rushing back from an injury to his throwing hand. Per PFF, he was a dreadful 1-for-9 on attempts of 20+ air yards in Oklahoma’s loss to Ole Miss, and was badly off-target on a couple of gotta-have-it downs in the 4th quarter. That was actually a slight improvement over the previous 2 games, in which he was a combined 0-for-5 against Texas and South Carolina. Prior to the injury, Mateer was a respectable 10-for-19 on downfield attempts with 2 touchdowns and no picks in September. Whether that has anything to do with his surgically repaired hand or not, the Sooners badly need him back to looking like the guy who generated early Heisman buzz if they stand a chance of salvaging their Playoff hopes this weekend against Tennessee’s bombs-away attack in Knoxville.

Last week: 7

9. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

There was one silver lining in Carolina’s loss to Alabama: A 54-yard touchdown pass from Sellers to the equally hyped — and equally disappointing — Nyck Harbor, their first downfield connection since the opener against Virginia Tech. Otherwise, it was more of the same. The Gamecocks’ only other touchdown came as the result of a short field in the 4th quarter; in the meantime, Sellers was pressured at a typically high rate, struggled with his accuracy, and committed two killer turnovers. The first, a tip-drill pick-6 on Carolina’s second possession of the game, got the Tide on the board while their offense struggled to get untracked. (That one, at least, you can conceivably blame on some combination of the o-line forcing Sellers to ditch the ball in a panic and his target for deflecting it directly to a Bama defender.) The second, a crucial fumble with the game tied in the final 2 minutes, set up the game-winning touchdown.

That’s 5 losses in the past 6 for a team that opened at No. 13 in the preseason poll, with back-to-back road trips to Ole Miss and Texas A&M on deck. This is about the point on the calendar when South Carolina, and Sellers personally, hit the gas last year en route to a surprising 6-game win streak to close the regular season. At this point, pulling off a repeat would be an even bigger surprise because there is no momentum in Columbia to speak of.

Last week: 11

10. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

I watched the entirety of LSU’s wipeout loss to Texas A&M from the kickoff to the home crowd streaming out of Tiger Stadium in disgust, and even I find it difficult to believe that as late as halftime Nussmeier was holding up just fine. It’s true: LSU scored on its last 2 turns with the ball in the first half and led at the break, 18-14. After halftime, he was buried beneath the A&M pass rush with such frequency and authority that it quickly rendered whatever happened prior to that irrelevant. The Aggies abused a banged-up offensive line, dropping Nussmeier 5 times on the night and his backup, Michael Van Buren, twice more in garbage time. Nussmeier finished with career-lows for passing yards (168), yards per attempt (4.8), and QBR (53.3) and a season-low for efficiency (112.6).

Interim head coach Frank Wilson affirmed this week that Nussmeier remains QB1 heading into an open date ahead of a Week 11 trip to Alabama, a sentence which tells you all you need to know about how the past month has unfolded. At least some NFL scouts are still on board with Nussmeier’s stock for 2026, which hey, it’s something to play for. Locals, on the other hand, are ready to turn the page to Van Buren, a Mississippi State transfer who led a garbage-time touchdown drive against the Aggies and could benefit from a live audition before the new coaching staff arrives in December. Here’s betting the latter winds up looking more prescient than the former.

Last week: 10⬌

11. DJ Lagway, Florida

Lagway was off to a good start against Georgia last year before a hamstring injury ended his afternoon in the 2nd quarter. The injury wasn’t as severe as it initially looked, but it did derail a nascent upset bid; Florida led at the half, 13-6, but went on to lose 34-20 behind a 3rd-string walk-on, Aidan Warner. This year’s edition of the Cocktail Party arrives with even stranger vibes following Billy Napier‘s ouster in Gainesville. But no one has ever doubted the potential of Lagway or his gifted young wideouts to inflict damage when they’re on the same page, and the way Georgia’s secondary has played this season, there could be plenty there to inflict.

Last week: 12

12. Arch Manning, Texas

As battered as Manning has been this season, it was only a matter of time before he took one that left him seeing little cartoon birds orbiting his head. It came on the first play of overtime at Mississippi State, on the heels of a dramatic 4th quarter in which Texas had just rallied from a 17-point deficit to force overtime for the 2nd time in as many weeks against one of the league’s alleged scrubs. At the end of an awkward scramble, Manning left his feet to dive across the first-down line, leaving himself vulnerable to a hit in midair; the subsequent shot bounced his head off the turf, forcing him out of the game and into the concussion protocol. His status for the Longhorns’ must-win date against Vanderbilt — they’re all must-win at this point — is officially TBD.

If he hasn’t been cleared by Saturday, the fate of the ‘Horns’ fading Playoff hopes falls to Matthew Caldwell, a journeyman on his 4th school in 5 years. (The previous 3: Jacksonville State, Gardner-Webb and Troy, where he turned in 3-3 record as a part-time starter in 2024.) In keeping with the old cliché about the popularity of the backup quarterback, Caldwell has generated some minor intrigue among Texas fans based on two throws: A 26-yard strike that kicked off Texas’ last-gasp drive at Florida after Manning lost his helmet on the previous play; and a 10-yard touchdown pass in Starkville after Manning left the game, the eventual winner in a 45-38 escape. Those are Caldwell’s only meaningful attempts of the season. If he gets the call against Vandy, he has a chance to take the Arch Discourse to a whole new level.

Last week: 13

13. Blake Shapen, Mississippi State

Another week, another heart-breaking entry in the Bulldogs’ ongoing SEC losing streak, now at 16 games and counting. Shapen did everything he could have realistically been asked to do against Texas, dropping back 50 times, averaging 9.1 yards per attempt, and throwing 4 touchdown passes without an interception. Those numbers don’t account for sacks (7) or drops (6, per PFF), which only added to the feeling that he was rolling yet another boulder up an even steeper hill, only to watch it roll all the way back down again because his punter inexplicably kicked the ball to Ryan Niblett. Up next on their Sisyphean journey: A trip to Arkansas for a game that, by law and custom, somebody actually has to win.

Last week: 15

14. Cutter Boley, Kentucky

The Wildcats fell behind 28-7 against Tennessee – in part due to a pick-6– and never seriously threatened to close the gap en route to a 56-34 defeat. But they made garbage time more interesting than it had any right to be. Defying his lo-fi rep, Boley let it rip, finishing with a career-high 330 yards and 5 touchdowns on 26-for-35 passing in a rare display of fireworks under Mark Stoops. 

Five touchdowns set a Stoops-era record, give or take an asterisk for empty calories. For a redshirt freshman with some promising traits (read: he’s tall), that ain’t nothing. Assuming Kentucky has a new head coach in December, Boley has a chance between now and then to give him a lot to think about.

Last week: 16

15. Jackson Arnold or Ashton Daniels, Auburn

Arnold has not been dumped on the curbside yet, but the writing is on the wall. His last pass in Saturday’s win over Arkansas was his worst in an Auburn uniform, resulting in a 90-yard pick-6 for the Razorbacks with less than a minute to play in the first half and a cold seat on the bench for Arnold for the rest of the afternoon. Daniels, a Stanford transfer with 20 career starts under his belt for the Cardinal, came off the bench to preside over the Tigers’ second-half comeback in his first meaningful action of the year. He was fine, finishing 6/8 passing and accounting for 112 total yards; more important, he didn’t do anything to screw things up while being gifted a flurry of turnovers from a self-destructing Arkansas offense. Five second-half possessions on Daniels’ watch yielded 5 field goals.

Hugh Freeze was noncommittal about the pecking order for this weekend’s home date against Kentucky, declaring an open competition. Daniels reportedly took first-team reps during Monday’s practice, for what it’s worth. But Freeze has more to consider than just the Tigers’ upcoming games against Kentucky and Vanderbilt — namely, who gives them the best chance to beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl? One reason Auburn pursued Arnold in the first place was his performance (primarily as a runner) in Oklahoma’s 24-3 upset over Bama last November. That was his best game by far at OU after returning to the lineup from a midseason benching. It’s no secret that Freeze’s job could hinge on the Iron Bowl, or that the Tigers always expect to give the Crimson Tide all they can handle in their odd-year trips to the Plains. Unless Daniels is a revelation over the next couple weeks, Auburn fans have probably not seen the last of Arnold, much as many of them may wish they had.

Looking beyond the home stretch, the other variable where Arnold’s status is concerned is 5-star freshman Deuce Knight. The gem of the 2025 recruiting class, Knight has not been a factor this year, his only action to date having come in garbage time of a Week 2 blowout over Ball State. But he certainly will be next year, when his mere presence stands to make Arnold expendable. (Daniels is in his final year of eligibility.) Not that there’s any point in attempting to handicap the situation in ’26 when we don’t even know who’s going to be the head coach. But the odds of Arnold remaining in the fold are looking like an increasingly bad bet.

Last week: 14 | n/a

16. Matt Zollers, Missouri

Beau Pribula‘s season is likely over due to an ankle injury. (A miraculous postseason return has not been ruled out, but that would require Mizzou to make an equally miraculous run without him.) The top backup, Sam Horn, is done for the year after suffering a broken leg in the opener. 

That leaves Zollers, a true freshman who will have 2 weeks to prepare for his first career start against Texas A&M in Week 11. Zollers was a consensus top-100 recruit according to the recruiting sites, a relatively big fish by Mizzou standards, and acquitted himself well enough in the Tigers’ loss at Vanderbilt in his first meaningful action. Earlier in the year, Eli Drinkwitz called Zollers “the future of Missouri football.” When he said that, though, presumably he was not imagining that future arriving with their CFP hopes still hanging by a thread.

Last week: n/a

The post SEC QB Rankings, Week 10: Vanderbilt needs Diego Pavia at his best to turn its Playoff dream into reality appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Kelly goes belly up

Well, that escalated quickly.

Before we get into the grim details of Brian Kelly‘s final hours at LSU, let’s zoom out a little. Not far, just a few weeks. Think back: On Sept. 26, Kelly’s Tigers were 4-0, ranked No. 4 in both major polls, and basking in the momentum of big early-season wins over Clemson and Florida. The defense, the Achilles’ heel of his first 3 seasons, had finally turned a corner. Whatever speculation there was about Kelly’s future was concerned with whether this was the team that would get him over the hump. At that point — again, barely 30 days ago — he was 33-11 as LSU’s head coach, an identical winning percentage to Nick Saban’s in his sanctified run in Baton Rouge from 2000-04.

Exactly one month later, Kelly was toast, kaput, a solitary figure exiting the premises for the last time as the latest obscenely-compensated casualty in what is shaping up as the most merciless (and most expensive, by far) coaching carousel on record. Folks, the calendar has not even turned to November. Already, Kelly is the 11th FBS head coach to walk the plank since the start of the regular season, the 3rd from an SEC school, and the second whose team was ranked in the top 10 as recently as the last full moon. Like James Franklin at Penn State, the collapse on the field unleashed such a cascade of disappointment and negativity at the end that no appeal to Kelly’s track record or monumental buyout could withstand.

Unlike Franklin, who survived 11-plus years in State College and came within a hair’s breadth of the CFP Championship Game in the same calendar year he was canned, Kelly’s tenure at LSU is going to be remembered as cursed from the start. An awkward fit, a culture shock, a cynical experiment — however you want to describe it, it never quite felt right, even before the bottom fell out. Part of the shock of his arrival from Notre Dame in December 2021, beyond the sheer audacity of hiring away the longest-tenured coach in South Bend since Knute Rockne himself, was the idea of this guy assuming the role of cultural lodestar in the state of Louisiana. A Massachusetts native who’d spent his entire career in the Midwest, Kelly introduced himself by feigning a Southern accent and never really recovered.

That’s how it’s going in the books, anyway. Kelly showed up talking about winning national championships but never won anything beyond the SEC West in his first season. His teams cracked the AP top 10 all 4 years, but never came all that close to finishing there. Prior to this season, they were 0-3 in season-openers, putting their Playoff chances on life support right out of the gate; when they finally ended the streak earlier this year, it was at the expense of a Clemson outfit that subsequently crashed and burned in its own right. The defense was such an albatross in 2023 that a historic offense led by Heisman-winning, future franchise quarterback Jayden Daniels was relegated to the ReliaQuest Bowl. A promising campaign in ’24 unraveled in a 3-game losing streak in October and November, in the midst of which the nation’s No. 1 recruit flipped his commitment to another school. The current team, on the heels of LSU’s first 4-0 start since the 2019 national championship team, is in the throes of an identical implosion.

Still, the notion that there was anything inevitable about Saturday night’s 49-25 debacle against Texas A&M is a lot easier to make after the fact than it was before Saturday night. The loss was LSU’s 3rd in its past 4 games, but the previous 2 were competitive, 1-score decisions against ranked opponents (Ole Miss and Vanderbilt), both on the road. In between, the Tigers had handled South Carolina in routine fashion. The locals were not happy, but had not completely abandoned hope. A&M, which was more efficient that dominant en route to a 7-0 start, arrived in Baton Rouge as a mere 2.5-point favorite, in part due to several key LSU injuries. The Tigers led at halftime, 18-14.

The 2nd-half collapse was so thorough that, by the end, hardly anyone who’d witnessed could remember that it had ever been close. The Aggies dominated in all phases, ripping off 35 consecutive points before allowing LSU to tack on a meaningless touchdown in garbage time, not nearly enough to make the final score appear like anything but what it was: A humiliation. Looking outmanned and listless, the Tigers wilted on both sides of the line of scrimmage, allowing A&M’s offense to run at will and its defense to hound QB Garrett Nussmeier into an early exit. The home crowd, disgusted, streamed for the exits in the 4th quarter amid chants of “Fire Kelly,” while boosters in the luxury seats reportedly passed the hat to do just that.

There’s something uniquely clarifying about trudging to the end of a blowout defeat in front of 85,000 emphatically empty seats. It wasn’t the first time LSU fans had abandoned the premises in the midst of a lopsided loss on Kelly’s watch, or for that matter the first time they’d watched a Kelly team get run off the field by Texas A&M in decisive fashion in the second half. They seemed to collectively decide in real time that it would be the last.

If Kelly’s boss, athletic director Scott Woodward, wasn’t convinced by the dismal scene on Saturday night, he was on Sunday afternoon, when he reportedly summoned his head coach for a meeting where “things got very tense,” according to The Athletic. Kelly balked at Woodward’s insistence that he fire offensive coordinator Joe Sloan, per the report, at which point “the situation then escalated, with the head coach pushing back hard against his boss.” A hastily drafted statement made the divorce official.

LSU will play out the string under an interim coach, Frank Wilson, who has 2 stints as a full-time head coach at UT-San Antonio and McNeese State. His first game on the job will be a Week 11 trip to Alabama on the other side of an open date for both teams.

Thus ends the Kelly era in fairly shocking and undeniably ugly fashion, none of its promises fulfilled. Was the project doomed? It doesn’t take much imagination to conjure up a timeline where Jayden Daniels gets the bare minimum of support from the defense he needs to sustain a Playoff run in 2023, or where Daniels doesn’t get knocked out of the game in a shootout loss to Alabama, or where a healthy Harold Perkins Jr. settles on a position and delivers on the massive potential he flashed as a freshman. After beating Bama to claim the division title in 2022, the ’23 team was Kelly’s great missed opportunity — if not to win an elusive championship, then at least to sustain the initial momentum in Year 2 and establish a blueprint for what the finished product might look like.

Then again, it takes just as much imagination to project delusions of grandeur onto teams that plainly stagnated the past 2 seasons as the pressure on Kelly mounted. There was a point this season, just after the cathartic opening-day win at Clemson, when it was possible to believe LSU had turned a corner, or was just about to, which in the end might turn out to be Kelly’s real talent. At Notre Dame, he engineered a long, mostly successful tenure largely by sustaining that sense of anticipation for the better part of a decade without ever getting as close to the promised land as his record implied. (His successor, of course, has already gotten closer than Kelly ever did at a much younger age.) In the SEC, he never really made it look convincing for more than a few weeks at a time, and in the end couldn’t even manage that. Nobody objected much back when Kelly said the move was motivated by his determination to go to a program where he could win it all, which it had become painfully clear was not going to happen in South Bend. LSU’s mistake was betting big that that said more about Notre Dame than it did about the guy who was always just one step away.

QB pains on The Plains

Is Jackson Arnold finished as Auburn’s starting quarterback? Arnold was benched Saturday after serving up a ghastly pick-6 in the Tigers’ trip to Arkansas, one that turned a red-zone scoring opportunity into a 21-10 deficit at the end of the first half.

Arnold has not been especially pick-prone; that was just his 2nd INT of the year on 207 attempts. Ironically, though, it might have been the best thing to happen to Auburn’s offense yet this season — not necessarily because veteran backup Ashton Daniels represented a significant improvement over Arnold, but because he wasn’t asked to be. Instead, with Arnold on ice for the entire second half, Hugh Freeze finally heeded season-long pleas to run the dang ball, resulting in the Tigers’ best output on the ground since the season opener at Baylor: 243 yards on 47 carries (excluding sacks), yielding a 15-minute advantage in time of possession in a 33-24 win that might have at least temporarily saved Freeze’s job. The vast majority of that number came courtesy of RB Jeremiah Cobb, who ground out a career-high 153 yards on 5.5 per carry and helped Auburn score on all 5 2nd-half possessions.

Now, for the caveats. One, all 5 scores came on field goals after the offense stalled out in the red zone. Two, the defense had as much to do with setting up those kicks as the offense after forcing 4 consecutive turnovers on Arkansas’ last 4 offensive possessions, including a go-ahead pick-6 of their own that swung the game permanently for the Tigers. And No. 3, results against Arkansas’ rock-bottom defense aren’t necessarily predictive against the rest of the conference.

All that said, at least it’s something, which for a unit that was badly in need of an identity certainly beats whatever they were trying to accomplish over the course of an 0-4 start in conference play.

Freeze was noncommittal about Arnold’s status going forward, telling reporters after the game he’ll have to evaluate the film before he makes any decisions. He has more to consider than just the Tigers’ upcoming games against Kentucky and Vanderbilt, namely what gives them the best chance to beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl. One of the reasons Auburn pursued Arnold in the first place was his performance (mainly as a runner, for the record) in Oklahoma’s 24-3 upset over Bama last November. That game was by far his best after returning to the lineup from a midseason benching at OU. Time will tell if he’s due for another comeback. Meanwhile, Freeze owes to his team and himself to stick with what’s working until it doesn’t.

CFP Realpolitik

It’s that time of year, when the fog begins to lift and the outlines of the postseason picture begin to come into view. Each week down the home stretch, CFP Realpolitik will size up the Playoff pecking order from a strictly practical perspective.

There is a lot of football left before the field is set on Dec. 7, and a lot of teams still clinging to at least some token shreds of hope. Roughly a third of the FBS ranks still has a chance to make the cut, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, even if that chance is so infinitesimally low it has to be rounded up to one percent. Seven SEC teams have odds to make the Playoff at +450 or shorter, via ESPN Bet. Of the 45 teams with a non-zero shot, though, only 9 have odds above 50%, and the drop-off below that bar is steep.

Plenty to quibble with there — the FPI algorithm appears to be hallucinating a very different version of Texas than the one that’s actually taken the field this season — but as a rough outline of where things stand with 6 Saturdays to go, it’ll do. Without overreacting to potential Playoff bids, a few early conclusions:

Brace for chalk. All those teams in green in the Big Ten and SEC? One of the reasons their outlook is so airtight is the fact that there’s not a single head-to-head meeting between them until their respective conference championship games, which by that point will matter only for seeding. All 7 control their own Playoff fate, and probably enjoy some margin for error, too. FPI gives each of them at least a 70% chance of making the field, which frankly seems cautious considering their remaining schedules. Barring a dramatic turn of events, you may as well go ahead and pencil all seven into the bracket until further notice.

Of course, dramatic turns of events in November in this stupid, chaotic sport are the rule, not the exception, and thank goodness for that. For now, though, what those odds mean for the rest of the board is that 5 of the 7 available at-large tickets are already effectively reserved. The pecking order for the remaining 2 is … uh, complicated. (I am on a deadline here.) For now, I’ll just say this: Vanderbilt is in the driver’s seat coming off back-to-back ranked wins over LSU and Missouri. Not only do the Commodores control their Playoff fate, unlike any almost other team outside of the Green Zone right now, they could conceivably survive a November loss and still have a compelling case to make the cut at 10-2. Everyone else on the bubble is resigned to running the table or wining their conference, which for most of them amounts to the same thing.

On that note, Week 10 is a big one for all of the SEC bubble teams: Texas and Missouri face must-win dates against Vandy and Texas A&M, respectively, with the Longhorns and Tigers both potentially without their starting quarterbacks; and Oklahoma’s trip to Tennessee is a de facto elimination match. Looking ahead, there is a scenario in which the ‘Dores go to Knoxville in the season finale with a golden ticket on the line in the first nationally relevant Tennessee-Vanderbilt game in living memory. But both teams face significant hurdles in the meantime.

The Big 12 is buck wild (again). Last year, the Big 12 race ended in a 4-way tie for first place that required a gordian tiebreaker process to settle which 2 would play for the title. This year’s standings are headed for another knot. As it stands, exactly half the league (the 8 teams listed in the chart) boasts a winning record in conference play; between them, those ei8 ht teams will play head-to-head 8 times in November, all but guaranteeing a mutual bloodbath.

The upshot is that it all but guarantees the Big 12 is doomed again to be a 1-bid league. The most realistic scenario for a 2nd bid is something along the lines of the last remaining undefeated team, BYU, running the table to finish 12-0, then losing the Big 12 Championship Game and settling for an at-large ticket while the champ takes the auto bid. Otherwise, you’ve got to get pretty deep in the weeds to work out another path. And considering that pulling it off would require the Cougars to dispatch fellow contenders Texas Tech (in Lubbock), TCU and Cincinnati (in Cincy) in consecutive weeks, that one is pretty farfetched at this point, too. For now, the situation is strictly championship-or-bust.

Notre Dame needs help. The Irish have a direct route to a 10-2 finish, and both of those blemishes — narrow losses to Miami and Texas A&M in the first 2 games — are about as forgivable as they come. Still, even if they do run the table, it will be at the expense of a relatively lukewarm schedule, which will likely leave them queuing up behind any 10-2 team from the SEC, and potentially the loser of the ACC Championship Game, as well. (Especially if the latter is Miami.) Notre Dame has its own business to take care of, but in the meantime it should be rooting for an outbreak of chaos in both conferences to clear the traffic.

Dark-horse of the Week: Houston. The Cougars went on the road Saturday to knock off the defending Big 12 champ, Arizona State, putting themselves in position to pull off exactly the kind of sneaky strong finish that punched the Sun Devils’ Playoff ticket last year. At 4-1 in Big 12 play (7-1 overall), they’ve already surpassed their conference win total in either of their first 2 season in the league. They also have the benefit of the most manageable November schedule of any of the remaining contenders. Houston will likely be favored in 3 of the last 4, with the lone exception, a toss-up against TCU, coming at home. In a wide-open race, why not the Cougs?

Dude of the Week: Ole Miss edge Princewill Umanmielen

Ole Miss’ pass rush has dropped off significantly following the wholesale departure of last year’s NFL-ready front, including Umanmielen’s older brother Princely, a 3rd-round pick. But Saturday’s 36-24 win at Oklahoma looked like a revival. Princely was beastly against the Sooners, generating 7 QB pressures with a pair of sacks, per PFF, as well as playing his part in tracking down an OU back in the end zone for a safety. On Oklahoma’s next possession following the safety, he snuffed out another drive by corralling the not-easily-corralled John Mateer on 4th down.

Throw in a holding penalty (offsetting) and a game-clinching pressure on OU’s final drive, for good measure. The Rebels could have used a little more of that in their Week 8 loss at Georgia, but if it’s a sign of things to come, it will be worth the wait.

Notebook

1.) Occasionally when a defender makes a play in the backfield you’ll hear the expression, “he could have taken the handoff.” But at one point Saturday, Vanderbilt DB CJ Heard literally took the handoff, knifing into the backfield to disrupt the mesh point on a zone read before backup Mizzou QB Matt Zollers could complete the handoff to RB Jamal Roberts.

Zollers, a true freshman, was solid in relief of injured starter Beau Pribula in a difficult situation on the road after Pribula left the game with an apparent leg injury, but this was potentially season-altering giveaway. Gifted good field position at the Mizzou 44, Vanderbilt’s offense capitalized with a go-ahead touchdown drive that supplied the final margin in a 17-10 win that significantly boosted Vandy’s national title odds while likely cratering Missouri’s.

2.) Texas A&M has no apparent weaknesses right now, but the Aggies’ biggest strength remains getting off the field on 3rd down. LSU converted just 2-for-13 attempts on Saturday night, which is par for the course: In 5 SEC games, opposing offense are just 8-for-55 on 3rd down, a downright bleak 14.6% — best in the nation in conference play.

3.) Ole Miss might want to consider retiring the Austin Simmons package in short-yardage. Understandably, the Rebels want to keep their once and presumably future starting QB involved after ceding the job to Trinidad Chambliss due to injury, but every time Simmons came on the field in Saturday’s win at Oklahoma it was a momentum killer. In the first half, he came on to throw a pair of incomplete passes in a goal-to-go situation, including missing an open tight end on a jump pass into the end zone, forcing Ole Miss to settle for a field goal; in the second half, the Rebels broke out the package again for a 4th-and-1 attempt from their own 24-yard line that ended in disaster when a direct snap to RB Kewan Lacy went awry, resulting a big loss and a short field for the OU offense. Simmons’ 3rd appearance came on a two-point conversion in the 4th quarter, another incomplete pass. There is increasingly less incentive to take the ball out of Chambliss’ hands for any reason.

4.) Oklahoma QB John Mateer is ice-cold throwing downfield since returning from an injury to his throwing hand. Mateer was just 1-for-9 on attempts of 20+ air yards against Ole Miss, which was actually a slight improvement after going 0-for-5 over the previous 2 games since his return. Prior to the injury, he was a very respectable 10-for-19 on downfield attempts with 2 touchdowns and no picks.

5.) We’re running much too long here for a full accounting of Texas’ come-from-behind, overtime win at Mississippi State — the Longhorns’ 2nd OT escape in as many weeks, coming on the heels of a Week 8 nail-biter at Kentucky — but suffice to say that it is well past time that opposing punters stopped punting the ball to Ryan Niblett.

Where would Texas be without this guy? In the span of 3 weeks, he’s returned 2 punts for touchdowns against MSU and Oklahoma and singlehandedly salvaged an anemic offensive outing in Lexington with a pair of long returns that set up 2 of the Longhorns’ 3 scoring “drives” in regulation. Seriously, if you’re my punter and you allow this guy touch the ball, I’m revoking your scholarship.

6.) Last week, I singled out Auburn kicker Austin McPherson for “Dud of the Week” after he missed 3 field goals in an excruciating overtime loss to Missouri. This week, credit where credit is due: McPherson tied a school record by hitting all 6 of his field-goal attempts in the Tigers’ come-from-behind win at Arkansas. The not-so-good news: 5 of those attempts came in the red zone, where Auburn failed to score a touchdown on 6 trips.

The post Monday Down South: Brian Kelly’s sudden ending at LSU was years in the making appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Game of the Week: Texas A&M (-2.5) at LSU

The stakes: At this point on the calendar, any given edition of A&M vs. LSU stands to set the course for the rest of both teams’ seasons. Winner enters November on the Playoff track, as ever; the loser, with their back against the wall. But this particular edition also looms as a potential turning point for both head coaches’ tenures.

For Brian Kelly, there’s no getting around the possibility that Saturday night could turn out to be a point of no return. If that seems a little dramatic for the coach of a team that was ranked No. 4 in the country less than a month ago — not to mention a coach with a $53 million buyout — well, yeah. Have you been paying attention to the college football hot seat lately? These are dramatic times in the profession. And dramatic mood swings have emerged as a recurring theme of Kelly’s tenure.

Consider how differently LSU’s big September wins over Clemson and Florida look now, with Clemson nursing a losing record in ACC play and Florida looking for a new head coach, than they did at the time. It was immediately after the Florida game, a 20-10 decision in which LSU’s offense managed a single touchdown, that Kelly went off on a reporter who dared to lead off the post-game presser following a win with a question about the offense’s struggles. That question has aged a lot better than the tirade it inspired. Not only have the Tigers lost 2 of their past 3 conference games in the meantime at the hands of Ole Miss and (ugh) Vanderbilt; with A&M on tap and a road trip to Alabama on deck, they’re in serious danger of reprising last year’s 3-game losing streak against A&M, Bama and Florida at the same stage of the season. There was open speculation about Kelly’s job security then, too, exacerbated by the fact that in the midst of that skid he lost a commitment from the No. 1 recruit in the country. For a few weeks there, it really felt like the walls were closing in.

A year later, what has changed? LSU pulled out of the skid to win its last 3 in 2024, and opened this season 4-0. Yet here they are again, season on the line as they stare down the barrel of another rapid descent from the top 10 to irrelevance. How many times can this scenario play itself out before a bunch of disgruntled boosters decide that obscene buyout is worth it? There’s only one way for Kelly to avoid finding out: Win on Saturday night.

For Mike Elko, the pressure runs in the opposite direction. Texas A&M is 7-0 for the first time in 30 years, 4-0 in SEC play for the first time since joining the conference, and boasts its best AP ranking (No. 3) at this point in the season or later since 1975. The Aggies passed their first big road test, a come-from-behind, 41-40 win at Notre Dame in Week 3, and haven’t trailed after the first quarter in any other game. If they’re not thinking big already, a primetime win in Baton Rouge would certainly grant them permission.

At the same time, it would also serve as a reminder not to take anything for granted. Last year’s win over LSU, a 38-23 final in College Station punctuated by a 31-point second half, seemed to crack open the possibilities. A&M climbed into the top 10 following the win with visions of a Playoff run and a potential SEC championship in its eye. Instead, the Aggies got blown out of their next game at South Carolina and limped to a 1-4 finish, going out unranked and undistinguished in all-too-familiar fashion for A&M fans who endured similar November fadeouts under Kevin Sumlin and Jimbo Fisher.

All indications so far are that this team is better equipped to seize its opportunity in Elko’s second season than the ’24 team, despite the benefit of an exceedingly friendly conference slate to date. (A&M’s first 4 victims, Auburn, Mississippi State, Florida and Arkansas, are a combined 2-12 in SEC play.) The Aggies are more balanced, significantly more explosive, and, with the emergence of redshirt sophomore QB Marcel Reed, more settled behind center. In a chaotic season across the conference and the country, why not A&M? The pieces are in place, finally, for a serious push. Just how serious, we’re all about to find out together.

When Texas A&M has the ball: Can LSU put the game on Marcel Reed’s arm?

Reed was the unlikely star of last year’s win over LSU, coming off the bench midway through the 3rd quarter to replace a struggling Conner Weigman. The turnaround was instantaneous: In just a few minutes’ worth of action, Reed accounted for 132 total yards, 3 touchdowns (all rushing), and A&M’s longest completion of the night (54 yards). It’s been his job since, and he’s rewarded his coach’s confidence by consistently hitting his marks as both a runner and a passer.

Don’t be fooled by Reed’s reputation as a dual-threat. He is a productive runner, as LSU found out the hard way last year. But he’s improved as a passer, as well, coming in ranked among the SEC leaders for the season in yards per attempt (8.8), touchdowns (15) and passer rating (156.0). The Aggies made a significant investment in upgrading the talent level at wide receiver, bringing in big-ticket transfers Mario Craver (Mississippi State) and KC Concepcion (NC State) via the portal; they currently rank 1-2 in the SEC in receiving yards vs. FBS opponents.

The question mark is how Reed will react under less-than-ideal circumstances. He has operated in mostly balmy conditions so far, benefiting from a veteran o-line, steady ground game, and comfortable leads on the scoreboard. To his credit, on the one occasion Reed has faced adversity, at Notre Dame, he led a pair of 4th-quarter scoring drives to pull off the upset. The backfield will be shorthanded on Saturday night due to a lingering ankle injury to starting running back Le’Veon Moss. There’s no shortage of candidates to keep the chains moving on the ground, but if Reed is good enough to make a habit out of rallying the team from behind on the road, LSU would love to make him prove it.

When LSU has the ball: Can the Tigers protect Garrett Nussmeier?

It was difficult to separate Nussmeier’s struggles in last week’s 31-24 loss at Vanderbilt from the Tigers’ glaring issues up front. The starting left tackle, Tyree Adams, left the game due to injury in the first quarter, in the midst of an eventual touchdown drive; from that point on, LSU only reached the end zone once more over the final 3 quarters, as the result of what can only be described as a fluke play that resulted in a 62-yard touchdown.

Credit to Zavion Thomas for keeping the spark alive, however briefly, but Nussmeier spent most of his afternoon in Nashville running for his life with not much else to show for it. He was under duress on 13 of his 30 drop-backs, per Pro Football Focus, which chalked up the majority of those pressures to Adams’ backup of the left side, DJ Chester, and the regular starter on the right, Weston Davis. But then, he didn’t fare much better when kept clean, averaging a meager 4.5 yards per attempt on an average depth of target of 3.5 yards. He missed on his only attempt of 20+ air yards, settling for a heavy diet of screens that accomplished little. Vandy dominated time of possession in the second half, sending the Tigers home on a pair of meek 4th-quarter punts following back-to-back 3-and-outs to close the game.

Adams has already been ruled out against Texas A&M, and coaches have seen enough from Chester. Instead, they’ll turn to a true freshman, Carius Curne, who will make his 2nd career start and first on the blindside. The guy he’ll be facing on the other side of the line of scrimmage? SEC sack leader and aspiring first-rounder Cashius Howell.

Put it this way, this is a very bad night to have a rushing attack that ranks next-to-last in the SEC.

X-factor: LSU’s run defense

The other significant injury news for the Tigers concerns the resident tackle machine, junior LB Whit Weeks, who is doubtful to play for the second week in a row as he nurses an ankle injury. In his absence, Vanderbilt piled up 239 yards rushing on 5.3 per carry and amassed a 13-minute advantage in time of possession.

Notably, the Commodores’ leading rusher in that game was Heisman hopeful QB Diego Pavia, who ran for 91 yards (excluding sacks) and a pair of touchdowns. Corralling athletic quarterbacks has been a persistent problem for Kelly’s teams over the years, including last year’s loss at A&M after Reed replaced the lethargic Weigman. The Tigers seemed clearly unprepared for his mobility in that game. This time around, they have no excuse, especially with a healthy Harold Perkins Jr. back in the fold.

The verdict …

How much stock do you put in the unholy aura of Saturday night in Tiger Stadium? Death Valley has earned the handle over the years as one of the most hostile venues in America for a visiting team after sundown, but it is not typically the only thing LSU has going for it in a big game. The Tigers are limping into a must-win date with an underachieving quarterback, an unsettled o-line, a suddenly flagging defense missing its best player, and a sinking feeling about the direction of both the season and the program. This is a prove-it date for Texas A&M, too, whose track record with an opportunity to take the next step is not very inspiring. But the Aggies have been steady by comparison, and resilient in the one situation where they’ve had to be in South Bend. Maybe that says more about the friendly conference slate to date than it does about their prospects going forward. Or, maybe, they’re as good as advertised.

Prediction: • Texas A&M 27 | LSU 22

Ole Miss at Oklahoma (-5.5)

The next step in Ole Miss’ ascent from upstart to contender: Winning a big game in hostile territory. The Rebels are 1-6 under Lane Kiffin in true road games vs. ranked opponents, the lone win coming in a 2023 trip to then-No. 24 Tulane. They seemed well on their way to checking that box last week, sprinting to a 35-26 lead at Georgia through 3 quarters; instead, they abruptly turned into pumpkins in the 4th, giving up 17 unanswered points as the Bulldogs tightened their grip like an older sibling reminding his feisty kid brother exactly where he stands. Even with a reasonably competitive loss on Saturday, Ole Miss should still have a gilded path to the Playoff if it takes care of its business against by far the league’s friendliest November lineup (South Carolina, The Citadel and Florida at home, Mississippi State on the road). Still, it would be reassuring to head off the one potential argument that could wreck that assumption before it has a chance to take root.

Oklahoma (6-1) has the opposite problem, schedule-wise: Saturday’s date is the first of 5 straight against currently ranked teams, including back-to-back trips to Tennessee and Alabama on deck. If the Sooners stand any chance of surviving and advancing against that gauntlet, it will be by virtue of the defense, a fully operational Brent Venables unit that leads the SEC in nearly every relevant category except takeaways. Given the current state of affairs at Texas and South Carolina (see below), it’s safe to say Ole Miss’ offense is the best the Sooners have faced, probably by a wide margin. As much as they would love to see John Mateer rekindle some of the spark that had him briefly atop the Heisman odds in September, his 3 interceptions in a wipeout Week 7 loss to the Longhorns in the Red River Rivalry are fresher in mind. His first priority on Saturday: Don’t make things any harder for the D than they already are.

Prediction: Oklahoma 24 | • Ole Miss 20

Missouri at Vanderbilt (-2.5)

Vanderbilt’s offense is not going to set any records for tempo, but what the Commodores lack in urgency they more than make up for in efficiency. The deeper you dive statistically, the better they look. Per efficiency guru Brian Fremeau, the ‘Dores rank No. 1 nationally in points per drive, averaging 4.1 points in non-garbage-time possessions vs. FBS opponents; they also come in 2nd in available yards and possession efficiency, and 5th in yards per play, at 7.5 yards a pop. Per advanced stats site gameonpaper.com, Vandy is among the nation’s best in success rate (2nd) and EPA per play (4th), among a slew of other metrics. It’s converting on 3rd down (54.1%) and scoring touchdowns in the red zone (80.7%) at a steadier clip than any other offense in the SEC.

Anyway, there’s not going to be a test on the vagaries of calculating EPA. If you tuned in to last week’s landmark, 31-24 win over LSU — featuring 4 extended touchdown drives that collectively drained more than 25 minutes off the clock — you don’t need a glossary to get the gist. Diego Pavia is on the cusp of breaking through as a legitimate Heisman candidate, and with a repeat performance against another ranked visitor we can officially welcome Vanderbilt to the November CFP picture.

For its part, Missouri’s Playoff hopes are still very much alive, too, and its offense is still faring almost as well on paper as Vandy’s. But not nearly as well as it was a couple of weeks ago, before a couple of deflating outings against Alabama and Auburn. The Tigers were competitive in a losing effort against Bama, and survived (barely) its first road test of the season last week in double overtime. In the process, though, they’ve struggled to sustain their September success on the ground. The Crimson Tide didn’t exactly stuff the run in Week 7, but did dominate possession, forcing Mizzou into comeback mode for essentially the entire second half. Auburn did stuff the run, limiting workhorse Ahmad Hardy to a season-low 58 yards on just 2.4 per carry. QB Beau Pribula dropped back 47 times, a red flag for a decidedly run-first offense, and threw two interceptions for the second week in a row.

It says something about something that the Tigers managed to escape with all their goals intact. Unfortunately, in this case exactly what it says probably has more to do with Auburn’s eagerness to shoot itself in the foot. If Mizzou wants to look forward to playing meaningful football after the weather turns, it starts with keeping Hardy on track to 1,000 yards rushing and Pribula in his comfort zone.

Prediction: • Vanderbilt 28 | Missouri 23

Alabama (-12.5) at South Carolina

Nothing is going right for South Carolina’s offense right now: The Gamecocks can’t run the ball, can’t protect LaNorris Sellers, can’t convert on 3rd down, and have accrued more negative yardage on sacks than any other FBS team. It’s hard to watch. But the most disappointing piece of the puzzle remains the ongoing inability to get super freak wideout Nyck Harbor involved on a regular basis. After 2 1/2 seasons of waiting patiently for his enormous potential to come to fruition, Carolina fans are glancing nervously at their watches.

It’s not that Harbor has been forgotten; it might actually be less frustrating if he had. Instead, the Gamecocks’ attempts to feed him have produced a couple of highlight-worthy plays (most notably a 64-yard bomb from Sellers in the opener against Virginia Tech) and not much else on anything like a consistent basis. Since the opener, he has just one reception on a throw of 20+ air yards and one touchdown, a playground-style, 4th-and-goal reception that accounted for South Carolina’s only points in last week’s 26-7 loss at Oklahoma. Altogether, Harbor was targeted 6 times against the Sooners, hauling in 4of them … for a grand total of 22 yards.

Again, there are more pressing issues, beginning up front with a thoroughly overmatched offensive line. (Not an especially young one, either.) Sellers’ failure to launch is impossible to separate from the fact that he’s running for his life on literally half of his dropbacks, per PFF, which has ripple effects throughout the offense. At some point, the only way to keep the receivers involved is to toss them a bunch of quick stuff out of desperation. Still, the Gamecocks opened the season with their highest expectations in more than a decade based largely on the idea that a couple of über talents like Sellers and Harbor making the leap would be enough to make up for the lack of playmakers around them. With one or both likely on their way out at year’s end, the time for making good is running out fast.

Prediction: • Alabama 31 | South Carolina 13

Texas (-7.5) at Mississippi State

Texas fans scanning the schedule before the season probably didn’t think twice about this game. At this point, though, if it’s not setting off alarms it should be. The Longhorns have have not traveled well, to put it mildly, losing their first 2 road trips at Ohio State and Florida and barely escaping with their season intact last week in an overtime slog at Kentucky. Arch Manning has looked so lost/broken/secretly injured that Steve Sarkisian fielded questions last week about whether he’d considered sending the preseason Heisman favorite to the bench. The shorthanded, shambolic o-line has arguably been worse. All 4 Texas touchdowns in Columbus and Gainesville came with the ‘Horns already trailing by 2 scores; their only touchdown in Lexington was set up by a punt return inside the UK 10-yard line.
 
Meanwhile, Mississippi State is past ready to put its 2-year, 15-game SEC losing streak to bed. The Bulldogs established some dark-horse cred in a Week 2 upset over Arizona State, which also reinforced Starkville’s reputation as a kind of Bermuda Triangle. In conference play, they’ve already threatened to snap the streak against Tennessee, in an eventual overtime loss in Week 5, and Florida, where the offense was within range of a game-winning field goal in Week 8 when QB Blake Shapen threw a game-ending pick instead. Eventually they’re gonna beat somebody, probably sooner rather than later. The Longhorns, who haven’t faced the cowbells since the first leg of a home-and-home in 1991, should not dismiss the possibility that it could be them.

Prediction: Texas 24 | • Miss. State 19

Tennessee (-7.5) at Kentucky

Tennessee’s pass rush is arguably the strength of the team, but it was a no-show against Alabama, rarely laying a hand on Ty Simpson and failing to record a sack for the first time this year. (The Vols’ 26 sacks going into the game were tied for the FBS lead.) Kentucky’s struggling o-line presents an opportunity to resume destruction. The Wildcats’ starting tackles, Group of 5 transfers Shiyazh Pete (New Mexico State) and Alex Wollschlaeger (Bowling Green), have plainly struggled against SEC edge rushers, allowing a combined 36 QB pressures and 5 sacks on the season, per PFF. Pete, in particular, was repeatedly posterized in Week 8 by Texas’ Collin Simmons, whose 3 sacks went a long way toward keeping the score within reach on an anemic night for the UT offense.

Of course, Simmons is going to be posterizing much higher-compensated tackles than Pete for many years to come. Tennessee doesn’t boast an individual star with his surplus of juice. But between Joshua Josephs, Caleb Herring, Dominic Bailey and Tyre West, there is more than enough to go around as the Vols extend their winning streak over Kentucky to 5.

Prediction: • Tennessee 29 | Kentucky 16

Auburn at Arkansas (-2.5)

Stylistically, these teams could hardly be more different: In one corner, arguably the league’s worst offense; in the other, unquestionably the league’s worst defense. One side built for slugfests, the other for shootouts. In SEC play, the average combined point total for both teams in Auburn games is a meager 34.3 ppg, lowest in the conference. In Arkansas games, it’s 76.0 ppg, easily the highest.

In terms of the trajectories of their respective seasons, though, they’re on nearly identical tracks. Between them, the Tigers and Razorbacks are a combined 0-7 in conference play, with all 7 losses coming at the hands of ranked opponents. (Note that there’s only 1 shared opponent in the mix, Texas A&M.) More important, all 7 have been competitive decisions that were easy to imagine going the other way.

Arkansas’ 3 SEC losses have been decided by a combined 12 points, with an excruciating, 1-point loss at Memphis thrown in for good measure. Auburn’s 4 SEC losses have been decided by 29 points, or roughly a touchdown per game, but have usually felt even closer — the Tigers led in the second half against Oklahoma, Georgia and Missouri, only falling to the Sooners in the final 5 minutes and to Mizzou in double overtime. The combination of untimely turnovers, blown opportunities, and dubious reffing that has brought them to this point could inspire hours of aggrieved podcasting, and has.

The big difference, of course, is that Arkansas has already fired Sam Pittman, emotionally punting on the rest of the season. All the Razorbacks have at stake is Bobby Petrino‘s bid for the full-time job and QB Taylen Green‘s draft stock. Auburn, on the other hand, remains very much in the throes of speculation over the fate of Hugh Freeze, who midway through Year 3 is a dismal 5-15 in SEC play and 1-12 vs. ranked opponents. The silver lining is a manageable schedule over the coming weeks that presents an opportunity for the Tigers to build some momentum heading into the Iron Bowl. Freeze would love to get one last shot at saving his bacon against the Crimson Tide in Jordan-Hare Stadium, where Auburn always gives Bama all it can handle. If he’s going to make it that far, though, he’s got to start stacking some Ws, starting in Fayetteville.

Prediction: • Auburn 31 | Arkansas 26

Scoreboard

Week 8 record: 6-2 straight-up | 2-6 vs. spread
Season record: 68-13 straight-up | 31-45 vs. spread

The post Week 9 SEC Primer: As the walls close in on Brian Kelly, LSU braces for surging Texas A&M appeared first on Saturday Down South.

1. Ty Simpson, Alabama

In another sport, perhaps Simpson’s rise from the ashes to Heisman favorite would serve as a lesson in the perils of overreaction. Since Bama’s opening-day debacle at Florida State, he’s been unflappable, posting a 183.8 passer rating with 16 touchdowns vs. 1 interception against a gauntlet of a schedule – with Saturday’s 37-20 win over Tennessee, the Crimson Tide became the first SEC team ever to beat 4 consecutive ranked opponents in as many weeks. (Others have won 4 straight, but not without an open date in the process.) In college football, of course, we will learn nothing and go right on exercising our inalienable right to overreact to the last thing that happened at all times. But as long as that continues to be highly efficient outings in quality wins, Simpson is golden.

Last week: 1⬌

2. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt

The urge to compare Pavia to his spirit guide, Johnny Manziel, has always felt a little like the program listing Pavia at 6-feet tall: Strictly aspirational, but not by so much that you can’t be convinced to round up in his favor. The connection has never been harder to deny than it was Saturday in a 31-24 win over LSU, which in addition to vaulting Vandy into the AP top 10 for the first time in 78 years (!) produced a couple of the most Manziel-ian highlights of Pavia’s career.

In the same spirit — on the same possession, in fact — Pavia effectively launched his own Heisman campaign a few plays later when he struck the pose at the end of a 21-yard touchdown run that supplied the eventual winning margin. Vanderbilt followed up on Monday with an official website promoting his bid under the hashtag #2Turnt; Heisman oddsmakers and straw polls alike responded by promoting Pavia to the shortlist of viable candidates heading into the last weekend of October. He’ll have another high-profile opportunity this weekend with College GameDay coming to Nashville for what amounts to a Playoff elimination match against Missouri. The Commodores (-2.5) opened as narrow home favorites vs. a top-15 opponent for the second week in a row.

Forget the stats: Those previous 2 sentences alone are worth taking Pavia’s prospects seriously. Why not Diego? If the momentum carries over into November, it’s on the verge of taking on a life of its own.

Last week: 3

3. Gunner Stockton, Georgia

Stockton could not have done much more to raise his stock in Georgia’s high-octane win over Ole Miss. The tit-for-tat pace left him with little margin for error, and he didn’t need it, finishing a near-flawless 26-for-31 passing for 289 yards, 4 touchdowns, and season-highs for passer rating (204.8), Total QBR (96.9) and overall PFF grade (91.0) in a reputation-making performance. On 5 different occasions, Ole Miss scored to take or extend the lead; on all 5 occasions, the Bulldogs responded with a scoring drive, managing to stay close on the Rebels’ heels through 3 quarters before pulling away decisively in the 4th.

Previously I’ve compared Stockton to a slightly bigger version of Stetson Bennett IV (complimentary), but that might be selling his skill-set short. Pressed into a situation in which the offense was literally forced to score every time it touched the ball, he was up to the moment. Stockton was sharp downfield, connecting on 8-of-10 attempts of 10+ air yards; made a difference as a runner, weaving his way to a 22-yard touchdown run in the 2nd quarter; and never put the ball at risk on an afternoon when a turnover in either direction almost certainly would have spelled doom for the team that committed it. His last incomplete pass came just before halftime; in the second half, he finished 12-for-12 while leading 4 consecutive scoring drives to ice the game.

None of that would have possible without the surrounding cast, which also turned in its best game of the season. The o-line, fully intact for the first time this season, kept Stockton clean on all but 7 of his 35 drop-backs, per PFF, and didn’t allow a hit or sack. The receivers, collectively known as a butterfinger-y group, hauled in 4-of-5 contested catch attempts without a drop. Running backs Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens piled up 133 yards on 4.9 per carry. The tight ends finally got involved; Zachariah Branch did Zachariah Branch things after the catch. When all the pieces come together, the Bulldogs still have the makings of a championship attack. And Stockton is emerging as the most important piece, by far.

The question is just how often the defense is going to continue to leave the offense with zero margin for error in a shootout. Georgia has trailed by 2 scores now at some point in 4 of its 5 SEC wins this season, an ongoing trend that began last year, which is a hard way to make a living no matter how many times you manage to pull it off. The Dawgs successfully rallied in the second half against Tennessee, Auburn and Ole Miss, getting just enough defense to take the Vols to overtime in Knoxville and to make the Rebels doubt whether they’d actually have a chance after a lopsided 4th quarter. On the other hand, they didn’t have quite enough juice to pull off the comeback against Alabama despite shutting the Tide out after halftime. Nobody should expect a revival of a vintage UGA defense circa 2022, which the current D is not by a long shot. If it can just give the offense a little breathing room, that would be worth a sigh of relief.

Last week: 4

4. Taylen Green, Arkansas

Green continues to deliver one epic “In a Losing Effort” performance after another. Against Texas A&M, he accounted for 341 yards, 5 touchdowns (3 passing, 2 rushing), and a stellar 95.4 QBR rating in a 45-42 defeat — yet another weekly testament to just how thoroughly his talents are being wasted opposite the Razorbacks’ catastrophic defense.

For some context, consider that there have been 27 instances this season of an SEC quarterback finishing with an individual QBR rating of 85.0 or higher. In those games, said quarterbacks have a record of 23-4. One of those 4 losses was Ole Miss’ shootout loss at Georgia, where the Rebels’ Trinidad Chambliss (88.4) was outdueled by Gunner Stockton (96.9). The other 3 are Arkansas’ 3 conference losses to date:

Look, you’re not going to catch me out here calling Taylen Green the next Patrick Mahomes. Green’s NFL Draft projections at this stage are all over the place. I’m just saying, the last guy who led the nation in total offense on a losing team with a defense fully engulfed in flames, as Green does currently, should serve as a useful reminder to look beyond the standings. Circumstances matter. The Hogs’ season might be hopeless. But with Green, at least they’ve been consistently competitive. Blowout loss to Notre Dame notwithstanding, he has given them a fighting chance on a weekly basis. Without him, they might as well be simming to the end of the season and the arrival of the new coach.

Last week: 2

5. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

Green played brilliantly for 3 quarters against Georgia, leading Ole Miss to five touchdowns on its first 5 offensive possessions. In the 4th, he abruptly turned into a pumpkin. The Rebels entered the final frame leading by 2 scores, 35-26, and needing above all to burn clock. Instead, their last 3 possessions combined spanned less than 2 minutes, resulting in 2 3-and-outs and a brisk turnover on downs to end the game. Their Playoff hopes remain very much intact against a manageable schedule, but lingering doubts about their ability to close against CFP-caliber competition aren’t going away until they actually manage to do it.

Last week: 6

6. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M

Reed turned in his best stat line of the season in a shootout win at Arkansas, but then, every quarterback who faces the Razorbacks tends to come in for his best stat line of the season. Altogether, A&M’s 4 SEC wins to date have come at the expense of opponents with a combined 2-12 record in conference play. This weekend’s trip to LSU is the first of 3 road tests down the stretch (along with November dates at Missouri and Texas) that will determine the Aggies’ course in the postseason.

Last week: 7

7. John Mateer, Oklahoma

The Sooners saw no reason to exceed the speed limit against South Carolina, cruising to a 26-7 win in generally plodding fashion. For his part, Mateer connected on just 2-of-5 attempts of 10+ air yards, per PFF, with an average depth of target of of 4.1 yards and a long gain of just 20. One one hand, that’s a welcome development for an offense that leaned much too heavily on Mateer as a passer and a runner prior to the hand injury that briefly sidelined him at the end of September. On the other, surviving a brutal home stretch against Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri and LSU with Playoff ambitions intact is almost certainly going to require the resident MVP to be at his best.

Last week: 8

8. Beau Pribula, Missouri

Any game in which Mizzou’s run-first offense winds up calling for Pribula to drop back 47 times is one in which something has gone very wrong. In that sense – and only that sense – escaping Auburn with a 23-17 win in double overtime was a relief. Going forward, though, the Tigers are not likely to face many opponents quite as eager to shoot themselves in the foot as Auburn, and they’re certainly not going to win another game averaging 2.1 yards per carry while Pribula throws multiple interceptions. Sustaining Playoff momentum with Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Oklahoma on deck is going to require keeping him in his comfort zone.

Last week: 9

9. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee

Aguilar could have used more help Saturday from his surrounding cast, which combined for 5 drops in the Vols’ loss at Alabama. (A recurring theme: Per PFF, no other FBS quarterback has endured more drops this season than Aguilar, with 22.) But the play that swung the tide against them for good fell squarely on the quarterback and his coaches.

Tennessee, training 16-7, had the ball at Bama’s 1-yard line with no timeouts and 9 seconds left in the half — an obvious passing situation, given that an incomplete pass that left time for one more snap would be vastly preferable to a failed run that ended the half. Call your best 2-point pass! Instead, the offense lined up in an old-school goal-line formation featuring 3 tight ends, a fullback, and zero receivers in a bid to get Bama to overcommit to defending a power run that almost certainly was not in the cards. No dice: Neither the personnel nor the ensuing play-action fake fooled a soul on the defense, and a lazy, badly underthrown pass by Aguilar was ripe for the picking.

The throw itself was worse than the call, but not by much. The look on the Tennessee coaches’ faces said it all: We just blew our best chance to get back in the game on a play that stood no chance.

Last week: 5

10. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

The next 4 entries all follow a theme: Preseason Heisman frontrunner laid low by some murky combination of his own failures and his team’s, with the distinction becoming less relevant by the week.

In Nussmeier’s case, it was difficult to separate his struggles in LSU’s 31-24 loss at Vanderbilt from the Tigers’ glaring issues up front. The starting left tackle, Tyree Adams, left the game due to injury in the first quarter, in the midst of an eventual touchdown drive; from that point on, LSU only reached the end zone once more over the final 3 quarters, as the result of what can only be described as a fluke play that resulted in a 62-yard touchdown.

Credit to Zavion Thomas for keeping the spark alive, however briefly, but Nussmeier spent most of his afternoon in Nashville running for his life with not much else to show for it. He was under duress on 13 of his 30 drop-backs, per PFF, which chalked up the majority of those pressures to Adams’ backup of the left side, DJ Chester, and the regular starter on the right, Weston Davis. But then, he didn’t fare much better when kept clean, averaging a meager 4.5 yards per attempt on an average depth of target of 3.5 yards. He missed on his only attempt of 20+ air yards, settling for a heavy diet of screens that accomplished little. Vandy dominated time of possession in the second half, sending the Tigers home on a pair of meek 4th-quarter punts following back-to-back 3-and-outs to close the game.

Nussmeier’s campaign has not landed with quite the thud as some of the blue-chip names below him here, but for a guy who was widely touted as an aspiring first-rounder coming into the season he is Just a Guy — squarely in the middle of the pack statistically and athletically. He’s also arrived at the point on the calendar when last year’s 6-1 start unraveled in a 3-game losing streak, including a couple of dismal outings against Texas A&M and Alabama. The Aggies and Crimson Tide have improved this time around. Time is running out for Nussmeier to say the same.

Last week: 10⬌

11. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

Has Sellers lived up to the hype? Not even close. Has he had a chance? Not even close. Few QB have been under duress more often than Sellers, who has faced pressure on 47.9% of his drop-backs this season, per PFF. Only 1 other full-time FBS quarterback, UMass’ AJ Hairston, has been pressured at a higher rate. (UMass has not won a game.) The number is a little over 53% in SEC play, easily the highest rate in a conference where talented quarterbacks struggling under pressure are all too common. It doesn’t get any easier from here, with Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M on deck. The point is rapidly approaching at which the question shifts from whether he’ll survive the rest of the year to whether he has any interest in coming back in 2026.

Last week: 12

12. DJ Lagway, Florida

The grim march of the Billy Napier era in Gainesville is over. Now comes the fallout. At the top of the list of questions for the next head coach: Is Lagway’s potential still worth whatever it’s going to cost to keep him in the fold?

For his part, Lagway doesn’t seem to be thinking that far ahead, telling reporters “I’m a Florida Gator, man” in response to questions about a potential transfer. He did not add “for the next 6 weeks, anyway,” but that part might as well be implied. Frankly, the incoming administration might need some convincing. As it stands, Lagway ranks dead last among SEC starters in interception rate, adjusted yards per attempt and Total QBR, and next-to-last in efficiency. After letting it rip to great fanfare as a freshman, he’s been among the least adventurous and least accurate throwing downfield in Year 2, with eight completions on 25 attempts of 20+ air yards. He’s had minimal impact as a runner. Outside of the Gators’ 29-21 upset over Texas in Week 5, he’s yet to move the needle in any other game.

The other side of the coin, of course, is that Lagway is still just a sophomore who has been thrust into the position of bailing out a sinking ship from pretty much the moment he set foot on campus. The only break he has enjoyed from the toxic storm of speculation surrounding his head coach’s status came at the end of last season, after the university declared Napier’s job was safe just to get people to shut up about it; those few weeks are the best of Lagway’s career to date, resulting in the 4-game win streak that fueled optimism entering 2025. False hope, in the end. But to the extent that the last 5 games of this season are an audition for his future – whether it’s at Florida or elsewhere – maybe having the weight of the hot seat removed from his shoulders will turn out again to be exactly what he needed.

Last week: 13

13. Arch Manning, Texas

Another week, another inscrutable performance from Manning, who cannot even get out of a routine road trip to Kentucky without alerting the Bust Police to his presence. Coming off his most reassuring outing of the year against Oklahoma, Manning regressed to struggle mode in a close shave in Lexington, completing just 12-of-27 passes for 4.9 yards per attempt on a rock-bottom night for the Texas offense as a whole. The Longhorns finished with their fewest yards (179) and first downs (8) in more than a decade, and only reached the end zone as a result of a punt return that set up the offense at the Wildcats 5-yard line. (Another big return into UK territory set up a go-ahead field goal on Texas’ final possession of regulation.) Manning turned in season lows for passer rating (85.5) and Total QBR (25.0) in what was very nearly a season-derailing disaster.

As always, it is not all about Arch. His offensive line remains a safety hazard, particularly true freshman guard Nick Brooks, who continues to look like … well, like a true freshman thrust unexpectedly into the starting lineup in SEC play. PFF charged Brooks with 6 pressures allowed against Kentucky, including all 3 of the Wildcats’ sacks. That brings him up to an alarming 19 pressures allowed in the past 3 games. But let’s spare the rookie the brunt for the entire unit. PFF also cited center Connor Robertson, a career backup filling in due to injury, with 5 pressures, and regular tackles Brandon Baker and Trevor Goosby with 3 apiece — red flags across the board. (The only Texas lineman who wasn’t charged with a pressure on Saturday was senior DJ Campbell, who remains a pillar at right guard while the rest of the front threatens to collapse around him.) Manning never established a rhythm under constant duress, and the inability (or unwillingness) to establish the ground game didn’t help.

But whatever plays were there to be made, Manning was rarely making them. He was 8-for-16 for 70 yards on clean drop-backs, including a heavy diet of screens that fell behind the line of scrimmage; he was just 6-of-16 throwing beyond the line, where he didn’t bother to challenge Kentucky downfield and continued to routinely miss open receivers. And with a number like 6-for-16, there’s no need to cherry-pick to get the point across: Accuracy is plainly a recurring issue.

In his previous road trips, losses at Ohio State and Florida, Manning managed to offset some of his erratic tendencies and salvage some respectability on the stat sheet by connecting on a handful of downfield shots in both games. There wasn’t so much as a glimpse of that aspect of his game on Saturday night, for whatever reason. The defense was holding up its end up of the bargain, his protection wasn’t, and (by the way) Kentucky succeeded in its effort to shorten the game by racking up a nearly 2-to-1 advantage in time of possession in regulation. Texas ran just 55 offensive plays, including setting up the game-winning field goal in overtime after the defense stuffed Kentucky on 3 straight plays from the 1-yard line on the Wildcats’ turn with the ball. By that point, though, ‘Horns fans had seen enough to know they got away with one in a game they were favored to win comfortably, and that if the situation doesn’t improve ASAP it might be the last.

Last week: 11

14. Jackson Arnold, Auburn

This weekend’s trip to Arkansas is a collision of easily resisted force vs. imminently movable object. Auburn’s offense ranks last or next-to-last in SEC play in virtually every category, including total offense, scoring offense, yards per play, pass efficiency, 3rd-down conversions and sacks allowed. Arkansas’ defense is the league’s worst by all of those measures and many more, allowing a ghastly 41.6 points per game in the Hogs’ 5 losses. If Arnold can’t get the plane off the ground in Fayetteville, it ain’t happening with him at the controls – or, most likely, with Hugh Freeze on the sideline.

Last week: 14⬌

15. Blake Shapen, Mississippi State

All things considered, Shapen had a perfectly cromulent afternoon in the Bulldogs’ 23-21 loss at Florida right up until the end. But this is one of those cases where focusing on anything other than the end is like asking, “other than that. Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?”

How many points can a single play accrue on the Calamity Scale? Game-ending pick within range of the game-winning field goal? Jackpot. Coming from a 6th-year senior in his 34th career start? Even better (worse). Bonus demerits for a direct hit to the waiting mitts of a 349-pound defensive tackle. And by extending the Bulldogs’ SEC losing streak to 15 games and counting, it achieved a near-perfect score of negativity. Here was a play so bad the other team responded by firing its head coach just hours after the victory. The only points left on the board were by virtue of not coming against a rival. Fingers crossed for the Egg Bowl.

Last week: 15⬌

16. Cutter Boley, Kentucky

On paper, Kentucky’s torture-drip game plan against Texas was a success. Boley finished with career-highs for completion percentage (79.5%), total offense (303 yards) and Total QBR (80.8); as a team, the Wildcats racked up a season-high 26 first downs and a nearly 2-to-1 surplus in time of possession. On the scoreboard? Thirteen points in a losing effort despite a dominant outing by the defense. Two giveaways, 3 empty trips inside the UT 30-yard line, and a couple of killer breakdowns by the punt coverage unit tend to have that effect.

Last week: 16⬌

The post SEC QB Rankings, Week 9: Taylen Green, legend of the losing effort  appeared first on Saturday Down South.

The bell tolls for Billy

Certain coaches linger on the hot seat so long that finally pulling plug becomes an act of mercy, and few have lingered longer than Billy Napier. Florida put the Napier era out of its misery on Sunday, firing him less than 24 hours after a tenuous, 23-21 win over Mississippi State, and a little more than a year after the first obituaries to his tenure. Not much has changed in the meantime except the particulars.

Altogether, Napier’s Gators finished 22-23 overall, 12-16 in SEC play, 4-16 vs. ranked opponents, and 2-8 vs. annual rivals Georgia, LSU and Florida State. They never spent more than 3 consecutive weeks in the polls, or moved the needle in any discernible way except as spoilers. His swan song on Saturday — again, a conference win in which Florida led for the final 3 quarters — was punctuated by chants of “FI-RE BIL-LY” and a chorus of boos as he jogged off the field for the last time.

In that sense, Napier’s run in Gainesville was arguably an even bigger flop than the decade-long succession of flops that preceded it. The previous 3 guys in the job before him, Will Muschamp (2011-14), Jim McElwain (2015-17), and Dan Mullen (2018-21), also failed to make it to the end of their 4th season before their respective administrations unraveled. But at least they all managed go out with winning records. At least there were moments in each of their tenures, however fleeting, when Florida seemed relevant. The Gators won 11 games under Muschamp in 2012; played in back-to-back SEC Championship Games under McElwain in 2015 and ’16; and spent most of Mullen’s first 3 seasons ranked in the AP top 10 before the bottom fell out in Year 4. If the 12-team Playoff had existed in those years, they would have made the cut a handful of times as an at-large. Under Napier, the project never really got off the ground, topping out with an 8-5 record last year as the result of an improbable 4-game win streak to end the year. Aside from a round of residual (and quickly deflated) preseason hype coming into this season, it never came close.

Zoom out, though, and in the long run the Napier era is merely a continuation of the extended period of frustration since the literal and figurative collapse of the Urban Meyer regime. In many ways it was all too familiar. Like McElwain, Napier arrived in December 2022 as a former Nick Saban assistant with little profile of his own, the Saban connection counting for at least as much as far as Florida was concerned as his brief but successful run as head coach at UL-Lafayette. Like Mullen, he was often dismissed as a second-rate recruiter whose developmental mindset was better suited to an off-brand underdog than to a program that expects to compete with the Bamas, LSUs and Georgias of the world for 5-star specimens. And like Muschamp, his teams were characterized by turgid offenses, combustible defenses, and stupid penalties at conspicuous moments. (Come to think of it, that was occasionally a Mullen thing, too.) The Gators had their moments on Napier’s watch; unlike his doomed predecessors, they also had a couple of potentially transformative talents at quarterback, Anthony Richardson and DJ Lagway, the crown jewel of Napier’s 3 full recruiting classes. But they never had anything resembling a coherent identity.

Therein lies the challenge for whoever comes next: What is Florida football? It’s been awhile since there was a satisfying answer to that question. For a long time, Florida perennially checked in at or near the top of the list of “Best Jobs in College Football” as a result of its resources, a championship track record under multiple coaches, and privileged geography in recruiting. In the NIL/portal era, none of those advantages really holds true anymore, and frankly hasn’t for a while.

After watching 4 consecutive administrations crash and burn over a span of 15 years, it’s past time to ask whether the malaise says as much about the job itself as it does the overwhelmed busts who have held it. For one thing, the resource gap between the sport’s Haves and Have Nots has narrowed significantly since the Gators’ most recent hey day — at least within the power conferences — and is only going to continue to shrink as a result of revenue sharing and an accompanying cap on player salaries. If anything, Florida has been notoriously slower to adapt to the realities of the arms race than the programs it considers its peers. Meanwhile, as the cycle churns on, Gainesville looks less and less like a place where an ambitious coach can win championships and more like a place where coaches go to be buried under outdated expectations. After all, just about every major program east of the Mississippi has made inroads in Florida recruiting, and no prospect with options is making his decision anymore based on which school is within the shortest driving distance. Most of the highest-rated players in Florida have been opting to leave the state for years; the Gators rarely sign more than 1 or 2 of the top 10.

Of course, that could always change with an infusion of NIL money. Based on the recruiting sites, Florida’s 2024 and ’25 classes were its best since the pandemic, with last year’s class in particular coming together only after athletic director Scott Stricklin convinced boosters to invest the money they were prepared to put toward buying out Napier’s contract toward shoring up efforts on the trail instead. But then, these days the same thing can be said for almost anywhere else, too. Suddenly, Indiana or Texas Tech can now go out and buy itself a Playoff-caliber roster, and still afford to pay a Playoff-caliber coach an insane amount of money to stick around to build the next one. So too, for that matter, can Ole Miss, where Lane Kiffin — the candidate who has loomed at the top of Florida’s wish list since speculation began over Napier’s future last year — has built a program that has proven it can compete at a high level and reload on a regular basis even following massive attrition.

Is there anything a coach like Kiffin — or Eli Driknwitz, or Rhett Lashlee, or whatever name you want to toss in the mix — can accomplish at Florida that he can’t at a place like Ole Miss, or Missouri, or SMU, where he’s already done most of the heavy lifting and enjoys some job security? As recently as a couple years ago, that would have been a no-brainer, a question not even worth asking. Everybody knew the 12 or 15 or so jobs in which it was always possible to win big, and Florida was 1 of them, regardless of how far the Gators might have fallen at any given point in time.

Today? Who knows Kiffin or Drinkwitz or any other would-be Florida target is thinking, but the landscape is considerably flatter. Horizons are expanding and ceilings are being raised across the country. In any given year now, there are likely to be a dozen teams in the SEC thinking big.

Presumably Florida is always going to do what it takes to be among them. But if it’s going to re-establish itself as a destination, rather than just another aspiring outfit whose trophy case is increasingly irrelevant to a generation of players who couldn’t even begin to tell you what the letters “BCS” stand for, it cannot afford to keep hitting reset every 3 1/2 years. The next guy needs to be in it for the long haul.

Bottom’s up

If it seems like every other game this year is a nail-biter, it’s not just in your head: Per Associated Press reporter Josh Dubow, the average margin of victory in SEC games so far this season is just 10 points, down nearly a full touchdown per game compared to conference play from 2010-23. In fact, if it holds up, Dubow reports that 10 ppg is on pace to be the narrowest margin of victory in any conference since at least the turn of the century. From top to bottom, the league is as competitive week-in, week-out as it has been in a long time.

That’s obvious enough at the top, where the days of Alabama and/or Georgia cruising through the regular season without having to so much as tap their brakes are over. Not that the Tide and Dawgs can’t still go all the way. But the path so far has been anything but smooth or inevitable — especially for Georgia, which has trailed in the second half in 3 of its 4 conference wins. Saturday’s wild, 43-35 marathon against Ole Miss featured 6 lead changes and a 17-0 4th-quarter rally by the Bulldogs to erase a 9-point deficit at the end of the 3rd. Par for the course these days. Altogether, 10 SEC teams are ranked in the updated AP poll, 8 of whom still have at least a 30% chance of making the Playoff according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. The race for those tickets over the next 6 weeks is going to be a battle of attrition.

But I would argue the case for parity across the conference is just as compelling at the bottom, if not more so. For now, anyway, regression to the mean in the portal/NIL era is working in both directions. Consider the 4 teams that have yet to win a conference game: Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky and Mississippi State, which are a combined 0-14 in SEC play. Depressing stuff. Contrary to the standings, though, the actual gap between the bottom tier and the broad middle class on the field has been razor-thin. Nine of those 14 losses have come by a touchdown or less, including down-to-the-wire efforts by all 4 teams on Saturday.

Auburn remained snake-bitten, missing 3 field goals in a double–overtime loss against Missouri. Kentucky, which began the day as the conference’s only double-digit underdog, stuffed Texas’ entire offense into a locker only to lose a 16-13 heartbreaker in overtime. Mississippi State was within range of a game-winning field goal at Florida before serving up a gut-wrenching interception to clinch a 2-point loss in The Swamp. And Arkansas — poor, exhausted Arkansas — hung 527 yards and 42 points on undefeated Texas A&M in yet another shootout loss in Fayetteville, the Razorbacks’ 4th loss already with at least 31 points in defeat. For the year, the Hogs rank No. 2 nationally in total offense vs. FBS opponents at 507.3 yards per game, with 5 consecutive losses in said games.

That’s not to pass out moral victories when actual victory was there for the taking in every one of those games. Arkansas has already fired its coach, Auburn and Kentucky are on the verge of following suit, and Mississippi State is still gritting its teeth over a 15-game SEC losing streak spanning 2 calendar years; these are all teams absolutely going through it. It’s just to make the point that when the entire bottom quartile of the league is capable of pushing Playoff hopefuls to the brink, it’s no wonder every Saturday feels like a dog fight. If we learned anything from last year’s chaotic stretch run, it’s just how much can change in 6 weeks. Weird stuff is in the air. Actually, as thin as the margins are right now, it might be more surprising if things don’t get a little weird. Put it this way: Among the would-be SEC title contenders, is there an outfit you really trust to not get its season randomly blown off the tracks by an underdog rallying under an interim head coach? If and when it happens, they can’t say they weren’t warned.

This week in Arch: U-G-L-Y

Another week, another inscrutable performance from Arch Manning, who cannot even get out of a routine road trip to Kentucky without alerting the Bust Police to his presence. Coming off his most reassuring outing of the year against Oklahoma, Manning regressed to struggle mode in Lexington, completing just 12-of-27 passes for 4.9 yards per attempt on a rock-bottom night for the Texas offense as a whole. The Longhorns finished with their fewest yards (179) and first downs (8) in more than a decade, and only reached the end zone as a result of a punt return that set up the offense at the Wildcats’ 5-yard line. (Another big return into UK territory set up a go-ahead field goal on Texas’ final possession of regulation.) Manning turned in season-lows for passer rating (85.5) and Total QBR (25.0) in what was very nearly a season-derailing disaster.

As always, it is not all about Arch. His offensive line remains a safety hazard, particularly true freshman guard Nick Brooks, who continues to look like … well, like a true freshman thrust unexpectedly into the starting lineup in SEC play. Pro Football Focus charged Brooks with 6 pressures allowed against Kentucky, including all 3 of the Wildcats’ sacks. That brings him up to an alarming 19 pressures allowed in the past 3 games. But let’s spare the rookie the brunt for the entire unit. PFF also cited center Connor Robertson, a career backup filling in due to injury, with 5 pressures, and regular tackles Brandon Baker and Trevor Goosby with 3 apiece — red flags across the board. (The only Texas lineman who wasn’t charged with a pressure on Saturday was senior DJ Campbell, who remains a pillar at right guard while the rest of the front threatens to collapse around him.) Manning never established a rhythm under constant duress, and the inability (or unwillingness) to establish the ground game didn’t help.

But whatever plays were there to be made, Manning was rarely making them. He was 8-for-16 for 70 yards on clean drop-backs, including a heavy diet of screens that fell behind the line of scrimmage; he was just 6-for-16 throwing beyond the line, where he didn’t bother to challenge Kentucky downfield and continued to routinely miss open receivers. And with a number like 6-for-16, there’s no need to cherry-pick to get the point across: Accuracy is plainly a recurring issue.

In his previous road trips, losses at Ohio State and Florida, Manning managed to offset some of his erratic tendencies and salvage some respectability on the stat sheet by connecting on a handful of downfield shots in both games. There wasn’t so much as a glimpse of that aspect of his game on Saturday night, for whatever reason. The defense was holding up its end up of the bargain, his protection wasn’t, and (by the way) Kentucky succeeded in its effort to shorten the game by racking up a nearly 2-to-1 advantage in time of possession in regulation. Texas ran just 55 offensive plays, including setting up the game-winning field goal in overtime after the defense stuffed Kentucky on 3 straight plays from the 1-yard line on the Wildcats’ turn with the ball. By that point, though, ‘Horns fans had seen enough to know they got away with one in a game they were favored to win comfortably, and that if the situation doesn’t improve ASAP it might be the last.

Stone-Cold Gunner

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Gunner Stockton could not have done much more to raise his stock in Georgia’s high-octane win over Ole Miss. The tit-for-tat pace left him with little margin for error, and he didn’t need it, finishing a near-flawless 26/31 passing for 289 yards, 4 touchdowns, and season-highs for passer rating (204.8), Total QBR (96.9) and overall PFF grade (91.0) in a reputation-making performance. His Heisman odds shortened, too. On 5 different occasions, Ole Miss scored to take or extend the lead; on all 5 occasions, the Bulldogs responded with a scoring drive of their own, managing to stay close on the Rebels’ heels through 3 quarters before pulling away decisively in the 4th.

Previously I’ve compared Stockton to a slightly bigger version of Stetson Bennett IV (complimentary), but that might be selling his skill set short. Pressed into a situation in which the offense was literally forced to score every time it touched the ball, he was up to the moment. Stockton was sharp downfield, connecting on 8-of-10 attempts of 10+ air yards; made a difference as a runner, weaving his way to a 22-yard touchdown run in the 2nd quarter; and never put the ball at risk on an afternoon when a turnover in either direction almost certainly would have spelled doom for the team that committed it. His last incomplete pass came just before halftime; in the second half, he finished 12-for-12 while leading 4 consecutive scoring drives to ice the game.

None of that would have possible without the surrounding cast, which also turned in its best game of the season. The o-line, fully intact for the first time this season, kept Stockton clean on all but 7 of his 35 drop-backs, per PFF, and didn’t allow a hit or sack. The receivers, collectively known as a butterfinger-y group, hauled in 4-of-5 contested catch attempts without a drop. Running backs Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens piled up 133 yards on 4.9 per carry. The tight ends finally got involved; Zachariah Branch did Dillon Bell things after the catch. When all the pieces come together, the Bulldogs still have the makings of a championship attack. And Stockton is emerging as the most important piece, by far.

The question is just how often the defense is going to continue to leave the offense with zero margin for error in a shootout. Georgia has trailed by 2 scores now at some point in 4 of its 5 SEC wins this season, an ongoing trend that started last year, which is a hard way to make a living no matter how many times you manage to pull it off. The Dawgs successfully rallied in the second half against Tennessee, Auburn and Ole Miss, getting just enough defense to take the Vols to overtime in Knoxville and to make the Rebels doubt whether they’d actually have a chance after a lopsided 4th quarter. On the other hand, they didn’t have quite enough juice to pull off the comeback against Alabama despite shutting the Tide out after halftime. Nobody should expect a revival of a vintage UGA defense circa 2022, which the current D is not by a long shot. If it can just give the offense a little breathing room, that would be worth a sigh of relief.

Dude of the Week: Alabama Edge Yhonzae Pierre

The Tide brought Pierre along slowly at first coming off a nagging preseason injury, but it didn’t take him long to play his way onto breakout watch over the first half of the season, and Bama’s 37-20 win over Tennessee was the moment the Tide have been waiting for. Pierre was borderline unblockable against the Vols: His 6 QB pressures yielded 2 sacks, as well as the most physically dominant rep of the evening — a bull rush that relocated the opposing right tackle directly into the lap of QB Joey Aguilar, forcing Aguilar to commit a panicked intentional grounding penalty in his own end zone.

The offense scored on the ensuing possession to extend the lead to 16-7 and never looked back.

Pierre has a long way to go before he’s mentioned in the same breath as some of the Bama edge rushers, but he’s off to a good start since breaking into the starting lineup following the Tide’s open date in Week 4. In 4 games since, he has generated 16 pressures and 2 forced fumbles (both against Missouri) in the past 3 games. A former 5-star, the shy is the limit.

Dud of the Week: Auburn’s Kicking Game

Auburn’s overtime loss to Missouri was littered with missed opportunities, from dropped passes to turnovers. But for a team that was counting on veteran kicker Alex McPherson to solve its field-goal woes, McPherson’s 3 misses against Mizzou — 2 from inside of 40 yards, the 3rd falling well short from 50 yards out in overtime — were especially deflating. McPherson is still working his way back to 100% from the intestinal issue that caused him to miss nearly all of last season, when the Tigers finished a dreadful 11-for-20 on field-goal attempts in his absence.

Notebook

1.) If you’re a coach on the hot seat, beating Mississippi State is the last straw. Billy Napier is the 3rd head coach in the past 5 years to get the axe immediately following a win over the Bulldogs, following Gus Malzahn and Jimbo Fisher.

2.) Alabama fans got their wish when the the Tide opened the game against Tennessee with 5-star freshman Michael Carroll in the starting lineup at right tackle. He didn’t last long: After allowing a couple of pressures, he was yanked for the guy he replaced, Wilkin Formby, who ultimately played 39 snaps to Carroll’s 25. Bama is still giving significant reps to backups at both guard spots, as well.

3.) Alabama’s game-changing pick-6at the end of the first half was play-calling malpractice by Tennessee. The Vols had the ball at Bama’s 1-yard line with no timeouts and 9 seconds left in the half — an obvious passing situation, given that an incomplete pass that left time for one more snap would be vastly preferable to a failed run that ended the half. Call your best 2-point pass! Instead, the offense lined up in an old-school goal-line formation featuring 3 tight ends, a fullback and zero receivers in a bid to get Bama to overcommit to defending a power run that almost certainly was not in the cards. No dice: Neither the personnel nor the ensuing play-action fake fooled a soul on the defense, and a lazy, badly underthrown pass by Aguilar was ripe for the picking by Zabien Brown.

The throw itself was worse than the call, but not by much. The look on the Tennessee coaches’ faces said it all: We just blew our best chance to get back in the game on a play that stood no chance.

4.) Arkansas’ season in a nutshell: Trailing 38-35 against Texas A&M, the Razorbacks lined up to stop a crucial 4th-and-1 attempt by the A&M offense from its own 34-yard line in the 4th quarter. Initially, it looked like they’d succeeded in penetrating the backfield and stuffing RB EJ Smith for a big loss — except that the defender in the best position to make the play, Justus Boone, apparently lost track of which Aggie had the ball and, in the confusion, attempted to wrap up one of Smith’s lead blockers instead. Smith, who’d been knocked off balance a full 4 yards behind the line to gain, managed to reset his feet and plunge ahead for the conversion. A&M went on to score (of course), extending its cushion to 45-35 en route to an eventual 45-42 win.

5.) I don’t have the bandwidth here to take on the full scope of hot-seat speculation surrounding virtually every coach who lost this weekend, but if Shane Beamer wasn’t thinking seriously about the possibility of filling the vacancy at his alma mater, Virginia Tech, maybe he should be. He’s fond of calling South Carolina his “dream job,” but after Saturday’s 26-7 flop against Oklahoma the Gamecocks are 1-4 in SEC play with no light at the end of the tunnel. Beamer is not generally considered a candidate for the chopping block in 2025. At the rate it’s going, though, that assumption changes with every loss; either way, he’ll certainly be feeling the heat if he returns in ’26. A reset in Blacksburg might be the best-case scenario for all parties. Just a thought.

Moment of Zen of the Week

The post Monday Down South: Billy Napier is the latest Florida coach to exit early. Will the Gators ever get it right? appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Game of the Week: Ole Miss at Georgia (-7.5)

The stakes: Set aside Georgia’s 5-1 record and top-10 ranking for just a second. Are the Bulldogs OK?

By local standards, they’re on an extended run of some seriously uninspiring football. And not just in 2025: Since last year’s opener, a routine, 34-3 romp over Clemson that followed the same script as dozens of identical Georgia romps before it, nearly every game vs. a Power 4 opponent has been the kind of competitive, 4-quarter battle that Kirby Smart‘s best teams would have considered beneath them. Chalk it up to the leveling effects of NIL, the portal, or simply old-fashioned “rebuilding,” but that lopsided win over the Tigers was arguably the last complete game UGA has played against a real opponent.

Let’s scroll back through the last calendar year. Down the stretch, the ’24 Dawgs needed a 4th-quarter rally to pull away from a lame-duck version of Florida employing a third-string walk-on quarterback; got waxed in eye-opening fashion at Ole Miss; survived a marathon upset bid from Georgia Tech in which they never led in regulation; went to overtime again in a narrow win over Texas in the SEC Championship Game; and were bounced decisively by Notre Dame in the CFP quarterfinals.

The first half of this season has been an extension of the past one. Already, Georgia has faced double-digit deficits in 3 of its first 4 SEC games, turning sluggish starts into an unsettling routine. The lone defeat, a 24-21 decision against Alabama, marked the end of a 33-game home winning streak in Athens dating to 2019. Come-from-behind wins at Tennessee and Auburn turned on a couple of crucial, essentially random moments — a missed Tennessee field goal at the end of regulation in Knoxville; a controversial goal-line fumble that prevented Auburn from extending a 10-0 lead to 17-0 just before halftime — that saved the Bulldogs’ bacon in both games. If either play goes the other way (much less both), the feeling around this team would be not just malaise, but full-blown panic.

Then again, take a breath, and here they are: 5-1, top-10 ranking, every major goal still intact, with the sport’s most talented roster and all 3 of their toughest remaining tests against Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia Tech (undefeated Georgia Tech!) coming at home. Only a program with a recent track record as decorated as Georgia’s could imagine that scenario as some kind of slowly unfolding crisis, especially in a dog-eat-dog era defined by rising parity. A win on Saturday would put the Bulldogs back in the driver’s seat for, at minimum, an opportunity to host a first-round CFP game. A loss would be another severe blow to their margin for error in November, but not a death knell. As thin as the margins are in this conference right now, that is just life as a heavy hitter.

Relatively speaking, 6-0 Ole Miss is too blessed to be stressed ahead of its date with Georgia. This was supposed to be something like a rebuilding year in Oxford after last year’s 8-figure investment in a Playoff run went belly-up in excruciating fashion. The Rebels lost a school-record 8 NFL Draft picks, including a first-round quarterback and the entire starting defensive line, and were not nearly as conspicuous in the offseason transfer market. They started out squarely in the “whatever” range in the preseason AP poll, at No. 21. Week-by-week, though, they’ve hit their marks, riding a manageable schedule and an unlikely Heisman candidate, quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, into the top 5. They have not been dominant, with 4 of their 6 wins coming by a touchdown or less; they have done everything they needed to do to put themselves in position to finish what last year’s team couldn’t.

After last year’s blowout win in Oxford, beating Georgia in itself wouldn’t necessarily represent much of a milestone. But winning a big game on the road would: Ole Miss is 1-6 under Lane Kiffin in true road games vs. top-10 opponents, the lone win coming in a 2022 trip to … uh, Kentucky? Yeah, September 2022 was a wild time. (Kentucky went on to finish that season 7-6 and unranked.) Prior to that, the Rebels’ last road win vs. a top-10 opponent was a come-from-behind upset at then-No. 10 Texas A&M in 2016. If you remember the night Shea Patterson looked like the next Johnny Manziel, you can appreciate what a feat snapping that streak would be.

More important, a win in Athens would all but clinch a Playoff spot with the friendliest remaining schedule of any SEC team on the other side. After Saturday, next week’s trip to Oklahoma is Ole Miss’ last date against a currently ranked team; the November slate (South Carolina, The Citadel, Florida, Mississippi State) is as cushy as it gets. Of course, if anybody knows better than to take anything for granted when it comes to sewing up a CFP bid, it’s the Rebels. But the opportunity is theirs for the taking.

When Ole Miss has the ball: Is Trinidad Chambliss ready for his close-up?

Chambliss, a 5th-year transfer from Division II Ferris State, arrived in Oxford almost as an afterthought, signing on as a veteran insurance policy after the Rebels’ top backup, redshirt freshman AJ Maddox, suffered a hand injury in spring practice. There was no thought whatsoever to his potentially overtaking a healthy Austin Simmons as the full-time starter. He was so obscure that, after Ole Miss fans adopted the flag of the Caribbean island nation of Trinidad and Tobago to celebrate his emergence, there seemed to be some confusion about whether Chambliss was actually from Trinidad. (He’s a native of Grand Rapids, Michigan, where Ferris State is located.)

Since he replaced a gimpy Simmons in the starting lineup in Week 3, though, there has been no confusion about who belongs at the top of the depth chart. In 4 starts — including a convincing, 24-19 win over LSU in Week 5 — Chambliss has averaged just shy of 400 total yards per game with 9 touchdowns, relegating Simmons to the Wally Pipp role in the process. Strictly as a passer, he’s tied for 4th nationally in yards per attempt and 9th in Total QBR. Factor in his mobility, and he is easily the highest-graded SEC quarterback under duress, per Pro Football Focus, boasting an 81.4 grade on pressured reps.

Just about the only box Chambliss has yet to check is the one next to handling a hostile environment on the road. He came off the bench in Ole Miss’ only road trip to date, a Week 2 win at Kentucky, to clean up after Simmons injured his ankle late in the 4th quarter. At Ferris State, the most hostile environment he faced en route to leading the Bulldogs to a D-II national title in 2024 was a sellout crowd at in-state rival Grand Valley State. (Official stadium capacity: 10,444.) No doubt that game felt big in own way. Trotting out in front of 93,000 baying for your blood in Sanford Stadium opposite a Kirby Smart defense is a slightly different experience.

When Georgia has the ball: Can Ole Miss tackle in space?

The Dawgs can still run the ball the old-fashioned way, with second-year backs Chauncey Bowens and Nate Frazier filling the role of standard-issue Georgia thumpers between the tackles. But few if any play-callers are more committed to incorporating short, safe perimeter passes as an extension of the ground game than Mike Bobo. Per PFF, nearly a full third of QB Gunner Stockton‘s total attempts this season and 45.2% of his completions have fallen behind the line of scrimmage, the largest share of any quarterback in a Power 4 conference. No other P4 passer has more attempts (54), completions (52), or yards (396) on throws behind the line.

And for good reason, because no other team has Zachariah Branch on the receiving end. The diminutive USC transfer is one of the most electric players in the country with the ball in his hand, and has quickly carved out a role as the Dawgs’ resident screen demon. For his part, Branch leads all FBS receivers in receptions (19), yards (195) and missed tackles forced (10) behind the LOS, with a couple of long touchdowns against Marshall and Tennessee that may as well be the spread-era equivalent of a toss sweep.

The conventional running game was dismal in the win over Auburn, where Georgia’s top 3 running backs combined for 53 yards on just 2.7 per carry. In fact, the most productive runner was Branch, whose 57 yards on 9 receptions (all at or behind the line) was one of the key factors in getting the offense untracked in the second half. His long gain against the Tigers covered just 13 yards, but give him a small crease or a bad angle and he can instantly make you regret it.

The verdict …

The indelible image from last year’s game in Oxford was of Georgia’s offensive line being overrun in very un-Georgia-like fashion by Ole Miss’ NFL-ready pass rush. That’s not likely to be very relevant this year: The Rebels’ only returning d-line starter from that game, Suntarine Perkins, has yet to record a sack this season as he’s rushing less and dropping into coverage more. They’ve recorded only 9 sacks as a team, a huge decline — albeit still 1 more than Georgia, which has suffered from an alarming lack of juice in the pass-rushing department. Generally, the old assumption that the Bulldogs are going to physically impose their will in a game like this is out of date.

So what is Georgia good at? Just like last year, the answer seems to change from week to week. The Dawgs are “balanced” but don’t have anything to reliably hang their hat on the way they could the o-line and defense at their best. Instead, they take their licks, then adjust to the flow of the game as it unfolds. They’re getting by. But whatever Ole Miss has left to prove at this level, UGA’s own reputation as a year-in, year-out contender is hanging by a thread. The ‘G’ on the helmet still counts for a lot, but the gap on the field is closing fast.

Prediction: Georgia 30, • Ole Miss 26

Tennessee at Alabama (-7.5)

As long as he’s upright, Alabama QB Ty Simpson is emerging as the league’s most valuable player. The challenge is keeping him that way. He got well-acquainted with the turf in Bama’s 27-24 win at Missouri, absorbing 4 sacks and more than his fair share of hits behind an unusually unsettled offensive line for this stage of the season. Only 2 starters, future pros Kadyn Proctor and Parker Brailsford, went the distance at Mizzou, at left tackle and center, respectively. The other 3 stations all remained up for review, with the starters yielding significant snaps to reserves for the 3rd week in a row.

In fairness to the front, the running backs were also responsible for several blown protections in that game, including a whiff that led to Simpson fumbling while getting his head driven into the turf on the first play of the second half; he was down for a while after that one, and Missouri converted the short field into a tying touchdown. If anything, though, the o-line shuffle has only reinforced Bama fans’ conviction that the starting group is overdue for an update — especially at right tackle, where starter Wilkin Formby is in the crosshairs after allowing two sacks to the Tigers while splitting reps with the heir apparent, 5-star freshman Michael Carroll.

There’s no indication of a pending change on the official depth chart; until further notice, the rotation remains the status quo ahead of their annual matchup. Regardless of who lines up where, if Bama coaches are still wondering who’s a weak link, a Tennessee pass rush that leads all Power 4 defenses with 26 sacks is going to let them know in a hurry.

When not being beaten to a pulp this season, Simpson has been impeccable, recording a conference-best 92.4 PFF grade on clean drop-backs vs. a bleak 48.1 grade under pressure. (Every quarterback’s production suffers under pressure, of course, but that’s a large enough gap to be notable.) Given time, he made a couple of throws against Mizzou that belong in a gallery. On a team that can’t count on much else from one week to the next, his arm is the one reliable factor keeping the sticks moving, the defense on the sideline, and the season afloat. With every step the Tide take toward their long-term goals, the urgency of keeping him in one piece is only going to keep going up.

Prediction: • Alabama 33, Tennessee 24

LSU at Vanderbilt (-2.5)

Check out that point spread: As of mid-week, Vandy is holding firm as a 2.5-point favorite, the latest in a series of milestones a announcing the 5-1 Commodores’ arrival as a competitive outfit. Per CBS Sports, Vanderbilt hasn’t been the betting favorite against LSU since 1948, or against any ranked opponent since at least 1978, a streak spanning 176 consecutive games. (Who even knew the historical record on point spreads went back that far? Some backroom bookie preserved the line for posterity in 1948?) Anyway, the point is this is not a typical Vandy outfit content just to eke out bowl eligibility: Even coming off their Week 6 loss at Alabama, ESPN’s Football Power Index still lists the ‘Dores with a 26.9% chance to crash the Playoff – slightly behind LSU at 32.6%, but not by much – making this a de facto CFP elimination match.

If the spread is a nod of respect for Vanderbilt, it’s also a note of skepticism over LSU’s offense. The defense, a perennial sore spot since the pandemic, has risen to the occasion under 2nd-year coordinator Blake Baker, having yet to allow more than 10 points in any of its 5 wins. Meanwhile, the offense has regressed, failing top 20 points in any of its 4 games vs. Power 4 opponents, including a 24-19 loss at Ole Miss in Week 5. QB Garrett Nussmeier‘s stock has not plummeted with quite the thud of some of the other preseason headliners at the position, but if you’re looking for his name in the Heisman odds or mock drafts right now you have to scroll down to find it.

The bright spots in last week’s 20-10 win over South Carolina was the emergence of towering sophomore wideout Trey’Dez Green, who more than made up for the absence of leading receiver Aaron Anderson in the slot. Green himself had barely played since the opener due to a lingering knee injury. But he looked fully healthy against the Gamecocks, repeatedly posterizing smaller DBs to the tune of 119 yards on 14.9 per catch. Three of his 8 receptions were of the contested variety, per PFF, including his lone touchdown.

His presence is a development. Between the 6-7 Green and the diminutive Anderson (who is expected to return in Nashville), the Tigers will have 2 very different options to exploit whatever matchups Vandy throws at them. With the full arsenal finally at his disposal, Nussmeier is overdue to go off.

Prediction: • LSU 23, Vanderbilt 19

Missouri (-1.5) at Auburn

Auburn can complain about the refs until the cows come home, and it has honest beef in its losses to Oklahoma and Georgia. At the end of the day, there’s no way around the fact that the offense stinks. After pouring money into personnel, the Tigers rank dead last in SEC play in total offense, scoring offense, yards per play, first downs, 3rd-down conversions and sacks allowed. They can’t run (or won’t), can’t throw with any kind of consistency, struggle to protect the quarterback, and as a team they average a league-worst 11.3 penalties per game. Against all odds, Jackson Arnold has been a downgrade behind center from the beleaguered Payton Thorne.

You can’t chalk all that up to “momentum.” After Arnold’s controversial goal-line fumble against Georgia, Auburn still led 10-0 in a game it had dominated to that point on both sides of the ball. ESPN’s win probability metric still showed the Tigers with a 75% chance to win. Instead, they went into the deep freeze — no pun intended — failing to threaten again as UGA rallied to score 20 unanswered points. Frustration that the vibe shifted so abruptly is understandable. But it’s not the refs’ fault the offense went three-and-out on three consecutive possessions as the Bulldogs pulled away.

Ultimately, the buck stops with Hugh Freeze, who may be facing the moment of truth barely halfway through his 3rd season on the job. He’s a Harsin-esque 5-14 vs. SEC opponents, and just 2-7 at home. (The wins in Jordan-Hare coming over Mississippi State in 2023 and Texas A&M last November, the latter in quadruple overtime.) If Freeze can survive past Saturday, the schedule eases down the stretch, setting up an opportunity to pull out of the nosedive heading into the Iron Bowl. At this point, though, that is one load-bearing if. The home crowd needs something good to happen ASAP, just to be reminded what optimism feels like.

Prediction: • Auburn 24, Missouri 20

Mississippi State at Florida (-9.5)

Every coach in big-time college football will tell you “I’m coaching for my job” any time his team takes the field. Billy Napier, however, may be literally coaching for his job. USA Today‘s Matt Hayes — a former SDS colleague — reported earlier this week that Napier’s boss, Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin, met with a group of boosters who demanded that Napier walk the plank, potentially as soon as this weekend. These would be the same boosters who were reportedly prepared to shill out to cover Napier’s buyout last year, before Stricklin convinced them to give Napier another year and pour that money into NIL efforts instead. They did, to some effect — amid an improbable November winning streak, Florida flipped incoming 4-star recruits from Oregon, Miami, USC, Penn State, Florida State, Auburn and Texas in the weeks after announcing Napier’s return, without suffering any high-profile losses via the portal. This time around, it seems they’re not interested in giving him another shot at changing their minds.

As of this writing, the only part of the initial report that anyone on Florida’s end has bothered to push back on is a line about donors threatening to withhold financial support. As far as Napier’s status is concerned, it’s not exactly a revelation that the man is toast. It’s not a matter of if, but when. Given the timing of the leak, we can assume that certain stakeholders are ready to pull the plug now, with an open date on deck, to give the locker room time to absorb the change before gearing up for a Week 10 Cocktail Party date against Georgia. Losing to a Mississippi State outfit that hasn’t won an SEC game in 2 calendar years (on Homecoming, no less) would certainly give them the excuse they need. If their minds are really made up, though, Napier’s time might be up win or lose. At this stage, what would be the point of prolonging the inevitable?

Prediction: Florida 29, • Miss. State 21

Texas A&M (-7.5) at Arkansas

Arkansas has no shortage of issues, obviously — turnover margin; the concept of defense, in general — but converting 3rd downs is not one of them. The Razorbacks are among the nation’s best on 3rd down, converting at an impressive 57.1% clip for the season; in their 2 SEC games against Ole Miss and Tennessee, they’ve converted 16-of-25 3rd downs (64%), good for the best rate of any FBS team in conference play.

But the Hogs’ success extending drives on offense pales in comparison to Texas A&M’s success in snuffing them out. In 3 conference games to date — comfortable wins over Auburn, Mississippi State and Florida, all in College Station — the defense has allowed a grand total of 2 3rd-down conversions on 33 attempts, a staggering stop rate of nearly 94%. All-time records for 3rd-down defense are not readily available; suffice to say, if the Aggies kept it up that number would be a modern record, at least. An outlier like that, starting Saturday vs. Arkansas, is almost certainly unsustainable as they embark on a season-defining, 3-game road trip over the next 4 weeks. Then again, with an outlier like that, there’s plenty of room for regression to the mean before it actually matters.

Prediction: • Texas A&M 34, Arkansas 22

Oklahoma (-5.5) at South Carolina

Compared to Billy Napier and Hugh Freeze, the short-term forecast for Brent Venables and Shane Beamer seems relatively placid. Long-term, storms are a-brewin’. 

South Carolina, which opened the season boasting its highest expectations in more than a decade, is off to a 1-3 start in SEC play with looming dates against Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Clemson down the stretch. QB LaNorris Sellers‘ outsized talent has yielded to outsized frustration amid an underwhelming supporting cast. The Gamecocks rank last in the SEC in total offense, next-to-last in scoring, and just fired the offensive line coach following a debacle of an evening at LSU. (Sellers faced pressure on 65% of his drop-backs against the Tigers, per PFF, and traversed a total of over the course of the game, per the SEC Network’s Cole Cubelic.) Beamer’s name remains a fixture in speculation over the head-coaching vacancy at his alma mater, Virginia Tech.

Oklahoma is in better shape record-wise, at 5-1. Schedule-wise, last week’s 23-6 flop against Texas left the Sooners on edge. The offense’s failure to launch against the Longhorns drained all of the goodwill built up over the first month of the season – especially concerning QB John Mateer, whose rapid ascent as a Sooner is suddenly in danger of going down as a “September Heisman” punchline. Even when the arrow was pointing up, the brutal closing stretch against Ole Miss, Tennessee, Bama, Missouri and LSU was a reminder to keep expectations in check. If OU enters it coming off back-to-back losses, suddenly it’s a grim reminder that Venables is not out of the woods yet.

Prediction: Oklahoma 21, • South Carolina 17

Texas (-11.5) at Kentucky

Did Arch Manning turn a corner against Oklahoma? Or was it just that the rest of the team finally put him in position to succeed? The win over the Sooners was a true team effort, beginning with a stifling outing by the defense and ending with a special teams touchdown to put the game on ice. In between, the Longhorns got a workhorse effort from RB Quintrevion Wisner (94 yards on 22 carries) and never put Manning in a position where he felt it was up to him to Make A Play or else.

Contrast that with their Week 6 loss at Florida, which unfolded almost entirely with Texas stuck in comeback mode. In that one, the ‘Horns fell behind 10-0 in the first quarter, abandoned the run altogether, and never touched the ball on offense with a chance to take the lead. Manning launched 14 attempts of 20+ air yards, threw 2 interceptions, and was sacked 6 times behind an overwhelmed o-line. Pass protection remained an issue against Oklahoma, which generated pressure on exactly half of Manning’s 30 drop-backs; unlike in The Swamp, though, he was never forced to deviate from the conservative blueprint, attempting just 3 passes of 20+ air yards (completing all 3), taking a single sack, and committing zero turnovers. 

Sure, the words “conservative blueprint” are probably not much solace to anybody who put money down on Arch to win the Hesiman back in August. But for an outfit with its back against the wall, at least now they know what the path forward looks like.

Prediction: • Texas 27, Kentucky 13

Scoreboard

Week 7 record: 7-0 straight-up | 4-3 vs. spread
Season record: 62-11 straight-up | 29-39 vs. spread

The post Week 8 SEC Primer: Georgia is losing its edge. Is Ole Miss ready to make its move? appeared first on Saturday Down South.

1. Ty Simpson, Alabama

As long as he’s upright, Simpson is emerging as the league’s most valuable player. The challenge is keeping him that way. He got well-acquainted with the turf in Bama’s 27-24 win at Missouri, absorbing 4 sacks and more than his fair share of hits behind an unusually unsettled offensive line for this stage of the season. Only 2 starters, future pros Kadyn Proctor and Parker Brailsford, went the distance at Mizzou, at left tackle and center, respectively. The other 3 stations all remained up for review, with the starters yielding significant snaps to reserves for the 3rd week in a row.

In fairness to the front, the running backs were also responsible for several blown protections on Saturday, including a whiff that led to Simpson fumbling while getting his head driven into the turf on the first play of the second half; he was down for a while after that one, and Missouri converted the short field into a tying touchdown. If anything, though, the o-line shuffle has only reinforced Bama fans’ conviction that the starting unit is overdue for an update — especially at right tackle, where starter Wilkin Formby is in the crosshairs after allowing 2 sacks to the Tigers while splitting reps with the heir apparent, 5-star freshman Michael Carroll.

When not being beaten to a pulp, Simpson has been impeccable, recording a conference-best 92.4 PFF grade on clean drop-backs vs. a dismal 47.1 grade under pressure. (Every quarterback’s production suffers under pressure, of course, but that’s a large enough gap to be notable.) Given time, he made a couple of throws against Mizzou that belong in a gallery. On a team that can’t count on much else from one week to the next, his arm is the one reliable factor keeping the sticks moving, the defense on the sideline and the season afloat. With every step the Tide take toward their long-term goals, the urgency of keeping the Heisman front-runner in one piece is only going to keep going up.

Last week: 1⬌

2. Taylen Green, Arkansas

Green is in the midst of what may go down as one of the great “in a losing effort” campaigns on record. Most recently, he accounted for 319 total yards and 3 touchdowns Saturday in a 34-31 loss at Tennessee, already the 3rd time this season he’s accounted for 300+ in a loss in which the Razorbacks scored at least 31 points. At midseason, he ranks No. 1 or No. 2 nationally in total offense, Total QBR and EPA, all in service of a lame-duck team that will be lucky to win another game. Even including sack totals, Green still is on pace to become the first Arkansas QB to rush for 1,000 yards in a season.

Last week: 7

3. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt

The last time we saw Pavia, he was committing a pair of killer red-zone turnovers in the Commodores’ Week 6 loss at Alabama. His brief surge in the Heisman odds has waned in the meantime. But for some measure of his esteem, check out the point spread for this weekend’s date against LSU in Nashville: As of mid-week, Vandy is holding firm as a 2.5-point favorite, the latest in a series of milestones in Pavia’s tenure. Per CBS Sports, Vanderbilt hasn’t kicked off as the betting favorite against LSU since 1948, or against any ranked opponent since at least 1978, a streak spanning 176 consecutive games. 

Last week: 3⬌

4. Gunner Stockton, Georgia

How long can Georgia survive falling into steep holes? Saturday’s come-from-behind, 20-10 win at Auburn was typical: The Bulldogs have faced a double-digit deficit in the first half in 7 of their last 10 games vs. Power 4 opponents (including last year’s Playoff loss to Notre Dame, Stockton’s first career start), and trailed at halftime in 8 of them. Already this season, they’ve fallen behind 21-7 at Tennessee; 14-0 and 21-7 against Alabama; and 10-0 at Auburn in a shockingly one-sided first half. (Auburn fans, of course, will go to their grave insisting it should have been 17-0.) Over the past calendar year, it has been 1 close shave after another.

The problem does not begin or end with the quarterback. But needless to say, that bears little resemblance to the dominant 2021-23 machine that spent essentially 3 consecutive seasons entrenched at No. 1, which rarely failed put games to bed before halftime. In 36 regular-season wins in that span, Georgia trailed in the second half just once, in a 2022 scare at Missouri. Those teams guaranteed a stress-free experience or your money back. This one doesn’t get out of bed for less than a 10-point hole.

Last week: 4⬌

5. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee

Aguilar is faring just fine statistically, but not nearly as well as he ought to be if the Vols were hanging onto the ball. PFF has dinged Tennessee receivers with 17 drops on the season, most in the conference, at a sky-high rate of 12.6%. Eight of those drops have come in the past 2 games, too-close-for-comfort calls against Mississippi State and Arkansas — the most likely reason Aguilar’s stellar PFF grades in those games came out notably better than the conventional box scores.

Last week: 8

6. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

The final score of Ole Miss’ 24-21 win over Washington State was a little bit misleading. The Rebels moved the ball at roughly their typical pace, but left points on the field on each of their first 3 possessions, which ended in a turnover on downs inside the Wazzu 5-yard line; a missed field goal; and a Chambliss fumble in field-goal range, respectively. Sloppy, but not very illuminating. If accounting for 268 total yards and 3 touchdowns in a win is a cause for concern, things are going OK. 

The real concern ahead of this week’s trip to Georgia is Chambliss’ first experience in a Hostile-with-a-capital-H SEC environment. His biggest road trip in Division II was an in-state rivalry date at Grand Valley State.

Last week: 5

7. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M

I’m resolved to reserve judgment on Reed until the deep end of the schedule — road tests at LSU, Missouri and Texas loom over the back half — but he has consistently hit his marks in the Aggies’ 6-0 start. One lingering question mark is his downfield arm strength: For the season, Reed is just 10-for-33 passing on attempts of 20+ yards, with 3 interceptions. He’s finished 1-for-5 each of the past 2 weeks against Mississippi State and Florida. Then again, the lone connection in Saturday’s 34-17 win over the Gators was a beauty:

If A&M is going to win big, it’s going to be on the strength of the defense and ground game, not Reed’s arm. But if he has just one of those in him every time out, it would go a long way to sustaining the goose egg in the loss column.

Last week: 6

8. John Mateer, Oklahoma

The good news: The injury to Mateer’s throwing hand only cost him 1 game, a routine blowout over Kent State. The bad news: Every other aspect of his performance in a 23-6 loss to Texas, an eye-opener in all the wrong ways. Rather than an MVP, Mateer looked like, well, an overachiever rushing back too soon from an injury against an elite defense. He threw 3 interceptions, took 5 sacks and turned in season-lows by far in passer rating (81.5), QBR (42.8) and overall PFF grade (36.9). The Sooners managed a couple of first-half field goals, but never breached the red zone and didn’t come close to scoring again.

With that, he risks joining the not-so-esteemed fraternity of the September Heisman, the mythical award bestowed on shooting stars whose early-season breakthrough quickly goes bust. (Recall such September Heisman luminaries as Taylor Martinez, Kenny Hill and the immortal Tate Forcier.) Before his injury, Mateer was the betting favorite; a few weeks later, he’s an afterthought as Oklahoma braces for a brutal back half of the schedule featuring 5 teams currently ranked in the AP top 20. On one hand, that leaves plenty of opportunities to resurrect his Heisman campaign if the Sooners can salvage what now looks like an unlikely Playoff run. But then, laying an egg that big in one of the biggest games of the year is rarely a precursor of bigger and better things to come.

Last week: 2

9. Beau Pribula, Missouri

Pribula didn’t exactly turn into a pumpkin in the Mizzou’s loss to Alabama, accounting for 3 touchdowns and a perfectly cromulent 75.8 QBR score. At one point, he juked Bama’s best defender, safety Bray Hubbard, clean off his feet on a 5-yard TD run. Thrust into comeback mode for the first time this season, though, he simply didn’t have the juice as a passer. Pribula’s first attempt of the game was a 26-yard touchdown to his tight end, Brent Norfleet, to cap the opening series; from that point on, he was 15-for-27 passing for 136 yards (5.0 ypc) and 2 interceptions, with roughly half of that production coming on a couple of last-gasp drives as the walls were closing in. The pick that ended the game, in particular, was a dagger on multiple levels.

Not ideal, but it could always be worse. On an alternate timeline, he could have been preparing to take over as the new starting quarterback at Penn State.

Last week: 9⬌

10. Arch Manning, Texas

Win or lose, the magnifying glass on Manning’s every move invites exaggeration and overreaction. In the Longhorns’ losses to Ohio State and Florida, he was condemned an overrated bum. In Saturday’s 23-6 win over Oklahoma, he was risen from the ashes. Based strictly on the vibes, it was easy to get the impression he looked like a different quarterback. In real time, the transformation was … less dramatic. The actual difference, on the field, was a dominant performance by the defense, a productive afternoon from the ground game, and a special teams touchdown that supplied the final margin in the 4th quarter.

That’s not to dismiss the fact that Arch looked sharper and more confident against the Sooners, especially in the second half. He was 6-of-7 on attempts of 10+ air yards, led 4 extended scoring drives (3 of them after halftime), contributed as a runner and finished with a season-high 89.0 QBR score. He moved the sticks 4 times on 3rd down with 7+ yards to go. He didn’t commit a turnover and was only sacked once despite facing pressure on 50% of his drop-backs, per PFF. Finally, he looked like he was in his comfort zone in a game that matters.

But he didn’t arrive there all on his own. Unlike the flop at Florida, where the Longhorns fell behind 10-0 in the first quarter and spent the rest of the game in comeback mode, Texas’ defense dictated the pace against Oklahoma in the Red River Showdown, never stranding its young QB in a situation where he felt like it was up to him to Make a Play or else. The ‘Horns quickly abandoned the running game in The Swamp; in the Cotton Bowl, RB Quintrevion Wisner was a workhorse, running 22 times for a season-high 94 yards. Manning’s long completion covered just 24 yards, and his pedestrian 6.1 yards per attempt was nearly 3 full yards below his average YPA in the loss to the Gators. He didn’t feel pressure to singlehandedly win the game with his golden arm, because his team didn’t need him to.

Ironically, the big takeaway from Arch’s first big win as a starter was the same as it was amid the outcry following the losses: Hype notwithstanding, he needs as much patience and support as any other sophomore on the upward slope of the learning curve. Saturday was a blueprint for keeping the season on track while he continues to grow into the role. By the postseason, who knows? Texas still have favorable national title odds. In the meantime, getting him there with his confidence and potential intact is going to be a full team effort.

Last week: 13

11. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Nussmeier is doing enough right to keep the 5-1 Tigers afloat opposite a vastly improved defense. When it goes wrong, though, it has been ugly. With 2 interceptions in Saturday’s 20-10 win over South Carolina, Nussmeier has thrown 4 INTs in 3 SEC games, all of them unbecoming of a guy who as recently as a few weeks ago was being touted as a potential first-rounder. He served up egregious picks with the offense in scoring position against Florida and Ole Miss, and both of his interceptions against the Gamecocks were delivered confidently from a clean pocket directly into the arms of a waiting safety.

Not what you want to see from a 5th-year senior in his 20th career start, especially entering the make-or-break stretch of the schedule against Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Alabama. No one in Baton Rouge needs to be reminded that this is the same point on the calendar that last year’s 6-1 start went off the rails.

Last week: 11⬌

12. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

Sellers was sacked 5 times in Carolina’s loss at LSU, and it was only due to a heroic effort that it wasn’t more. Per PFF, he was under pressure on nearly two-thirds of his 40 drop-backs, an outrageous rate; per the SEC Network’s Cole Cubelic (citing a data analytics company), Sellers traversed a total distance of 894 yards over the course of the game fleeing from LSU rushers. He threw as many passes away (5) as he completed for first downs.

On Sunday, Shane Beamer fired his offensive line coach, telling reporters that the debacle in Baton Rouge was only the anvil the broke the camel’s back: “It had been building for a bit.” With the offense as a whole languishing at the bottom of the conference and not much left for the 3-3 Gamecocks to play for in what was supposed to be a breakthrough year, the looming question is whether the next man out might not be Sellers himself. There’s still half a season to be played, but at this point both his draft stock and his asking price as a potential transfer are plummeting. If there’s still time or willingness to restore either in South Carolina, that window might be closing fast.

Last week: 10

13. DJ Lagway, Florida

Lagway peaked early at Texas A&M, leading a pair of first-quarter scoring drives on which he was a combined 9-for-10 for 121 yards and 2 touchdowns. It was a long way down from there: Florida managed a single field goal over the final 3 quarters as A&M pulled away in a 17-point loss. Reduced to comeback mode, Lagway spent the second half fending for his life seemingly every time he dropped back.

That kinda year. This weekend’s homecoming date against Mississippi State is an opportunity to put the negativity on hold for a couple weeks heading into an open date, before a ritual throttling at the hands of Georgia begins the cycle anew.

Last week: 12

14. Jackson Arnold, Auburn

Am I the only person in America other than the officiating crew itself who thought the refs got the call right on Arnold’s crucial goal-line fumble at the end of the first half against Georgia? Or at least, as right as they could under Rorschach test conditions?

Besides being a critical moment in the game, this play is a very good example of the futility of the idea that there is some objective Eye in the Sky capable of replacing good old-fashioned human judgment on each and every call. They spent 6 minutes poring over every frame of this play from multiple directions, syncing up the angles, slowing them down to the smallest allowable fraction of a second, and still did not come close to offering a conclusive point of view. Arnold lost control the ball at the exact nanosecond he crossed the imaginary plane extending up from the front end of the stripe. (My editor and I found the broadcast crew’s certainty that the ball crossed the plane mystifying, and unfair to the folks who actually had to make an impossible call.) Georgia had arguably just as compelling a case that it should have been awarded a touchdown going the other way, given that defender Kyron Jones recovered the loose ball — ruled a fumble on the field and upheld on review — and was never down. Choose your own adventure.

I don’t have the time or space here to get into the full spiel about why replay needs to be dramatically curtailed. But if the point is to eliminate or simply minimize controversy, the actual result is closer the opposite. In a way, it’s a victim of its own success: The expectation that deferring to the video means getting every call “right” only makes people more enraged when it turns out no one can discern or agree on what the “right” call even is. Auburn has now been on the wrong end of 2 massive swing plays in a matter of weeks that could have just as easily gone the other way based on the video evidence, which was anything but conclusive in either case. Sometimes the folks in charge just have to make a call and the rest of us have to live with it.

At any rate, Auburn has little room to complain given the wholesale collapse that followed. The Tigers had thoroughly dominated the game up to that point on both sides of the ball, and despite blowing a prime opportunity to extend the margin they were still in the driver’s seat with a 10-0 lead and UGA’s offense backup up inside its own 5-yard line with less than 2 minutes to go in the half. From that point on, they stunk up the joint, allowing the Bulldogs to score 20 unanswered points without a flicker of a response from their own deflated offense. If a call at the end of the first half in a game in which the Tigers held a 2-score lead actually made a difference in the final outcome, that’s on the Tigers.

Last week: 14⬌

15. Blake Shapen, Mississippi State

One running subplot in Starkville over the second half of the season is the quest to snap a 14-games-and-counting SEC losing streak dating back 2 full calendar years. State is likely to be a significant underdog in every remaining game, give or take a Nov. 1 trip to Arkansas. Another will be Shapen’s grip on the job as the losses stack higher. A couple of touted underclassmen, Luke Kromenhoek and Kamario Taylor, are waiting in the wings, and Shapen’s last memorable moment in the Bulldogs’ Week 2 upset over Arizona State is rapidly receding into the rearview.

Last week: 15⬌

16. Cutter Boley, Kentucky

Kentucky has no downfield passing game to speak of, but not for lack of trying. Between Boley and the guy he replaced as QB1, Zach Calzada, the Wildcats lead the conference in attempts of 20+ air yards, per PFF. Actually completing them, of course, is another story. Boley and Calzada are a combined 4-for-36 on those throws for a depressing 3.7 yards per attempt and no touchdowns. Still, unlike many previous Kentucky attacks under Mark Stoops, no one can accuse them of not trying.

Last week: 16⬌

The post SEC QB Rankings, Week 8: Meet the new Arch Manning, same as old Arch Manning appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Vibes Check

Seven Saturdays down, 7 more to go in the 2025 regular season. How y’all feeling? It’s your semiannual Monday Down South Vibes Index, where we classify all 16 teams’ auras from grooviest to grimmest:

Cruising: Texas A&M

A&M might not be the most convincing SEC or national championship frontrunner, especially considering its reputation for late-season fadeouts. At the midway point, though, it is the only team that has hit its mark every time out. The Aggies passed their big nonconference road test at Notre Dame, won their first 3 SEC games convincingly, and are off to a 6-0 start for just the 2nd time in the past 30 years. Mike Elko, a relatively nondescript pick to sweep up after the Jimbo Fisher administration, is shaping up as one of the decade’s shrewdest hires. 

Now comes the hard part. So far, all 3 of A&M’s conference wins have come at home, over opponents (Auburn, Mississippi State and Florida) with a combined 1-7 record in SEC play. The next 3 are all on the road, at Arkansas, LSU and Mizzou as is the regular-season finale at Texas. So far, the Aggies look like arguably the league’s most complete team. But they were riding high around this time last year, too, in the midst of a 7-game win streak that vaulted them into the top 10 entering November; from there, they crashed out in a 1-4 finish. (Aggies fans have felt that pain more than any team in the country; See: No. 5.) Even when the light is green, this is a fan base that has learned the hard way to look both ways before crossing.

On course: Alabama , Ole Miss ⬌

Last year, Bama and Ole Miss shared the distinction of beating the best teams on their schedule while dropping multiple games to unranked underdogs, blowing their shot at the Playoff. This year, they’re still earning back some of the trust they lost in the process. 

The Crimson Tide have been steady since their Week 1 flop at Florida State, though hardly inevitable, outlasting Georgia, Vanderbilt and Missouri the past 3 weeks in mostly unspectacular fashion. The days of Bama taking a 3-game streak over ranked opponents for granted are long gone – in fact, after the intense rebuke that followed the FSU debacle, there’s a lot to be said for the way this group has risen to the occasion in a series of close, hard-fought games. If it wasn’t, you know, Alabama, it might almost be endearing.

On that note, if I were giving an award for midseason MVP, it would go to Heisman favorite Ty Simpson, who continues to keep Bama’s season afloat. The running game is mediocre, pass protection is inconsistent (to put it kindly), and the defense ain’t what it used to be. Simpson just continues to make plays that move the sticks and keep the defense off the field. In their wins over UGA, Vandy and Mizzou, the Tide had 31 3rd- and 4th-down conversions, most of them via Simpson’s arm, while racking up lopsided advantages in time of possession in all 3 games. When not getting beaten to a pulp in Saturday’s 27-24 win at Missouri, he was orchestrating sustained drives; on the most crucial, with Alabama clinging to a 3-point lead late in the 4th quarter, he connected on a pair of 4th-down daggers – one to extend the drive on the most ice-cold, NFL-ready throw of his young career to date, the other to extend the lead to double digits on his 3rd touchdown pass of the afternoon.

That’s the kind of throw that elevates you from the “Heisman hopeful” pack to the shortlist with a bullet. Based on the past few weeks, it’s also the kind of throw Alabama is counting on him to continue making in a pinch to stay one step ahead of the reaper. Doubts are receding by the week.

As for Ole Miss, the Rebels are right where they want to be at 6-0 with a top-5 ranking, a rising star in QB Trinidad Chambliss, and a win over LSU on the books. But Saturday’s 24-21 escape against 32.5-point underdog Washington State was a little too close to the kind of random flop that derailed last year’s Playoff push for comfort. Back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma the next 2 weeks will make or break the Rebels’ season.

Can’t complain: Missouri ⬌, Vanderbilt ⬌

OK, maybe Missouri can complain a little bit. The Tigers matched Bama physically and statistically but couldn’t make enough plays to pull off what would have been a program-defining upset. Still, they made a convincing enough case that they belong in the Playoff discussion at 5-1, albeit with a significantly reduced margin for error. They’re as close to a breakthrough as they’ve been in the CFP era.

Vandy is 5-1, ranked, and on currently on pace for its best season since 1948 according to Sports-Reference.com’s Simple Rating System. The ‘Dores actually opened as 2.5-point favorites at home against LSU after giving Alabama a 4-quarter game in Tuscaloosa in Week 6. We’ll see what they make of the opportunity in front of them, but the fact that it exists at all already cements this this as one of the most memorable campaigns in living memory. 

Proceeding with caution: Georgia ⬌, LSU ⬌, Tennessee ⬌

In the standings, the Dawgs, Tigers and Vols all remain on the Playoff track at 5-1. On the field, they’re all making it look a lot harder than it should.

Georgia keeps digging holes to climb out of, often steep ones. Saturday’s come-from-behind, 20-10 win at Auburn was typical: The Bulldogs have faced a double-digit deficit in the first half in 7 of their past 10 games vs. Power 4 opponents (including last year’s Playoff loss to Notre Dame), and trailed at halftime in 8 of them. Already this season, they’ve fallen behind 21-7 at Tennessee; 14-0 and 21-7 against Alabama; and 10-0 at Auburn in a shockingly one-sided first half. (Auburn fans, of course, will go to their grave insisting it should have been 17-0.) Over the past calendar year, it has been one close shave after another.

Needless to say, that bears little resemblance to the dominant 2021-23 machine that spent essentially 3 consecutive seasons entrenched at No. 1, which rarely failed put games to bed before halftime. In 36 regular-season wins in that span, Georgia trailed in the second half just once, in a 2022 scare at Missouri. Those teams guaranteed a stress-free experience or your money back. This one doesn’t get out of bed for less than a 10-point hole.

LSU breathed a momentary sigh of relief on Saturday night after a 20-10 win over South Carolina, a slightly less harrowing result in real time than Georgia’s identical final score at Auburn. But the Tigers are still waiting for their first complete outing on offense. Despite finishing with a season-high 420 yards against Carolina, they committed 3 turnovers, managed a single touchdown on 5 trips inside the red zone, and failed to top 20 points for the 4th time in as many games vs. a Power 4 opponent. 

If the opening line for this weekend’s trip to Nashville holds, LSU will be the underdog in each of their next 3 games against Vandy, Alabama and Texas A&M. With no ranked wins currently under their belt, the Tigers almost certainly can’t afford to lose more than 1 of them.

Tennessee’s issue is on the other side of the ball: Despite boasting the SEC’s highest-scoring offense, the defense leaves the Vols with a vanishing margin for error. They’ve allowed 31+ points in all 3 SEC games, 2 of which – a loss to Georgia and a win at Mississippi State – were decided in overtime. Saturday’s 34-31 win over Arkansas in Knoxville was yet another shootout in which the lame-duck Razorbacks rang up 497 yards, 29 first downs, and a nearly 10-minute advantage in time of possession. An SEC win is an SEC win, but nothing about that inspires confidence going into Tuscaloosa. 

Not dead yet: Texas

Arch Madness lives! Well, for at least a week or 2, anyway. And it’s not so much madness as a massive sigh of relief following a 23-6 romp over Oklahoma, which owed much more to a sweltering effort by Texas’ defense than it did to the Longhorns’ overexposed (in every sense of the word) young quarterback. Arch was fine, accounting for 200 total yards and a touchdown while under steady assault from the opposing pass rush for the second week in a row. Unlike the Week 6 loss at Florida, the defense gave him plenty of cushion against the Sooners, including 3 takeaways. For the first time this year, he didn’t return the favor.

Regardless of the circumstances, the look of relief on Manning’s face post-game was palpable. Beating a rival is a milestone; restoring his confidence in the wake of an outpouring of negativity only added to it. Whether he’s actually turned a corner, TBD. But the schedule sets up in his favor, giving him a full month until the next above-the-fold collision at Georgia with tune-ups against Mississippi State, Kentucky and Vanderbilt in between. The Longhorns are still Playoff longshots is concerned, but for now just salvaging any shot at all will do.

Bracing for impact: Oklahoma

OU’s first loss of the season was a bitter pill, and not only because it came in the game the Sooners most want to win. The outlook for the rest of the season also got much darker. September star John Mateer turned into a pumpkin, rushing back from surgery on his throwing hand only to serve up 3 interceptions and a dismal 42.8 QBR rating, worst of the weekend among SEC starters. The offense as a whole was out of sync, and the previously elite defense gradually gave way in the second half. Looking ahead, the schedule only gets steeper, with a road trip to South Carolina on deck followed by a gauntlet of 5 consecutive opponents currently ranked in the top 20. If the team that took the field in the Cotton Bowl is the one Sooners fans can expect down the stretch, the Playoff math gets grim in a hurry. 

Unburdened: Arkansas ⬌

For their own sake, I sincerely hope Hogs fans have give themselves permission to take the rest of the season off. Bowl eligibility is a pipe dream and they’ve already fired the head coach. Nothing that happens between now and the arrival of the new coach in December matters in the slightest. At best, the Razorbacks manage to keep it interesting as perennial underdogs, like they did Saturday at Tennessee. At worst, they actually spring a couple of upsets and wind up with full-time head coach Bobby Petrino by default. Feel free to spend the rest of your lovely fall Saturdays between now and December thinking about literally anything else.

Adrift: Mississippi State ⬌, South Carolina

Neither Jeff Lebby nor Shane Beamer is likely to be going anywhere soon, but neither are their respective teams. The Bulldogs and Gamecocks are a combined 1-5 in conference play and both project as underdogs in every remaining SEC games, give or take Mississippi State’s Nov. 1 trip to Arkansas. At least State has some motivation to end the longest active conference losing streak, currently at 14 games dating to 2023. Carolina, which opened the season with its highest expectations in a decade, has nothing in particular left to play for and the meat of the schedule still ahead. If the locals do start to sour on Beamer, don’t be surprised if the vacancy at Virginia Tech he insists he has no interest in suddenly start to look a little more interesting. 

The end is nigh: Auburn , Florida , Kentucky

The Tigers, Gators and Wildcats are a combined 1-8 in SEC play, and the odds of Hugh Freeze, Billy Napier or Mark Stoops remaining employed on Dec. 1 are dwindling by the week. Buyouts? Bygones. Napier and Stoops, especially, are widely understood to be dead men walking after narrowly avoiding the chopping block in 2024. Nothing has changed in the meantime except what little patience remained in both Gainesville and Lexington has grown even thinner. Barring a dramatic turn of events in the next few weeks, it’s not a question of if, but when, and who’s next. 

Freeze’s situation at Auburn is more complex. The Tigers are struggling, especially on offense. Their big-ticket investments in upgrading the talent level in the passing game have not paid off, yielding an attack that ranks dead last in the SEC in yards per attempt and next-to-last in efficiency. But they are not hopeless. The defense has held up its end of the bargain in all 3 SEC losses. Two of those games involved controversial calls that resulted in big, momentum-changing swings on the scoreboard. And the next 5 games are all winnable, giving them an opportunity to generate some wind in their sails heading into the season-defining Iron Bowl date with Alabama.

Whether “season-defining” equals “win or else” depends on what happens between now and then. But at least a gettable version of Bama in Jordan-Hare is something to look forward to. (Remember, even the Saban-era Tide routinely struggled in odd-year visits to Auburn, going 5-4 in those games and trailing late in the 4th quarter in 3 of the 5 wins.) Even in the worst-case scenario, the Iron Bowl is Freeze’s chance to draw the professional equivalent of a Get Out Of Jail Free card. At the rate it’s going, though, it’s looking more and more likely he’s going to need it.

Dude of the Week: LSU TE/WR Trey’Dez Green

Before Saturday, the 6-7, 240-pound Green had been a nonentity this season due to a lingering knee injury. With the Tigers’ best receiver, Aaron Anderson, on ice against South Carolina, Green picked an opportune moment to break out in a big way. Towering over Gamecocks DBs, he finished with career highs for targets (11), receptions (8) and receiving yards (136), including 3 contested catches, per PFF.

A fully operational Green is a potential game-changer on an offense in desperate need of them.

Dud of the Week: South Carolina’s Offensive Line

Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers was under duress on 26 of his 40 drop-backs in the Gamecocks’ loss at LSU, per PFF, an appalling pressure rate of 65.0% — the highest rate any SEC quarterback has faced in any game this season. PFF singled out 5 different USC linemen for multiple pressures allowed. Under the circumstances, Sellers did a respectable job taking just 3 sacks and avoiding turnovers in the crosshairs. (His lone interception came from a clean pocket.) But the offense has been a massive disappointment across the board in Carolina’s 3-3 start, with scoring down by more than 10 points per game compared to last year in SEC play.

Notebook

1.) Am I the only person in America other than the officiating crew itself who thought the refs in Auburn-Georgia got the call right on Jackson Arnold‘s crucial goal line fumble just before halftime? Or at least, as right as they could under Rorschach test conditions?

Besides being a critical moment in the game, this play is a very good example of the futility of the idea that there is some objective Eye in the Sky capable of replacing good old-fashioned human judgment on each and every call. They spent 6 minutes poring over every frame of this play from multiple directions, syncing up the angles, slowing them down to the smallest allowable fraction of a second, and still did not come close to offering a conclusive point of view. Arnold lost control the ball at literally the exact nanosecond he crossed the imaginary plane extending up from the front end of the stripe. (My editor found the broadcast crew’s certainty that the ball crossed the plane mystifying, and so did I.) Georgia had arguably just as compelling a case that it should have been awarded a touchdown, given that defender Kyron Jones recovered the loose ball — as called on the field and upheld on review — and was never down. Choose your own adventure.

I don’t have the time or space here to get into the full spiel about why replay needs to be dramatically curtailed. But if the point is to eliminate or simply minimize controversy, the actual result is closer the opposite. In a way, it’s a victim of its own success: The expectation that deferring to the video means getting every call “right” only makes people more enraged when it turns out no one can discern or agree on what the “right” call even is.

Auburn has now been on the wrong end of 2 massive swing plays in a matter of weeks that could have just as easily gone the other way based on the video evidence, which was anything but conclusive in either case. Sometimes the folks in charge just have to make a call and the rest of us have to live with it.

At any rate, Auburn has little room to complain given the way the offense’s second-half collapse. The Tigers had thoroughly dominated the game up to that point, and despite blowing a prime opportunity to extend the margin were still in the driver’s seat with a 10-0 lead and UGA’s offense backup up inside its own 5-yard line with less than 2 minutes to go in the half. From that point on, they stunk up the joint, allowing the Bulldogs to score 20 unanswered points without a flicker of a response from Auburn’s deflated offense. If a call at the end of the first half in a game in which they held a score-score lead actually made a difference in the final outcome, that’s on the Tigers.

2.) Count the blocks in the back by Texas on the game-changing punt return by Ryan Niblett in the 4th quarter:

I’ve got 2 without a doubt: One comes just after Niblett gathers the punt, a plain shove in the back by No. 24 around the 30 yard-line; the other comes around the 50-yard line, where a Texas blocker left his feet to take out the last remaining Oklahoma defender with a chance to make the tackle as Niblett breaks into the open field. Hit him squarely in the numbers. In between, there were also a couple of blindside blocks that took OU players off their feet; I will generously classify those as “debatable,” given that the blockers managed to engage at the shoulders rather than in the back, but on both they still arrived from outside of the defender’s field of vision. Look, I’m not a stickler for each and every possible flag that could potentially be thrown, but you gotta call 1 of those. The block at midfield — directly in the path of the runner! — was egregious enough on its own.

3.) In my preview of the Alabama-Missouri game last week I pointed out that time of possession would be a key indicator: Mizzou led the nation in TOP entering the game at more than 37 minutes per game, and Bama finished with a big edge in TOP in its previous 2 wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt. So it was: The Crimson Tide held the ball for a whopping 38:33 on Saturday, a 17-minute advantage that kept Mizzou’s offense sidelined and resigned to playing from behind most of the afternoon.

4.) Beau Pribula’s game-clinching INT on Mizzou’s last-gasp drive against Bama was a missed opportunity on multiple levels. Besides being a poor throw that sailed well over the head of his intended receiver, Pribula missed a wide-open Marquis Johnson, who let his quarterback, the entire stadium, and everyone watching at home know it.

5.) Texas A&M’s defense continues to dominate on 3rd downs. In 3 conference games, the Aggies have held opposing offenses from Auburn, Mississippi State and Florida to a grand total of 2 3rd-down conversions on 33 attempts, a microscopic success rate of 6.1%.

Moment of Zen of the Week

The post Monday Down South: Texas A&M cruises, Georgia snoozes in the Midseason Vibes Index appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Game of the Week: Oklahoma (-1.5) vs. Texas

The stakes: Set aside for a second the fact that these people flat-out do not like each other. Even outside of the context of the rivalry, Oklahoma vs. Texas is one of the handful of games on the annual calendar that always matters. Saturday’s entry will mark the 24th time in 26 meetings since the turn of the century in which one or both teams arrive ranked in the AP top 15, with conference championship and Playoff implications perennially on the line.

This year — in defiance of the preseason odds — that team is Oklahoma, which comes in with its best record (5-0) and ranking (6th) at this point on the calendar in four years under coach Brent Venables. Fortunately for him: Under pretty much any other circumstances, he would be “the beleaguered Brent Venables,” squarely on the hot seat with a brutal schedule looming over the second half of the season. Instead, the Sooners aced their September tests against Michigan and Auburn, resetting expectations along the way. Beyond the record, they’re basking in the glow of the nation’s No. 1 total defense and the emergence of transfer quarterback John Mateer as their first legitimate Heisman contender at the position since Lincoln Riley left for USC.

Given the uncertainty surrounding Mateer’s status (see below) and the potential for a second-half collapse, Venables is not out of the woods yet. But everything so far is pointing in the right direction, and a win on Saturday would cement OU as a contender heading into the turn.

For Texas, well, not so much. The Longhorns opened the season atop the polls for the first time in school history, fueled by what now looks like extremely regrettable hype over preseason Heisman frontrunner Arch Manning. Six weeks later, the ‘Horns are 0-2 in their first 2 games against Power 4 opponents, unranked, and staring down the reality that their would-be messiah is — for now, anyway — Just a Guy.

The good news (relatively speaking) is that the vibes in Austin in the wake of last week’s 29-21 loss at Florida are much worse than the actual product on the field. Beat Oklahoma, and all of the Longhorns’ bigger goals come back into view with a restored sense of confidence and a manageable schedule ahead. The bad news is that, at the rate it’s going, the vibes are on the verge of becoming the only discernible reality. A loss would all but definitively end Texas’ chances of returning to the CFP and deepen the crisis narrative surrounding Manning only halfway through his first season as a starter. Actually, forget the Playoff: Right now, salvaging their franchise quarterback’s self-esteem before he’s overwhelmed by the Bust Police is a high-stakes proposition in its own right.

When Oklahoma has the ball: Who is the quarterback?

In his first 4 starts as a Sooner, John Mateer accounted for 81.6% of the team’s total offense as a passer and rusher. In wins over Michigan and Auburn, his share rose to more than 90%. Before he was sidelined by an injury to his throwing hand, he was arguably the most valuable player in the country. Is he playing on Saturday, or what?

As of this writing, TBD. Optimism surged on Tuesday based on an ESPN report that Mateer is “pushing to play” against the Longhorns, less than 3 weeks removed from an apparently successful surgery. A local report added that he resumed throwing late last week and “practiced in some capacity” at the start of the week. Venables, predictably, was in no mood to add to the speculation, telling reporters “I don’t know anything about this injury,” and “when (doctors and trainers) tell me he’s ready, then I’ll know.” Translated from coach-speak: “I know, but I’ll be damned if I’m going to let YOU know.”

That leaves Texas to prepare for Mateer and sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr., whom the ‘Horns remember well from last year’s 34-3 blowout. That game was Hawkins’ 2nd start as a true freshman, and the beginning of the end of his audition to be the Sooners’ full-time starter. In his Monday press conference, Steve Sarkisian called Hawkins “a much improved player,” which is coach-speak for “the only recent film we have on him is against Kent State.” The trajectory of both teams’ seasons could hinge on how comfortably Mateer is gripping the ball when he wakes up on Saturday morning.

When Texas has the ball: Can the ‘Horns protect Arch Manning?

The Longhorns’ loss at Florida was a watershed in the “Arch Sucks” Discourse, which appears to have very quickly broken contain into a much broader hive mind than the one that usually has opinions about college quarterbacks. The confluence of social media, NIL, and — let’s be real here — sports gambling has created a vortex of haterade the likes of which we’ve rarely seen at this level, at least for a guy at such a fledgling stage of his career. Not that being the starting quarterback at Texas has ever been a low-profile gig. But people are watching and reacting to this kid’s every move with a level of scrutiny that feels, if not unprecedented, then certainly extreme.

Without a doubt, Manning is struggling. He’s indecisive. He’s erratic. He’s holding on to the ball too long and missing too many open receivers downfield. For every impressive throw (and he has had his share), there’s a groaner. He’s looked like … a gifted but green sophomore barely a month into his first season as a starter. At the moment, that’s what he is, no more or less.

He could also use some help. Texas’ issues in The Swamp began up front, with a ramshackle offensive line that was just as much to blame as the quarterback, if not more so. Manning was under duress on 26 of his 42 drop-backs, per Pro Football Focus, an egregious pressure rate of 62%. If he bore some responsibility for that number (as a rule, the QB always does), so did the line, which yielded 6 sacks, was flagged for 6 penalties, and repeatedly forced Manning to elude rushers, speed up his operation, or release the ball with a Gator defender in his face.

The left guard on that play, sophomore Connor Stroh (No. 79), was yanked for a true freshman, Nick Brooks, who played the rest of the game in the first meaningful action of his college career. PFF tagged Brooks with 9 pressures allowed and a 3.8 pass-blocking grade on 33 snaps. Texas doesn’t release an official depth chart, but if it did, there’s no name it could list in that position that would be reassuring against an OU defense that’s tied for the national lead at 4.2 sacks per game.

The surest way to keep Arch upright is to keep him out of obvious passing situations in the first place. And the surest way to do that is to force the Sooners to pay at least some token respect to stopping the run. The ground game was a nonentity against Florida — top back carried just 8 times for 11 yards before the Longhorns gave up trying in comeback mode. Manning himself was the leading rusher, accounting for 74 of the team’s 89 rushing yards (excluding sacks). Half of that total came on one 36-yard scramble. With the other half of the RB rotation, CJ Baxter listed as “doubtful” with a lingering hamstring injury, Texas is relying again on Tre Wisner, who was limited in the nonconference slate by an injury of his own. The ‘Horns badly need him to rediscover the inner workhorse who emerged during the home stretch of last year’s Playoff run.

The verdict …

It would be nice to know who’s playing quarterback for Oklahoma! The oddsmakers initially tabbed Texas as a 2.5-point favorite, before the positive headlines re: Mateer’s status shifted the line (narrowly) in favor of the Sooners. In a game that projects as a slugfest either way, his presence or absence really could be the decisive factor.

Frankly, the Longhorns’ quarterback situation is just as big a wild card until Manning gives them some reason to feel otherwise. Arch isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, but this does feel like the point of no return for salvaging a dignified debut. There’s plenty of time for him to turn it around; patience, on the other hand, is in short supply. The longer he has to listen to bromides about how broken he is, the more likely it is to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Prediction: • Texas 22, Oklahoma 18

Alabama (-3.5) at Missouri

Given that we live in (checks calendar) the 21st Century, I don’t tend to put a lot of stock in “time of possession” as an especially meaningful stat. If the gap is wide enough, though, it can be revealing, and in Missouri’s case, it tells you most of what you need to know about how thoroughly its offense has dominated the trenches.

TOP was at the top of the list of Kalen DeBoer‘s concerns this week, for good reason. The Tigers lead the nation at an astonishing 37 minutes, 27 seconds per game, the kind of number usually reserved for service academy offenses committed to draining the clock one fullback dive at a time. Exclude the opener against Central Arkansas, where possession was roughly even, and the average margin approaches 2-to-1. Since, Mizzou has finished with at least a 10+ minute advantage in all 4 wins over FBS opponents; in wins over Kansas and UMass, the gap was more than 20 minutes. As DeBoer told reporters, “If we’re not careful, you’re not gonna have the ball at all.”

The Tigers don’t run the option, but they are putting up academy-worthy numbers on the ground. Against FBS opponents, they’re averaging a national-best 310.3 yards rushing on 52 carries per game, including an emphatic, 285-yard outing in their lone SEC win over South Carolina. The star of that game, sophomore RB Ahmad Hardy, ground out 118 of his 138 yards against the Gamecocks after contact, per PFF, which is par for the course. For the season, Hardy leads the nation in rushing yards (731), yards after contact (551) and missed tackles forced (46), a category in which he also ranked among the national leaders last year as a Freshman All-American at UL-Monroe. Meanwhile, the “lightning” half of the rotation, sophomore Jamal Roberts, is averaging 7.3 yards a pop and poses a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball.

Up front, right tackle Keagen Trost — a 7th-year transfer on his fourth school — boasts the top PFF run-blocking grade of any SEC lineman by a wide margin. (Take PFF grades for what they’re worth, but the gap between Trost’s elite 90.3 run-blocking grade and the next guy on the list, Alabama’s Kadyn Proctor, is nearly 10 points.) The question mark is on the left side, where future pro Cayden Green is listed as “questionable” due to a foot injury that sidelined him for the past 2 games. Green wasn’t missed against South Carolina or UMass; against Alabama, his absence would loom a lot larger.

Then again, Bama is not as inviolable against the run as it used to be. The Tide are ranked 13th in the SEC in rushing defense and 15th in yards per carry allowed, at 4.7 yards a pop. Two very different offenses, Florida State and Georgia, gashed them for 230 yards and 227 yards rushing, respectively; and Vanderbilt popped a couple of big runs early last week before bogging down over the course of the game.

In the end, Alabama’s best defense against both UGA and Vandy was its offense, which kept the D off the field by amassing an 11-minute advantage in time of possession against the Bulldogs and a nearly 15-minute advantage against the ‘Dores. In Athens, that meant stringing together 13 3rd-down conversions, mostly from the arm of Heisman contender Ty Simpson. Against Vandy, it meant committing to the run for the first time this season behind a finally healthy Jamarion Miller. One way or another, the offense that gets it done on Saturday is the one that successfully hogs the ball.

Prediction: • Alabama 29, Missouri 24

Florida at Texas A&M (-7.5)

Did Florida just find its offense? Coming off a depressing September, the Gators looked like a different team against Texas, racking up a season-high 457 yards on 7.0 yards per snap. Most of the attention for that performance focused (for good reason) on a pair of blue-chip freshman wideouts, Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III, who between them were on the receiving end for 183 of DJ Lagway‘s 298 passing yards and both of his touchdowns. Wilson, especially, looked like an instant star in his college debut after missing the first 4 games nursing an injured foot.

But the real revelation was the ground game, a non-factor in the Gators’ losses to LSU and Miami. Sophomore Jadan Baugh was a bona fide workhorse against the Longhorns, running 27 times for 107 yards with a long gain of just 16. Florida controlled the clock (a running theme this week), converted half of its 3rd-down attempts and never trailed. Lagway was far from perfect, but for once wasn’t under constant pressure to be.

Whether a reassuring afternoon in The Swamp translates to a primetime kickoff in College Station is another question. After a shaky start in the nonconference slate, Texas A&M’s defense has been lights-out the past 2 weeks, allowing a grand total of 2 touchdowns and a single 3rd-down conversion in home wins over Auburn and Mississippi State. And even the touchdowns were a) The result of a short field following turnover against Auburn; and b) A meaningless score in garbage time of a game A&M had well in hand against the Bulldogs. There’s plenty to like about the Aggies’ offense, too, but at the rate they’re going it might be a while still before they really need it operating on all cylinders.

Prediction: Texas A&M 28, • Florida 19

Georgia (-3.5) at Auburn

No quarterback in America has absorbed more punishment lately than Jackson Arnold. And I don’t mean from disgruntled Auburn fans sliding into his DMs: Arnold’s 20 sacks this season are tied for the most in the FBS, 14 of them coming in the Tigers’ past 2 games against Oklahoma and Texas A&M alone. Historically, the absolute last thing a struggling QB who doubles as a crash test dummy in the pocket wants to see staring back at him is Georgia’s defensive line. Suddenly, though, the Dawgs’ pass rush is suffering from an alarming deficit of dudes.

Not that any front is likely to compare favorably to, say, the 2021 national championship d-line that rotated 5 future first-round picks. Even at Georgia, dudes like Jalen Carter and Travon Walker don’t grow on trees. But the current front appears to lack any notable difference-maker at all, especially when it comes to the pass rush.

The potential is there, at least according to the recruiting rankings. The production, so far, is not. The pass rush was underwhelming against Tennessee and Alabama, failing to record a sack in either game. (Technically, the Bulldogs did log an official sack against Alabama, but it was the result of dropping a wide receiver behind the line on a trick play, not the quarterback.) In 3 SEC games, PFF has the Dawgs down for a pedestrian 23% pressure rate, with the vast majority of what heat they have managed to generate coming not from the front but from inside linebackers Chris Cole, Raylen Wilson and CJ Allen as blitzers. Cole and Wilson are tied for the team lead with 7 QB pressures apiece in those games; no d-lineman, including edge rushers, has more than 2. A garbage-time takedown by reserve Nnamdi Ogboko against Kentucky was the first sack by a d-lineman on the season.

It’s early enough to chalk that up to small sample size, although the results against the Volunteers and Crimson Tide aren’t very encouraging. Joey Aguilar and Ty Simpson had time and both took advantage of it in breakout performances, combining for 651 yards and 6 touchdowns passing on 8.7 yards per attempt. The best player on Georgia’s front, nose tackle Christen Miller, is a future pro, but better suited to run-stuffing than getting after the passer. The starting edge rushers, Gabe Harris Jr. and Quintavius Johnson, have been nondescript. A couple of massively touted freshmen, Isaiah Gibson and Elijah Griffin, are still breaking in. The portal additions, Elo Modozie (Army) and Josh Horton (Miami), are well down the depth chart.

So this group is not on pace to be drafted en masse by the Philadelphia Eagles. Given the talent on hand, any given Saturday could be the one the pieces click to unlock a classic, borderline NFL-ready Kirby Smart front. In the meantime, including in the Deep South Oldest Rivalry, every extra rusher the Dawgs have to send across the line in an effort to turn up the heat leaves them a little more vulnerable on the back end, which isn’t what it once was, either.

Prediction: • Georgia 26, Auburn 17

South Carolina at LSU (-9.5)

Last year’s meeting, a 36-33 LSU win in Carolina, was one of the most eventful of the season, and turned out to be one of the most consequential. The Tigers fell behind 17-0 and trailed most of the game. They were still trailing midway through the fourth quarter when Garrett Nussmeier threw what initially looked like a door-slamming pick-6, until the touchdown was wiped off the board by a marginal roughing the quarterback penalty on the return that Gamecocks fans may still not be over. (I wouldn’t be, if I was them.)

That was the second touchdown by Carolina’s defense called back by penalty – literally, they are still writing about the refs in this game in South Carolina – and left the door open for LSU to take the lead on its next possession. The Gamecocks’ last-gasp field goal attempt from 49 yards sailed wide, sealing the Tigers’ escape.

Brian Kelly‘s relief to be 2-1 instead of 1-2 in the aftermath was palpable, but the win ultimately didn’t mean much for LSU. For South Carolina, however, the loss was enormous, eventually costing the Gamecocks a CFP bid at the end of the regular season. No wonder the “what if” lingers.

This year, neither side is under any illusion that it can afford a loss in what amounts to a Playoff elimination match. When South Carolina looked at the schedule before the season, it was banking on coming into this game undefeated, well-rested coming off an open date, and ready to hit the meat of the conference slate over the coming month. Instead, with 2 losses already on the books, the Gamecocks’ Playoff odds are hanging by a thread, win or lose, with 4 straight games on deck against teams currently ranked in the top 10. The odds already amount to a pipe dream; a 3rd loss by mid-October would snuff them out completely. 

LSU (4-1) has slightly more margin for error, but only slightly. The Tigers’ big-ticket win at Clemson in the opener is already forgettable in light of Clemson’s slide from the polls, and the offense has been morose in the meantime. The schedule still features Alabama, Texas A&M and Oklahoma, plus a trip to Vanderbilt. (Marking possibly the first time in history anyone has cited “a trip to Vanderbilt” as a foreboding one for LSU, but here we are.) If there’s anything to look forward to, a night game in Tiger Stadium against a confirmed underachiever is one they gotta have.

Prediction: LSU 23, • South Carolina 20

Arkansas at Tennessee (-11.5)

You never know how a team whose head coach just got shoved overboard midseason is going to respond. Some teams go in the tank. Just as often, though, they rally, especially when the change comes early in the season. Look at UCLA. The Bruins were so bad over the course of an 0-3 start that firing coach DeShaun Foster was a no-brainer less than a month into his second season; folks wondered (fairly) if they’d win a game. A couple weeks later, they celebrated UCLA’s biggest win in ages, over Penn State. 

The Razorbacks could not have looked much worse their last time out, a 56-13 embarrassment against Notre Dame in which Sam Pittman might as well have waved goodbye to the crowd at halftime and gotten a head start on the drive from the stadium to the deer stand. Prior to that, though, their previous losses at Ole Miss and Memphis were competitive outings that ended with Arkansas fumbling away its shot at a go-ahead touchdown in the final 2 minutes. QB Taylen Green isn’t going anywhere. How competitive the Hogs are on given Saturday hinges mainly on how badly they want to be there.

Now, just how motivated they are to turn it around under interim head coach Bobby Petrino (still an incredible combination of words to type) is another story. Petrino is more or less openly angling for the full-time job, an outcome that would inspire, uh, feelings among the locals, to put it mildly. If the locker room is on board, there’s still a shot at respectability. If not, it’s a long time till December.

Prediction: • Tennessee 37, Arkansas 24

Washington State at Ole Miss (-31.5)

Last year, Washington State boasted one of nation’s highest-scoring offenses at 36.6 ppg, and promptly got picked clean as a result. In addition to losing OC Ben Arbuckle and QB John Mateer to Oklahoma, the winter exodus from Pullman also included the head coach, leading rusher and 3 of the top 4 receivers. This year, predictably, production is in the tank. Through 5 games, the Cougars rank in the bottom 10 nationally in total offense, rushing offense, yards per play and turnover margin. In their 2 losses to date (vs. North Texas and Washington), they committed 8 giveaways, forced none, and lost by a combined 84 points.

Anyway, I know they’re adding a 9th conference game and all, but seems like it’s about time Ole Miss got a leeeetle more ambitious, schedule-wise. Under Lane Kiffin, the Rebels are 19-0 in regular-season nonconference games, none of which have come against a ranked opponent and very few of which have been close. The only one decided by single digits: A 35-27 decision over Tulsa in 2022. Ole Miss’ average margin of victory in 14 non-con games since: 33.9 points. 

Prediction: Ole Miss 44, • Washington State 16

Scoreboard

Week 6 record: 4-1 straight-up | 2-3 vs. spread
Season record: 55-11 straight-up | 25-36 vs. spread

The post Week 7 SEC Primer: QB questions loom over another make-or-break edition of the Red River Rivalry appeared first on Saturday Down South.

1. Ty Simpson, Alabama

Simpson dug such a deep hole for himself in Bama’s opening-day debacle at Florida State that it was conceivable he’d never manage to claw his way out. Barely a month later, he’s on top, making him the 5th different QB to book the penthouse suite this season. That already represents the most turnover in the top spot since these Rankings became a weekly staple in 2019, and it’s not even mid-October.

Anyway, after 2 years of the Jalen Milroe Experience, the Crimson Tide don’t need any reminders to keep their head on a swivel from one week to the next. Simpson has been lights out since the opener, averaging 10.6 yards per attempt with 11 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a Tua-esque 195.7 passer rating over the course of a 4-game winning streak. He was nearly flawless against Wisconsin; looked like a future first-rounder at Georgia; and backed that up in Week 6 in a 30-14 win over Vanderbilt. Even including the FSU game, he leads the conference in passing yards, efficiency and overall PFF grade. With surging Heisman odds, if he hasn’t restored Bama fans’ trust yet, resistance is getting more futile by the week.

Last week: 2

2. John Mateer, Oklahoma

Mateer returns to the Rankings this week after a brief hiatus, but his status in the Red River Rivalry against Texas is still very much TBD. Optimism surged on Tuesday based on an ESPN report that Mateer is “pushing to play” against the Longhorns, less than 3 weeks removed from surgery to repair an injury to his throwing hand. A local report from On3.com added that he resumed throwing late last week and “practiced in some capacity” on Monday. Brent Venables, predictably, was in no mood to add to the speculation, telling reporters “I don’t know anything about this injury,” and “when (doctors and trainers) tell me he’s ready, then I’ll know.” Translated from coachspeak: “I know, but I’ll be damned if I’m going to let YOU know.”

That leaves Texas to prepare for Mateer and sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr., whom the ‘Horns remember well from last year’s 34-3 blowout. That game was Hawkins’ second start as a true freshman, and the beginning of the end of his audition to be the Sooners’ full-time starter. In his Monday press conference, Steve Sarkisian called Hawkins “a much improved player,” which is coachspeak for “the only recent film we have on him is against Kent State.” The trajectory of both teams’ seasons could hinge on how comfortably Mateer is gripping the ball when he wakes up on Saturday morning.

Last week: n/a

3. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt

Blink and you missed it, but for a fleeting moment there it looked like the Commodores were on the verge of humbling Alabama for the second year in a row. They already led late in the first quarter, 7-0, courtesy of a breakaway touchdown run on their opening possession. Their second possession opened with Pavia breaking off a 36-yard run, followed by a pair of chain-moving completions to set up 1st-and-10 at the Bama 13-yard line. At that point, the wind was squarely at Vandy’s back. Then, just as abruptly, it shifted the other way.

That was Pavia’s first lost fumble of the season, and while it by no means the end of the upset bid it was a turning point. With Alabama’s offense controlling the clock, Vanderbilt only got 6 more bites at the apple, only 1 of which resulted in points as a result of a short field; the other 5 yielded 3 punts, a turnover on downs, and a 2nd red-zone giveaway in the 4th quarter that was even costlier (not to mention uglier) than the first.

Yeah, you’re not going to make it out of Tuscaloosa with your perfect record intact after coming up empty twice inside the 20-yard line. It’s debatable how much cashing in those opportunities would have altered the course of a game ultimately decided by 16 points, but by failing to cash them in, the ‘Dores left themselves with no chance to perform the Victory Formation Pavia practiced in pregame.

Last week: 1

4. Gunner Stockton, Georgia

Stockton is a little bigger, and probably has at least a slightly bigger arm. Otherwise, pretty much the only difference I clock so far between him and Stetson Bennett IV is the number on the jersey.

And even the jersey is only off by one digit! Kirby Smart is obviously not averse to recruiting 5-star pocket gods — the next one is in the pipeline for 2026 — but the man has a type.

Last week: 4⬌

5. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

Ole Miss fans have embraced Chambliss’ emergence by adopting the flag of the Caribbean island nation of Trinidad and Tobago. All in good fun, but it begs the question: How many of them are under the impression that Trinidad, an obscure D-II transfer who seemed to come out of nowhere a few weeks ago, is from Trinidad? As Lane Kiffin went out of his way to clarify this week, Chambliss is from Grand Rapids, Michigan. “He’s been to one island in his life on a field trip when he was little, to Mackinac Island in Michigan,” Kiffin said. “So he’s never been around blue water, let alone sand and an island.” As long as he’s accounting for 400 yards per game, he could from Mars, for all they care. He’s well on his way to becoming Ole Miss’ next 3,000-yard passer.

Last week: 3

6. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M

Last week, my thoughts about Reed were “squishy.” This week: Squish squish. Saturday’s 31-9 win over Mississippi State was typical. On one hand, he accounted for 3 touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing) en route to a comfortable win in a conference game. On the other, the Aggies dominated the line of scrimmage so thoroughly they could have just as easily pounded the Bulldogs into submission with the quarterback on standby. A&M piled up 300 yards rushing, allowed a single 3rd-down conversion on defense, and finished with a 16-and-a-half-minute advantage in time of possession. Reed was unbothered in the pocket (2 QB pressures on 24 drop-backs, per PFF) yet finished 1-for-5 on attempts of 20+ air yards.

Put it this way: Where the oddsmakers see a potential Heisman candidate at the wheel of a top-10 team, the stat sheet reveals a guy lingering in the bottom half of the conference in efficiency (8th), EPA (11th), Total QBR (12th) and overall PFF grade (13th). Eventually, one half of that equation is almost certainly going to prove more durable than the other. The question is which one?

Last week: 5

7. Taylen Green, Arkansas

You never know how a team whose head coach just got shoved overboard midseason is going to respond. Some teams go in the tank. Just as often, though, they rally, especially when the change comes early in the season. Look at UCLA. The Bruins were so bad over the course of an 0-3 start that firing coach DeShaun Foster was a no-brainer less than a month into his 2nd season; folks wondered (fairly) if they’d win a game. A couple weeks later, they celebrated UCLA’s biggest win in ages, over Penn State. (Shout out to former Vols QB Nico Iamaleava!)

As dismal as they were their last time out, the Razorbacks are not in nearly such dire straits after dumping Sam Pittman as UCLA. Green’s presence is the main reason. Unlike Iamaleava, who prior to Saturday looked like a straight-up bust as a Bruin, Green has largely held up his end of the bargain even in defeat. He had the Hogs in position to win at the end of their losses to Ole Miss and Memphis – both shootouts decided on lost fumbles by a teammate – and still leads the nation in total offense. If nothing else, he has NFL Draft stock to consider in his final year of eligibility, too. Like Iamaleava, he might be the most intriguing player on the field on any given Saturday.

Now, whether Arkansas fans are actually rooting for the Hogs to turn it around under interim head coach Bobby Petrino (still an incredible combination of words to type) is another story. Petrino is more or less openly angling for the full-time job, an outcome that would inspire, uh, feelings among the base, to put it mildly. But for better or worse, Green gives him a chance.

Last week: 6

8. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee

Both of Tennessee’s first 2 SEC games were decided in overtime, with the twist that the Vols arguably felt better about Aguilar’s prospects following the loss (against Georgia, in a game they should have won) than they did after the win (at Mississippi State, in a game they very well could have lost). With Alabama on deck in Week 8, the last thing they need Saturday against a lame-duck version of Arkansas is more drama. The Hogs’ secondary is ripe for a barbecue.

Last week: 7

9. Beau Pribula, Missouri

Pribula won over the locals more or less immediately, followed by certain members of the sicko community who managed to catch glimpses of Mizzou’s 5-0 start. (Hand raised out of professional obligation.) For everyone else, he remains a relative unknown due to make his formal introduction this weekend against Alabama. Among that audience, there might be one group watching especially intently: Deflated Penn State fans beginning to wonder if the Nittany Lions kept the wrong quarterback. 

Not that there was any question about it last December, when Pribula portaled out of State College just ahead of Penn State’s Playoff run. The only controversy at the time was over the timing of the winter portal window, which cost the Lions their backup QB while their season was still very much in progress. (An issue the NCAA has since addressed.) And the only person who imagined Pribula overtaking Drew Allar, an entrenched face-of-the-program type who boasted a 21-5 record over 2 seasons as a starter, would have been the inevitable message board crank who’s always in favor of benching the starting QB on principle. 

Lately, though, their respective arcs over the first half of this season have a lot of Lions watchers feeling kinda cranky. Pribula is not (yet) a star, but his stock is stable and rising at Mizzou on an offense that leads the nation in rushing vs. FBS opponents. On paler, he’s outpacing the slumping Allar across the board. Allar, meanwhile, is one of the long list of would-be Heisman candidates whose campaign is in freefall, statistically and otherwise. PSU’s Week 5 loss to Oregon at home was yet another bitter disappointment against a top opponent; its Week 6 flop at a lame-duck version of UCLA was an embarrassment that’s going to haunt them the rest of the season. He still can’t win the big one, and suddenly he’s losing random ones, too? Midway through one of the most anticipated seasons in ages, the Lions are unranked, their Playoff chances all but dead in the water.

It doesn’t help anything, but under the circumstances a little revisionist history is hard to resist. An upset bid against Bama is Pribula’s chance to make it impossible. If he succeeds in winning the kind of game his old team is increasingly defined by losing – on his first try! – it’s going to be one more question James Franklin has to answer that he wishes he didn’t.

Last week: 8

10. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

Sellers has not been nearly as disappointing as some of the other preseason Heisman frontrunners on this list, but between injury (vs. Vanderbilt), inconsistency (Missouri) and subdued play-calling (Virginia Tech, Kentucky), he’s yet to put together a complete game, either. Coming off an open date, he has another opportunity at LSU in a game that might as well be advertised as a Playoff Eliminator. Sellers was on pace for a breakout performance against the Tigers in 2024 before an injury cut his afternoon short in an eventual loss at the gun. Against a much improved LSU this time around, the Gamecocks need their bell cow at full speed for 60 minutes.

Last week: 9

11. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Speaking of a quarterback who needs a complete game. Nussmeier’s stock has been on the decline since the Tigers’ season-opening win at Clemson, a defensively-driven effort that doesn’t look nearly as impressive in light of Clemson’s slide since. He’s fallen out of first-round projections, and ranks next-to-last among SEC starters vs. FBS opponents in yards per attempt and efficiency. Grumbles about the offense peaked in a Week 5 loss at Ole Miss and continued through an open date. The silver lining for LSU: At 4-1, all of the Tigers’ goals are still on the table. The silver lining for Nussmeier, personally: At least Bryce Underwood changed his mind, or he’d have almost certainly have Nussmeier’s job.

Last week: 10

12. DJ Lagway, Florida

Lagway followed his 2 worst games as a Gator, 5-alarm losses at LSU and Miami, with his best game as a Gator in a 29-21 win over Texas. The best part, aside from snapping a 3-game slide and salvaging his head coach’s job for another week: His leading receivers against the Longhorns were a pair of blue-chip freshmen, Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III, still just getting their feet wet. Wilson and Brown announced their arrival by combining for 9 receptions, 183 yards and 2 touchdowns (both by Wilson) on more than 20 yards per catch against one of the league’s most respected secondaries. (Although it’s worth noting that the Longhorns’ best cover corner, Malik Muhammad, was sidelined due to injury.) Now, saving Billy Napier‘s bacon is just a matter of getting them to pull that off 5 or 6 more times against equally stiff competition.

Last week: 14

13. Arch Manning, Texas

What’s wrong with Arch? Is he broken? Is he hurt? Is he just green? Or is he, like … just kinda bad?

That all depends. How long you got, and how generous are you feeling?

To hear it from his critics — and they’re certainly loud enough — you might get the impression Manning couldn’t throw the ball into a lake. That’s an exaggeration, obviously, but not by much. For every memorable throw he’s made (and there have been more than a few), Manning has whiffed on another, including some real groaners. And what downfield success he has managed has come with a whiff of both quantity over quality and too little, too late.

Per PFF, his 13 attempts of 20+ air yards against Florida were the most by an FBS quarterback in any game this season; the fact that the completed 5 of them paled next to the fact that 7 of them clanged to the turf, and another was picked off. He is missing a lot. And by the time he starts connecting, it feels like an act of desperation. All 4 of Texas’ touchdowns in losses to Ohio State and Florida have come with the ‘Horns already trailing by double digits.

In response to the backlash, Arch’s defenders were quick to point out after Saturday’s loss that, for all his liabilities, the worst was his offensive line. Also true enough. The Longhorns fell behind early, abandoned the run, and left both the overmatched front and their erratic quarterback to fend for themselves in comeback mode, with predictable results. Per PFF, Manning was under duress on 26 of his 42 drop-backs against the Gators — an egregious pressure rate of 62%. In addition to 6 sacks allowed, Texas linemen were collectively flagged for 6 penalties. PFF charged true freshman Nick Brooks, thrust into the first meaningful action of his career following an injury to starting left guard Connor Stroh, with 9 pressures allowed and a 3.8 pass-blocking grade (out of 100, to be clear). Not that Stroh (No. 79 below) was faring much better before his exit.

Unlike in the Ohio State game, most of Manning’s downfield attempts against Florida came with the pass rush bearing down; a couple of his wildest throws came with Gators quite literally in his face.

Then again, while his shorthanded o-line was undeniably a wreck, Arch didn’t do himself any favors with his languid pocket presence. Official Rankings policy dictates that sacks are a QB stat, and Manning bears some responsibility for his own self-preservation. By PFF’s stopwatch, he averaged 3.58 seconds per drop-back in The Swamp, the most time for any FBS quarterback in Week 6 with at least 20 reps. (On drop-backs that resulted in pressure, it was 3.90 seconds.) On more than 85% of those snaps, he had at least 2.5 seconds, again the highest rate in the country for the weekend.

That was consistent with his season averages. For the year, Manning’s 3.24 seconds per drop-back currently leads the SEC; he’s getting (or taking) at least 2.5 seconds on an FBS-high 72.2% of those reps; and he’s averaging an SEC-high 12.0 yards per target. That could not possibly be a bigger departure from the screen-heavy attack operated last year by Quinn Ewers, who could not get the ball out of his hands fast enough.

At the end of the day, though, you don’t need a stopwatch or to wade that deep into the analytical weeds to recognize a struggling young quarterback when you see one. Manning was hardly sharper on Saturday when he was kept clean than he was under duress. Both interceptions were served up confidently from a clean pocket, as was another shoulda-been pick rifled directly into the hands of a Florida linebacker so stunned to become the intended receiver he failed to bring it down. The first INT was a late-and-lofty lob that hung in the air just long enough for a trailing safety to close the gap on a wideout who initially appeared to have him beat. The 2nd INT was a high-and-wide dart straight to the numbers of a waiting safety stationed 8 yards behind Manning’s intended target.

Look, this entry is much too long already for a full reckoning with the state of the “Arch Sucks” Discourse. He doesn’t suck. His biggest problem right now, and for the foreseeable future, is the hype that preceded him. If he had a different last name, or was playing for almost any team other than the one that started out ranked No. 1 in the preseason polls, or if some percentage of the rapidly growing number of sports gamblers in this country hadn’t been convinced to bet the kids’ tuition on him winning the Heisman, Arch would be … fine. Hardly worth noticing one way or the other. Not great, not hopeless. Certainly not a bust (yet). Just another gifted-but-green sophomore who needs a little time.

Eligibility-wise, he’s got it. In the court of public opinion, it’s running thinner by the week.

Last week: 11

14. Jackson Arnold, Auburn

Hugh Freeze vowed to spend Auburn’s open date “re-evaluating” everything” about the offense following a couple of dismal outings against Oklahoma and Texas A&M to open SEC play. We’ll see the results this weekend against Georgia. If Arnold continues to drop back twice as often as he’s handing off with the game still within reach, then it’s safe to say the only thing Freeze reevaluated is whether he still has any interest in his beleaguered QB remaining upright. And the answer was “no.”

Last week: 12

15. Blake Shapen, Mississippi State

State isn’t running the Air Raid anymore, but it’s still dinking and dunking. Not that Shapen doesn’t have the arm: His best throw in the Bulldogs’ loss at Texas A&M, a 44-yard touchdown strike to Brenen Thompson, was a beauty. The only problem was it came in garbage time of a game in which the offense had generated no juice whatsoever up to that point. Shapen’s other 14 completions the night — that’s completions, not attempts — netted just 6.9 yards a pop and 3 first downs.

Last week: 13

16. Cutter Boley, Kentucky

Boley didn’t stand much chance at Georgia, but he acquitted himself well under the circumstances — especially considering the circumstances called on him to drop back 45 times in a game in which Kentucky’s win probability never exceeded 10%, according to ESPN. His most impressive sequence was a 2-minute drill with the Wildcats trailing 21-7 and looking to narrow the gap going into halftime. Boley started the drive 6-for-7 for 47 yards, moving the ball inside the UGA 10-yard line with enough time for a shot at the end zone or, at worst, a chip-shot field goal. The shot at the end zone sailed well out of bounds. No problem. Then the chip-shot field goal sailed wide of the uprights. Big problem. Thus ended Kentucky’s only sustained drive before garbage time, which officially commenced when the Cats fumbled the ball away on the first possession of the second half.

Last week: 16⬌

The post SEC QB Power Rankings, Week 7: Penn State had to let Beau Pribula go, but he can still make them regret it appeared first on Saturday Down South.

We need to talk about Arch

Among the many problems plaguing Arch Manning right now, the single biggest problem remains the hype that preceded him.

Imagine watching an inexperienced, 3.5-star recruit named Arch Everyman struggle on the road against the likes of Ohio State and Florida. Are you thinking “what the heck is wrong with this kid? Is this kid hurt?” Probably not. Probably you’re thinking something like, “let’s give this kid some time.” He’s not even halfway through his first season as a starter. And it’s not like it’s all bad. Size, arm, mobility — he has the tools. There are glimpses of real potential, when it all comes together. Live with the growing pains, and who knows? In a year or two, the finished product might be worth the wait.

But of course, Texas did not bet the ranch on Arch Everyman, and is certainly not in wait-and-see mode after opening atop the preseason polls. The last thing the Longhorns are in the mood for is a lecture about patience. What were those 2 years waiting for Manning to ripen behind the increasingly uninspiring Quinn Ewers, if not patience? Oddsmakers were not preaching patience when they installed Arch as the preseason favorite with the best odds to win the Heisman. Pro scouts were not preaching patience when they projected him as the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft, even after his own family insisted he had no intention of leaving school early. National brands were not preaching patience when they inked him to endorsement deals worth millions of dollars. I was not preaching patience when I touted him as the SEC’s most valuable player. (OK, so that was as much about the absence of established stars across the league as it was about my confidence in Arch, alright? Still, I plead guilty.) Sacrificing what was supposed to be a prime title shot for a round of Normal Sophomore Stuff was never part of the bargain.

Whether that’s entirely fair to Manning is debatable, but also largely beside the point. The Longhorns are 0-2 vs. Power 4 opponents and in the midst of one of the most rapid declines on record for a preseason No. 1, tumbling out of the AP poll altogether barely a month removed from topping it. Their Playoff odds are hanging by a thread with Oklahoma on deck and 3 more currently ranked teams (Vanderbilt, Georgia and Texas A&M) still on the docker. After 2 consecutive seasons in the CFP semifinals with a quarterback much of the fan base suspected was holding them back, they’re on the verge of being eliminated from the CFP race before mid-October.

It is true that, as always, a slumping QB is a convenient scapegoat for a team without much else to hang its hat on. Texas struggled in its 29-21 loss at Florida in all phases. The defense, ostensibly a strength before Saturday, was a wreck in The Swamp, allowing 457 yards, 22 first downs and 29 points to a Gators offense that had managed just 33 points total in its first 3 games against FBS opponents. Manning’s counterpart, DJ Lagway, actually looked like a blue-chip quarterback coming into his own in arguably the best outing of his career. Coming off a couple of miserable performances against LSU and Miami, Lagway turned in a career-high 94.9 QBR rating, best of the weekend by an SEC starter.

More relevantly where Manning was concerned, there was the offensive line, an even bigger wreck. Altogether, Arch was under some kind of duress on 25 of his 42 drop-backs against the Gators, per Pro Football Focus — an egregious pressure rate just shy of 60%. In addition to 6 sacks, Texas linemen were flagged for 6 penalties while failing to generate any semblance of a push on the ground. The Longhorns effectively abandoned the run in the first half, leaving both the overmatched front and their erratic quarterback to fend for themselves in comeback mode. PFF charged true freshman Nick Brooks, thrust into the first meaningful action of his career following an injury to starting left guard Connor Stroh, with 8 pressures allowed and a flat 0.0 pass-blocking grade.

It’s also true that, given half a chance, Manning offered a couple of glimpses of why he was so touted in the first place. If your only window into his performance was the negativity, schadenfreude and outright haterade online, you might get the impression this guy is so broken he couldn’t throw the ball into a lake right now. Actually, there’s plenty of evidence otherwise. For the season, Manning is a respectable 15-for-32 on attempts of 20+ air yards, with roughly half of his total passing output coming on those completions; that includes 5 downfield connections against Florida, tied for the most of any FBS quarterback in Week 6. The one for the highlight was the second of his 2 touchdown passes, a 38-yard dime to Ryan Wingo on which he eluded the initial pressure and reset to deliver one of his more impressive strikes of the year.

One thing Arch cannot be accused of is lacking the juice to let it rip. It’s the other charges that tend to stick.

In fact, I would argue that the hits only make the misses that much more galling. In real time, the highlights have not mattered nearly as much as the long bouts of frustration. Although there was more scoring in The Swamp, the way the game unfolded felt similar to the opener at Ohio State, when Manning pulled out of a sustained funk just in time to uncork a series of tasty throws in a futile rally in the 4th quarter — too little, too late except to salvage a passable stat line. Again on Saturday, all 3 of Texas’ touchdowns against Florida came with the Longhorns already trailing by 2 scores, serving only to prolong the suspense in a game that was never really in doubt after halftime. (Excluding their opening possession of the game, the ‘Horns didn’t touch the ball again with the score within single digits until their last-ditch possession with less than a minute to play and no timeouts.) In between, their other 10 possessions yielded 6 punts, 4 3-and-outs, 2 interceptions and slapstick endings to both halves.

Manning’s reputation for chronic inaccuracy at this point might be slightly exaggerated due to the intense scrutiny on every ball that leaves his hands, but only slightly. The label is well-earned. For every memorable throw he’s made, he’s whiffed on another, often by missing his target in painfully obvious fashion. The main reason he’s managed to assemble a convincing highlight reel of downfield connections is simply that he’s taken so many shots. Per PFF, his 13 attempts of 20+ air yards were the most by an FBS quarterback in any game this season; the fact that the completed 5 of them paled next to the fact that seven of them clanged to the turf, and another was picked off. He is missing a lot.

The pressure, obviously, does not help. Unlike in the Ohio State game, most of Manning’s downfield attempts against Florida came with the pass rush bearing down; a couple of his wildest throws came with Gators quite literally in his face. Then again, while his shorthanded o-line was a liability, Arch didn’t do himself any favors with his languid pocket presence. As a rule, sacks are a QB stat, and Saturday was no exception. By PFF’s stopwatch, Manning averaged 3.58 seconds per drop-back, the most time for any FBS quarterback for the weekend with at least 20 reps. (On drop-backs that resulted in sacks, it was 3.50 seconds.) On more than 85% of those snaps, he had at least 2.5 seconds, again the highest rate in the country.

That was consistent with his season averages. For the year, Manning’s 3.24 seconds per drop-back currently leads the SEC; he’s getting (or taking) at least 2.5 seconds on an FBS-high 72.2% of those reps; and he’s averaging an SEC-high 12.0 yards per target. That could not possibly be a bigger departure from the screen-heavy attack operated last year by Quinn Ewers, who could not get the ball out of his hands fast enough.

But you don’t need a stopwatch or to wade that deep into the analytical weeds to recognize a flailing quarterback when you see one. Manning was hardly sharper on Saturday when he was kept clean than he was under duress. Both of his interceptions were served up confidently from a clean pocket, as was another shoulda-been pick rifled directly into the hands of a Florida linebacker so stunned to become the intended receiver he failed to bring it down. The first INT was a late-and-lofty lob that hung in the air just long enough for a trailing safety to close the gap on a wideout who initially appeared to have him beat. (Credit where it’s due on that one to Gators DB Devin Moore for the athleticism to track down an ill-advised, under-thrown ball.) The second INT was a high-and-wide dart straight to the numbers of a waiting safety stationed 8 yards behind Manning’s intended target.

Texas’ final chance with the ball was a fitting end. The Longhorns, trailing 29-21, took over at their own 31-yard line with 55 seconds remaining, no timeouts, and an opportunity to force overtime. On first down, Manning took the snap, surveyed the field, attempted to spin out of a collapsing pocket, and took a shot hard enough to pop his helmet off as he was slammed down for a 12-yard loss. By rule, Manning was forced to sit out the next play due to the lost helmet, which also cost the Longhorns a 10-second run-off. On 2nd down, backup Matthew Caldwell came on for his first and only meaningful play to date in a UT uniform, an accurate strike to Ryan Wingo that gained 26 yards and a first down; a hands-to-the-face penalty against Florida tacked on 15 more, moving the ‘Horns across midfield as Texas fans collectively screamed “whoever this guy is, leave him in!” at their televisions. Instead, Arch trotted back out to run the final 3 plays: An incomplete pass, followed by Manning scrambling into what amounted to a game-ending sack, culminating in a chaotic effort to spike the ball just as the clock expired.

Hopefully it goes without saying that no amount of wishcasting is going to make Caldwell, a journeyman on his 4th school in 5 years — previous stops: Jacksonville State, Gardner-Webb and Troy — an actual threat to overtake the multimillion-dollar face of the program on the depth chart. Steve Sarkisian never wavered on Ewers when the base was clamoring for Manning, and that had the makings of a real controversy. Arch Everyman might have to look over his shoulder; the very presence of an obscurity like Caldwell as QB2 is testament enough to the fact that Arch Manning never has to. Texas is too deeply invested in his potential, financially and otherwise.

It should also go without saying that the Longhorns were not investing in a name on the back of the jersey. The verdict is not in after 7 career starts. There is still time for Manning to correct course, come into his own, and make the overreaction to his rocky start look as premature and overwrought as the preseason hype does right now. But with every setback, the growing curve gets a little steeper while the backlash only gets more intense. The more the rest of the world is convinced that his last name is all that’s keeping him on the field, the bigger the burden it’s going to be.

Georgia: No rush

Watching Georgia’s routine, 35-14 win over Kentucky, I found myself asking, “where are the dudes?” How did UGA’s vaunted defensive line get so ordinary, so fast?

Not that any front is likely to compare favorably to, say, the 2021 national championship d-line that rotated 5 future first-round picks. Even at Georgia, dudes like Jalen Carter and Travon Walker don’t grow on trees. But the current front appears to lack any notable difference-maker at all, especially when it comes to the pass rush.

The potential is there, at least according to the recruiting rankings. The production, so far, is not. The pass rush was underwhelming against Tennessee and Alabama, failing to record a sack in either game. (Technically, the Bulldogs did log an official sack against Alabama, but it was the result of dropping a wide receiver behind the line on a trick play, not the quarterback.) In 3 SEC games, PFF has the Dawgs down for a pedestrian 23% pressure rate, the vast majority of what heat they have managed to generate coming not from the front but from inside linebackers Chris Cole, Raylen Wilson and CJ Allen as blitzers. Cole and Wilson are tied for the team lead with 7 QB pressures apiece in those games; no d-lineman, including edge defenders, has more than 2. A garbage-time takedown by reserve Nnamdi Ogboko against Kentucky was the first sack by a d-lineman on the season.

It’s early enough to chalk that up to small sample size, although the results against the Volunteers and Crimson Tide aren’t very encouraging. Joey Aguilar and Ty Simpson both had time and both took advantage of it in breakout performances, combining for 651 yards and 6 touchdowns passing on 8.7 yards per attempt. The best player on the front, nose tackle Christen Miller, is a future pro but better suited to run-stuffing than getting after the passer. The starting edge rushers, Gabe Harris Jr. and Quintavius Johnson, have been nondescript. A couple of massively touted freshmen, Isaiah Gibson and Elijah Griffin, are still breaking in. The portal additions, Elo Modozie (Army) and Josh Horton (Miami), are well down the depth chart.

So this group is not on pace to be drafted en masse by the Philadelphia Eagles. Given the talent on hand, any given Saturday could be the one the pieces click together to unlock a classic, borderline NFL-ready Kirby Smart front. In the meantime, every extra rusher the Dawgs have to send across the line in an effort to turn up the heat leaves them a little more vulnerable on the back end, which isn’t what it once was, either.

Dude of the Week: Florida WR Dallas Wilson

Wilson, a 6-3, 213-pound true freshman, made a splash in the spring but was MIA in Florida’s first 4 games due to a foot injury. His debut in the Gators’ win over Texas was worth the wait. Making up for lost time, Wilson hauled in a 9-yard reception on his first college snap and kept on going, finishing with 6 catches, 111 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an instant reputation as a specimen.

Somehow, Wilson juuuust missed the cut for 5-star status according to 247Sports’ composite rating, landing on one side of the line while classmate Vernell Brown III fell on the other. For an offense that was fairly desperate to upgrade its talent level at wideouts, it’s a distinction without a difference. Between them, Wilson and Brown combined for 183 of Florida’s 284 receiving yards against the Longhorns on 20.3 yards per catch.

Dud of the Week: Texas’ Ground Game

Arch Manning takes the blame for the stench emanating from Texas’ offense this season, and deserves his fair share of it. But the Longhorns’ inability and/or unwillingness to run the ball made his job significantly harder. With CJ Baxter on the shelf for the second week in a row, Tre Wisner was the only running back who touched the ball, logging a grand total of 8 carries for 11 yards.

Notebook

1.) Last year, Vanderbilt pulled of one of the most monumental upsets in SEC history with an incredible 24-minute edge in time of possession. This year? Not so much. Alabama flipped the script in a 30-14 win in Tuscaloosa, hogging the ball for nearly 15 minutes more than Vandy while limiting the ‘Dores to just 53 snaps.

Another notable departure from last year’s game, which Vanderbilt led from start to finish: The Commodores were forced to play from behind down the stretch, freeing Bama’s pass rush to disrupt Diego Pavia in a second-half shutout. Pavia got off to a good start, but between his limitations under pressure and a pair of crucial red-zone turnovers — a fumble in the first half, followed by an interception in the second — it one of his worst days in a Vandy uniform.

2.) In the portions of the game when Vanderbilt’s offense was clicking it was fun to watch. My favorite play design of the weekend was a nifty little shovel pass that saw Pavia fake a handoff to RB Sedrick Alexander going one direction, only for Alexander to reverse field to receive the shovel going the other way.

The Commodores ran this twice on a 2nd-quarter touchdown drive, both times successfully. The first time (see above) gained 15 yards to extend the drive on 3rd-and-10. The second time, they simply flipped the direction to finish the drive in the end zone.

3.) There wasn’t very much to the video of Pavia jawing with some Alabama fans on the way to the locker room after the defeat. But I was entertained by one of his Vandy teammates shouting at the fans, “you’re talking to kids! You’re talking to kids!” Pavia, notoriously, is 24 years old.

4.) What in the world was Billy Napier doing on Florida’s final possession? The Gators led late, 29-21, with a fresh set of downs inside the 2-minute warning. Texas, having burned all 3 timeouts on Florida’s previous possession, had no way to stop the clock. So why did Napier call a timeout?

As he explained after the game, the clock was already stopped due to left tackle Austin Barber losing his helmet on the previous play, and wasn’t set to start again until the next snap. (Losing a helmet inside of 2 minutes carries a 10-second run-off, which Texas declined, thereby stopping the clock.) Napier, wanting one of his best o-linemen in the game on a crucial 3rd down, opted to spend a timeout to allow Barber to stay on the field. Incredibly, the guy getting paid $7.4 million a year to understand this stuff had a better grasp of the rule than his online critics. Florida still lost a yard on the ensuing play, forcing a punt back to Texas for one final drive.

5.) The injury bug bit Texas hard on both sides of the ball in its loss to Florida, nowhere more so than in the absence of top cornerback Malik Muhammad, a game-day scratch. With Muhammad looking on, the Gators picked on his understudies, sophomore Kobe Black and true freshman Graceson Littleton, completing 6-0f-7 targets for 153 yards at their expense, per PFF. Both of Dallas Wilson’s touchdowns were charged to Black in his first career start in Muhammad’s place.

6. Auburn and Mississippi State are not the most formidable offenses, but Texas A&M’s defense is off to a nearly perfect start in conference play on 3rd down. Across both games, A&M held the Tigers and Bulldogs to a single 3rd-down conversion on a combined 23 attempts.

7.) Oklahoma QB Michael Hawkins Jr. looked the part in his first start of the season, a 44-0 romp over Kent State. (Thank you, Sooners, for preserving a KSU cover at -44.5.) What does that mean for this weekend’s date against Texas in the Red River Showdown? Not a dang thing. Hawkins is tentatively expected to start again against the Longhorns in place of the injured John Mateer, who has not been ruled out but remains a long shot.

Moment of Zen of the Week

The post Monday Down South: Arch Manning needs all the patience he can get. Texas is running out appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Game of the Week: Vanderbilt at Alabama (-10.5)

The stakes: The Biggest Game in Vanderbilt History? Sure, let’s go ahead and call it that. Why not?

It’s certainly the biggest game anyone can remember. If you’re a historian, or well north of a hundred years old, you might point out that Vandy was a perennial contender in one of the forerunners of the SEC, the Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Conference, and on at least a couple of occasions in that era might have had an argument as the best team in America. (At least, according to some guy crunching the numbers many decades later.) Surely those teams played in some “big games” by the standards of the time. The Commodores occasionally appeared (although rarely finished) in the AP poll throughout the 1930s and ’40s, and played a handful of games in that span in which both teams were ranked. Those collisions must have felt like big ones on those particular Saturdays.

But you gotta go way, way back, is the point, to an era before television, much less College GameDay. In the past 70 years, Vanderbilt has played a grand total of 4 games as a ranked team vs. a ranked opponent. One of those was a 1956 loss to Ole Miss. Two others came in 2008, when the ‘Dores crept into the polls on the strength of a 4-0 start, beat No. 13 Auburn to improve to 5-0, then went on to lose 6 of their next 7; they were still clinging to a No. 22 ranking a couple weeks later in a loss at No. 10 Georgia. The most recent was last October, when No. 25 Vandy dropped a 27-24 decision to No. 5 Texas in Nashville.

There was some hoopla leading up to the 2008 Auburn game, mostly in the “Look at you, Vandy!” vein. GameDay was on campus for that one, too, a visit immortalized by the crowd sign that read “YOU PEOPLE ARE BLOCKING THE LIBRARY.” At that point, Vanderbilt was a quarter-century removed from its last winning season, and the idea of a Vandy outfit that was not abjectly terrible was a fun early-season subplot. They beat Auburn that day by 1 point, 14-13. But I remember 2008 well enough to confirm that no one was under any illusion that team was actually good. Those ‘Dores were pure scrappers who struggled to complete a forward pass and owed their fast start almost exclusively to a lopsided and unsustainable turnover margin. Staying power? Not a chance. They eked out a 7-6 finish, got a pat on the head for ending the bowl drought, and were quickly forgotten.

The 2025 ‘Dores do not look like scrappers. So far, anyway, they look good. Like, legitimately good good, a transfer portal-era miracle. They’re 5-0, up to No. 16 in the AP poll, and boast the widest point differential in the SEC. In Week 2, they emptied out the opposing stadium in a dominant second half at Virginia Tech. In Week 3, they opened conference play with a 31-7 blowout at then-No. 11 South Carolina. A 70-21 massacre of Georgia State in Week 4 represented the most points scored by any Vandy outfit against any opponent in 107 years. Last week’s “routine,” 55-35 win over Utah State left Vanderbilt — again, for emphasis: Vanderbilt — as the nation’s No. 1 scoring offense vs. FBS opponents for the month of September at 50.0 points per game. Irrepressible QB Diego Pavia, an obscure, unpolished upstart a year ago, is now a burgeoning Heisman candidate who leads the SEC in touchdowns, pass efficiency and Total QBR.

Above and beyond all of that, of course, this version of Vanderbilt arrives in Tuscaloosa with big-game cred against the likes of Alabama that only comes with having actually beaten Alabama. Not that last year’s monumental upset over the Tide was a “big game” in anyone’s mind except the Commodores’. It was a once-in-a-generation stunner genuinely no one saw or could have seen coming. Bama was freshly minted as the nation’s No. 1 team coming off a euphoric win over Georgia; Vandy was … well, Vandy, a nondescript outfit riding a 10-game SEC losing streak. The ‘Dores were only a couple weeks removed from an embarrassing loss to a team that went on to finish in last place in the Sun Belt Conference’s East Division. In this column, I wrote, “It’s probably giving Vandy a little too much credit to classify this as a ‘trap game,'” and “even a version of this (Alabama) team running on fumes is capable of covering a 3-touchdown spread.” Life comes at you fast.

A year later, the only similarity is that Bama is once again coming off a euphoric win over Georgia. Both teams’ trajectories were altered by The Upset in ways that seem more obvious in retrospect than they did in real time. It really was a turning point: Not only for Vandy’s reputation as a doormat, but also — probably even more so — for the Crimson Tide’s rep as a week-in, week-out machine that can be trusted to never play down to the competition. Nick Saban‘s Tide would never, could never lose that game. Kalen DeBoer‘s Tide did, and have gone on to lose several more since in equally demoralizing fashion. Last week’s triumph in Athens reestablished that, yes, Alabama is still a contender. It did not change the fact that, at this point, its credibility is only as good as its last game.

Meanwhile, amid the pandemonium that ensued after last year’s win over Bama, Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea described the scene as “not a finish point, but a hell of an arrival.” It didn’t really appear that way initially; the ‘Dores did go on to finish a game over .500 with a win in the Birmingham Bowl, but not before losing 4vof their last 5 in SEC play in typical Vandy fashion.

Nationally, The Upset was only invoked for what it said about Alabama, not about Vanderbilt. So far, though, this year’s team is on course to vindicate Lea’s vision. If it’s too soon to call them SEC and Playoff contenders in their own right, it’s also too soon to rule it out. (For what it’s worth, ESPN’s Football Power Index estimates Vandy’s Playoff chances at 42.5%, the 11th-best odds in the country.) They’ve arrived in the conversation, if nothing else. Saturday we find out if they have staying power. If so, it means the games are only going to keep getting bigger.

When Alabama has the ball: Can Vandy turn up the heat on Ty Simpson?

Florida State harassed Simpson on a regular basis in the opener, making him look erratic, indecisive and generally in over his head in his first career start. In the weeks since, he’s been one of the best-protected quarterbacks in America. In last week’s win at Georgia, Simpson finished without a stain, facing pressure on just 9 of his 41 drop-backs, per Pro Football Focus. He responded by putting on a clinic, operating confidently in pristine pockets like a seasoned vet. He was 21-for-30 passing for 252 yards and 2 touchdowns when kept clean, and that stat line would have looked a lot better if not for a couple of drops on 2 of this best throws of the night. All 11 of his touchdown passes this season have come from clean pockets.

Vanderbilt’s pass rush isn’t Florida State’s or Georgia’s, at least in terms of personnel. But the Commodores can be disruptive. They’ve logged multiple sacks in every game this season, and feature a couple of tenured bookends off the edge in 5th-year seniors Miles Capers and Khordae Sydnor. Bama fans will not-so-fondly recall Capers from one of the biggest swing plays in last year’s game, a strip sack that snuffed out a potential go-ahead drive in the 4th quarter.

That was 1 of 3 fumbles Capers forced last season, and it set up Vandy’s final touchdown drive of the afternoon to extend the cushion to double digits. The lineman he beat on that play, Elijah Pritchett, accepted an invitation to portal out at the end of the season. (He’s currently a backup at Nebraska.) His replacement at right tackle, Wilkin Formby, has been among the most improved players since the opener — along with his fellow bookend, left tackle and part-time wide receiver Kadyn Proctor — but is potentially beatable.

One thing the ‘Dores do not want is to be forced to bring extra rushers and leave themselves exposed on the back end against Alabama’s elite wideouts. Every blitz with Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard on the outside is a roll of the dice.

When Vanderbilt has the ball: Can the Commodores command the clock?

Vandy wrestled the clock into submission in last year’s upset, finishing with an incredible 24-minute advantage in time of possession. The ‘Dores converted more 3rd downs (12) than any opposing offense against Alabama since at least 2016, 5 of them coming on a marathon, 17-play, 75-yard TD drive in the first half that spanned nearly 10 minutes. (Notably, that march was aided by a couple of unforced, drive-extending penalties by Alabama’s defense, for illegal substitution and roughing the passer.) In the meantime, the explosive Crimson Tide offense stood idly by for long stretches. Vandy ran nearly as many plays before halftime (40) as the Tide ran the entire game (45).

The 2025 version of the offense is (so far) significantly more explosive than last year’s, but the ball-control blueprint has not changed. Besides serving as America’s introduction to Diego Pavia, the Bama game was also a glimpse of Pavia at his hyper-efficient best. Although he only put the ball in the air 20 times, he made them count, averaging 12.6 yards per attempt with 13 first downs and 2 touchdowns on 16 completions. (Nearly half of those first downs went to Pavia’s former New Mexico State teammate Eli Stowers, who moved the chains on all 6 of his receptions; Stowers remains his favorite target, and by general consensus, the top receiving threat in the country among tight ends.) Pavia finished with 308 total yards, a career-high 96.0 Total QBR rating, and a 218.8 passer rating, his best in a Vandy uniform and tied for the best by an opposing quarterback against Alabama since at least 2016. The Commodores are banking on a repeat performance on Saturday in hostile territory.

X-Factor: Vandy’s Offensive Line

The line got the job done against Bama in 2024. This year’s front is totally overhauled: Only 1 starter from last year’s game is back, 6th-year senior Chase Mitchell, and he’s moved inside to guard from tackle. Still, it’s a veteran group. Between Mitchell and long-in-the-tooth transfers Jordan White (Liberty/West Virginia), Isaia Glass (Oklahoma State/Arizona State) and Bryce Henderson (South Dakota), the starting five has combined for 142 career starts. White, a former All-CUSA pick at Liberty, is the SEC’s highest-graded center this season, per PFF, and potentially a future pro. Making consistent headway on the ground will go a long toward the Commodores’ twin goals of a) keeping Pavia out of obvious passing downs, and b) bleeding the clock to death.

The verdict …

From Bama’s perspective, this might be a grudge match. But focusing too much on the redemption/revenge angle gives short shrift to just how far Vanderbilt has come over the past 12 months and the very real opportunity the ‘Dores have to break through on a national stage — not as out-of-the-blue underdogs this time, but as an outfit that belongs in the CFP conversation. They aced their first 2 road tests at Virginia Tech and South Carolina. Diego Pavia has turned out to be as compelling a quarterback as he is a character. Saturday, he has a chance to become the first QB to beat Bama in back-to-back years since Saban started Bama’s revival in 2007.

On the other side, of course, is one of the nation’s most talented rosters with its back against the wall, facing not only the threat of being humbled again by the league’s longtime laughingstock but also of being booted to the margins of the Playoff race before midseason. And, let’s not forget, a significant home field advantage: The Crimson Tide have won 34 of their past 35 in Tuscaloosa, including 14 straight since their last home loss to Texas in September 2023. So far, virtually all of the angst of the early DeBoer era has unfolded on the road, where Bama has been a basketcase since last year’s meltdown in Nashville. If the chaos starts showing up at home, it’s really time to worry.

Prediction: • Alabama 36, Vanderbilt 23

Texas (-6.5) at Florida

For possibly the first time in his life, Arch Manning won’t be the starting quarterback under the most pressure – unlike DJ Lagway, at least he can be reasonably certain that, no matter how much his performance might inflame the Internet, it’s not going to directly cost his head coach his job. But the trip to The Swamp is the first road test since Manning’s opening-day humbling at Ohio State, and the first stop in a month-long tour before the Longhorns’ next home game against Vanderbilt on Nov. 1. That also makes it an opportunity to nip any simmering “Arch can’t handle hostile environments” buzz in the bud.

As for Lagway, well, at least he got one September Saturday that didn’t end in disaster. The Gators had Week 5 off to recuperate from a couple of catastrophic outings against rivals LSU and Miami – or to stew in them, depending on your perspective. Either way, the opening month was a nightmare, and it doesn’t get any easier: On the other side of the date with Texas, a trip to Texas A&M is on deck, with Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Florida State looming in November. 

Pretty much no one outside of Florida’s locker room still expects Billy Napier to be around by then. But if he is, it will be because Lagway used the open date to get back to first principles: Let it rip. As a freshman, he was electric throwing downfield, connecting on 19-of-36 attempts of 20+ air yards for an SEC-best 20.4 yards per attempt. Through 4 games this year, he’s a dismal 1-for-7, the lone completion coming on an improbable 1-handed grab in the opener against Long Island U. He’ll have one more weapon at his disposal on Saturday with the long-awaited debut of Dallas Wilson, a blue-chip freshman who made a big impression in the spring but missed the first 4 games due to a foot injury.

Prediction: • Texas 24, Florida 16

Kentucky at Georgia (-20.5)

They don’t always pull it off, but one thing you can be sure of when teams coached by Kirby Smart and Mark Stoops get together is they’re going to do everything in their power to get you home in time for supper. Georgia vs. Kentucky games are rarely entertaining, but they do tend to be brisk, routinely checking in at roughly three hours flat — an achievement in the era of endless targeting replays and TV timeouts. The 2022 game in Lexington came in at 3:02 despite airing in the afternoon “game of the week” window on CBS, which existed for the express purpose of maximizing TV timeouts. The 2020 game during the COVID year actually came in at a little under 3 hours on the SEC Network, a mutual feat of efficiency on both sides.

It probably helps that Georgia was in firm control of all of those games. Last year’s meeting, a skin-of-the-teeth, 13-12 escape that was in doubt until the end, broke with the trend, coming in at 3:35 on ABC. This year’s game is a noon kickoff on ABC, which doesn’t bode well from the broadcast side. But if the Dawgs get the opportunity to shift into cruise control while extending their winning streak to 16 over UK, don’t expect any objection from Kentucky’s sideline to getting it over with.

Prediction: Georgia 27, • Kentucky 10

Mississippi State at Texas A&M (-14.5)

Nobody is taking a win over this Mississippi State team for granted, 13-game conference losing streak notwithstanding. Based on last week’s upset bid against Tennessee in Starkville (not to mention the actual upset the Bulldogs pulled off against Arizona State in Week 2), that skid is due to come to an end sooner rather than later. But a primetime road trip to College Station is not a very opportune time or place, and 4-0 Texas A&M does not have the look of an outfit ripe for an ambush. In fact, the schedule sets up nicely for A&M over the coming month, with 3 unranked opponents on deck — MSU, Florida, and Arkansas — ahead of a couple of season-defining road tests at LSU and Missouri. The Aggies could cruise into November before we really have any idea how they stack up against a fellow CFP contender from the top half of the conference. But first they have to take care of business against the bottom half.

Prediction: Texas A&M 31, • Mississippi State 20

Kent State at Oklahoma (-45.5)

Oklahoma fans are praying that QB John Mateer and his surgically repaired hand will be cleared in time for next week’s Red River Showdown against Texas. In the meantime, they get to size up backup Michael Hawkins Jr., whose brief audition for the starting job last year as a true freshman — including a blowout loss against the Longhorns — inspired little confidence. Not that anything that might happen against arguably the worst team in the FBS is going to reassure the local if Hawkins does wind up getting the nod in Dallas. But they’d appreciate it if he can get through it without setting off any alarms.

Prediction: Oklahoma 45, • Kent State 3

Scoreboard

Week 5 record: 7-1 straight-up | 2-6 vs. spread (woof)
Season record: 51-10 straight-up | 23-33 vs. spread

The post Week 6 SEC Primer: Welcome to the big stage, Vandy. This time, Alabama will be ready appeared first on Saturday Down South.

1. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt

Looking ahead to Saturday’s grudge match at Alabama, I was thinking about making the case for Pavia as the best quarterback in Vanderbilt history. But then I thought, who else is even in the running?

The competition is not inspiring, statistically or otherwise. Pavia has only played 18 games in a Vandy uniform, not nearly enough to rank among the school’s career leaders in total yards or touchdowns. But he does rank No. 1 all-time in most of the rate stats — touchdown percentage (7.8%), interception percentage (1.7%), yards per attempt (8.3) and pass efficiency (155.7). And that’s strictly as a passer; he’s also on pace to leave with the school record for rushing yards by a QB.

From a scouting standpoint, the 5-foot-(redacted) Pavia is not in Jay Cutler’s class as a future pro. But in Cutler’s 4 years on campus, the Commodores won a grand total of 11 games. (Some of us are old enough to remember the previously obscure Cutler emerging as a prospect for the feat of leading the ‘Dores to a 5-6 record in his senior year, which in fairness was a stunning achievement at the time.) Pavia has already presided over more wins (12) in fewer than half as many starts, including, of course, the biggest win in school history.

Few other modern Vandy quarterbacks have managed to hold down the job long enough to make an impression. The only other candidate with more than a dozen wins as a starter in the past 40 years: Kyle Shurmur, who was 19-24 on the job from 2015-18. Locals remember Shurmur fondly for leading a 3-game win streak over Tennessee. Who else remembers him at all?

By the Remember This Guy? standard, at least, Pavia has already clinched the title with room to spare. Now he has the opportunity to lap the field.

I’d advise waiting to see what happens this weekend at Alabama before anointing him as a Heisman candidate. (In fact, the way this season is shaping up, I’m holding off until November before I anoint anyone as a Heisman candidate.) Unlike his idol and patron saint Johnny Manziel in his Heisman-winning season, Pavia will not have the benefit of catching the Tide with their pants down after last year’s ambush in Nashville. But then, the fact that Pavia readily inspires the comparison speaks for itself, doesn’t it? Once you’ve convinced the rest of the world to take Vanderbilt football seriously, every step after that seems to get a little shorter.

Last week: 2

2. Ty Simpson, Alabama

OK, so in retrospect maybe we should have waited for Simpson to play more than 1 game before calling for an investigation by the Bust Police. Since the Tide’s opening-day nightmare at Florida State, he’s been arguably the best quarterback in the conference, and he was borderline unconscious in the first half of Saturday’s 24-21 win at Georgia. By halftime, he’d already accounted for 192 yards, 6 3rd-down conversions and 3 touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing) en route to a 24-14 halftime lead. Not long ago, that would have been considered a respectable outing by the visiting QB in Sanford Stadium for a full 4 quarters — and that’s without factoring in a couple of flat-out drops on 2 of Simpson’s best throws. Dude was absolutely dealing.

Predictably, the going got tougher in the second half, when the offense failed to add to the lead even while continuing to move the ball in methodical fashion. (Despite the goose egg on the scoreboard, 4 of Bama’s 5 2nd-half possessions actually ended in Georgia territory, resulting in a comically errant field goal attempt; a turnover on downs at midfield; a very conservative punt from the UGA 40-yard line; and victory formation following a pair of clutch 3rd-down conversions, respectively.) Still, Simpson’s 90.1 QBR rating for the game was the 2nd-best by an opposing quarterback in Athens since the start of the 2021 season, eclipsed only by Haynes King’s 91.0 in an epic, 8-overtime upset bid by Georgia Tech last November. The loss marked the end of the Bulldogs’ 33-game home winning streak dating to 2019.

Few if any players in America are under more week-in, week-out scrutiny that QB1 at Alabama, and Simpson deserves credit for riding out the storm of negativity that followed the FSU game with his confidence intact. Take another look at the highlights, though, and pay attention to what you don’t see: A single rep disrupted by a Georgia pass rusher.

That was hardly cherry-picking for the sizzle reel, either. Per the film eaters at Pro Football Focus, Simpson enjoyed pristine pockets on Saturday night more or less from start to finish, facing pressure on just 9 of his 41 drop-backs. The Bulldogs struggled to lay a hand on him, finishing with 0 sacks and only 4 hits. (They were technically credited with a sack, but it came on a trick play that resulted in WR Germie Bernard getting dropped behind the line, not Simpson.) Quarterbacks always bear some responsibility for their own self-preservation, which for a pocket type like Simpson boils down to quick decision-making and an even quicker release. But his o-line, so much maligned after the opener, played about as well as it could play with the season on the line in one of the toughest environments in the sport.

Contrast that with the loss in Tallahassee, which was defined by Simpson’s struggles under duress. Florida State generated pressure on 19 of his 51 drop-backs, including 3 sacks and multiple hits; in real time, it felt significantly worse, especially as the game plan unraveled in comeback mode. The indelible image of the afternoon was of Simpson, under fire, scrambling wildly out of one would-be disaster and into another.

In 3 games since, he’s been vastly better protected and only sacked once. Surprise: Give a blue-chip quarterback time and space to operate, and suddenly, wow, he looks like a blue-chip quarterback. Amazing. Bama still has some work to do to restore its full faith and credit, but as long as Simpson is in his comfort zone, the Tide are SEC Championship contenders with rising national championship odds to boot.

Last week: 9

3. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

Chambliss is the biggest riser in this week’s rankings, as he continues to leave Lane Kiffin with no choice but to leave him on the field. His 3rd start as a Rebel was a little sloppier than his first 2, courtesy of a shaky start and a vastly improved LSU defense that had already put preseason Heisman favorites Cade Klubnik and DJ Lagway through hell over the first few weeks of the season. Once he found his rhythm, though, Chambliss made the Tigers look indistinguishable from Tulane. He accounted for 391 of the Rebels’ 484 total yards in a 24-19 win, recording his 3rd game in as many weeks with 300+ yards passing and 50+ yards rushing.

If Chambliss is actually 6-feet tall, as claimed in his official bio, I’ll eat my hat. (If you’ve been wondering “how did this guy ever wind up at Ferris State?” start there.) But aside from a couple of batted passes at the line, limitations on his skill set so far appear to be mostly in the eye of the beholder. Per PFF, Chambliss is 11-for-15 on attempts of 20+ air yards, including 3-for-5 against LSU. He can throw with touch, he can rip it into tight windows, he can make plays on the move. “Division II quarterback” makes for a fine narrative about the improbable trajectory of his career, but it has no bearing on his skill set.

Obviously, whatever lingering doubt there was before Saturday that Chambliss is the starter going forward, go ahead and put it to bed. Ole Miss is still invested in opening-day starter Austin Simmons, who is still the future. (Chambliss is a fifth-year senior in his final year of eligibility.) The Rebels should do whatever they have to do to make sure Simmons remains in the fold. But if they’re going to make good on the opportunity that slipped through their fingers in 2024, it’s going to be behind Chambliss, who woke up on Sunday morning as a legitimate Heisman candidate on a team that just rocketed into the top four in the AP poll for the first time in a decade. If there’s still a risk he’ll suddenly turn into a pumpkin on road trips to Georgia and/or Oklahoma, it’s worth it. • Last week: 11

4. Gunner Stockton, Georgia

If it seemed like Stockton didn’t get much face time in the Bulldogs’ loss to Alabama, there’s a good reason for that: He didn’t. For one thing, Bama’s elite 3rd-down efficiency succeeded in keeping the ball out of his hands, resulting in an 11-minute advantage in time of possession. Georgia ran just 53 plays to the Crimson Tide’s 77. For another, the ground game didn’t give the Dawgs much incentive to air it out; Georgia piled up 227 yards rushing on 6.9 per carry, fueled by a breakout performance by redshirt freshman Chauncey Bowens.

When he did put it in the air, Stockton was fine, finishing 13-for-20 for 130 yards and a touchdown on a sweet slant-and-go route by Colbie Young. However, his most memorable throw of the night, by far, was one that didn’t connect: A flat-out drop by 5-star freshman Talyn Taylor on what woulda/shoulda been a go-ahead touchdown late in the 3rd quarter.

Yeah, Bama’s star receiver dropped a wide-open touchdown, too. Yeah, Georgia had several more chances after this one, including a critical turnover on downs inside the Alabama 10-yard line in the 4th quarter. But for an offense haunted by dropped passes in 2024, watching yet another ball clang off the hands of a prized recruit was an especially ominous way to lose.

Last week: 5

5. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M

I’m still a little squishy on Reed. On one hand, he’s the emerging face of a top-10 team; averaging just shy of 300 yards per game in total offense; and has looked the part in a couple of high-profile wins over Notre Dame and Auburn. On the other, he ranks 11th among SEC starters in Total QBR and 14th in PFF grading. He completed fewer than half of his passes in South Bend, where his stat line benefited from some impressive YAC. The ground game and defense carried the day in a low-scoring slugfest against Auburn.

Not that the Aggies need him to hang the moon to keep winning against a favorable schedule — they don’t face another currently ranked team until an Oct. 25 trip to LSU. If they’re still undefeated at that point, Reed will feature prominently in the Heisman odds whether the stats back it up or not. (He’s already hovering in the top-10 range in a wide-open race.) At any rate, after last year’s surge into the top 10 collapsed in a 1-4 and another unranked finish, surely no one in College Station is taking anything for granted.

Last week: 6

6. Taylen Green, Arkansas

Green has his faults, but on the lengthy list of reasons Sam Pittman was forced to walk to the plank following Saturday’s 56-13 humiliation against Notre Dame, his quarterback barely registers. It’s a testament to just how bad the Hogs have been defensively that even the presence of the FBS leader in total offense was not enough to save them from the abyss. Is the elevation of (ugh) Bobby Petrino to interim head coach? Don’t bet on it – Arkansas likely won’t be favored in any of its last 7 games on the other side of an open date, 5 of which are against teams currently ranked in the AP top 20. At this point, the only thing left to salvage in Green’s final year of eligibility is his potential as a draftable prospect — and potentially becoming the first Arkansas QB to rush for 1,000 yards.

Last week: 3

7. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee

Josh Heupel‘s system relies as heavily on play-action as any offense in America, and through 5 games, Aguilar has been dramatically better as a play-action passer than on straight drop-backs — so much better, in fact, that he almost looks like a different quarterback. The splits, per PFF:

For context, on the “Play Action” row, Aguilar ranks No. 1 in the FBS in drop-backs, attempts, completions, yards and touchdowns, and 5th in overall grade. On the “No Play Action” row, he’s just a guy eking out a living at the Mendoza line. Something to keep in mind as Tennessee continue to deploy a committee approach to replacing All-American workhorse Dylan Sampson in the backfield, with mediocre results in its first 2 SEC games. If the Vols are struggling to run the ball, they’re struggling, period.

Last week: 8

8. Beau Pribula, Missouri

Pribula’s stat line in a 42-6 win over UMass was about as chill as they come: 26-for-29 passing, 21 consecutive completions, 0 gains of 20+ yards. The jury remains out until Alabama rolls into town on the other side of an open date, or until an opposing defense finally forces Pribula into a situation where Mizzou is not running the ball at will.

Last week: 7

9. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

If Shane Beamer had his way, every game would unfold like Saturday’s 35-13 win over Kentucky: With the defense and/or special teams setting the tone early and the offense shifting into cruise control at halftime. Carolina effectively pulled away with back-to-back defensive touchdowns in the 2nd quarter, turning a 10-7 deficit into a 21-10 lead without the ball touching Sellers’ hands. For his part, Sellers finished an efficient 11-for-14 passing for 153 yards with another 81 yards rushing. The Gamecocks are off this week, but if they’re going to survive their upcoming gauntlet against LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M – combined record: 20-2 – they’re probably going to need more than “efficient” from their would-be Heisman contender.

Last week: 10

10. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

If Trinidad Chambliss was on the escalator going up Saturday, Nussmeier was passing him on the way down. The erstwhile Heisman candidate looked harried and juiceless in a game that, for the first time this season, he couldn’t count on his defense to gift-wrap. Ole Miss’ defense routinely dropped 8 defenders into coverage, dared Nussmeier to make throws from the pocket, and reaped the benefits when he couldn’t. He struggled with accuracy, posed little threat downfield (1-for-7 on attempts of 20+ air yards), and served up a ghastly pick into double coverage.

LSU’s inability to get anything going on the ground didn’t help. Even against light boxes that invited Nussmeier to hand off, the Tigers managed just 59 yards rushing on 2.8 per carry, with a long gain of 10 yards. In fact, the offense’s performance in Oxford was not much of a departure from its mediocre outings in low-scoring wins over Clemson and Florida, which is exactly what made LSU fans so uneasy about winning ugly in those games.

At the moment, Clemson and Florida don’t even look like particularly impressive skins to have on the wall — they’re a combined 1-4 against their other FBS opponents. What kind of marquee win plummets in value before October? To the extent the Tigers felt like either game (but especially the Week 1 win at Clemson) said anything about their Playoff prospects, Saturday was a wake-up call.

Last week: 4

11. Arch Manning, Texas

For once, Manning won’t be the quarterback under the most pressure when Texas visits Florida – unlike DJ Lagway, at least he can be reasonably certain that, no matter how much his performance might inflame the Internet, it’s not going to directly cost his head coach his job. But the trip to The Swamp is the first road test since Manning’s opening-day humbling at Ohio State, and the first stop in a month-long tour before the Longhorns’ next home game against Vanderbilt on Nov. 1. That also makes it an opportunity to nip any simmering “Arch can’t handle hostile environments” buzz in the bud.

Last week: 12

12. Jackson Arnold, Auburn

Another week, another brutal outing for Arnold under siege. In the Tigers’ Week 4 loss at Oklahoma, Arnold absorbed a school-record 10 sacks on 48 drop-backs. In Saturday’s 16-10 loss at Texas A&M, he was sacked 5 times on 43 drop-backs. Is Hugh Freeze trying to get his quarterback crushed?

Unofficial Rankings policy dictates that stats are a QB stat. In Arnold’s case, especially, the trend has followed him to Auburn from Oklahoma, where he was the SEC’s most-sacked quarterback in 2024 despite missing multiple games. But playing in an offense that has largely abandoned the run in its first 2 conference games in favor of asking Arnold to drop back 40+ times is certainly not doing him any favors. As bad as the offense has been — and it could not have been much worse in College Station — both games have been competitive, defensively-driven affairs that were within reach from start to finish. The scoreboard never dictated resorting to chuck-and-duck. Meanwhile, the Tigers’ top running backs, Jeremiah Cobb and Damari Alston, logged just 21 combined carries against OU and A&M despite averaging 5.9 yards a pop. Arnold’s average per drop-back, including positive gains on scrambles and negative yardage on sacks: 3.6 yards.

Look, Freeze didn’t invest in a 5-star talent behind center and big-ticket upgrades at wide receiver to call 50 handoffs per game. But some balance is in order. He vowed after Saturday’s loss that “we’re going to reevaluate everything on our offense” with 2 weeks to prepare for a Week 7 date with Georgia. An 0-3 start in SEC play for the 3rd year in a row would be bad enough. But enduring it with an offense accounting for more zeroes on the payroll than touchdowns only adds insult to injury.

Last week: 13

13. Blake Shapen, Mississippi State

The Bulldogs’ upset bid against Tennessee leaned more heavily on the ground game than on Shapen’s arm, and even more heavily on field position: 3 of MSU’s 4 touchdowns were a result of short fields following turnovers. But the generosity went both ways: 2 of Tennessee’s 4 touchdowns in regulation came directly via the defense, courtesy of a pick-6 in the first half and a scoop-and-score off of a monster strip sack in the second.

Considering the pick-6 was the result of a deflection and the strip sack came from the blindside, arguably neither were really Shapen’s fault. Still, factor in 5 sacks, and his final 22.9 QBR rating was among the worst of his career.

Last week: 14

14. DJ Lagway, Florida

Lagway got a week off to recuperate from a couple of catastrophic outings against rivals LSU and Miami – or to stew in them, depending on your perspective. Either way, September was a nightmare, and it doesn’t get any easier: Back-to-back dates against Texas and Texas A&M are on deck, with Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Florida State looming in November. 

Pretty much no one outside of Florida’s locker room still expects Billy Napier to be around by then. But if he is, it will be because Lagway used the open date to get back to first principles: Let it rip. As a freshman, he was electric throwing downfield, connecting on 19-of-36 attempts of 20+ air yards for an SEC-best 20.4 yards per attempt. Through four games this year, he’s a dismal 1-for-7, the lone completion coming on an improbable 1-handed grab in the opener against Long Island U.

Last week: 15

15. Michael Hawkins Jr., Oklahoma

Hawkins makes his Rankings debut in place of the injured John Mateer, who presumably (hopefully) will not be missed this weekend against 45-point underdog Kent State. After that, the entire state of Oklahoma is holding vigil for Mateer’s return ASAP against a brutal slate over the second half of the season, beginning with the annual rivalry date against Texas in Week 7. As a freshman, Hawkins looked in over his head against the Longhorns last year in just his second career start, a 34-3 loss that effectively ended his audition for the full-time job. (Hawkins earned 1 more start the following week against South Carolina, which went much worse.) The Sooners are “optimistic” Mateer’s surgically repaired hand will be fully mended in time for Red River, which is a polite way of saying leaving their Playoff odds in Hawkins’ hands is not a viable option.

Last week: n/a

16. Cutter Boley, Kentucky

Boley’s first career road start at South Carolina could have gone worse, but not by much. After leading a couple of extended scoring drives on Kentucky’s first 2 possessions, the night went sideways in a hurry: The Wildcats’ next 5 possessions yielded 4 giveaways, a turnover on downs, and an insurmountable 28-10 deficit at halftime. Two of those turnovers — a fumble return off a strip sack, immediately followed by a pick-6— resulted in 2 Carolina touchdowns in a span of less than 2 minutes. Kentucky never threatened again.

In addition to the turnovers, Boley was also sacked 6 times. His 10.8 QBR rating and 29.2 PFF grade were both the worst to date this season by an SEC starter. Next up: At Georgia. Godspeed, son.

Last week: 16⬌

The post SEC QB Power Rankings, Week 6: Alabama gave Ty Simpson time. He gives the Tide hope appeared first on Saturday Down South.

The Petrino Trap

So it was foretold, so it has come to pass: Bobby Petrino is, for the time being, Head Hog again.

Arkansas mercifully fired Sam Pittman on Sunday in the wake of a 56-13 humiliation against Notre Dame in Fayetteville, ending a long, depressing fadeout that began roughly the moment the ink dried on the contract extension Pittman signed in the summer of 2022.

At that point, the Razorbacks were satisfied with the trajectory of the program coming off a 9-4 campaign in ’21 — a dramatic turnaround from the smoking crater of a program Pittman took over just 18 months earlier. They opened the following season at No. 19 in the AP poll, and rose as high as No. 10 that September on the strength of a 3-0 start. It was downhill from there.

Since the start of the ’22 season, the Hogs are 7-18 in SEC play, and increasingly noncompetitive outside it. Pittman only narrowly survived the hot seat last year, and was already being fitted for the gallows on the heels of a brutal, 32-31 loss at Memphis in Week 3. Saturday’s debacle against the Irish, a game Arkansas entered as a mere 5.5-point underdog, was the anvil that broke the camel’s back. Defensively, the Hogs were not just bad, but listless in a way that was all too familiar: Missed tackles, gaping running lanes, drives extended by penalties, receivers running (jogging) wide open through the secondary with impunity, facing barely a trace of resistance.

In the first half alone, Notre Dame scored 6 touchdowns on 6 possessions, amassing 42 points, 420 yards and 20 first downs on 10.2 yards per play. The surrender was so complete the crowd couldn’t even be bothered with a halfhearted chorus of boos as the Razorbacks limped to the locker room, and it wasn’t an overreaction to realize their head coach’s fate all but sealed. The 43-point margin of defeat was the largest of Pittman’s tenure.

That tenure is now kaput, officially. What next?

Dismal as it is, the immediate state of affairs is not quite as dire as the one Pittman inherited from the Chad Morris administration in December 2019, if only due to the presence of a legitimate talent behind center, Taylen Green, for the remainder of the season. (Green still leads the nation in total offense despite a subdued outing against the Irish, and still has draft stock to consider.) Enter the well-traveled Petrino, who assumes the interim role after serving as offensive coordinator since the start of last season. From pretty much the moment he was hired, the specter of “Interim Head Coach Bobby Petrino” at the same school where he was canned in disgrace 13 years ago has been both a punchline and a looming inevitability. Sunday morning, it became a reality. By Monday morning, he’d already fired 3 defensive coaches, including coordinator Travis Williams.

The question now is for how long. Given 7 games, a talented quarterback and zero expectations, it’s not impossible that Petrino could make a legitimate run at the permanent job. Shortsighted, ill-advised, improbable? Yes. But impossible? Not by a long shot.

It’s not that hard to talk yourself into the guy. Petrino has a history of seeming like a good idea, right up until the bottom falls out. Before he was fired from Arkansas the first time around for gross misconduct involving a much younger athletic department staffer — and before the image of his bloodied visage in a neck brace became an enduring meme — Petrino had a reputation as a winner at the college level, with a stellar record as head coach at Louisville and Arkansas. He presided over arguably the 2 best seasons in Louisville history, top-10 finishes in 2004 and ’06. In 2010, he led Arkansas to its only appearance to date in a BCS/CFP bowl; the following year, his last in Fayetteville, is still the Razorbacks’ best since joining the SEC, resulting in an 11-2 record and No. 5 ranking in the final AP poll. In Petrino’s second stint at Louisville (2014-18), he recruited Lamar freakin’ Jackson and oversaw his breakout Heisman campaign in 2016. Whatever else there is to say about the man, no one has ever accused him of not knowing how to put points on the board.

Sooner or later, though, the tab comes due. Virtually every notable stop in Petrino’s career has ended badly. He was entangled in the infamous “Jetgate” scandal at Auburn in 2003, when he was the choice of a handful of boosters to replace his former boss, Tommy Tuberville, in a failed coup. (At the time, Petrino was wrapping up his first season at Louisville, only a year removed from his lone season as Auburn’s offensive coordinator in 2002.) His brief, doomed stint with the Atlanta Falcons, in 2007, reliably ranks high on lists with headlines like “The Worst NFL Hires of the Century.” His subsequent tenure at Arkansas, a success on the field, ended in scandal. Round 2 at Louisville immediately collapsed after Jackson’s departure, resulting in Petrino getting the axe in the midst of a 2-10 disaster in 2018. He left his next job, as head coach at Missouri State, after 2 losing campaigns in 3 years. His lone season as Texas A&M’s offensive coordinator, in 2023, ended with his boss getting paid the GDP of a small island nation to hit the bricks.

Now, here he is again: A short-term fix with an opportunity to settle in for the long haul. Of course, if you asked them today, I doubt any of the stakeholders who’ll ultimately decide on Pittman’s replacement would express much enthusiasm about settling for a 64-year-old retread with more baggage than an international flight, for all the obvious reasons. Arkansas is a good job with the potential resources to compete in the SEC’s middle class, if the right people can be convinced to open their checkbooks. (Another reason Pittman, who never inspired the kind of investment that boosters have poured into men’s basketball and baseball, had to go.) There are plenty of viable candidates. But then, if they weren’t willing to at least consider Petrino, they wouldn’t be granting him what amounts to an extended audition for the job.

Weird things happen when coaches get fired midstream. Right now, the outlook is bleak: The Razorbacks are off this weekend, followed by a gauntlet of 7 conference games in 8 weeks, 5 of them against opponents ranked in the top 20 in the updated AP poll. As it stands, the Hogs are almost certain underdogs in all of those games, give or take a Nov. 1 visit from Mississippi State. What if they spring an upset or two along the way? What if, against all odds, they manage to eke out bowl eligibility? If that seems like a pointless question to ask about the team Arkansas fans just watched lay a massive egg on national TV, well, that’s the point. There is a track record of assistants promoted to the interim role in the first half of the season coaching their way into the full-time gig over the second half, including Spencer Danielson at Boise State, Brent Key at Georgia Tech, Ed Orgeron at LSU and Dabo Swinney at Clemson. Petrino is no less likely to pull it off than anyone on that list.

One thing we can say for certain: Shame will not factor into the decision. If it did, the speculation would already be moot, because Petrino never would have been allowed back on campus in the first place. Simply by handing him a badge to the building, athletic director Hunter Yurachek signaled loud and clear that the relevant criteria are wins and losses on one hand, dollars and cents on the other.

As well-liked as Pittman was locally, his throwback appeal was always an awkward fit for such an unabashedly mercenary era even when the team was holding its own. Mercenary happens to be a language that Petrino speaks fluently. It strains credulity on both sides to imagine his comeback wasn’t engineered with exactly this scenario in mind. Arkansas knew what it was getting when it agreed to facilitate his career rehab as a play-caller, and it knows what it’s getting now in a temporary-but-maybe-not CEO. Buyer beware.

Ty Simpson: No pressure, no problem

OK, so in retrospect maybe we should have waited more than one game before calling for an investigation by the Bust Police into Alabama’s Ty Simpson. Since the Tide’s opening-day nightmare at Florida State, Simpson has been arguably the best quarterback in the conference, and was borderline unconscious in the first half of Saturday’s 24-21 win at Georgia. By halftime, he’d already accounted for 192 yards, 6 3rd-down conversions and 3 touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing) en route to a 24-14 halftime lead. Not long ago, that would have been considered a respectable outing by the visiting QB in Sanford Stadium for a full 4 quarters — and that’s without factoring in a couple of flat-out drops on two of Simpson’s best throws. Dude was absolutely dealing.

Predictably, the going got tougher in the second half, when the offense failed to add to the lead even while continuing to move the ball in methodical fashion. (Despite the goose egg on the scoreboard, 4 of Bama’s 5 second-half possessions actually ended in Georgia territory, resulting in a comically errant field goal attempt; a turnover on downs at midfield; a very conservative punt from the UGA 40-yard line; and victory formation following a pair of clutch 3rd-down conversions, respectively.) Still, Simpson’s 90.1 QBR rating for the game was the 2nd-best by an opposing quarterback in Athens since the start of the 2021 season, eclipsed only by Haynes King’s 91.0 in an epic, 8-overtime upset bid by Georgia Tech last November. The loss marked the end of the Bulldogs’ 33-game home winning streak dating to 2019.

Few if any players in America are under more week-in, week-out scrutiny that QB1 at Alabama, and Simpson deserves credit for riding out the storm of negativity that followed the FSU game with his confidence intact. His Heisman odds are soaring. Take another look at the highlights, though, and pay attention to what you don’t see: A single rep disrupted by a Georgia pass rusher.

That was hardly cherry-picking for the sizzle reel, either. Per the film eaters at Pro Football Focus, Simpson enjoyed pristine pockets on Saturday night more or less from start to finish, facing pressure on just 5 of his 40 drop-backs. In fact, as a team, Georgia posted the worst single-game pass-rushing grade (51.5) by any UGA outfit in the entire PFF database dating back to 2014. Take that for what it’s worth, but the Bulldogs literally struggled to lay a hand on him, finishing with zero sacks and a single hit. (They were technically credited with a sack, but it came on a trick play that resulted in WR Germie Bernard getting dropped behind the line, not Simpson.) Quarterbacks always bear some responsibility for their own self-preservation, which for a pocket type like Simpson boils down to quick decision-making and an even quicker release. But his o-line, so much maligned after the opener, played about as well as it could play with the season on the line in one of the toughest environments in the sport.

Contrast that with the loss in Tallahassee, which was largely defined by Simpson’s struggles under duress. Florida State generated pressure on 19 of his 51 drop-backs, including 3 sacks and multiple hits; in real time, it felt significantly worse, especially as the game plan unraveled in comeback mode. The indelible image of the afternoon was of Simpson, under fire, scrambling wildly out of one would-be disaster and into another.

In 3 games since, he’s faced fewer total pressures (17) than he did against the ‘Noles on nearly twice as many attempts, and has only been sacked once. Surprise: Give a blue-chip quarterback time and space to operate, and suddenly, wow, he looks like a blue-chip quarterback. Amazing. Bama, national title odds are improving, but it still has some work to do to restore its full faith and credit; as long as Simpson is in his comfort zone, the Tide are contenders.

Holy Trinidad, Fading Nussmeier

Ole Miss’ 24-19 win over LSU was a tale of 2 quarterbacks passing each other on escalators going in opposite directions in the SEC title chase, Heisman race and more.

Going up: Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss, the unlikely D-II transfer with the meme-able name, who continues to leave Lane Kiffin with no choice but to leave him on the field. Chambliss’ 3rd start as a Rebel was a little sloppier than his first 2, courtesy of a shaky start and a vastly improved LSU defense that had already put preseason Heisman favorites Cade Klubnik and DJ Lagway through hell over the first few weeks of the season. Once he found his rhythm, though, Chambliss made the Tigers look indistinguishable from Tulane. He accounted for 391 of the Rebels’ 484 total yards, recording his 3rd game in as many weeks with 300+ yards passing and 50+ yards rushing.

If Chambliss is actually 6-feet tall, as claimed in his official bio, I’ll eat my hat. (If you’ve been wondering “how did this guy ever wind up at Ferris State?” start there.) But aside from a couple of batted passes at the line, limitations on his skill set so far appear to be mostly in the eye of the beholder. Per PFF, Chambliss is 11-of-15 on attempts of 20+ air yards, including 3-of-5 against LSU. He can throw with touch, he can rip it into tight windows, he can make plays on the move. “Division II quarterback” makes for a fine narrative about the improbable trajectory of his career, but it has no bearing on his skill set.

Obviously, whatever lingering doubt there was before Saturday that Chambliss is the starter going forward, go ahead and put it to bed. Ole Miss is still invested in opening-day starter Austin Simmons, who is still the future. (Chambliss is a 5th-year senior in his final year of eligibility.) The Rebels should do whatever they have to do to make sure Simmons remains in the fold. But if they’re going to make good on the opportunity that slipped through their fingers in 2024, it’s going to be behind Chambliss, who woke up on Sunday morning as a legitimate Heisman candidate (+1800 odds at ESPNBet) on a team that just rocketed into the top 4 in the AP poll for the first time in a decade. If there’s still a risk he’ll suddenly turn into a pumpkin on road trips to Georgia and/or Oklahoma, it’s worth it.

Fading: Garrett Nussmeier, the erstwhile Heisman candidate who looked harried and juiceless in a game he couldn’t count on his defense to gift-wrap. Ole Miss’ defense routinely dropped 8 defenders into coverage, dared Nussmeier to make throws from the pocket, and reaped the benefits when he couldn’t. He struggled with accuracy, posed little threat downfield (1-for-7 on attempts of 20+ air yards) and served up a ghastly pick into double coverage.

LSU’s inability to get anything going on the ground certainly didn’t help. Even against light boxes that invited Nussmeier to hand off, the Tigers managed just 59 yards rushing on 2.8 per carry, with a long gain of 10 yards. In fact, the offense’s performance in Oxford was not much of a departure from its mediocre outings in low-scoring wins over Clemson and Florida, which is exactly what made LSU fans so uneasy about winning ugly in those games.

At the moment, Clemson and Florida don’t even look like particularly impressive skins to have on the wall — they’re a combined 1-4 against their other FBS opponents. What kind of marquee win plummets in value before October? To the extent the Tigers felt like either of those games (but especially the Week 1 win at Clemson) said anything about their Playoff prospects, Saturday was a wake-up call.

Dude of the Week: Alabama OL/WR Kadyn Proctor

I was as hard on Proctor as anybody after in the Tide’s loss at Florida State — OK, maybe not anybody, if you count irate Bama fans and disgruntled gamblers prone to venting spleen. But I did single him out in Week 1 as “Goat of the Week” for his no-show performance against the ‘Noles, a dismal effort from a veteran starter touted as a top-10 talent. So, credit where it’s due: Against Georgia, the biggest man on the field looked the part in one of the biggest games of the year, shutting out UGA pass rushers on a banner night for the Crimson Tide o-line across the board.

For a guy whose 1,714 career snaps to date have come almost exclusively at left tackle, Saturday night also served as a stage for the freak athleticism that has inspired tall tales since he set foot on campus. According to ESPN’s Holly Rowe during the broadcast, Proctor met a 9-week weight-loss goal in the days leading up the game, checking in at a sleek 359 pounds. Coaches duly rewarded him by dusting off an idea they’d reportedly shelved after flirting with it in the preseason: His first career touch.

An idea whose time has arrived, clearly. Because it was a backward pass, the play went into the books as an 11-yard run rather than a reception; either way, it worked. Officially, Proctor matched Alabama’s longest run of the night, and exceeded the longest gain by a running back; the next play, a 2-yard touchdown scramble by Simpson, extended the Tide’s lead to 24-14 just before halftime. But that’s merely what’s inscribed in the box score. The sheer spectacle of a mountain of a man gathering in the ball in space and proceeding to rumble through half of a stunned Georgia defense attempting to calculate on the fly whether their NIL deals amount to enough to cover their future medical bills? That’s inscribed in the memories of a generation.

Dud of the Week: Auburn’s Offense (Again)

In Week 4, Jackson Arnold dropped back to pass 49 times in a competitive, defensively-driven game at Oklahoma that Auburn led in the 4th quarter. In Week 5, Arnold dropped back to pass 43 times in a competitive, defensively-driven game at Texas A&M decided by 6 points. Both games ended the same way: With Auburn’s offensive line being overrun and Arnold being swarmed over for a game-clinching sack on his final snap of a long, brutal afternoon.

On one hand, that was “only” A&M’s 5th sack of the day, an improvement on the school-record 10 sacks Arnold absorbed in the Tigers’ loss in Norman. In every other respect, the loss in College Station was a regression from bad to worse.

Arnold averaged just 3.8 yards per attempt; finished 1-for-6 on attempts of 10+ air yards; and turned in ghastly ratings in terms of both efficiency (86.4) and QBR (35.1). His star receiver, Cam Coleman, caught 4 passes with a long gain of 5 yards. As a team, Auburn failed to convert a single 3rd or 4th down in any capacity (0-for-15 in all) and only managed to punch the ball in the end zone as a result of an interception return by the defense that set the offense up at the Aggies’ 2-yard line. On its own, the offense only managed one drive that penetrated deeper than the A&M 40-yard line, yielding a field goal. After the game, Arnold sat next to his head coach at the postgame press conference looking like he’d rather be anywhere else as Hugh Freeze extolled his effort and passion for the game.

I am not a multimillion-dollar play-caller, but I continue to believe Arnold’s effort and passion would be better served in an offense that makes at least a token effort to run the dang ball. Running backs Damari Alston and Jeremiah Cobb had just 8 combined carries against Texas A&M, a decline from the already-too-low 13 carries they logged against Oklahoma. They’ve averaged a perfectly healthy 5.9 yards a pop over that span, in a couple of close games that never dictated abandoning the run. Why is Jackson Arnold dropping back 40+ times on a weekly basis?

With each passing week, the Tigers’ 307-yard rushing performance at Baylor in the opener recedes a little further into the distance, and a little closer to the point of no return for Freeze. They’re running out of time to figure it out.

Week 5 SEC Notebook

1.) Unwatchable as Auburn’s offense was, it did produce the Catch of the Year of the Week, courtesy of Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton Jr. in the first half.

There’s no reason a passing game featuring Singleton and Cam Coleman should be this anemic, but the fact is that the offense right now consists almost exclusively of those guys attempting to generate viral highlights.

2.) Tennessee’s clock management at the end of regulation was a crime. The Vols were tied at Mississippi State, 34-34, in the final 2 minutes of a back-and-forth game that could still go either way. After forcing the Bulldogs to punt, Tennessee’s offense took over at its own 26-yard line with 1:23 remaining and all 3 timeouts at its disposal, needing only a field goal to escape with the win.

But the first play of the ensuing possession, a 3-yard run by DeSean Bishop, was a waste, and the Volunteers proceeded to waste even more precious time by allowing a full 30 seconds to tick away before snapping the ball again. The clock stopped briefly to move the chains following second down, a 13-yard completion from Joey Aguilar to TE Miles Kitselman, but again Josh Heupel elected not to spend a timeout, and by the end of the subsequent play — a 9-yard scramble by Aguilar on which he lingered in the pocket, passed up a chance to run out of bounds, and came up short of another first down — another 14 seconds had elapsed. By the time Heupel finally gave the TO signal, his offense had taken a full minute to run 3 plays.

Still, the Vols were in plausible position, at midfield with 24 seconds and 2 timeouts left. If only. Following an incomplete pass out of the timeout, they moved the chains on a 5-yard run on 3rd-and-1 … and then, inexplicably, declined again to use a timeout, rushing to the line instead while allowing the clock to tick down inside of 10 seconds in the process. An incomplete pass left 4 seconds, 2 timeouts unspent, and Aguilar with no choice but to heave a prayer into the end zone from the MSU 44-yard line. His Hail Mary didn’t even make it that far and had a better chance of being intercepted than caught, and would have been waved off due to a holding penalty if it had.

Of course, all of the above was rendered purely academic after Tennessee prevailed in overtime, 41-34. Ironically, if you had the Vols to cover a 7.5-point spread, you were rooting for overtime throughout this sequence, in the distant hope that they could still pull off an 8-point win due to the mandatory 2-point conversion rule in the event of a second overtime. That possibility went out the window after Bishop immediately scored the eventual game-winning touchdown on the first play of the extra session. Not that anybody on the field had the slightest inkling about any of that.

3.) Injuries on Georgia’s offensive line forced the Dawgs to play 2 true freshmen against Alabama on the majority of their offensive snaps. Dontrell Glover went the distance at right guard, while his massive classmate, Juan Gaston, split reps at right tackle in place of the sidelined Earnest Greene III. They held up fine in pass protection, allowing zero pressures between them, per PFF. (In general, Georgia QB Gunner Stockton was every bit as well protected on the night as his more productive Bama counterpart.) As run blockers, it was a mixed bag. Most notably, Glover (No. 63 below) and Gaston (73) shared the blame on possibly the single biggest swing play of the game: A failed 4th-and-1 conversion attempt inside the Alabama 10-yard line early in the 4th quarter, with the Tide clinging to a tenuous 24-21 lead.

The Bulldogs didn’t come close to scoring again, amplifying the scrutiny of what turned out to be their last best chance. For his part, Kirby Smart defended the call after the game, telling reporters, “I’d do that 10 times out of 10 in terms of going for it,” and noting that UGA had run the same play for conversions earlier in the night as well as in their Week 3 win at Tennessee. And as far as getting the look you want from the defense for a run off right tackle, this …

… well, that’s about as inviting as it gets. At the snap, Alabama didn’t have a soul in position to make the play if the right side of the line executes a couple of routine down blocks. Beyond that, it comes down to a foot race to the pylon between RB Cash Jones and Bama safety Keon Sabb. Instead, the freshmen picked the worst possible moment to look like freshmen, allowing 5th-year senior (and future pro) LT Overton to split the double team, trip up Jones for a 3-yard loss, and swing the pendulum decisively toward the Tide. If there was a moment when Greene was missed, this was it.

Georgia fans online grumbled about the decision to put such a pivotal play in the hands of Jones, a former walk-on whose role is usually limited to passing downs, and who hadn’t touched the ball in any capacity on Saturday night prior to this snap. The Bulldogs’ primary backs, Chauncey Bowens, Nate Frazier and Josh McCray, had all had their moments over the course of the game; unlike Jones, they also check in at well north of 200 pounds apiece with a disproportionate percentage of that mass concentrated in their thighs. Bowens was a revelation, already over 100 yards on the night for the first time in his career on more than 10 yards per carry. McCray, the resident short-yardage back, is listed at 240 and has generated 34 of his 37 rushing yards on the season after contact, per PFF. Why Jones? After coming up just short of the sticks on 3rd down, Georgia opted to go up-tempo on 4th down in an effort to catch Bama scrambling.

“(The) decision is, do you stop, slow down, think about it, let them set the cleats in the ground, let them do everything they want,” Smart said, “or do you try to hit them quickly.” The Dawgs were moving quickly; Jones at that point just happened to be the running back on the field.

But the fact is, any SEC back should easily convert this play if it’s blocked. It wasn’t. Chalk it up to the trenches.

4.) Another Alabama player who has redeemed himself since being singled out in the opener: Junior safety Bray Hubbard. A part-time starter in 2024 due to injury, Hubbard was one of the goats of the loss at Florida State due to missed tackles and a lackluster effort on a long FSU touchdown. In the meantime, he’s emerged as arguably the best player on the defense. In Week 3, he was SEC co-Defensive Player of the Week after coming down with 2 interceptions in a dominant defensive effort against Wisconsin. Against Georgia, he was inescapable, finishing with a team-high 9 tackles and accounting for the game’s only turnover, a forced fumble in the first half that set up a short Bama field goal. Later, he had an emphatic rep on which he evaporated a would-be blocker at the line of scrimmage and stuffed the runner for a minimal gain. At this rate, he’s going to have a decision to make about the next level well ahead of schedule.

5.) Georgia DB Ellis Robinson IV has earned a place on the lowlight reel in 2 straight games, albeit for different reasons. In Week 3, the former 5-star was on the wrong end of 2 touchdown receptions against Tennessee while also getting flagged twice for pass interference. (He actually managed the rare feat of drawing a DPI and giving up a touchdown on the same play.) Against Alabama, he held up much better in coverage but still found a way to make his presence felt in the capital-D Dumbest way possible with the game on the line:

The scrum Robinson needlessly vaulted himself into was the aftermath of an apparently successful QB sneak by Ty Simpson on 3rd-and-1 with a little more than 2 minutes remaining; I say “apparently” because the precise spot might have been up for debate if officials had actually gotten around to spotting it. Instead, Robinson settled the question for them by getting himself flagged 15 yards for unsportsmanlike conduct, at which point no one really cared from what point they started counting off. The penalty didn’t end the game — Bama still needed 1 more first down to put it on ice, which it did, and which it probably would have anyway based on Simpson’s sneak. Robinson simply did his part by eliminating any possible room for doubt.

6.) Two of Tennessee’s 4 regulation touchdowns against Mississippi State came via the defense, courtesy of a pick-6 in the first half and a strip sack in the second. The only other defensive touchdowns in SEC play in Week 5 also came in the same game — in fact, they came in a span of a little less than 2 minutes: South Carolina’s defense scored via pick-six and strip sack on consecutive possessions against Kentucky, breaking the game wide open en route to a 35-13 win. Obits to the Mark Stoops era in Lexington are already in the can.

7.) Alabama’s win over Georgia only raises the stakes for the Tide’s next big test: This weekend’s grudge match against 5-0 Vanderbilt in Tuscaloosa. The ‘Dores aren’t just winning — they’re winning big, with all 5 wins (including a 31-7 romp at then-No. 11 South Carolina in Week 3) coming by 20+ points. Vandy is up to No. 16 in the updated AP poll in the wake of a 55-35 beatdown of Utah State. Saturday’s collision will be the first Bama/Vandy meeting with both teams ranked since 1937, the second year of the poll’s existence.

Moment of Zen of the Week

The post Monday Down South: Bobby Petrino is back, baby. What could possibly go wrong? appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Game of the Week: Alabama at Georgia (-2.5)

The Stakes: This one needs no introduction, right? Alabama vs. Georgia has been the SEC’s defining rivalry for the better part of a decade, despite just two regular-season meetings since Kirby Smart‘s arrival at Georgia in 2016. Instead, the Tide and Dawgs have reserved their collisions for the sport’s biggest stages, meeting 3 times in the SEC Championship Game (2018, 2021, 2023) and twice in the CFP Championship Game (2017, 2021). Every one of those showdowns was meaningful and memorable, featuring some of the biggest stars and most dramatic moments of the era, and nearly all of them went right down to the wire. The winner in 4 of the past 7 games has had to stage a 4th-quarter comeback to pull it off, including both meetings in the national title game; in last year’s instant-classic Bama win in Tuscaloosa, both teams staged dramatic comebacks, at one point trading go-ahead touchdown bombs on consecutive snaps in the final 3 minutes.

Like a couple million other people, I went to bed that night feeling like I’d just watched one of the greatest games ever played. In terms of its resonance, though, it turned out it was no 2nd-and-26. For the first time this century, beating Georgia didn’t clinch the Tide’s case as championship material. They spent exactly 1 week atop the polls before biting the dust at Vanderbilt, an unthinkable upset that immediately eclipsed the Georgia win for historical impact. They lost twice more in the regular season, missed the Playoff (as they should have), and limped into the offseason with a perfunctory loss in a bowl game named for a “global leader in cybersecurity.”

Nor did losing the Biggest Game of the Year doom Georgia to the backseat. The Bulldogs never regained their perch as default frontrunners, but they were hardly also-rans, ultimately surviving the SEC gauntlet to claim the conference title and a first-round Playoff bye as the No. 2 seed. If Dawgs fans counted the ’24 season as a disappointment in the end, the heartbreaker at Bama wound up nowhere near the top of the list of reasons why.

So, for once, the ’25 edition arrives with a little less sturm und drang than this rivalry is accustomed to. Other than the fact that these are still the 2 most talented rosters in America in terms of recruiting rankings, not much about these teams feels familiar. Alabama under Kalen DeBoer has quickly earned its reputation as a basket case on the road, with losses in 5 of its past 6 outside of Tuscaloosa. Despite a couple of dominant outings in the meantime, memories are fresh of the opening-day debacle at Florida State, arguably the worst any Crimson Tide outfit has looked in nearly 20 years.

Bama has not descended into full-blown mediocrity — not yet. Still too many 5-stars in the deck, as we saw in a blowout win over Wisconsin in Week 3. But it is a wild card, replacing the week-in, week-out consistency that defined the program for so many years with a series of peaks and valleys on the way down. Emotionally, last year’s win over Georgia was like Mount Everest, or at least as close as you can get in the conference opener in late September. This year? A big, fat TBD.

For Georgia’s part, the sense of inevitability that surrounded the program in its peak years had already evaporated well before Zabien Brown came down with the game-clinching interception off Carson Beck. Even in victory, the Bulldogs feel less like overlords these days than survivors. Their come-from-behind, 44-41 win at Tennessee in Week 3 was their 3rd overtime win in their past 4 games vs. power-conference opponents, following on the heels of last year’s razor-thin escapes against Georgia Tech and Texas to close the regular season. If you didn’t know any better, you might even describe them as scrappy or resilient. No doubt Smart would prefer it if you did. But that is not the kind of adjective you use to describe a team that has the luxury of shifting into cruise control until December.

Of course, it speaks volumes that even the slightly diminished, “rebuilding” versions of these programs still harbor realistic Playoff-or-bust expectations. Georgia has better national championship odds now, but the winner on Saturday night will take a giant step toward securing a CFP bid, at minimum, and probably emerges as the early favorite to win the SEC. As we learned last year, that doesn’t necessarily mean as much at this point on the calendar in the expanded Playoff era as it did a couple years ago. But if the drama lives up to the prevailing Bama-Georgia standard, here’s guessing you’re going to have a hard time of convincing anyone in the stadium that anything has changed.

When Bama has the ball: Can Georgia’s secondary handle Alabama’s wideouts?

Ryan Williams was the Dagws’ worst nightmare in 2024: 6 receptions, 177 yards, a couple of vault-worthy moments that will follow him the rest of his life. One of the true “A Star is Born” performances of the decade.

His star dimmed a bit after that, his last touchdown vs. an FBS opponent coming in a midseason loss at Tennessee. Like the rest of the team, Williams got off to a dubious start this year, finishing with more drops (3) than first downs (2) against Florida State; his afternoon ended early in Tallahassee due to a concussion that sidelined him for a 73-0 bonanza against UL-Monroe in Week 2. Finally, he was back to looking like his best self in the Tide’s Week 3 win over Wisconsin, turning in his first triple-digit receiving performance since his breakout game as a freshman. 109 of Williams’ 165 yards vs. the Badgers came after the catch, highlighted by a toe-tapping pirouette that immediately evoked the move that posterized UGA’s Julian Humphrey last year.

Alabama has plenty of concerns on offense, including an o-line that wilted in pass protection against Florida State and a ground attack that has become virtually irrelevant sans Jalen Milroe. But as long as the Tide have that, they will never be out of any game. Through 3 games, the starting rotation of Williams, Germie Bernard and Miami transfer Isaiah Horton has averaged 16.9 yards per catch with 11 catches of 20+ yards and 5 touchdowns.

On the other side of the ball, Georgia’s secondary was a sore point throughout last season (by Georgia standards, anyway) and didn’t do anything to alleviate the concerns in its only relevant outing to date against Tennessee. The Vols repeatedly struck paydirt downfield, winning jump balls, drawing multiple flags for pass interference, and on at least one occasion springing a receiver for a wide-open touchdown. Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar finished 5-for-6 with 4 touchdowns on attempts of 20+ yards alone, joining CJ Stroud (2022), Mac Jones (2020), Joe Burrow (2019) and Drew Lock (2017) as the only opposing QBs to drop 4 TD passes on Georgia in Kirby Smart’s tenure. Either Aguilar is a sneaky first-round prospect, or Georgia has some significant work to do on the back end.

When Georgia has the ball: Can the Dawgs control the clock?

Georgia’s ground game against Tennessee was nothing to write home about: Employing their usual running back-by-committee approach, the Bulldogs ran 51 times (excluding sacks) for 208 yards, good for a pedestrian 4.1 yards per attempt. But it had its moments. Most notably, there was the opening drive of the second half, a 14-play, 75-yard slog that unfolded almost entirely on the ground; that march took up half the 3rd quarter, resulting in a go-ahead touchdown from a yard out. The game-winning TD “drive” in overtime also consisted of 3 straight runs.

But you can’t really talk about Georgia’s running game under offensive coordinator Mike Bobo without factoring in screens. QB Gunner Stockton, making his first true road start, was 13-for-13 against the Vols on attempts behind the line of scrimmage, per Pro Football Focus. Those attempts yielded 118 of his 304 passing yards and the first of his 2 touchdowns, a quick flip into the flat to USC transfer Zachariah Branch that broke for a 36-yard score due to textbook perimeter blocking.

If you count passes behind the LOS as de facto runs, the run game accounted for nearly two-thirds of the Bulldogs’ total output. Just as importantly on an afternoon when the defense was on its heels, Georgia controlled the ball for more than 38 minutes in regulation, racking up a 16-minute advantage in time of possession in the process. Keeping Bama’s explosive wideouts on the sideline for as long as possible will be a similarly high priority on Saturday night.

X-Factor: Alabama RB Jamarion Miller

Nobody is about to mistake Miller for one of the great Bama backs. But he was first among equals in the Crimson Tide’s backfield rotation in 2024, and he has been missed in the early going while rehabbing a dislocated collarbone. In his absence, the running backs have been afterthoughts, logging a combined 34 carries for 112 yards (3.3 ypc) against Florida State and Wisconsin. They’ve also been unreliable in pass protection, which DeBoer cites as one of Miller’s strengths.

Miller has been cleared to play in Athens, and figures to play a significant role. Last year, Jalen Milroe ran wild on Georgia for 118 yards and 2 touchdowns, both part of Bama’s opening salvo en route to a 28-0 lead. (Miller was also on the receiving end of a touchdown pass from Milroe in the first quarter of that game.) Ty Simpson is no statue, but he’s obviously never going to be the every-down running threat that Milroe was, either. Granted that the Tide are going to sink or swim based on Simpson’s arm, what does the ideal version of the ground game under first-year coordinator Ryan Grubb even look like? If this weekend goes according to plan, Miller’s return will be their first real opportunity to find out.

The verdict …

Alabama’s track record on the road under Kalen DeBoer is alarming: 5 losses in the past 6 outside of Tuscaloosa, 4 of them as a double-digit favorite. Meanwhile, Georgia has won 33 straight at home since an October 2019 loss to South Carolina in double overtime. The Bulldogs might be as gettable right now as they’ve been at any point since then. Bama has rebounded from the Week 1 FSU debacle with 2 near-flawless performances at home. But the Crimson Tide have forfeited the benefit of the doubt on this stage until further notice.

Prediction: • Georgia 32, Alabama 27

LSU at Ole Miss (-1.5)

Lane Kiffin: It’s one of the biggest games of your career. Who’s your quarterback?

Austin Simmons was the up-and-coming talent touted as the heir apparent to Jaxson Dart, and might still be. But it’s Trinidad Chambliss, the dual-threat Division II transfer with the meme-able name, who has been the breakout star of Ole Miss’ 4-0 start, accounting for 834 total yards and five touchdowns in Simmons’ absence in a pair of high-scoring wins over Arkansas and Tulane. If it was up to a fan vote, the pecking order for this weekend’s tilt against LSU would be a no-brainer.

Not so much, however, for Kiffin, who told reporters earlier in the week that he was undecided on a starter, and that the decision would hinge mainly on the status of Simmons’ gimpy ankle. “At 100% he was our starting quarterback,” Kiffin said, the past-tense in that response doing some heavy lifting.

Look, Kiffin has more at stake in how this situation plays out than just beating LSU on Saturday. The Rebels are invested in Simmons long-term, whereas Chambliss — a 5th-year senior who arrived almost as an afterthought following a spring injury to backup AJ Maddox — is in his last year of eligibility. The last thing they need in the portal era is the QB of the future stewing on the sideline. There’s also the possibility that Kiffin has every intention of sticking with Chambliss and just doesn’t feel like tipping his hand. But voluntarily taking the ball out of one of the hottest hands in the country right now would be a gamble even for a guy as comfortable with rolling the dice as Kiffin. (For what it’s worth, several outlets cited sources and reported that Chambliss is starting.)

On the other sideline, there is no question about Heisman contender Garrett Nussmeier‘s status as QB1. But the offense as a whole has not exactly inspired confidence in case of a potential shootout, either. LSU’s first 3 wins over FBS opponents were all defensively-driven affairs in which Nussmeier struggled to connect downfield and the offense as a whole managed a grand total of 5 touchdowns. The Tigers averaged just 20 points in those games, and that includes a pick-6 by the defense in their Week 3 win over Florida.

A shootout is always a possibility in Oxford. Last year’s wild, overtime win over Ole Miss in Baton Rouge wasn’t Nussmeier’s best game, by a long shot. But it did culminate in his best moment: A last-gasp, 13-play, 75-yard touchdown drive in the closing minutes that involved multiple do-or-die conversions, including the 4th-down touchdown strike that forced OT. In the extra frame, Nussmeier hit the late Kyren Lacy for a walk-off TD on LSU’s first snap, sealing a 29-26 triumph in a game the Tigers never led up to that point.

They could do without that much drama this time around, thanks, but the locals are eager for more fireworks. Vastly improved as the defense has been so far, no one should be surprised if it takes five touchdowns just to keep pace on Saturday. In the Tigers’ last three trips to Ole Miss – including the national championship season in 2019 – the average score is Tigers 41, Rebels 41. 

Prediction: • Ole Miss 28, LSU 23

Auburn at Texas A&M (-6.5)

Hugh Freeze, vultures circling overhead, is desperate to avoid an 0-2 start in SEC play. That means getting the ball in the hands of Cam Coleman.

Auburn’s wild, 4-overtime upset over Texas A&M last November was a breakout stage for Coleman, a massively hyped freshman who entered as an underachiever with as many drops as touchdowns and exited as a rising star. He burned the Aggies for 7 catches, 128 yards and 2 TDs, part of a strong closing stretch that reset the hype to full-tilt entering Year 2.

It’s been a mixed bag so far in the early going, but not for lack of trying. Coleman’s presence was Auburn’s one and only excuse for allowing Jackson Arnold to drop back 49 times in last week’s 24-17 loss at Oklahoma. On 8 targets, Coleman came down with a pair of deep balls covering 46 yards and 42 yards, respectively; hauled in a short touchdown reception on a goal-line fade; forced 2 pass interference penalties at the expense of true freshman OU cornerback Courtland Guillory; drew what should have been a third DPI on an egregious no-call; and had what should have been a wide-open TD bounce off his fingers on a badly overthrown ball in the end zone.

This guy is going to make a lot of money catching passes from an NFL quarterback one day. At the rate it’s going, Auburn should probably start worrying that he’s not willing to wait until he actually gets to the NFL to do it.
Prediction: • Texas A&M 31, Auburn 22

Notre Dame (-4.5) at Arkansas

Last year, Notre Dame’s secondary was arguably the Irish’s biggest strength during their run to the CFP Championship Game. So far this year, it’s been a liability — through 3 games, the Irish rank a dismal 132nd in passing defense, and 105th in pass efficiency D, a column in which they led the nation in 2024. Partly, that’s due to injury: Two starters, All-American cornerback Leonard Moore and Alabama transfer DeVonta Smith, have been limited, with Smith missing the past 2 games against Texas A&M and Purdue, and Moore sitting out against the Boilermakers. Both are listed as questionable for Saturday’s trip to Fayetteville, with a pair of true freshmen on deck if necessary.

But that’s not the whole story. While the backups have struggled, so has holdover Christian Gray, a respected returning starter who has been heavily targeted in the early going; Gray’s 49.1 PFF coverage grade is among the worst in the country among full-time Power 4 corners. And he wasn’t nearly the worst offender in a 41-40 loss to Texas A&M in Week 3, when 4 other Irish DBs were victimized on completions of 20+ yards.

Arkansas doesn’t boast an individual game-breaker on the order of A&M’s Mario Craver, but the Razorbacks are not bereft, and Bobby Petrino is still scheming up open receivers on a regular basis. If an upset is in the cards, it’s because the Hogs finally ran into a defense as flammable as their own.

Prediction: • Notre Dame 34, Arkansas 26

Tennessee (-7.5) at Mississippi State

The 7.5-point spread in Starkville is a nod of respect to Mississippi State, which enters the SEC opener still technically riding a 12-game conference skid dating to October 2023. All 12 of those losses came by double digits, including a 33-14 decision at Tennessee last November. Year 2 under Jeff Lebby is off to a much better start, highlighted by a dramatic, 24-20 upset over Arizona State in Week 2. State cruised through the rest of the nonconference slate, arriving at 4-0 for the first time since the Dak Prescott-led team that spent 6 improbable weeks atop the AP poll in 2014. Unfortunately, Blake Shapen is no Dak. The ’25 Dogs will settle for a hard-clangin’ crowd, a 4-quarter fight, and (at best) a backdoor cover for their efforts.

Prediction: • Tennessee 35, Miss. State 23

Kentucky at South Carolina (-5.5)

Last year, South Carolina’s pass rush dominated a 31-6 romp in Lexington that set the tone for Kentucky’s descent to the bottom of the standings. Mark Stoops made overhauling the o-line a top offseason priority, adding seven new OL via the portal. The new starting tackles, Alex Wollschlaeger (Bowling Green) and Shiyazh Pete (New Mexico State), were all-conference picks at their previous stops who arrived at Kentucky with a combined 69 starts and 4,297 career snaps between them. Against SEC competition, the outlook remains TBD. Through 3 games, PFF has charged Wollschlaeger and Pete with a combined 15 QB pressures allowed, the majority of them coming in the Wildcats’ Week 2 loss against Ole Miss.

Not exactly an ideal situation to be trotting out a young quarterback, redshirt freshman Cutter Boley, making his first SEC start. (As if there ever is one.) Carolina edge rushers Dylan Stewart and Bryan Thomas Jr. rank among the conference’s more disruptive tandems with a combined 28 pressures on the season, but only managed to turn 1 of those pressures into a sack the past 2 weeks in losses to Vanderbilt and Missouri. Stewart, the breakout star of last year’s win at Kentucky as a true freshman, is overdue for a reminder of his enormous potential after an ejection against Vandy forced him to sit out the first half at Mizzou. Gamecocks fans are eagerly awaiting his arrival in Year 2 at Boley’s expense.

Prediction: South Carolina 24, • Kentucky 19

Utah State at Vanderbilt (-21.5)

The ‘Dores are 4-0 against the spread with plenty of room to spare, and I’m 0-4 picking against them to cover. I guess I’ve learned my lesson, huh? But wait! Utah State (3-1 overall) is also 4-0 against the spread under first-year coach Bronco Mendenhall, also with plenty of room to spare. The last time they were the designated roadkill against an SEC opponent, the Aggies refused to let Texas A&M run away with it in a Week 2 loss in College Station, salvaging a halfway-respectable 44-22 final score from a 30-6 halftime deficit. On the other hand, Utah State was a significantly bigger underdog in that game (+33.5) than it is in Nashville, narrowing the margin for error. The Vandy wagon is full speed ahead going into next week’s grudge match at Alabama, but before it rolls into Tuscaloosa, there’s one more garbage-time session for the sickos to sweat out.

Prediction: • Vanderbilt 41, Utah State 17

UMass at Missouri (-43.5)

A group of UMass faculty likes to annoy the administration by routinely voting to scrap the football program. A futile gesture, but the professors have a point. The Minutemen are on their 5th head coach since returning to the FBS ranks in 2012, during which time they’ve yet to win more than 4 games in a season. The current edition has lost 14 straight vs. FBS opponents dating to October 2023 – including a 45-3 beatdown from Mizzou last year – and it’s not getting any closer. UMass’ first 2 FBS games this year were a pair of blowout losses at the hands of Temple and Iowa by a combined score of 89-17, with a 1-point loss to FCS Bryant University sandwiched in between.

It can’t go on like this. Acknowledging it’s time to put up or bow out, the university recently announced a major investment in football, coinciding with its first year back in the MAC after a decade as an independent. UMass’ previous stint in the MAC from 2012-15 was as a football-only affiliate; this time it’s as a full-time member in all sports. Maybe joining a conference for real will spark a reversal of the Minutemen’s fortunes. Or maybe the rest of the league will quickly be reminded why they got the boot in the first place.

Prediction: • Missouri 55, UMass 7

Scoreboard

Week 4 record: 9-1 straight-up | 2-7 vs. spread (woof)
Season record: 44-9 straight-up | 21-27 vs. spread

The post Week 5 SEC Primer: In a wide-open SEC race, Alabama-Georgia still sets the pace appeared first on Saturday Down South.

1. John Mateer, Oklahoma

Mateer emerged from Oklahoma’s 24-17 win over Auburn as the Heisman betting favorite, a distinction he held for roughly 48 hours before OU announced he would be out indefinitely due to a hand injury. For now, indefinitely means just that — Mateer is expected to be back at some point this season, but whether that means 2 weeks or 2 months is TBD. The calendar does offer a bit of cushion with an open date this weekend, followed by a light scrimmage against Kent State in Week 6 before the SEC gauntlet kicks off in earnest against the Oklahoma vs. Texas Red River Showdown.

However prolonged, Mateer’s absence against real competition is a serious blow. Arguably no player in America has meant more to their team in the early going: Through 4 games, Mateer has accounted for more than 80% of the Sooners’ total offense as a passer and rusher, the largest individual share in the SEC. In wins over Michigan and Auburn, that number was above 90%, which is as alarming as it is impressive. How are they going to fill a hole that big? The next man up, sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr., was plainly out of his depth in his brief trial run as a starter last year as a true freshman. The running backs made no impression whatsoever in the 2 games to date that matter. The o-line is banged up. At least the offense has a couple weeks to come up with answers before the Red River date against the Longhorns. After that, each week that Hawkins (or anyone other than Mateer) is listed atop the depth chart, the Sooners’ Playoff odds are likely to get a little longer.

Last week: 1⬌

2. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt

Last year, I thought Pavia’s reputation actually benefited from most of Vandy’s games unfolding on the lower rungs of the broadcast package, where the legend of the feisty, 5-foot-nothing overachiever who slayed Bama could flourish without his actual game coming in for too much scrutiny. This year, the situation is a little different. The AP-ranked Commodores are kicking butt in the early going, but in front of such marginal audiences so far that it’s not quite sinking in how rapidly they’re rendering the underdog narrative obsolete. If anything, Pavia’s production — as opposed to his got that dog in him demeanor and ongoing legal crusade against NCAA eligibility rules — is being slept on.

There are good reasons for that besides his games being relegated to ESPNU. For one, Pavia is not really considered a pro prospect, and therefore not subject to being dissected to the nth degree by armchair YouTube scouts like, say, Arch Manning. Vanderbilt’s deliberate pace on offense doesn’t help, either: Just like last year, Pavia’s 23 pass attempts per game are the fewest of any full-time SEC starter (injury casualties excluded), limiting his impact in the conventional counting stats. Nor does he generate many viral highlights, postgame press conferences notwithstanding.

But the numbers are there if you know where to look. Pavia ranks among the top dozen QBs nationally in completion percentage (5th), pass efficiency (11th), overall PFF grade (7th), Total QBR (9th) and EPA (9th).

In fact, the further into the weeds you get statistically, the better he gets. If there’s a single metric that sums up Pavia’s impact, it’s Success Rate. As defined by gameonpaper.com, Success Rate is the percentage of all plays that generate a positive EPA; by that measure, Pavia’s 63.7% Success Rate as a passer this season ranks No. 2 nationally behind only Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza. That’s a big leap over last year, when his Success Rate through the air was a mediocre 42.9%, and he’s also 1 of only 4 players in the top 20 as a passer and a rusher. All those positives add up to a Vanderbilt offense averaging 45.7 points per game.

Sure, it’s early. The schedule gets steeper in a hurry after this week’s visit from Utah State, beginning with a Week 6 trip to Alabama and continuing against LSU, Missouri and Texas on consecutive Saturdays. Barring a catastrophe against Utah State, though, Vandy is going to enter that stretch as a ranked team, and arguably as a dark-horse Playoff contender. (For what it’s worth, ESPN’s Football Power Index currently lists the ‘Dores’ CFP chances at 37.3%, 15th-best nationally and slightly better than LSU and Tennessee. It’s September; take that with as many grains of salt as you see fit.) We’ll see how far the momentum from their presumptive 5-0 start can carry them. But if nothing else, I think we’ve seen enough of Pavia at this point to be reasonably certain he’s not about to abruptly turn into a pumpkin.

Last week: 3

3. Taylen Green, Arkansas

While we’re talking stats! Green continues to fill up the box score on a weekly basis, currently ranking No. 1 nationally in total offense and EPA, 4th in Total QBR and 6th in PFF grading. He also continues to play opposite the league’s most flammable defense, and to watch his teammates cough up golden opportunities to win. Saturday’s 32-31 loss at Memphis ended in exactly the same way as Arkansas’ 41-35 loss at Ole Miss in Week 3: With a potentially game-winning drive derailed by a lost fumble in scoring position.

The ending in the Liberty Bowl was harder to swallow on multiple levels — unlike in Oxford, the Razorbacks were favored to win, led for most of the game (by as many as 18 points in the first half), and were in ideal position to salt the game away. They only needed to drain a few more seconds off the clock before setting up for a chip-shot field goal to win, and found pretty much the only remaining way available to them to screw that up.

Green was hardly blameless in the loss, serving up a couple of interceptions in his least efficient outing of the season. Arkansas managed just 3 points in the second half after looking borderline unstoppable in the first. Even on a mediocre afternoon, though, he still accounted for 378 of the Hogs’ 500 total yards and put them in a position to win in the end, to no avail. If it’s going to take week-in, week-out heroics just to drag this team to bowl eligibility, that tells you all you need to know.

Last week: 2

4. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Last year’s wild, overtime win over Ole Miss in Baton Rouge wasn’t Nussmeier’s best game, by a long shot. But it did culminate in his best moment: A last-gasp, 13-play, 75-yard touchdown drive in the closing minutes that involved multiple do-or-die conversions, including the 4th-down touchdown strike that forced OT. In the extra frame, Nussmeier hit the late Kyren Lacy for a walk-off TD on LSU’s first snap, sealing a 29-26 triumph in a game the Tigers never led up to that point.

They could do without that much drama in this weekend’s trip to Ole Miss, thanks, but the locals are eager for more fireworks. LSU’s first 3 wins over FBS opponents were all defensively-driven affairs in which Nussmeier struggled to connect downfield and the offense as a whole managed just 5 touchdowns. Vastly improved as the defense has been so far, no one should be surprised if it takes 5 touchdowns just to keep pace on Saturday. In the Tigers’ past 3 trips to Oxford – including the national championship season in 2019 – the average score is LSU 41, Ole Miss 41. 

Last week: 4⬌

5. Gunner Stockton, Georgia

Stockton passed his first big test in Week 3, a come-from-behind, overtime thriller at Tennessee in which he showed the Dawgs most of what they needed to see to reassure them their championship-or-bust ambitions are in good hands. He made plays with his arms and legs, led 4 go-ahead scoring drives in the second half and overtime, and generally gave off Stetson Bennett vibes in his first start in a hostile road environment.

Stockton’s 93.1 QBR rating against the Vols is the 2nd-best against an SEC defense so far this season, and his 4th-down touchdown pass to London Humphreys to tie the score late is the most clutch throw.

Now, Dawgs fans could stand to see a little more of that when the game is not on the line. Thirteen of Stockton’s 23 completions in Knoxville were behind the line of scrimmage, per PFF, glorified handoffs that accounted for nearly 40% of his 304 passing yards. The question as Bama rolls into town Saturday off an open date is how many downfield arrows he has in the quiver.

Last week: 5⬌

6. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M

Whatever reservations A&M had about Reed’s long-term prospects after last year’s 1-4 finish are fading fast coming off a landmark Week 3 win at Notre Dame. The Aggies got a week off to bask in the victory and their freshly minted status as a top-10 team. Of course, the last time they cracked the top 10, it was on the heels of Reed’s breakout performance off the bench against LSU last October; they lasted a single week before gradually falling out of the polls altogether in November. (Top 10 to unranked has been an all-too-familiar theme.) Up next: A chance to get off on the right foot in SEC play against one of the teams that contributed to last year’s fadeout, Auburn.

Last week: 6⬌

7. Beau Pribula, Missouri

Pribula continues to be overshadowed by his running backs, especially UL-Monroe transfer Ahmad Hardy, the nation’s 2nd-leading rusher and the runaway favorite for the title of Least Fun to Tackle. For his part, Pribula contributed 75 yards to a dominant rushing effort in the Tigers’ 29-20 win over South Carolina, while get just enough done through the air (16-for-27 for 171 yards) to keep the Gamecocks honest. If that’s the blueprint for the rest of SEC play, they can ride it to November relevance in the Playoff race, at least. But at some point, actually getting over the hump is probably going to require Pribula to beat a real opponent with his arm.

Last week: 8

8. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee

Aguilar has entrenched himself so quickly in Knoxville that a routine, 56-24 beatdown of UAB seems … well, routine. Tennessee scored touchdowns of 7 of 8 offensive possessions against the Blazers before Aguilar called it a day with the Vols leading, 49-10, midway through the 3rd quarter. They could have called it there and covered the 38.5-point spread, but no, gotta get the backups their reps. The amount of money that changes hands in the meaningless throes of garbage time is disgusting.

Last week: 7

9. Ty Simpson, Alabama

Forgive Tide fans if they’re still wary of their new QB1 heading into the latest installment of Alabama vs. Georgia. To his credit, yes, Simpson has been great since setting off the smoke alarms in the Tide’s opening-day meltdown at Florida State, turning in a couple of near-flawless performances against UL-Monroe and Wisconsin in the meantime. But if the initial pangs of the post-Saban era have taught them anything, it’s that nothing is guaranteed from one week to the next – especially on the road. Alabama has lost 5 of its past 6 outside of Tuscaloosa, failing to top 17 points in any of its previous 4 losses. 

They’ve been on this ride before. How many sighs of relief did they breathe over Jalen Milroe, only to watch him follow up a god-like performance with an epic flop? Simpson has plenty of time to reassure them he’s not prone to leaving their stomach tied in knots, beginning on Saturday night. As good as he’s looked his past couple times out, though, at this point trust has to be restored one game at a time.

Last week: 9⬌

10. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

Sellers is dwelling squarely in the Anthony Richardson Zone: Virtually unlimited potential, yet never quite escaping the bounds of reality. As with Richardson at Florida, when it looks good, it looks really good — Sellers’ highlight reel in Carolina’s loss at Missouri was a series of “wow” moments, including a perfectly placed, 49-yard bomb for a touchdown on 3rd-and-long.

The cliché “there is no defense for the perfect pass” was invented for that kind of pass. Both of Sellers’ touchdowns and the majority of his 302 passing yards at Mizzou came on 5 completions that covered 20+ air yards. In the end, though, the glimpses of his ceiling only made the rest of the night that much more frustrating: Sellers also took 5 sacks, missed opportunities and faded late, with the Gamecocks failing to gain a first down in the 4th quarter of a game they led at the end of the 3rd. Their last 3 possessions combined netted 9 yards on 10 plays.

Granted, the defense got pushed around by Missouri’s ground game, and Sellers was coming off an apparent concussion that knocked him out of a Week 3 loss against Vanderbilt; his absence in the second half of that game goes a long way toward explaining the team’s dismal rankings in total offense (last in the SEC) and scoring (next-to-last). But preseason expectations in Carolina were based largely on the premise that whatever the limitations were across the roster, Sellers’ unique talent was enough to transcend them. An 0-2 SEC start in what were supposed to be 2 of the more winnable conference games is not what anyone had in mind.

Last week: 11

11. Austin Simmons or Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

Simmons was the up-and-coming talent touted as the heir apparent to Jaxson Dart, and might still be. But it’s Chambliss, the dual-threat Division II transfer with the meme-able name, who has been the breakout star of Ole Miss’ 4-0 start, accounting for 834 total yards and 5 touchdowns in Simmons’ absence in a pair of high-scoring wins over Arkansas and Tulane. If it was up to a fan vote, the pecking order for this weekend’s tilt against LSU would be a no-brainer.

Not so much, however, for Lane Kiffin, who told reporters earlier in the week that he was undecided on a starter, and that the decision would hinge mainly on the status of Simmons’ gimpy ankle. “At 100% he was our starting quarterback,” Kiffin said, the past-tense in that response doing some heavy lifting.

Look, Kiffin has more at stake in how this situation plays out than just beating LSU on Saturday.

The Rebels are invested in Simmons long-term, whereas Chambliss — a fifth-year senior who arrived almost as an afterthought following a spring injury to backup AJ Maddox — is in his last year of eligibility. The last thing they need in the portal era is the QB of the future stewing on the sideline.

There’s also the possibility that Kiffin has every intention of sticking with Chambliss and just doesn’t feel like tipping his hand. If the coach says it’s an “or” situation, I’m going to list them here with an or. But I’m watching the same games as everybody else. Voluntarily taking the ball out of one of the hottest hands in the country right now would be a gamble with stakes too high even for Kiffin to risk.

Last week: 13 | n/a

12. Arch Manning, Texas

Given the state of the Arch Manning Discourse, I knew Arch must have enjoyed something like a flawless outing against Sam Houston State when I went to bed on Saturday night without having encountered a single errant throw on social media. The box score confirmed it: Manning finished 18-for-21 passing for 309 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 55-0 blowout that was even more lopsided in the details than the final score implies. (The Longhorns outgained the Bearkats by nearly 500 yards, 607 to 113, with Manning exiting the game midway through the 3rd quarter.) He ran for a couple of scores, as well, one of which supplied the viral highlight of the night when Manning taunted a prone defender in the end zone — not enough to draw a flag from the officials, but more than enough to earn a stern lecture from Mom. Everybody’s a critic.

Last week: 14

13. Jackson Arnold, Auburn

For a unit on the wrong end of a record-setting sack total, Auburn’s pass protection in a 24-17 loss at Oklahoma wasn’t quite the catastrophe it felt like in real time. Per PFF, Jackson Arnold was under duress on just 14 of his 49 drop-backs on the afternoon — a 28.6% pressure rate, about average. Nothing remarkable about that number.

What was remarkable was the Sooners’ finish rate: 10 of those 14 pressures actually resulted in sacks, good for an astronomical pressure-to-sack ratio of 71.4%. (PFF credited Oklahoma with 2 more sack than the official box score, presumably counting a pair of sacks that were wiped off the ledger by holding penalties against Auburn; for consistency’s sake here I’m going with the official number.) For context, the median pressure-to-sack ratio in the SEC this season is about 15%. The fact that 9 different OU defenders got in on the sack party contributed to the impression that Arnold was being hounded from all directions all afternoon, as did the fact that a few of the takedowns — especially a couple of dominant reps by future pro R Mason Thomas in the second half — were the kind that tend to leave a lasting impression of the quarterback as a sitting duck.

More often, the reality is that Arnold’s internal clock is running a tick or two too slow.

Sacks are a recurring issue for Arnold, as Oklahoma fans already knew well. As the Sooners’ starter in 2024, he was among the most sacked quarterbacks in the country despite playing in only 9 games. In his defense, he was under more than his fair share of heat in that role, facing pressure on 40.4% of his drop-backs for a team that was frequently in comeback mode; still, his pressure-to-sack ratio (27.3%) was the worst among regular SEC starters. After Saturday, that number for 2025 now stands at 51.5%, easily the worst in the FBS despite enjoying better protection so far at Auburn than he ever did at OU.

Here’s an idea for keeping him upright: Run the dang ball. Granted, Auburn can’t roll into SEC play and expect to bully a blue-chip defense the way it hammered Baylor’s defense in its season-opening win in Waco. The Tigers ran for 307 yards in that game, with Arnold splitting carries evenly with running backs Damari Alston and Jeremiah Cobb. But it certainly can’t expect anything good to come from Arnold dropping back 49 times in a hostile SEC road environment, either. Alston and Cobb combined for just 13 carries in the loss at Oklahoma, including a grown-man run by Cobb in the 3rd quarter on which he broke 5 tackles en route to a 44-yard gain; he didn’t touch the ball again until Auburn’s last-gasp drive in the 4th. Somewhere in between the ideal run/pass ratio on display in the opener and Saturday’s sack-fest in Norman lies a sustainable balance. Hugh Freeze‘s job may depend now on how quickly he can find it.

Last week: 10

14. Blake Shapen, Mississippi State

I don’t put much stock in the notion that State’s 2024 collapse could have been avoided (or at least mitigated) if Shapen hadn’t bowed out with a season-ending shoulder injury in September, but nothing in the nonconference portion of the slate disproved it, either. The Bulldogs pulled off the Week 2 stunner over Arizona State and otherwise took care of business in convincing fashion against Southern Miss, Alcorn State and Northern Illinois. Now, the real test: Snapping a 12-game losing streak in SEC play. Their first shot comes at home this weekend against Tennessee, making its first visit to Starkville since 2012 – a rare opportunity for the Vols to experience via clanging cowbells what the rest of the league has to endure during “Rocky Top.”

Last week: 12

15. DJ Lagway, Florida

Even setting aside the preseason hype, it’s hard to imagine a worse September than Lagway’s. A deflating loss against an 18-point underdog as time expires. A catastrophic, 5-interception meltdown in the conference opener. A total wipeout at the hands of an in-state rival. All in a span of 15 days. Factor in the messianic expectations and the relentless speculation over his head coach’s future, and the pressure on a barely-20-year-old must be crushing.

Normally, this is where I’d say “at least there’s nowhere to go but up” on the other side of an open date in Week 5. We know Lagway has talent. But after the past 3 weeks, any assurances that the course is due for a correction ring hollow. Three of the next 4 games on the other side of the open date are against Texas, Texas A&M (in College Station) and Georgia in the Cocktail Party. If we learned anything from the Gators’ ongoing skid, it’s that it can always get worse. Now it’s just a matter of how long they’re going to keep Billy Napier around to endure it.

Last week: 15⬌

16. Cutter Boley, Kentucky

If there was any doubt, Mark Stoops went ahead and confirmed Boley as QB1 for this weekend’s trip to South Carolina, mercifully relegating Zach Calzada to the bench for the foreseeable future. Calzada’s tenure atop the depth chart was brutal, yielding 4.4 yards per attempt, 0 touchdowns, and a single completion of 20+ air yards in 2 games. With Calazada sidelined by injury in Week 3, Boley threw for more yards (240) and touchdowns (2) in a 48-23 win over Eastern Michigan than Calzada managed in his 2 starts combined. Promoting the redshirt freshman over a struggling 7th-year journeyman coming out of an open date was an easy call — and hopefully the last one Stoops will have to make at this position for a good long while.

Last week: 16⬌

• • •

The post SEC QB Rankings, Week 5: Diego Pavia is not an underdog anymore appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Ask not for whom the Hogs call

As of this writing, Sam Pittman is still employed as Arkansas’ head coach. By the time you read it, who knows? Barring a miracle, the only question at this point is timing.

Pittman might linger for a while yet. Locally, speculation following Saturday’s gut-wrenching, 32-31 loss at Memphis honed in on a clause in his contract that would reduce the cost of his buyout — currently estimated at $9.3 million — by 50% if his overall record as head coach falls below .500. (The clause excludes the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Pittman’s first year on the job.) The Razorbacks are 29-26 in the relevant time span, meaning they would have to fall 4 games below the Mendoza line over the next 2 months against a schedule in which they project as likely underdogs in all 8 remaining games, give or take a Nov. 1 visit from Mississippi State. There are exactly 4 games between now and then, the next 3 against ranked opponents.

That’s the kind of grim math they’ve been reduced to. Even in the midst of a season in which their dynamic senior quarterback, Taylen Green, leads the nation in total offense, the only number that matters is the cost of turning the page.

On the field, the really frustrating part is that, flip the outcome of just a couple plays the past 2 weeks, and it’s easy to imagine a timeline where Taylen Green has favorable Heisman odds on a 4-0 team that’s rallying around its head coach rather than counting down the days until his demise. But then, the Hogs’ tendency to let winnable games slip through their fingers is a prime source of frustration, too. And right up to the end, the loss at Memphis was about as winnable as they come. Arkansas led by 18 points in the first half, boasting a win probability (according to ESPN Analytics) as high as 95.2% late in the 2nd quarter. Even after Memphis rallied to take an improbable, 1-point lead in the 4th quarter courtesy of a 65-yard touchdown run, the pendulum swung immediately back to the Razorbacks, who responded by promptly driving inside the Tigers’ 20-yard line with 1:30 remaining on the clock.

At that point, a first down could have effectively ended the game. They didn’t even need a touchdown: 3 kneel-downs followed by a chip-shot field goal would have left the Tigers with no timeouts and virtually no time to respond. Arkansas’ win probability stood at 89.5%, and in real time felt higher. A harrowing win, for sure. A win that was closer than it needed to be, in a game that should never have required shifting out of cruise control after halftime. A win that left more questions than answers, that felt more like an escape than something to build on ahead of the SEC gauntlet. But still, in the end, a win that would keep the cloud looming over Pittman’s fate at bay for at least one more week.

Short of botching a no-brainer field goal, there was really only one way left for the Hogs to blow it. Right on cue, they did exactly that. Running back Mike Washington Jr. exposed the ball lunging for the pivotal first down inside the 10-yard line, losing it when a defender punched it out of his outstretched hand; the Tigers pounced for their 3rd and most crucial takeaway of the day. Still needing a first down of their own to put the comeback on ice, Memphis got it in the most insulting possible fashion, bringing backup quarterback Arrington Maiden off the bench for his first and only snap — a 3rd-and-8 plunge into the middle of the line on which Maiden literally dragged the SEC’s heaviest player, 387-pound Arkansas nose tackle Ian Geffrard, a full 10 yards across the line to gain.

Coming on the heels of last week’s 41-35 heartbreaker at Ole Miss, the loss in Memphis marked the second week in a row that Arkansas racked up 500 yards of total offense, only to burst into flames on defense and gack up a fumble on the potential game-winning drive. Hogs fans could only be so disappointed by any of that. But blowing a 3-score lead, then getting visibly bullied with the game on the line by a Group of 5 underdog that simply wanted it more? That felt like the moment the air really went out of the tires.

At this stage of the proceedings, the the prevailing sentiment is resignation. On some level, the end might even come (whenever it comes) as a relief. Pittman is well-liked and respected for salvaging the program from the smoking crater of the Chad Morris years, but the locals have been conspicuously checking their watches pretty much from the moment he signed his current deal in the summer of 2022. Since then, the Razorbacks are 7-18 in SEC play with only 1 win anybody outside of the state remembers, a 19-14 upset over Tennessee last October. That win might have saved Pittman’s job for another year, but to what end? His boss, athletic director Hunter Yurachek, just last week conceded to an audience of boosters that — unlike in baseball and men’s basketball — “we’re not set up to win a national championship” in football due to a lack of resources compared to the top half of the conference. Implicitly, he was also conceding that the folks willing to cut checks for a hoops team coached by John Calipari don’t see nearly the same potential for return on investment in a football team coached by Sam Pittman.

Now, it’s just a matter of how much longer they’re willing to let this already wayward campaign run its course. An open date looms between this weekend’s date against Notre Dame (the Razorbacks opened as 6.5-point home underdogs via ESPNBet) and an Oct. 11 trip to Tennessee. The next one falls on the second weekend of November, ahead of a brutal closing stretch against LSU, Texas and Missouri. Is there any reason to allow Pittman to linger that long? For the sake of salvaging bowl eligibility if the team fares well enough? For the sake of saving a few bucks on his buyout if it doesn’t? Either way, it’s only prolonging the inevitable. Sooner or later, the specter of Interim Head Coach Bobby Petrino is a prophecy which must be fulfilled.

Florida: The Final Countdown

Oh wow: Another Monday, another obituary for the Billy Napier era at Florida. What fresh hell awaits us this week?

I will hand it to the Gators for this: They do keep coming up with creative new ways to plumb the depths offensively. The last time we saw them, face-of-the-program quarterback DJ Lagway was melting down at LSU, where he served up 5 interceptions on the worst night of his career, by far. Against all odds, Saturday’s 26-7 flop at Miami was another giant step backward. Often literally: Florida opened the game by losing yardage on its first 3 plays from scrimmage, setting the tone for an all-time disaster of a first half in which the offense went 3-and-out on 5 of 6 possessions. The Gators went to the locker room with 32 yards, a single first down, a long gain of 8 yards, and zero 3rd-down conversions.

The second half was only a marginal improvement, and only then due to a heroic, 80-yard touchdown drive to open the half that generated Florida’s only points as well as the majority of both its first downs and total yards on the night. Lagway, under constant duress from start to finish, averaged a depressing 2.7 yards per attempt, on an average depth of target of just 3.8 yards, per Pro Football Focus; he was 0-for-4 on attempts of 10+ yards, and didn’t even attempt a pass of 20+ air yards. He didn’t have time. In addition to being sacked 5 times, Lagway was harassed on such a consistent basis that any ball that didn’t leave his hands almost immediately was a disaster waiting to happen. Normally, I’d advise taking PFF grades with a grain of salt, o-line grades especially. But in this case, they paint a portrait of a front in total disarray:

FLORIDA OFFENSIVE LINE: PFF PASS-BLOCKING GRADES vs. MIAMI
• Jake Slaughter: 70.6 (29 pass-blocking snaps at C)
• Knijeah Harris: 34.9 (29 snaps at LG)
• Austin Barber: 17.0 (29 snaps at LT)
• Caden Jones: 11.2 (17 snaps at RT)
• Roderick Kearney: 7.8 (16 snaps at RG)
• Damieon George Jr.: 0.0 (13 snaps at RG)
• Bryce Lovett: 0.0 (12 snaps at RT)

The average grade is around 60.0, just for context. Jake Slaughter is an All-American who’s going to play for a long time in the NFL. As for the rest, I glance at these grades on a weekly basis and have never seen anything like the concentration of red ink spilled over this performance. Miami edge rushers Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor alone were credited with a combined 19 QB pressures at this group’s expense, often with both creating havoc on the same play. This is a crime scene.

Bain and Mesidor are going to make a lot of opposing linemen look bad and already have; they’re not going to hold many of them to 0-for-13 on 3rd-down conversions, or to their worst offensive output since 1999.

Normally, this is where you’d say “at least there’s nowhere to go but up” on the other side of an open date in Week 5. But after the past 3 weeks — a direct descent from a 16-point debacle against USF to a 5-INT nightmare in Baton Rouge to a wholesale collapse at Miami — any assurances that the course is due for a correction ring hollow. Three of the next 4 games on the other side of the open date are against Texas, Texas A&M (in College Station) and Georgia. If we learned anything new from the Gators’ ongoing skid, it’s that it can always get worse. Now it’s just a matter of how long they’re going to keep Napier around to endure it.

Sacks are a quarterback stat, Jackson Arnold Edition

For a unit on the wrong end of a record-setting sack total, Auburn’s pass protection in a 24-17 loss at Oklahoma wasn’t quite the catastrophe it felt like in real time. Per PFF, Jackson Arnold was under duress on just 14 of his 49 drop-backs on the afternoon — a 28.6% pressure rate, about average. Nothing remarkable about that number.

What was remarkable was the Sooners’ finish rate: 10 of those 14 pressures actually resulted in sacks, good for an astronomical pressure-to-sack ratio of 78.6%. (PFF credited Oklahoma with 2 more sacks than the official box score, presumably counting a pair of sacks that were wiped off the ledger by holding penalties against Auburn; for consistency’s sake here I’m going with the official box score.) For context, the median pressure-to-sack ratio in the SEC this season is about 15%. The fact that 9 different OU defenders got in on the sack party contributed to the impression that Arnold was being hounded from all directions all afternoon, as did the fact that a few of the takedowns — especially a couple of dominant reps by future pro R Mason Thomas in the second half — were the kind that tend to leave a lasting impression of the quarterback as a sitting duck. More often, the reality is that Arnold’s internal clock is running a tick or two too slow.

Sacks are a recurring issue for Arnold, as Oklahoma fans already knew well. As the Sooners’ starter in 2024, he was among the most sacked quarterbacks in the country despite playing in only 9 games. In his defense, he was under more than his fair share of heat in that role, facing pressure on 40.4% of his drop-backs for a team that was frequently in comeback mode; still, his pressure-to-sack ratio (27.3%) was the worst among regular SEC starters. After Saturday, that number for 2025 now stands at 51.5%, easily the worst in the FBS despite enjoying better protection so far at Auburn than he ever did at OU.

Here’s an idea for keeping him upright: Run the dang ball. A big part of the optimism that followed the Tigers’ season-opening, 38-24 win at Baylor was the fact that it didn’t require Arnold to be something he’s clearly not at this stage of his career, a conventional pocket passer. Instead, Auburn gashed the Bears for 321 yards rushing on 6.3 per carry, with Arnold and his top running backs, Damari Alston and Jeremiah Cobb, splitting 16 carries apiece. Meanwhile, Arnold put the ball in the air only 17 times, and only 4 times beyond 10+ air yards. He was in his element in a run-first attack that emphasized his mobility.

Contrast that with Saturday’s exhibition of chuck-and-duck. In a close, competitive game in front of a jacked-up crowd hooting for Arnold’s scalp, Cobb and Alston combined for a grand total of 13 carries for 86 yards, half of that number coming on a grown-man run by Cobb in the 3rd quarter. He broke 5 tackles on that play alone, then didn’t touch the ball again until the last-gasp drive that ended in a game-clinching safety.

Granted, Auburn can’t roll into Oklahoma expecting to bully a Brent Venables defense the way it did Baylor’s in Waco. But it certainly can’t expect anything good to come from Arnold dropping back 49 times in a hostile SEC road environment, either. Somewhere in between the ideal run/pass ratio on display in the opener and Saturday’s sack-fest in Norman lies a sustainable balance. Hugh Freeze‘s job might depend now on how quickly he can find it.

Reffer Madness

I hate dwelling on officiating, I really do. Just think about the number of dubious calls on any given Saturday as a matter of course. Then again, think about how bad one of those calls has to be to force the league office to actually admit publicly that the refs got it wrong. The negligence that allowed Oklahoma’s first touchdown against Auburn was that bad.

There is “wide open,” and then there is “suspiciously wide open.” As soon as he appeared on the screen, Isaiah Sategna III fell into the latter column, for good reason. Late Saturday night, the SEC released a statement confirming what irate Auburn fans were yelling at their televisions: The play was an illegal version of the “hideout” tactic, explicitly banned in the rulebook. Per Rule 9-2, Article 2, Paragraph (B): “No simulated replacements or substitutions may be used to confuse opponents. No tactic associated with substitutes or the substitution process may be used to confuse opponents. This includes the hideout tactic with or without a substitution.” (Emphasis added.) “If properly officiated,” the statement goes on, the touchdown would have been wiped out and “resulted in a team unsportsmanlike conduct penalty of 15 yards assessed from the previous spot.” The officiating crew will receive “appropriate accountability” for the mistake, the nature of which was left unspecified. If Auburn fans had a vote, presumably it would involve renting out the side judge as a piñata.

A free touchdown for the side that went on to win by exactly 7 points is, obviously, a pretty big bone of contention. But for my money it wasn’t necessarily the most dubious call of the game, or even the most dubious involving Isaiah Sategna. On Oklahoma’s first offensive possession, Sategna corralled a screen pass from QB John Mateer, took 2 steps upfield, and lost control of the ball while being wrangled to the ground by Auburn DB Jahquez Robinson; the loose ball was scooped up by Tigers’ Kayin Lee, who returned it 65 yards for an apparent Auburn touchdown just 5 minutes into the game. Not so fast, my friend. Upon further review: Incomplete pass, Oklahoma retains possession. The Sooners went on to knock through a field goal to open the scoring.

For possibly the first time ever, I can sympathize with Freeze. It was actually difficult to make any kind of determination from the broadcast whether Sategna ever had complete control of the ball, given that the replay angles were almost exclusively focused on whether he regained possession before contact with the ground popped it loose. (I would argue that the very fact it popped loose is proof enough that he did not.) But if the question boils down to whether Sategna made a “football move” with possession, well, those initial 2 steps when he changes his course from horizontal to vertical sure look like a football move to me. Either way, was anything about that review conclusive enough to overturn the initial call on the field of a fumble? The “rules analyst” on the broadcast apparently agreed with the reversal, although notably not until after it had already been announced; I didn’t. To my eyes, taken along with the illegal hideout touchdown later in the first half, those 2 calls amounted to a 14-point swing in favor of the Sooners.

Now, that’s not the same thing as saying the game itself swung on those calls, especially considering how early they occurred. But it’s worth mentioning as part of what was frankly a sloppily officiated game throughout. Auburn’s list of grievances against the refs also included an obvious pass interference penalty that went uncalled at a crucial moment in the 4th quarter because the official who would have thrown the flag was too busy scurrying out of the path of the ball to see it. That one proved irrelevant as the offense went on to score a go-ahead touchdown on that possession anyway, thanks in part to an obvious pass interference penalty a few plays later that was called, extending the drive on 4th down.

In the end, there were far too many self-inflicted wounds (see above and below) to justify the Tigers blaming the loss on anyone but themselves. But even the people responsible for overseeing the refs had to admit the refs gave them plenty of excuses.

Dude of the Week: Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy

How did the recruitniks miss on Hardy? A small-town product from rural Mississippi — a part of the state I’m familiar with, so trust me when I say rural, I mean about as country as it gets — he went almost completely unnoticed by the recruiting sites until 247Sports assigned him a token rating when he signed with UL-Monroe in December 2023. He was an immediate hit at ULM as a true freshman, running for 1,351 yards and 13 touchdowns, the vast majority of that total coming after contact. Per PFF, the only FBS backs who forced more missed tackles in 2024 than Hardy were Ashton Jeanty and Cam Skattebo.

As a sophomore, he might be in a class by himself. Through 4 games at Mizzou, Hardy leads the nation in both missed tackles forced (37) and yards after contact (458), numbers that — based on the Tigers’ 29-20 win over South Carolina — are not going to suffer in the transition to SEC competition.

Hardy ran 22 times for 138 yards against the Gamecocks (118 yards after contact), a week after going off for 250 yards (177 after contact) against Louisiana. As a team, Missouri is No. 2 nationally in rushing yards behind only Indiana, with Hardy and fellow sophomore Jamal Roberts both averaging north of 7.0 yards per carry.

Dud of the Week: Auburn’s special teams

Auburn’s issues in the kicking game nagged at them in close games throughout last season, and based on Saturday, help is not on the way.

The woes began at the start of the 2nd quarter, when a booming, 66-yard bomb of a punt by Oklahoma’s Grayson Miller sent Auburn return man Malcolm Simmons drifting back toward his end zone. Instead of letting the ball drop for a touchback, Simmons inexplicably fielded it over his shoulder as his momentum carried him across the goal line. (At least he actually did manage to field it.) He reversed course just in time to be swarmed at the 3-yard line.

The offense made some headway on the ensuing possession before a slapstick succession of sacks and penalties resulted in a 4th-and-33 from the Auburn 24-yard line. Then, another disaster as onomatopoeically-named punter Hudson Kaak was forced to corral a low, wide snap at his feet. Rolling to his left after fielding the ball, Kaak declined to attempt a desperation kick in favor of … well, just plain desperation.

Oklahoma capitalized on the gift 2 plays later on the controversial touchdown pass from Mateer to Sategna discussed above.

In the 3rd quarter, the Tigers missed an opportunity to tie the game when a 50-yard field goal attempt by backup kicker Connor Gibbs sailed wide late — a familiar feeling. Field-goal angst was a recurring theme in 2024 after starting kicker Alex McPherson was diagnosed with a serious intestinal issue, and with McPherson still struggling to get back to 100%, putting the ball through the uprights remains as uncertain as ever.

Notebook

1.) Vandy: We see you. The Commodores’ 70-21 massacre over Georgia State was another milestone win for an outfit making a habit of them in the early going. Avenging a 2024 loss to GSU, the final score marked the first time Vanderbilt has hung 70 points on any opponent since 1918, if you even consider college football circa World War I to be same sport. That was 107 years ago! On Saturday, Vandy scored touchdowns on 7 of its first 8 offensive possessions before QB Diego Pavia exited the game, added another TD on a blocked punt, and ultimately outgained GSU by 346 yards.

The ‘Dores are serious. Their 4th blowout in as many games moved them up to 18th in the updated AP poll, just 1 spot below Alabama. (Vanderbilt plays at Bama in Week 6, a grudge match that’s shaping up as possibly the most anticipated Vandy game in living memory.) So far, Vandy’s average margin of victory now stands at 29.5 points. The last time Vandy averaged 29.5 points per game, total: 2013, when it put up 30.1 ppg en route to a 9-4 finish that got coach James Franklin hired away by Penn State.

2.) John Mateer: Confirmed dude. There were not many moments in Oklahoma’s slugfest of a win over Auburn that made me think “there goes the Heisman favorite,” but in a pinch Mateer continues to be exactly the guy the Sooners bet that he would be. After an ugly first half on Saturday, he finished 16-for-17 passing over OU’s last 4 possessions, which yielded 2 field goals and — after Auburn rallied to take a late, 22-17 lead — the winning touchdown courtesy of Mateer’s legs. Altogether, he was 4-for-7 on attempts of 20+ air yards, including a sensational connection with Isaiah Sategna that set up the decisive score with a little over 5 minutes to play. If he makes that throw again in November in a game with Playoff implications, yeah, it’s going on the Heisman reel.

The biggest concern about Mateer might be what kind of shape he’s going to be in by November. The man is doing everything, accounting for an impressive/alarming 81.6% of Oklahoma’s total offense through 4 games, easily the highest individual share in the SEC. In wins over Michigan and Auburn, that number is over 90% — simply unsustainable. The Sooners’ conventional, non-Mateer-based rushing attack was nonexistent in both of those games. An open date followed by an open scrimmage against Kent State in Week 6 is a perfect opportunity to take stock of the running back situation before wading into the deep end of the schedule.

3.) Cam Coleman: Confirmed problem. Coleman’s presence was Auburn’s one and only excuse for allowing Jackson Arnold air it out. On 8 targets, Coleman came down with a pair of deep balls covering 46 yards and 42 yards, respectively; hauled in a short touchdown reception on a goal-line fade; forced 2 pass interference penalties at the expense of true freshman OU cornerback Courtland Guillory; drew what should have been a 3rd DPI on the egregious no-call discussed above; and had what should have been a wide-open TD go through his fingers on a badly overthrown ball in the end zone.

This guy is going to make a lot of money catching passes from an NFL quarterback one day. He should be a lock to join Auburn’s short list of 1,000-yard receivers — if not the first to crack 1,100. At the rate it’s going, Auburn should probably start worrying that he’s not willing to wait until he actually gets to the NFL to do it.

4.) If you had Auburn +6.5, woof. Oklahoma’s game-clinching sack extended a 5-point OU lead to 7, securing the bad beat of the year to date. Careful betting on coll… – [tackled mid-sentence and hustled into the back of a van by our sponsors…]

5.) Given the state of the Arch Manning Discourse, I knew Arch must have enjoyed something like a flawless outing against Sam Houston State when I went to bed on Saturday night without having encountered a single errant throw on social media. The box score confirmed it: Manning finished 18-for-21 passing for 309 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 55-0 blowout that was even more lopsided in the details than the final score implies. (The Longhorns outgained the Bearkats by nearly 500 yards, 607 to 113, with Manning exiting the game midway through the 3rd quarter.) He ran for a couple of scores, as well, 1 of which supplied the viral highlight of the night when Manning taunted a prone defender in the end zone — not enough to draw a flag from the officials, but more than enough to earn a stern lecture from Mom. Everybody’s a critic.

6.) I’m going to save my Trinidad Chambliss takes for the weekly QB rankings, where — spoiler alert — he will almost certainly be replacing Austin Simmons as Ole Miss’ starter following a couple of gonzo performances against Arkansas and Tulane. Just a word of advice in the meantime: Don’t make the rookie mistake of asking how this guy wound up at Ferris State.

Moment of Zen of the Week

The post Monday Down South: Sam Pittman just arrived in purgatory. Billy Napier is already somewhere worse appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Game of the Week: Auburn at Oklahoma (-6.5)

The stakes: Who gets to keep their job? The conference opener is always a tone-setter for the rest of the season, but in this case the tone is a bell tolling for the losing coach.

Hugh Freeze and Brent Venables share more than just the hot seat. After presiding over losing records in 2024 — including identical 2-6 finishes in the SEC standings — both coaches found themselves facing steep schedules in ’25 with rosters that rank a notch or two below the league’s elite and rapidly shrinking margins for error. Responding to dismal returns on offense, both staked their future on a wild-card quarterback transfer with intriguing selling points and just as many question marks.

Heisman favorite John Mateer arrived at Oklahoma last winter fresh off a prolific but obscure campaign at Washington State, where he put up eye-opening numbers against mostly marginal competition. Venables bet the farm on Mateer and his former Wazzu offensive coordinator, Ben Arbuckle-, and got out of the way. The guy Mateer replaced in Norman, Jackson Arnold, entered the portal from the opposite direction — a bust by any measure as OU’s starter, but still a 5-star talent whose best performance by far in 2024 spoiled Alabama’s Playoff push in late November. Who better for Freeze to ride or die with in a do-or-die year than a dual-threat with a verified ambush of Bama?

From the moment he landed at Auburn, this date was destined to be billed as the Jackson Arnold Grudge Match, whether Arnold actually feels that way about it or not. (For now, he says not. If Auburn wins in the stadium where he was unceremoniously benched exactly 1 year ago, I’d bet by Saturday evening he’ll be saying something else.) Beyond the personal stakes, though, both sides have a lot riding on getting off on the right foot in conference play. The winners will emerge 4-0, with Playoff hopes intact and a significant cushion against the negativity that quickly descended on both programs last year. The losers will be on their heels with a difficult schedule looming — a brutal schedule, in Oklahoma’s case — and the murmur of torches and pitchforks in the distance. It’s a long year, but the team that starts off in the wrong direction risks finding it very difficult to reverse course.

The stat: 17.1%

That’s the 3rd-down conversion rate of opposing offenses against Oklahoma’s defense, the lowest rate in the SEC and 4th-best nationally. The Sooners have allowed just 7 conversions on 41 attempts, including holding Michigan to 3-for-14 on 3rd down in their Week 2 win over the Wolverines.

In fact, for all the attention on Oklahoma’s revamped offense, the defense is off to a dominant start across the board. Through 3 weeks, the Sooners also lead the SEC in total defense, scoring defense, passing defense, pass efficiency defense, yards per play allowed, available yards allowed and red-zone defense, having yet to allow a touchdown on 3 red-zone opportunities. (So far, the only touchdown OU has allowed in any context was the 75-yard run by Michigan’s Justice Haynes on the first play of the second half.) The only column they haven’t dominated: Takeaways. Unusually for a Brent Venables unit, Oklahoma is the only SEC defense that has yet to record a turnover.

The big question: Does Oklahoma have a functional offensive line?

This time last year, the Sooners made the trip to Auburn with a single healthy wide receiver remaining from the preseason 2-deep. This year, the plague has struck the o-line.

The opening-day starter at center, 5th-year senior Troy Everett, is out for the season with a knee injury. His backup, Stanford transfer Jake Maikkula, is listed as “questionable.” The opening-day starter at left tackle, senior Jacob Sexton, has missed the past 2 games and remains out indefinitely; his backup, true freshman Michael Fasusi, is listed as questionable (ankle) after sitting out last week’s trip to Temple. Senior guard Febechi Nwaiwu, the most experienced OL on the roster and the only one who has started all three games, is questionable. Third-string center Owen Hollenbeck, a true freshman in line for his first career start in place of Maikkula, is banged up himself (listed as probable). Veteran tackle Jake Taylor is out indefinitely.

The upshot: All 5 stations could be manned on Saturday by a different starter than in the opener, a remarkable rate of attrition in just a few weeks. Despite an abundance of experienced options coming into the season, the starting 5 could plausibly feature 3 true freshmen: Fasusi at left tackle, Hollenbeck at center (pending the status of Maikkula), and Ryan Fodje at right guard (pending the status of Nwaiwu). The initial outlook this week was optimistic for Fasusi, a 5-star rated as the No. 1 incoming tackle in the 2025 class. He’ll be a fixture on the blind side soon enough. But for now, opposite Keldric Faulk and the rest of a fully stocked Auburn d-line, that is where the optimism ends.

The key matchup: Auburn WR Cam Coleman vs. Oklahoma CB Courtland Guillory

Coleman, one of the most coveted recruits at Auburn in the online rankings era, needs no introduction after breaking out late last year as a freshman. If he’s off to a relatively quiet start in Year 2 (10 catches for 149 yards over the first 3 games), it’s only because the Tigers haven’t been in the market for downfield fireworks in games they’ve largely controlled in the trenches. When they have dialed Coleman’s number, he’s answered, including a 32-yard touchdown in last week’s win over South Alabama with a defender’s hand literally in his face.

With last year’s bout of the dropsies apparently behind him, the only question about Coleman is whether he’s being targeted enough. And with fellow wideout Eric Singleton Jr. nursing a hip pointer, this is the weekend that question figures to be answered early and often.

Guillory, a true freshman rated in the bottom half of Oklahoma’s incoming class, is an unknown by comparison. But maybe not for long. Three games into his OU career, he’s already on the breakout track, replacing injured sophomore Eli Bowen in the starting lineup with no apparent drop-off. Per PFF, 10 attempts in Guillory’s direction this season have yielded just two receptions for 12 yards; against Michigan, he shut out the Wolverines’ top wideout, Donaven McCulley, holding him without a catch on four head-to-head targets. Coleman is a significant step up in degree of difficulty, but based on the early returns Guillory is prepared to give as good as he gets.

The verdict …

It would be nice to know before venturing a pick exactly how many teenage o-linemen are going to be standing between John Mateer and Auburn’s defensive front. But Mateer himself has all the makings of a star. He looked the part in Oklahoma’s Week 2 win over Michigan — that is, like Sooner fans expected Jackson Arnold to look in the same role last year — and is currently accounting for nearly 80% of the team’s total offense as a rusher and passer. The real wild card is Arnold. He impressed with his mobility in Auburn’s Week 1 win at Baylor, and hasn’t set off any alarms in subsequent wins over Ball State and South Alabama. Beating his old team would be a milestone in what could still wind up being a long and productive career. Either way, we’re going to find out exactly how far along he is on that journey.

Prediction: • Oklahoma 28, Auburn 19

Florida at Miami (-9.5)

The Gators are in panic mode over DJ Lagway‘s 5-interception meltdown at LSU, as they should be. In a game the defense did everything it could to give Florida a chance to win, Lagway suddenly looked like a guy on the fast track to Bust City. If he reaches his destination, Billy Napier is toast. The open date on the other side of the trip to Miami already feels ominous.

But the other quarterback in this game, former Georgia QB Carson Beck, has experience singing the INT Blues, too. The last time he faced Florida, he memorably served up 3 interceptions in a game almost no one though would be close, giving the Gators life even after Lagway exited the game in the first half due to injury; Georgia didn’t pull away in the Cocktail Party until late, tacking 2 touchdowns in the final 5 minutes to win 34-20. That was part of an alarming midseason stretch in which Beck was picked a dozen times in a span of 5 games, including losses at Alabama and Ole Miss. He got the giveaways under control down the stretch, but the offense never really found its rhythm again. You can point to many reasons Beck ultimately portaled out of Athens, but in retrospect, the seeds were planted in the Cocktail Party.

Of course, that was last year. This year, Beck is off to a sizzling start as a ‘Cane, with a pair of ranked wins already under his belt over Notre Dame and South Florida — the same South Florida that sent the Gators into their latest tailspin on a walk-off field goal in Week 2. Miami annihilated the Bulls in Week 3, 49-12, with Beck throwing for 340 yards and 3 touchdowns (and, yes, 2 interceptions, his first of the year). Florida’s defense isn’t nearly that flammable, but if Lagway can’t get his worst tendencies under control, it won’t matter.

Prediction: • Miami 30, Florida 17

South Carolina at Missouri (-9.5)

South Carolina upgraded LaNorris Sellers‘ status on Thursday to “probable,” clearing the way for him to play after he was knocked out of last week’s 31-7 loss to Vanderbilt with an apparent concussion. The Gamecocks didn’t score again after Sellers’ exit against Vandy, and it was difficult to see how they were going to manage at Mizzou with Sellers on ice. Assuming he’s back to looking more or less like his usual self, Sellers gives them a chance in the Mayor’s Cup. The update to his status immediately knocked a point off the spread.

Now, the question is how Carolina will hold up against a surging Missouri ground game. The Tigers have finished with multiple 100-yard rushers in each of their past 2 games, with 3 different backs — Ahmad Hardy, Jamal Roberts and Marquise Davis — sharing the honors. Hardy, a sophomore transfer from UL-Monroe, has exceeded very high offseason expectations, piling up 462 yards and 5 touchdowns on 8.1 yards per carry over the first 3 games; the lion’s share of that total came last week in a 250-yard bonanza against Louisiana, the only individual 200-yard rushing by an FBS back so far this season. South Carolina, obviously, represents a stiffer challenge than the Ragin’ Cajuns. But between Hardy, QB Beau Pribula and WR Kevin Coleman Jr., Mizzou’s big-ticket portal additions are already paying off in spades.

Prediction: • Missouri 31, South Carolina 20

Tulane at Ole Miss (-13.5)

Somebody’s got to claim the automatic Playoff slot reserved for the Group of 5. Why not the Green Wave?

The ticket is wide open for the taking. Following USF’s wipeout loss at Miami, only 6 unbeaten teams remain in the G5 ranks, 4 of them from the American Athletic Conference. Out of that group, the clear frontrunners are the usual suspects, Tulane and Memphis, both of which face their stiffest tests of the season this weekend against SEC opponents. (Crucially, they’ll also face off in Memphis on Nov. 7, and potentially again in the AAC Championship Game.) The Wave made a statement in Week 3 in a 34-27 win over Duke, which paid an exorbitant sum to make Tulane’s starting quarterback in 2024, Darian Mensah, a Blue Devil in ’25. That investment did not pay off against his former team.

An upset in Oxford would secure Tulane’s status as a CFP contender with a bullet; if that’s too much to ask, a competitive outing will suffice to keep them in the mix.

Prediction: Ole Miss 35, • Tulane 23

Arkansas (-7.5) at Memphis

Arkansas’ 41-35 loss at Ole Miss in Week 3 felt like a preview of the rest of the Hogs’ season: A gonzo statistical effort by quarterback Taylen Green, signifying nothing opposite a flammable Razorbacks defense. Eight of Arkansas’ 9 offensive possessions in Oxford ended inside the Ole Miss 35-yard line, resulting in 5 touchdowns,2 missed field goals (equaling the final margin in a 6-point loss), and a killer fumble to end the night. For his part, Green accounted for 305 yards passing, 115 more on the ground, 2 touchdowns, and a 96.0 QBR rating, best among SEC starters in Week 3. According to ESPN’s Win Probability metric, the Razorbacks’ chances peaked just before halftime at 37.5%.

It’s just going to be that kind of year. Through 3 weeks, Green ranks No. 1 or No. 2 nationally in total offense, total touchdowns, Total QBR and EPA, as well as rushing yards by a quarterback. Even at that pace, though, at this point the best the Hogs can hope for is that it’s enough juice to put them on the right side of enough shootouts to eke out a trip to a bowl game — likely with an interim head coach at the helm.

Prediction: • Arkansas 36, Memphis 24

UAB at Tennessee (-38.5)

Fewer championship-winning quarterbacks go on to become successful coaches than you might assume. This game features two exceptions: Tennessee’s Josh Heupel is 1 of only 2 active head coaches (along with UCF’s Scott Frost) whose résumé includes a national championship as a starting quarterback, and UAB’s Trent Dilfer is the only active head coach who has even taken a snap in a Super Bowl. In fact, Heupel and Dilfer won their respective rings in the same month, January 2001, in championship games hosted by the same state: Florida, which was also then at the center of a national imbroglio over hanging chads. If you’re too young to get that reference, might I recommend some light garbage time reading that I guarantee will be more enlightening than anything happening in Neyland Stadium.

Prediction: • Tennessee 52, UAB 10

Sam Houston at Texas (-39.5)

Texas would like to put the Arch Manning Discourse to bed (or at least down for a nap) heading into an open date in Week 5. One way to accomplish that would be to defy the haters, let Arch cook against an outmanned opponent, and hold your breath he doesn’t set off the smoke alarms for the second week in a row. Another would be to put him in oven mitts and call 55 handoffs in an effort to limit the potential for scrutiny for the next couple weeks. Or they could just, like, run a normal game plan that balances run and pass as usual and doesn’t acknowledge outside expectations at all. But where is the narrative potential in that?

Prediction: Texas 41, • Sam Houston 7

Georgia State at Vanderbilt (-27.5)

Georgia State dealt Vandy its only nonconference loss in 2024, a wild, 36-32 decision featuring 5 4th-quarter touchdowns and 2 lead changes in the final minute-and-a-half. At that point, the Commodores were still at the beginning of their ascent from the basement, and losing to a rando outfit from the Sun Belt merely set them back a step or two before they finally barged their way into the kitchen a few weeks later against Alabama. A year later, the ‘Dores are ranked, coming off back-to-back blowouts over Virginia Tech and South Carolina, and looking forward to a Week 6 rematch at Bama with actual stakes. If they’re not 5-0 going into Tuscaloosa, this time it will be a sincere disappointment.

Prediction: Vanderbilt 34, • Georgia State 13

Northern Illinois at Mississippi State (-21.5)

When the Bulldogs put Northern Illinois on the schedule, they were signing up for an easy win over a nondescript MAC doormat. Lately, though, NIU hasn’t made anything easy: Dating back to last season, the Huskies’ past 14 games have all been decided by 14 points or less, with their largest margin of defeat in that span coming by just 11 points. That run includes their historic, 16-14 win at Notre Dame last September; a competitive, 24-17 loss at NC State a few weeks later; a 20-9 loss at Maryland in Week 2 of this year; and 4 others games in the meantime decided by 3 points or less or in overtime. Mississippi State, still basking in its dramatic Week 2 upset over Arizona State, is feeling pretty good about itself and its prospects for bowl eligibility as it wraps up the nonconference slate. But before they take 4-0 for granted, the Bulldogs had better strap in for a 4-quarter fight.

Prediction: Mississippi State 31, • Northern Illinois 14

SE Louisiana at LSU (n/a)

LSU’s wins over Clemson and Florida were arguably its 2 best defensive performances since the pandemic. Now the problem is the offense. Not that hanging a fat number on an FCS patsy will solve any of the Tigers’ problems, but if Brian Kelly can get through a postgame press conference without feeling compelled to challenge a reporter to step inside the octagon, he’ll take it.

Prediction: LSU 48, SE Louisiana 3

Scoreboard

Week 3 record: 10-2 straight-up | 6-5 vs. spread
Season record: 35-8 straight-up | 19-20 vs. spread

The post Week 4 SEC Primer: Auburn-Oklahoma sets the tone for 2 coaches (and 1 QB) squarely on the hot seat appeared first on Saturday Down South.

1. John Mateer, Oklahoma

In 3 games as a Sooner, Mateer has accounted for roughly 78% of OU’s total offense, easily the highest individual share in the conference and among the highest in the nation. That’s slightly higher even than his 2024 share at Washington State, which came in at 75% in the regular season. (He didn’t play in the Cougars’ bowl game.) I would say it’s unsustainably high, especially over the course of a fully loaded SEC schedule. But then, it’s early still to be imposing limits on what the Heisman betting favorite might be capable of.

Last week: 1

2. Taylen Green, Arkansas

Arkansas’ 41-35 loss at Ole Miss felt like a preview of the rest of Green’s season: A gonzo statistical effort signifying nothing opposite a flammable Razorbacks defense. All but 1 of the Hogs’ 9 offensive possessions in Oxford ended inside the Ole Miss 35-yard line, resulting in 5 touchdowns, 2 missed field goals (equaling the final margin in a 6-point loss), and a killer fumble to end the night. For his part, Green accounted for 305 yards passing, 115 more on the ground, 2 touchdowns and a 96.0 QBR rating, best among SEC starters in Week 3. According to ESPN’s Win Probability metric, Arkansas’ chances peaked just before halftime at 37.5%.

Looks like it’s just gonna be that kind of year. Through 3 weeks, Green ranks No. 1 or 2 nationally in total offense, total touchdowns, Total QBR and EPA, as well as rushing yards by a quarterback. Even at that pace, though, at this point the best the Hogs can hope for is that it’s enough juice to put them on the right side of enough shootouts to eke out a trip to a bowl game — likely with an interim head coach at the helm.

Last week: 5

3. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt

Pavia is never going to break the bank statistically, or suddenly wake up one morning as a first-round prospect. He just keeps getting the job done. Saturday’s 31-7 romp at South Carolina was his 7th win at Vandy in a game the ‘Dores were tabbed as underdogs, and the most convincing. It was Vanderbilt’s first win by 20+ points over an SEC opponent since 2018; first win in an SEC opener since 2011; and first road win over a ranked opponent since 2007. On Sunday, Vandy debuted at No. 20 in the AP poll, its highest ranking at any point since the 2008 team climbed to No. 13 on the strength of a 5-0 start.

The ’08 team turned out to be a forgettable outfit that went on to finish unranked after losing 6 of its last 8 . This team? TBD. But the outlook is certainly better than “forgettable.” If nothing else, after outscoring Virginia Tech and South Carolina by a combined 65-7 over the last 6 quarters — both on the road — the underdog narrative is giving way to straight-up respect. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Vandy a 27.8% chance to make the Playoff! (ESPNBet lists Vandy’s odds to make the Playoff at +1100.) And that number is only going to keep going up over the next few weeks, with presumptive wins over Georgia State and Utah State clearing the way to 5-0 heading into a Week 6 grudge match at Alabama. As it is, just getting the Commodores to the point where they can look forward to a meaningful October game at Bama as anything other than spoilers might have already clinched Pavia’s case for the title of best quarterback in school history.

Last week: 4

4. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Brian Kelly made a point of dressing down a reporter on Saturday night for leading off the postgame press conference with a question about the Tigers’ struggles on offense. Which, fine: A 10-point win over Florida is worth defending on its own terms. (Again, that margin covered the point spread.) LSU’s defense is vastly improved and has held all 3 opponents to date to a single touchdown. Harold Perkins Jr.’s return from a torn ACL in 2024 along with key portal additions in the secondary have had the intended effect so far.

But Kelly protests too much, probably because on some level he recognizes that, for a team with championship ambitions, the offense is a red flag. LSU ranks last or next-to-last in the SEC in total offense, scoring offense, rushing offense, pass efficiency, yards per play and red-zone touchdown percentage. Nussmeier, a would-be Heisman candidate, has attempted more passes than any other SEC quarterback, but ranks at or near the bottom of the conference in touchdowns (3), yards per attempt (6.5), and passer rating (125.3). Confounding, considering last season he easily became the latest Tiger to throw for 3,000 yards and just the 2nd to top 4,000. His lowlight reel on Saturday night was nothing compared to, say, DJ Lagway’s (see below), but it did include an egregious interception that snuffed out a potential scoring drive in the 4th quarter. For a fi5thfth-year senior, it was inexcusable.

Seventeen points in a defensively driven win at Clemson? No complaints. But the opener remains the Tigers’ best outing. In Week 2, they settled for 23 points against a 37.5-point underdog, Louisiana Tech. In Week 3, LSU managed just 10 first downs against Florida, didn’t score after halftime, and had no ground game to speak of until sophomore RB Caden Durham popped a 51-yard gain on what was effectively the last snap of the game. That run alone doubled LSU’s rushing total for the night up to that point.

One thing the offense has going for it: Plenty of options at wideout, even if they’ve yet to make much impact as a group. Another thing: They’ve kept Nussmeier relatively clean. Per PFF, he’s faced the lowest pressure rate to date of any SEC starter despite the departure of both of last year’s starting tackles for the NFL Draft. Eventually — like, say a Week 5 trip to Ole Miss — they’re going to need their supposed strengths to start generating actual results.

Last week: 2

5. Gunner Stockton, Georgia

Lots of movement in the rankings this week as speculation yields to actual results. The biggest riser: Stockton, on the strength of a breakout afternoon in Georgia’s instant-classic, 44-41 win at Tennessee in his first road start. Stockton’s only previous entry against an above-the-fold opponent, a 23-10 loss to Notre Dame in last year’s Playoff quarterfinals, was a dud. With the game on the line in Knoxville, he was a revelation:

Besides the high drama of that moment – a clutch, game-saving dime on 4th-and-6 in defiance of 100,000 braying partisans summoning every ounce of psychic energy they could muster to prevent it – the throw itself was as pure as they come. Up to that point, it wasn’t clear that Stockton had it in him. As usual, much of Georgia’s passing game was an extension of its running game: Altogether, 13 of his 23 completions came on attempts aimed behind the line of scrimmage, including his only other touchdown pass, a quick screen that Zachariah Branch and his perimeter blockers turned into a 36-yard TD. Per PFF, output on screens alone accounted for more than a third of Stockton’s 304 passing yards; no wonder his mediocre PFF grade (66.1) came in much lower than his stellar numbers in terms of passer rating (177.9) and QBR (93.1).

So, arm-wise, Stockton obviously has a lot more in common with Stetson Bennett than with Matt Stafford. Nothing wrong with that. As long as he’s capable of pulling out the dagger when he needs it, Bennett-worthy results are on the table.

Last week: 13

6. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M

If the ending had gone just a little differently – if, say, Notre Dame hadn’t botched a late PAT that prevented a 6-point lead from becoming 7, or a crucial defensive holding penalty against the Irish on 3rd-and-16 hadn’t extended Texas A&M’s final drive, or the Aggies’ last-gasp, do-or-die lob into the end zone had fallen incomplete – Reed’s performance at Notre Dame might just as easily have been noted for its inconsistency: He finished just 17-for-37 overall, and 2-for-9 on attempts of 20+ air yards, with a costly interception in the mix. PFF charged him with 4 “turnover-worthy” plays and a career-low 51.8 overall grade.

For once, though, the big swings did go A&M’s way, and instead of the latest in a long series of what-ifs the Aggies earned their most satisfying road win since Heisman winner Johnny Manziel beat Bama. When Reed did connect, it counted: His 17 completions netted 21.2 yards a pop, including big-play strikes on all 5 of A&M’s touchdown drives. (Only one of which came after halftime: The 13-play, 74-yard march to win.) His upgraded wide receivers had a lot to do with that, especially Mississippi State transfer Mario Craver, who generated 137 yards’ worth of YAC alone. But any lingering doubts about whether Mike Elko made the right choice last winter in sticking with Reed over former 5-star Conner Weigman or a big-ticket transfer are receding fast.
– – –
Last week: 8

7. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee

The final score didn’t go his way, but Vols fans who bought low on Aguilar’s stock prior to Saturday’s 371-yard, 4-touchdown performance against Georgia were vindicated. He was on fire in the early going, connecting on his first 14 passes in a 21-point opening quarter. After Georgia rallied to take the lead, he responded in tit-for-tat fashion with go-ahead touchdown passes on consecutive drives in the 3rd and 4th. And after the Dawgs tied the game late in a moment of high drama (see above), Aguilar cooly oversaw the 14-play, 50-yard drive that put Tennessee in position to win with a walk-off field goal. If the ensuing kick had sailed through the uprights, they’d be stamping his face on license plates. 

It wasn’t all good: The lowlight reel included 2 interceptions amid a sustained drought in the middle quarters. But as for the big question – can an obscure, 24-year-old journeyman from the G5 ranks whom no one in the state of Tennessee had ever heard of 6 months ago be a viable starter for a team thinking Playoff? – the initial answer is yes. Aguilar looked the part. He was comfortable on the big stage, across from the most talented roster in the college game. The Vols were comfortable putting one of the defining games of their season in his hands. He was at his best throwing downfield (5-for-6 on attempts of 20+ air yards, per PFF) and under pressure (all 4 touchdown passes came at the expense of a UGA blitz). He came in as a wild cards, and left as a future pro.

Just as important as far as the locals were concerned, Aguilar’s emergence allowed the Vols to ring the victory bell in the offseason breakup that resulted in their ex, Nico Iamaleava, forcing Aguilar out as QB1 at UCLA. Even before Saturday, much of the enthusiasm for Aguilar’s fast start in Knoxville was plainly a jilted response to Iamaleava’s departure by a fan base that – despite their financial and emotional investment in him over the previous 2 years, and despite his 11-3 record as a starter – is eager to prove they’re better off without him. 

They might actutally be, and as a bonus they’ve enjoyed more than their fair share of schadenfreude over Iamaleava’s miserable start as a Bruin. Three weeks in, UCLA has yet to win a game or come particularly close, getting outscored by a combined 108-43 over the course of an 0-3 start. Iamaleava still hasn’t taken a snap with a lead. A nationally televised, 35-10 debacle against New Mexico in a mostly empty Rose Bowl last Friday night was the end of the road for head coach DeShaun Foster, who officially walked the plank Monday with a 5-10 record and a $7 million buyout to show for it. The program is at a dead stop with no identity, dwindling support, and not much to offer the next coach except a vague pitch about living/recruiting in L.A. 

It’s not out of the question that the Bruins will finish the season winless, especially if players (including possibly Iamaleava) take Foster’s exit as a cue to shut it down ahead of the 4-game deadline for preserving a redshirt. The 30-day window for portaling out following a coaching change is wide open. Even if Iamaleava plays out the string, the odds that Nico remains in the fold in 2026 are somewhere between slim and none. Wherever he winds up next, it certainly won’t be with his people dictating the terms of a big payday. 

Could Aguilar have singlehandedly saved the day if he’d remained a Bruin? Hardly. He’d be going down with the ship out there, coming and going while barely leaving a trace. But is there anyone in Tennessee who spent 2024 waiting for the light to come on for Iamaleava – and waiting, and waiting, all the way through the excruciating Playoff exit at Ohio State – who still regrets how things turned out? After Saturday, not a chance. Aguilar has a long way to go to get the Vols back to the CFP, especially if there are more games ahead where 38 points in regulation isn’t enough. He also just supplied more juice against the best team on the schedule than Iamaleava did all of last season. If they’d watched exactly the same performance by Nico, they’d be saying it was the one they’d been waiting for all along.

Last week: 12

8. Beau Pribula, Missouri

Pribula continues to look right at home at Mizzou, but Saturday’s 52-10 win over Louisiana was the kind of massacre where the quarterback was merely an accessory to the crime. Offensively, the Tigers racked up 427 rushing on 62 carries, their largest single-game total on the ground since 2017. Defensively, they held the short-handed Ragin’ Cajuns to 4 first downs, 2 completed passes and 121 total yards – 84 of which came on this play.

Last week: 9

9. Ty Simpson, Alabama

I’m not prepared to declare amnesty for Bama’s opening-day disaster at Florida State just yet. But Saturday’s thorough, 38-14 beatdown of Wisconsin was a giant step toward restoring confidence across the board, and in Simpson, in particular. Coming off a perfect 17-for-17 outing in Week 2 against UL-Monroe, Simpson was merely close to perfect against the Badgers, finishing 24-for-29 for 382 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 turnovers. And 2 of those 5 incompletions were drops.

Not for nothing, the biggest difference between the past 2 weeks and the opener arguably has less to do with Simpson than with his protection. Against FSU, he was under constant duress, especially after falling behind by 2 scores. Against Wisconsin, he and his next-level wideouts seemed to have all the time in the world to run what often amounted to 7-on-7 drills against an outgunned secondary. Per PFF, Simpson was 9-for-11 for 208 yards on attempts of 10+ air yards, and all 4 of his touchdown passes came from a clean pocket.

Of course, the question where the Tide are concerned has never been about their ceiling when things are clicking. It’s about their consistency — especially on the road, where they’ve lost 5 of their past 6 since last October outside of Tuscaloosa. Their next big test on that front comes in 2 weeks in the SEC opener at Georgia. But they’re in a significantly better place heading into Athens now than they were 2 weeks ago.

Last week: 11

10. Jackson Arnold, Auburn

Arnold is off to a fine start in Hugh Freeze’s offense and yadda yadda yadda bring on the Sooners. Auburn’s trip to Oklahoma is 1 of only a small handful of FBS games this season pitting a transfer quarterback against his former team, and the most high-profile, by far. Given the bitter disappointment of Arnold’s OU tenure, a win in Norman would be about as satisfying as it gets.

Last week: 10⬌

11. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

South Carolina scored a touchdown on its opening series against Vanderbilt, then didn’t score again after Sellers was knocked out of the game with an apparent concussion.

In Sellers’ absence, the Gamecocks turned to 6th-year utility man Luke Doty, a former quarterback-turned-receiver who saw his first extended action behind center since 2021. Doty looked like a guy shaking off nearly 4 years’ worth of rust, committing 2 turnovers (1 interception, 1 fumble) and generally failing to move the needle in a lopsided loss. That snapped a 16-game winning streak against Vandy dating to 2008, knocking Carolina out of the AP Top 25 in the process. 

Shane Beamer told reporters on Sunday that he’s “optimistic” Sellers will be available for this weekend’s trip to 3-0 Missouri, an absolute must-win for the Gamecocks to salvage any sliver of a chance of pulling off another dark-horse Playoff run. Vanderbilt at home was supposed to be the most winnable game on the conference schedule. An 0-1 start in conference play FPI now puts South Carolina chances of crashing the CFP against a stacked remaining schedule at just 1.2%. If Sellers isn’t back looking like himself at Mizzou, that number effectively drops to zero just 2 games into the conference slate.

Last week: 3

12. Blake Shapen, Mississippi State

Mississippi State’s 63-0 win over Alcorn State was brisk work: The Bulldogs scored 9 touchdowns on just 53 offensive snaps, including 4 TD “drives” of 3 plays or less. Given that much of the damage came on the ground, that didn’t leave many opportunities for Shaken to pad his stats, or for his backups to get in much work in garbage time at all. Next up: One more nonconference layup against Northern Illinois before the SEC slate arrives in full force.

Last week: 14

13. Austin Simmons, Ole Miss

Is Simmons looking over his shoulder? Lane Kiffin says no, but given the chance backup Trinidad Chambliss isn’t going to make it that easy. Chambliss, a dual-threat transfer from the D-II ranks, looked like an emerging folk hero in the Rebels’ shootout win over rival Arkansas, accounting for 415 total yards and 3 touchdowns (1 passing, 2 rushing) while Simmons nursed a sore ankle. Simmons’ only appearance against the Hogs came late in the 2nd quarter, when he replaced Chambliss for a handful of plays in the red zone; he promptly re-aggravated the ankle injury, but still managed to throw a short touchdown pass to a wide-open receiver before returning to the bench for the rest of the night.

Impressive as it was, 1 big game by Chambliss against a sketchy Arkansas defense only counts for so much. As of Monday, Simmons was “doing good,” per Kiffin, and on track to return to the starting lineup this weekend against Tulane. He and his coaches would love to put any lingering doubts about his status to bed. Regardless of whether they’re willing to admit it, though, the margin for error just got a little slimmer.

Last week: 15

14. Arch Manning, Texas

Well, let’s start with the good news: Texas won comfortably against UTEP, 27-10, with Manning accounting for all 3 of the Longhorns’ touchdowns (1 passing, 2 rushing). The bad news: Pretty much every other aspect of his performance against a 6-touchdown underdog that should have been ripe for the picking.

Short of a full-blown, multi-interception meltdown, it was about as unsettling as it could be. On paper, Manning finished 11-for-25, averaged a meager 4.6 yards per attempt, and turned in the worst numbers of any SEC starter in Week 3 in terms of both efficiency (87.5) and QBR (26.5). He was 1-for-7 under pressure, per Pro Football Focus, and a dismal 2/9 on attempts of 10+ air yards, with the majority of his 114 passing yards coming on passes completed behind the line of scrimmage.

The real-time experience was worse — a parade of inaccuracy and bizarre decision-making that made his season-opening flop at Ohio State look crisp by comparison. He missed long, wide and late. His mechanics were a mess, devolving into a sketchy sidearm release that led to inaccuracy and tipped balls. Some viewers continued to wonder if he’s secretly nursing some kind of injury. (If he is, it remains an extremely well-kept secret.) He ignored or just didn’t recognize open receivers, and at one point attempted to improvise a wild, Manziel-esque scramble-drill that ended with a slow-motion disaster of a throw that seemed to hang in the air long enough for a UTEP defender to plot its exact coordinates.

By the end of the first half, the home crowd had seen enough to briefly boo him off the field following 1 of the Longhorns’ 11 failed 3rd-down conversions. The second half was better only in that it was too vanilla for anything to go haywire.

The thing is, as with DJ Lagway at Florida, the locals’ frustration stems from the fact that they’ve seen glimpses of what Manning is capable of, and it ain’t this. In his cameos last September in place of an injured Quinn Ewers, Arch looked confident, accurate and generally like a massively touted prospect with the world at his feet is supposed to look. It’s not like we don’t know the guy can throw the heck out of a football. But aside from a too-little, too-late rally in the 4th quarter at Ohio State, as the undisputed QB1 he has looked tentative and tight under pressure to live up to the hype.

Unlike Lagway, Arch is in a stable situation on a top-10 team with Playoff experience and everything to play for. Texas has 1 more nonconference tune-up against Sam Houston before the SEC opener at Florida. In this case, patience really is a virtue. But so is recalibrating expectations that were clearly too much, too soon.

Last week: 6

15. DJ Lagway, Florida

There are forgettable nights. Then there are nights you only wish you could forget, that threaten to follow you around like a ghost until they’re all anyone can remember. For Lagway, Florida’s 20-10 loss at LSU was the latter. A perfunctory final score obscured a historic meltdown. Making his 10th career start in a must-win game that Florida’s defense gave him every opportunity to win, he melted down: 5 interceptions, each one arguably worse than the last.

The first pick, coming with Florida leading 3-0 midway through the opening quarter, was an ill-advised sideline shot left well short of its target — a bad throw, but ultimately not costly thanks to the defense. That would be the only mulligan. The 2nd pick, coming in a tie game just before halftime, was a laser directly into the hands of a waiting centerfield safety who’d sized it up from a mile away; LSU capitalized with a go-ahead field goal on the last play of the half. Pick No. 3, coming in a 13-10 game midway through the 3rd quarter, was the dagger: A badly telegraphed slant that might as well have arrived with postage paid and a GPS map to the end zone. The ensuing pick-6 extended the Tigers’ lead (and eventual winning margin) to double digits. Pick No. 4, coming midway through the 4th, was a hopeless lob into triple coverage that effectively ended any chance of a comeback. As for No. 5, well, see above. By that point, he was merely letting go of the wheel on a performance that was already nose-down in a ditch.

Excluding the slapstick heave in garbage time, Lagway’s first 4 INTs all had one thing in common: They all came on 3rd-and-long, obvious passing downs. But the scoreboard never dictated forcing throws until the very end, and only then because of the throws he’d forced when the game was there for the taking. Nor can he chalk up the miscues to pressure, at least from LSU’s defense — although the Tigers got in their fair share of harassment over the course of the game, all but the last of Lagway’s interceptions launched from a clean pocket. If he was feeling the heat, it was coming from inside the house.

Now, the usual move at this stage of the proceedings would be to appeal for patience. It’s 1 bad game, right? Lagway is young, obviously gifted, and still has plenty of time to grow into the enormous potential he flashed as a freshman, right? His beleaguered head coach, however, definitely does not have time to be patient. The trip to LSU was the first of a month-long, 4-game gauntlet against opponents ranked in the top 10 in the updated polls, with Miami (in Coral Gables), Texas and Texas A&M (in College Station) on deck. Forget about the November stretch against Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Florida State: Barring a dramatic turn of events in the meantime, the odds of Billy Napier making it to November are plummeting by the week. Especially with 2 open dates between this weekend’s trip to Miami — which just demolished the same USF outfit that stunned the Gators in Week 2, for the record — and the Cocktail Party on Nov. 1. A week off is an invitation for heads to roll.

So while Lagway can still salvage a future that lives up to the hype, with each loss it gets a little likelier that it will be a different coach reaping the benefits. And if it comes to that, it might be time to consider whether that future will be unfolding somewhere else. The locals are beyond ready to move on from the Napier administration, whatever the cost. If that cost includes moving on from the quarterback who was supposed to save it, as well, suddenly it’s beginning to look like one they’ll be willing and able to afford.

Last week: 7

16. Cutter Boley, Kentucky

Officially, Kentucky benched Zach Calzada in Week 3 due to injury. But the Wildcats were also in desperate need of some downfield pop, and Boley supplied it: Half of his dozen completions in a 48-23 win over Eastern Michigan gained 20+ yards, a column Calzada barely managed to tick in Weeks 1 and 2. Audition passed, it’ll be Boley’s job to lose on the other side of an open date, beginning with a Week 5 trip to South Carolina.

Last week: 16⬌

The post SEC QB Rankings, Week 4: Joey Aguilar is the guy Tennessee was waiting for Nico Iamaleava to become appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Autumn Alarms

Is it too soon to draw any definitive conclusions about how the rest of the season is going to unfold after the second Saturday of September? Of course. Is it too soon to be stricken with angst over your team’s outlook? Never.

Here’s your regularly scheduled Monday Down South September Panic Index:

DEFCON 1: Florida

There’s nothing new to write about the doomed trajectory of Billy Napier‘s tenure in Gainesville that hasn’t been written, retracted and written again (with exclamation points this time!) over the past 12 months. There was nothing remotely surprising about the final score of Saturday night’s 20-10 loss at LSU, a game Florida entered as a 7.5-point underdog. The Gators held their own in the box score, where the defense allowed a single touchdown for the second week in a row. And yet. Somehow, they still found a way to hit what felt like a new low.

When Napier’s future teetered on the brink in 2024, the silver lining was the presence and promise of DJ Lagway. If nothing else, at least here was something to look forward to. When Napier was granted a public reprieve last November, it was with the implicit understanding that Lagway, 5-star freshman with a golden arm, represented a light at the end of the tunnel. When the Gators surged into the offseason on a 4-game winning streak, it was hailed as proof of concept — the Lagway Era had achieved liftoff, right on schedule. (Even if the defense and ground game had as much to do with the abrupt u-turn as the precocious quarterback. He’s not the Face of the Program for nothing.) When they opened this season with their highest preseason ranking since the pandemic, it was with visions of a more-or-less fully-formed Lagway in voters’ minds. And when they choked away what should have been a routine win over South Florida in Week 2, it was still possible to imagine that Lagway, the least of the team’s problems against USF, gave them a glimmer of hope entering a brutal stretch of games over the coming month.

Then came Saturday night in Baton Rouge, where glimmers go to die.

There are forgettable nights. Then there are nights you only wish you could forget, that threaten to follow you around like a ghost until they’re all anyone can remember. For Lagway, this was the latter. Making his 10th career start in a must-win game that Florida’s defense gave him every opportunity to win, he melted down: 5 interceptions, each one arguably worse than the last.

The first pick, coming with Florida leading 3-0 midway through the first quarter, was an ill-advised sideline shot left well short of its target — a bad throw, but ultimately not costly thanks to the defense. That would be the only mulligan. The second pick, coming in a tie game just before halftime, was a laser directly into the hands of a waiting centerfield safety who’d sized it up from a mile away; LSU capitalized with a go-ahead field goal on the last play of the half. Pick No. 3, coming in a 13-10 game midway through the 3rd quarter, was the dagger: A badly telegraphed slant that may as well have arrived with postage paid and a GPS map to the end zone. The ensuing pick-6 extended the Tigers’ lead (and eventual winning margin) to double digits. Pick No. 4, coming midway through the 4th, was a hopeless lob into triple coverage that effectively ended any chance of a comeback. As for No. 5, well, see above. By that point, he was merely letting go of the wheel on a performance that was already nose-down in a ditch.

Excluding the slapstick heave in garbage time, Lagway’s first 4 INTs all had one thing in common: They all came on 3rd-and-long, obvious passing downs. But the scoreboard never dictated forcing throws until the very end, and only then because of the throws he’d forced when the game was there for the taking. Nor can he chalk up the miscues to pressure, at least from LSU’s defense — although the Tigers got in their fair share of harassment over the course of the game, all but the last of Lagway’s interceptions launched from a clean pocket. If he was feeling the heat, it was coming from inside the house.

Now, the usual move at this stage of the proceedings would be to appeal for patience. It’s 1 bad game, right? Lagway is young, obviously gifted, and still has plenty of time to grow into the enormous potential he flashed as a freshman, right? The theme here is panic, but sure, let’s go ahead and grant that he does have time to grow. His beleaguered head coach, however, definitely does not. The trip to LSU was the first of a month-long, 4-game gauntlet against opponents ranked in the top 10 in the updated polls, with Miami (in Coral Gables), Texas and Texas A&M (in College Station) on deck. Forget about the November stretch against Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Florida State: Barring a dramatic turn of events in the meantime, the odds of Napier making it to November are plummeting by the week. Especially with 2 open dates between this weekend’s trip to Miami — which just demolished the same USF outfit that stunned the Gators in Week 2, for the record — and the Cocktail Party on Nov. 1. A week off is an invitation for heads to roll.

So while Lagway can still salvage a future that lives up to the hype, with each loss it gets a little likelier that it will be a different coach reaping the benefits. And if it comes to that, it might be time to consider whether that future will be unfolding somewhere else. The locals are beyond ready to move on from the Napier administration, whatever the cost. If that cost includes moving on from the quarterback who was supposed to save it, as well, suddenly it’s beginning to look like one they’ll be willing and able to afford.

On alert: Arch Manning

The good news: Texas won comfortably against UTEP, 27-10, with Manning accounting for all 3 of the Longhorns’ touchdowns (1 passing, 2 rushing). The bad news: Pretty much every other aspect of his performance against a 6-touchdown underdog that should have been ripe for the picking.

Short of a full-blown 5-interception meltdown, it was about as unsettling as it could be. On paper, Manning finished 11-for-25, averaged a meager 4.6 yards per attempt, and turned in the worst numbers of any SEC starter in Week 3 in terms of both efficiency (87.5) and Total QBR (26.5). He was 1-for-7 under pressure, per Pro Football Focus, and a dismal 2-for-9 on attempts of 10+ air yards, with the majority of his 114 passing yards coming on passes completed behind the line of scrimmage.

The real-time experience was worse — a parade of inaccuracy and bizarre decision-making that made his season-opening flop at Ohio State look crisp by comparison. He missed long, wide and late. His mechanics were a mess, devolving into a sketchy sidearm release that led to inaccuracy and tipped balls. Some viewers continued to wonder if he’s secretly nursing some kind of injury. (If he is, it remains an extremely well-kept secret.) He ignored or just didn’t recognize open receivers, and at one point attempted to improvise a wild, Manziel-esque scramble-drill that ended with a slow-motion disaster of a throw that seemed to hang in the air long enough for a UTEP defender to plot its exact coordinates.

By the end of the first half, the home crowd had seen enough to briefly boo him off the field following 1 of the Longhorns’ 11 failed 3rd-down conversions. The second half was better only in that it was too vanilla for anything to go haywire.

The thing is, as with Lagway, the locals’ frustration stems from the fact that they’ve seen what Manning is capable of, and it ain’t this. In his cameos last September in place of an injured Quinn Ewers, Arch looked confident, accurate and generally like a massively touted prospect with the world at his feet is supposed to look. It’s not like we don’t know the guy can throw the heck out of a football. But aside from a too-little, too-late rally in the 4thquarter at Ohio State, as the undisputed QB1 he has looked tentative and tight under pressure to live up to the hype.

Unlike Lagway, Arch is in a stable situation on a top-10 team with Playoff experience and everything to play for. Texas has one more nonconference tune-up against Sam Houston before the SEC opener at Florida. In the case, patience really is a virtue. But so is recalibrating expectations that were clearly too much, too soon.

Elevated: LSU’s Offense

Brian Kelly made a point of dressing down a reporter on Saturday night for leading off the postgame press conference with a question about the Tigers’ struggles on offense. Which, fine: A 10-point win over rival Florida is worth defending on its own terms. (Again, that margin covered the point spread.) LSU’s defense is vastly improved and has held all 3 opponents to date to a single touchdown. Harold Perkins Jr.’s return from a torn ACL in 2024 along with key portal additions in the secondary have had the intended effect so far.

But Kelly protests too much, probably because on some level he recognizes that, for a team with championship ambitions, the offense is a red flag. LSU ranks last or next-to-last in the SEC in total offense, scoring offense, rushing offense, pass efficiency, yards per play, and red-zone touchdown percentage. Would-be Heisman candidate Garrett Nussmeier has attempted more passes than any other SEC quarterback, but ranks at or near the bottom of the conference in touchdowns (3), yards per attempt (6.5) and passer rating (125.3). Nussmeier’s lowlight reel on Saturday night was nothing compared to DJ Lagway’s, obviously, but it did include an egregious interception that snuffed out a potential scoring drive in the 4th quarter. For a 5th-year senior, it was inexcusable.

Now, 17 points in a defensively driven win at Clemson? No complaints. But the opener remains LSU’s best outing. In Week 2, they settled for 23 points against a 37.5-point underdog, Louisiana Tech. In Week 3, managed just 10 first downs against Florida, didn’t score after halftime, and had no ground game to speak of until sophomore RB Caden Durham popped a 51-yard gain on what was effectively the last snap of the game. That run alone doubled LSU’s rushing total for the night up to that point.

One thing the offense has going for it: Plenty of options at wideout, even if they’ve yet to make much impact as a group. Another thing: They’ve kept Nussmeier relatively clean. Per PFF, he’s faced the lowest pressure rate to date of any SEC starter despite the departure of both of last year’s starting tackles for the NFL Draft. Eventually — like, say a Week 5 trip to Ole Miss — they’re going to need their supposed strengths to start generating actual results.

Monitoring: Georgia’s Secondary

Georgia is getting accustomed to nail-biters: The Dogs’ wild, 44-41 win at Tennessee was their 3rd overtime win in their past 4 games vs. power-conference opponents, following on the heels of last year’s razor-thin wins over Georgia Tech and Texas to close the regular season. Watching their blue-chip secondary get repeatedly torched in the process, on the other hand, was new.

Granted, Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar did much of his damage for the afternoon in a fast and furious first quarter in which he finished 14-for-14 for 213 and 2 touchdowns and ran for a 3rd. Early on, the Vols went after sophomore Georgia DB Ellis Robinson IV, victimizing him on a 72-yard bomb (on which a flailing Robinson appeared to intentionally commit pass interference, to no avail) and drawing a 2nd DPI flag at his expense later in the quarter to set up another score.

Robinson was yanked from the lineup posthaste, after which Aguilar cooled down considerably and Georgia’s offense methodically closed the gap. Eventually, though, the big plays and breakdowns resumed. The Vols closed the 3rd quarter by retaking the lead on another bomb from Aguilar to Chris Brazzell II, this one well played by cornerback Daniel Harris right up to the moment it came time to make a play on the ball.

I sympathized on that one with Harris, who did all he could realistically be asked to do all the way up to deflecting the ball at the highest point, yet still found himself on the wrong end of a massive, momentum-swinging play by Brazzell. The Vols’ next big play, on the other hand, was an easy one, covering 32 yards from Aguilar to a wide-open Braylon Staley.

Altogether, Aguilar was 5-for-6 on attempts of 20+ air yards for 195 yards — accounting for the lion’s share of his 371 passing yards on the day — and 4 touchdowns, joining CJ Stroud (2022), Mac Jones (2020), Joe Burrow (2019) and Drew Lock (2017) as the only opposing QBs to drop 4 TD passes on the Dawgs in Kirby Smart’s tenure. Either Aguilar is a sneaky first-round prospect, or Georgia has some significant work to do on the back end.

Stabilizing: Alabama

I’m not prepared to declare amnesty for Bama’s opening-day disaster at Florida State just yet, but Saturday’s thorough, 38-14 beatdown of Wisconsin was a giant step toward restoring confidence in an outfit that has done its best under Kalen DeBoer to squander it. Everything that went wrong in the opener went very, very right against the Badgers, right from the start. QB Ty Simpson was well-protected an on-point, finishing a near-perfect 24-for-29 for 13.2 yards per attempt and 4 touchdowns. (That coming one week after he actually was perfect, hitting all 17 of his passes against UL-Monroe before calling it a night at halftime.) The defense looked like an Alabama defense, forcing 2 turnovers (both interceptions by emerging junior DB Bray Hubbard) and holding Wisconsin to 209 total yards, much of that total coming in garbage time. Ryan Williams, one of the goats of the loss to FSU, was back to doing Ryan Williams Things.

Of course, the question where the Tide are concerned has never been about their ceiling when things are clicking. It’s about their consistency — especially on the road, where they’ve lost 5 of their past 6 since last October outside of Tuscaloosa. Their next big test on that front comes in 2 weeks in the SEC opener at rival Georgia. But they’re in a significantly better place heading into Athens now than they were 2 weeks ago.

Pending: LaNorris Sellers

South Carolina scored a touchdown on its opening series against Vanderbilt, and didn’t score again after Sellers was knocked out of the game with an apparent concussion.

In Sellers’ absence, the Gamecocks turned to 6th-year utility man Luke Doty, a former quarterback-turned-receiver who saw his first extended action behind center since 2021. Doty looked like a guy shaking off nearly 4 years’ worth of rust, committing 2 turnovers (1 interception, 1 fumble) and generally failing to move the needle in a deflating, 31-7 loss. That snapped a 16-game winning streak against Vandy dating to 2008, knocking Carolina out of the AP Top 25 in the process. 

Shane Beamer told reporters on Sunday that he’s “optimistic” Sellers will be available for this weekend’s trip to 3-0 Missouri, an absolute must-win for the Gamecocks to salvage any sliver of a chance of pulling off another dark-horse Playoff run. Vanderbilt at home was supposed to be the most winnable game on the conference schedule. An 0-1 start in conference play ESPN’s Football Power Index now puts South Carolina chances of crashing the CFP against a stacked remaining schedule at just 1.2 percent. If Sellers isn’t back looking like himself at rival Mizzou, that number effectively drops to zero just 2 games into the conference slate. The Gamecocks’ national championship odds already are falling.

Dude of the Week: Mario Craver

Texas A&M invested heavily over the offseason to upgrade the talent level at wide receiver, adding Craver (Mississippi State) and KC Concepcion (NC State) to a rotation that lost its top 4 wideouts from 2024. Both have been hits in the early going, with Concepcion supplying some extra juice in the return game, for good measure. But it was Craver – all 5-9, 165 pounds of him – who leapt off the screen and into the national consciousness in the Aggies’ 41-40 triumph at Notre Dame: 7 receptions, 207 yards, 1 TD and a fresh set of blisters for one of the most respected secondaries in America.

Through 3 games, Craver is the FBS leader with 443 receiving yards and 9 catches of 20+ yards – 2 more than any A&M receiver managed last year over the entire season. Craver (4) and Concepcion (3) have combined for 7 TD catches already.

Goat(s) of the Week: Max Gilbert and Tommy Buchner

What’s worse than missing the game-winning field goal in regulation, only to watch your team lose in overtime?

How about botching the hold on a routine PAT that would have extended the lead to 7 points late in the game, only to watch your team ultimately lose by 1?

Sorry guys. At least you don’t have to endure the infamy alone.

Notebook

1.) Virginia Tech fired head coach Brent Pry on Sunday on the heels of an 0-3 start. The first name on the wishlist to replace him, according to the media hive mind: Shane Beamer. For now, it’s probably safe to say the thought process there begins and ends with the fact that his last name is “Beamer.” (If you’re under 30, Shane’s dad is the guy from the meme. Also he’s the guy who put Virginia Tech football on the map, before it fell off again in the decade since his retirement.) Beamer appears content at South Carolina and has repeatedly said he’s in it there for the long haul; the feeling in Carolina generally seems mutual. But then, based on Saturday night’s flop against Vandy, there’s a chance that goodwill is about to be put to the test. Just something to keep in mind as the season unfolds.

2.) Tennessee was concerned about the absence of both of its starting cornerbacks against Georgia, and it was right to be. One of the fill-ins, Colorado transfer Colton Hood, held up fine, allowing just 1 reception for 5 yards, per PFF. (Hood was also flagged once for holding, negating an apparent interception in the first half.) The other, true freshman Ty Redmond, was a target: UGA completed 6 of attempts in Redmond’s direction for 113 yards, including a 45-yard gain on the Bulldogs’ first play of the game and the clutch, game-tying touchdown from Gunner Stockton to London Humphreys at the end of regulation. 

Not that the corner deserves too much blame on a throw that good – it was perfect because it had to be, and the catch might have been even better. The kid’s gonna be OK. But he didn’t do anything to make the Vols any less eager to get Jermod McCoy on the field ASAP.

3.) He wasn’t missed, but the targeting penalty that got LSU linebacker Whit Weeks ejected barely 2 minutes into the game against Florida was the weakest of sauces.

Yeah, I know, what else is new? A whole generation of players and fans have come of age now with this rule. Still, give me a break, man. If you gotta throw a flag for helmet-to-helmet contact, even the obviously incidental variety, whatever. I get it. The NCAA is terrified of being exposed to legal liability for the long-term effects of head injuries and needs to be able to point to the targeting penalty as an effective deterrent in a hypothetical lawsuit. Fine. If the lawyers say that’s what it takes to make “player safety” hold up in court, that’s what they get paid for.

But at long last, can we please stop kicking guys out of the dang game for what is by all rights basic football stuff?

The obvious solution — splitting targeting calls into Targeting I (15-yard penalty) for routine collisions and Targeting II (penalty + ejection) for more egregious ones involving launching, etc. — has been on the table for a decade. It’s a decade overdue.

4.) Veteran Notre Dame reporter Pete Sampson of The Athletic looked into rumors that Irish QB CJ Carr was tipping off plays against Texas A&M and came away convinced: Per Sampson, when Carr’s feet were parallel to the line of scrimmage, it signaled a run; when his feet were staggered, it tipped off a pass. Considering the Irish put up 429 yards and 40 points anyway, maybe A&M’s defense just wasn’t that quick on the uptake.

5.) How seriously are we prepared to take Vanderbilt? The Commodores’ 31–7 win at South Carolina was a milestone win for Vandy several times over: First win by 20+ points over an SEC opponent since 2018; first win in an SEC opener since 2011; first road win over a ranked opponent since 2007. They debuted at No. 20 in the updated AP poll, their highest ranking at any point since the 2008 team climbed to No. 13 on the strength of a 5-0 start. That team went on to finish unranked after losing 6 of its last 8. This team? TBD. But after outscoring Virginia Tech and South Carolina by a combined 65-7 over the last 6 quarters — both on the road — they’re only getting harder to dismiss. Routine wins over Georgia State and Utah State the next 2 weeks will make the ‘Dores 5-0 heading into a grudge match at Alabama.

6.) If you missed Ole Miss’ 41-35 win over Arkansas on Saturday night, you missed … well, a typical Ole Miss-Arkansas rivalry game: The Hogs and Rebels combined for 1,001 yards of total offense, 54 first downs, 17 3rd-down conversions and a grand total of 3 punts. The winning quarterback, D-II transfer Trinidad Chambliss, accounted for 405 total yards and 3 touchdowns in place of an injured Austin Simmons.

Moment of Zen of the Week

The post Monday Down South: DJ Lagway, Arch Manning, set off sirens in the September Panic Index  appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Game of the Week: Georgia (-5.5) at Tennessee

The stakes: Is “rebuilding” still a thing? The transfer portal might have rendered the concept largely obsolete, at least of the level of outfits that aspire to be year-in, year-out Playoff contenders. But Georgia and Tennessee are embarking on the SEC schedule as teams with more questions than answers coming off early CFP exits in 2024. Who are these guys?

Georgia has not had to ask that question at this point on the calendar in quite a while. The ’24 campaign was … well, even at Georgia, you can’t fairly describe a season that culminates in an SEC championship as a letdown. Instead, let’s go with … anticlimax. While the Bulldogs ultimately survived the conference slog, it was just that — a slog, with virtually none of the aura or sense of inevitability they’d sustained across the previous 3 seasons. Every conference game was a competitive, 4-quarter affair, as was an 8-overtime cliff-hanger against Georgia Tech. An 18-point thumping as Ole Miss was UGA’s most lopsided loss since the pandemic. The Dawgs lost their first CFP game by double digits, their starting quarterback to the portal and 13 starters to the NFL Draft.

That’s a lot of question marks for a team that still (narrowly) has the best odds to win the SEC championship. Georgia’s first 2 games, over Marshall and Austin Peay, were routine smackdowns that revealed nothing about what to expect against a real opponent in a hostile environment, especially from quarterback Gunner Stockton in his first career road start. Everyone is going to learn a lot more about this version of the Dawgs on Saturday, including the Dawgs themselves.

For Tennessee, beating Georgia remains one of the last obstacles they’ve yet to clear since emerging from the wilderness under Josh Heupel. The Vols have lost 8 straight in the series, all by at least 2 touchdowns. In last year’s game in Athens, they jumped out to a 10-0 lead only to be outscored 31-7 over the final 3 quarters. The blue-chip quarterback who was supposed to take the program to the next level portaled out in the spring in melodramatic fashion, following last year’s leading rusher, receiver, 4 starting o-linemen and a first-round NFL Draft pick edge rusher. The new quarterback, Joey Aguilar, is a 24-year-old journeyman in the biggest game of his life (so far).

Tennessee fans are ready to seize any opportunity to anoint Aguilar a folk hero, declare victory in the “trade” that brought him to Knoxville in the first place, and prove to the entire country (and themselves) that they never needed Nico Iamaleava to live their best life. Is he capable of giving it to them? Let’s find out.

The stat: 14

That’s the number of interceptions Joey Aguilar threw last year at Appalachian State, most in the nation.

The number itself was alarming, but what really stood out was the circumstances behind it: All 14 picks came with App. State trailing. In fact, Aguilar attempted more passes with his team trailing (307) than any other FBS quarterback, accounting for a staggering 78.7% of his total attempts. Even in victory, the Mountaineers trailed by double digits in 3 of their 4 wins; in the other, a back-and-forth game against Georgia State, they rallied for the winning touchdown in the final 2 minutes. Comeback mode was a way of life.

At Tennessee, not so much — at least, not yet. The Volunteers have yet to trail this season, cruising to big first-quarter leads in lopsided wins over Syracuse and East Tennessee State. Not coincidentally, Aguilar has yet to throw an interception, or take a sack, or to feel so much as a hostile hand on him. (Pro Football Focus has charged Tennessee’s o-line with allowing just 1 QB hit on 60 drop-backs.) Aguilar will almost certainly have to overcome some adverse situations to give the Vols a chance on Saturday, but the longer they can keep him in his comfort zone, the better. Comeback mode against Georgia State and comeback mode against Georgia are two very different things.

The big question: How will Tennessee’s corners hold up?

Before the season, I projected cornerback as the Volunteers’ biggest strength. Instead, it might be their biggest red flag. Tennessee’s best player, Jermod McCoy, remains on the shelf as he works his way back from an offseason ACL tear. The other returning starter at corner, Rickey Gibson III, is out indefinitely with an arm injury he suffered in the season opener. In their place, Colorado transfer Colton Hood and true freshman Ty Redmond are in the spotlight opposite a deep but not especially distinguished bunch of Georgia wideouts.

What little the Vols have seen from Hood and Redmond has been encouraging enough. Hood was the SEC co-Defensive Player of the Week in Week 1 after breaking up 3 passes and returning a fumble for a touchdown in the win over Syracuse. Redmond, who ranked near the bottom of the incoming recruiting class, is Tennessee’s highest-graded defender (per PFF) through 2 games. Whether any of that translates against the likes of UGA’s Zachariah Branch is very much TBD.

The key matchup: Georgia OL Earnest Greene III vs. Tennessee Edge Joshua Josephs

One of the themes of Georgia’s 31-17 win over Tennessee last November was the disparity in the respective pass rushes. The Bulldogs hounded Nico Iamaleava, generating pressure on 40% of his drop-backs and sacking him 5 times. By contrast, the Volunteers never laid a hand on Carson Beck, generating just 5 pressures despite the presence of a couple of future pros on the edges in Joseph and James Pearce Jr. (a first-round pick in April). Beck turned in his best game of the year while leading 5 extended scoring drives on UGA’s last 6 possessions.

After being limited to a part-time role over his first 3 years on campus, Joseph is squarely on breakout watch in Year 4, and his capacity for ruining Gunner Stockton’s afternoon will go a long way toward establishing his stock.

Greene, like most Georgia starters, is a prospect too — in fact, at this time last year it was a safer bet than not that he’d be part of the mass exodus for the draft at the end of the ’24 season. It didn’t work out that way: Greene regressed in his second year as a starter, ultimately getting benched following a disastrous outing against Ole Miss. This year, he made the move from left tackle to right, where he started the opener against Marshall before exiting the game with “lower-body stiffness.” At last glance, Greene is listed as probable to play after returning to practice this week. Plenty of eyes will be watching closely how well he fares in his first reps against SEC competition since getting the hook last year in Oxford.

The verdict …

After Saturday, Georgia’s schedule sets up extremely well for another run to Atlanta. The trip to Knoxville is the toughest of only 3 road games — the Bulldogs get Florida and Georgia Tech at neutral sites, leaving only trips to Auburn and Mississippi State. Meanwhile, Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas all visit Athens, where UGA is still riding a 33-games-and-counting winning streak dating to 2018. For all the uncertainty on the depth chart, the roster ranks No. 1 in 247Sports’ Team Talent Composite, where Tennessee ranks a distant 16th. The Vols need Aguilar, a former JUCO product with no FBS offers out of high school, to play the game of his life to overcome that gap. The Bulldogs just need Gunner Stockton to be himself.

Prediction: • Georgia 26, Tennessee 17

Texas A&M at Notre Dame (-6.5)

Texas A&M had a miserable time through the air in last year’s season opener against Notre Dame, a 23-13 decision in College Station that set the tone for the Irish’s run to the CFP final. A&M’s quarterback in that game, Conner Weigman, was a dismal 1-for-6 on attempts of 10+ air yards, completing more downfield passes to Irish defensive backs (2) than to his own receivers. Cue Mike Elko, channeling the spirit of Aggies fans everywhere in his first game as head coach:

That night certainly wasn’t the only reason the once-touted Weigman ended the year on the bench, and subsequently in the portal. But in retrospect, it was the beginning of the end.

It was also one of the reasons that Elko, satisfied with Marcel Reed‘s development as QB1 last November, invested heavily over the offseason in upgrading the surrounding talent at wide receiver. The top 4 wideouts in last year’s rotation all departed — 2 of them with eligibility remaining — making way for transfers Mario Craver (Mississippi State) and KC Concepcion (NC State) in a bid for more juice. So far, so good: Through 2 games against UT-San Antonio and Utah State, Craver and Concepcion have hauled in 22 of 29 combined targets for 381 yards and 6 touchdowns. Craver, a true sophomore with over-the-top speed, already has 5 receptions of 20+ yards, just 2 fewer than A&M’s leader in that category for the entire ’24 season (Noah Thomas, now at Georgia).

Obviously, Notre Dame’s secondary is a dramatic leap in degree of difficulty over UTSA and Utah State. Holdovers Christian Gray and Leonard Moore saw a little bit of everything during last year’s Playoff run and came out of it as the most respected returning cornerback combo in the country. That doesn’t mean they’re not gettable. Miami’s wideouts put Gray and Moore on the grill in the opener, hauling in a combined 12 catches for 114 yards at their expense, per PFF. (Gray was also flagged once for pass interference.) That’s part of the gig at corner: You win some, you lose some. But even on a rough night, they managed to keep the lid on, allowing a long gain of 20 yards and no touchdowns. If Craver, Concepcion, and/or 5-star sophomore Terry Bussey can turn just a couple of wins into points, the investment will already be worth it.

Prediction: Notre Dame 24, • Texas A&M 19

Florida at LSU (-7.5)

It’s September 2024. Florida is coming off an embarrassing home loss to an unranked opponent. The pitchforks are out. The natives are restless. The vultures are circling. Billy Napier‘s tenure is cooked. Pundits are surveying a brutal remaining schedule to determine the exact point of no return. The Internet hive mind is Photoshopping Lane Kiffin in Gators gear in an effort to meme the dream into reality.

It’s September 2025. Florida is coming off an embarrassing home loss to an unranked opponent. The pitchforks are out. The natives are restless. The vultures are circling. The overreactions are pouring in. Billy Napier’s tenure is cooked. Pundits are surveying a brutal remaining schedule to determine the exact point of no return. The Internet hive mind is Photoshopping Lane Kiffin in Gator gear in an effort to meme the dream into reality.

No wonder that the prevailing emotion following last week’s 18-16 loss to USF — a grim parade of untimely penalties, crucial drops, special teams bloopers, dubious clock management and outright stupidity –– was disgust. It’s also no wonder that, looking at the rest of the schedule, the mood quickly turned to resignation. Beginning with the trip to rival LSU, Florida’s next 3 games are all against opponents currently ranked in the top 10 (LSU, Miami, Texas), the first 2 of them on the road. That stretch is followed by a trip to Texas A&M, the annual neutral-site date against Georgia, and a closing run against Ole Miss (in Oxford), Tennessee, and a resurgent Florida State. That’s 8 ranked opponents in the last 10 games that, if kickoff were this weekend, would almost certainly be favored over the Gators. And that’s assuming a couple of perfunctory wins over Mississippi State (in Gainesville) and Kentucky (in Lexington), which as the locals know are hardly automatic.

At this point, it’s hard to tell if pointing that Napier has survived this exact scenario before sounds more like a consolation or a threat. At least after last year’s dismal start, there was a lull in the schedule ahead of the dreaded November gauntlet, not to mention a quarterback controversy to distract from the doomed vibes. This team has the luxury of neither. DJ Lagway is not a freshman anymore. The bright future he promised last year is now the present. A month from now, the Gators could very easily be staring down the barrel of a 1-5 start. If it comes to that, there won’t be much left to argue.

Prediction: LSU 27, • Florida 22

Wisconsin at Alabama (-20.5)

What happened to Wisconsin? Time was, the Badgers knew exactly who they were and you did, too. Used to be, they were gonna get off the bus with a bunch of corn-fed hosses who gained 60 pounds over the offseason like bears preparing to hibernate for winter, an honest-to-god fullback who was wider than he was tall, line up and run the ball till the cows came home. The blueprint never changed, and it was good for somewhere between 8 and 11 wins a year for 30 years.

Under third-year coach Luke Fickell, they’re a thoroughly nondescript group coming off the first losing season at Wisconsin since 2001. Worse, the old smashmouth identity has been replaced by a big bowl of meh. An attempt to bring the offense into the 21st Century was a bust, collapsing last year in a 5-game losing streak to end the season in which the Badgers failed to record a rushing touchdown in the entire month of November. They endured most of the 2024 season without starting QB Tyler Van Dyke, who suffered a torn ACL in a lopsided September loss to Alabama; this year, starting QB Billy Edwards Jr. is nursing a knee injury that will sideline him on Saturday for the second consecutive week. Even the offensive line is the most massive o-line in this game. Bama has problems of its own, but the Tide’s 13-game home winning streak should not be in jeopardy.

Prediction: • Alabama 36, Wisconsin 13

Arkansas at Ole Miss (-7.5)

Last year’s 63-31 final in Fayetteville was Ole Miss’ largest margin of victory over Arkansas in the history of the series – a beatdown so bad Arkansas coach Sam Pittman openly speculated that Ole Miss was reading the Hogs’ mail. What does that mean for this year’s collision in Oxford? Not much. 

For one thing, Arkansas-Ole Miss has been about as evenly matched a rivalry over the years as you’re going to find: Since 2009, they’ve split 8 games apiece by an average score of Razorbacks 32, Rebels 32, with neither side winning more than 2 in a row at any point in that span. For another, both sides of last year’s epic barbecue look entirely different. Of the 22 starters in that game when Ole Miss’ offense was on the field, only 7 return – none of whom are Jaxson Dart or Jordan Watkins, the pass-catch combo that accounted for 5 of the Rebels’ 8 touchdowns. Their replacements, Austin Simmons and Harrison Wallace III, are off to a fine start. But historically, when these teams get together history is no guide.

Prediction: Ole Miss 32, • Arkansas 28

Vanderbilt at South Carolina (-4.5)

Both sides here are due for a reality check, one way or the other. For South Carolina, a top-15 team with Playoff ambitions, this should be the most routine win on the conference schedule. For Vandy, a wild card coming off an emphatic, 44-20 rout at Virginia Tech, it’s a test of just how competitive the Commodores can realistically expect to be in SEC play. As it stands, the ‘Dores still project as likely underdogs in every conference game, give or take a late-November tilt against Kentucky that will mean very little by that point if they’re unable to string together a series of upsets in the meantime. Competitive underdogs, yes, as opposed to doormats, but underdogs nonetheless. If there’s more on the table than eking out bowl eligibility, what better moment to seize on a rare gust of momentum than starting 1-0 in the league standings?

Prediction: • South Carolina 29, Vanderbilt 23

UTEP at Texas (-41.5)

Arch Manning isn’t the only 5-star quarterback in this game: UTEP QB Malachi Nelson was only slightly less hyped, coming in as the No. 5 quarterback and No. 11 overall player in the 2023 class, per 247Sports’ composite rating.  

Initially, Nelson was touted as the heir apparent to Caleb Williams at USC. Instead, he stunned pretty much everyone by bailing after one season at SC with all four years of eligibility intact. (Recall that this was immediately on the heels of the Trojans’ sustained meltdown over the second half of the ’23 regular season, from which they’ve arguably yet to recover.) In 2024, the portal deposited Nelson, randomly, at Boise State. He spent his lone season in Boise chilling anonymously as QB2 during the Broncos’ run to the Playoff. Last winter, he washed ashore at UTEP, where he’s finally managed to get on the field in the Miners’ first 2 games, with unremarkable results.

Nelson’s slide down the food chain before taking his first meaningful college snap is an extreme case, but for a bunch of guys only just approaching legal drinking age the ’23 QB class is already well-traveled as a group. Seventeen quarterbacks were ranked in that year’s composite top 250 players overall; of that number, only 5 made it to Year 3 with the teams they inked with out of high school, and only 2 of those 5 are starters: Manning and Kansas State’s Avery Johnson. Just another reminder (if anybody still needs one) not to count your recruiting stars before they hatch.

Prediction: Texas 45, • UTEP 9

South Alabama at Auburn (-24.5)

Their respective campuses are only about 3 hours apart, but Saturday will mark the first meeting. Excluding the Crimson Tide, Auburn rarely scheduled in-state opponents until relatively recently and has never lost to one. Of course, until relatively recently South Alabama football didn’t exist. Since joining the FBS ranks in 2013, the Jaguars are 1-7 against SEC opponents, the lone win coming in a 21-20 upset at Mississippi State in the 2016 opener. The only other time the Jags have appeared on the SEC radar as anything other than target practice was when Bama poached their head coach to serve as defensive coordinator. Woe unto Hugh Freeze if that does not remain the case.

Prediction: • Auburn 44, South Alabama 17

Louisiana at Missouri (-27.5)

Mizzou fans are head over heels for their new quarterback, Penn State transfer Beau Pribula, who lit up the box score in Week 2 in a wild, 42-31 win over rival Kansas. No such luck for Louisiana: The Ragin’ Cajuns’ big-ticket portal addition, former LSU/Ole Miss QB Walker Howard, is on the shelf with an oblique injury that’s likely to end his season. That’s a tough break for Howard, a former blue-chip who returned to his hometown with high expectations and a ticking clock after toiling behind future NFL starters in Baton Rouge and Oxford. His replacement, redshirt freshman Daniel Beale, is making his first career start vs. an FBS opponent.

Prediction: • Missouri 41, Louisiana 7

Oklahoma (-21.5) at Temple

Temple is 2-0 under first-year coach KC Keeler for the first time since 2019, and QB Evan Simon in particular is off to a hot start: First nationally in efficiency, second in both overall PFF grading and Total QBR. The going gets a leeetle bit tougher this week than the Owls have found it so far against UMass and Howard.

Prediction: • Oklahoma 42, Temple 10

Eastern Michigan at Kentucky (-24.5)

Eastern Michigan’s 28-23 loss to Long Island U. in Week 2 represented LIU’s first ever win over an FBS program, and therefore probably also the worst loss by any FBS team this season. (We’re talking about the same Long Island U. that could barely string together a three-and-out in the opener, a 55-0 blowout at Florida.) It wasn’t even as close as the score: LIU outgained the Eagles by 168 yards with a nearly 16-minute advantage in time of possession. Eastern Michigan as a program has not been nearly as depressing under long-tenured coach Chris Creighton as it was back in the day, but any team that turns in a stinker like that is in the running for worst in America.

Prediction: Kentucky 34, • Eastern Michigan 14

Alcorn State at Mississippi State (n/a)

Alcorn State! Steve McNair! Remember that? Hand Him the Heisman! Alcorn State’s last win over a I-A/FBS opponent was in 1978.

Prediction: Mississippi State 48, Alcorn State 3

Scoreboard

Week 2 record: 12-3 straight-up | 6-6 vs. spread
Season record: 25-6 straight-up | 13-15 vs. spread

The post SEC Primer, Week 3: Is Georgia or Tennessee for real? We’re about to find out appeared first on Saturday Down South.

1. John Mateer, Oklahoma

It’s not quite right to describe Mateer as a revelation, considering his prolific 2024 output at Washington State is the entire reason Oklahoma invested in him and his former Wazzu offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle in the first place. But given how few people actually saw anything he did at Washington State, Saturday’s 24-13 win over Michigan was his introduction to the vast majority of the country, and he aced the test. His dual-threat skillset on full display, Mateer accounted for 77% of the Sooners’ total offense and all 3 OU touchdowns. He served as a workhorse runner; he made plays under pressure; he completed passes to every area of the field. There’s a reason he now has the 2nd-lowest odds to win the Heisman.

He was not perfect — see some scattershot accuracy, including an air-mail interception that might or night not have been his fault. But he was essentially the guy Oklahoma thought it was getting when it bet the farm on Mateer (and the system that developed him) over the offseason: A full-service, high-volume operator who can win in multiple ways. That’s a huge upgrade over last year, and if nothing else gives the Sooners a fighting chance every time out against a nightmare of a schedule that, on the other side of this weekend’s trip to Temple, features 8 currently ranked teams in the last 9 games. There’s a long way to go, but Step 1 could not have gone much better.
– – –
Last week: 3

2. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

LSU’s 27-16 loss at Florida last November was a low point for the Tigers, punctuating a 3-game losing streak that briefly looked like it might tank Brian Kelly‘s administration. For his part part, Nussmeier was arguably at his worst in The Swamp, finishing with season-lows for total offense (207 yards) and yards per attempt (5.5) and a season-high for sacks (7) in the loss. This weekend’s return date in Baton Rouge arrives with the Tigers riding significantly higher, sitting pretty in the polls on the strength of their Week 1 win at Clemson. (Florida, on the other hand … well, see below.) The opener was more of a triumph for LSU’s defense than it was for Nussmeier, who hit his marks while the D turned in its best big-game performance in ages. But at some point, if LSU’s going to pull off the season it hopes, it’s going to need him to return the favor.
– – –
Last week: 1

3. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

Sellers kept it close to the vest in Week 2 in a sluggish, rain-delayed win over South Carolina State, finishing 11-for-19 for 128 yards and a touchdown. Coulda been better, as certain scouts detailed at length. Sorry, the rankings are not grinding tape of a perfunctory outing against South Carolina State! Next up: A actual test in the SEC opener against Vanderbilt.
– – –
Last week: 2

4. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt

We’ll see how it plays out in conference play, but Saturday night’s 44-20 romp at Virginia Tech felt like to me like the moment Vanderbilt graduated from plucky overachiever to just a straight-up solid football team. The ‘Dores thoroughly dominated the second half, rallying from a 20-10 deficit to outscore Tech 34-0 after halftime. It was every bit as lopsided as that score implies: The offense scored touchdowns on all 5 second-half possessions, while the defense held the Hokies without so much as a first down until the dying minutes of garbage time. By then, the home crowd in Blacksburg had largely abandoned the premises in disgust.

Besides emptying out what used to be one of the most hostile stadiums in the country, one of the reasons the performance resonated was the fact that it was not the latest episode of We Turnt With Diego Pavia. Pavia was just his usual, efficient self, finishing 12-for-18 passing with 2 touchdowns, 254 total yards and a stellar 88.7 QBR – an eerily similar stat line to the one he put up in last year’s overtime win over Virginia Tech in Nashville. The difference between a nail-biter at home and a blowout on the road was the rest of the team rising to the Pavia’s level. The ‘Dores outgained Tech by 242 yards overall and nearly 4.5 yards per play, with a majority of their output on offense coming on the ground – easily the most complete Vandy outing since the pandemic, and arguably long before that.

Pavia is now 7-5 in his career as a starter against power-conference opponents, including New Mexico State’s memorable upset at Auburn in November 2023, probably the biggest reason Vanderbilt took a chance on him in the first place. His team was not favored to win one of those games – in fact, he’s been a double-digit underdog in 5 of the 7 wins. This is still an outfit that’s going to have to pull a series of upsets to get anywhere in the SEC standings. (And let’s be real, this edition of Virginia Tech would be the undisputed doormat of the SEC.) But we’re talking about plausible upsets now, not monumental stunners to snap a historic losing streak. And the more we see, the more plausible they get.
– – –
Last week: 7

5. Taylen Green, Arkansas

Green is off to a great start statistically: No. 1 in the SEC in touchdowns, pass efficiency, Total QBR and EPA; No. 2 in total offense. He still looks like prime Kaepernick on the hoof, capable of going the distance or hurdling a dude on any given play at 6-6, 224 pounds. It’s tempting to imagine him finally putting it all together in conference play and turning the Razorbacks into dark-horse Playoff contenders. But we still do have to imagine it, because running up the score on the likes of Alabama A&M and Arkansas State only counts for so much. It gets real this weekend at Ole Miss, in one of the SEC’s sneaky good rivalries.
– – –
Last week: 6

6. Arch Manning, Texas

After a week of relentless scrutiny, Texas got off to a nervous start against San José State. A big gain on the first play of the game was wiped out by a holding penalty; Manning’s first attempt was a badly overthrown deep ball; the Longhorns’ next series ended with a flat-out drop on 3rd down. The home crowd in Austin was palpably on edge. It didn’t last: Manning hit paydirt on the 3rd series on an 83-yard touchdown pass to his new favorite target, a wide-open Parker Livingstone, and the entire state collectively exhaled. (I live in Texas, a huge whoosh rattled my windows about the moment Livingstone crossed the goal line.) Meanwhile, the defense made the offense’s life as easy as possible by forcing turnovers on each of SJSU’s next 3 possessions. The ‘Horns turned all 3 takeaways into short-field touchdowns — a net of 28 points in a little under 5 minutes.
– – –
Last week: 5

7. DJ Lagway, Florida

Once you tally up the untimely penalties, multiple drops, costly bloopers, dubious clock management and outright stupidity in Florida’s 18-16 loss to USF, Lagway looks like the least of the Gators’ problems. So many discreet events had to go wrong to arrive at that result that his worst play – an air-mail interception in the 3rd quarter that effectively served as a punt, and which USF didn’t come close to converting into points – barely even makes the list.

But if Lagway wasn’t the source of the Gators’ angst, he wasn’t the solution, either. All things considered, conditions were about as favorable on Saturday as they’re likely to be for the rest of the season. He was exceedingly well-protected, facing pressure on just 3 of his 38 drop-backs, per PFF. He had run support courtesy sophomore workhorse Jaden Baugh (93 yards on 5.2 per carry), yielding a significant advantage in time of possession. The defense allowed 1 touchdown. Florida never trailed at any point before the clock hit triple zeroes. 

And yet: 16 points vs. a 17-point underdog from the AAC. Three extended drives in the first half all ended in field goals. The offense bogged down in the second half, going 3-and-out 3 times and never advancing beyond the USF 45-yard line; Florida’s only touchdown came as a result of a short field after a long punt return (made longer by a personal foul penalty against the Bulls) set up the offense at the USF 20. One one of those 3-and-outs was their last possession, on which Lagway threw 2 incomplete passes that stopped the clock when a first down might have iced the game. The Gators took over with a 2-point lead and 2:52 remaining, drained just 13 seconds before punting the ball away, and didn’t touch it again.

Even at the end, there were plenty of other targets for the locals’ wrath – freshman WR Vernell Brown III, who let a would-be dagger slip through his fingers on what turned out to be Florida’s last offensive snap; DL Brendan Bett, who singlehandedly extended the subsequent game-winning drive by hocking a loogie at a USF lineman with an official standing inches away; the defense in general for allowing the Bulls to march to the 2-yard line before lining up the decisive field goal, by that point a glorified PAT; and, of course, coach Billy Napier, who waited too long before futilely expending all 3 timeouts in the dying seconds.

Still, if this team has any chance of surviving a brutal stretch of games over the coming month, it needs more from its 5-star, face-of-the-program quarterback. Not counting the drop on his last attempt, Lagway was a pedestrian 3-for-10 on passes of 10+ air yards, generating none of the downfield sizzle that was the best part of his game in 2024 as a freshman. That version of Lagway gave Gators fans something to look forward to in the midst of a what was, until the end, a grim slog of a season. The version they saw on Saturday night looked ankle-deep in the murk. He might as well have been the guy they spent much of last year longing for him to replace, Graham Mertz.

That won’t cut it against the murderer’s row on deck, starting Saturday night in Death Valley. The margin for growing pains has run out. No more grading on a curve. It’s time for Napier’s prized prospect to start delivering on his promise – or else it’s going to be some other coach getting the credit when he finally does.
– – –
Last week: 4

8. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M

A&M’s wideouts underwhelmed in 2024. So the Aggies went out and got a couple new ones, adding Mario Craver (Mississippi State) and KC Concepcion (NC State) via the portal. So far, so good: Through 2 games against UT-San Antonio and Utah State, Reed and backup Miles O’Neill have targeted Craver and Concepcion a combined 29 times, completing 22 of them for 381 yards and 6 touchdowns. Craver, a true sophomore, already has 5 receptions of 20+ yards, just 2 fewer than A&M’s team leader in that category last year. (Current Georgia Bulldog Noah Thomas, with 7.) The degree of difficulty ramps up starting with this weekend’s trip to Notre Dame, but the Aggies could not have asked for a more encouraging start.
– – –
Last week: 8⬌

9. Beau Pribula, Missouri

Pribula is the biggest riser in this week’s rankings after lighting up the box score in a wild 42-31 win over “Border War” rival Kansas. In his first start against FBS competition, the Penn State transfer was dealing throughout, finishing 30/39 for 334 yards, 3 touchdowns and a viral reel full of dimes to show for it. Concerns that Pribula is more athlete than passer are rapidly receding.

Now, let’s be clear: The Jayhawks are more competitive these days than they were a few years ago, but mainly because of their offense; the defense allowed 28.6 points per game last year vs. Power 5 opponents and ranked 114th in pass efficiency defense. The secondary remains a fire hazard. Pribula’s first SEC start, against South Carolina, is still 2 weeks away following this weekend’s date against Louisiana. In the meantime, all lights are (tentatively) green.
– – –
Last week: 14

10. Jackson Arnold, Auburn

After impressing with his legs in the opener, Arnold won with his arm in Week 2, connecting on 24-of-28 passes for 252 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 42-3 thumping of Ball State. The Tigers are ranked this week (24th) for the first time since blowing a 28-3 lead to Mississippi State in November 2021 – the beginning of the end of the Bryan Harsin administration. They should be next week, too, following another nonconference tune-up against South Alabama. Arnold’s return to Oklahoma on Sept. 20 is already blinking red on the calendar.
– – –
Last week: 10⬌

11. Ty Simpson, Alabama

Simpson was flawless in Bama’s 73-0 massacre of UL-Monroe, which it bears pointing out — and I cannot stress this enough — is UL-Monroe. Still: No matter who’s on the other side of the line, 17-for-17 passing for 226 yards and 3 touchdowns is a gold-star performance. In Simpson’s case, it was also a convincing rebound from his dismal debut as a starter at Florida State. (Credit to his o-line, as well, which earned even worse reviews in Tallahassee but kept Simpson completely clean on Saturday. Amazing the revelations that come from a consistently clean pocket.) He called it a night at halftime with the Crimson Tide leading 42-0, after which backups Austin Mack and Keelon Russell combined to go 12-for-16 with 4 touchdowns in garbage time. All of the above is dust in the wind as of opening kickoff against Wisconsin.
– – –
Last week: 13

12. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee

Vols fans are enjoying a nice round of schadenfreude at the expense of their ex, Nico Iamaleava, who has presided over an 0-2 start at UCLA in which the Bruins have been outscored by a combined 30 points in losses to Utah and UNLV. Meanwhile, Aguilar — who transferred to UCLA from Appalachian State over the winter with the intention of starting for the Bruins before Iamaleava’s unexpected arrival over the summer bumped him from the top of the depth chart — is loving life in Knoxville following comfortable wins over Syracuse and East Tennessee State. It’s all wine and roses when the new guy is 2-0.

Of course, if the situations were reversed, Tennessee would still be a perfectly content 2-0 right now with Iamaleava, and UCLA would very likely still be a deflated 0-2 with Aguilar. (For what it’s worth, while Aguilar is predictably faring better in the conventional stats, the one accessible QB metric that adjusts for strength of schedule, ESPN’s Total QBR, currently has them separated by a rounding error; Aguilar ranks 45th nationally, while Iamaleava comes in at 48th.) Certainly nobody in Knoxville was ever going to grade Nico by whether he was good enough to win comfortably against Syracuse and ETSU. Let’s check back in with the locals’ thoughts on Aguilar after this weekend’s SEC opener against rival Georgia.
– – –
Last week: 11

13. Gunner Stockton, Georgia

Stockton is every bit the wild card going into Week 3 as Aguilar. I tried to read the box score of Georgia’s 28-3 win over Austin Peay, but the numbers evaporated from the screen before my brain could register them. We’ll have a much firmer impression after Saturday.
– – –
Last week: 9

14. Blake Shapen, Mississippi State

I’m not sure what if anything else Shapen is going to accomplish as the Bulldogs’ starter before yielding the job to one of his touted backups, but I think it’s safe to say it’s not going to top the high drama of Saturday’s 24-20 upset over the defending Big 12 champ, Arizona State.

If there’s more where that came from, the nearest cardiac ward better be on standby like that one episode of The Pitt.
– – –
Last week: 15

15. Austin Simmons, Ole Miss

Simmons is a keeper, clearly, but his first season as QB1 is shaping up as a walk on the wild side. The good, so far: Explosive plays. He’s averaging 17.5 yards per completion, 3rd-best nationally and nearly 3 full yards better than any other SEC starter. The not-so-good: Accuracy and ball security, especially under pressure. Simmons’ 60% completion rate is well below the curve, and he’s served up multiple picks in both of Ole Miss’ wins over Georgia State and Kentucky. (He fumbled in both games, as well, although he’s yet to lose one.) That’s a lot of sophomore to work out of his system.

In fairness, part of the blame for both of Simmons’ interceptions in the Rebels’ 30-23 win at Kentucky also falls on his center, Brycen Sanders. On the first pick, Sanders dribbled the snap at his quarterback’s feet, forcing Simmons to drop his eyes, gather the ball off the turf, and lose track of UK safety Ty Bryant in the process.

On the 2nd pick — an obvious passing down, tellingly — Sanders was beaten instantly at the snap by Kentucky DT David Gusta, whose arrival in Simmons’ lap forced the equivalent of a pop fly to centerfield.

Both INTs came in the opening quarter; Kentucky capitalized on both to put Ole Miss in a 10-0 hole early in the 2nd. Simmons settled down after that, finishing 10-for-15 for 118 yards the rest of the way and running for the go-ahead (ultimately winning) touchdown late in the 3rd. Though even the positives could be a little hair-raising. Like the crucial 4th-and-1 completion that followed the 2nd pick, on which Simmons checked off an open receiver streaking down the hash marks in favor of a No! No! Yes! ball to the sideline.

That play gained 55 yards, set up Ole Miss’ first touchdown, and turned the tide of the game. Here’s guessing Lane Kiffin could live with his young QB never making that particular decision again.
– – –
Last week: 12

16. Zach Calzada, Kentucky

Calzada is day-to-day this week nursing a sore shoulder. (Right there with you, Zach.) Even at full health, though, his status for Week 3 against Eastern Michigan would still be TBD. Through 2 games, he’s averaging a limp 4.4 yards per attempt without a touchdown. In particular, he’s posed little threat throwing beyond the sticks, connecting on just 3-of-22 attempts of 10+ air yards. Before his injury against Ole Miss, it was borderline inexcusable that the Wildcats called on Calzada to put the ball in the air 30 times with RBs Seth McGowan and Dante Dowdell averaging north of 5 yards per carry in a competitive game.

Either way, then, his days as QB1 might be numbered. Next man up is Cutter Boley, a redshirt freshman who can only be described at this stage of his career as “tall.” He did get some meaningful reps at the tail end of 2024 in losses to Texas and Louisville (his first career start), and Mark Stoops told reporters this week that Boley will play in some capacity against EMU whether Calzada does or not. The writing is on the wall.
– – –
Last week: 16⬌

• • •

The post SEC QB Rankings, Week 3: Can DJ Lagway rescue Billy Napier and Florida … again? appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Him Mateer-ial

It was early in the 3rd quarter. Oklahoma ball at midfield. OU led, 14-7, but the momentum had shifted to Michigan following a 75-yard touchdown run by the Wolverines’ Justice Haynes on the first play after halftime. The Sooners faced 3rd-and-8, seeking to avoid their second consecutive 3-and-out to start the half. The capacity crowd in Memorial Stadium was on its feet, as it had been since well before kickoff, and uneasy. John Mateer received the snap, and before he could even finish his initial drop, the play was a disaster in the making: Fooled by Michigan’s pressure look, Oklahoma’s protection (in particular running back Jovantae Barnes) failed to shore up its right flank, leaving blitzing safety Brandyn Hillman with a free run at the quarterback.

Untouched, Hillman closed in for what by all rights should be a drive-killing sack. Instead, Mateer deftly glided out of the bullseye, into the pocket — the rest of which had held up, to his o-line’s credit — and out of Hillman’s grasp, not only managing to break his attempt at an arm tackle but using it as a kind of slingshot into open grass. Harried but alert, Mateer reoriented himself on the fly, scanned downfield, and casually let rip his first wow throw as a Sooner, an ad-libbed, 40-yard dime down the Oklahoma sideline to a streaking Isaiah Sategna.

Two plays later, Mateer was in the end zone on his 2nd rushing touchdown of the night to extend OU’s lead to 21-7, after which the outcome was never seriously in doubt again. The Sooners survived a muffed punt and a missed field goal down the stretch to win comfortably, 24-13, in a game they desperately had to have to set the tone for their season — that is, to distinguish it as early and emphatically as possible from the last one.

For the locals, the moment was a long time coming. Murmurs about the 2025 quarterback situation began as early as last October, amid a wholesale offensive collapse. Oklahoma had bet the farm on prized recruit Jackson Arnold, a former 5-star in the 2023 class alongside Arch Manning and Nico Iamaleava, going so far as to let incumbent starter Dillon Gabriel walk with a year of eligibility remaining in order to clear Arnold’s path to the top of the depth chart as a sophomore. But Arnold crashed and burned as QB1, quickly playing his way onto the bench in his first high-profile home start against Tennessee; by the time he was reinstated a month later, the Sooners were on a historically miserable pace under an interim offensive coordinator, the toughest part of the schedule still in front of them. Arnold, who ended the season ranked dead last among SEC starters in pass efficiency and Total QBR, played out the stretch with one foot out the door.

When Mateer emerged from the portal last winter, as far as Sooners fans were concerned, he was little more than a name orbited by a constellation of statistics. If the name was unfamiliar, at least the numbers were good. At Washington State, Mateer spent his first 2 years on campus biding his time behind future No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward. In his only season as a starter at Wazzu, he filled the void left by Ward’s transfer to Miami and reshaped it around his own game, finishing in the top 10 nationally in total touchdowns (1st), total offense (4th), pass efficiency (8th) and EPA (7th). He was the only FBS player in 2024 with 3,000 yards passing and 1,000 rushing (excluding sacks). He arrived in Oklahoma in January as part of a package deal with his precocious Wazzu offensive coordinator, 29-year-old Ben Arbuckle, and with an NIL package that reportedly matched Arbuckle’s salary. Dark-horse Heisman buzz followed from outlets whose criteria for filling out the preseason leaderboard begin and end with “starting quarterback at Oklahoma.”

That’s the version of Mateer Sooners fans were sold for the previous 9 months — one that existed more or less entirely on paper. Even for the ones willing to buy the hype sight unseen, they had no way of knowing exactly what they were getting IRL. After all, the last guy had no shortage of preseason hype himself. By comparison, Mateer was a relatively marginal recruit with only 2 FBS scholarship offers out of high school, and he’d faced mostly marginal competition in his lone season in the saddle at Washington State. The Cougars played essentially an independent schedule in 2024 after being abandoned by the rest of the Pac-12 in the last round of conference realignment. Oklahoma in 2025 was starting down arguably the most brutal schedule in the country, beginning with Michigan.

Not only the season is riding on this guy, but the fate of the Brent Venables administration after overseeing 2 losing seasons in Venables’ first 3 years as head coach. Does his size translate to the SEC crucible? His arm strength? His mobility? On a field full of 4- and 5-star specimen, is he an athlete, or an overachieving gym rat out of his weight class? Can he keep his composure and make plays under duress from a blue-chip pass rush?

As of Saturday night, all of those boxes have been checked and all lights are green as the SEC gauntlet looms. Already, Mateer accounted for more total yards (344) and touchdowns (3) against Michigan than Oklahoma’s offense as a whole managed in any SEC game in 2024 in either category.

He accounted for 84% of the team’s total output, serving as a workhorse runner whose 19 carries matched OU’s three-man running back rotation combined. (Notably, all of those carries were designed runs, per Pro Football Focus; Mateer scrambled to buy time, not to tuck and run.) He passed the eye test under pressure. He was productive throwing to every level of the field, including 3-for-5 passing on attempts of 20+ air yards. He wasn’t perfect, by a long shot — see his lone interception, on which he air-mailed an open receiver from a clean pocket at the end of the first quarter — but in a game the defense had well in hand, he was who the Sooners were banking on him to be.

Meanwhile, the oddsmakers have dropped the “dark horse” part from Mateer’s burgeoning Heisman campaign, capitalizing on his primetime profile boost to bump his name onto the shortlist of Heisman favorites, for whatever it’s worth in early September. (Next to nothing, especially in a wide open year for the award, but ESPNBet lists his Heisman odds at +900 as of Monday, Sept. 8, if you’re so inclined.)

Personally, before I even start thinking about the H-word, I’d like to see him in less friendly confines; Oklahoma doesn’t leave him in SEC play until mid-October, for its annual rivalry date against Texas. The first true road game falls a week later, at South Carolina, followed by November trips to Tennessee and Alabama. There’s a long way to go, and no rest for the weary after midseason. Until then, the Sooners can rest a little easier knowing their big-ticket offseason investment is one big, reassuring step closer to paying off.

Florida: Hello, Hot Seat, my old friend

Do we really have to do this again?

Scrutinizing Billy Napier’s rapidly shrinking job security after each and every Florida loss was already tedious when we were doing it at this time last year — so much so that his boss had to go out of his way last November to affirm that Napier would be back in 2025 just to get everybody to shut up about it. From that point on, the Gators pulled off a pair of season-saving upsets over LSU and Ole Miss, whipped the ghost of Florida State, and won their bowl game to cap a stunning 4-game winning streak. This was a team with “momentum.” They returned face-of-the-program QB DJ Lagway and opened at No. 15 in the preseason AP poll. No one was talking about the hot seat! And now here we are again? Already?

It is possible to argue, in an of itself, that a 2-point loss to South Florida is not a job-killing catastrophe. The Bulls have a legit quarterback in Byrum Brown, beat the tar out of G5 standard-bearer Boise State on opening day, and now look like the clear frontrunners to claim the automatic G5 Playoff slot themselves. Are Florida fans buying any of that? They are not. They watched the game, and what they saw was not a talented upstart whose time has come. What they saw was their team repeatedly shooting itself in the foot.

Penalties plagued the Gators on Saturday — 11 for 103 yards in all, before we even get into the timing. In the first half, 2 apparent Florida touchdowns were wiped out by penalties on the same drive. Later, back-to-back penalties kick-started USF’s eventual game-winning drive in the closing minutes, including a brain-dead personal foul for spitting in a USF player’s face with an official just steps away. Elsewhere, miscues piled up. A high snap on a punt resulted in a safety (ultimately the difference in the final margin). Lagway struggled to connect downfield, no thanks to multiple drops by his receivers. The offense had some success moving the ball against USF, but its only touchdown came as a result of a short field following a punt return.

It’s no wonder that the prevailing emotion on Saturday was disgust. It’s also no wonder that, looking at the rest of the schedule, the prevailing emotion is futility. Florida’s next 3 games are against opponents currently ranked in the top 10 (LSU, Miami, Texas), the first 2 on the road. That stretch is followed by a trip to Texas A&M, the annual neutral-site date against Georgia, and a closing run against Ole Miss (in Oxford), Tennessee, and a resurgent Florida State. That’s 8 ranked opponents in the last 10 games that, if kickoff was this weekend, would almost certainly be favored over the Gators. And that’s assuming a couple of perfunctory wins over Mississippi State (in Gainesville) and Kentucky (in Lexington), which as the locals know are hardly automatic.

Sound familiar? It’s verbatim the outlook after Florida’s depressing, 1-2 start in 2024, only with the order and locations of the upcoming games switched and no quarterback controversy to distract from the rest of the team. If you’re feeling generous, you might point out that Napier survived that gauntlet once already with his job intact, and there’s no reason the same team can’t do it again. On the other hand, you might point out that Napier dodged a bullet with his name on it last year, and he can’t keep dodging them forever. A month from now, the Gators could very easily be staring down the barrel of a 1-5 start. If it comes to that, there won’t be much left to argue.

Hail State (of chaos)

For obvious reasons, the defining highlight of Mississippi State’s wild, 24-20 upset over Arizona State was the game-winning, 58-yard touchdown heave from MSU QB Blake Shapen to WR Brenen Thompson with less than a minute to play. They’ll be replaying that one on the hype video in Davis Wade Stadium for years to come. But the turning point was the goal line stand by Mississippi State’s defense — a unit that stank out loud in 2024 — that immediately preceded it.

Earlier in the second half, Arizona State had already marched down the field on an 8-play, 75-yard touchdown drive that didn’t feature a single pass. Midway through the 4th quarter, score tied 17-17, the Sun Devils embarked on an even more epic march, this one ultimately covering 95 yards in 17 plays — again, all but 1 of them runs. This time, though, the Bulldogs held when they had to, stuffing the Devils on 3 consecutive runs inside the MSU 3-yard line with less than 2 minutes to play. Facing 4th-and-goal at the 1, ASU coach Kenny Dillingham blinked and sent out his kicker. An easy field goal put Arizona State in front, 20-17, but left 1:38 for Mississippi State to do … well, you know. The 4 points Dillingham left on the field with his decision to kick instead of going for it (or pinning MSU’s offense at its own half-yard line if the 4th-down attempt failed) turned out to be the difference in a loss that will potentially haunt the Devils if they wind up on the CFP bubble.

Now, is it worth making hay over the fact that the reigning Big 12 champs bit the dust against an outfit still riding a 12-game SEC losing streak? If you’re a committed SEC supremacist, sure, go ahead. Me, I’m chalking this one up to good old randomness. Given the strangeness of the game and Starkville’s reputation as a kind of Bermuda Triangle, the only thing I’m taking away from the Bulldogs’ big win is this: Mississippi State is a live chaos agent that is going to ruin another ranked team’s season sooner rather than later. They’re going to have plenty of chances.

Enter Sandman? Vandy opens a can

The first half of Vanderbilt’s 44-20 win at Virginia Tech was standard Vandy: The defense allowed multiple extended scoring drives; the offense committed multiple turnovers; the ‘Dores trailed at halftime, 20-10. The second half must rank among the most straight-up dominant half-hours of Vandy football in … well, let’s just say a long time. If you were some unfortunate old-timer who has somehow endured the futility of the past, say, 50 years, you’d be well-acquainted with being on the business end of some truly ghastly box scores. You probably wouldn’t be able to recall many, or perhaps any against an ostensibly competitive opponent, that looked like this:

Thirty-four unanswered points. Five possessions on offense, 5 touchdowns. (The last one overseen by the backup quarterback while the starter chilled on the sideline.) Five possessions on defense yielded 3 consecutive 3-and-outs, a 4-and-out, and a turnover following Virginia Tech’s lone first down of the half, in the final minute of garbage time. By that point, Lane Stadium was mostly empty, the home crowd having already streamed out en masse in disgust. Our hypothetical ‘Dores diehard has witnessed his fair share of upsets over the years, sure, including much more dramatic ones than this. (Vanderbilt was a mere 1.5-point underdog on Saturday, effectively a toss-up.) But when is the last time he watched Vandy literally run the other team out of its own stadium?

The hater economy dictates that, if this wasn’t a devoted SEC space, no doubt I’d be writing an obituary for Hokies’ head coach Brent Pry, now 16-23 in Year 4 with no light at the end of the tunnel. Granted, the forecast in Blacksburg is as bleak as ever. On the other side of the coin, though, Vanderbilt’s trajectory since Clark Lea‘s narrow escape from the gallows a year ago is all the more remarkable by comparison. Last year’s opening-day win over over Virginia Tech in Nashville was a legitimate stunner decided in overtime, a plucky, feel-good effort by an outfit with a 3-33 record vs. Power 5 opponents over the previous 5 years. A year later, essentially the same team administered an across-the-board beatdown for its 6th win over a power conference opponent in its past 11 tries.

Nor was it one reducible to QB Diego Pavia getting excessively turnt. Pavia was his usual efficient self on Saturday, accounting for 254 total yards, 2 touchdowns and a stellar 88.7 QBR. But the difference between another forgettable win over a mediocre opponent and an emphatic one was a team effort in all phases. The o-line kept Pavia clean, allowing 2 pressures on 19 drop-backs; running backs Makhilyn Young and Sedrick Alexander went off for a combined 168 yards on 9.3 per carry; the wideouts made plays; the defense as a whole turned in easily its best performance of Lea’s tenure. Even including the competitive first half, the Commodores outgained the Hokies by a nearly 2-to-1 margin overall (490 yards to 248) and by nearly 4.5 yards per play — on paper, their best outing on both sides of the ball since well before the pandemic. The 24-point margin of victory was Vandy’s largest in a true road game since a 55-21 thumping of Wake Forest in November 2012, under coach James Franklin.

One sign of just how far Lea’s rebuilding effort has come is that, as far as the rest of the country was concerned, turning a raucous road environment into a graveyard in the span of a few minutes wasn’t worth getting too worked up about. No one bothered with the patronizing “good for you Vandy!” routine. Frankly, no one seemed to notice: Vanderbilt earned a single vote in the updated AP poll, in keeping with the consensus that the second-half rout said more about the side getting routed than it did about the one doing the routing. (It didn’t help that, for voters just glancing at the result, the final score obscured just how lopsided it was in the end.) Maybe the hive mind is right; maybe this is just an example of the 13th or 14th-best team in the SEC just being that much better than the 13th or 14th-best team in the ACC. We’ll find out this weekend in the conference opener at South Carolina, where the Gamecocks opened as 5.5-point favorites at ESPNBet. Beyond that, with the possible exception of a November visit from Kentucky, Vandy still projects as an underdog in every game.

But then, that distinction keeps counting for less and less. If nothing else, the ‘Dores have every reason to expect to be competitive on a weekly basis, and you can see in the narrow point spread at South Carolina that the oddsmakers are starting to expect it, too. And if it wasn’t already, it’s officially safe to say they’re done with doormat duty until further notice.

Dude of the Week: Cashius Howell

Howell played just 29 snaps in Texas A&M’s 44-22 win over Utah State, and rushed the passer on just 15 of them. But he only needed 3 to accomplish a full day’s work:

There’s an old saying in journalism: 2 is a coincidence, 3 is a trend. Cashius Howell wrecking opposing backfields is most definitely a trend.

Goat of the Week: Brendan Bett

Dan Mullen’s demise at Florida was set into motion by a player who picked the worst possible moment to throw a shoe. For Billy Napier, the beginning of the end could be Bett’s decision to hock a loogie in the face of a USF lineman within literal spitting distance of an official.

Egregious as it was, it’s hard to argue that the Bulls’ game-winning drive hinged on this penalty or likely would have unfolded differently otherwise. (Unlike the infamous shoe toss, which pointlessly gave LSU a fresh set of downs following a 3rd-down stop, Bett’s gaffe came on first down. And a free 15 yards ultimately did not mean much when it came down to a chip-shot field goal snapped from the UF 2-yard line.) But as a symbol of the Gators’ larger dysfunction and lack of discipline with the game on the line, its role in the outcome was unmistakable.

Notebook

1.) Coming off a week of scrutiny following its opening-day loss at Ohio State, Texas got off to another nervous start offensively against San José State: A big gain on the first play of the game was wiped out by a holding penalty; Arch Manning‘s first attempt was a badly overthrown deep ball; the Longhorns’ next series ended with a flat-out drop on 3rd down. The home crowd in Austin was palpably on edge. Of course, the nerves didn’t last. Manning got untracked on an 83-yard touchdown pass to his new favorite target, Parker Livingstone, while the defense made the offense’s life as easy as possible by forcing turnovers on each of SJSU’s next 3 possessions. The ‘Horns turned all 3 takeaways into short-field touchdowns — a net of 28 points in a little under 5 minutes.

2.) This week’s Catch of the Year of the Week goes to San José State’s Leland Smith, whose high-rising effort at the expense of Texas’ Kobe Black was not respected by the officials upon further review but certainly is here at MDS on principle. One of our highest principles, in fact: Too Cool to Overturn.

The decision to rule the pass incomplete on a technicality (Smith didn’t fully possess the ball until part of his torso had skidded across the chalk) had no effect on the outcome, only of robbing Smith of what was rightfully his. The only thing wrong with this catch and ones like it is that every time a dude comes down with one people keep defaulting to David Tyree in the Super Bowl as their point of reference. Real ones remember the true originator of the modern helmet catch: Tyrone Prothro.

3.) Ole Miss has a keeper in talented sophomore QB Austin Simmons, but he’s got a lot of sophomore to work out. He air-mailed a pair of interceptions in the Rebels’ 30-23 win at Kentucky, and even one of his biggest plays — a crucial 4th-down completion that set up Ole Miss’ first touchdown — was accompanied by a chorus of the entire fan base shouting No! No! Yes!

4.) Every aspect of Missouri’s offense was firing on all cylinders in a wild, 42-31 win over Kansas, but a special nod is order for the Tigers’ thunder-and-lightning running back combo of Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts. Hardy, a much-anticipated transfer from UL-Monroe, did most of the dirty work, grinding out 111 yards on 4.4 per carry; his 12 missed tackles forced against the Jayhawks tied for the most of any FBS back in Week 2, per PFF. Roberts got less work, logging 13 carries, but made the most of them, averaging 11.0 yards per pop with a 63-yard dagger in the 4th quarter to put the win on ice.

Moment of Zen

The post Monday Down South: Oklahoma bought the hype. John Mateer’s first magic trick as a Sooner made it real appeared first on Saturday Down South.

Game of the Week: Michigan at Oklahoma (-5.5)

The stakes: In some respects, the 2025 versions of Michigan and Oklahoma are a lot alike. Both teams are name-brand powers coming off mediocre campaigns in 2024 defined by a total collapse on offense. Both teams overhauled their respective attacks with new coordinators, big-ticket additions at quarterback, and key transfers at the skill positions. Both teams have returned to the polls and are tentatively optimistic after routine wins over speed-bump competition in Week 1. The winner on Saturday night is inevitably going to bed with visions of a Playoff run dancing in their head.

In terms of urgency, though, make no mistake: This one just means more for Oklahoma. Not that Michigan isn’t duly invested in winning, as ever. But the Sooners need to win, in a way that Wolverines fans — still coasting on the emotional climax of their national title run in 2023 — should be able to appreciate. Michigan, championship itch scratched, winning streak over Ohio State still intact, has the luxury of patience: With its second-year head coach, Sherrone Moore, who bought himself a couple of extra miles’ worth of runway in Year 1 with season-ending upsets over OSU and Alabama; with its massively hyped freshman quarterback, Bryce Underwood, who became the face of the program the moment he flipped his commitment from LSU last November; and with a remarkably friendly schedule that, after Saturday, doesn’t feature another currently-ranked opponent until the annual rivalry date with the Buckeyes. Win or lose in Norman, the Wolverines are gonna be alright.

Oklahoma is feeling the crunch. The program’s national championship drought is 25 years old, second-longest among schools that have won a title in the BCS/CFP era only to Tennessee. Coach Brent Venables, hired to bring a harder edge to a program that kept topping out in the CFP semifinals under Lincoln Riley, is squarely on the hot seat after overseeing losing records in 2 of his first 3 seasons. The Sooners invested not only in a new quarterback, Washington State transfer John Mateer, but also in his OC at Wazzu, Ben Arbuckle, to meet demands for a quick fix. After Saturday, the schedule only gets steeper, ending with seven consecutive games against teams that are currently ranked (Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, LSU) or finished ranked in 2024 (Missouri). OU was a combined 1-6 against those teams last year, all but one of the losses coming by double digits.

The home crowd on Saturday night is going to be amped, especially following a visit from College GameDay to kick off the proceedings. They’re overdue for a reminder of what it feels like to root for a winner. The absolute last thing the Sooners need this early on the calendar is to inspire a collective groan of “here we go again.”

The stat: 2,825 yards

That was the combined passing output by Michigan and Oklahoma in 2024 in 20 games vs. Power 5 conference competition, an average of a dismal 141.3 yards per game. Out of 68 power-conferences teams (including Notre Dame), the Wolverines and Sooners ranked 66th and 67th in passing yards, respectively, ahead of only Iowa — and only then because the Hawkeyes put the ball in the air significantly less often. Between them, OU and Michigan started 5 different quarterbacks and eclipsed 200 passing yards vs. Power 5 opponents just 3 times, all in double-digit losses.

Already this year, Week 1 passing output by both Mateer (392 yards) and Underwood (251) in their respective debuts was more than either team managed through the air in any game in ’24.

The big question: Which quarterback is ready for his closeup?

Underwood is as touted as they come: The No. 1 prospect in the ’25 class at any position, he was the subject of a full-court-press recruiting process that culminated in a 4-year, $12.5 million NIL deal underwritten by aspiring billionaire oligarch Larry Ellison, whose wife is a Michigan alum. (Typically I would warn against taking any NIL figures at face value, but in this case the number has been widely reported, including in the university’s own Journal of Economics.) At 6-4, 228 pounds, Underwood instantly sets off the freak siren, inspiring comparisons to Vince freakin’ Young and Cam freakin’ Newton before he’s faced a serious opponent. In his first game, he was a perfectly cromulent 21-for-31 passing for 251 yards, 1 touchdown and no turnovers in a 34-17 win over New Mexico, operating a conservative game plan that didn’t call for him to log a single carry as a runner.

The 6-1, 224-pound Mateer comes from the opposite end of the hype spectrum. His last school, Washington State, was 1 of only 2 FBS teams to offer him a scholarship out of high school, along with New Mexico State. At Wazzu, he backed up future No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward for 2 years before piloting the Cougars’ offense to 36.6 points per game in 2024 in his first turn as a starter. A dual threat, he was the only FBS quarterback last year to eclipse 3,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing (excluding sacks), and his 44 total touchdowns led the nation. With numbers like that, dwelling on his marginal measurables or the mostly marginal competition he faced in Pullman was a luxury a team as desperate for an upgrade behind center as Oklahoma could not afford.

Setting aside the competition, Mateer’s debut as a Sooner against Illinois State was all the locals could have asked for: 30-for-37 passing, 389 yards, 3 touchdowns, plus a 4th TD rushing. Based on his ’24 output at Washington State, that’s about par for the course against a bantamweight opponent. Michigan will not be the first power-conference defense he’s faced — at his last stop he led a pair of upset wins over Texas Tech and Washington — but it will be the best by some distance.

The key matchup: Oklahoma WRs Deion Burks/Keontez Lewis vs. Michigan CBs Jyaire Hill/Zeke Berry

Oklahoma’s wide receivers were a sore point in 2024, literally: At various points the entire preseason 2-deep was sidelined by injury, including the headliner, Burks, a Purdue transfer who led the wideouts in receptions (31), yards (245) and touchdowns (3) despite missing 7 games to assorted ailments. The inevitable offseason transfer haul added 5 new targets to the rotation, including Lewis, a 5th-year journeyman with previous stops at UCLA, Wisconsin, and Southern Illinois. Between them, Burks and Lewis played nearly every snap on the outside in Week 1, hauling in a combined 16 catches for 207 yards and all 3 of Mateer’s touchdowns.

Their opposite numbers in Michigan’s secondary, Hill and Berry, are in their second season as starters after earning good reviews last year in their first significant action. For what it’s worth, Hill in particular was a popular name on the “way too early” mock-draft circuit over the offseason, despite being just a redshirt sophomore with 2 years of eligibility remaining after this one. That kind of attention comes with the territory when you’re a returning starter at a premium position at a high-profile school. (At least when you’re listed at 6-2.) Saturday is his chance to begin turning the buzz into reality.

The verdict:

Don’t expect fireworks. The quarterbacks might be the most interesting thing about this matchup, by virtue of sheer wild-card intrigue, but these are still defensively-driven programs perfectly content to take any opportunity to slug it out. As a rule, a barely-18-year-old true freshman QB making his first road start opposite a Brent Venables defense is a doomed proposition, even when the QB in question is the second coming of (insert legend). Also as a rule, Michigan’s defense is one of the most bankable in the sport, even when replacing a pair of first-round picks on the interior d-line. It’s possible that Mateer and/or Underwood is about to break out in a big way on a national stage. More likely, it’s going to come down to who makes the routine plays, avoids the killer mistake, and hits the one or two clutch throws that move the needle when the game is on the line.

Prediction: Oklahoma 20 | • Michigan 16

South Florida at Florida (-17.5)

If you caught USF’s opener, a thorough, 34-7 thumping of G5 standard-bearer Boise State, you had to be impressed: This belonged to the category of upset where the ostensible underdog was visibly bigger, stronger, faster and more inspired. After falling behind 7-0, the Bulls ripped off 34 unanswered points, at one point scoring 3 rapid-fire touchdowns in a span of 10 minutes in the second half. Dual-threat QB Byrum Brown, coming off a season-ending injury in 2024, looked like a breakout star in the making, and that’s taking into account the fact his most impressive play was wiped out by a penalty.

All of which is to say, the Gators can’t afford to take this one for granted. USF’s roster includes 20 players with Power 5 experience, including a couple of all-conference-caliber starters, WR Chas Nimrod and DB De’Shawn Rucker, who followed head coach Alex Golesh from his previous stop as offensive coordinator at Tennessee. That should not be nearly enough to hold up for 60 minutes in The Swamp — USF’s roster ranks 61st according to 247Sports’ Team Talent Composite; Florida’s ranks 12th — but as an audition for the automatic G5 spot in the Playoff, the Bulls have a chance to make another strong impression even in defeat.

Prediction: Florida 34 | • South Florida 19

Ole Miss (-8.5) at Kentucky

Ole Miss was haunted by last year’s 20-17 loss to Kentucky in Oxford, a flop that ultimately cost the Rebels a spot in the Playoff. The Wildcats won that game the way they’ve won most games under Mark Stoops: By torturing the clock into submission. Moving with all the urgency of a horde of zombies on offense, the ‘Cats racked up a nearly two-to-one advantage in time of possession; on defense, they held Ole Miss to 1-for-10 on 3rd down and banked the game’s only turnover. Ole Miss’ 56 offensive snaps tied for the fewest in Lane Kiffin‘s tenure – and the Rebels still had a chance to send the game to overtime on a late field goal that sailed wide. 

Both lineups are very different this time around. But all of Kentucky’s offseason moves pointed toward a team as hellbent as ever on running the dang ball, and the opener, a 24-16 slugfest against Toledo, confirmed it: Transfer RBs Dante Dowdell and Seth McGowan ground out 207 yards on 32 carries, while 7th-year journeyman QB Zach Calzada struggled to complete passes beyond the line of scrimmage. (Calzada was a dismal 1-for-11 on attempts of 10+ air yards — the lone completion going for a gain of 11 — with 72 of the Wildcats’ 85 receiving yards coming after the catch.) It’s no secret that they want to grind the proceedings to a crawl. The only question is whether they can execute it two years in a row.

Prediction: • Ole Miss 26 | Kentucky 14

Arizona State (-6.5) at Mississippi State

Little did anyone realize at the time that Arizona State’s 30-23 win over Mississippi State a year ago was the first step in the Sun Devils’ improbable run to the Playoff. Then-unknown Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt was a non-factor in that game, finishing a pedestrian 10-of-20 passing for 69 yards in just his second career start. (Although Leavitt did score both of ASU’s offensive touchdowns as a runner.) Instead, the Devils leaned heavily on indestructible running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 297 scrimmage yards on 36 touches in an early entry on his All-American résumé.

For the rematch, a fully established Leavitt is earning Heisman buzz while Skattebo is competing for carries with the New York Giants. In Week 1, Leavitt accounted for 330 total yards and 4 touchdowns (2 passing, 2 rushing) in a 38-19 win over Northern Arizona. His top receiver, Jordyn Tyson, was on the receiving end for 141 yards and both touchdowns through the air. The setting this time around is more favorable to the Bulldogs, assuming Leavitt has never played in front of a chorus of cowbells; otherwise, they’re just trading one cause of death for another.

Prediction: • Arizona State 32 | Miss. State 23

Kansas at Missouri (-6.5)

This is the long-overdue resumption of one of the oldest and most underrated rivalries in the country: Missouri’s defection from the Big 12 to the SEC in 2012 ended a streak of 120 meetings between the schools over the previous 121 years, the only exception coming in 1918 due to World War I. (If you really want to take it back, you could argue the “Border War” is merely a thinly veiled extension of the literal border war between the two states that presaged the Civil War. In this essay, I will …) When it ended, Mizzou had taken 5 of the past 6 to pull ahead in the all-time series, although — as with any longstanding rivalry worth its salt — the schools disagree over the exact record.

As for the 2025 edition, Kansas is an interesting team. Based strictly on the standings, the Jayhawks flopped in 2024, following up a 9-4 finish in ’23 with a regression to 5-7. The difference on the field wasn’t nearly that obvious: Five of those seven losses were by a touchdown or less, and KU salvaged some dignity with a 3-game November winning streak over ranked opponents (Iowa State, BYU and Colorado). When healthy, 6th-year quarterback Jalon Daniels is an established playmaker with 35 career starts under his belt. The Jayhawks are not good, necessarily, but on any given Saturday they are the kind of team that is liable to ruin somebody’s season. The Tigers, a team with darkhorse CFP ambitions, should be on guard that it’s not theirs.

Prediction: • Missouri 36 | Kansas 27

Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech (-2.5)

Vandy’s overtime win over the Hokies last year in Nashville was the first sign that the ‘Dores were on to something with QB Diego Pavia. Pavia accounted for 294 total yards and 3 touchdowns in that game, including a game-tying TD pass at the end of regulation and what turned out to be the game-winning scramble in the extra session. Virginia Tech put up an respectable fight on defense in its opening-day loss to South Carolina, holding the Gamecocks to 10 points before allowing alien-grade WR Nyck Harbor to get behind them for a game-icing, 64-yard touchdown in the 4thquarter. But there is only one Nyck Harbor, and he doesn’t play for Vandy.

Prediction: • Virginia Tech 24 | Vanderbilt 20

UL-Monroe at Alabama (-34.5)

Any time ULM rolls into Tuscaloosa is an opportunity to reminisce about the Warhawks’ 2007 upset in Tuscaloosa, which for many years served as a kind of origin story for the Saban Death Star as well as the answer to the trivia question, “when was the last time Alabama lost to an unranked team?” Now that the Tide have lost 4 times to unranked teams in their past 10 games, it’s just another rapidly receding footnote from the era just before the gap between the sport’s Haves and Have Nots turned into a chasm. For Kalen DeBoer‘s sake, it had better keep on receding.

Prediction: • Alabama 49 | UL-Monroe 10

San José State at Texas (-36.5)

Texas has 3 weeks to reset Arch Manning‘s confidence to factory settings before its next big road test at Florida. A big part of that process will be getting in sync with his wideouts, who were MIA as a group in last week’s loss at Ohio State. Starters Ryan Wingo, DeAndre Moore and Parker Livingstone took virtually every WR rep in Columbus, but barely touched the ball until the Longhorns shifted into desperation mode. Altogether, that trio combined for 6 receptions (4 of them in the 4th quarter) on 16 targets, while the majority of Manning’s 17 completions were checkdowns to running backs and tight end Jack Endries.

True, Manning’s scattershot accuracy did his receivers no favors on the rare occasions they found a sliver of daylight against OSU’s secondary. But that goes both ways: Their inability to create separation made his job harder, too. Livingstone, the most unsung of the starters, made the play of the day on a 32-yard touchdown catch that finally got Texas on the board after more than 56 minutes. A few plays earlier, Wingo, the most-targeted of the bunch, finally came down with one on a 28-yard strike down the hashmarks to get the drive going. Otherwise, they might as well not have bothered showing up. 

So while the ‘Horns can no doubt pound the ball at will against San José State – last seen giving up 236 yards rushing in a 16-14 loss to Central Michigan – establishing some chemistry between blue-chip QB and blue-chip targets must be a priority. This is why you schedule the likes of SJSU, UTEP, and Sam Houston in the first place: To get everyone on the same page by the time the buses roll into the Swamp.

Prediction: Texas 41 | • San José State 7

Utah State at Texas A&M (-31.5)

Despite the final score, A&M came away from its 42-24 win over UT-San Antonio with some concerns. Chief among them: Stopping the run. UTSA’s Robert Henry Jr. made the Aggies’ front seven look like a nondescript outfit from the American Athletic Conference, gashing the Aggies for 177 yards on an alarming 11.1 per carry. Henry’s highlight reel included a 75-yard touchdown straight up the gut on the first play of the second half; a 15-yard TD run earlier in the game on which he cut against the grain and outraced the pursuit to the pylon; and 2 other carries that gained 20+ yards. Utah State’s top back, BYU transfer Miles Davis, is coming off a career-high 149 yards from scrimmage in a Week 1 win over UTEP. The last thing A&M needs ahead of a Week 3 trip to Notre Dame is another overachieving G5 back putting its defense in the blender.

Prediction: • Texas A&M 48 | Utah State 13

Louisiana Tech at LSU (-37.5)

LSU has won 35 straight vs. in-state opponents dating to a November 1982 loss to Tulane. Among the few competitive entries in that streak, you’ll find a 2009 date against Louisiana Tech in which the Bulldogs led 13-10 at halftime before ultimately falling short, 24-16. “Remember when we led at halftime” isn’t much of a rallying cry, but at this point it’s all the rest of the state has got.

Prediction: • LSU 44 | Louisiana Tech 6

Arkansas State at Arkansas (-22.5)

The Hogs are in little danger here against Butch Jones‘ group, but still should not sleep on Arkansas State’s pass-catch combo of Jaylen Raynor and Corey Rucker, the active FBS leader in career receptions (183), receiving yards (3,148) and receiving touchdowns (25). Raynor and Rucker only hooked up twice in the Red Wolves’ Week 1 win over Southeast Missouri State, but one of those connections went for 50 yards and the other was an acrobatic touchdown in the back corner of the end zone. If Arkansas’ offense needs a minute or two to get revved up, that duo is capable of causing some unpleasantness in the meantime.

Prediction: • Arkansas 42 | Arkansas State 17

Ball State at Auburn (-42.5)

Vibes are good at Auburn coming off a reassuring, 38-24 win at Baylor. But the glowing reviews for QB Jackson Arnold and the offense have tended to gloss over the defense giving up an FBS-worst 419 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air. Ball State is not going to come close to that number: The Cardinals managed just 87 passing yards on 16 attempts in Week 1 in a shutout loss at Purdue. But if an attack that looked that anemic against a Big Ten doormat does anything positive at all, the red flag remains up.

Prediction: Auburn 45 | • Ball State 7

Austin Peay at Georgia (n/a)

Point spreads are off for this week’s FCS tilts, eliminating the only reason anyone other than close blood relatives of the players has to tune in. Shoot, even some of the families probably need a little action to stay awake. If you can’t sweat out a nine-minute drive in garbage time featuring Austin Peay’s backup offense threatening to pull off a backdoor cover against Georgia’s fifth-string defense, what’s even the point?

Prediction: Georgia 52 | Austin Peay 0

East Tennessee State at Tennessee (n/a)

How concerned is Tennessee about its ailing cornerbacks? The headliner of the group, Jermod McCoy, has returned to practice coming off offseason rehab for a torn ACL, but remains TBD for live action. Meanwhile, the other returning starter on the outside, Rickey Gibson III, is on the shelf for “an extended period” after suffering an undisclosed injury in the first half of the Vols’ Week 1 win over Syracuse. In the starters’ absence, though, their understudies held up fine. Junior Colton Hood, a Colorado transfer who earned the start against ‘Cuse in place of McCoy, was the SEC co-Defensive Player of the Week after breaking up three passes and returning a fumble for a touchdown; and true freshman Ty Redmond was Tennessee’s highest-graded defender per PFF after filling in for Gibson. Against ETSU, it’s neither here nor there. Against Georgia in Week 3, McCoy’s status is going to loom large.

Prediction: Tennessee 59 | ETSU 3

South Carolina State at South Carolina (n/a)

South Carolina State is a respectable FCS outfit. Defending champs of the MEAC. But for some perspective on the sheer size of the talent gap in these matchups, consider that the Bulldogs’ top defensive tackle is listed at an improbable 5-9, 225 pounds – 6 inches shorter and 15 pounds lighter than South Carolina’s quarterback.

Prediction: South Carolina 56 | South Carolina State 3

Scoreboard

Week 1 Record: 13-3 straight-up | 7-9 vs. spread

The post SEC Week 2 Primer: Oklahoma went all-in its offense. Can it pass its first big test vs. Michigan? appeared first on Saturday Down South.

1. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Everyone loves a winner, and Nussmeier’s eye-of-the-beholder outing at Clemson looked a heck of a lot better in a 17-10 win than the exact same performance would have in another deflating opening-night loss. (See, for example, last year’s Week 1 heartbreaker against USC, where he was more productive to much worse reviews.) The real difference in Death Valley East was LSU’s defense, which had its best night in a game that matters in ages. For his part, Nussmeier was well-protected, went 7-for-10 for 95 yards on a pair of second-half touchdown drives, and otherwise didn’t do anything to screw it up. Under the circumstances — top-5 opponent, on the road, the defense finally holding up its end of the bargain — that’ll do.

As a result, Nussmeier shot to the top of the Heisman odds entering Week 2, though, in fairness, that had a lot to do with preseason Heisman betting favorite Arch Manning’s performance at Ohio State. More on that in a moment.

While we’re on the subject of eye test vs. box score, it’s worth pointing out that the latter would have been gotten a significant boost if Nussmeier’s best throw, a 29-yard, over-the-shoulder dime for an apparent go-ahead touchdown in the 3rd quarter, hadn’t been wiped out by the latest entry in America’s favorite ongoing metaphysical saga, Catch or Not a Catch?

Not a catch, somehow. Instead of a TD, the possession ended in a missed field goal. Even by the letter of the law, the verdict on that play ultimately boiled down to a judgment call as to whether WR Barion Brown “completed the act” on his way to the ground. The “rules analyst” on the live broadcast openly disagreed with the ruling overturning the catch, which almost never happens; during the review itself, the conversation never even broached the possibility of overturning the catch, only whether Brown had scored or drifted out of bounds at the half-yard line. Why does the sport continue to do this to itself? All borderline reviews that fail to achieve consensus should automatically default to the doctrine of “too cool to overturn.”
– – –
Last week: 3

2. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

South Carolina’s opening drive against Virginia Tech featured Sellers going 3-for-3 passing for 54 yards and gratuitously trucking a defender at the end of a 15-yard touchdown run, at which point you had to at least consider the possibility that this kid might never be stopped again. The feeling was short-lived: Carolina didn’t find the end zone again on offense until well into the 4th quarter, on a 64-yard heave from Sellers to extraterrestrial wideout Nyck Harbor that instantly erased the 2 uneasy hours between the opening possession and the dagger in a 24-11 win.

That was Sellers’ only attempt of 20+ air yards. Notably, he also had an apparent touchdown pass overturned on review earlier in the game due to Harbor bobbling the ball as he landed sprawling out of bounds, forcing the Gamecocks to settle for a field goal. Frankly, the fact that Harbor was prominently involved at all after being MIA far too often the past 2 years was as encouraging as whether he technically held onto the ball or not.
– – –
Last week: 2⬌

3. John Mateer | Oklahoma

They don’t pay me the big bucks to wax rhapsodic about a routine pantsing of Illinois State. Suffice to say, Mateer’s debut as a Sooner was all the locals could have asked for: 30-for-37 passing, 389 yards, 3 touchdowns, plus a 4th TD rushing. Based on his 2024 output at Washington State, that’s about par for the course against a bantamweight opponent. Next up: A prove-it date against Michigan that will tell us a whole lot more about what to expect the rest of the season.
– – –
Last week: 4

4. DJ Lagway | Florida

Lagway’s night against Long Island U. ended at halftime with Florida leading 38-0 and LIU’s offense having gained a single first down. (The fist play after the Sharks moved the sticks, they coughed up a fumble that the Gators returned for their first touchdown in an eventual 55-0 massacre.) Other than an absurd 1-handed catch by freshman Vernell Brown, there’s no reason to acknowledge any of the above ever happened. Next up: A real opponent, South Florida, coming off an emphatic upset of Boise State.
– – –
Last week: 5

5. Arch Manning | Texas

Manning’s first pass at Ohio State skipped off the turf well short of his intended receiver. His second pass was a minimal completion to a tight end, who was swarmed short of the sticks on third down. His third pass was a scramble-drill dump-off to a running back, who was also stopped short of the sticks on third down. Run that sequence on repeat, mix in a goal-line stand and an interception on one of Manning’s rare ventures downfield, and you’ve seen pretty much all there was to see over the first 3 quarters — the most anticlimactic debut since the Segway.

To Manning’s credit, that wasn’t the end of the story. At the start of the 4th quarter, he was a juiceless 9-for-15 passing for 38 yards and a single first down. His longest gain up to that point was courtesy of his legs, on a 15-yard scramble, besting his longest completion by 6 yards. He’d just followed up the failed goal-line series by serving up the aforementioned INT on his final attempt of the 3rd; by the time he got the ball back, Texas trailed 14-0 with zero momentum and time running out. Manning’s 4th-quarter highlight reel salvaged a scrap or two of dignity. After failing utterly to challenge the Buckeyes downfield for the majority of the afternoon, he connected on 3 completions of 25+ yards in comeback mode, including a gotta-have-it, 32-yard touchdown strike on 3rd-and-10 that briefly revived the Longhorns’ fortunes in the closing minutes, as well as a beauty of a throw from deep in his own territory that split the cornerback and safety in a Cover 2 look. If nothing else, at least in those moments it was possible to see what scouts who anointed him the No. 1 recruit in his class and a future No. 1 overall saw beyond his last name.